Five sheets in this workbook:

1. A priori 2. Empirical- Graph 3.Empirical- Dataset 4. Empirical- TimeSeries 5. Fun

What to do? Fill Green-coloured cells

 Marginal probability Joint Probability Conditional probability
King 4/52 Red and Picture 6/52 Club/Black 13/26
Red Red and Number 6/Black
Picture Black and <6 6/Club
Number Red and 10 Red/7
Ace Spade and Picture 7/Red
<4 Red and Heart Picture/Red
>4 King and Queen Red/Picture
=4 Black and Heart Black/Club
Spade Red and Black Even/8

Black or Picture 32/52

Red or King
Red or Number

Type the answer as 1/2 and not as 0.5; 1/4 and not as 0.25, etc.
 Contingency tables- Probability

Red NotRed Total

King 2/52
NotKing
Total

Red NotRed Total

Picture 6/52 6/52
NotPicture Consider Ace as a number card=1.
Total

Diamond NotDiamond Total

Picture 3/52
NotPicture
Total
 Range, mm Frequency Probability
<200
200-250
250-300
300-350
350-400
400-450
Total

Count frequency manually from the graph.

https://tropicsu.org/lesson-plan-basic-data-handling-using-climate-data/
 Potential applications-
Design of dam/reservoir capacity Civil Engg
Compute return period Civil Engg
Chances of drought year MGNREGA
Chances of 3 consecutive drought years MGNREGA
Crop damage and insurance premium to be paid Insurance

-handling-using-climate-data/
 ID Num Gender Age

Frequency Probability, % ID01 m 19

Male Hint: =Countif(Range,"m") ID02 m 21
Female ID03 m 20
Total 1 ID04 m 18
ID05 m 19
Frequency Probability, % ID06 m 21
Fresher ID07 m 20
Sophomore ID08 m 21
Junior ID09 f 20
Senior ID10 m 19
Total 1 ID11 m 36
ID12 f 19
Frequency Probability, % ID13 f 20
P(Height>65) ID14 f 21
P(GPA<3.00) ID15 f 19
ID16 m 20
P(Fresher Or Junior) ID17 f 19
P(Junior Or Male) ID18 m 20
P(Junior And Male) ID19 m 23
ID20 m 20
P(Junior/Male) ID21 f 20
P(Male/Height>65) ID22 f 19
P(Male/Height<=65) ID23 f 19
P(Junior/GPA<3.5) ID24 f 20
ID25 f 22
ID26 f 21
ID27 m 21
ID28 m 30
ID29 f 20
ID30 m 24
ID31 f 19
ID32 f 33
ID33 f 19
ID34 m 20
ID35 f 22
ID36 m 21
ID37 f 19
ID38 f 21
ID39 m 20
ID40 f 20
ID41 f 19
ID42 f 21
ID43 m 20
ID44 m 19
ID45 m 22
ID46 m 21
ID47 f 22
ID48 m 19
ID49 m 20
ID50 f 20
 Grad Expected Annual Salary in Employment Number of Satisfaction
Height Class Major GPA Spending
School Salary 5 Years Status Affiliations Advisement

