Speach SRESAnov 2022 Dan Serbanescu

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Safety and risk for energy systems at crossroads Invited speech at

SRESA
Preprint · November 2022

DOI: 10.16740/RG.2.5.79959
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Dan Serbanescu
Romanian Academy
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Romanian Academy
Romanian Committee on History and Philosophy of Science and Technology (CRIFST)
Division of Logic, Methodology of Science (DLMFS)
Invited Speach to SRESA November 12, 2022
Safety and risk for energy systems

at crossroads
Invited speech at SRESA
Dr.Dan Serbanescu
Division of Logic and Models in Science – CRIFST
Romanian Academy
DOI: 10.16740/RG.2.5.79959
November 12, 2022

Romanian Academy
Some previous works
• A triple facets view on some issues on the interface between quantum mechanics and nuclear
engineering, Dan Serbanescu, Division of Logic and Models of the Romanian Academy, LC
International – International conference and exhibition on Quantum Mechanics on Nuclear
Engineering – 2020 Keynote speaker DOI:
10.13240/RG.2.3.39959https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341684519_A_triple_facets_view_o
n_some_issues_on_the_interface_between_quantum_mechanics_and_nuclear_engineering
• On challenges and changes for complex energy systems, May 2020,DOI: 10.13240/RG.2.2.22359
• Cernavoda 24-25 Iunie 2019, DOI: 10.13240/RG.2.2.28998.70401
• Discours de la création de la réalité -Manifest pentru un viitor al civilizației pământești, February

2017, DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27889.28002 Conference: Simpozionul aniversar In honorem Mircea
Malita 90 Romanian Academy DLMFS
• O introspectie asupra viitorului evolutiei noilor tehnologii asupra fizicii aplicate si energeticii
nucleare -Va fi o evolutie sau o catastrofa ? , Dan Serbanescu, DOI: 10.13240/RG.2.7.79959
Safety and risk for energy systems at crossroads Invited speech at SRESA November 12, , Dr.Dan Serbanescu , Division of Logic and Models in Science Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Safety and risk for energy systems at crossroads
A Talk about Nine Windows to look at Energy Systems
Romanian Academy
A Talk about Nine windows to look at Energy Systems
I. Why energy?
II. Energy Systems (ES) and civilization
III. ES - status and future
IV. ES and CATS model
V. ES concepts -Complexity, Risk and Safety
VI. Knowledge, Sciences, Technologies and ES
VII. Dynamics of ES – on interconnections
VIII. Natural and man made ES- Are they so different?
IX. Knowledge and existence
Discours sur la creation de la realite
Romanian Academy
I. Why energy?
Everything is energy - Chain of energy levels / components-
Energy-life-cosmic
 Subquantic SQ
Quantic Q
Electromagnetic EM
Molecular MO
Molecular and life MOL
Conscious planetary life CPL
Stellar and universe not alive SUNA
Stellar and universe life SUA
Conscious stellar and universe CSU
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
(1)
Energy
described as
category (in
mathematical (1) (2)
sense)
considering the
observer (2)
The “core” of
unchanged
features of
energy system
being changed
/transformed -
syzygy
Romanian Academy
II. Energy Systems (ES) and civilization

Kardashev-Sagan scale civilization levels
Type Terawatts Level of used energy Comments
Existing Earth level cca

4×104 - Solar insolation to
I 4×103 possible to reach
4x105 earth
type I in 100-200 years
Energy radiated by its
II 4×1017 Few thousands years
own star
Energy on the scale of
III 4×1028 One million years
its own galaxy
Romanian Academy
III. ES - status and future
By 2040 an
expanded nuclear
fleet has saved
almost 4 years of
current CO2 and
for some
countries has
improved security
of energy supply
Net capacity in key regions 2013-2040 - IEA outlook 2014
Romanian Academy
Jazz Symphony
CO2 emissions in the Jazz scenario follow a Symphony is on track for 490-535
trajectory consistent with a long-term atmospheric ppm CO2 equivalent
concentration of all GHGs of between 590 and
710 parts per million CO2 equivalent.
Romanian Academy
Academia Romana - Comitetul Român de Istoria si Filsofia Ştiinţei şi Tehnicii (CRIFST)
Divizia de Logică, Metodologie şi Filosofia Ştiinţei (DLMFS)
COLOCVIUL AGIR “CREATIVITATE, INVENTICĂ, ROBOTICĂ”
- ediţia a XXV -a , iulie 2020, Brasov
Creativitate–Inovare–Produse noi–Restructurare industrial
Oklo
2.5by
0.0 3.0 4.0

