Oil Rate (Prod.

Day) NP Jumlah
Date NP(Bbl)
bbl/d (MBbl) sumur
1-Nov-97 788.9 10.3 10300 1
1-Dec-97 740.6 30.2 30200 1
1-Jan-98 727.95 49.2 49200 1
1-Feb-98 438.15 59.9 59900 1 100000
1-Mar-98 440.45 71.7 71700 1
1-Apr-98 477.25 84.2 84200 1 Tr
1-May-98 718.75 103.6 103600 1
1-Jun-98 845.25 125.6 125600 1 10000
1-Jul-98 948.75 151.2 151200 1
1-Aug-98 1018.9 178.6 178600 1
1-Sep-98 986.7 204.3 204300 1 1000
1-Oct-98 1038.45 232.3

Oil Rate (bbl/d)

232300 1
1-Nov-98 979.8 257.9 257900 1
1-Dec-98 2523.1 320.2 320200 2
1-Jan-99 3429.3 412.6 412600 2 100
1-Feb-99 4010.05 502.1 502100 3
1-Mar-99 4410.25 607 607000 3
1-Apr-99 5595.9 748.8 748800 3 10
1-May-99 6589.5 922.6 922600 3
1-Jun-99 6441.15 1083.8 1083800 3
1-Jul-99 5930.55 1243.5 1243500 4
1-Aug-99 5766.1 1398.7 1398700 4 1
19-Jun-97 15-Mar-00
1-Sep-99 5690.2 1536.9 1536900 5
1-Oct-99 9872.75 1737 1737000 6
1-Nov-99 8602 1961.4 1961400 5
1-Dec-99 11459.75 2233.7 2233700 7
1-Jan-00 12336.05 2540.9 2540900 8
1-Feb-00 12224.5 2839.6 2839600 9
1-Mar-00 11132 3139.7 3139700 9
1-Apr-00 10877.85 3409.5 3409500 10
1-May-00 9450.7 3661.5 3661500 9
1-Jun-00 8587.05 3873 3873000 10
1-Jul-00 8909.05 4074.2 4074200 12
1-Aug-00 9528.9 4324.6 4324600 13
1-Sep-00 7498 4520.7 4520700 10
1-Oct-00 7093.2 4711.5 4711500 12
1-Nov-00 5960.45 4864 4864000 13
1-Dec-00 6169.75 5019.9 5019900 13
1-Jan-01 5614.3 5168.3 5168300 12
1-Feb-01 5304.95 5292 5292000 13
1-Mar-01 4922 5422.9 5422900 12
1-Apr-01 4610.35 5542 5542000 12
1-May-01 4173.35 5653.6 5653600 12
1-Jun-01 3602.95 5745.5 5745500 12
1-Jul-01 3792.7 5841.9 5841900 13
1-Aug-01 3577.65 5938.1 5938100 12
1-Sep-01 4528.7 6046 6046000 13
1-Oct-01 4281.45 6160.4 6160400 13
1-Nov-01 4015.8 6264.6 6264600 13
1-Dec-01 4028.45 6366.3 6366300 13
1-Jan-02 3853.65 6463.7 6463700 13
1-Feb-02 3246.45 6540.3 6540300 13
1-Mar-02 2858.9 6614 6614000 13
1-Apr-02 2635.8 6680 6680000 13
1-May-02 2646.15 6742.4 6742400 13
1-Jun-02 2594.4 6798.6 6798600 13
1-Jul-02 2618.55 6860.6 6860600 13
1-Aug-02 2183.85 6915.2 6915200 11
1-Sep-02 2202.25 6966 6966000 15
1-Oct-02 2348.3 7019.7 7019700 14
1-Nov-02 1626.1 7058.1 7058100 13
1-Dec-02 1565.15 7098 7098000 14
1-Jan-03 1220.15 7130.3 7130300 13
1-Feb-03 1308.7 7161.5 7161500 15
1-Mar-03 1500.75 7196 7196000 16
1-Apr-03 1689.35 7238.8 7238800 16
1-May-03 1670.95 7281.2 7281200 18
1-Jun-03 1581.25 7322.3 7322300 14
1-Jul-03 1491.55 7359.4 7359400 16
1-Aug-03 1738.8 7405.8 7405800 16
1-Sep-03 1703.15 7449.8 7449800 15
1-Oct-03 1779.05 7495.9 7495900 16
1-Nov-03 1666.35 7536.1 7536100 17
1-Dec-03 1683.6 7580.5 7580500 15
1-Jan-04 1677.85 7623.9 7623900 15
1-Feb-04 1657.15 7664.9 7664900 14
1-Mar-04 1552.5 7704.9 7704900 13
1-Apr-04 1685.9 7746.3 7746300 15
1-May-04 1784.8 7793.4 7793400 14
1-Jun-04 1896.35 7841.5 7841500 14
1-Jul-04 1761.8 7888.2 7888200 14
1-Aug-04 1639.9 7931.7 7931700 15
1-Sep-04 2028.6 7984.2 7984200 16
1-Oct-04 1827.35 8030.4 8030400 16
1-Nov-04 2319.55 8089.8 8089800 16
1-Dec-04 2333.35 8151.8 8151800 17
1-Jan-05 2057.35 8206.8 8206800 17
1-Feb-05 2022.85 8254.2 8254200 18
1-Mar-05 2411.55 8315.3 8315300 18
1-Apr-05 2525.4 8378 8378000 18
1-May-05 2578.3 8445.2 8445200 17
1-Jun-05 2241.35 8502.9 8502900 17
1-Jul-05 2308.05 8560.7 8560700 17
1-Aug-05 2507 8623.3 8623300 15
1-Sep-05 2577.15 8687.4 8687400 16
1-Oct-05 2061.95 8740.8 8740800 16
1-Nov-05 2201.1 8792.8 8792800 16
1-Dec-05 1695.1 8833.1 8833100 16
1-Jan-06 1498.45 8873 8873000 16
1-Feb-06 1445.55 8907.5 8907500 16
1-Mar-06 1424.85 8945.5 8945500 16
1-Apr-06 1301.8 8978.4 8978400 16
1-May-06 1621.5 9021.1 9021100 16
1-Jun-06 1277.65 9052.7 9052700 16
1-Jul-06 1216.7 9082.6 9082600 16
1-Aug-06 1251.2 9115.5 9115500 16
1-Sep-06 1355.85 9149 9149000 16
1-Oct-06 1324.8 9183 9183000 16
1-Nov-06 1273.05 9215.2 9215200 14
1-Dec-06 1156.9 9244.5 9244500 13
1-Jan-07 907.35 9266.7 9266700 13
1-Feb-07 934.95 9288.2 9288200 13
1-Mar-07 1002.8 9312.5 9312500 15
1-Apr-07 1010.85 9336.9 9336900 14
1-May-07 1151.15 9360.1 9360100 16
1-Jun-07 1037.3 9385.9 9385900 11
1-Jul-07 1089.05 9411.5 9411500 16
1-Aug-07 1107.45 9439.9 9439900 16
1-Sep-07 1060.3 9464.5 9464500 16
1-Oct-07 944.15 9489.3 9489300 13
1-Nov-07 956.8 9509.2 9509200 15
1-Dec-07 841.8 9531.4 9531400 12
1-Jan-08 811.9 9550.5 9550500 13
1-Feb-08 759 9565.3 9565300 12
1-Mar-08 941.85 9583.6 9583600 15
1-Apr-08 930.35 9606.4 9606400 14
1-May-08 768.2 9623.9 9623900 15
1-Jun-08 1026.95 9647.8 9647800 15
1-Jul-08 1176.45 9678.7 9678700 15
1-Aug-08 1439.8 9717.3 9717300 15
1-Sep-08 1383.45 9750.9 9750900 15
1-Oct-08 1177.6 9779.3 9779300 14
1-Nov-08 1114.35 9806.4 9806400 14
1-Dec-08 1097.1 9831.1 9831100 17
1-Jan-09 1098.25 9859.7 9859700 17
1-Feb-09 1063.75 9884.3 9884300 17
1-Mar-09 1131.6 9914.1 9914100 17
1-Apr-09 1107.45 9942.2 9942200 17
1-May-09 1128.15 9971.8 9971800 17
1-Jun-09 1099.4 9999.6 9999600 17
1-Jul-09 1143.1 10030.3 10030300 17
1-Aug-09 1117.8 10059.5 10059500 17
1-Sep-09 1139.65 10088.7 10088700 19
1-Oct-09 1056.85 10117 10117000 19
1-Nov-09 1021.2 10143.1 10143100 19
1-Dec-09 946.45 10167.1 10167100 19
1-Jan-10 975.2 10192 10192000 19
1-Feb-10 961.4 10213.8 10213800 19
1-Mar-10 877.45 10235.4 10235400 19
1-Apr-10 900.45 10258.5 10258500 19
1-May-10 883.2 10281.8 10281800 19
1-Jun-10 871.7 10303.5 10303500 19
1-Jul-10 806.15 10324.4 10324400 19
1-Aug-10 887.8 10346.4 10346400 19
1-Sep-10 878.6 10366.5 10366500 19
1-Oct-10 840.65 10387.7 10387700 19
1-Nov-10 830.3 10407.2 10407200 19
1-Dec-10 693.45 10425 10425000 19
1-Jan-11 733.7 10443.2 10443200 20
1-Feb-11 749.8 10460.6 10460600 17
1-Mar-11 798.1 10479.2 10479200 20
1-Apr-11 609.5 10491.8 10491800 18
1-May-11 640.55 10507.5 10507500 15
1-Jun-11 676.2 10523.3 10523300 19
1-Jul-11 663.55 10539 10539000 14
1-Aug-11 642.85 10553.9 10553900 17
1-Sep-11 724.5 10571.3 10571300 16
1-Oct-11 717.6 10589.7 10589700 16
1-Nov-11 601.45 10604.9 10604900 15
1-Dec-11 681.95 10622.6 10622600 17
1-Jan-12 690 10640.1 10640100 15
1-Feb-12 641.7 10655.1 10655100 16
1-Mar-12 773.95 10672.2 10672200 17
1-Apr-12 876.3 10692.2 10692200 19
1-May-12 1141.95 10720.6 10720600 19
1-Jun-12 997.05 10738.2 10738200 19
1-Jul-12 731.4 10753.1 10753100 16
1-Aug-12 624.45 10767.5 10767500 14
1-Sep-12 888.95 10789.5 10789500 18
1-Oct-12 983.25 10814 10814000 19
1-Nov-12 886.65 10833.9 10833900 18
1-Dec-12 1067.2 10860.8 10860800 18
1-Jan-13 1181.05 10889.9 10889900 18
1-Feb-13 997.05 10910.6 10910600 15
1-Mar-13 932.65 10932.6 10932600 12
1-Apr-13 846.4 10953.6 10953600 11
1-May-13 794.65 10971.3 10971300 12
1-Jun-13 556.6 10985.1 10985100 10
1-Jul-13 532.45 10998.1 10998100 11
1-Aug-13 702.65 11016.1 11016100 12
1-Sep-13 838.35 11037.1 11037100 10
1-Oct-13 1012 11064.4 11064400 10
1-Nov-13 963.7 11089.6 11089600 10
1-Dec-13 1066.05 11114.2 11114200 13
1-Jan-14 1077.55 11135.4 11135400 11
1-Feb-14 841.8 11155 11155000 10
1-Mar-14 802.7 11174.7 11174700 11
1-Apr-14 802.7 11195.5 11195500 10
1-May-14 868.25 11217.8 11217800 11
1-Jun-14 739.45 11236.3 11236300 11
1-Jul-14 985.55 11262.7 11262700 12
1-Aug-14 961.4 11288.3 11288300 11
1-Sep-14 884.35 11310.7 11310700 12
1-Oct-14 848.7 11333.6 11333600 11
1-Nov-14 966 11358.2 11358200 12
1-Dec-14 1214.4 11388.9 11388900 13
1-Jan-15 1407.6 11425.2 11425200 13
1-Feb-15 1374.25 11455.2 11455200 12
 Grafik Produksi
100000

Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3

10000

1000
Q VS t
Juml ah Sumur
Trend 1
Trend 2
100 Trend 3

10

1
19-Jun-97 15-Mar-00 10-Dec-02 5-Sep-05 1-Jun-08 26-Feb-11 22-Nov-13 18-Aug-16

Date (Bulan)
Q VS t
Juml ah Sumur
Trend 1
Trend 2
Trend 3
 Input Data Resort

Metode L

Trend 1 Tre
Date Oil Rate (Prod. Day) bbl/d t Tanggal Qo (BOPD)
1-Sep-01 4528.7 1 1-Sep-01 4528.7
1-Oct-01 4281.45 2 1-Oct-01 4281.45
1-Nov-01 4015.8 3 1-Nov-01 4015.8
1-Dec-01 4028.45 4 1-Dec-01 4028.45
1-Jan-02 3853.65 5 1-Jan-02 3853.65
1-Feb-02 3246.45 6 1-Feb-02 3246.45
1-Mar-02 2858.9 7 1-Mar-02 2858.9
1-Apr-02 2635.8 8 1-Apr-02 2635.8
1-May-02 2646.15 9 1-May-02 2646.15
1-Jun-02 2594.4 10 1-Jun-02 2594.4

Trend 2 Tre
Date Oil Rate (Prod. Day) bbl/d t Tanggal Qo (BOPD)
1-Sep-05 2577.15 1 1-Sep-05 2577.15
1-Oct-05 2061.95 2 1-Oct-05 2061.95
1-Nov-05 2201.1 3 1-Nov-05 2201.1
1-Dec-05 1695.1 4 1-Dec-05 1695.1
1-Jan-06 1498.45 5 1-Jan-06 1498.45
1-Feb-06 1445.55 6 1-Feb-06 1445.55
1-Mar-06 1424.85 7 1-Mar-06 1424.85
1-Apr-06 1301.8 8 1-Apr-06 1301.8
1-May-06 1621.5 9 1-May-06 1621.5
1-Jun-06 1277.65 10 1-Jun-06 1277.65
1-Jul-06 1216.7 11 1-Jul-06 1216.7

Trend 3 Tre
Date Oil Rate (Prod. Day) bbl/d t Tanggal Qo (BOPD)
1-Sep-09 1139.65 1 1-Sep-09 1139.65
1-Oct-09 1056.85 2 1-Oct-09 1056.85
1-Nov-09 1021.2 3 1-Nov-09 1021.2
1-Dec-09 946.45 4 1-Dec-09 946.45
1-Jan-10 975.2 5 1-Jan-10 975.2
1-Feb-10 961.4 6 1-Feb-10 961.4
1-Mar-10 877.45 7 1-Mar-10 877.45
1-Apr-10 900.45 8 1-Apr-10 900.45
1-May-10 883.2 9 1-May-10 883.2
1-Jun-10 871.7 10 1-Jun-10 871.7
1-Jul-10 806.15 11 1-Jul-10 806.15
1-Aug-10 887.8 12 1-Aug-10 887.8
1-Sep-10 878.6 13 1-Sep-10 878.6
1-Oct-10 840.65 14 1-Oct-10 840.65
1-Nov-10 830.3 15 1-Nov-10 830.3
1-Dec-10 693.45 16 1-Dec-10 693.45
 Resort/Resolusi

Metode Loss Rasio

Trend 1
dt (t1 - t2) dq (q1 - q2) D (-(dq/dt)/q) a (-(q/(dq/dt)) da (a1 - a2) b (da/dt)

