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The causes and consequences of a decline in

population in Bulgaria

Last year the Chinese government

announced it would allow parents to have
up to three children. This is five years after
the Chinese authorities moved away from
their one-child policy that dated back to
the 1980s. China, like many countries
across the world, is experiencing a decline
in population and forecasters believe the
country could see a 700 million decline in
population by the end of the century –
halving its size.

Instinctively a decline in a country’s population is often seen as a good thing. Politicians often argue for a tough
immigration position to gain support from voters based on the principle that their country is ‘full’ and has too many
people.

What happens when a country’s population falls?

Bulgaria has lost a quarter of its population in the last 30 years and is the country with the fastest declining
population globally. The fall in Bulgaria’s population has two causes. Firstly, is a fall in the country’s fertility rate
from 2.02 births per woman in 1986 to 1.58 in 2020 which means Bulgaria’s death rate exceeds its birth rate.
Secondly, Bulgaria’s net migration rate in 2022 is -0.699 per 1000 population which means the country is losing a
significant number of people to other countries each year.

What are the consequences for Bulgaria of a declining population?

Vidin is a region alongside the Danube River in the country’s northwest. It has lost 25 per cent of its population in
the last 10 years. Vidin now has many deserted villages, boarded-up shops, closed factories and empty schools.
As one local politician said, ‘Vidin is dying, young people go and never come back.’ As young people leave and
older people remain the productivity of the region declines because older people tend not to be as productive
because they are retired or in the latter part of their working lives.

Vidin’s population problem is a helpful model of the consequences of a falling population for Bulgaria as a whole
and for the issues, many countries will face when they experience a decline in population.

One key issue is the ageing population. Improvements in healthcare mean people live longer and become net
recipients of a country’s resources. Older people stop work and need to be cared for and this means their carers
cannot work or cannot work as effectively. Older people also need more support from the healthcare system.

A second issue is the movement of people to cities. As people leave the small towns and villages of Vidin, they
tend to move to cities whether this is Bulgaria’s capital city, Sofia, or to larger cities in Europe. Cities are attractive
to young people because of the employment opportunities, easier travel and social and cultural opportunities.

Bulgaria provides good examples of the micro, macro and development issues that arise from a decline in
population and the challenges it will pose for governments and policymakers.

Questions

1.a. Explain how an ageing population might affect the market for medicine and the labour market in Bulgaria. [10]

b. Evaluate the view that a declining population will have a negative effect on economic development in Bulgaria.
[15]

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