1

Load Research in the

Smart Grid Era
Analytics for Harvesting Customer
Insights
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Agenda
• A little history
• Load research 101
• What about the future?
• Conclusions
 3

What is Load Research?

By Definition:
An activity embracing the measurement and study of the characteristics of
electric loads to provide a thorough & reliable knowledge of trends, and general
behaviour of the load characteristics of the customers serviced by the electrical
industry.
Simply put:
Load Research allows utilities to study the ways their customers use electricity,
either in total or by individual end uses.
Mission:
Builds the foundation allowing the corporation to leverage knowledge of electric
customer energy use patterns to enhance or protect shareholder value
 History of Load Research
• Load research began in the 1930s…after WWII, there was
significant electric load growth in the U.S….1970s oil embargo
slowed the expansion
• Utilities had over-forecasted need for capacity, and started to use load research for a
better way to forecast components of their system load
• In 1978, Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) required the utility industry to
develop load research programs as a basis for cost-of-service filings
• In the 1980s, load research progressed from its primary role in class cost allocation and
rate design to other purposes such as Cost of
end use insights supporting EE/DR Customer
Service
Pricing
Segment

• Today, Load Research continues to evolve,

End-Use
supporting multiple business functions while Research
Forecasting

helping utilities embrace the challenges of Load

Research

“Big” data… System

Planning
Distribution
Planning

EE
Demand
Program
Response
EE Design
Evaluation

Slide 4
Load Research Supports Many Business Functions
Electric Choice Distribution Planning
Load Profiling Substation Load Analysis
Generation Planning
Forecasting Transformer Sizing
Net System Output
analysis Settlement Circuit Load Studies
Model Development Evaluation Load Management
Capacity Planning Loss Studies
Load Duration Curves LR
Customer Side Services & Analysis
Rates/Pricing1 Demand Response Performance
8760 Class Demand Studies Contribution/Impacts On Peak
Billing Determinants Demographic Studies
Allocation Schedules End-Use Load Studies
Sample Design & Management Market Segmentation & Targeting
Class & System Peak Analysis Major Account Analysis
Major Account Demand Analysis Individual Customer Analysis
1Most Public Services Commissions require that rate case Cost-of-Service studies are based on Load Research demand
allocations - $165B of investment allocated using Load Research

5
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Load Research Overview

Understanding Your Customers
The Load Research Life Cycle Residential Load
1000000
kW
December 2008

900000

800000

700000 2009
kW 600000

500000
Peak Week
1000000 400000

300000

Need for 900000 200000

Information Prelim. Population 800000

Sun 14 Mon 15 Tue 16 Wed 17 Thu 18
Local Time
Fri 19 Sat 20 Sun 21

Plan Data
Sample 700000

Design 600000

500000
Model
400000

Expand Sample 300000

Results Data 200000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Local Time

beta 0.8 80,000 Breaking Down the System Load

Sample Design er
gamma
0.6
0.8
70,000
60,000
50,000
kW
2009

40,000 1800000
n 0 97
& Analysis N 116
n 53
30,000
20,000
10,000
1600000
System
Pumping
0

The MBSS Ratio Model -10,000

-20,000
1400000

-30,000
The MBSS ratio model is a heteroscedastic, zero-intercept 0 20,000 40,000 60,000
1200000

regression model relating y to a single variable x.

1000000

Primary Equation yi   xi   i Very Large Power

i sd  i    0 xi
Error

800000
Secondary Equation Ratio Description of association Example
>1 Extremely weak but possible DSM end use metering with very poor
tracking data 600000 Large Power
1 Very weak, conservative Market research with poor supporting data
Definition: error ratio Here i   xi assumption
N
1 N 0.8 Rather weak Residential load study 400000 Small Power
 
N
i
N
i  i
0.6
0.5
Weak
Typical
General service load study
DSM logger study with good tracking data Residential Juris 2
er  i 1
 i 1
 0  er i 1
0.4 Strong Large C&I load study 200000
N
1 N Residential Juris 1
 
N

i 1
i
N i 1
i x
i 1

i
0.2
0.1
Very strong
Extremely strong
End use metering vs. DOE-2 simulations
1st year persistence study for motors Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
0 Least possible value, perfect Not expected Local Time
association
The three parameters of the model are beta, the error ratio,
and gamma, denoted  , er , 