69 so mr y 3.19 40 70 un 0 2 550
67 sr m un 3.11 50 60 pt 0 2 400
68 jr ef n 3.02 50 60 pt 0 5 450
79 fr ef y 4.00 50 57 pt 0 5 360
67 so m y 2.75 40 100 pt 1 1 500
70 jr a y 3.24 60 100 pt 2 5 650
68 jr ef y 2.93 50 75 un 0 4 500
71 jr m y 3.26 40 60 pt 0 1 500
62 so mr n 3.21 45 65 pt 0 4 350
70 so a y 3.23 50 70 pt 0 6 300
67 so a un 3.77 60 120 pt 1 4 200
65 so a un 3.71 40 60 un 0 5 550
65 jr a un 3.20 45 65 pt 3 5 425
65 jr mr y 2.94 40 60 pt 0 4 600
66 so mr y 3.22 40 80 pt 0 3 600
69 jr un un 3.34 60 90 pt 0 5 400
64 fr ib un 3.09 40 65 un 1 4 250
67 jr mr n 3.72 50 80 pt 2 4 350
70 jr ef un 2.50 50 75 un 0 2 400
70 so ef y 2.74 60 75 un 0 4 400
63 so mr y 3.55 60 100 pt 2 5 500
67 so m un 3.00 45 65 pt 0 3 600
65 so mr y 3.62 40 90 pt 0 3 400
63 jr m un 2.60 40 60 pt 1 3 500
63 sr ef y 3.63 50 150 pt 3 6 1000
65 sr o n 2.38 40 60 pt 2 4 300
73 jr m y 2.45 40 65 pt 0 2 450
71 jr m n 3.28 50 75 pt 0 5 550
66 so ib un 3.18 50 75 un 1 5 600
62 so a n 3.33 55 85 pt 0 4 400
69 so mr un 2.87 30 50 pt 0 3 700
67 sr a n 3.14 45 75 ft 0 5 500
64 fr ib n 3.44 45 90 pt 1 6 350
72 so m y 3.85 60 100 pt 1 1 450
61 jr o y 3.50 45 60 un 0 7 600
69 so ef n 2.92 55 85 pt 0 5 400
60 fr a un 2.80 55 80 pt 0 3 450
66 jr mr un 2.67 40 65 pt 0 3 800
69 so a un 2.65 45 80 un 0 3 400
63 so is n 2.88 50 80 un 1 4 375
65 so ef un 3.43 50 100 pt 0 3 400
63 jr ef y 3.48 60 110 pt 0 5 500
68 so a un 2.91 45 90 pt 1 4 350
72 so a n 2.75 50 80 pt 0 5 525
69 jr is y 3.62 55 85 un 2 4 400
68 jr m n 2.42 35 60 pt 1 3 450
66 jr mr n 2.76 40 65 pt 0 3 500
69 fr un un 3.10 45 70 pt 0 4 400
68 so is n 2.61 40 65 pt 1 3 450
66 so is n 3.13 45 80 pt 0 2 500
 Indices : S&P BSE SENSEX
Period : 01-Jul-2020 to 21-Aug-2020
Trading Day Date Open High Low Close Compute for Close
1 7/1/2020 35,010 35,467 34,927 35,414
2 7/2/2020 35,604 36,015 35,595 35,844 Change
3 7/3/2020 36,025 36,110 35,872 36,021 Up
4 7/6/2020 36,313 36,662 36,254 36,487 Down
5 7/7/2020 36,660 36,723 36,271 36,675 Total
6 7/8/2020 36,738 36,828 36,234 36,329
7 7/9/2020 36,451 36,806 36,422 36,738 Change, Absolute
8 7/10/2020 36,555 36,749 36,401 36,594 -750 to -500
9 7/13/2020 36,881 37,024 36,534 36,694 -500 to -250
10 7/14/2020 36,517 36,538 35,877 36,033 -250 to 0
11 7/15/2020 36,315 36,810 35,895 36,052 0 to 250
12 7/16/2020 36,401 36,525 36,038 36,472 250 to 500
13 7/17/2020 36,548 37,126 36,513 37,020 500 to 750
14 7/20/2020 37,409 37,479 37,186 37,419 Total
15 7/21/2020 37,824 37,991 37,742 37,930
16 7/22/2020 38,178 38,199 37,602 37,872 Change %
17 7/23/2020 37,815 38,225 37,739 38,140 <-1.5
18 7/24/2020 37,950 38,236 37,748 38,129 -1.5 to -1.0
19 7/27/2020 38,275 38,275 37,769 37,935 -1.0 to -0.5
20 7/28/2020 38,052 38,555 37,998 38,493 -0.5 to 0
21 7/29/2020 38,427 38,617 37,884 38,071 0 to 0.5
22 7/30/2020 38,263 38,414 37,678 37,736 0.5 to 1.0
23 7/31/2020 37,848 37,898 37,432 37,607 1.0 to 1.5%
24 8/3/2020 37,596 37,596 36,911 36,940 > 1.5%
25 8/4/2020 37,093 37,746 36,988 37,688 Total
26 8/5/2020 37,892 38,140 37,551 37,663
Compute for Close
S&P BSE Sensex- Closing Prices
40,000
Frequency Probability 39,000
38,000
37,000
25 1 36,000
35,000
Frequency Probability 34,000

Trading day no.

25 1

Frequency Probability

25 1
A coin is tossed, and the outcome is an Head.
What is the probability the coin is fair?
Hint: Use conditional probability.

P(CoinIsFair/OutcomeIsHead) ?