Relations between the United States and Venezuela have been strained since the late Hugo Chávez

rose to power two decades ago. They got worse

when the Trump administration recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the South American country’s president instead of Chávez successor
Nicolás Maduro in January 2019.

These tensions could become a full-blown crisis, as has become clear along the Venezuela-Colombia border, where Maduro is blocking the entry of
U.S. humanitarian aid. The United States says it is sending US$20 million in food and medical supplies to alleviate suffering at a time when
Venezuelans are experiencing widespread malnutrition and lack access to health care. Maduro contends that these shipments are a plot to meddle in
his country’s internal affairs – a Trojan horse courtesy of Uncle Sam to undermine Venezuelan democracy.

Although there is no clear evidence of an ulterior motive, history does give Maduro reasons to be skeptical of U.S. intentions. As a political scientist
who studies both the political ramifications of international assistance, and Venezuela’s growing instability, I find that humanitarian aid is rarely just
about saving lives. In Venezuela, I believe that the U.S.-supplied aid may have substantial political consequences.

Demonstrators on the Colombia-Venezuela border in favor of U.S. humanitarian aid and Juan Guaido. AP Photo/Fernando Vergara

A foreign policy tool

USAID, the primary federal aid agency in the U.S., officially operates independently. However, in practice it has worked closely with the State
Department, and the Trump administration discussed making it part of the department when Rex Tillerson served as secretary of state.

The U.S. government generally considers aid and development assistance as part of their broader foreign policy. The State Department officially calls
USAID an “important contributor to the objectives of the National Security Strategy of the United States.” In other words, USAID’s work abroad is at
least partially intended to safeguard American security and promote U.S. interests.

President Donald Trump recently told the UN General Assembly that the U.S. is “only going to give foreign aid to those who respect us and, frankly,
are our friends,” a statement that appeared to be a threat to cut off American assistance to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador unless they curb the
flow of U.S.-bound asylum-seekers and other immigrants.

The U.S. gives those three countries a total of about $450 million a year in foreign aid and the Trump administration has pledged additional funds to
slow the flow of people across the border.

Using aid to advance the national interest is not new.

In 2001, when the war in Afghanistan got underway, the Bush administration used aid to complement the military effort to prevent terrorism. Because
Afghanistan had harbored Osama bin Laden and others tied to the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York, USAID got a broad mandate
and billions of dollars to help win the hearts and minds of Afghans. That policy was essentially a bet that once military intervention had defused the
hostilities, Afghans would have a more favorable view of the U.S. – reducing the risk that terrorists would use Afghanistan as a launching pad.

USAID has also played an explicit role in attempting to win hearts and minds in Iraq in the early 2000s, Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s, and
elsewhere.

Boxes of humanitarian aid from the USAID agency piled up in Colombia, near its border with Venezuela. AP Photo/Fernando Vergara

Aiding intervention
However, it is probably the agency’s history in Cuba that Maduro has on his mind.

In 2014, a year after Maduro succeeded Chávez, the Associated Press reported that USAID covertly funded and ran the Cuban social network
ZunZuneo to help spur dissent in Cuba.

AP reporters identified a series of shell companies the U.S. government used to mask this intervention. They also referenced an internal document
that purportedly outlined how the U.S. intended to use the ZunZuneo project to influence Cuban politics.

No other evidence, however, has surfaced to corroborate this story of alleged subversion. Instead, the U.S. government acknowledged funding the
project. The program’s secrecy came about not for subversion, but to protect “practitioners and members of the public,” White House spokesman Jay
Carney said at that time. To be sure, Cubans who admit to working for, or being sympathetic to the U.S., do run risks in a country that locks up some
of its dissidents.
As Cuba is one of Venezuela’s most important allies, the Venezuelan media followed the ZunZuneo scandal closely. Venezuela denounced the U.S.
for its role with the platform, also known as “Cuban Twitter,” so Maduro is no doubt watching out for what the U.S. may attempt in Venezuela
through its use of foreign aid.