O introspectie asupra viitorului evolutiei noilor tehnologii asupra fizicii aplicate si energeticii nucleare - Va fi o evolutie sau o catastrofa ?, Dan Serbanescu
Romanian Academy
Evolution/Transitions from ES to another nonlinear depend on

syzygies and enanthiotropy and Phase states of energy systems
Laws of low
doses –
linearity or
not at low
values of
doses
Unknowns
of the
future Social or
economical
Basic constants - alpha pressure
Elements to be considered in ES
scenarios New technologies
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
IV. ES and CATS model
ES are
 Complex
 Apoietic
 Topological
 Systems of systems
Romanian Academy
Transitions at the same energy level

(constant enanthiotropy) from states to
states
Trnasitions create topological spaces
Romanian Academy
TRANSITIONS
Notațions K(i) are related to transitions from one phase to another of ES and its models p(i) is
probability to move from phase to phase describing enanthiotropy and T(i) is the transition
operator
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Transition matrix between states as a 3D Hierarchical Phase
Romanian Academy
s
y
s
t
e
m
s
S
p
a
c
e
s
t
a
t
e
s
Romanian Academy
GENERAL BASIS FOR THE EVALUATION

Civilization has a two way connection with ES evolution might be described
from the point of view of its capabilities to harness energy sources and manage
risks associated with it
GB2.1 A civilization might be considered based on the
energy that it could harness and use (Kardashev).
From this perspective, our civilization, as a
Complex Apoietic System (CATS) is at a low
fraction of a type 1.
GB2.2 Topological approaches for knowledge

management of CATS
The Knowledge management on CATS acceptable
spaces for various categories of civilization from
the point of view on how the knowledge is
managed From this perspective we are category
III, i.e. governed by inter and trans disciplinarity
Romanian Academy
Transition matrix and

geometrical polyhedral
representation of the
transition phases process
Transition matrix and

geometrical
polyhedral
representation of the
transition phases
process
Romanian Academy
Cybernetics Principles
No Principles Short presentation of principle
One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to
P1 Occam's Razor
explain anything
The Identity of the Two entities that do not have any properties allowing to distinguish them should be
P2 Indistinguishables seen as a single entity
The Principle of
P3 Equal causes have equal effects
Causality
All processes at the lower level of a hierarchy are restrained by and act in conformity
P4 Downward Causation
to the laws of the higher level
Blind Variation and "Blind Variation and Selective Retention" (BVSR) -Donald T. Campbell, as a way of
P5 Selective Retention describing the most fundamental principle underlying Darwinian evolution.
The Principle of Stable configurations that facilitate the appearance of configurations similar to
P6 Autocatalytic Growth themselves will become more numerous
The Principle of The larger the variety of configurations a system undergoes, the larger the probability
P7 Selective Variety that at least one of these configurations will be selectively retained
The Principle of
BVSR processes recursively construct stable systems by the recombination of stable
Recursive Systems
P8 building blocks
Construction
Romanian Academy
No Short presentation of principle

Principles
P9 The Law of Requisite The larger the variety of actions available to a control system, the larger the variety of
Variety perturbations it is able to compensate.
In order to be a proper coordination of actions to perception, the system must be able
to select the correct choice. The ability of the system to avoid incorrect or unviable
Law of choices is a constraint on the behavior of the control system. If no such constraint
P10 Requisite existed, the system would have to try out actions blindly, and the larger the variety of
Constraint - perturbations, the smaller the probability that those actions would turn out to be
adequate.
P11 The Law of requisite In order to adequately compensate perturbations, a control system must "know" which
Knowledge
action to select from the variety of available actions
Lawof Requisite The weaker the average regulatory ability and the larger the average uncertainty of
P12 Hierarchy available regulators, the more requisite hierarchy is needed in the organization of
regulation and control for the same result of regulation
The Principle of
P13 Incomplete Knowledge The model embodied in a control system is necessarily incomplete
Romanian Academy
No Short presentation of principle

Principles
Cybernetics and Systems Science have produced important principles of information
and uncertainty. These principles were developed in the context of specific theories
Principles of Reasoning which represent information and uncertainty using a particular mathematical
P14 with Uncertainty formalism of variety, usually probability and thereby stochastic information
theory.The principles are: •Principle of Uncertainty Maximization •Principle of
Uncertainty Minimization
The Red Queen For an evolutionary system, continuing development is needed just In order to
P15 Principle maintain its fitness relative to the systems it is co-evolving
The generalized "Peter In evolution systems tend to develop up to the limit of their adaptive competence
P16 Principle"
Romanian Academy
Transition from phase to phase and emergence of ES is governed by

