Lingkungan

makroekonomi

Sektor real
Oleh: Dr. Chandra Utama, SE., MM., MSc.
Inflasi
 Pemulihan ekonomi
Indonesia

LPI 2021-XXVI

Sistem Pembayaran dan Pengelolaan Uang Rupiah (SPPUR), World Trade

Volume (WTV), Indeks Harga Komoditas Ekspor Indonesia (INKEI)
 How firms make profit?
Profit=Price of output x output – Price of input x input Market for
Market for Profit= Revenue - cost output
input
Money Firms:
Firms: Money supply (ss)
The price level change effect profit of the business
demand (dd) Firms
Households:
Households: Buy factors of Change factor of Demand
Supply (ss) productions or production to goods and Sell output (dd)
input services (output) (supply)
Interaction (demand) Interaction
dd and ss Objectives: profit dd and ss
result Cost result
Price of Revenue Price of
for for firms
input firms input

In real sector, variables determine supply

External factor is supply of input and demand of output are:
External factor is demand of goods
of input Income
and services.
What macroeconomic Inflation
What macroeconomic factors
factors determine supply Unemployment
determine demand of output?
of inputs?
 The Inflation Rate (tingkat inflasi)
Definisi Inflasi

Inflasi dapat diartikan sebagai kenaikan harga barang dan jasa secara umum dan terus menerus dalam jangka
waktu tertentu. Deflasi merupakan kebalikan dari inflasi, yakni penurunan harga barang secara umum dan terus
menerus.

Perhitungan inflasi dilakukan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Kenaikan harga dari satu atau dua barang saja
tidak dapat disebut inflasi kecuali bila kenaikan itu meluas (atau mengakibatkan kenaikan harga) pada barang
lainnya.

Inflasi =
( Pt − Pt −1 )
Pt −1
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Dimana: P adalah tingkat harga umum.
Tingkat harga (price level)
Dalam ilmu ekonomi, deflator PDB, atau GDP Deflator dalam bahasa Inggris, adalah rasio antara PDB
riil dengan PDB nominal, dikalikan 100. Deflator PDB menunjukkan besarnya perubahan harga dari semua
barang baru, barang produksi lokal, barang jadi, dan jasa.
PDB merupakan singkatan dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) yaitu jumlah produk berupa barang dan jasa yang
dihasilkan oleh unit-unit produksi di dalam batas wilayah suatu negara (domestik) selama satu tahun.

Indeks Harga konsumen (IHK):

Indeks yang menghitung rata-rata perubahan harga dari suatu paket barang dan jasa yang dikonsumsi oleh rumah
tangga dalam kurun waktu tertentu. IHK merupakan indikator yang digunakan untuk mengukur tingkat inflasi.

Indeks Harga Produsen (IHP) adalah angka indeks yang menggambarkan tingkat perubahan harga ditingkat produsen.
Pengguna data dapat memanfaatkan perkembangan harga produsen sebagai indikator dini harga grosir maupun harga
eceran.

Indeks harga perdagangan besar (IHPB):

Indeks yang menggambarkan besarnya perubahan harga pada tingkat harga harga perdagangan besar/harga grosir
dari komoditas-komoditas yang diperdagangkan di suatu negara/daerah.

Dalam praktek, IHK paling banyak digunakan 6

 Pengukuran IHK
Berdasarkan the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP), IHK
dikelompokkan ke dalam tujuh kelompok pengeluaran, yaitu:
1. Bahan Makanan.
2. Makanan Jadi, Minuman, dan Tembakau.
3. Perumahan.
4. Sandang.
5. Kesehatan.
6. Pendidikan dan Olahraga.
7. Transportasi dan Komunikasi.

Data pengelompokan tersebut didapatkan melalui Survei Biaya Hidup (SBH)

 Perhitungan indeks harga konsumen
* Bobot dalam perhitungan IHK didasarkan pada survei biaya hidup

Sumber : Badan Pusat Statistik

1) Untuk data tahun 2002 dan 2003, IHK dengan tahun dasar 1996 = 100, telah dimuat di edisi April 2004
2) Sejak tahun 2004, IHK dihitung berdasarkan tahun dasar 2002 (2002=100) di 45 kota
3) Sejak bulan Juni 2008, IHK dihitung berdasarkan tahun dasar 2007 (2007=100) di 66 kota
4) Sejak bulan Januari 2014, IHK dihitung berdasarkan tahun dasar 2012 (2012=100) di 82 kota
8
5) Sejak bulan Januari 2020, IHK dihitung berdasarkan tahun dasar 2018 (2018=100) di 90 kota
Sumber: BI.go.id
Paket
komoditi
dalam
perhitunga
n IHK 82
kota