I have seen no clear evidence of U.S. intentions to use humanitarian aid to destabilize Venezuela, but USAID’s reputation and Venezuela’s own
experience with the U.S. gives Maduro good reasons to fear the worst.

Applying leverage
Even if the Trump administration has only the best of intentions, it may not be in Maduro’s interest to let the aid across any of his country’s borders.
Humanitarian aid inevitably creates winners and losers – some will reap the benefits of the aid, while others will not.

In a nation where two or more groups are vying for power, that can change the power dynamics. For Maduro, who is still in power, with the
Venezuelan military behind him for the time being, any changes caused by the distribution of aid can only weaken his position politically. To
Maduro, it is no doubt clear that Guaidó stands to gain most from the humanitarian aid reaching Venezuelans because he can champion the aid as a
success of his shadow government.

Humanitarian aid can give the groups that get access to it and can control its distribution leverage against others. In Syria, food aid got into the hands
of the Islamic State group, which used the aid to strengthen its rank-and-file fighters, and extort money from communities over which it had control.
Food aid also affected the power of different sides in civil wars in Angola, Sudan and Ethiopia, among others.

In my view, the U.S., other nations and aid organizations must take care to avoid letting their assistance get politicized while ensuring that
humanitarian assistance actually reaches and benefits the thousands of Venezuelans who need it. Otherwise, these shipments could further destabilize
the country, making Venezuelans in need of aid in the first place even worse off.

T he Venezuelan opposition leader spearheading efforts to unseat Nicolás Maduro has rejected his rival’s claim that his campaign

has failed but admitted the “trickle” of military defections to his side had so far been insufficient to force change.

In an interview with the Guardian, Juan Guaidó – now recognised as Venezuela’s legitimate interim president by more than 50 governments
– insisted his country’s march into a new political era was unstoppable and Maduro’s “cruel dictatorship” doomed.

He repudiated Maduro’s claim this week that the opposition’s challenge had collapsed, saying it was a mix of propaganda and delusion.

Venezuela at the crossroads: the who, what and why of the crisis
Read more
“I don’t see how [it is over] ... In fact, I’d venture to say change in Venezuela is irreversible ... Never before in Venezuela have we had such
an important opportunity to achieve democratic change,” said the 35-year-old politician who was catapulted to fame after declaring himself
Venezuela’s rightful leader on 23 January.

Of Maduro, he said: “I believe he is utterly detached from reality – constantly contradicting himself in his speeches – and this is a worry
when we are seeking a peaceful transition.

“This is how dictatorships always behave: they deny reality, they deny crises … What we must do is carry on pushing forwards … carry on
piling pressure on a dictatorship which is obviously not going to hand power over [voluntarily].”

The walls of the Caracas headquarters of Guaidó’s centrist party, Voluntad Popular (Popular Will), are decorated with inspirational quotes
from pacifists and freedom fighters including Mother Teresa, Martin Luther King Jr and Nelson Mandela.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win,” says one, beneath a portrait of Mahatma Gandhi.

But critics have questioned the authoritarian inclinations of several of Guaidó’s key allies, particularly in the US and Brazil.

Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has attacked Maduro’s “despicable and murderous” regime but is notorious for celebrating a
dictatorship-era torturer and sugarcoating the sins of the generals who ruled Brazil from 1964 until 1985.

The US president, Donald Trump, is also known for his admiration of autocrats, including Vladimir Putin of Russia, China’s Xi Jinping, and
North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, a Maduro ally whom Trump recently showered with praise.

Guaidó sidestepped criticism of his champions in Washington and Brasilia, claiming he hoped to build a broad international alliance
including left- and rightwingers, such as Ecuador’s Lenín Moreno and Chile’s Sebastián Piñera respectively.
“It’s an unprecedented coalition in support of a just cause,” he said, pointing to recognition from Australia, Germany, Honduras, Israel,
Morocco, Paraguay, Poland, Spain and Japan.

