Electricity and gas wholesale markets in

2021 – some basic facts

KU LEUVEN – GUEST LECTURE
Andreas Tirez

2 March 2022
1.1 Total Load & Elia Grid load – per year
• Annual consumption (total load) increased by 4%
• Elia Grid load slightly increased to 70,9 TWh in 2021 (+1,4%)

 1.2 Electricity generation – per year

• Electricity generation increased by 13,5% to reach 93,3 TWh :
• Sharp increase of nuclear production (+46%)
• Decrease of gas fired power plants (-20%)
• Stagnation of wind + solar

1.2 Generation mix : 2021 vs 2020

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1.3 Exchanges – Day-ahead market
• Very sharp price increase (average price in Belgium : 104,1 EUR/MWh)
• Prices in Belgium higher than in The Netherlands and in Germany but
lower than in the UK, France and Austria

1.3 Exchanges – Price convergence

• Similar price convergence in 2021 (49,5%) as in 2020 (48,5%)
• Seasonal pattern (low convergence in winter) persists

1.3 Exchanges – Negative prices

• In 2021, Belgium is the only country with an increase of number of hours with
negative prices compared to 2020
• 159 hours (1,8% of the time): highest of all EU bidding zones

1.3 Profitability CCGT 2007-2021

• Hedge strategy of up to 90% of the capacity
• Operating profit estimated at 39,3 mio Eur in 2021 (4,5 mio Eur in 2020)

1.4 Interconnexions in 2021

• Record of electricity exports : 20,1 TWh (UK – 7,2 TWh , France – 7 TWh)
• Nemo Link : exports to UK / ALEGrO : balanced
(see also relative price positions)

1.5 Balancing prices

• Average balancing prices continue to converge
• They experience the same extreme price increase as in other markets

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2.1 Gas consumption 2011-2021

• Gas consumption stable at 190,3 TWh (vs 190,7 TWh in 2020)
• Increase of import from The Netherlands at 58,5 TWh (+18,4%)
• Further decrease of net export to France at 61,3 TWh (-39,4%)

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2.2 Gas storage 2011-2021

• High gas prices
• Low storage levels foreseen in Europe at the end of the storage season

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2.3 LNG Zeebrugge 2007-2021

• Highest number of ships at the LNG Terminal since 2007

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2.3 LNG Zeebrugge

• Lower send-out compared to 2019 and 2020

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2.4 Gas prices 2007-2021
• Sharp increase (both DAM and Y+1)
• Especially the last three months of 2021
• DAM prices systematically higher than Y+1 prices

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 3. Conclusions
• Electricity
• Annual consumption (total load) increased by 4% while Elia Grid load
slightly increased to 70,9 TWh in 2021 (+1,4%)
• Electricity generation increased by 13,5% to reach 93,3 TWh (Sharp
increase of nuclear (+46%)/ decrease of gas (-20%) / stagnation of wind
+ solar
• Very sharp price increase on the day-ahead market
• Higher price convergence with neighbouring markets
• Number of hours with negative prices increased
• Operating profit of a CCGT estimated at 39,3 Mio Eur
• Record of electricity exports : 20,1 TWh (UK – 7,2 TWh , France – 7
TWh)
• Average balancing prices continue to converge (sharply increasing)

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 3. Conclusions
• Gas
• Gas consumption stable at 190,3 TWh (190,7 TWh in 2020)
• Increase of import from The Netherlands; export to FR decreased
further
• Low storage levels in Europe foreseen at the end of the storage season
• Highest number of ships at the LNG Terminal since 2007
• Sharply increasing spot and forward prices, especially in Q4 2021
• DAM prices systematically higher than Y+1 prices

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