-1 247.25 0.05775 17.3163

-1 265.65 0.06615 15.1169 2.1994 -2.1994
-1 -12.65 -0.00314 -318.4545 333.5714 -333.5714
-1 174.8 0.04536 22.0461 -340.5006 340.5006
-1 607.2 0.18704 5.3466 16.6995 -16.6995
-1 387.55 0.13556 7.3769 -2.0303 2.0303
-1 223.1 0.08464 11.8144 -4.4376 4.4376
-1 -10.35 -0.00391 -255.6667 267.4811 -267.4811
-1 51.75 0.01995 50.1333 -305.8000 305.8000
∑D = 0.58939 ∑b = 32.8171
Di = 0.05894 b= 3.2817

Trend 2
dt (t1 - t2) dq (q1 - q2) D (-(dq/dt)/q) a (-(q/(dq/dt)) da (a1 - a2) b (da/dt)

-1 515.2 0.24986 4.0022

-1 -139.15 -0.06322 -15.8182 19.8204 -19.8204
-1 506 0.29851 3.3500 -19.1682 19.1682
-1 196.65 0.13124 7.6199 -4.2699 4.2699
-1 52.9 0.03660 27.3261 -19.7062 19.7062
-1 20.7 0.01453 68.8333 -41.5072 41.5072
-1 123.05 0.09452 10.5794 58.2539 -58.2539
-1 -319.7 -0.19716 -5.0719 15.6514 -15.6514
-1 343.85 0.26913 3.7157 -8.7877 8.7877
-1 60.95 0.05009 19.9623 -16.2465 16.2465
∑D = 0.88409 ∑b = 15.9600
Di = 0.08037 b= 1.4509

Trend 3
dt (t1 - t2) dq (q1 - q2) D (-(dq/dt)/q) a (-(q/(dq/dt)) da (a1 - a2) b (da/dt)

-1 82.8 0.07835 12.7639

-1 35.65 0.03491 28.6452 -15.8813 15.8813
-1 74.75 0.07898 12.6615 15.9836 -15.9836
-1 -28.75 -0.02948 -33.9200 46.5815 -46.5815
-1 13.8 0.01435 69.6667 -103.5867 103.5867
-1 83.95 0.09567 10.4521 59.2146 -59.2146
-1 -23 -0.02554 -39.1500 49.6021 -49.6021
-1 17.25 0.01953 51.2000 -90.3500 90.3500
-1 11.5 0.01319 75.8000 -24.6000 24.6000
-1 65.55 0.08131 12.2982 63.5018 -63.5018
-1 -81.65 -0.09197 -10.8732 23.1715 -23.1715
-1 9.2 0.01047 95.5000 -106.3732 106.3732
-1 37.95 0.04514 22.1515 73.3485 -73.3485
-1 10.35 0.01247 80.2222 -58.0707 58.0707
-1 136.85 0.19735 5.0672 75.1550 -75.1550
∑D = 0.53473 ∑b = -7.6967
Di = 0.03342 b= 0.4810
 Exponential Decline (b = 0)

𝐷�=𝑙𝑛
((𝑞�/𝑞𝑡))/𝑡
���������= "qie-Di.t "

b= 0b= 0.1
t Tanggal Qo (BOPD) Di = 0.0619 Di = 0.0637
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
0 1-Sep-01 4528.7 4528.7 0 4528.7 0
1 1-Oct-01 4281.45 4256.8829 0.1418 4250.2693 0.2287
2 1-Nov-01 4015.8 4001.3806 0.0520 3990.5532 0.1597
3 1-Dec-01 4028.45 3761.2137 18.9873 3748.1878 20.9560
4 1-Jan-02 3853.65 3535.4619 28.6366 3521.9162 31.2464
5 1-Feb-02 3246.45 3323.2600 1.7753 3310.5796 1.2423
6 1-Mar-02 2858.9 3123.7946 22.4628 3113.1091 20.7581
7 1-Apr-02 2635.8 2936.3014 30.7533 2928.5181 29.2584
8 1-May-02 2646.15 2760.0616 4.7013 2755.8956 4.3703
9 1-Jun-02 2594.4 2594.4 0 2594.4 0.0000
∑x² 107.5104 ∑x² 108.2200

b= 0b= 0.1
t Tanggal Qo (BOPD) Di = 0.0751 Di = 0.0779
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
0 1-Sep-05 2577.15 2577.15 0 2577.15 0
1 1-Oct-05 2061.95 2390.8046 45.2339 2384.6295 43.6638
2 1-Nov-05 2201.1 2217.9332 0.1278 2207.8110 0.0204
3 1-Dec-05 1695.1 2057.5616 63.8515 2045.3079 59.9644
4 1-Jan-06 1498.45 1908.7859 88.2108 1895.8651 83.3069
5 1-Feb-06 1445.55 1770.7677 59.7292 1758.3457 55.6439
6 1-Mar-06 1424.85 1642.7292 28.8979 1631.7197 26.2270
7 1-Apr-06 1301.8 1523.9488 32.3830 1515.0523 30.0165
8 1-May-06 1621.5 1413.7569 30.5266 1407.4952 32.5387
9 1-Jun-06 1277.65 1311.5327 0.8753 1308.2780 0.7170
10 1-Jul-06 1216.7 1216.7 0.0000 1216.7 0.0000
∑x² 349.8360 ∑x² 332.0986

b= 0b= 0.1
t Tanggal Qo (BOPD) Di = 0.0331 Di = 0.0340
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
0 1-Sep-09 1139.65 1139.65 0 1139.65 0
1 1-Oct-09 1056.85 1102.5232 1.8921 1101.6647 1.8230
 2 1-Nov-09 1021.2 1066.6059 1.9330 1065.0675 1.8068
3 1-Dec-09 946.45 1031.8587 7.0694 1029.8031 6.7467
4 1-Jan-10 975.2 998.2435 0.5319 995.8189 0.4269
5 1-Feb-10 961.4 965.7233 0.0194 963.0642 0.0029
6 1-Mar-10 877.45 934.2626 3.4548 931.4908 3.1352
7 1-Apr-10 900.45 903.8268 0.0126 901.0523 0.0004
8 1-May-10 883.2 874.3825 0.0889 871.7043 0.1516
9 1-Jun-10 871.7 845.8974 0.7871 843.4043 0.9493
10 1-Jul-10 806.15 818.3403 0.1816 816.1117 0.1216
11 1-Aug-10 887.8 791.6809 11.6700 789.7875 12.1633
12 1-Sep-10 878.6 765.8900 16.5866 764.3943 17.0631
13 1-Oct-10 840.65 740.9394 13.4184 739.8963 13.7199
14 1-Nov-10 830.3 716.8015 17.9714 716.2591 18.1573
15 1-Dec-10 693.45 693.45 0 693.45 0.0000
∑x² 75.6170 ∑x² 76.2680
 Hyperbolic Decline (b = 0,1 - 0,9)
Di = ((𝑞�/(𝑞ᵼ
))ᵇ−1)/
qforecast = qi(1+b Di.t)-1/b
(𝑏.𝑡)
Metode Trial Error & x² Chisquare Test