“All those who talk about democracy, freedom and the rule of law, of human rights, of the fight against corruption are, I believe, important
allies.”

Juan Andrés Mejía, a Voluntad Popular politicians and Guaidó ally, said: “Look, we are thankful to all heads of government that have
supported our cause. But the fact that they support us doesn’t mean that we approve of everything they do abroad – or in their own
countries.”

Nearly a month after Guaidó sparked a showdown with Maduro – who inherited Hugo Chávez’s leftist Bolivarian revolution after his death
in 2013 – huge crowds continue to take to the streets in support.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest

Nicolás Maduro. Photograph: Ariana Cubillos/AP
Advertisement

But with Maduro showing no sign of budging, some fear Guaidó’s movement could lose momentum. In 2017, mass anti-Maduro protests
convinced many that Chávez’s heir was finished, only for him to emerge stronger.

Guaidó insisted the 2019 revolt was different, largely because of its international backing and sky-high discontent among citizens and
members of the military suffering the consequences of their country’s economic collapse.

“The fall of the Berlin Wall took a day … It was a barrier and it came down. I believe we are on the verge of something similar,” he said.

Guaidó claimed up to 90% of Venezuela’s population opposed Maduro and 80% of the armed forces wanted political change. But he also
hinted at frustration that an anticipated wave of high-level military defections had not yet materialised.
What next for Venezuela? The four most likely outcomes
Read more
“More than the trickle that we have seen, a declaration en bloc by the armed forces would be ideal,” Guaidó admitted.

With the crisis dragging on longer than many observers had expected, and new US oil sanctions expected to bite soon, some fear food and
fuel shortages could contribute to a security breakdown.

At an event in Caracas on Wednesday, the prominent security expert Javier Ignacio Mayorca warned: “The security situation in Venezuela
could deteriorate tremendously … in the coming days.”

Guaidó admitted there were “X number of scenarios” – including violent ones – for Venezuela’s immediate future, but said he still believed
the most likely prospect was a peaceful transition.

“The only ones talking about war are them,” the opposition leader said of Maduro’s government, which has been holding regular displays of
military might.

Mayorca said it was impossible to rule out an attack on Guaidó. “Venezuela doesn’t have a tradition of the physical elimination of big
political players. But there could always be a first,” he said, evoking the 1948 assassination of the Colombian politician Jorge Eliécer Gaitán
that sparked a decade of bloodshed known as La Violencia.

Guaidó, a father-of-one whose calm and eloquent nature remind some of Barack Obama, admitted he was engaged in a high-stakes gamble.
“Doing politics in Venezuela is a risk and you can pay with your life,” he said, pointing to more than 400 political prisoners and 1,000
exiles.

This man plotted Guaidó's rise – and still dreams of leading Venezuela
Read more
Might jail or exile be his future if Venezuela’s military refuse to abandon Maduro?

Advertisement
“Or perhaps even death,” Guaidó replied. “As we say in Venezuela: ‘May God have mercy upon us’,” he added, knocking twice on the table
in front of him. “Obviously, there is a latent risk.”

With that, Guaidó strode out of the 17th floor office down a corridor whose

T he Venezuelan opposition leader spearheading efforts to unseat Nicolás

Maduro has rejected his rival’s claim that his campaign has failed but admitted the
“trickle” of military defections to his side had so far been insufficient to force change.

In an interview with the Guardian, Juan Guaidó – now recognised as Venezuela’s

legitimate interim president by more than 50 governments – insisted his country’s march
into a new political era was unstoppable and Maduro’s “cruel dictatorship” doomed.

He repudiated Maduro’s claim this week that the opposition’s challenge had collapsed,
saying it was a mix of propaganda and delusion.

