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A robust two-stage transit-based

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disaster response
Moddassir Nayeem

Measurement

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 Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Measurement
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/measurement

A robust two-stage transit-based evacuation model for large-scale

disaster response
Xuehong Gao a,⇑, Moddassir Khan Nayeem a, Ibrahim M. Hezam a,b
a
Department of Industrial Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
b
Department of Mathematics, Ibb University, Ibb, Yemen

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: After a natural or man-made large-scale disaster occurs, it is a great danger to the residents who are living
Received 16 December 2018 in the affected area. Evacuees in the (potential) impacted area need to be assembled at pick-up points and
Accepted 22 May 2019 evacuated within the specified time by using vehicles that transport them to the safe shelters, potentially
Available online 6 June 2019
multiple times. It is necessary to consider this transit-based evacuation problem right after the occur-
rence of a large-scale disaster with different time windows caused by different radius to the disaster cen-
Keywords: ter point. As the pick-up points of assembling evacuees can greatly influence the evacuation process, it is
HGA
crucial to identify the critical pick-up point locations to assemble evacuees. We decompose the problem
IRRSH
Transit-based evacuation
into two stages: determination of pick-up point locations, vehicle routing and scheduling. In the first
Vehicle routing stage, the goal is to determine a set of pick-up points to assemble evacuees while minimizing the total
Vehicle scheduling walking time of evacuees from their locations to pick-up points. In the second stage, the aim is to allocate
vehicles to safe shelters to evacuate evacuees from pick-up points to safer shelters to minimize the total
transit-based evacuation time. The first-stage problem is formulated as an integer nonlinear program-
ming model and the second-stage problem is modeled as a mixed-integer programming model. To better
recognize the locations of pick-up points, a hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) is developed. An interval/
roundtrip-based routing and scheduling heuristic (IRRSH) algorithm is proposed to route and schedule
the vehicles under time-window constraint. Finally, computational results are provided to demonstrate
the validity and robustness of the proposed model.
Ó 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction it is crucial to identify the critical locations to assemble evacuees.

Evacuation endangered regions during a natural or man-made
disaster has always been a major subject in emergency manage-
ment. However, larger-scale disasters (e.g., toxic cloud, typhoon,
and nuclear leakage) are great obstacles to sustainable develop-
ment. These uncontrolled disasters significantly lead to serious
impacts on human lives [1–3]. In order to reduce the consequences
of these disasters, the field of emergency response planning has
evolved substantially over the years [4]. Long before the disaster
occurs, safe shelters should be pre-determined as a means of
protecting the population from potential harm. Besides, decision-
makers must determine what modes of transportation (e.g., walk-
ing, private vehicle, and public transportation) to be used during an
evacuation process, which location to assemble evacuees, and
which evacuation strategy should be used [5]. As the locations of
assembling evacuees can greatly influence the evacuation process,
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: gao2016@pnu.edu (X. Gao).
Many research efforts [6–8] have been investigated to determine
the locations of pick-up points in emergency evacuation manage-
ment problems.
Right after the occurrence of a large-scale disaster, there are two
major activities to evacuate vulnerable evacuees. The first one is to
determine the pick-up point locations. Then, an effective evacua-
tion route planning needs to be provided to transmit evacuees from
pick-up points to safe shelters in time. However, it is very difficult
to recognize the pick-up locations to assemble evacuees because of
the unpredictable evacuee distribution in the affected area. Another
great challenge is how to route and schedule the vehicles to evacu-
ate vulnerable evacuees as quickly as possible using the limited
number of vehicles. In the emergency evacuation management,
an evacuation route planning [5] is an important issue of
emergency management and the most viable response action to
minimize the loss of lives and protect affected evacuees. In the
larger-scale disaster response, a robust evacuation route planning
system should be established to evacuate evacuees from multiple
threatened areas to different safe shelters. And the evacuation route

