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Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear
Power Plants in view of the Fukushima event
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Dan Serbanescu
Romanian Academy
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DOI: 10.10040/RG.2.5.70059
Technical presentation
At the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins,
Vienna 3-5 August 2011
What is be the goal of DSME?
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
General Nuclear Safety Objective:
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Radiation Protection Objective
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
What is the status of the rule
framework on SDME?
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Example INSAG 3/12 compliant risk targets
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Risk targets historical evolution – sample presentation
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
A representation of the evolution of the risk related targets (3)
1,0E-02
1,0E-03
Event frequency [1/year]
1,0E-04
1,0E-05
CDFdesigned
Average LRF
1,0E-06 CDF Average
LRF Average
1,0E-07
1,0E-08
Source: IAEA
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Risk targets – Defense in Depth (DiD)
targets
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Defence in depth as per INSAG 3/12 (1)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
A representation of the evolution of the risk related targets/tools as per
most representative IAEA reference milestones (1)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
A look on the situation
from
the whole nuclear system perspective
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Nuclear Power Plants production and generation evolution as per IAEA documents
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Which methods
to use to prove
Safety Margin compliance?
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
On important issues there are
no totally new issues to
evaluate
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Nuclear technology s-curve from safety Margin (SM) perspective
Safety
margin for
Safety Gen. IV NPP
margin for
Gen. III NPP
Safety
margin for
Gen. II and
II+ NPP
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Risk requirements real evolution and the “cusp” evolution moments
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Safety Paradigms change over time due to major accidents
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Main features of the Nuclear Structure Matrix at a certain moment before a major accident
2 Design maturity and level of complexity of the plant design - NPP and nuclear infrastructure as complex systems
3 Research progress and support to research by nuclear system and society in general
4 Commercial targets - support for new built plants, operation of existing plants
TOTAL STRM
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Main features of the Nuclear Structure Matrix and the safety paradigm evolution
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Input to matrix evaluation for the decision process on the dominant aspects to be evaluated
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
SAMPLE LIST OF ISSUES TO BE EVALUATED AS PART OF CHECK LIST BY VARIOUS APPROACHES
(OPTIONS A TO E) (1)
Issues to be evaluated/Priority in various CATEGORY
Option Option Option Option
A B C E
evaluation options
1 Defense in Depth – risk balanced RIDM as method referrence IPE/IPEEE M-DID&RISK H L L H
M- PRA L2&3
8 Use of PRA level 2 and 3 for Emergency Planning EP
M H L H
9 Hydrogen control inside containments and other buildings (spent fuel) M- HYD M H M H
M-POOL DBA
10 Spent fuel cooling for DBA & BDBA and reduction of spent fuel inventories & BDBA
M H H H
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
SAMPLE LIST OF ISSUES TO BE EVALUATED AS PART OF CHECK LIST BY VARIOUS APPROACHES
(OPTIONS A TO E) (2)
PROC-EP MULT
15 EP at multiunit sites for postulated IE and SA SA
H H H H
PROC - EP SBO
16 EP for prolonged blackouts LONG
H H H H
MNG-REG
19 SA regulatory requirements – research/ guideline SA+DBA
L H L H
MNG-SMALL
20 Small utilities coping with catastrophic events UTIL EP
L H L H
MNG-SITE
21 Site accessibility after severe SA AFTER SA
L H L H
MNG-DEC
22 Decision process in catastrophic events CATSTR
L H L H
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Debate on the use of
deterministic versus probabilistic
type of methods
OR
What is more conservative?
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Conservatism-an illustration
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Main Results of a safety evaluation (1)
DAMAGE
PROBABILITY
RISK
UNCERTANTY
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Main Results of a safety evaluation (2)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Deterministic versus probabilistic in the definition of the Emergency Zoning zones and tasks (5)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Deterministic versus probabilistic in the definition of the Emergency Zoning zones and tasks (3)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Deterministic versus probabilistic in the definition of the Emergency Zoning zones and tasks (4)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
SA RELEASES IN GAS REACTORS
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
RC0,RC1,RC2, DRC0,DRC1,DRC2
Sample of severe accidents risk evaluation for a generation IV gas reactor (1)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Sample of severe accidents interdependence evaluation for a generation IV gas reactor (3)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Sample of severe accidents interdependence evaluation for a generation IV gas reactor (4)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Calculations compared to the category definitions, which consider only their frequencies
1.80E-01
Frequency
1.60E-01
Category A
1.40E-01
ECP
Transients 1.20E-01 Categ. = max 0.1 %
Category A A
1.00E-01
ECP
8.00E-02 No impact
Categ.B or C
6.00E-02
TOTAL value Category B
for RC 1
4.00E-02
3.75 e-02
TOTAL value for RC1
2.00E-02 to RCPF1
Category
6.2 e-03 BDBA
1.8 e-07 1.00E-08
TOTAL value for RCPF2
RC-1 RCF1toRCPF1 RCPF-2
1e-10
Phase 2
results Series1 Expon. (Series1)
Extrapolated curve for the Phase 2
calculations
Impact of HX leaks The IE frequency for HX failure is
on plant sequences considered unchanged
PRA results as included in SAR Chpt19
Sample of severe accidents risk optimization of the design for a generation IV gas reactor (5)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Improvements in risk oriented design – sample HX case
Sample of severe accidents risk optimization of the design for a generation IV gas reactor (6)
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Avoid biases
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Myths on Science
Mc Comas, William, Ten Myths of science: Reexamining what we know, vol 96,
School Science & Mathematics, 01-01-1996, pp10
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011
Myths on Risk
Talk at the conference Stockholm thirty years on. Progress achieved and challenges ahead in international environmental co-operation. Swedish Ministry of the Environment, June 17-18, 2000
Sven Ove Hansson, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm
MyR2 The severity of risks should be judged according to probability weighted averages of the severity of their outcomes.
MyR3 Decisions on risk should be made by weighing total risks against total benefits.
MyR5 Risk-reducing measures in all different sectors of society should be decided according to the same standards.
MyR7 If there is a serious risk, then scientists will find it if they look for it.
Some issues on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margin for Nuclear Power Plants in view of the Fukushima even, dr.ing. Dan Serbanescu
View publication stats Technical presentation at the IAEA Consultant meeting on the Evaluation of the Design Safety Margins, Vienna 3-5 August 2011