Venezuela at the crossroads: the who, what and why of the crisis
Read more
“I don’t see how [it is over] ... In fact, I’d venture to say change in Venezuela is
irreversible ... Never before in Venezuela have we had such an important opportunity to
achieve democratic change,” said the 35-year-old politician who was catapulted to fame
after declaring himself Venezuela’s rightful leader on 23 January.

Of Maduro, he said: “I believe he is utterly detached from reality – constantly

contradicting himself in his speeches – and this is a worry when we are seeking a
peaceful transition.

“This is how dictatorships always behave: they deny reality, they deny crises … What we
must do is carry on pushing forwards … carry on piling pressure on a dictatorship which
is obviously not going to hand power over [voluntarily].”

The walls of the Caracas headquarters of Guaidó’s centrist party, Voluntad Popular
(Popular Will), are decorated with inspirational quotes from pacifists and freedom
fighters including Mother Teresa, Martin Luther King Jr and Nelson Mandela.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win,” says
one, beneath a portrait of Mahatma Gandhi.

But critics have questioned the authoritarian inclinations of several of Guaidó’s key allies,
particularly in the US and Brazil.

Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has attacked Maduro’s “despicable and
murderous” regime but is notorious for celebrating a dictatorship-era torturer and
sugarcoating the sins of the generals who ruled Brazil from 1964 until 1985.
The US president, Donald Trump, is also known for his admiration of autocrats, including
Vladimir Putin of Russia, China’s Xi Jinping, and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, a Maduro
ally whom Trump recently showered with praise.

Guaidó sidestepped criticism of his champions in Washington and Brasilia, claiming he

hoped to build a broad international alliance including left- and rightwingers, such as
Ecuador’s Lenín Moreno and Chile’s Sebastián Piñera respectively.

“It’s an unprecedented coalition in support of a just cause,” he said, pointing to

recognition from Australia, Germany, Honduras, Israel, Morocco, Paraguay, Poland,
Spain and Japan.

“All those who talk about democracy, freedom and the rule of law, of human rights, of
the fight against corruption are, I believe, important allies.”

Juan Andrés Mejía, a Voluntad Popular politicians and Guaidó ally, said: “Look, we are
thankful to all heads of government that have supported our cause. But the fact that they
support us doesn’t mean that we approve of everything they do abroad – or in their own
countries.”

Nearly a month after Guaidó sparked a showdown with Maduro – who inherited Hugo
Chávez’s leftist Bolivarian revolution after his death in 2013 – huge crowds continue to
take to the streets in support.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest

Nicolás Maduro. Photograph: Ariana Cubillos/AP
Advertisement
But with Maduro showing no sign of budging, some fear Guaidó’s movement could lose
momentum. In 2017, mass anti-Maduro protests convinced many that Chávez’s heir was
finished, only for him to emerge stronger.

Guaidó insisted the 2019 revolt was different, largely because of its international backing
and sky-high discontent among citizens and members of the military suffering the
consequences of their country’s economic collapse.

“The fall of the Berlin Wall took a day … It was a barrier and it came down. I believe we
are on the verge of something similar,” he said.

Guaidó claimed up to 90% of Venezuela’s population opposed Maduro and 80% of the
armed forces wanted political change. But he also hinted at frustration that an anticipated
wave of high-level military defections had not yet materialised.

What next for Venezuela? The four most likely outcomes

Read more
“More than the trickle that we have seen, a declaration en bloc by the armed forces would
be ideal,” Guaidó admitted.

With the crisis dragging on longer than many observers had expected, and new US oil
sanctions expected to bite soon, some fear food and fuel shortages could contribute to a
security breakdown.

At an event in Caracas on Wednesday, the prominent security expert Javier Ignacio

Mayorca warned: “The security situation in Venezuela could deteriorate tremendously …
in the coming days.”

Guaidó admitted there were “X number of scenarios” – including violent ones – for
Venezuela’s immediate future, but said he still believed the most likely prospect was a
peaceful transition.