10
 Inflasi nasional dan provinsi (yoy)
35

30

25

20

15

10

-5
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 11
Contoh:
Inflasi
daerah
Info grafis inflasi
Info grafis inflasi
 Tour data
https://www.bps.go.id/subject/3/inflasi.html#subjekViewTab3
Pengangguran
 How firms make profit? Unemployment
makes the Market for
Profit=Price of output x output – Price of input x input
Market for Profit= Revenue - cost demand for output
input output fall
Money Firms:
Firms: Money supply (ss)
demand (dd) Firms
Households:
Households: Buy factors of Change factor of Demand
Supply (ss) productions or production to goods and Sell output (dd)
input services (output) (supply)
Interaction (demand) Interaction
dd and ss Objectives: profit dd and ss
result Cost result
Price of Revenue Price of
for for firms
input firms input

In real sector, variables determine supply

External factor is supply of input and demand of output are:
External factor is demand of goods
of input Income
and services.
What macroeconomic Inflation
What macroeconomic factors
factors determine supply Unemployment
determine demand of output?
of inputs?
Unemployment
● Unemployment, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD), is when persons above a specified age (usually above 15)
are not in paid employment or self-employment and are currently available for work
during the reference period.
● Unemployment is measured by the unemployment rate as the number of people
who are unemployed as a percentage of the labour force (the total number of
people employed plus unemployed).
● Unemployment can have many sources, including but not limited to:
○ new technologies and inventions
○ the status of the economy which could be influenced by a recession
○ competition due to globalization and international trade
○ policies of the government
○ regulation and market
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The Unemployment Rate

●Employment is the number of people who have a job.

●Unemployment is the number of people who do not have a

job but are looking for one.

●Thelabor force is the sum of employment and

unemployment:

●L = N + U
●Labor force = Employment + Unemployment

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 The Unemployment Rate

●Theunemployment rate is the ratio of the number of people who are

unemployed to the number of people in the labor force:

U
u=
L
Unemployment rate = Unemployment/Labor force

In the United States, estimates based on the CPS show that:

20
3 type of unemployment
Cyclical unemployment
Cyclical, deficient-demand, or Keynesian unemployment, occurs when there is not
enough aggregate demand in the economy to provide jobs for everyone who wants to
work.
Structural unemployment occurs when a labor market is unable to provide jobs for
everyone who wants one because there is a mismatch between the skills of the
unemployed workers and the skills needed for the available jobs.
Frictional unemployment is the time period between jobs when a worker is searching
for, or transitioning from one job to another. It is sometimes called search
unemployment and can be voluntary based on the circumstances of the unemployed
individual.
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 Penganggur terbuka
Penganggur terbuka terdiri dari:
a. Mereka yang tak punya pekerjaan dan
mencari pekerjaan.
b. Mereka yang tak punya pekerjaan dan
mempersiapkan usaha.
c. Mereka yang tak punya pekerjaan dan
tidak mencari pekerjaan, karena merasa
tidak mungkin mendapatkan pekerjaan.
d. Mereka yang sudah punya pekerjaan,
tetapi belum molai bekerja.
Info grafis
 Tour data
https://www.bps.go.id/statictable/2009/04/16/972/pengangguran-terbuka-menurut-pendidikan-tertinggi-
yang-ditamatkan-1986---2021.html
Interdipendensi output,
inflasi, dan
pengangguran
Okun's law: the relationship between output and unemployment
● Okun's law is based on regression analysis of U.S. data that shows a
correlation between unemployment and GDP. Okun's law can be stated as:
For every 1% increase in cyclical unemployment (actual unemployment –
natural rate of unemployment), GDP will decrease by β%.
● %Output gap = −β x %Cyclical unemployment
● This can also be expressed as:

where:
•Y is actual output
•Y* is potential output
•u is actual unemployment
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•ū is the natural rate of unemployment
•β is a constant derived from regression to show the link between deviations
from natural output and natural unemployment.
● The Phillips curve is a
single-equation economic
model, named after William
Phillips, describing an inverse
relationship between rates of
unemployment and
corresponding rates of rises
in wages that result within an
economy. Stated simply,
decreased unemployment,
(i.e., increased levels of
employment) in an economy
will correlate with higher rates
of wage rises.
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Tugas 1
 Pemulihan ekonomi
Indonesia
GDP

Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto (PMTB) LPI 2021-XXXI

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