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2019.05.067
0263-2241/Ó 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
714 X. Gao et al. / Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723
planning system involves many complex layers. Therefore, great
efforts should be made to find an approach to optimize the progress
of evacuation when a large-scale disaster releases.
In the previous studies, few of them concern time windows in
the transit-based evacuation planning. Walking time of evacuees
to the pick-up points needs to be considered when we determine
the locations of pick-up points. In addition, there is usually a short-
age of resources when a disaster occurs and this prevents them
from being managed effectively [9,10], and little work has consid-
ered the number of vehicles in the process of routing and schedul-
ing planning in evacuating evacuees from pick-up points to safe
shelters. Therefore, to fill this research gap, we provide a robust
two-stage framework to administer an efficient transit-based evac-
uation routing and scheduling planning (TERSP) model during the
disaster. Given a transportation network, a number of evacuees
with initial locations, and a set of safe shelters (destination points),
the first-stage problem is to determine a set of pick-up points (ori-
gin points) to assemble evacuees considering the total walking
time of evacuees, and the goal of the second-stage problem is to
find a transit-based evacuation plan by routing and scheduling
vehicles from pick-up points to safe shelters under time windows.
The objective of the first stage is to minimize the total walking
time of evacuees. In the second stage, the objectives are to mini-
mize the total transit-based transportation time and minimize
the total number of vehicles simultaneously to satisfy the time-
window constraint in each of the pick-up points. In our study,
the proposed method enables to solve the transit-based evacuation
problem under different population sizes and different evacuee
distributions in the affected area.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we
review the main studies in evacuation planning and transit-based
evacuation planning, highlighting the main differences from previ-
ous models. A problem description is presented in Section 3. We
present the robust two-stage TERSP model in Section 4 and
develop a hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) and an interval/
roundtrip-based routing and scheduling heuristic (IRRSH) method-
ology to solve the proposed two-stage TERSP model in Section 5.
Then, a numerical analysis and computational results are pre-
sented and discussed in Section 6. Finally, Section 7 concludes this
study with contributions and further directions.
2. Literature review
Previously, a number of studies were undertaken to simulate
evacuation planning after natural and man-made disasters. Here,
we review some studies of transit-based evacuation framework
using public transportation. Because disaster response is important
in the preparation for large-scale disasters, having two major activ-
ities including emergency evacuation and logistics support [11],
many research efforts have been dedicated to evacuation manage-
ment problems. In an emergency evacuation process, most people
leave dangerous areas to safe areas on their own by private cars.
However, there are many people that use public transportation,
usually vehicles (buses), to leave the dangerous area. For large-
scale evacuations, various mathematical programming methods
have been proposed to analyze transit-based evacuation problems.
Research works related to evacuation management were scant and
largely relied on the qualitative methods before 1979 [12]. Since
then, an increasing number of research efforts have been made,
with a variety of analytical and simulation-based approaches to
analyze evacuation management problems.
The analytical approaches have been widely used to generate
optimal evacuation plans for disaster responses. For instance,
Yamada [13] studied a city emergency evacuation planning
problem using two network flow models, where the shortest path
on an undirected graph was sought and each evacuee was assigned
to a corresponding shelter in the first model; then, the second
model was trying to transform the previous problem into a mini-
mum cost flow problem by adding capacities for shelters. Barrett
et al. [14] developed a dynamic hurricane evacuation modeling
framework, which could be used for long-term and short-term
planning purposes. Abdelgawad et al. [15] proposed a multi-
objective optimization framework for combining vehicular traffic
and public transportation for emergency evacuation, to minimize
the travel time, waiting time, and vehicle fleet. Sayyady and Eksio-
glu [16] proposed a mixed-integer linear programming model to
formulate the evacuating transit-dependent citizens during no-
notice disasters and find optimal evacuation routes considering
the minimization of the total evacuation time and the number of
casualties, simultaneously. Guo et al. [17] developed an interval-
based evacuation model for planning the movement of evacuees
from the affected zone to safe areas when a nuclear power plant
accident occurred. Lv et al. [18] developed an interval-parameter
joint-probabilistic integer programming method for an emergency
evacuation problem under uncertainties, which scheduled the
optimal routes to evacuate maximum population from dangerous
areas to safe areas within a finite time. Goerigk et al. [6] modeled
the evacuation process from a number of collection points to a
number of capacitated shelters with the help of buses. Zheng
[19] formulated an optimal bus operating strategy minimizing
the exposed casualty time rather than operational cost, and inves-
tigated a Lagrangian-relaxation-based algorithm for the proposed
model. Goerigk and Grün [20] presented a mixed-integer linear
programming model for the robust bus evacuation problem and
proposed a Tabu search framework to find heuristic solutions of
acceptable quality within a short computation time.
In the last decade, many studies have shown that a good design
of the transportation system makes the evacuation process effec-
tive. Pereira and Bish [7] introduced a variant of the vehicle routing
problem for bus-based regional evacuation planning. In the
regional evacuation planning, evacuees arrived at pre-determined
pick-up locations at constant and location-specific rates; and
capacity-constrained buses were used to transport all evacuees
to the shelter. Goerigk et al. [21] developed a scenario-generation
algorithm to solve a two-stage bi-criteria robust model, which con-
sidered both the evacuation time and the vulnerability of the
schedule to change evacuation circumstances. Swamy et al. [8]
proposed a multi-stage approach to evacuate people from impact
zones to safer regions. Qazi et al. [22] proposed a short-notice
bus-based evacuation model under dynamic demand conditions
to highlight the importance and effects of two important factors,
variation in demand and evacuation route flexibility. Giovanna
et al. [23] presented the main quantitative results of simulating
and designing transport system under evacuation conditions. They
also implemented an intelligent transportation system to monitor
real evacuation tests in a town where an emergency event had
been simulated and experimented. Gai et al. [24] proposed two
heuristic algorithms for solving the multi-objective evacuation
routing model for toxic cloud releases, which took the travel speed
on each arc into account because it would be affected by disaster
extension. Tang et al. [25] divided the urban evacuation process
into two parts: initial location assignment optimization and
dynamic reassignment optimization; they used Markov decision
process framework to model the assignment optimization problem
and made a comparison among three methods that could be
applied in an initial location assignment optimization model.
Although many research efforts have been investigated to
transit-based evacuation management problems, few of them con-
cern time windows in the transit-based evacuation planning.
Besides, many transit-based evacuation studies [6–8] consider
pre-determined pick-up points, which may cost more walking time
 X. Gao et al. / Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723
of evacuees due to the variation of initial evacuee distribution. In
addition, there is usually a shortage of resources when a disaster
occurs and this prevents them from being managed effectively
[9,10] and little work has considered the number of vehicles in
the process of routing and scheduling planning in evacuating evac-
uees from pick-up points to safe shelters. Therefore, to overcome
these drawbacks, this study develops a robust two-stage TERSP
model to evacuate evacuees effectively.
3. Problem description
In our study, the proposed two-stage TERSP model has three
hierarchical objective functions which are the minimization of total
walking time of evacuees in the first stage, minimization of total
transit-based transportation time, and minimization the number
of vehicles to satisfy the time-window constraint for each of pick-
up points in the second stage. In the first stage, the goal is to deter-
mine a set of pick-up points to assemble evacuees using the
clustering-based method, which has been used in many studies
[26,27]. After clustering evacuees into pick-up points, an uncertain
number of evacuees for each of pick-up points is transformed into a
certain number, which enables vehicles to pick up evacuees more
convenient and effective. The outcomes from the first stage will
715
up point location problem, we model the selection problem as a
centroid-based P-median problem, which is to determine a set of
pick-up point locations that cover all the evacuees (100% coverage)
in the evacuation region. We search these pick-up point locations
to minimize the total walking time of evacuees, which is decided
by Manhattan distance from evacuee location to pick-up point
and walking velocity of the evacuee. The model can be formulated
as an integer programming model. The parameters and decision
variables used in the first-stage model are as follows:
E Set of all evacuees in the disaster area, indexed by e 2 E
P The number of pick-up points
Xe The x-coordinate of evacuee e
Ye The y-coordinate of evacuee e
V The walking velocity of evacuee
p Pick-up point
xp The x-coordinate of pick-up point p
yp The y-coordinate of pick-up point p
Np The number of evacuees in pick-up point p
The objective function in the first stage is to minimize the total
walking time of evacuees.
be applied in the second stage. In the second stage, the goal is to  PE   PE !
P X E
allocate the minimum number of vehicles to each of safe shelters wep e¼1 wep
X e  e¼1 wep
Y e 
X    
Min W1 ¼
X e  þ Y e
 