Enanthiotropy in a multilevel cybernetic process (more than two levels, in
correspondence with the energy levels in formula (1)
Challenges to ES lead to new states/energy aura for the resulting states
See Case study published on COVID
Romanian Academy
V. ES concepts -Complexity, Risk and Safety - COMPLEXITY
Nuclear engineering is a technology so

technology features apply to it, too.
Romanian Academy
V. ES concepts -Complexity, Risk and Safety

Risk - Safety
ES OBJECTIVE FUNCTIONALS
• Performance function – Energy production
• Safety Function/safety level
• Reliability Equivalent Diagram (3D parametric
case used in Multiunit PRA)
• Risk function/level (3D risk “bowl for
parametric variation)
• Correlations between the functionals
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Analytical evaluations of the space (volumes of acceptable optimal solutions), i.e. a

parametric modelling – function of one variable and one parameter
This type of approaches is based on the evaluation of the dependencies of the optimal
space (in a two dimensional representation) for each criteria defined in Table 1. This
results in a set of acceptable spaces-the resultant acceptable space will be considered as
an envelope of all spaces for a given situation .
Romanian Academy
- Risks defined for

Complex Systems
Category in various
II of cases scenarios of
(A,B,C) evolution/interfere
nce Humans- AI-
Other type of
intelligence
Enveloping surface of
possible states due to
technology variation in a
civilization risk acceptable
states assured by providing
special control (CATS- as
Complex Apoietic
Topological Systems (CATS)
Romanian Academy
VI. Knowledge, Sciences, Technologies and ES
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Facet I: Society-Civilization
Facet II: Emergence &
interface of new sciences/
technologies
Facet III: Knowledge –
“mythology” paradigms
changes in science and
technology
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
However, if there will be more than 3 criteria, then the acceptable space od optimal
solutions will be described by a more complex type of polyhedral, as the Type C of
evaluation will illustrate (and which is symbolically illustrated in the right side )
.Use of ESREDA CUBE to evaluate optimal solutions in safety/reliability

optimization based on 3 criteria
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
• A specific aspect under review as part of post

Fukushima reviews, the evaluation of
multiunit site risks are a very actual topic
under intensive international debate.
• From Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) point of
view this evaluations lead to the need to review
some of the fundamentals of the methodology.
• The single unit PSA (SUPSA) and the Multiunit
PSA (MUPSA) combined methodologies are
currently under review and methodological
development of new approaches.
• Important outcomes of this process are that:
• the Reliability Equivalent Diagrams (RED)
representing the risk models for the MUPSA
projects depend much more than in the case
of SUPSA on various parameters and
• they are build starting with and based on SUPSA
models, in integrated risk
Romanian Academy
EN in era 3.0 si 4.0
Romanian Academy
NT and NE
QM and
review of
reactor
physics
calculations
for instance
Quantum
computers
and
Schroedinger
equation for
reactors
and/or
nanotechnolo
gy and new
materials
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
VII. Dynamics of ES – on interconnections
ES / CATS model interconnected

Define resilience of systems of ES
Survivability in normal and
catastrophic conditions
Romanian Academy
Interfete interne
Conditii initiale
Provocari/perturbari
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
REZULTS
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Confidenc
Survivab
category
Rank of
Impact
results
Group
input
ility
Scenarios
e in
SURV 2 A = Failure of the barrier defined by System 2 of H M HM
SP type for ES1 in Cycle 2
Medium
SURV 3 B= A failure of the barrier system 2 of Safeguards H H HH
and strategic development type for a ES2 under
High
development Cycle 1 due to blocking decisions od
SP type in highly tense initial conditions GC 3 of
the whole system
SURV 3 C = Failure of the barrier defined by System 2 of T M L ML
type for ES3 in Cycle 1 with initial condition GC3
High
of worst type
Romanian Academy
VIII.Natural and man made ES- Are they so different?
Romanian Academy
IX. Knowledge and existence - Discours sur la creation de la realite
Main ideas
 CATS models the OBSERVER, TOO

 KNOWLEDGE MODEL IS EXISTENCE MODEL
 A MOMENT OF SWITCH FROM
• DISCOURS SUR LA METHODE (Pascal 1640)to
• DISCOURS SUR LA CREATION DE LA REALITE
(VIRTUAL AND/OR REAL..What is real?)

