The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing

Exports Opportunity for India

Propelled by growth in priority sectors and driven
by favourable megatrends, India’s manufacturing
sector has opened itself into new geographies
and segments.

By Deepak Jain, Sushil Pasricha, Sambit Patra

Authors and acknowledgements

Deepak Jain is a partner in Bain & Company’s New Delhi office. He leads the Advanced Manufacturing &
Services practice in the Asia-Pacific region.

Sushil Pasricha is an expert partner in Bain & Company’s New Delhi office. He is an active contributor
to the Performance Improvement, Advanced Manufacturing & Services, and Healthcare practices.

Sambit Patra is a partner in Bain & Company’s Mumbai office. He is a leader in the Performance
Improvement practice in India, as well as an active member of the Advanced Manufacturing & Services
and Energy & Natural Resources practices.

The authors would like to thank Raghurraman Balasubramanian, Jitendra Nayak, Gopal Bhardwaj,
and Nitin Gupta for their contributions and analytic support in the development of this report.

Copyright © 2022 Bain & Company, Inc. All rights reserved.

 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

At a Glance

India’s manufacturing exports have traditionally grown between 5% and 10% pre–Covid-19
years, but exports have seen tremendous growth over the last two years, with a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%. India has reached $418 billion of manufacturing exports
in fiscal year 2022 (FY22).

India’s export growth has been propelled by six megatrends that got fast-tracked during the last
two years, driving overall export attractiveness for multiple sectors in India. The six megatrends
are supply chain diversification, advantages for India in certain manufacturing sectors, government
initiatives to bolster manufacturing in the country, capital expenditure infusion into manufacturing
sectors, heightened merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, and private equity/venture capital
(PE/VC)-led investment in manufacturing.

Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, electronics, automotive, industrial machinery, and textiles (among

others) are expected to propel manufacturing exports to reach $1 trillion by FY28.

To capitalise on this opportunity, Indian companies should focus on having a clear export strategy,
the right execution chops, the right partnerships for enabling exports, and an optimal capital
expenditure (capex) efficiency focus to build manufacturing capacity.

India is on the cusp of structural shifts in the manufacturing sector. Despite having the sixth-largest
economy in the world, contributing to 3.1% of the GDP (see Figure 1), India’s export contribution to global
trade is only 1.6%. That is going to change, buoyed by the government’s robust policy thrust, initiatives
like production-linked incentives (PLIs) to encourage local manufacturing, and fresh investments that
are pouring into the country’s core industrial sectors. As India emerges as a hub for manufacturing
exports, cutting-edge technology and best-in-class workforce are being deployed in the country’s
manufacturing domain, giving further impetus to India’s strengths on cost efficiency. Manufacturing
is emerging as an integral pillar in the country’s economic growth, thanks to the performance of key
sectors like automotive, engineering, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and consumer durables.

The positive developments in the manufacturing sector, driven by production capacity expansion,
government policy support, heightened M&A activity, and PE/VC-led investment, are creating a robust
pipeline for the country’s sustained economic growth in the years to come. India is now the sixth-
largest manufacturing economy in the world, and with a high impetus on supply chain diversification,
leading global players are setting up their manufacturing bases in the country. Despite possible
recessionary and inflationary pressure, fundamentals for India’s manufacturing sector remain strong.
The mega-trends will continue to play out during the course of this decade which will accelerate
India’s manufacturing-led exports.

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 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

Figure 1: Despite being the sixth-largest economy in the world and contributing 3.1% to the world
GDP, India’s export contribution to global trade is only 1.6%

2020 export ($B) Total = $17,266B

5,390 2,213 6,261 1,387 2,015

100% Brazil
Thailand Denmark
Hong Kong Switzerland
Germany Malaysia Hungary
80 Australia Czech
Poland
India Republic
Vietnam Others
South Korea Spain Sweden
60 USA United Arab Emirates
Russia Austria
Taiwan
Netherlands Singapore Indonesia
40 Canada
United Kingdom Turkey Qatar
Argentina
Mexico Portugal
China Philippines
20 Saudi Finland
Belgium Arabia Romania
Japan Chile
France Norway
Ireland South Africa
Italy Slovakia
0
> $1T $500B to $1T $200B to $500B $100B to $200B < $100B

