1 A recovery ward in a maternity hospital has six beds.

s. What is the probability that the mothers there have between

them four girls and two boys? (You may assume that there are no twins and that a baby is equally likely to be a girl
or a boy.)
𝟏𝟓
P (4G & 2B) = 64C G4 B2 = 15 x ½4 x ½2 = 𝟔𝟒

2 A typist has a probability of 0.99 of typing a character correctly. He makes his mistakes at random. He types a
sentence containing 200 characters. What is the probability that he makes exactly one mistake?

P (Correctly) = 0.99 ; P (Not Correct) = 0.01 ; n = 200

P (199 C & 1 NC) = 2001C C199 NC1 = 200 x (0.99)199 x (0.01)1 = 0.271

3 In a well-known game you have to decide which your opponent is going to choose: ‘Paper’, ‘Stone’ or ‘Scissors’. If
you guess entirely at random, what is the probability that you are right exactly 5 times out of 15?
1 1 1
P (Paper) = 3 ; P (Stone) = 3 ; P ( Scissors) = 3

1 2
P (5 Right & 10 False) = 155C R5 NR10 = 3003 x (3)5 x (3)10 = 0.214

4 There is a fault in a machine that makes microchips, with the result that only 80% of those it produces work. A
random sample of eight microchips made by this machine is taken. What is the probability that exactly six of them
work?

P (Work) = 80% ; P (Not Work) = 20%

P (6 Work & 2 Not Work) = 82C W6 WR2 = 28 x (0.8)6 x (0.2)2 = 0.294

5 An airport is situated in a place where poor visibility (less than 800m) can be expected 25% of the time. A pilot flies
into the airport on ten different occasions.

(i) What is the probability that he encounters poor visibility exactly four times?

P (Poor) = 0.25 ; P (Good) = 0.75

P (4 Poor & 6 Good) = 104C P4 G6 = 210 x (0.25)4 x (0.75)6 = 0.146

(ii) What other factors could influence the probability?

Poor visibility might depend on the time of day, or might vary with the time of year. If so, this simple binomial
model would not be applicable.

6 Three coins are tossed.

(i) What is the probability of all three showing heads?

𝟏
P (3H 0T) = 33C H3 T0 = 1 x ½3 x ½0 = 𝟖
(ii) What is the probability of two heads and one tail?
𝟑
P (2H 1T) = 32C H2 T1 = 3 x ½2 x ½1 =
𝟖
(iii) What is the probability of one head and two tails?
𝟑
P (1H 2T) = 31C H1 T2 = 3 x ½1 x ½2 = 𝟖
(iv) What is the probability of all three showing tails?
𝟏
P (0H 3T) = 30C H0 T3 = 1 x ½0 x ½3 =
𝟖
(v) Show that the probabilities for the four possible outcomes add up to 1.
1 3 3 1 8
8
+ 8 + 8 + 8 = 8 = 1 (PROVEN)
7 A coin is tossed ten times.

(i) What is the probability of it coming down heads five times and tails five times?
P (5H 5T) = 105C H5 T5 = 252 x ½5 x ½5 = 0.246
(ii) Which is more likely : exactly seven heads or more than seven heads?
P (7H 3T) or P (8H 2T or 9H 1T or 10H 0T)
10
= 7C H T7 3
= 108C H8 T2 + 109C H9 T1 + 10 10 0
10 C H T
= 120 x ½7 x ½3 = 45 x ½8 x ½2 + 10 x ½9 x ½1 + 1 x ½10 x ½0
120 45 10 1
= 1024 = 1024 + 1024 + 1024
𝟏𝟕𝟔 𝟓𝟔
= 𝟏𝟎𝟐𝟒 > = 𝟏𝟎𝟐𝟒
= Exactly 7H is more likely

8 In an election 30% of people support the Progressive Party. A random sample of eight voters is taken.

(i) What is the probability that it contains : P (S) = 0.3 ; P (NS) = 0.7
(a) 0 = 80C S0 NS8 = 1 x 0.30 x 0.78 = 0.0576
(b) 1 = 81C S1 NS7 = 8 x 0.31 x 0.77 = 0.198
(c) 2 = 82C S2 NS6 = 28 x 0.32 x 0.76 = 0.296
(d) at least 3 supporters of the Progressive Party?
= 1 – (0.0576 + 0.198 + 0.296) = 1 – 0.552 = 0.448

(ii) Which is the most likely number of Progressive Party supporters to find in a sample size of eight?
2 is the most likely number

9 There are 15 children in a class.

31 334
(i) What is the probability that : P (Born Jan) = 365 ; P (Non Jan) = 365
31 334
(a) 0 = 150C J0 NJ15 = 1 x 365 0 x 365 15 = 0.264
31 1 334 14
(b) 1 = 151C J1 NJ14 = 15 x x = 0.368
365 365
31 2 334 13
(c) 2 = 152C J2 NJ13 = 105 x 365 x 365 = 0.239
(d) at least 3 were born in January?
= 1 – (0.264 + 0.368 + 0.239) = 1 – 0.871 = 0.129
(ii) What assumption have you made in answering this question? How valid is this assumption in your view?
𝟑𝟏
Assumed the probability of being born in January = 𝟑𝟔𝟓.
This ignores leap years and the possibility of seasonal variations in the pattern of births throughout the year

10 Criticise this argument. If you toss two coins they can come down three ways: two heads, one head and one tail, or
two tails. There are three outcomes and so each of them must have probability one third.

The three possible outcomes are not equally likely: ‘one head and one tail’ can arise in two ways (HT or TH) and
is therefore twice as probable as ‘two heads’ (or ‘two tails’).