b= 0.2 b = 0.3 b = 0.4 b = 0.5

Di = 0.0655 Di = 0.0674 Di = 0.0693 Di = 0.0714
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
4528.7 0 4528.7 0 4528.7 0 4528.7 0
4243.4741 0.3399 4236.4942 0.4771 4229.3266 0.6424 4221.9685 0.8380
3979.5359 0.3305 3968.3315 0.5678 3956.9436 0.8754 3945.3762 1.2570
3735.0545 23.0468 3721.8226 25.2619 3708.5013 27.6034 3695.1001 30.0728
3508.3770 33.9797 3494.8550 36.8352 3481.3607 39.8118 3467.9045 42.9076
3298.0090 0.8060 3285.5565 0.4655 3273.2298 0.2191 3261.0364 0.0652
3102.5978 19.1416 3092.2642 17.6113 3082.1111 16.1653 3072.1411 14.8013
2920.9173 27.8309 2913.4976 26.4685 2906.2576 25.1689 2899.1954 23.9298
2751.8549 4.0604 2747.9364 3.7703 2744.1368 3.4989 2740.4530 3.2451
2594.4 0.0000 2594.4 0.0000 2594.4 0.0000 2594.4 0
∑x² 109.5357 ∑x² 111.4576 ∑x² 113.9852 ∑x² 117.11699

b= 0.2 b = 0.3 b = 0.4 b = 0.5

Di = 0.0810 Di = 0.0842 Di = 0.0875 Di = 0.0911
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
2577.15 0 2577.15 0 2577.15 0 2577.15 0
2378.2213 42.0598 2371.5742 40.4234 2364.6831 38.7567 2357.5428 37.0619
2197.4372 0.0061 2186.8161 0.0933 2175.9531 0.2906 2164.8549 0.6068
2032.8961 56.1299 2020.3405 52.3582 2007.6563 48.6595 1994.8599 45.0438
1882.9205 78.5044 1869.9707 73.8127 1857.0341 69.2408 1844.1294 64.7971
1746.0282 51.7100 1733.8310 47.9320 1721.7698 44.3133 1709.8588 40.8567
1620.9067 23.7140 1610.2997 21.3573 1599.9071 19.1542 1589.7360 17.1018
1506.3920 27.7869 1497.9697 25.6898 1489.7860 23.7207 1481.8410 21.8746
1401.4498 34.5514 1395.6166 36.5597 1389.9911 38.5588 1384.5687 40.5444
1305.1594 0.5798 1302.1718 0.4618 1299.3101 0.3611 1296.5691 0.2761
1216.7 0.0000 1216.7 0.0000 1216.7 0 1216.7 0
∑x² 315.0423 ∑x² 298.6881 ∑x² 283.0557 ∑x² 268.16321

b= 0.2 b = 0.3 b = 0.4 b = 0.5

Di = 0.0348 Di = 0.0357 Di = 0.0366 Di = 0.0376
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0
1100.7820 1.7533 1099.8744 1.6830 1098.9413 1.6122 1097.9821 1.5409
 1063.4939 1.6820 1061.8847 1.5588 1060.2396 1.4375 1058.5584 1.3184
1027.7113 6.4253 1025.5833 6.1059 1023.4196 5.7887 1021.2204 5.4744
993.3637 0.3321 990.8788 0.2481 988.3651 0.1754 985.8237 0.1145
960.3845 0.0011 957.6856 0.0144 954.9689 0.0433 952.2359 0.0882
928.7105 2.8293 925.9235 2.5377 923.1313 2.2606 920.3359 1.9984
898.2819 0.0052 895.5173 0.0272 892.7602 0.0662 890.0124 0.1224
869.0418 0.2307 866.3965 0.3259 863.7698 0.4371 861.1632 0.5639
840.9364 1.1254 838.4948 1.3150 836.0804 1.5175 833.6943 1.7326
813.9148 0.0741 811.7500 0.0386 809.6179 0.0149 807.5191 0.0023
787.9284 12.6589 786.1037 13.1562 784.3134 13.6546 782.5575 14.1536
762.9313 17.5366 761.5008 18.0069 760.1023 18.4734 758.7356 18.9361
738.8798 14.0174 737.8895 14.3107 736.9248 14.5997 735.9852 14.8844
715.7326 18.3388 715.2213 18.5161 714.7249 18.6892 714.2429 18.8581
693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000
∑x² 77.0103 ∑x² 77.8443 ∑x² 78.7702 ∑x² 79.7882
 Harmonic Decline (b = 1)

Di = (( 𝑞�/𝑞ᵼ )
Di.t)-1/b −1)/𝑡 qforecast = qi(1

b= 0.6 b = 0.7 b = 0.8 b =

Di = 0.0735 Di = 0.0757 Di = 0.0780 Di =
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast =
4528.7 0 4528.7 0 4528.7 0 4528.7
4214.4175 1.0662 4206.6711 1.3293 4198.7272 1.6298 4190.5840
3933.6339 1.7163 3921.7217 2.2568 3909.6450 2.8823 3897.4100
3681.6288 32.6717 3668.0975 35.4009 3654.5165 38.2612 3640.8963
3454.4969 46.1205 3441.1479 49.4480 3427.8674 52.8873 3414.6653
3248.9832 0.0020 3237.0767 0.0271 3225.3230 0.1384 3213.7277
3062.3562 13.5172 3052.7579 12.3105 3043.3474 11.1788 3034.1257
2892.3089 22.7489 2885.5960 21.6240 2879.0541 20.5528 2872.6807
2736.8816 3.0079 2733.4197 2.7863 2730.0639 2.5793 2726.8114
2594.4 0 2594.4 0.0000 2594.4 0 2594.4
∑x² 120.8506032 ∑x² 125.18289 ∑x² 130.1099 ∑x²

b= 0.6 b = 0.7 b = 0.8 b =

Di = 0.0948 Di = 0.0987 Di = 0.1029 Di =
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast =
2577.15 0 2577.15 0 2577.15 0 2577.15
2350.1489 35.3419 2342.4975 33.5996 2334.5850 31.8386 2326.4089
2153.5293 1.0508 2141.9855 1.6314 2130.2335 2.3575 2118.2849
1981.9681 41.5210 1968.9986 38.1008 1955.9695 34.7924 1942.8994
1831.2748 60.4892 1818.4883 56.3240 1805.7876 52.3076 1793.1897
1698.1119 37.5638 1686.5415 34.4355 1675.1593 31.4719 1663.9760
1579.7927 15.1965 1570.0823 13.4340 1560.6086 11.8098 1551.3749
1474.1337 20.1467 1466.6627 18.5317 1459.4256 17.0244 1452.4197
1379.3442 42.5125 1374.3125 44.4598 1369.4682 46.3830 1364.8058
1293.9440 0.2052 1291.4299 0.1470 1289.0221 0.1003 1286.7162
1216.7 0.0000 1216.7 0 1216.7 0.0000 1216.7
∑x² 254.0274869 ∑x² 240.66373 ∑x² 228.0855 ∑x²

b= 0.6 b = 0.7 b = 0.8 b =

Di = 0.0386 Di = 0.0396 Di = 0.0407 Di =
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast =
1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65
1096.9963 1.4692 1095.9831 1.3973 1094.9421 1.3252 1093.8724
 1056.8407 1.2019 1055.0862 1.0883 1053.2950 0.9780 1051.4667
1018.9863 5.1635 1016.7176 4.8563 1014.4150 4.5536 1012.0790
983.2556 0.0660 980.6620 0.0304 978.0441 0.0083 975.4033
949.4882 0.1494 946.7274 0.2274 943.9551 0.3224 941.1730
917.5387 1.7515 914.7418 1.5203 911.9466 1.3049 909.1551
887.2753 0.1956 884.5508 0.2858 881.8403 0.3927 879.1453
858.5780 0.7061 856.0155 0.8633 853.4769 1.0351 850.9633
831.3374 1.9597 829.0105 2.1983 826.7143 2.4479 824.4496
805.4538 0.0006 803.4225 0.0093 801.4254 0.0279 799.4627
780.8360 14.6526 779.1487 15.1513 777.4956 15.6490 775.8764
757.4003 19.3945 756.0959 19.8484 754.8219 20.2975 753.5780
735.0701 15.1647 734.1790 15.4405 733.3113 15.7117 732.4665
713.7749 19.0229 713.3206 19.1838 712.8795 19.3407 712.4511
693.45 0.0000 693.45 0 693.45 0.0000 693.45
∑x² 80.8983 ∑x² 82.1006 ∑x² 83.3949 ∑x²
Harmonic Decline (b = 1)