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Load Research Processing

Initialize System
Historically:
Plan
Sample An 18-24 Month Analysis Cycle
(Sampling is King!)
Sample
Import Import
Design/
Preliminary
Import
Draw
Population
Data System Data Sample Data Population
Sample
Billing Data
Plan

Post- Analysis Load Research Sample

Stratify
Life Cycle Design

Hourly
Analysis
Surveys Meter
& Audits Data Installations
Special
Collection
Analysis

The Promise of Today:

Report Results
An Analysis Cycle in Weeks/Days/Hours
(Sample may be unlimited!)
 8

Gaining Customer Insights

Data Visualization (Visualize-IT)
A picture is worth a thousand words…one of the main goals of data visualization
is to make it possible to absorb large amounts of data quickly

Commercial Big Box Retail School Thermal Storage Athletic Field Grocery Cat Fish Pond
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Gaining Customer Insights – Data Fusion

• Today’s challenge is no longer the availability of primary data but the integration of
that primary data with secondary sources…
• Utilities need effective strategies for extracting value and insights from interval load
information…data fusion can help
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Smart Energy Program Analysis

Buy/Use
HVAC Smart Energy Offers
Direct load
Buy/Use
control
Water Heating
Time-based pricing
Thermostat
Buy/Use Direct load control
Lighting
Mobile/
Energy info displays
Internet Smart thermostats
Buy/Use Prepaid electricity
Appliance Control
Action Applications
Consumer Switches/
Buy Time- Plugs
Smart appliances
Based Rate
¢ Choice EV plans
Plan HAN Self generation
Buy Prepay
Gateway/ Others
Tablet
Rate Plan

Awareness
Advice & Behavioral
EID
Peer
comparison
Portal Alerts

Source: KEMA, adapted from Reliant Energy

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Gaining Customer Insights

Getting Under the Load Profile
• Getting underneath the total facility load
curve continues to be an industry goal
• Work continues on innovative, cost-
effective measurement techniques for
collecting load data as an alternative to
more expensive sub-metering
– Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM)
– Statistical Methods like Conditional Demand
Analysis (CDA)
– Subtraction Algorithms
– Low-Cost Sensors
• EPRI supported NILM research along
with recent innovations and new market
entrants have revitalized this topical area
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Getting Under the Curve

Conditional Demand Analysis (CDA)
• CDA produces an estimate of the
allocation of total consumption for a
customer among the end uses within
the customer site
– An old statistical idea that’s new again
– Low cost, analytical heavy option
– Performs well with large signature
appliances with differentiation
– Typically fit to annual or monthly
whole premise consumption, but, can
also be fit on daily or hourly load data
– Linear and/or Non-linear models can
be used
– Multi-collinearity can be an issue
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Getting Under the Curve – Subtraction

Algorithms
• Some load shapes are so discernible Electric Vehicles
that simple subtraction algorithms
work quite effectively for first order
approximations
• Used extensively in pricing and
demand response program Average Hourly Weekday Comparison: Phase 2 vs Phase 3
Appliance: Total Appliance Bundle Analysis Type: Demand

evaluations Demand
0.800

• Set up test/control (comparison) 0.700

0.600

environment for study 0.500

0.400

0.300

0.200

0.100

0.000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour

Time of Use Phase 2 Phase 3

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Getting Under the Curve – Low Cost Sensors

• Relatively modest
investment since ELCAP
• Increasing utility
interest
in end-use information
& performance
• Recent regional
Initiatives
(NEEP, NWPPC)
• Cost a concern…
• Some limited
deployments
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Where to Start…Assessing the Four Stages

of Analytic Readiness
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Data Analytics Check-Up

• A comprehensive
roadmap for predictive
analytics starts with
segmenting each
opportunity into
functional components
(14 listed) that a utility
can evaluate on their
own merit, taking into
account the impacts to
current business
processes and IT
systems
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Road Map Strategy

• Group the opportunities into
feasible sets based on ROI,
ease of implementation,
impact on business
processes, and investments
in IT systems
•
• Assemble these sets and
associated investments into a
comprehensive roadmap

• Lay out the opportunities

along a short-, mid- and long-
term horizons for funding
and implementation
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Conclusions
• Load research and load research techniques make as much
sense today as they did in the past

• More data doesn’t necessary mean more information

• Planning for the future paramount to enterprise analytics

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Thank You!

DNV GL
Claude.godin@dnvgl.com
1 919-539 -231
Curt.puckett@dnvgl.com
1 517-529-6277

www.dnvgl.com

SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER