Greenland

(Denmark)

Alaska (US) Iceland Sweden

Reykjavik

Finland
Faeroe Islands
(Denmark) Russian Federation
Norway
Oslo Helsinki
Tallinn St Petersburg
Stockholm
Estonia
Gothenburg
Riga Yekaterinburg
Northern Latvia Nizhniy Novgorod
Tomsk

Canada
Ireland
(UK)
DenmarkCopenhagen Malmo Lithuania Moscow
Novosibirsk
Kaliningrad Vilnius
(Russia)
Minsk
Dublin Belarus Samara
Ireland United Netherlands
Berlin
Kingdom Amsterdam
Poland Warsaw
London
Astana
Calgary Brussels Germany Sakhalin
Belgium Kyiv Aktobe
Prague
Luxembourg Czechia
Vancouver Ukraine
Paris Slovakia
Vienna Khabarovsk
Austria
Bratislava Kazakhstan Ulaanbaatar
Seattle Budapest Moldova
Liechtenstein Rostov on Don Atyrau
Quebec Bern Hungary Chisinau
France Switzerland Slovenia Mongolia
Montreal Ljubljana Zagreb Romania Harbin
Ottawa Croatia
Minneapolis Belgrade
Bosnia and Serbia Bucharest
Toronto Herzegovina Sarajevo Urumqi Changchun
Italy Almaty Vladivostok
Montenegro Sapporo
Andorra Corsica Podgorica Kosovo Sofia Bishkek
Detroit Boston Bulgaria Georgia
Chicago (France) Rome Albania Skopje
Barcelona Tirana North Macedonia
Tbilisi Uzbekistan Tashkent Shenyang
Istanbul
Azerbaijan Kyrgyzstan
New York
Madrid
Armenia
Philadelphia Ankara Yerevan Baku Beijing
United States of America Portugal Spain
Greece Turkey Nakhchivan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Tianjin
North Korea
Pyongyang
Washington (DC) (Azerbaijan) Dalian
St Louis Lisbon Dushanbe
San Francisco Athens Ashgabat
Annaba Seoul
Algiers Tunis Kurdistan Region Japan
Gibraltar Erbil
South Korea
Oran Malta Tehran Tokyo
Cyprus Nagoya
Osaka
Zhengzhou
Lebanon Syria Kabul Kashmir
Xi’an
Los Angeles
Phoenix Atlanta Casablanca Rabat
Tunisia Beirut
Damascus Baghdad Afghanistan Islamabad China Fukuoka

Dallas Madeira
Tripoli Israel
Tijuana Bermuda (UK) (Portugal) Amman Iraq Iran
Kandahar Lahore
Shanghai
Pacific Morocco Alexandria Palestinian Territories Chengdu Wuhan
Basra
Ocean Houston Atlantic Cairo Jordan Pakistan
New Orleans Canary Islands Chongqing
Hermosillo Ocean (Spain) Kuwait Nepal
Delhi
Algeria
Kathmandu
Libya Bhutan
Egypt Khobar Bahrain Fuzhou
Monterrey Miami
Qatar Dubai
Karachi Kunming Taipei
Bahamas Western Riyadh
Abu Dhabi Bangladesh Pacific
Havana
Sahara UAE Muscat Dhaka
Ocean
Saudi Ahmedabad Guangzhou
Mexico Tampico Arabia India Kolkata Chittagong
Shenzhen
Hong Kong
Cuba Turks and Caicos
Cancún
Jeddah Oman Myanmar Hanoi
Guadalajara
Hawaiian Islands (US) Dominican British Virgin Naypyidaw
Mexico City Port Sudan
Port-au-Prince Republic Islands
Mauritania Mumbai Laos
Cayman Islands Anguilla (UK)
(UK) Kingston Santo Domingo St Martin
Sint Maarten
Nouakchott Vientiane
Puerto Rico
Belize City
Jamaica Haiti Niger Hyderabad
Acapulco US Virgin Islands Antigua and Barbuda Mali Yangon
Belize St Kitts and Nevis Guadeloupe (France)
Cabo Verde Eritrea Yemen N. Mariana Is. (US)
Guatemala San Pedro Sula Dominica Chad Khartoum
Asmara Sanaa
Honduras Martinique (France) Dakar
Sudan Thailand
Guatemala City Manila
Tegucigalpa St Lucia
Senegal
San Salvador Niamey Bangkok
El Salvador St Vincent and Gambia Banjul
Philippines Guam (US)
Nicaragua Aruba Curaçao the Grenadines Barbados Bamako
Ouagadougou
Aden Bangalore Chennai Vietnam
Managua Grenada Bissau Kano N’Djamena Cambodia
Bonaire Burkina Faso Djibouti Djibouti City Phnom Penh
Guinea-Bissau Guinea
Trinidad and Tobago Ho Chi Minh City
Costa Rica Caracas Nigeria Hargeisa Cebu
San José
Conakry Benin
Colón Panama City Ghana Abuja Addis Ababa
Somaliland
Freetown
Côte Togo Ethiopia
Panama Sierra Leone d'Ivoire South
Marshall Is. (US)
Central African Sri Lanka
Venezuela Georgetown Monrovia Yamoussoukro Porto-Novo
Lagos Sudan Colombo
Medellín Paramaribo
Lomé Republic Federated States of Micronesia
Guyana Liberia Abidjan Accra Sulu
Penang
Bogotá Cayenne Port Harcourt Cameroon Juba Aceh
Brunei Archipelago
Bangui
SurinameFrench Guiana Douala
Malabo Yaoundé Malaysia
Cali Colombia (France) Maldives Kuala Lumpur
Somalia
Equatorial Guinea Mogadishu
São Tomé and Príncipe Uganda Singapore
Libreville Kampala Kenya
Quito
Congo Congo Kismayo
(Democratic Republic of) Kalimantan
Ecuador Gabon Nairobi
Belém Rwanda Kigali
Guayaquil Sulawesi
São Luis Kiribati
Bujumbura Sumatra
Fortaleza Brazzaville Burundi Papua
Mombasa Maluku
Kinshasa
Cabinda
Tanzania Seychelles
(Angola) Zanzibar Papua Bougainville (PNG)
Natal Mbuji-Mayi Dodoma Jakarta New
Dar es Salaam
Java Surabaya
Indonesia Guinea
Recife
Luanda
Pacific Maceió Timor-Leste Port Moresby Solomon Islands
Ocean
Peru Comoros Indian
Lima Brazil Atlantic Lubumbashi Ocean
Salvador Ocean Angola Mayotte Darwin
Malawi (France)

Zambia
Lilongwe Samoa
Lusaka
Brasília Blantyre
Arequipa La Paz Vanuatu Fiji
Cairns
Bolivia Harare
Santa Cruz
Mozambique Antananarivo
Zimbabwe
Belo Horizonte Bulawayo Beira Port Louis
Madagascar Mauritius Tonga
New Caledonia
Namibia Réunion (France)
(France)
Rio de Janeiro Windhoek Botswana
Paraguay São Paulo

Asunción
Gaborone
Australia
Pretoria
Johannesburg Mbabane Maputo
Chile eSwatini
Brisbane

Maseru Lesotho
Durban

South Africa
Córdoba Santa Fe
Perth

Rosario
Santiago Uruguay Cape Town Sydney
Buenos Aires
Adelaide
Montevideo Canberra

Auckland
Argentina Melbourne

New Zealand

Wellington

Christchurch

Falkland Islands (UK)

Download the global forecast for 2023: Business Risk Forecast

controlrisks.com/riskmap
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
This is an outlook for the business
risk environment in each country on a
ten-point scale. The score is a composite
The Risk Ratings are compiled from sources that Control Risks considers to be reliable risk score that factors in Control Risks’
or are expressions of opinion. Control Risks has made reasonable commercial efforts political, security, operational,
Very low-increasing/ Medium, increasing/ High, increasing/ Very
to ensure the accuracy of the information on which the Risk Ratings are based. regulatory, cyber and integrity risks, Very low-stable Low-stable Low-increasing Medium, decreasing Medium, static High, static Very high-stable
including a range of ESG-related risks. Low-decreasing High, decreasing high, decreasing
However, the Risk Ratings are provided ‘as is’ and include reasonable judgements
Each rating reflects our outlook
in the circumstances prevailing at the time. The Risk Ratings provided should not be regarding overall risks to business at Risks to business very Between very low and low Risks to business low Risks to business low Risks to business Risks to business moderate Between medium and high Risks to business high and Between high and very Risks to business very high
construed as definitive or binding advice. Boundaries and names shown on this map the end of 2023 taking into account low and stable. A risk, the business environment and stable. A business but increasing. Generally moderate and decreasing. and static. Some areas will risk and subject to change, static, posing significant high risk, posing significant and remaining so, precluding
do not imply endorsement or acceptance by Control Risks. known or anticipated trends and business environment will be generally benign, but environment that will benign but posing some Challenging in some pose challenges to business posing elevated threats challenges to business operations. challenges to business and normal business operations.
developments that could impact the that will be predictable, subject to change. be generally predictable, challenges that require areas, the business that will be manageable. to business. Intensive risk Intensive management needed subject to change. Special precautions required
Copyright © Control Risks 2023. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part business environment during the year. stable, and supportive. stable, and benign. management. environment will improve. management required. to maintain operations. to operate.
prohibited without the prior consent of the Company.
 GEOPOLITICAL
Policies to watch in 2023 US semiconductor
manufacturing supply
China chain (simplified flow)
 “Dynamic zero COVID” policy
 Localisation policies (across esign