Country US China Japan Germany UK India

% of world exports 8.3% 15% 3.7% 7.9% 2.3% 1.6%
% of world GDP 24.6% 17.3% 6.0% 4.5% 3.2% 3.1%
Countries with export > 90% of GDP Countries with export 50% to 90% of GDP
Countries with export 20% to 50% of GDP Countries with export 10% to 20% of GDP

Note: T–Trillion; B–Billion

Sources: Euromonitor; World Bank; Bain analysis

Can India sustain the recent exports surge over the next decade?

India’s manufacturing exports for FY21–22 reached an unprecedented $418 billion, an overall growth
of more than 40% compared to the $290 billion from the previous year. Last year’s exports reflect
a surge not just in comparison to the pandemic-hit FY20–21, but also the pre-pandemic peak of $328
billion in FY18–19. While manufacturing exports have traditionally grown between 5% and 10%
pre-pandemic, the sharp rise in exports last year—particularly the past few months—is attributable
to the significant increase in share of manufacturing in the country’s exports. For instance, the
manufacturing-led exports in January, February, and March of last financial year were $34.5 billion,
$34.5 billion, and $40.4 billion, respectively, a rise of more than 20% compared to FY20–21’s first
quarter. Significantly, the recent growth in Indian exports is driven by sector-specific gains (top 15
export categories accounted for over 72% of total export) that have been enabled by a global focus
on supply chain resilience as well as specific policy initiatives to promote exports.

Building on the competitive advantage of a skilled workforce and lower cost of labour, the manufacturing
sector is also witnessing an increased inflow of capex and heightened M&A activity, leading to a surge
in manufacturing output and resultant increased contribution to exports. Notably, the current rise
in exports is consistent with India’s potential for growth and economic vision. Driven by growth in

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 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

priority sectors and propelled by favourable megatrends in manufacturing, India is expected to

scale up its manufacturing exports to $1 trillion by FY28. To capitalise on this opportunity, Indian
companies should focus on having a clear export strategy, the right execution chops, optimal capital
efficiency, and the right partnerships.

Six megatrends that are shaping India’s manufacturing sector

India’s growth in manufacturing exports has been propelled by six transformative megatrends that
have been fast-tracked during the past two years (see Figure 2):

1. Supply chain diversification: The post-pandemic diversification of the global supply chain had
a positive impact on the growth of India’s exports. While big Asian economies like Japan began
looking towards India as an alternative to China for sourcing their requirements, American
companies considered India among the top four destinations for relocation of operations.
Moreover, in 2021, CO2 emissions in China were 6% (almost 500 metric tons) above 2019 levels—
while India’s emissions were 1.4% (30 metric tons) above 2019 levels, helping companies shift
to India to comply with their environmental, safety, and health standards.

Figure 2: Six megatrends got fast-tracked during last two years, giving India a tremendous opportunity
to propel its export growth in the short term

1 Supply chain • Global impetus on supply chain diversification

diversification • India among top four destinations for relocation of American companies

2 Sectoral
advantages
India’s advantage in:
• Pharma • Chemicals • Industrial machinery • Electronics • Automobile • Textiles

• Thrust on fresh investments and ease of doing business

3 Government
initiatives
• PLI outlay of $47.8 billion
• FDI policy improved capital inflow and ease of doing business

4 Capex-led • Growth and high-capacity utilisations

growth • Projected next five years capex is six times higher than last five years

5 Mergers and
acquisitions
• Driving growth and reshaping portfolio
• In 2021, 90 strategic deals with cumulative value of $100 billion finalised

6 PE/VC-led
investments
• Digital and technology-led disruption in manufacturing
• PE/VC investments in Indian firms up 55% since 2019, hit record $70 billion in 2021

Source : Bain analysis

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 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

