CONSULTATION WORKSHOP

VIETNAM ENERGY OUTLOOK 2023

 DEPPIII programme
in Vietnam

Danish Energy Agency

Global Cooperation
Collaborations with 24 countries – Vietnam one of the oldest and largest collaborations

12 September 2023 Page 3

Danish-Vietnamese Energy Partnership Programme (DEPP III)

• G2G Long term planning

Integration of variable Energy Efficiency in
renewables industries
• Partner: MOIT with EREA
with ERAV with EESD
• Since: 2013
• Energy Outlook • Grid Codes • Legal framework
• Third phase: 2020-2025 Report • Power system
• Regulatory operation • Incentive schemes
framework for • Thermal power plant
offshore wind flexibility • Compliance

Common goals and targets: ➢ Contributions to low carbon development

➢ Institutional capacity development
➢ Increased investments and uptake of renewable energy
➢ Effective integration of renewable energy
➢ Increased Energy efficiency
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Why EOR23?
Danish experiences on role of scenarios and planning in energy transition
Enabling the green transition through discussions based on updated analyses

Examples of scenarios from various stakeholders: Government authorities facilitates continued dialogue and
development through regular updates. Examples:

Climate Commission
(for parliament): 2009 DEA: 8 different tech. catalogues,
updated as needed
(3-4 updates per year)
Power Sector
organisation: 2009
Annual Climate Programs with 4
Danish Energy scenarios towards 2050 (Ministry
Agency: 2013 of Climate and Energy)

Energinet (TSO): 2014 Annual Frozen Policy +

”Best Pathway to Goals”
scenarios (DEA/Ministry)

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EOR23 (and previous EOR21) uses three different models

Transmission capacity in GW in 2020

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EOR21 studied 5 main scenarios for Vietnam

• Baseline
Baseline - BSL Is the reference scenario, and includes existing policies
and contracted new plants

• Green Power
Green Power - GP Includes a higher share of renewables and less coal

• Green transport
Includes a higher share of electrification of the transport
Green Transport - GT sector supplied by RE and modal shift to collective
transport

• Air pollution
The Air Pollution scenario adds the costs related to
Air Pollution - AP human health impacts from air pollution

• Net Zero
Net Zero - NZ Includes a pathway to almost net zero GHG emissions in
2050 defined by a CO2 budget.

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 EOR21: It is possible to reach close to 0 CO2-emissions by 2050

Net Zero scenario from EOR21 Selected conclusions from EOR21

800
Transport - 65 Mt CO2 can be reached by 2050
700 - Further reductions require new types of RE fuels (e-fuels) or CCS
Supply
- Land-based VRE is utilized to a very large extent
600
Residential
CO2 emissions [Mt]

500
Power
400
Industry Main topics and approaches for EOR23
300
- Which technologies are cost-effective to reach 2050 goals (101 Mt),
Commercial in addition to policies planned with PDP8 and EMP?
200
- The role of RE fuels and storage: New technology catalogues
Agriculture developed, and used in models
100
- Improved geographic studies including descriptions of wind and
0 BSL- Total solar production

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 - role of biomass, hydrogen and ammonia incl in co-firing

BSL: Baseline scenario

NZ: Net zero scenario 12 September 2023 Page 9
Main reasons for EOR23 and overall questions for you

Overall purpose of EOR23:

- Which different pathways are there towards 2050 net-zero?
- What types of decisions and dilemmas are associated with the different pathways?

For EOR23 we have designed 03 scenarios:
• A baseline scenario to show the newest
trend with latest technology costs and
policies. No climate target
• A Net Zero Constrained scenario, where
existing policies, planned investments,
sector targets etc. are included
• A Net Zero Least-Cost scenario, where the
models optimise with a minimum of
limitations
What we hope to get your input on:
• Are we missing any constraints or practical
limitations? Any other input to make the
scenarios even more insightful?
• Any technologies or other critical input
missing?
• Should we explore different economic
growth policies/constraints more?
• Any requests for topics that needs to be
investigated in greater detail?

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 Thank you

Rasmus Munch Sørensen

Long-term advisor
Danish-Vietnamese Energy Partnership Programme (DEPP3)