qforecast = qi(1+Di.t)-1

Perhitungan laju alir Forecast lanjutan dari masing-masing trend

0.9 b = 1 b= 0
0.0804 Di = 0.0828 t Tanggal Di = 0.0619
x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
0 4528.7 0 0 1-Sep-01 4528.7 0
1.9703 4182.2398 2.3534 1 1-Oct-01 4256.8829 0.1418
3.5963 3885.0230 4.4022 2 1-Nov-01 4001.3806 0.0520
41.2530 3627.2475 44.3762 3 1-Dec-01 3761.2137 18.9873
56.4353 3401.5509 60.0883 4 1-Jan-02 3535.4619 28.6366
0.3332 3202.2959 0.6088 5 1-Feb-02 3323.2600 1.7753
10.1196 3025.0929 9.1303 6 1-Mar-02 3123.7946 22.4628
19.5331 2866.4731 18.5629 7 1-Apr-02 2936.3014 30.7533
2.3860 2723.6589 2.2057 8 1-May-02 2760.0616 4.7013
0.0000 2594.4 0 9 1-Jun-02 2594.4 0.00E+00
135.6267 ∑x² 141.72794 10 1-Jul-02 2438.6815 107.5104
11 1-Aug-02 2292.3094
12 1-Sep-02 2154.7227
13 1-Oct-02 2025.3941
0.9 b = 1 14 1-Nov-02 1903.8280
0.1072 Di = 0.1118 15 1-Dec-02 1789.5583
x² q Forecast = x² 16 1-Jan-03 1682.1473
0 2577.15 0 17 1-Feb-03 1581.1831
30.0629 2317.9671 28.2768 18 1-Mar-03 1486.2789
3.2377 2106.1522 4.2804 19 1-Apr-03 1397.0710
31.6046 1929.8073 28.5456 20 1-May-03 1313.2174
48.4452 1780.7110 44.7413 21 1-Jun-03 1234.3968
28.6722 1653.0007 26.0350 22 1-Jul-03 1160.3071
10.3189 1542.3830 8.9563 23 1-Aug-03 1090.6643
15.6197 1445.6416 14.3123 24 1-Sep-03 1025.2015
48.2793 1360.3196 50.1464 25 1-Oct-03 963.6679
0.0639 1284.5078 0.0366 26 1-Nov-03 905.8276
0.0000 1216.7 0 27 1-Dec-03 851.4589
216.304436 ∑x² 205.33061 28 1-Jan-04 800.3535
29 1-Feb-04 752.3155
30 1-Mar-04 707.1608
31 1-Apr-04 664.7163
0.9 b = 1 32 1-May-04 624.8194
0.0418 Di = 0.0429 33 1-Jun-04 587.3171
x² q Forecast = x² 34 1-Jul-04 552.0657
0 1139.65 0 35 1-Aug-04 518.9302
1.2530 1092.7737 1.1810 36 1-Sep-04 487.7835
 0.8712 1049.6013 0.7685 37 1-Oct-04 458.5062
4.2558 1009.7105 3.9634 38 1-Nov-04 430.9862
0.0000 972.7408 0.0062 39 1-Dec-04 405.1180
0.4347 938.3827 0.5646 40 1-Jan-05 380.8024
1.1057 906.3690 0.9227 41 1-Feb-05 357.9463
0.5163 876.4675 0.6562 42 1-Mar-05 336.4620
1.2212 848.4759 1.4211 43 1-Apr-05 316.2672
2.7080 822.2170 2.9780 44 1-May-05 297.2845
0.0559 797.5346 0.0931 45 1-Jun-05 279.4412
16.1455 774.2909 16.6402 46 1-Jul-05 262.6689
20.7417 752.3636 21.1807 47 1-Aug-05 246.9032
15.9784 731.6441 16.2405 48 1-Sep-05 232.0839
19.4938 712.0352 19.6431 49 1-Oct-05 218.1540
0.0000 693.45 0.0000 50 1-Nov-05 205.0601
84.7812 ∑x² 86.2592 51 1-Dec-05 192.7522
52 1-Jan-06 181.1830
53 1-Feb-06 170.3083
54 1-Mar-06 160.0862
55 1-Apr-06 150.4777
56 1-May-06 141.4458
57 1-Jun-06 132.9561
58 1-Jul-06 124.9760
59 1-Aug-06 117.4748
60 1-Sep-06 110.4238
61 1-Oct-06 103.7961
62 1-Nov-06 97.5661
63 1-Dec-06 91.7101
64 1-Jan-07 86.2056
65 1-Feb-07 81.0314
66 1-Mar-07 76.1679
67 1-Apr-07 71.5962
68 1-May-07 67.2989
69 1-Jun-07 63.2596
70 1-Jul-07 59.4627
71 1-Aug-07 55.8936
72 1-Sep-07 52.5389
73 1-Oct-07 49.3854
74 1-Nov-07 46.4213
75 1-Dec-07 43.6350
76 1-Jan-08 41.0160
77 1-Feb-08 38.5542
78 1-Mar-08 36.2401
79 1-Apr-08 34.0649
80 1-May-08 32.0203
81 1-Jun-08 30.0984
82 1-Jul-08 28.2919
83 1-Aug-08 26.5938
84 1-Sep-08 24.9976
85 1-Oct-08 23.4972
an dari masing-masing trend yang memiliki harga ∑x² terkecil pada Metode Trial Error & x² Chisquare Test untuk diplot dalam grafik