2. Sectoral advantages: Key manufacturing sectors (see Figure 3)—like chemicals, pharmaceuticals,
automotive, electronics, industrial machinery, and textiles—have shown tremendous growth over
the past few years. In these sectors, India possesses inherent strengths that have come to the fore.
In chemicals, Indian manufacturers are consistently building on India’s cost advantage and strong
supplier base, as compared to other manufacturing hubs, as well as strengths in research and
development (R&D) capabilities. In pharmaceuticals, India’s manufacturing cost is about 30%–
35% lower than that of the US and Europe. In the automotive sector, several global companies
are looking at export-oriented production in India because of the cost advantage over the US
and Europe and strong manufacturing capabilities. Between April and June FY22, Indian car
makers exported 1,27,115 vehicles, more than double the 43,619 units exported in the same
quarter in FY21. In electronics, manufacturers like Samsung, Wistron, and Foxconn are shifting
production to India because of strong manufacturing and R&D capabilities, a growing supplier
base, and strong policy support. In industrial machinery, India is becoming a destination for
exports thanks to low manufacturing costs and strong capabilities in technology. In textiles,
India has the cost advantage because of the availability of cheap raw materials and lower wages.

Figure 3: Chemicals, pharma, electronics, automotive, industrial machinery, and textiles are expected
to propel exports because of the six megatrends

Industries Six megatrends in manufacturing Key insights

Supply Sectoral Govt. Capex-led M&A PE/VC-led
chain divers advantage initiatives growth activity investment
• Growing supplier base
Chemicals
• Strong R&D capabilities
• Strong manufacturing capabilities
Pharma
• Cost advantage over US/Europe
Industrial • Strong manufacturing capabilities and export growth
machinery • Low cost of labor
Electrical & • Growing supplier base
electronic • Strong promotion policy
• Strong tier 2/tier 3 supplier base
Automotive
• Narrowing China-India cost differential
Textile & apparels • Large but fragmented supplier base
Plastic & rubber • Low economic benefit to shifting from China
Metal & mining, • High capex costs
minerals • Absence of key input raw materials
Food & beverages • No economic benefit to shifting from China
Leather, wood,
• Import dependence of timber
and paper
Transportation • No cost advantage over US and Europe

High/more favoruable for export Medium/semi-favourable for export Low/less favourable for export

Note: Sectoral growth considers overall growth potential for a sector given macroeconomic trends; industries listed above are non-exhaustive
Source: Bain analysis

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 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

3. Government-led initiatives: The Indian government’s continual efforts provided the thrust on
capex, fresh investments, and ease of doing business. While the PLI outlay of $47.8 billion planned
over five years, starting in 2021 (see Figure 4), has increased in-country production and helped
manufacturing-led exports, the foreign direct investment (FDI) policy initiatives aimed at
decreasing the FDI restrictive index have augmented the capital inflow; this is visible from
the fact that FDI investments increased by about 65% between 2015 and 2020. Key free-trade
agreements (FTAs), including India-UAE Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and
India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (IndAus ECTA), have been signed
with a vision to boost bilateral trade, creating an environment for export growth.

While the PLI schemes are aimed at attracting large investments across manufacturing sectors,
they will also improve capacity utilisation, increase manufacturing gross value added, and boost
sales across 13 key sectors, resulting in an overall increase in exports. The schemes are expected
to lead to a fresh infusion of investment of nearly $50 billion, with a production increase of about
$500 billion in the next five years. Growth led by the PLI schemes will show up most in the
electronics, pharmaceutical, automotive, advanced chemistry cell (ACC) battery, solar, and white

Figure 4: Production-linked incentive schemes will help attract large investments across manufacturing
sectors, driving not only domestic growth but also manufacturing-led exports

PLI scheme outlay ($B) Total = $47.8B

Aviation
16 13 9 5 2 1 1
100%
Metal & mining
EV:ACC (Battery)
80 Food processing
Electronics system Medical
devices
Textiles and apparel

60 Solar energy
White goods
Telecom

40 Automotive
Semiconductor
Pharma
20 Renewable Energy

0
Electronics and electrical Automotive Heavy industry Pharma Telecom
Textiles and apparel
Consumer goods

Source: Bain analysis

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 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

goods (home appliance) sectors, with a cascading multiplier effect on other sectors over the
next five years. The PLI schemes, coupled with FDI policies and new FTAs, will further incentivise
companies to increase export-led manufacturing.