PE PE
by routing and scheduling them. To better highlight the character- V

p¼1 e¼1 e¼1 wep e¼1 wep
   
istics of time windows, the time-window constraint for each pick- ð1Þ
up point is considered in the second stage. In this process, we intro-
duce two parameters that are interval time and roundtrip numbers subject to:
to formulate the mixed-integer programming model. P
X
Before we give the mathematical formulation for the two-stage wep ¼ 1 8e 2 E: ð2Þ
TERSP model, we state some assumptions. p¼1

E
1) Evacuees with initial locations, the number of pick-up
X
wep > 0 8p 2 P: ð3Þ
points, vehicle-depot location, and safe-shelter locations e¼1
are given.
1 if evacuee e is assigned to pick up point p

2) Evacuees gather at the pick-up points firstly and wait for wep ¼ 8e 2 E; p 2 P:
vehicles that pick up and send them to safe shelters. 0 otherwise
3) The evacuation completion time (time window) at each ð4Þ
pick-up point will be given after we obtain the locations of where objective function (1) minimizes the total walking time of
pick-up points. The evacuation completion time is far great- evacuees. Constraint (2) guarantees that one evacuee can only be
er than the maximum walking time of evacuees. assigned to one pick-up point. Constraint (3) guarantees that at
least one evacuee should be assigned to one of the pick-up points.
Based on the previous assumptions, a two-stage TERSP model Constraint (4) defines the binary decision variable. Then, the loca-
can be applied right after the strike of the disaster. At the first tions of pick-up points and the number of evacuees in each of
stage, the pick-up point locations are determined to assemble pick-up points can be calculated.
evacuees. In the second stage, the allocation of the minimum num- PE
ber of vehicles starting off from the vehicle depot to each of pick- e¼1 wep
Xe
xp ¼ PE 8p 2 P: ð5Þ
up points to evacuate the assembled evacuees from the pick-up e¼1 wep
points to the safe shelters by routing and scheduling these vehicles.
PE
e¼1 wep
Ye
yp ¼ PE 8p 2 P: ð6Þ
4. Mathematical formulation e¼1 wep

4.1. Determination of pick-up point locations E

Np ¼
X
wep 8p 2 P: ð7Þ
e¼1
The determination of pick-up point locations has to be
investigated before routing and scheduling the vehicles. These where formulations (5) and (6) calculate the location of the centroid
pick-up point locations would play an important role in an effort for each group, which is regarded as the location of the pick-up
of evacuees walking to the pick-up points and might affect evacuee point. And formulation (7) calculates the total number of evacuees
decisions to go to which pick-up point. Hence, the main goal is in each of the pick-up points.
searching for a set of locations to serve as pick-up points. The
selected locations must be accessible to as many evacuees as 4.2. Transit-based routing and scheduling
possible. At the same time, we do not have to select too many
pick-up points, as that would make an influence on the quality of In the second stage, the main problem is to determine the
the transit-based evacuation process. To resolve this multi-pick- vehicle-fleet route, the number of vehicles, and when those
716 X. Gao et al. / Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723

vehicles set off from safe shelters to pick-up points to transport We aim to determine the route paths so that each vehicle chooses
those evacuees. Right after the evacuation warning is issued, the the least time-consuming path from pick-up point p to safe shelter
pre-determined safe shelters will open and provide sufficient sup- s and from the vehicle depot to pick-up point p. Then, we assign the
ply for those evacuees. The time window of each pick-up point will evacuees to safe shelters to minimize the total transit-based trans-
be given by emergency official governor according to the different portation time. The model can be formulated as an integer program-
radius to the disaster point as long as we determine the pick-up ming model.
point locations. Firstly, we model the transportation network as X dij ps
an undirected graph, to solve the shortest path problem on this Min t ps ¼ 2

