PROBABILITY

A bag contains 7 red and 3 yellow marbles. A marble is drawn out of the bag then replaced
before a second marble is drawn out. What is the chance that the marbles are

a) the same colour

b) different colours?

Probability means chance. Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to

occur.

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠

Many events cannot be predicted with total certainty. We can predict only the chance of
an event occurring. Probability can range from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event is
impossible and 1 indicates a certain event.

A population is everything or everyone with some characteristic, for example

• All people over 100 years old

• All brown birds
• All the students in a school
• All cars of a particular model.

A sample is a small set that is chosen from the population to provide information about
it. To be useful a sample must be representative of the population. This is often achieved
by choosing a random sample, but this is not always possible. The larger the sample, the
more accurate it is likely to be. The probability of all the events in a sample space
sums to 1.

EXAMPLE 1

It is believed that a rare bird species has more males than

females. After a long search, a team of scientists find a colony
of these birds. 16 of them are male and 4 are female.

1. Estimate the probability that a bird of this type is male.

2. Comment on the sampling method.

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SOLUTION

1. The total number of birds is 16 + 4 = 20. The estimated probability that a bird in the
population is male is
16
𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) = = 0.8
20
2. The sample is not random. It is just one group of the birds. The sample is small so the
estimate is unlikely to be accurate. If the scientists can find more birds, and so have
a larger sample, the estimate should be more reliable.

QUESTIONS

1. Here is the result of a traffic survey a council did over one week on a busy road. It
shows the numbers of trucks, buses, cars and motorbikes that used the road.

Trucks Buses Cars Motorbikes

Frequency 16000 10000 240000 9000

a) Keith stands at the side of this road. Estimate the probability that the next vehicle
to go past Keith is
i. a car
ii. a motorbike
iii. not a truck
b) In one day, 15000 vehicles go past a particular point. Estimate the number of
buses to pass that point.

2. Sean has a box of pens. The box contains 6 blue pens, 8 black pens and 3 red
pens.
a) What is the probability that he will pick a blue pen?
b) What is the probability that he will pick a green pen?
c) Some more blue pens are added to the box. The probability of selecting a
blue pen is now ½. How many blue pens were added to the box?

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MULTIPLICATION RULE

When a coin is flipped and a die is rolled then the score on the die does not change the
likelihood of getting heads on the coin. So ‘rolling a 6’ and ‘heads’ are independent.

Events are independent if the outcome of one does not affect the outcomes of the other.
For two independent events, A and B, then

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

1 1 1
𝑃(6 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = × =
6 2 12
EXAMPLE 2
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled.
a) The coin is flipped 10 times and each time shows a tail. What is the probability that
the 11th time it will also show a tail?
b) A die is rolled 100 times and a six has not yet been rolled. What is the probability
that the next roll will give a six?
c) What is the probability of getting a ‘tail’ and a ‘6’ together?
SOLUTION
a) Each flip of a coin is an independent event. What has happened in previous flips
does not affect it so the probability is 1/2.
b) Each roll of a die is an independent event so the probability of scoring a six on
each roll is exactly the same. The probability of scoring a six on the 100th roll is
1/6.
c) The events are independent, so
𝑃(𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑎𝑛𝑑 6) = 𝑃(𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙) × 𝑃(6)
1 1 1
= × =
2 6 12

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QUESTIONS

1. Two dice are rolled. Calculate the probability that

a) both dice show a 6
b) neither die shows a 6.

2. Helen is taking part in a quiz on TV. The probability she answers a question correctly
is ⅘. Helen is asked two questions Calculate the probability she answers both
questions correctly.

3. Matthew is playing darts. The probability he hits a bullseye is 0.3. Matthew throws two
darts.
a) Find the probability Matthew hits the bullseye with both darts.
b) Find the probability Matthew does not hit the bullseye with either dart.

ADDITION RULE

When you toss a coin, you cannot get both heads and tails! The outcomes ‘heads’ and
‘tails’ are said to be mutually exclusive. Two events or outcomes are mutually exclusive
if they cannot both happen. When two events or outcomes are mutually exclusive then
the probability that one or the other of them happens can be found by adding their
individual probabilities.
EXAMPLE 3
A bag contains 20 marbles. Five of them are blue, two are green and the rest are other
colours. A marble is selected at random. What is the probability that it is
a) blue
b) green
c) blue or green

4
 d) neither blue nor green?
SOLUTION
5
a) 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 20 = 0.25
2
b) 𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 20 = 0.1
c) 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) + 𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 0.25 + 0.1 = 0.35
d) 𝑃(𝑛𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 1 − 035 = 0.65

QUESTIONS

1. A raffle has tickets numbered from 1 to 300. Richard has 5 tickets and Sue has 7
tickets. One ticket is drawn to find the winner of the prize. What is the probability that
a) Richard wins the prize
b) Sue wins the prize
c) Either Richard or Sue win the prize?

2. Ben always cycles, walks or drives to work. On any day, the probability that Ben cycles
to work is 1/3 and the probability that he drives is 1/4. Calculate the probability that
a) Ben walks to work
b) Ben either walks or cycles.