4. Capex-led growth: India’s capex cycle is expected to fast-track in the wake of post-pandemic
economic growth and high-capacity utilisations, which will help cater to the increased demand.
The Indian government has budgeted a 35% year-over-year (YOY) increase in capex for FY23 to
~ $100 billion. With multiple companies reaching high levels of capacity utilisation, there is a
strong need for capex addition, and a rise in planned capex of more than six times the planned
capex from five years ago is a strong indicator of increased manufacturing activity across sectors.

5. M&As: Manufacturing companies are using the M&A route to drive growth and reshape their
portfolios to acquire new capabilities and enter new markets and segments. While scope acquisitions
outside companies’ core operations account for 4 out of 10 transactions, first-time buyers represent
about 80% of the $108 billion in M&A deals in India in 2021, 15.7% of which were in the manufacturing
sector. Cross-border M&A is also growing steadily, with a cross-border transaction value increase
from about $0.4 billion in 2017 to $1.2 billion in 2021.

PE/VC-led investments have particularly been witnessed in the

chemical, pharmaceutical, automotive, and electronics sectors,
resulting in an increase in manufacturing-led exports.

6. PE/VC-led investments: The last few years have seen significant PE/VC funds flowing into India
across major sectors, leading to digital and technology-led disruption in manufacturing, and the
trend has further accelerated in the post-pandemic era. PE/VC investments in Indian firms were
up by 55% since 2019, hitting a record of nearly $70 billion in 2021. These investments have given a
major thrust to the start-up ecosystem, along with integrated manufacturing platform development.
PE/VC-led investments have particularly been witnessed in the chemical, pharmaceutical,
automotive, and electronics sectors, resulting in an increase in manufacturing-led exports.
Meanwhile, multiple subsectors in manufacturing are witnessing an increase in valuations
(Enterprise value/EBITDA multiples) because of buoyancy in the manufacturing sector, which is
further attracting investments. As much as 18% of the total PE/VC investments in 2021 were in the
manufacturing sector, with the majority of them in the pharmaceuticals and chemicals subsectors.

6
 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

India’s trillion-dollar manufacturing export opportunity: select sectors

leading first wave of growth

Propelled by favourable megatrends in manufacturing, India is expected to scale up its manufacturing

exports to $1 trillion by FY28, and much of this growth will come from select sectors (see Figure 5).
Bain analysis shows that the positive impact of the megatrends is already being witnessed in six key
sectors (see Figure 6) and will accelerate further in the years ahead.

Leading the charge in manufacturing-led exports, India’s chemicals industry is poised for exponential
growth in the years to come. Exports of chemicals are estimated to grow at CAGR 19%–23% ($110–$130
billion by FY28), mainly because of the low cost of manufacturing and rising investments. Key causes
of growth in chemical sectors are Petroleum, Chemicals, and Petrochemicals Investment Region
(PCPIR) and PLI schemes in India that are leading to a surge in investments; the emerging popularity
of the Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS)/Contract Development & Manufacturing
Organisations (CDMO) model of operations globally; and the rising cost competitiveness of India.

Within chemicals, specialty chemical and agrochemical exports are expected to be the key growth
segments. This includes agrochemicals, dyes and pigments, flavours and fragrances, and construction

Figure 5: India is expected to scale up its exports to $1 trillion by FY28, driven by growth in priority
sectors propelled by favorable megatrends in manufacturing

Expected export FY28 ($B) Total: ~$1T

Leather, wood & paper

160 54 74 137 101 50 89 330 17
100%

Plastics & rubber

80

Metal, mining & precious metals

Industrial machinery

60
Automotive

Pharma

Electrical & Textile &

Foods
Others

electronics apparel
40 Chemicals

20 Minerals

0
Chemicals Industrial Electrical & Textile & Pharma Foods Metals & minerals Others
Automotive machinery electronics apparel