a þ LU ð8Þ
VB ij
graph, we can obtain all the shortest paths from pick-up points ði;jÞ2T

to safe shelters and vehicle depot. Secondly, we assign those evac-

subject to:
uees to safe shelters. Finally, according to the assignment of evac-
< 1;
8
uees, the minimum number of vehicles should be allocated to each > if i ¼ p;
safe shelter to evacuate evacuees before the completion time (time aps aps
X X
ij ij ¼ 1; if i ¼ s; 8i; j 2 T; p 2 P; s 2 S:
window) of each pick-up point. The notations used in the second- ði;jÞ2dþ ðiÞ ði;jÞ2d ðiÞ
>
:
0; otherwise:
stage model are as follows:
ð9Þ
Parameters
aps
X
T Set of nodes (vehicle depot, pick-up points, safe ij  1 8i; j 2 T; p 2 P; s 2 S: ð10Þ
ði;jÞ2dþ ðiÞ
shelters, and intersections) in the network, indexed by
i; j 2 T, i–j
1 If vehicle chooses arc ði;jÞ from p to s;

dþ Set of outgoing arcs in the network aps
ij ¼ 8i;j 2 T;p 2 P;s 2 S:
0 otherwise;
d Set of incoming arcs in the network
ð11Þ
P Set of pick-up points in the network, indexed by
p; q 2 S, p–q where objective function (8) minimizes the transportation time of
S Set of safe shelters in the network, indexed by s 2 S vehicle for each pair of the path between pick-up points and safe
ði; jÞ Denote a specific arc in T set shelters. Constraint (9) guarantees the balance of inflow and out-
dþ ðiÞ Denote a specific outgoing arc from node i in dþ set flow for each node in the network. Constraint (10) restricts the
d ðiÞ Denote a specific incoming arc from node i in d set shortest path that visits each node exactly once from pick-up point
M A large positive number to safe shelter. Constraint (11) is a binary variable that determines
dij Length of arc (i; j) the itinerary for each pair of paths. Similarly, T p can be obtained by
TEp Start time of evacuation in pick-up point p applying the previous constraints. After we solve the previous prob-
TF p Completion time of evacuation in pick-up point p lem, we can calculate the number of evacuees that need to be trans-
Np Number of evacuees in pick-up point p ported between pick-up points and safe shelters. Then, the main
Cs Capacity of safe shelter s problem is to determine the minimum number of vehicles that set
CB Capacity of vehicle off from safe shelters to transport those evacuees at pick-up points.
VB Speed of vehicle We introduce two parameters, interval times (jpqs and cpqs ) and
LU Loading/unloading time of vehicle roundtrip numbers (hps ; npqs ; and fpqs ), to formulate the mixed-
Decision variables integer programming model to allocate the minimum number of
Tp Travel time of vehicle from vehicle depot to pick-up vehicles to each of safe shelters.
point p
XX
Min W2 ¼ nps
t ps ð12Þ
tps Travel time of one roundtrip from pick-up point p to p2P s2S
safe shelter s
nps Number of evacuees should be transferred from pick-
XX
Min W3 ¼ mps ð13Þ
up point p to safe shelter s p2P s2S
bps Total roundtrips to evacuate nps evacuees from pick-up
point p to safe shelter s subject to:
hps Number of roundtrip times in TF ps nps  Np
X
8p 2 P: ð14Þ
mps Initial number of vehicles used to transfer evacuees s2S
from pick-up point p to safe shelter s
nps  C s
X
rps Number of roundtrips (the remainder of bps to hps ) from 8s 2 S: ð15Þ
pick-up point p to safe shelter s of one vehicle p2P

jpqs Interval time between the completion time of pick-up

Cs ¼ Np
X X
point p and the finish-time by using ðmps 1Þ vehicles ð16Þ
at the last pick-up point q to safe shelter nodes s2S p2P

cpqs Interval time between the completion time of pick-up

1; If nps > 0;

point p and the finish-time by using one vehicle in the bps ¼ 8p 2 P; s 2 S: ð17Þ
last pick-up point q to safe shelter nodes 0; Otherwise;
npqs Number of roundtrips in jpqs for ðmps 1Þ vehicles
from pick-up point p to safe shelter nodes ðhps 1Þ
tps þ T p  TF ps 8p 2 P; s 2 S: ð18Þ
fpqs Number of roundtrips in ðjpqs þ tqs Þ for one vehicle
from pick-up point p to safe shelter node s nps
bps  8p 2 P; s 2 S: ð19Þ
CB
 X. Gao et al. / Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723 717

b1s and cpqs , respectively. Constraint (29) defines the integer decision
m1s  8s 2 S: ð20Þ
h1s variables.