Source: US-based Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)

2.D
The US-China relationship is the greatest geopolitical risk for businesses in 2023. Conflict multiple sectors)

&D
1.R
remains very unlikely in 2023, but both countries are striving to be ready for when a  2023 Negative List
USA
crisis comes. Short of active conflict, companies in 2023 must monitor efforts to decouple  2023 Encouraged Industries for
critical supply chains. Foreign Investment
The Globa
 Possible enforcement of Law on
l Risk Fore
Countering Foreign Sanctions,
Silicon
wa
cast
The solar photovoltaic supply chain is dominated by China f

er
Export Control Law, and

fab
Unreliable Entities List

rication
Source: Solar Photovoltaics: Supply Chain Deep Dive
Japan/
Production capacity by process stage (% global capacity) Assessment,US Department of Energy, February 2022
Europe

RiskMap is the leading annual forecast of

Polysilicon 72 28
United States fab
rica
tion 23

uit
Circ
 CHIPS Act Taiwan
Ingots 98 2  Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (China)/South
Korea/USA

business risks for a world in flux. It draws

 Holding Foreign Companies
Accountable Act (HFCA)
Assem
Wafers 97 3  Outbound investment bly
,

te
screening mechanism

stin
on Control Risks expertise from across the

g, and packag
 Connected apps and Malaysia/
Singapore
Cells 81 19 cross-border data
protection regulations

ing
(A

globe to deliver critical insights, helping

TP)
turing
fac
Modules 77 23 nu

ma
Product
China

businesses and organisations navigate risk

Inverter
58 42
(semiconductors) “China is racing to
Inverter
move its manufacturing “Rising bilateral End co
nsu
dominance up the tensions will

and succeed in a volatile world.

43 57

mp
(passive

tion
components) value chain and not affect all USA
become self-sufficient companies equally.”
0 25 50 75 100
in critical technologies.”
 China  Rest of the World  China & Asia

SECURITY OPERATIONAL
Number of active conflicts by year, 1946–2021 Source: UCDP PRIO dataset Green hydrogen risk ratings Source: Control Risks

Extra-systemic conflict Inter-state conflict

50 50

40 40
GEOPOLITICAL High High Low Low Medium
Direct impacts plus escalation and overspill risk from the Ukraine-Russia conflict will 30 30 Managing energy disruption and adaptation will be the main operational risk in 2023.
remain through 2023. Many businesses are assessing the impact of a conflict or escalation
in East Asia, given the region’s importance to global trade, manufacturing and growth.
20 20
Businesses should plan how to survive the price and supply shock, and how to thrive
in a new, comprehensively rewired, global energy system.
REGULATORY High Medium High Medium Medium
Control Risks is a global specialist
OPERATIONAL
10 10

risk consultancy that helps to

High Medium High Low Low
0 0
Northeast Asia GDP, GDP growth Three key drivers of change
1940

1950

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020
2021

1940

1950

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020
2021
1960

1960
SECURITY Medium High Medium Low Medium
and FDI Inflows (2021) in the global energy system
“In 2023 war, or Internal conflict Internationalised internal conflict
create secure, compliant and

PRODUCTION

TRANSPORTATION
& STORAGE

TRANSPORT
(SHIPPING, RAIL,
TRUCKS, CARS)

INDUSTRY
PROCESSES

POWER
GENERATION
GDP growth (annual %)1
the prospect of 50 50
ecu
rity and price
wc
arbon transit
ion chn
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“Energy
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resilient organisations. By
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5. 8
war, on several 40 40
disruption

rg
%

tio
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n
GDP (current US$) 1
timelines and 30 30
presents both
combining unrivalled expertise
6 .4
tn

FDI inflows as a % of global total2 triggers should 20 20

risks and
be high on 10 10

opportunities.”
everyone’s 0 0
and experience with the power
1940

1950

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020
2021

1940

1950

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020
2021
1960

1960

USE
20

risk register.”
of data and technology, we provide
.8%

774.7bn3 Countries or regions with the biggest export values of

8.1%

368.1bn
electronic integrated circuits in 2020 (in billion USD) Source: UN Comtrade
Energy vulnerability levels vary significantly across Europe
0.3%
Commitment to decarbonisation targets Source: Science Based Targets and Control Risks Source: Control Risks

153.9 117.0 82.9 44.2 49.3 Even in a time of crisis, companies continue to increase their decarbonisation commitments  High the insight and intelligence you
1. 8 t n

“Conflict risks are  Medium

need to stay on track, realise

8 .9

2022 1,789  Low

not just a matter
%
5 .7

1.5%
1,282
%

2021
for corporate
2

1%
tn
4.

opportunities and grow.