“The only ones talking about war are them,” the opposition leader said of Maduro’s
government, which has been holding regular displays of military might.
Mayorca said it was impossible to rule out an attack on Guaidó. “Venezuela doesn’t have
a tradition of the physical elimination of big political players. But there could always be a
first,” he said, evoking the 1948 assassination of the Colombian politician Jorge Eliécer
Gaitán that sparked a decade of bloodshed known as La Violencia.

Guaidó, a father-of-one whose calm and eloquent nature remind some of Barack Obama,
admitted he was engaged in a high-stakes gamble. “Doing politics in Venezuela is a risk
and you can pay with your life,” he said, pointing to more than 400 political prisoners and
1,000 exiles.

This man plotted Guaidó's rise – and still dreams of leading Venezuela
Read more
Might jail or exile be his future if Venezuela’s military refuse to abandon Maduro?

Advertisement

“Or perhaps even death,” Guaidó replied. “As we say in Venezuela: ‘May God have
mercy upon us’,” he added, knocking twice on the table in front of him. “Obviously, there
is a latent risk.”

With that, Guaidó strode out of the 17th floor office down a corridor whose

T he Venezuelan opposition leader spearheading efforts to unseat Nicolás

Maduro has rejected his rival’s claim that his campaign has failed but admitted the
“trickle” of military defections to his side had so far been insufficient to force change.

In an interview with the Guardian, Juan Guaidó – now recognised as Venezuela’s

legitimate interim president by more than 50 governments – insisted his country’s march
into a new political era was unstoppable and Maduro’s “cruel dictatorship” doomed.
He repudiated Maduro’s claim this week that the opposition’s challenge had collapsed,
saying it was a mix of propaganda and delusion.

Venezuela at the crossroads: the who, what and why of the crisis
Read more
“I don’t see how [it is over] ... In fact, I’d venture to say change in Venezuela is
irreversible ... Never before in Venezuela have we had such an important opportunity to
achieve democratic change,” said the 35-year-old politician who was catapulted to fame
after declaring himself Venezuela’s rightful leader on 23 January.

Of Maduro, he said: “I believe he is utterly detached from reality – constantly

contradicting himself in his speeches – and this is a worry when we are seeking a
peaceful transition.

“This is how dictatorships always behave: they deny reality, they deny crises … What we
must do is carry on pushing forwards … carry on piling pressure on a dictatorship which
is obviously not going to hand power over [voluntarily].”

The walls of the Caracas headquarters of Guaidó’s centrist party, Voluntad Popular
(Popular Will), are decorated with inspirational quotes from pacifists and freedom
fighters including Mother Teresa, Martin Luther King Jr and Nelson Mandela.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win,” says
one, beneath a portrait of Mahatma Gandhi.

But critics have questioned the authoritarian inclinations of several of Guaidó’s key allies,
particularly in the US and Brazil.

Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has attacked Maduro’s “despicable and
murderous” regime but is notorious for celebrating a dictatorship-era torturer and
sugarcoating the sins of the generals who ruled Brazil from 1964 until 1985.

The US president, Donald Trump, is also known for his admiration of autocrats, including
Vladimir Putin of Russia, China’s Xi Jinping, and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, a Maduro
ally whom Trump recently showered with praise.

Guaidó sidestepped criticism of his champions in Washington and Brasilia, claiming he

hoped to build a broad international alliance including left- and rightwingers, such as
Ecuador’s Lenín Moreno and Chile’s Sebastián Piñera respectively.

“It’s an unprecedented coalition in support of a just cause,” he said, pointing to

recognition from Australia, Germany, Honduras, Israel, Morocco, Paraguay, Poland,
Spain and Japan.

“All those who talk about democracy, freedom and the rule of law, of human rights, of
the fight against corruption are, I believe, important allies.”

Juan Andrés Mejía, a Voluntad Popular politicians and Guaidó ally, said: “Look, we are
thankful to all heads of government that have supported our cause. But the fact that they
support us doesn’t mean that we approve of everything they do abroad – or in their own
countries.”