b= 1
t Tanggal Di = 0.1118 t Tanggal
q Forecast = x²
0 1-Sep-05 2577.15 0 0 1-Sep-09
1 1-Oct-05 2317.9671 28.2768 1 1-Oct-09
2 1-Nov-05 2106.1522 4.2804 2 1-Nov-09
3 1-Dec-05 1929.8073 28.5456 3 1-Dec-09
4 1-Jan-06 1780.7110 44.7413 4 1-Jan-10
5 1-Feb-06 1653.0007 26.0350 5 1-Feb-10
6 1-Mar-06 1542.3830 8.9563 6 1-Mar-10
7 1-Apr-06 1445.6416 14.3123 7 1-Apr-10
8 1-May-06 1360.3196 50.1464 8 1-May-10
9 1-Jun-06 1284.5078 0.0366 9 1-Jun-10
10 1-Jul-06 1216.7 0 10 1-Jul-10
11 1-Aug-06 1155.6922 205.3306 11 1-Aug-10
12 1-Sep-06 1100.5105 12 1-Sep-10
13 1-Oct-06 1050.3581 13 1-Oct-10
14 1-Nov-06 1004.5777 14 1-Nov-10
15 1-Dec-06 962.6213 15 1-Dec-10
16 1-Jan-07 924.0290 16 1-Jan-11
17 1-Feb-07 888.4118 17 1-Feb-11
18 1-Mar-07 855.4385 18 1-Mar-11
19 1-Apr-07 824.8252 19 1-Apr-11
20 1-May-07 796.3273 20 1-May-11
21 1-Jun-07 769.7329 21 1-Jun-11
22 1-Jul-07 744.8573 22 1-Jul-11
23 1-Aug-07 721.5393 23 1-Aug-11
24 1-Sep-07 699.6368 24 1-Sep-11
25 1-Oct-07 679.0250 25 1-Oct-11
26 1-Nov-07 659.5928 26 1-Nov-11
27 1-Dec-07 641.2419 27 1-Dec-11
28 1-Jan-08 623.8845 28 1-Jan-12
29 1-Feb-08 607.4420 29 1-Feb-12
30 1-Mar-08 591.8439 30 1-Mar-12
31 1-Apr-08 577.0268 31 1-Apr-12
32 1-May-08 562.9335 32 1-May-12
33 1-Jun-08 549.5122 33 1-Jun-12
34 1-Jul-08 536.7160 34 1-Jul-12
35 1-Aug-08 524.5022 35 1-Aug-12
36 1-Sep-08 512.8319 36 1-Sep-12
37 1-Oct-08 501.6696 37 1-Oct-12
38 1-Nov-08 490.9829 38 1-Nov-12
39 1-Dec-08 480.7421 39 1-Dec-12
40 1-Jan-09 470.9196 40 1-Jan-13
41 1-Feb-09 461.4906 41 1-Feb-13
42 1-Mar-09 452.4317 42 1-Mar-13
43 1-Apr-09 443.7216 43 1-Apr-13
44 1-May-09 435.3405 44 1-May-13
45 1-Jun-09 427.2702 45 1-Jun-13
46 1-Jul-09 419.4936 46 1-Jul-13
47 1-Aug-09 411.9951 47 1-Aug-13
48 1-Sep-09 404.7599 48 1-Sep-13
49 1-Oct-09 397.7745 49 1-Oct-13
50 1-Nov-09 391.0261 50 1-Nov-13
51 1-Dec-09 384.5028 51 1-Dec-13
52 1-Jan-10 378.1936 52 1-Jan-14
53 1-Feb-10 372.0881 53 1-Feb-14
54 1-Mar-10 366.1767 54 1-Mar-14
55 1-Apr-10 360.4501 55 1-Apr-14
56 1-May-10 354.8999 56 1-May-14
57 1-Jun-10 349.5180 57 1-Jun-14
58 1-Jul-10 344.2969 58 1-Jul-14
59 1-Aug-10 339.2295 59 1-Aug-14
60 1-Sep-10 334.3091 60 1-Sep-14
61 1-Oct-10 329.5293 61 1-Oct-14
62 1-Nov-10 324.8844 62 1-Nov-14
63 1-Dec-10 320.3686 63 1-Dec-14
64 1-Jan-11 315.9765 64 1-Jan-15
65 1-Feb-11 311.7033 65 1-Feb-15
66 1-Mar-11 307.5441 66 1-Mar-15
67 1-Apr-11 303.4945 67 1-Apr-15
68 1-May-11 299.5501 68 1-May-15
69 1-Jun-11 295.7069 69 1-Jun-15
70 1-Jul-11 291.9611 70 1-Jul-15
71 1-Aug-11 288.3090 71 1-Aug-15
72 1-Sep-11 284.7471 72 1-Sep-15
73 1-Oct-11 281.2722 73 1-Oct-15
74 1-Nov-11 277.8811 74 1-Nov-15
75 1-Dec-11 274.5707 75 1-Dec-15
76 1-Jan-12 271.3383 76 1-Jan-16
77 1-Feb-12 268.1812 77 1-Feb-16
78 1-Mar-12 265.0966 78 1-Mar-16
79 1-Apr-12 262.0822 79 1-Apr-16
80 1-May-12 259.1356 80 1-May-16
81 1-Jun-12 256.2545 81 1-Jun-16
82 1-Jul-12 253.4368 82 1-Jul-16
83 1-Aug-12 250.6803 83 1-Aug-16
84 1-Sep-12 247.9832 84 1-Sep-16
85 1-Oct-12 245.3435 85 1-Oct-16
Test untuk diplot dalam grafik
Grafik Kurva Decline Dari Masing-ma
b= 0 100000
Di = 0.0331
q Forecast = x²
1139.65 0
10000
1102.5232 1.8921
1066.6059 1.9330
1031.8587 7.0694
998.2435 0.5319 1000
Oil Rate (bbl/d)

965.7233 0.0194
934.2626 3.4548
903.8268 0.0126
100
874.3825 0.0889
845.8974 0.7871
818.3403 0.1816
791.6809 11.6700 10
765.8900 16.5866 Trend 1 Tre
740.9394 13.4184
716.8015 17.9714
1
693.45 0 19-Jun-97 15-Ma r-00 10-Dec-02 5-Sep-05 1-Jun-08 26
670.8592 75.617034 Date (Bulan)
649.0044
627.8615
607.4075
587.6197
568.4766
549.9572
532.0410
514.7085
497.9407
481.7191
466.0259
450.8440
436.1567
421.9479
408.2019
394.9038
382.0389
369.5930
357.5527
345.9045
334.6359
323.7343
313.1879
302.9851
293.1146
283.5657
274.3279
265.3910
256.7453
248.3812
240.2896
232.4616
224.8886
217.5623
210.4747
203.6180
196.9847
190.5674
184.3592
178.3533
172.5430
166.9220
161.4841
156.2234
151.1341
146.2105
141.4474
136.8394
132.3815
128.0689
123.8967
119.8605
115.9558
112.1782
108.5238
104.9883
101.5681
98.2593
95.0582
91.9615
88.9656
86.0674
83.2635
80.5510
77.9269
75.3882
72.9323
70.5563
68.2578
a Decline Dari Masing-masing Trend

Q VS t
Trend 1
Trend 2
Trend 3
Decl i ne 1
Decl i ne 2
Decl i ne 3

Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3

5-Sep-05 1-Jun-08 26-Feb-11 22-Nov-13 18-Aug-16

Date (Bulan)
 Input Data
Data Reservoir :
mᵌ = 0.000811
Vb = 171610000 mᵌ 139175.71
ф= 0.13
Swi = 0.38
SG = 0.8581
API = 33.436
Boi = 1.5 bbl/stb
Data Keekonomian :
Biaya Operasional/sumur/bulan = 9434.7008 US$/well/month
WI = 1
RI = 0
NRI = 1
SP = 52.16 US$/Bbl
PTR 40.5 % 0.405
jumlah sumur prduksi 12

Trend 2
Date Oil Rate (Prod. Day) bbl/d t
1-Sep-09 1139.65 1
1-Oct-09 1056.85 2
1-Nov-09 1021.2 3
1-Dec-09 946.45 4
1-Jan-10 975.2 5
1-Feb-10 961.4 6
1-Mar-10 877.45 7
1-Apr-10 900.45 8
1-May-10 883.2 9
1-Jun-10 871.7 10
1-Jul-10 806.15 11
1-Aug-10 887.8 12
1-Sep-10 878.6 13
1-Oct-10 840.65 14
1-Nov-10 830.3 15
1-Dec-10 693.45 16
Acre-feet
Acre-feet

Trend 1
Tanggal Qo (BOPD) dt (t1 - t2) dq (q1 - q2) D (-(dq/dt)/q) a (-(q/(dq/dt))
1-Sep-09 1139.65
1-Oct-09 1056.85 -1 82.8 0.07835 12.7639
1-Nov-09 1021.2 -1 35.65 0.03491 28.6452
1-Dec-09 946.45 -1 74.75 0.07898 12.6615
1-Jan-10 975.2 -1 -28.75 -0.02948 -33.9200
1-Feb-10 961.4 -1 13.8 0.01435 69.6667
1-Mar-10 877.45 -1 83.95 0.09567 10.4521
1-Apr-10 900.45 -1 -23 -0.02554 -39.1500
1-May-10 883.2 -1 17.25 0.01953 51.2000
1-Jun-10 871.7 -1 11.5 0.01319 75.8000
1-Jul-10 806.15 -1 65.55 0.08131 12.2982
1-Aug-10 887.8 -1 -81.65 -0.09197 -10.8732
1-Sep-10 878.6 -1 9.2 0.01047 95.5000
1-Oct-10 840.65 -1 37.95 0.04514 22.1515
1-Nov-10 830.3 -1 10.35 0.01247 80.2222
1-Dec-10 693.45 -1 136.85 0.19735 5.0672
∑D = 0.53473
Di = 0.03342

b= 0 forecast
Di = 0.0331 t tangal
qo (bopd) qo (bopm)