r 1s  MODðb1s ; h1s Þ 8s 2 S: ð21Þ 5. Methodology

Pp 1 
ups Þ þ fpss
bss Following the hierarchical objective functions, the two-stage

bps s¼1 npss
ðmss
mps  82  p 2 P; s 2 S: problem can be reformulated as a structured TERSP model, which
hps
is shown as follows:
ð22Þ
min W3
> ð17Þ ð29Þ
8
p 1
( )
ups Þ þ fpss
bss ;hps
X
rps ¼ MOD bps 82  p 2 P;s 2 S:
 
npss
ðmss
>
min W2
>
>
>
>
s¼1
ð14Þ ð16Þ
>
> 8
>
>
ð23Þ ð30Þ
< >
min
>
s:t: tps ; T p
>
>
>
<
s:t: < 9Þ ð11Þ
ð
>
> 8
1; If rps > 0;
 >
>
ups ¼
>
8p 2 P; s 2 S: ð24Þ s:t: min W1
>
> >
>
0; Otherwise;
>
> >
>
> >
s:t: ð2Þ ð7Þ
: : :

p 1
tps þ t qs
jpqs  TF ps þ nsqs
tss
bss
X
Tq
2 s¼q
8p; q 2 P; 2  p  P; q < p; s 2 S:
p 1
t ps þ tqs
cpqs  TF ps þ fsqs
tss
bss
X
Tq
2 s¼q
8p; q 2 P; 2  p  P; q < p; s 2 S:
jpqs
1  npqs  8p; q 2 P; 2  p  P; q < p; s 2 S:
t ps
cpqs
1  fpqs  8p; q 2 P; 2  p  P; q < p; s 2 S:
t ps
nps ;mps ;bps ;hps ;rps ;npqs ; and fpqs are integer nonnegative varibales
2 P;s 2 S:
where objective function (12) minimizes the total transit-based
transportation time of evacuees and objective function (13) mini-
mizes the total number of vehicles in the evacuation process. Con-
straint (14) ensures the total outgoing evacuees should be greater
than the evacuees in pick-up point. Constraint (15) ensures the total
number of assigned evacuees cannot exceed the capacity at the safe
shelter. Constraint (16) guarantees the transportation balance
between pick-up points and safe shelters. Constraint (17) defines
the binary variable. Constraint (18) guarantees the roundtrip times
before the completion time at pick-up point p. Constraint (19)
ensures the total number of roundtrips in each of the pick-up
points. Constraint (20) restricts the initial number of vehicles that
should be allocated to evacuate evacuees from the first pick-up
point to safe shelter s. Constraint (21) restricts the remainder (the
number of roundtrips) of b1s to h1s for the first pick-up point used
to send evacuees to safe shelter s. Constraint (22) restricts the initial
number of vehicles that should be allocated to evacuate evacuees
from pick-up point p to safe shelter s. Constraint (23) restricts the
remainder of roundtrips for the pick-up point p. Constraint (24)
defines the binary variable. Constraint (25) ensures the interval-
time between the complete time of pick-up point p and the
finish-time by using the (mps 1) vehicles in the previous pick-up
points to safe shelter s. Constraint (26) ensures the interval-time
between the complete time of pick-up point p and finish-time by
using the last one vehicle in each of pick-up points to safe shelter
s. Constraints (27) and (28) restrict the roundtrip numbers in jpqs
Note that, since the objectives are hierarchical, they are handled
hqs
t qs
bqs lexicographically. Hence, the first objective function is optimized
without taking other objective functions into account. Next, the
first objective is fixed to its optimal value and the second objective
ð25Þ is minimized according to the remaining constraints. Because the
objective function value obtained from the previous stage is con-
sidered as a constraint in the next stage, this approach guarantees
r qs
t qs
bqs
that the optimization of the previous objective is prioritized over
the next one. Finally, by fixing the previous decision variables,
the proposed methodology tries to minimize the number of vehi-
ð26Þ
cles used in the transit-based evacuation process by routing and
scheduling vehicle fleets.
Here, we focus on designing an effective algorithm to solve the
ð27Þ
proposed problem. We decompose the model into two stages,
which are pick-up point location determination in the first stage,
and vehicle routing and scheduling in the second stage. We
ð28Þ
develop a HGA to solve the first-stage problem and an IRRSH
method to solve the second-stage problem.
8p
5.1. HGA
ð29Þ
In the first stage, we are going to determine pick-up point loca-
tions to minimize the total walking time of evacuees. The determi-
nation of pick-up points is a generalized multi-Weber problem,
which is also known as the un-capacitated multi-facility location
problem (MFLP) stated by Cooper [28]. And the problem can be
interpreted as an enumeration of the Voronoi partitions of the cus-
tomer set, which has been proven to be an NP-hard problem
[29,30]. An un-capacitated MFLP is defined as a special clustering
problem if the set of customers served by a specific facility is con-
sidered as a cluster [31]. Many studies [26,32–36] applied cluster-
ing and clustering-based methods to determine the facility
locations. Besides, because the genetic algorithm (GA) is a global,
parallel, and stochastic search method, the combination of GA
and fuzzy c-means (FCM) methods has obvious advantages. Ding
and Fu [37] presented a combination of GA and the kernel-based
FCM improved the clustering performance. Wikaisuksakul [38]
tested many datasets and showed that his FCM-NSGA (non-
dominated sorting GA) achieved the best partitioning over the
other techniques. Ye and Jin [39] proposed a clustering algorithm
based on quantum GA that demonstrated a better accuracy of clus-
tering than the general FCM clustering algorithm. Hence, To
improve the performance of the clustering algorithm, the combina-
tion of clustering algorithm and GA was used to achieve data clus-
tering [40]. In this sense, we develop a HGA that is the combination
of FCM and GA to determine the pick-up point locations.
The HGA combines the advantages of GA and FCM to overcome
the defect that FCM is sensitive to the noise of isolated data and the
718
initial clustering centers, which avoids the clustering center falling
into local extreme point easily. Then a center-based string encod-
ing, selection, crossover, and mutation strategies are presented in
HGA. In the HGA, GA is used to optimize the clustering centers
and FCM algorithm provides the categorization of data, so as to
improve the result of the clustering algorithm.
The main steps of the HGA algorithm are presented as follows.
Step 1: Set the parameters
Set the number of clusters P; Population number PP; Evacuees
with initial locations; Generation number G; Crossover probability
Pc ; Mutation probability P m ; Fuzziness value m and Termination
tolerance value e.
Step 2: Population and membership initialization.
For each individual, we generate random E  P numbers. The
membership degree uep of evacuee e to center vector p is initialized
with a random value ,ep ; 0  ,ep  1:
,ep
uep ¼ PP
p¼1 ,ep
Step 3: Set the individual chromosome.
In practical application, each individual has a chromosome with
P cluster centers which are stored in a single-dimension array.
Thus, each row-index number of the array can be regarded as a
gene of cluster center from 1 toP.
Step 4: Genetic operation.
Each individual with P serial index numbers is considered as the
cluster center. Genetic operations, including selection, crossover,
and mutation operators are used to improve genetic diversity.
Step 5: Optimal preservation.
After the mutation operation for each generation, fitness func-
tion value f which is based on the FCM clustering algorithm is cal-
culated for each of individuals according to its objective value H.
And individuals with higher fitness function values are more likely
to be selected for survival, and the worst individuals are replaced
by the better ones.
5 and ðTF 3s r 2s
t 2s Þ, respectively. Finally, we can calculate the num-
10
f ¼
1þH
X. Gao et al. / Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723
5.2. IRRSH
In the second stage, the goal is to minimize the total transit-
based evacuation time of evacuees and minimize the total num-
ber of vehicles simultaneously to satisfy time-window constraint
in each of pick-up points by routing and scheduling them. There
are three main components that are considered in this model,
which are: (i) determining route path; (ii) evacuee-flow selection;
and (iii) scheduling vehicle fleets. In the transit-based evacuation
process, the first goal is to determine the path between pick-up
points and safe shelters. Dijkstra algorithm [41] is applied to
determine the route path, which is one of the classical algorithms
to solve the shortest path problem effectively. Then, assigning
evacuees to different safe shelters should be carried out to mini-
mize total transit-based evacuation timeW2 . Finally, to schedule
these vehicle fleets according to the assignment of evacuees, a
heuristic algorithm based on two kinds of parameters that
are interval times (i.e., jpqs and cpqs ) and roundtrip numbers
ð31Þ
(i.e., hps ; npqs ; and fpqs ) is proposed. The heuristic algorithm is
depicted in Fig. 1.
In the IRRSH algorithm, a backward inference method base-
d on two parameters that are interval time and roundtrip number
is proposed. Here, we provided an example (Fig. 2) to illustrate
the IRRSH heuristic algorithm. After generating three pick-up
points serviced by safe shelter s in the ascending sequence of com-
pletion timeTF 1s , TF 2s , and TF 3s , we calculate the number of
assigned vehicles m1s which consist of z1s ðz1s ¼ m1s 1Þ and one
vehicle in the first pick-up point. In the second pick-up point, we
firstly use z1s vehicles in the interval time ðTF 2s h1s
t1s ) and one
vehicle in the interval time ðTF 2s r1s
t 1s ), and the remaining
evacuees are evacuated by using m2s vehicles that consist of z2s
ðz2s ¼ m2s 1Þ and one vehicle in the second pick-up point. In
the third pick-up point, we begin to apply z1s vehicles and one
vehicle after several roundtrips in the interval times
ðTF 2s h1s
t1s ) andðTF 2s r1s
t 1s ) respectively. Then, z2s vehicles
and one vehicle can be used in the interval times ðTF 3s h2s
t 2s Þ
ð32Þ ber of vehiclesm3s , which should be assigned to the third pick-up
point.
 PE   PE !
P X E
wep e¼1 wep
X e   e¼1 wep
Y e 
X 
H¼
X e  þ Y e 6. Numerical experiment