Nearly a month after Guaidó sparked a showdown with Maduro – who inherited Hugo
Chávez’s leftist Bolivarian revolution after his death in 2013 – huge crowds continue to
take to the streets in support.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest

Nicolás Maduro. Photograph: Ariana Cubillos/AP
Advertisement

But with Maduro showing no sign of budging, some fear Guaidó’s movement could lose
momentum. In 2017, mass anti-Maduro protests convinced many that Chávez’s heir was
finished, only for him to emerge stronger.

Guaidó insisted the 2019 revolt was different, largely because of its international backing
and sky-high discontent among citizens and members of the military suffering the
consequences of their country’s economic collapse.

“The fall of the Berlin Wall took a day … It was a barrier and it came down. I believe we
are on the verge of something similar,” he said.

Guaidó claimed up to 90% of Venezuela’s population opposed Maduro and 80% of the
armed forces wanted political change. But he also hinted at frustration that an anticipated
wave of high-level military defections had not yet materialised.
What next for Venezuela? The four most likely outcomes
Read more
“More than the trickle that we have seen, a declaration en bloc by the armed forces would
be ideal,” Guaidó admitted.

With the crisis dragging on longer than many observers had expected, and new US oil
sanctions expected to bite soon, some fear food and fuel shortages could contribute to a
security breakdown.

At an event in Caracas on Wednesday, the prominent security expert Javier Ignacio

Mayorca warned: “The security situation in Venezuela could deteriorate tremendously …
in the coming days.”

Guaidó admitted there were “X number of scenarios” – including violent ones – for
Venezuela’s immediate future, but said he still believed the most likely prospect was a
peaceful transition.

“The only ones talking about war are them,” the opposition leader said of Maduro’s
government, which has been holding regular displays of military might.

Mayorca said it was impossible to rule out an attack on Guaidó. “Venezuela doesn’t have
a tradition of the physical elimination of big political players. But there could always be a
first,” he said, evoking the 1948 assassination of the Colombian politician Jorge Eliécer
Gaitán that sparked a decade of bloodshed known as La Violencia.

Guaidó, a father-of-one whose calm and eloquent nature remind some of Barack Obama,
admitted he was engaged in a high-stakes gamble. “Doing politics in Venezuela is a risk
and you can pay with your life,” he said, pointing to more than 400 political prisoners and
1,000 exiles.

This man plotted Guaidó's rise – and still dreams of leading Venezuela
Read more
Might jail or exile be his future if Venezuela’s military refuse to abandon Maduro?
Advertisement

“Or perhaps even death,” Guaidó replied. “As we say in Venezuela: ‘May God have
mercy upon us’,” he added, knocking twice on the table in front of him. “Obviously, there
is a latent risk.”

With that, Guaidó strode out of the 17th floor office down a corridor whose

T he Venezuelan opposition leader spearheading efforts to unseat Nicolás

Maduro has rejected his rival’s claim that his campaign has failed but admitted the
“trickle” of military defections to his side had so far been insufficient to force change.

In an interview with the Guardian, Juan Guaidó – now recognised as Venezuela’s

legitimate interim president by more than 50 governments – insisted his country’s march
into a new political era was unstoppable and Maduro’s “cruel dictatorship” doomed.

He repudiated Maduro’s claim this week that the opposition’s challenge had collapsed,
saying it was a mix of propaganda and delusion.

Venezuela at the crossroads: the who, what and why of the crisis
Read more
“I don’t see how [it is over] ... In fact, I’d venture to say change in Venezuela is
irreversible ... Never before in Venezuela have we had such an important opportunity to
achieve democratic change,” said the 35-year-old politician who was catapulted to fame
after declaring himself Venezuela’s rightful leader on 23 January.

Of Maduro, he said: “I believe he is utterly detached from reality – constantly

contradicting himself in his speeches – and this is a worry when we are seeking a
peaceful transition.