1-Feb-15 1374.25 41777.2

1 1-Mar-15 1329.4806 40416.2089
 2 1-Apr-15 1286.1696 39099.5552
3 1-May-15 1244.2696 37825.7947
4 1-Jun-15 1203.7345 36593.5299
5 1-Jul-15 1164.5200 35401.4091
6 1-Aug-15 1126.5830 34248.1244
7 1-Sep-15 1089.8819 33132.4107
8 1-Oct-15 1054.3764 32053.0440
9 1-Nov-15 1020.0276 31008.8403
10 1-Dec-15 986.7978 29998.6539
11 1-Jan-16 954.6506 29021.3768
12 1-Feb-16 923.5506 28075.9368
13 1-Mar-16 893.4637 27161.2967
14 1-Apr-16 864.3570 26276.4532
15 1-May-16 836.1985 25420.4355
16 1-Jun-16 808.9574 24592.3047
17 1-Jul-16 782.6037 23791.1522
18 1-Aug-16 757.1085 23016.0991
19 1-Sep-16 732.4439 22266.2952
20 1-Oct-16 708.5828 21540.9179
21 1-Nov-16 685.4991 20839.1716
22 1-Dec-16 663.1673 20160.2862
23 1-Jan-17 641.5631 19503.5172
24 1-Feb-17 620.6626 18868.1440
25 1-Mar-17 600.4431 18253.4695
26 1-Apr-17 580.8822 17658.8196
27 1-May-17 561.9586 17083.5417
28 1-Jun-17 543.6515 16527.0049
29 1-Jul-17 525.9407 15988.5986
30 1-Aug-17 508.8070 15467.7322
31 1-Sep-17 492.2314 14963.8342
32 1-Oct-17 476.1958 14476.3519
33 1-Nov-17 460.6826 14004.7505
34 1-Dec-17 445.6748 13548.5126
35 1-Jan-18 431.1558 13107.1378
36 1-Feb-18 417.1099 12680.1417
37 1-Mar-18 403.5216 12267.0561
38 1-Apr-18 390.3759 11867.4277
39 1-May-18 377.6585 11480.8182
40 1-Jun-18 365.3554 11106.8034
41 1-Jul-18 353.4531 10744.9730
42 1-Aug-18 341.9385 10394.9300
43 1-Sep-18 330.7990 10056.2906
44 1-Oct-18 320.0225 9728.6831
45 1-Nov-18 309.5970 9411.7483
46 1-Dec-18 299.5111 9105.1383
47 1-Jan-19 289.7538 8808.5169
48 1-Feb-19 280.3144 8521.5586
49 1-Mar-19 271.1825 8243.9486
50 1-Apr-19 262.3481 7975.3825
51 1-May-19 253.8015 7715.5655
52 1-Jun-19 245.5333 7464.2127
53 1-Jul-19 237.5345 7221.0484
54 1-Aug-19 229.7962 6985.8056
55 1-Sep-19 222.3101 6758.2265
56 1-Oct-19 215.0678 6538.0612
57 1-Nov-19 208.0615 6325.0684
58 1-Dec-19 201.2834 6119.0144
59 1-Jan-20 194.7261 5919.6730
60 1-Feb-20 188.3824 5726.8256
61 1-Mar-20 182.2454 5540.2607
62 1-Apr-20 176.3083 5359.7736
63 1-May-20 170.5647 5185.1663
64 1-Jun-20 165.0081 5016.2473
65 1-Jul-20 159.6326 4852.8311
66 1-Aug-20 154.4322 4694.7387
67 1-Sep-20 149.4012 4541.7965
68 1-Oct-20 144.5341 4393.8367
69 1-Nov-20 139.8256 4250.6971
70 1-Dec-20 135.2704 4112.2205
71 1-Jan-21 130.8637 3978.2552
72 1-Feb-21 126.6005 3848.6541
73 1-Mar-21 122.4762 3723.2751
74 1-Apr-21 118.4862 3601.9806
75 1-May-21 114.6262 3484.6376
76 1-Jun-21 110.8920 3371.1173
77 1-Jul-21 107.2794 3261.2952
78 1-Aug-21 103.7846 3155.0507
79 1-Sep-21 100.4035 3052.2675
80 1-Oct-21 97.1327 2952.8327
81 1-Nov-21 93.9683 2856.6372
82 1-Dec-21 90.9071 2763.5754
83 1-Jan-22 87.9456 2673.5454
84 1-Feb-22 85.0805 2586.4484
85 1-Mar-22 82.3088 2502.1887
 t Tanggal Qo (BOPD)
da (a1 - a2) b (da/dt)
0 1-Sep-09 1139.65
1 1-Oct-09 1056.85
-15.8813 15.8813 2 1-Nov-09 1021.2
15.9836 -15.9836 3 1-Dec-09 946.45
46.5815 -46.5815 4 1-Jan-10 975.2
-103.5867 103.5867 5 1-Feb-10 961.4
59.2146 -59.2146 6 1-Mar-10 877.45
49.6021 -49.6021 7 1-Apr-10 900.45
-90.3500 90.3500 8 1-May-10 883.2
-24.6000 24.6000 9 1-Jun-10 871.7
63.5018 -63.5018 10 1-Jul-10 806.15
23.1715 -23.1715 11 1-Aug-10 887.8
-106.3732 106.3732 12 1-Sep-10 878.6
73.3485 -73.3485 13 1-Oct-10 840.65
-58.0707 58.0707 14 1-Nov-10 830.3
75.1550 -75.1550 15 1-Dec-10 693.45
∑b = -7.6967
b= 0.4810

Hasil
NP Forecast(bbl) NP Total (bbl) dNP(bopm) ooip = 58017231.832872
Npactual = 11455200
11455200 Nplimit forecast = 1151250.1310087
41092.9482 11496292.9482 41092.9482 EUR = 12606450.131009
80847.1963 11536047.1963 39754.2482 ERR = 1151250.1310087
119306.3558 11574506.3558 38459.1594 RF = 21.7288
156512.6171 11611712.6171 37206.2613 73.6167
ta =
192506.7964 11647706.7964 35994.1793 6.13472406
227328.3801 11682528.3801 34821.5837 Qlimit = 120
261015.5684 11716215.5684 33687.1883
293605.3168 11748805.3168 32589.7484
325133.3770 11780333.3770 31528.0602
355634.3360 11810834.3360 30500.9590
385141.6542 11840341.6542 29507.3181 100000000

413687.7016 11868887.7016 28546.0474

441303.7939 11896503.7939 27616.0924
10000000
468020.2267 11923220.2267 26716.4328
493866.3085 11949066.3085 25846.0818
518870.3930 11974070.3930 25004.0845
1000000
543059.9103 11998259.9103 24189.5173
566461.3968 12021661.3968 23401.4865
589100.5246 12044300.5246 22639.1277
100000
611002.1291 12066202.1291 21901.6046
632190.2371 12087390.2371 21188.1080