9t

11. 4 % 1
7.

%
n

security directors 368 “This is not

1.6

2020
Hong Kong South Korea
– local or regional Mainland China US Malaysia
4.0
%
2019 189
the time for
flashpoints 123.1 86.2 64.4 28.9 14 65
6.4%
 Mainland China can rapidly have Japan
2018
neglecting
 Hong Kong 2017 34
renewables.”
Vietnam

1
World Bank  East Asia & Pacific  Taiwan global impacts.”
(whole region)  Japan
United Nations Conference on
23.7
2

Trade and Development (UNCTAD)  East Asia & Pacific  Republic of Korea 0 500 1000 1500 2000
3
International Monetary Fund (IMF) (rest of region) (South Korea) Taiwan Singapore Others Philippines Companies setting targets

CYBER REGULATORY
Changes to digital legislation and regulations Forecast government fiscal balances in 2023 Source: IMF
controlrisks.com

Russia US China World Advanced Emerging Developing Oil

Tech sanctions CHIPS Act Cybersecurity Economies Markets Countries Producers Major Event Risk and Security

2020

2021

2022

2023

2020

2021

2022

2023

2020

2021

2022

2023

2020

2021

2022

2023

2020

2021

2022

2023
Training and Development Solutions
In 2023, we will witness the beginnings of a fundamental breakdown of global networks Governments around the world will be targeting revenue and striving to steady state 0.2 Third party risk management
into distinct regional, or even national architectures, caused by the weaponisation of finances. Wherever they turn, the corporate world will feel the heat one way or another. -0.5 Investigations, Litigation and Forensics
cyberspace and a clash of national interests. Austerity, shortage and strife will set the tone in 2023.
-2.2 Sanctions and trade compliance
-2.9
-4.0
-4.3
Industrial control system vulnerabilities disclosed Source: Control Risks
Sanctions and restrictions USD52bn investment Cybersecurity review for national
Top regulatory risks by major sector Source: Control Risks -4.9 -5.3 -5.5 -5.1 -4.9 -5.2
-4.6 Ethics, Compliance and Governance
-5.7
by US’ ICS-CERT escalate on cutting-edge tech in semiconductor manufacturing; security impacts across data -6.4 Ransomware and extortion response
While most of these risks will apply to every sector, Control Risks advises these sectors should -7.3 -7.4
ICS Cyber exploitation based on Control Risks tracking campaigns globally. We are seeing exports to Russia signals return of industrial policy processing organisations
as part of geopolitical competition particularly watch for the following categories of policy response Crisis Response
a related growth in the vulnerabilities of connected infrastructure and their exploitation by -9.3
with China -9.9
threat actors. It will continue to get worse… -10.5 Organisational Resilience
600 30 ICS Other technology and digital initiatives
vulnerabilities Inflation related unrest | energy and food prices Sources: Price data: World Bank | Unrest data: Seerist
Cyber and Digital
discovered EU China US Windfall taxes Trade controls Resource Non-financial Price Labour
500 25
KEY RISKS

ICS cyber Data Governance Act, China standards Clean Network Price controls Global nationalism reporting controls regulations
250
Investment Support
exploitation 180.0
Digital Services Act package 2035 Initiative Trade controls minimum Sanctions Supply chain
400 20 tax rules due diligence
ESG and Sustainable Business
Digital markets overhaul Global tech standards Network infrastructure security Sanctions 160.0
Data protection
300 15 200 Operational and Protective Security
140.0
OIL AND GAS

TECHNOLOGY

MINING

FINANCIAL

PHARMACEUTICAL

MANUFACTURING

Risk monitoring and threat intelligence programmes

200 10
150 120.0
Security Risk Management
100 5
100.0 Political and Country Risk
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
0 100
80.0
SERVICES
75 15
60.0
50

60
In 2023, % Companies could 40.0
trillion

It is estimated that more than

“Ultimately, tomorrow’s invest a total
% “Regulatory changes in
more than
of the world’s
GDP will be digital organisation will
of up to
2023 will establish a new
“Companies will have to 0 20.0
OUR

May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18

digitalised grapple with heightened

in 2023
of the world’s population will be covered be a fragmented one.” in IoT by 2025 threshold in government
uncertainty.” Total Unrest Energy Price Index Food Price Index
by at least one data privacy regulation (Gigabit) intervention.” The frequency of inflation-related unrest worldwide has increased sharply since mid-2021. Food and fuel prices
are likely to remain elevated in 2023 and will continue to drive elevated levels of unrest and political instability.