Average annual real Gross Domestic Product in current dollars

FRED Graph Observations

Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
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Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GDPC1 Real Gross Domestic Product, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Annual, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency: Annual
observation_date GDPC1
1976-01-01 5952.809
1977-01-01 6228.077
1978-01-01 6572.819
1979-01-01 6780.924
1980-01-01 6763.514
1981-01-01 6935.153
1982-01-01 6810.120
1983-01-01 7122.291
1984-01-01 7637.704
1985-01-01 7956.170
1986-01-01 8231.664
1987-01-01 8516.418
1988-01-01 8872.154
1989-01-01 9197.998
1990-01-01 9371.468
1991-01-01 9361.322
1992-01-01 9691.069
1993-01-01 9957.746
1994-01-01 10358.923
1995-01-01 10636.979
1996-01-01 11038.266
1997-01-01 11529.157
1998-01-01 12045.824
1999-01-01 12623.361
2000-01-01 13138.035
2001-01-01 13263.417
2002-01-01 13488.357
2003-01-01 13865.519
2004-01-01 14399.696
2005-01-01 14901.269
2006-01-01 15315.943
2007-01-01 15623.872
2008-01-01 15642.962
2009-01-01 15236.262
2010-01-01 15648.991
2011-01-01 15891.534
2012-01-01 16253.970
2013-01-01 16553.348
2014-01-01 16932.052
2015-01-01 17390.295
2016-01-01 17680.274
2017-01-01 18076.652
2018-01-01 18609.078
2019-01-01 19036.052
2020-01-01 18509.143
2021-01-01 19609.812
 Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks
FRED Graph Observations
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fredhelp.stlouisfed.org
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ALTSALES Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks, Millions of Units, Annual, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency: Annual
observation_date ALTSALES
1976-01-01 12.966
1977-01-01 14.486
1978-01-01 14.973
1979-01-01 13.768
1980-01-01 11.192
1981-01-01 10.564
1982-01-01 10.363
1983-01-01 12.120
1984-01-01 14.197
1985-01-01 15.443
1986-01-01 16.051
1987-01-01 14.861
1988-01-01 15.436
1989-01-01 14.529
1990-01-01 13.863
1991-01-01 12.314
1992-01-01 12.860
1993-01-01 13.874
1994-01-01 15.044
1995-01-01 14.728
1996-01-01 15.097
1997-01-01 15.122
1998-01-01 15.543
1999-01-01 16.894
2000-01-01 17.350
2001-01-01 17.122
2002-01-01 16.816
2003-01-01 16.639
2004-01-01 16.867
2005-01-01 16.948
2006-01-01 16.504
2007-01-01 16.089
2008-01-01 13.195
2009-01-01 10.403
2010-01-01 11.555
2011-01-01 12.743
2012-01-01 14.435
2013-01-01 15.530
2014-01-01 16.452
2015-01-01 17.408
2016-01-01 17.477
2017-01-01 17.150
2018-01-01 17.225
2019-01-01 16.961
2020-01-01 14.472
2021-01-01 14.947
2022-01-01 #N/A
 The yearly growth rate of real GDP
FRED Graph Observations
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fredhelp.stlouisfed.org
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GDPC1_PC1 Real Gross Domestic Product, Percent Change from Year Ago, Annual, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency: Annual
observation_date GDPC1_PC1
1976-01-01 5.4
1977-01-01 4.6
1978-01-01 5.5
1979-01-01 3.2
1980-01-01 -0.3
1981-01-01 2.5
1982-01-01 -1.8
1983-01-01 4.6
1984-01-01 7.2
1985-01-01 4.2
1986-01-01 3.5
1987-01-01 3.5