Qo (bopd)
652688.0923 12107888.0923 20497.8552 10000
672518.1814 12127718.1814 19830.0891
691702.2584 12146902.2584 19184.0770
710261.3687 12165461.3687 18559.1103 1000
728215.8720 12183415.8720 17954.5034
745585.4650 12200785.4650 17369.5929
762389.2023 12217589.2023 16803.7373 100
778645.5181 12233845.5181 16256.3158
794372.2460 12249572.2460 15726.7279
809586.6385 12264786.6385 15214.3925 10
economic limit rate
824305.3861 12279505.3861 14718.7477
= 120 bopd
838544.6358 12293744.6358 14239.2496
852320.0081 12307520.0081 13775.3724 1
28-Oct-95 19-Apr-01
865646.6151 12320846.6151 13326.6070
878539.0764 12333739.0764 12892.4613
891011.5352 12346211.5352 12472.4588
903077.6742 12358277.6742 12066.1390
914750.7301 12369950.7301 11673.0559
926043.5086 12381243.5086 11292.7785
936968.3982 12392168.3982 10924.8895
947537.3836 12402737.3836 10568.9854
957762.0593 12412962.0593 10224.6757
967653.6420 12422853.6420 9891.5827
977222.9829 12432422.9829 9569.3410
986480.5800 12441680.5800 9257.5970
 995436.5889 12450636.5889 8956.0089
1004100.8346 12459300.8346 8664.2457
1012482.8220 12467682.8220 8381.9874
1020591.7464 12475791.7464 8108.9243
1028436.5033 12483636.5033 7844.7570
1036025.6988 12491225.6988 7589.1954
1043367.6582 12498567.6582 7341.9594
1050470.4359 12505670.4359 7102.7777
1057341.8239 12512541.8239 6871.3879
1063989.3601 12519189.3601 6647.5362
1070420.3371 12525620.3371 6430.9770
1076641.8098 12531841.8098 6221.4727
1082660.6033 12537860.6033 6018.7935
1088483.3203 12543683.3203 5822.7171
1094116.3486 12549316.3486 5633.0283
1099565.8677 12554765.8677 5449.5190
1104837.8557 12560037.8557 5271.9881
1109938.0963 12565138.0963 5100.2406
1114872.1845 12570072.1845 4934.0882
1119645.5331 12574845.5331 4773.3486
1124263.3785 12579463.3785 4617.8455
1128730.7867 12583930.7867 4467.4082
1133052.6585 12588252.6585 4321.8718
1137233.7352 12592433.7352 4181.0766
1141278.6033 12596478.6033 4044.8681
1145191.7003 12600391.7003 3913.0970
1148977.3189 12604177.3189 3785.6186
1152639.6120 12607839.6120 3662.2931
1156182.5973 12611382.5973 3542.9853
1159610.1614 12614810.1614 3427.5641
1162926.0645 12618126.0645 3315.9031
1166133.9442 12621333.9442 3207.8797
1169237.3197 12624437.3197 3103.3755
1172239.5953 12627439.5953 3002.2757
1175144.0648 12630344.0648 2904.4694
1177953.9142 12633153.9142 2809.8495
1180672.2262 12635872.2262 2718.3120
1183301.9827 12638501.9827 2629.7565
1185846.0687 12641046.0687 2544.0860
 b= 0b= 0.1 b = 0.2 b = 0.3
Di = 0.0331 Di = 0.0340 Di = 0.0348 Di = 0.0357
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0
1102.5232 1.8921 1101.6647 1.8230 1100.7820 1.7533 1099.8744 1.6830
1066.6059 1.9330 1065.0675 1.8068 1063.4939 1.6820 1061.8847 1.5588
1031.8587 7.0694 1029.8031 6.7467 1027.7113 6.4253 1025.5833 6.1059
998.2435 0.5319 995.8189 0.4269 993.3637 0.3321 990.8788 0.2481
965.7233 0.0194 963.0642 0.0029 960.3845 0.0011 957.6856 0.0144
934.2626 3.4548 931.4908 3.1352 928.7105 2.8293 925.9235 2.5377
903.8268 0.0126 901.0523 0.0004 898.2819 0.0052 895.5173 0.0272
874.3825 0.0889 871.7043 0.1516 869.0418 0.2307 866.3965 0.3259
845.8974 0.7871 843.4043 0.9493 840.9364 1.1254 838.4948 1.3150
818.3403 0.1816 816.1117 0.1216 813.9148 0.0741 811.7500 0.0386
791.6809 11.6700 789.7875 12.1633 787.9284 12.6589 786.1037 13.1562
765.8900 16.5866 764.3943 17.0631 762.9313 17.5366 761.5008 18.0069
740.9394 13.4184 739.8963 13.7199 738.8798 14.0174 737.8895 14.3107
716.8015 17.9714 716.2591 18.1573 715.7326 18.3388 715.2213 18.5161
693.45 0 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000
∑x² 75.6170 ∑x² 76.2680 ∑x² 77.0103 ∑x² 77.8443

Hasil
STB
STB
STB
STB
 STB
%
Bulan
Tahun
BOPD 3648 BOPM

Grafi k Hasil
EUR = 12441,9202638
MSTB

ERR = 986,7202638 MSTB

Data Produks i
Q Foreca st
Decl i ne
Laju alir prediksi NP Actual
NP Foreca st

imit rate batas waktu produksi (tlimit)

bopd = akhir bulan November2020
19-Apr-01 10-Oct-06 1-Apr-12 22-Sep-17 15-Mar-23

Waktu
b= 0.4 b = 0.5 b = 0.6 b = 0.7 b =
Di = 0.0366 Di = 0.0376 Di = 0.0386 Di = 0.0396 Di =
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast =
1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65
1098.9413 1.6122 1097.9821 1.5409 1096.9963 1.4692 1095.9831 1.3973 1094.9421
1060.2396 1.4375 1058.5584 1.3184 1056.8407 1.2019 1055.0862 1.0883 1053.2950
1023.4196 5.7887 1021.2204 5.4744 1018.9863 5.1635 1016.7176 4.8563 1014.4150
988.3651 0.1754 985.8237 0.1145 983.2556 0.0660 980.6620 0.0304 978.0441
954.9689 0.0433 952.2359 0.0882 949.4882 0.1494 946.7274 0.2274 943.9551
923.1313 2.2606 920.3359 1.9984 917.5387 1.7515 914.7418 1.5203 911.9466
892.7602 0.0662 890.0124 0.1224 887.2753 0.1956 884.5508 0.2858 881.8403
863.7698 0.4371 861.1632 0.5639 858.5780 0.7061 856.0155 0.8633 853.4769
836.0804 1.5175 833.6943 1.7326 831.3374 1.9597 829.0105 2.1983 826.7143
809.6179 0.0149 807.5191 0.0023 805.4538 0.0006 803.4225 0.0093 801.4254
784.3134 13.6546 782.5575 14.1536 780.8360 14.6526 779.1487 15.1513 777.4956
760.1023 18.4734 758.7356 18.9361 757.4003 19.3945 756.0959 19.8484 754.8219
736.9248 14.5997 735.9852 14.8844 735.0701 15.1647 734.1790 15.4405 733.3113
714.7249 18.6892 714.2429 18.8581 713.7749 19.0229 713.3206 19.1838 712.8795
693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0 693.45
∑x² 78.7702 ∑x² 79.7882 ∑x² 80.8983 ∑x² 82.1006 ∑x²
Data Produks i
Q Foreca st
Decl i ne
NP Actual
NP Foreca st
 0.8 b = 0.9 b = 1
0.0407 Di = 0.0418 Di = 0.0429
x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0
1.3252 1093.8724 1.2530 1092.7737 1.1810
0.9780 1051.4667 0.8712 1049.6013 0.7685
4.5536 1012.0790 4.2558 1009.7105 3.9634
0.0083 975.4033 0.0000 972.7408 0.0062
0.3224 941.1730 0.4347 938.3827 0.5646
1.3049 909.1551 1.1057 906.3690 0.9227
0.3927 879.1453 0.5163 876.4675 0.6562
1.0351 850.9633 1.2212 848.4759 1.4211
2.4479 824.4496 2.7080 822.2170 2.9780
0.0279 799.4627 0.0559 797.5346 0.0931
15.6490 775.8764 16.1455 774.2909 16.6402
20.2975 753.5780 20.7417 752.3636 21.1807
15.7117 732.4665 15.9784 731.6441 16.2405
19.3407 712.4511 19.4938 712.0352 19.6431
0.0000 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000
83.3949 ∑x² 84.7812 ∑x² 86.2592