Sources: Ministry of Commerce, IHS Merkit, WTI, Euro monitor and CRISIL analyst report, Bain analysis

7
 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

Figure 6: Six sectors that will drive manufacturing export growth, enabling India to achieve $1 trillion
in exports by FY28

• Projected exports CAGR: 19%–23%

Chemical ~$110–$130B
• Hot segments: specialty chemicals, agrochemicals

• Projected exports CAGR: 16%–18%

Pharma ~$45–$50B
• Hot segments: active pharmaceutical ingredients and drug intermediaries

Industrial • Projected exports CAGR: 18%–20%

~$70–$75B
machinery • Hot segments: Food processing machines and textile machines

Electrical & • Projected exports CAGR: 35%–40%

$120–$145B
electronics • Hot segments: Mobile phones & Industrial electronics

• Projected exports CAGR: 15%–18%

Automotive $45–$55B
• Hot segments: EV components

Textile & • Projected exports CAGR: 13%–16%

~$95–$110B
apparel • Hot segments: man-made fibers, technical textiles

Note: Projected exports depicted in red; all the growth numbers from FY22–28
Source: Bain analysis

chemicals. Specifically, in specialty chemicals, India’s high-quality product output by virtue of its
strong R&D capability is further enhancing its reputation in the international market. Key molecules
coming off patent in the next five years are going to spur exports further, with India being a favourable
destination for CRAMS and CDMO players.

The pharmaceutical industry is another sector with outstanding export prospects. India’s drugs and
pharmaceutical exports are expected to grow at a CAGR of 16%–18% ($45 billion–$50 billion) by FY28.
India has traditionally been very strong in the pharma sector, with a low cost of manufacturing
(30%–35% lower than in the US and Europe), cost-efficient R&D (about 87% less than in developed
markets), and cheap skilled labour.

India’s strength in pharma—coupled with recent factors like incentivisation under PLI schemes,
strong capex and PE/VC investments with 100% FDI, and rising labour costs in competing countries
like China—is going to propel growth in exports. Within the pharma industry, biologicals and bulk
drugs in the active pharmaceutical ingredient and drug intermediary subsegment are expected to
be key growing segments over the next few years.

8
 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

Industrial machinery exports are expected to grow at a CAGR of 18%–20% ($70 billion–$75 billion)
by FY28 because of the rising demand from developing markets, strong capabilities of the Indian
industrial sector, the low cost of manufacturing government-led PLIs, 100% FDI, and higher
M&A activities.

Indian steel is becoming globally competitive, with availability of

cheap raw material (iron ore), new and innovative techniques, and
a low cost of manufacturing, with strong capabilities in technology
for high-end machinery.

Industrial machinery production in India is also getting a significant cost advantage globally because
of the low cost of major raw material, such as steel. Indian steel is becoming globally competitive,
with availability of cheap raw material (iron ore), new and innovative techniques, and a low cost
of manufacturing, with strong capabilities in technology for high-end machinery.

The electronics sector, estimated to grow at a CAGR of 35%–40% to $120 billion–$145 billion by FY28,
is one of most attractive sectors for manufacturing-led exports. India offers an advantage of strong
manufacturing technology and R&D capabilities in the semiconductor industry focused on chip
design and end-to-end supply chain improvement.

The sharp growth will be driven by a strong push from government schemes like PLIs, the Merchandise
Exports India Scheme, and the Scheme for Promotion of Manufacturing of Electronic Components
and Semiconductors, which are likely to increase export growth by 35%–40% YOY. Increasing the focus
on supply chain diversification is also going to make India an export hub for mobile phones. Large
global mobile phone manufacturers like Samsung, Wistron, and Foxconn are planning for mobile
phone manufacturing and exports from India.

Within electronics, India’s mobile phone exports are going to be the fastest-growing segment. Mobile
phone production has increased fivefold in the past five years, and India is on track to emerge as
a global exporting hub of mobile phones, which creates robust demand for integrated circuits and
semiconductors. This will get a boost with the focus moving from assembly to developing expertise
in end-to-end hardware component manufacturing. There’s a great opportunity to capture share from
other strong export players like China in this subsegment.