1988-01-01 4.2
1989-01-01 3.7
1990-01-01 1.9
1991-01-01 -0.1
1992-01-01 3.5
1993-01-01 2.8
1994-01-01 4.0
1995-01-01 2.7
1996-01-01 3.8
1997-01-01 4.4
1998-01-01 4.5
1999-01-01 4.8
2000-01-01 4.1
2001-01-01 1.0
2002-01-01 1.7
2003-01-01 2.8
2004-01-01 3.9
2005-01-01 3.5
2006-01-01 2.8
2007-01-01 2.0
2008-01-01 0.1
2009-01-01 -2.6
2010-01-01 2.7
2011-01-01 1.5
2012-01-01 2.3
2013-01-01 1.8
2014-01-01 2.3
2015-01-01 2.7
2016-01-01 1.7
2017-01-01 2.2
2018-01-01 2.9
2019-01-01 2.3
2020-01-01 -2.8
2021-01-01 5.9
 The annual growth rate Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks
FRED Graph Observations
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fredhelp.stlouisfed.org
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ALTSALES_PC1 Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks, Percent Change from Year Ago, Annual, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency: Annual
observation_date ALTSALES_PC1
1977-01-01 11.7
1978-01-01 3.4
1979-01-01 -8.0
1980-01-01 -18.7
1981-01-01 -5.6
1982-01-01 -1.9
1983-01-01 16.9
1984-01-01 17.1
1985-01-01 8.8
1986-01-01 3.9
1987-01-01 -7.4
1988-01-01 3.9
1989-01-01 -5.9
1990-01-01 -4.6
1991-01-01 -11.2
1992-01-01 4.4
1993-01-01 7.9
1994-01-01 8.4
1995-01-01 -2.1
1996-01-01 2.5
1997-01-01 0.2
1998-01-01 2.8
1999-01-01 8.7
2000-01-01 2.7
2001-01-01 -1.3
2002-01-01 -1.8
2003-01-01 -1.1
2004-01-01 1.4
2005-01-01 0.5
2006-01-01 -2.6
2007-01-01 -2.5
2008-01-01 -18.0
2009-01-01 -21.2
2010-01-01 11.1
2011-01-01 10.3
2012-01-01 13.3
2013-01-01 7.6
2014-01-01 5.9
2015-01-01 5.8
2016-01-01 0.4
2017-01-01 -1.9
2018-01-01 0.4
2019-01-01 -1.5
2020-01-01 -14.7
2021-01-01 3.3
 Regression analysis
Year %change GDP %change auto sales SUMMARY OUTPUT
1977 4.6% 11.7%
1978 5.5% 3.4% Regression Statistics
1979 3.2% -8.0% Multiple R 0.668300584
1980 -0.3% -18.7% R Square 0.446625671
1981 2.5% -5.6% Adjusted R Square 0.433450091
1982 -1.8% -1.9% Standard Error 0.06479882
1983 4.6% 16.9% Observations 44
1984 7.2% 17.1%
1985 4.2% 8.8% ANOVA
1986 3.5% 3.9% df SS MS F Significance F
1987 3.5% -7.4% Regression 1 0.142333837 0.142333837 33.89799124 0.000072%
1988 4.2% 3.9% Residual 42 0.176353257 0.004198887
1989 3.7% -5.9% Total 43 0.318687093
1990 1.9% -4.6%
1991 -0.1% -11.2% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
1992 3.5% 4.4% Intercept -0.07077544 0.016199483 -4.368993693 8.01462E-05 -0.10346732 -0.038083559 -0.10347 -0.03808
1993 2.8% 7.9% X variable 1 2.827524043 0.485645451 5.822198145 7.15577E-07 1.847451844 3.807596241 1.847452 3.807596
1994 4.0% 8.4% y represent for sale
1995 2.7% -2.1% x represent for GDP
1996 3.8% 2.5% Y = -0.07 + 2.83X
1997 4.4% 0.2%
1998 4.5% 2.8%
1999 4.8% 8.7%
2000 4.1% 2.7%
2001 1.0% -1.3%
2002 1.7% -1.8%
2003 2.8% -1.1%
2004 3.9% 1.4%
2005 3.5% 0.5%
2006 2.8% -2.6%
2007 2.0% -2.5%
2008 0.1% -18.0%
2009 -2.6% -21.2%
2010 2.7% 11.1%
2011 1.5% 10.3%
2012 2.3% 13.3%
2013 1.8% 7.6%
2014 2.3% 5.9%
2015 2.7% 5.8%
2016 1.7% 0.4%
2017 2.2% -1.9%
2018 2.9% 0.4%
2019 2.3% -1.5%
2020 -2.8% -14.7%
2021 5.9% 3.3%
 Economic forecasts, the Great Recession and the auto industry.
Y = -0.07 + 2.83X

i Prediction (OECD, 2007)