PE PE
V

p¼1 e¼1

e¼1 wep   e¼1 wep 
ð33Þ In this section, an illustrative instance will be given to show
how the proposed model works for the two-stage evacuation pro-
( cess with objective functions (1), (12), and (13). We consider a
1 if uep ¼ max ue1 ;ue2 ;


;uep ;


; uEP 8e 2 f1; 2;


; Eg; p 2 f1; 2;


;P g


2
wep ¼ hypothetical transportation network (12  10 ðkm Þ) consisting
0 otherwise
of 35 junctions and 57 roads, which is an extension of the trans-
ð34Þ
portation network [42,43] and shown in Fig. 3.
Step 6: Termination condition Assume that there is a vehicle depot which is situated at N18 ,
If the termination condition is satisfied then the evolution stops, which is pre-determined before the disaster. The detailed informa-
otherwise goes to step 4. In this study, the termination considera- tion on the evacuation transportation network is shown in Table 1.
tion is the number of evolutionary generations G or the variance of In the impacted area, it has 3000 points and each point stands for a
total individual fitness function value e. In the formulation, PP is group of evacuees, which ranges from 1 to 10. In the first stage, a
the number of population, and pp indicates an individual in the number of pick-up points are determined to assemble evacuees
population. for an initial randomly distributed evacuees. In the following
numerical experiments, parameters of the HGA are shown in
PP
PPP !2 Table 2.
pp¼1 f pp
X
e¼ f pp ð35Þ Since we select the initial set of centroids randomly, we run this
pp¼1
PP algorithm G ¼ 400 generations or the centroid positions are fixed
to obtain the best partitioning of evacuees. Then, the results of
Step 7: Output result pick-up point locations and the number of evacuees in each of
If the termination condition is satisfied, the best individual gen- pick-up points are shown in the Table 3. Besides, as long as the
erated by HGA is obtained. Then, the cluster centers are obtained pick-up point locations are determined, the time windows will
by decoding that individual. be given. And the pick-up point locations will be assigned to the
 X. Gao et al. / Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723 719