“This is how dictatorships always behave: they deny reality, they deny crises … What we
must do is carry on pushing forwards … carry on piling pressure on a dictatorship which
is obviously not going to hand power over [voluntarily].”

The walls of the Caracas headquarters of Guaidó’s centrist party, Voluntad Popular
(Popular Will), are decorated with inspirational quotes from pacifists and freedom
fighters including Mother Teresa, Martin Luther King Jr and Nelson Mandela.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win,” says
one, beneath a portrait of Mahatma Gandhi.

But critics have questioned the authoritarian inclinations of several of Guaidó’s key allies,
particularly in the US and Brazil.
Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has attacked Maduro’s “despicable and
murderous” regime but is notorious for celebrating a dictatorship-era torturer and
sugarcoating the sins of the generals who ruled Brazil from 1964 until 1985.

The US president, Donald Trump, is also known for his admiration of autocrats, including
Vladimir Putin of Russia, China’s Xi Jinping, and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, a Maduro
ally whom Trump recently showered with praise.

Guaidó sidestepped criticism of his champions in Washington and Brasilia, claiming he

hoped to build a broad international alliance including left- and rightwingers, such as
Ecuador’s Lenín Moreno and Chile’s Sebastián Piñera respectively.

“It’s an unprecedented coalition in support of a just cause,” he said, pointing to

recognition from Australia, Germany, Honduras, Israel, Morocco, Paraguay, Poland,
Spain and Japan.

“All those who talk about democracy, freedom and the rule of law, of human rights, of
the fight against corruption are, I believe, important allies.”

Juan Andrés Mejía, a Voluntad Popular politicians and Guaidó ally, said: “Look, we are
thankful to all heads of government that have supported our cause. But the fact that they
support us doesn’t mean that we approve of everything they do abroad – or in their own
countries.”

Nearly a month after Guaidó sparked a showdown with Maduro – who inherited Hugo
Chávez’s leftist Bolivarian revolution after his death in 2013 – huge crowds continue to
take to the streets in support.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest

Nicolás Maduro. Photograph: Ariana Cubillos/AP
Advertisement

But with Maduro showing no sign of budging, some fear Guaidó’s movement could lose
momentum. In 2017, mass anti-Maduro protests convinced many that Chávez’s heir was
finished, only for him to emerge stronger.

Guaidó insisted the 2019 revolt was different, largely because of its international backing
and sky-high discontent among citizens and members of the military suffering the
consequences of their country’s economic collapse.

“The fall of the Berlin Wall took a day … It was a barrier and it came down. I believe we
are on the verge of something similar,” he said.

Guaidó claimed up to 90% of Venezuela’s population opposed Maduro and 80% of the
armed forces wanted political change. But he also hinted at frustration that an anticipated
wave of high-level military defections had not yet materialised.
What next for Venezuela? The four most likely outcomes
Read more
“More than the trickle that we have seen, a declaration en bloc by the armed forces would
be ideal,” Guaidó admitted.

With the crisis dragging on longer than many observers had expected, and new US oil
sanctions expected to bite soon, some fear food and fuel shortages could contribute to a
security breakdown.

At an event in Caracas on Wednesday, the prominent security expert Javier Ignacio

Mayorca warned: “The security situation in Venezuela could deteriorate tremendously …
in the coming days.”

Guaidó admitted there were “X number of scenarios” – including violent ones – for
Venezuela’s immediate future, but said he still believed the most likely prospect was a
peaceful transition.

“The only ones talking about war are them,” the opposition leader said of Maduro’s
government, which has been holding regular displays of military might.

Mayorca said it was impossible to rule out an attack on Guaidó. “Venezuela doesn’t have
a tradition of the physical elimination of big political players. But there could always be a
first,” he said, evoking the 1948 assassination of the Colombian politician Jorge Eliécer
Gaitán that sparked a decade of bloodshed known as La Violencia.