Year GDP Growth rate % change auto sale
2008 2% -1.34%
2009 2.20% -0.77%

ii Prediction
Year GDP Growth rate % change auto sale
2008 1% -4.17%
2009 1.2% -3.60%
Prediction
Year GDP Growth rate % change auto sale
2008 0% -7.00%
2009 0.2% -6.43%
Prediction
Year GDP Growth rate % change auto sale
2008 -1% -9.83%
2009 -0.8% -9.26%

iii Actual Actual Real (Fed)

Year GDP Growth rate % change auto sale Real GDP % change auto sale
2008 -0.30% -7.85% 0.10% -17.99%
2009 -2.80% -14.92% -2.60% -21.16%
General Motors financial performance and the cycle
General Motors Case - Explore the Data
Net profit
Growth rates Growth rates of
1 1 1 2
Consumer IMF All-Commodity Growth rates of GM margin = Net
Year GM Revenue GM Net Income GM Unit Sales Nominal GDP 3 of GM Nominal GDP
Confidence Index4 Unit Sales (%) income/
Revenue (%) (%)
Revenue
1991 $123,109 -$4,453 7310 $6,174 77.6 n/a -3.6%
1992 $132,242 -$23,498 7827 $6,539 77.3 54.7 7.4% 7.1% 5.9% -17.8%
1993 $138,220 $2,466 7851 $6,879 82.8 52.4 4.5% 0.3% 5.2% 1.8%
1994 $154,951 $4,901 8382 $7,309 92.3 54.6 12.1% 6.8% 6.3% 3.2%
1995 $160,254 $6,881 8,335 $7,664 92.2 59.1 3.4% -0.6% 4.9% 4.3%
1996 $163,885 $4,963 8,338 $8,100 93.6 62.0 2.3% 0.0% 5.7% 3.0%
1997 $172,580 $6,698 8,514 $8,609 103.2 59.4 5.3% 2.1% 6.3% 3.9%
1998 $155,445 $2,956 8,165 $9,089 104.6 47.6 -9.9% -4.1% 5.6% 1.9%
1999 $176,558 $6,002 8,651 $9,661 105.8 49.8 13.6% 6.0% 6.3% 3.4%
2000 $184,632 $4,452 8,597 $10,285 107.6 63.1 4.6% -0.6% 6.5% 2.4%
2001 $169,051 $601 8,560 $10,622 89.2 58.4 -8.4% -0.4% 3.3% 0.4%
2002 $177,867 $1,736 8,410 $10,978 89.6 58.2 5.2% -1.8% 3.3% 1.0%
2003 $185,837 $3,859 8,620 $11,511 87.6 65.0 4.5% 2.5% 4.9% 2.1%
2004 $195,351 $2,701 8,990 $12,275 95.2 80.3 5.1% 4.3% 6.6% 1.4%
2005 $193,050 -$10,417 9,177 $13,094 88.6 100.0 -1.2% 2.1% 6.7% -5.4%
2006 $204,467 -$1,978 9,095 $13,856 87.3 120.8 5.9% -0.9% 5.8% -1.0%
2007 $179,984 -$38,732 9,370 $14,478 85.6 134.9 -12.0% 3.0% 4.5% -21.5%
2008 $148,979 -$30,860 8,356 $14,719 63.8 172.4 -17.2% -10.8% 1.7% -20.7%

Notes & Sources:

[1] GM Annual Reports accessed via SEC.gov, most current revision, $M and Units (000s).
[2] Nominal GDP from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, $B.
[3] The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
[4] All-Commodity Index Value from International Monetary Fund; average of monthly values, 2005 = 100.

Net profit
IMF All- Growth rates of Growth rates of Growth rates of
margin = Net
Commodity GM Revenue GM Unit Sales Nominal GDP
income/
Index4 (%) (%) (%)
Revenue
IMF All-Commodity Index4
1

Growth rates of GM Revenue (%)

-0.610909357 1

Growth rates of GM Unit Sales (%)

-0.484392533 0.700279005 1

Growth rates of Nominal GDP (%)

-0.451626092 0.650631219 0.686280523 1
Net profit margin = Net income/
Revenue -0.71588909 0.572319755 0.171220178 0.424767108 1