Fig. 1. The heuristic algorithm of IRRSH.

Fig. 2. An illustrative example of the IRRSH algorithm.

720 X. Gao et al. / Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723

Fig. 3. Evacuation transportation network of the disaster area.

Table 1
Detailed information on the transportation network.

Link Distance (km) Link Distance (km) Link Distance (km)

1–2 2 12–13 2.5 23–29 2
1–5 1.5 12–19 1.5 24–25 2
1–15 4.75 13–14 1.5 24–30 2
2–3 2 13–20 1.5 25–26 2
2–6 1.5 14–21 1.5 25–31 2
3–4 2 14–37 10 26–27 2.5
3–7 1.5 15–16 1.5 26–32 2
4–8 1.5 15–22 2 27–28 1.5
4–14 5 16–17 2 27–33 2
5–6 2 16–23 2 28–34 2
5–9 1.5 17–18 2 29–30 2
6–7 2 17–24 2 29–35 2.5
6–10 1.5 18–19 2 30–31 2
7–8 2 18–25 2 30–35 1.5
7–11 1.5 19–20 2.5 31–32 2
8–12 1.5 19–26 2 31–36 1.5
9–10 2 20–21 1.5 32–33 2.5
9–16 1.5 20–27 2 33–34 1.5
10–11 2 21–28 2 34–38 10
10–17 1.5 22–23 1.5 35–36 2
11–12 2 22–29 2.5 36–39 10
11–18 1.5 23–24 2

Table 2 For illustrative convenience, the vehicle always chooses the

Parameter values in the HGA. shortest path between these facilities. According to the results
Parameters Value from the first stage, we calculate the route transportation times
Number of pick-up points P 8
between pick-up points and safer shelters using Dijkstra algorithm
Fuzziness exponent: m 2 and assign the evacuees (as shown in Table 4) to minimize the total
Next population number: PP 80 transit-based walking time of evacuees. As mentioned early, the
Mutation probability: P m 0.2 proposed IRRSH model is used to minimize the number of vehicles
Crossover probability: P c 0.1
to evacuate evacuees by routing and scheduling them. The
Variance of fitness values: e 10 5
acquired result for vehicle movements is depicted in Tables 5–7.
The results in Tables 5–7 depict that the proposed heuristic
method obtains the scheduling plan of vehicles. As an example in
nearest road or junction. Finally, these pick-up point locations are Table 7, safe shelter s1 is responsible for evacuating evacuees in
shown in Fig. 4. It is obvious that those pick-up points are well pick-up points p1, p2, and p4, which have different time windows.
scattered in the disaster area. To guarantee that the vehicle starts and ends within the time
 X. Gao et al. / Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723 721

Table 3
Pick-up locations and rout path from vehicle depot to pick-up points.

P xp yp Np Tp Rout Path TEp TF p

1 5.68 18.05 1681 8.15 D-17-16-15-p1 0 360

2 7.00 6.02 1809 7.5 D-25-24-23-p2 0 500
3 11.00 13.83 2048 2.4 D-17-p3 0 400
4 15.00 6.25 1793 3.35 D-25-p4 0 540
5 16.61 19.00 1469 3.8 D-11-7-p5 0 460
6 19.00 11.98 1619 2.5 D-19-p6 0 580
7 24.00 6.62 1699 7.7 D-19-20-27-p7 0 650
8 24.33 17.60 1391 9.05 D-19-12-13-14-p8 0 550

Fig. 4. Pick-up point locations in the disaster area.

Table 4
Assignment of evacuees and rout path from pick-up points to safe shelters.

S P nps Rout path tps Tp TF p hps bps

s1 p1 92 p1-1-5-6-7-8-12-13-14-s1 46.2 8.15 360 8 4

p3 2048 p3-10-11-12-13-14-s1 38.2 2.4 400 10 69
p5 1469 p5-8-12-13-14-s1 33.4 3.8 460 14 49
p8 1391 p8-14-s1 23.1 9.05 500 21 47
s2 p4 191 p4-31-32-33-34-s2 32.2 3.35 540 17 7
p6 1619 p6-26-27-28-34-s2 35.0 2.5 580 17 54
p7 1699 p7-33-34-s2 24.6 7.7 650 26 57
s3 p1 1589 p1-15-22-29-35-36-s3 43.3 8.15 360 8 53
p2 1809 p2-29-35-36-s3 30.0 7.5 500 16 61
p4 1602 p4-31-36-s3 24.2 3.35 540 22 54

Table 5
Routing and scheduling plan of vehicles for safe shelter s1.