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 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

A traditional powerhouse, automotive exports are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15%–18% ($45 billion–
$55 billion) by FY28, including electric vehicles (EVs), primarily because of low-cost manufacturing
and a large Tier 2 and Tier 3 supplier base ensuring the availability of automotive components. Recent
factors like government-led support through incentive schemes like the PLI and sharp uptick in FDI
will increase capital inflow. The narrowing China-India cost differential and increasing penetration
of India original equipment manufacturers in key markets like Latin America and Africa will make
India an export hub of automotive components.

The government’s concerted efforts to create a conducive environment for adoption of EVs and the
initiative to provide incentives, such as a $3.5 billion outlay to encourage production and export of
clean technology vehicles and their components, will further drive expansion of the EV market, not
only domestically, but also for exports. Because of rising environmental concerns and fuel prices,
EV adoption is expected to increase about 24% globally by FY28, and the Indian automotive sector
has an opportunity to drive export growth up to $5 billion through EV and EV components alone
at a phenomenal CAGR of 37%.

Because of rising environmental concerns and fuel prices, EV

adoption is expected to increase about 24% globally by FY28, and
the Indian automotive sector has an opportunity to drive export
growth up to $5 billion through EV and EV components alone
at a phenomenal CAGR of 37%.

India’s textile and apparel exports are also expected to grow at a CAGR of 13%–16% to $95 billion–
$110 billion by FY28. This growth will be powered by the presence of the complete value chain, from
raw materials to finished goods; the competitive cost of manufacturing; preferential market access;
supportive government policies like the PLI scheme outlay of $1.42 billion; and export incentivisation
from 2% to 4% for the two subsectors of ready-made garments and made-ups.

In the textile sector, man-made fibre and technical textiles are likely to offer immense growth
opportunities in global trade. India currently enjoys preferential market access to 43 countries under
15 trade agreements. While the US ban on textiles from Xinjiang, which produces more than 85% of
China’s textile output, is an opportunity for India, the EU has also granted India with generalised-
system-of-preference status, under which garment exports to the EU attract 20% less duty than the
most-favoured-nation rate.

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 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

Imperatives for export acceleration for companies

As much as the growth in exports presents a tremendous opportunity for the existing manufacturing
companies, new entrants, and the investor community, it also poses some questions to Indian
manufacturing companies, which are in the middle of making strategic choices:

1. What are the right ambitions and priorities for exports business?

Define a bold ambition and growth roadmap with clearly identified focus areas—winning products,
geographies, and customers.

2. What is the right business and operating model for exports business?

Define clearly how the exports business will be structured and operated, e.g., direct international
presence vs. operating through intermediaries, organic subsidiary vs. acquisition/partnership,
and owned team vs. outsourced resources. These choices have long-term implications on the
sustainability and scalability of exports businesses.

3. How to establish a robust supply chain in sync with exports strategy?

Revisit the supply chain footprint and strategy in the context of expected growth in exports.
New choices are to be made for capacity expansion, footprint diversification and raw materials
sourcing to support the fast growth in exports.

4. What is the economic and business plan for exports business?

Define the addressable market clearly and create an exhaustive business plan with product/
geography/customer-wise profit and loss estimates, cash flow estimates, and return on capital
employed projections.

5. What organisational resources and capabilities would be required to support exports business?

Acquire the right talent with the right skills; develop key account management/foreign distributor
management capabilities for export business; and acquire the right assets, technology, and patents
to create a point of differentiation in the market.

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 The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India

Methodology

The authors employed five different methods to estimate sector-specific export growth in this report:

1. Historical growth adjusted for incremental growth from schemes like PLIs and PCPIR

2. Historical growth adjusted for gain from supply chain diversification

3. Perspectives from leading analysts and experts

4. Government projections

5. Export growth of top companies in each sector

The final CAGR number is consensus growth, taken as an average of growth estimates calculated
from the above-mentioned methods.

12
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