Guaidó, a father-of-one whose calm and eloquent nature remind some of Barack Obama,
admitted he was engaged in a high-stakes gamble. “Doing politics in Venezuela is a risk
and you can pay with your life,” he said, pointing to more than 400 political prisoners and
1,000 exiles.

This man plotted Guaidó's rise – and still dreams of leading Venezuela
Read more
Might jail or exile be his future if Venezuela’s military refuse to abandon Maduro?

Advertisement

“Or perhaps even death,” Guaidó replied. “As we say in Venezuela: ‘May God have
mercy upon us’,” he added, knocking twice on the table in front of him. “Obviously, there
is a latent risk.”

With that, Guaidó strode out of the 17th floor office down a corridor whose walls are inscribed
with handwritten tributes to his mentor, Leopoldo López, who was jailed in 2014 for his role in the struggle against Maduro.
Important points

Some senior officers have gotten rich off shady deals, including drug trafficking, illegal gold mining, currency scams and
contraband smuggling, says R. Evan Ellis, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College who studies Latin American
militaries.

U.S. court indictments and targeted sanctions have named several Venezuelans who have served in the South American
country's security forces.
Ellis contends that the fear of arrest or extradition under a Guaidó-led government has persuaded many officers to throw in
their lot with Maduro. What's more, Cuban agents work closely with top Venezuelan officials to snuff out coups before they can
be launched.

"My sense is that everyone is paralyzed and thinking that it's safer to do nothing," Ellis tells NPR. "Officers have been
thoroughly compromised and, with the Cubans watching, there is not fertile soil for a coup to gain critical momentum."

Bruce Bagley, a professor of international studies at the University of Miami, predicts that "at least through 2019 we are going
to see Maduro remain in power backed by the military, which is the crucial element here."

The military has often served as Venezuela's ultimate power broker.

In recent decades, it has been involved in coups that have both crushed and restored democratic rule. In fact, Guaidó's
swearing-in ceremony took place Wednesday to mark the anniversary of a civic-military uprising in 1958 that deposed dictator
Gen. Marcos Pérez Jiménez.
During the Cold War, the Venezuelan military was a strong U.S. ally and a major client for arms and aircraft, including F-16
fighter jets. But former President Hugo Chávez, a former army paratrooper who first came to prominence after leading a failed
coup attempt, began revamping the armed forces after ushering in Venezuela's socialist revolution in 1999.
Chávez broke with the Pentagon and brought in Cuban military advisers. He based promotions on loyalty to the revolution. And
he gave vast new powers to his favorite officers, a trend that has accelerated under Maduro as he tries to keep the military on
board amid the deepening crisis.

Addressing troops and officers in a speech on Wednesday, Maduro called for "maximum loyalty."

Still, there are signs of growing discontent.

Thousands of troops, who earn the equivalent of just a few dollars per month, have deserted, and scores of officers have been
arrested on conspiracy charges. On Monday, about two dozen National Guard members raided an arms depot in Caracas and
called for a popular uprising before they were arrested.

"Most of these plots have been small because they are easier to hide" from counterintelligence agents, said Harold Trinkunas, a
Venezuela expert at Stanford University.

Rather than pushing for a traditional coup, he adds, the opposition is trying to convince officers they should simply keep their
troops in the barracks and allow anti-government demonstrations to build until Maduro is forced out.

To convince them, Guaidó is promising to pardon officers who abandon Maduro and back the opposition. Ironically, Ellis says
that amnesty could produce a scenario in which corrupt officers who switch sides and help ease out Maduro get to keep their
stolen money while portraying themselves as democratic heroes.

But thus far, there have been no reports of any takers. As the impasse drags on, some fear that Maduro could resort to the
repressive tactics that he has successfully used before: a military crackdown on protesters and the arrest of opposition leaders.

In an analysis published Thursday, the International Crisis Group warned: "If Maduro retains the armed forces' support, he will
almost certainly seek to stay in power and violently crush those who are challenging him."