P mps tps zps hps mps zps r ps p3 p5 p8

p1 1 46.2 0 8 – – n13s ¼ 0 n15s ¼ 0 n18s ¼ 0

– –
p3 6 38.2 5 11
– –
p5 3 33.4 2 14
– –
p8 1 23.1 0 20
– –
1 4 f13s ¼ 6 f15s ¼ 2 f18s ¼ 1
– – – n35s ¼ 2 n38s ¼ 1
1 8 – f35s ¼ 5 f38s ¼ 2
– – – – n58s ¼ 2
1 4 – – f58s ¼ 16
– – – – –
1 19 – – –
722 X. Gao et al. / Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723

Table 6
Routing and scheduling plan of vehicles for safe shelter s2.

P mps tps zps hps mps zps rps p6 p7

p4 1 32.2 0 17 – – n46s ¼ 0 n47s ¼ 0

– –
p6 3 35.0 2 17
– –
p7 2 24.6 1 27
– –
1 7
– –
1 10
– –
1 7
f46s ¼ 10 f47s ¼ 4
– n67s ¼ 3
– f67s ¼ 13
– –
– –

Table 7
Routing and scheduling plan of vehicles for safe shelter s3.

P mps t ps zps hps mps zps r ps p2 p4

p1 7 43.3 6 9 – – n12s ¼ 4 n14s ¼ 2

– –
p2 2 30.0 1 17
– –
p4 1 24.2 0 23
– –
1 5
– –
1 4
– –
1 21
f12s ¼ 16 f14s ¼ 1
– n24s ¼ 2
– f24s ¼ 18
– –
– –

Table 8
Comparison result of the second stage given different population sizes.

Instance ID Population size Cs s Assignment of pick-up points Assignment of vehicles mps

1 7369 3000 s1 p3; p5; p6; p8 4, 4, 1, 1

s2 p6; p7 1, 1
s3 p1; p2; p3; p4 4, 1, 0, 1
2 19,649 7000 s1 p3; p5; p8 10, 4, 3
s2 p4; p6; p7 2, 5, 2
s3 p1; p2; p3; p4 11, 3, 0, 1
3 25,790 9000 s1 p3; p5; p8 12, 5, 3
s2 p4; p6; p7 3, 6, 4
s3 p1; p2; p3; p4 14, 4, 0, 2
4 27,018 10,000 s1 p1 ; p3; p5; p8 7, 14, 6, 0
s2 p4; p6; p7 1, 7, 3
s3 p1; p2; p4 14, 3, 3

window at each pick-up point, the least number of vehicles
m13 ¼ 7 should be assigned to evacuate evacuees in p1. The
assigned m13 vehicles will be devoted to evacuate evacuees in
pick-up point p2 right after these vehicles finish evacuating evac-
uees in p1. Then, we can calculate the number of evacuees who
are delivered by these m13 vehicles before the completion time of
pick-up point p2 and the remaining evacuees are evacuated by
m23 ¼ 2vehicles from the beginning of the disaster. The m13 and
m23 vehicles will be allocated to dispatching evacuees in p4 after
the evacuation in pick-up point p2 is completed. Similarly, the
number of m43 can be obtained after using m13 and m23 vehicles.
In the whole process of evacuation, vehicles have no waiting time,
which ensures the high utilization of vehicles and efficiency of
evacuation.
To analyze the proposed robust two-stage transit-based evacu-
ation model for different disaster situations, we test four more
instances with different population sizes. The assignment of pick-
up points for each safe shelter and the corresponding number of
vehicles are shown in Table 8. As shown in Table 8, given different
population sizes, we can observe the similar assignment of pick-up
points for each safe shelter. Besides, for each safe shelter in differ-
ent instances, we can obtain the minimum number of vehicles that
are used to evacuate evacuees by scheduling those vehicles.
7. Conclusions
In this study, the goal is to coordinate the evacuee logistics and
vehicle fleets in disaster response. With this goal, we considered a
robust two-stage transit-based evacuation model for the regional
evacuation with the help of vehicle fleets, where the first stage is
to transfer the evacuees into a set of pick-up points, and the second
stage is scheduling and routing these vehicles to evacuate evacuees
from pick-up points to safe shelters. Another consideration is its
robustness, measured as the scheduling and routing the minimum
number of vehicles. To solve this two-stage problem, we present a
HGA that determines a set of optimal pick-up point locations in the
first stage and obtains the number of evacuees at each pick-up
point. In the second stage, an IRRSH method is proposed to mini-
mize the total number of vehicles by generating a scheduling plan
of vehicles. Such approaches can be easily applied to other large-
scale evacuation situations. To illustrate the process of evacuation,
a computational experiment on a hypothetical transportation net-
work is presented.
In future work, we will explore the problem of interest from the
following perspectives. 1) This study provides the evacuation plan
using the default information of roads. However, it is interesting to
generate more reliable evacuation plans combined with the con-
gestion of road. 2) It is essential to develop microscopic evacuation
plans in some kinds of huge buildings, which is the basement of
transit-based evacuation. 3) Another future consideration is to
extend this work to dynamic cases or other logistics studies. We
can take the evacuee-arrival distribution into account when the
completion time of pick-up point is not obvious greater than the
walking time of evacuee. 4) In our study, we applied only one vehi-
cle type to evacuate evacuees. It is a significant topic to extend the
model to heterogeneous fleet cases. These questions will be consid-
ered in further research.
 X. Gao et al. / Measurement 145 (2019) 713–723 723

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