Romanian Academy
Models and reality – How credible are the models for civilization
Controlable moderated
risk
Uncontrolable risk
Category I Risks for “standard “ civilization evolution
Category II Risks for non standard evolutions (including singularities AI, Virus etc)
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Romanian Academy
Asymptotic
integration
Romanian Academy
THANK YOU
Let us prepare for our future!
A future of creating realities
Romanian Academy
ANNEX
Academia Romana - Comitetul Român de Istoria si Filsofia Ştiinţei şi Tehnicii (CRIFST)- Divizia de Logică, Metodologie şi Filosofia Ştiinţei (DLMFS)
Simpozionul Corectitudine si fals intellectual: cercetarea stiintifica intre rigoare si nevoia de cunoastere
O ABORDARE DE FIZICA ELEMENTARA……

F=X*Y [F] = [X] * [Y]
Fundamental Physical Constants
Name Symbol Value

Combination
Speed of light c
Planck constant h
Planck constant h
...
Planck hbar
Planck hbar
...
Gravitation constant G
Boltzmann constant k
Coulomb constant
Boltzmann constant k
Molar gas constant R
Bohr radius
Avogadro's number NA 6.0221 x 1023 mol -1
Charge of electron e
Permeability of vacuum
Fine structure constant
Permittivity of vacuum
Coulomb constant
Faraday constant F
Compton wavelength
Mass of electron
Mass of electron
Mass of proton
Mass of proton
Mass of neutron
Mass of neutron
Atomic mass unit
Atomic mass unit
u
u
Bohr magneton
Avogadro's number
Stefan-Boltzmann
constant
Rydberg constant
Bohr magneton
Bohr magneton
Flux quantum
Bohr radius Magnetic flux quantum
Standard atmosphere atm
Wien displacement
b
constant
O perspectivă din interiorul fizicii și energeticii nuleare asupra istoriei acestora, dar mai ales asupra dilemelor lor actuale Dr.ing.Dan Serbanescu 22 Septembrie 2016
CHALLENGES IN PHYSICS (1)
CHALLENGES IN MATHEMATICS – HILBERT PROGRAM (1)
CHALLENGES IN MATHEMATICS – HILBERT PROGRAM (2)
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Safety and risk for energy systems at crossroads Invited speech at

Preprint · November 2022

CARGO - Comparison of approaches to risk governance View project

Special topics on risk View project

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

Safety and risk for energy systems

November 12, 2022

Some previous works

• Cernavoda 24-25 Iunie 2019, DOI: 10.13240/RG.2.2.28998.70401

• Discours de la création de la réalité -Manifest pentru un viitor al civilizației pământești, February

Safety and risk for energy systems at crossroads

A Talk about Nine Windows to look at Energy Systems

A Talk about Nine windows to look at Energy Systems

II. Energy Systems (ES) and civilization

Type Terawatts Level of used energy Comments

Existing Earth level cca

III. ES - status and future

Net capacity in key regions 2013-2040 - IEA outlook 2014

0.0 3.0 4.0

Evolution/Transitions from ES to another nonlinear depend on

IV. ES and CATS model

Transitions at the same energy level

Transition matrix between states as a 3D Hierarchical Phase

GENERAL BASIS FOR THE EVALUATION

GB2.2 Topological approaches for knowledge

Transition matrix and

Transition matrix and

No Short presentation of principle

No Short presentation of principle

Transition from phase to phase and emergence of ES is governed by

V. ES concepts -Complexity, Risk and Safety - COMPLEXITY

Nuclear engineering is a technology so

V. ES concepts -Complexity, Risk and Safety

Analytical evaluations of the space (volumes of acceptable optimal solutions), i.e. a

- Risks defined for

VI. Knowledge, Sciences, Technologies and ES

.Use of ESREDA CUBE to evaluate optimal solutions in safety/reliability

• A specific aspect under review as part of post

EN in era 3.0 si 4.0

VII. Dynamics of ES – on interconnections

ES / CATS model interconnected

VIII.Natural and man made ES- Are they so different?

IX. Knowledge and existence - Discours sur la creation de la realite

 CATS models the OBSERVER, TOO

(VIRTUAL AND/OR REAL..What is real?)

Category I Risks for “standard “ civilization evolution

A future of creating realities

O ABORDARE DE FIZICA ELEMENTARA……

Name Symbol Value

Molar gas constant R

CHALLENGES IN PHYSICS (1)

CHALLENGES IN PHYSICS (2)

CHALLENGES IN PHYSICS (3)

CHALLENGES IN PHYSICS (4)

CHALLENGES IN PHYSICS (5)

CHALLENGES IN PHYSICS (6)

CHALLENGES IN PHYSICS (7)

CHALLENGES IN PHYSICS (8)

CHALLENGES IN PHYSICS (9)

CHALLENGES IN MATHEMATICS – HILBERT PROGRAM (1)

CHALLENGES IN MATHEMATICS – HILBERT PROGRAM (2)

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