Plastic Pipes Sector

Equity Research INDIA
December 2, 2022
BSE Sensex: 63284
Plastic pipes
ICICI Securities Limited
is the author and
distributor of this report Worst is behind; better times ahead
We expect plastic pipe companies to witness volume pick-up from H2FY23E onward
due to significant correction in base raw material prices (PVC resin) by ~43% FY23-TD
Sector Update (now closer to pre pandemic levels and 10-year average) resulting in increased
demand from two of the major user-sectors: agriculture and plumbing. Agriculture
demand was subdued for the past 3 years and is expected to show robust growth in
Recommendations the upcoming busy season (Feb-May’23) due to the price-elastic nature of rural
demand. Plumbing demand will likely remain strong driven by uptick in the housing
Astral (BUY) market. Operating profit too should improve sequentially for the covered companies
Prince Pipes and Fittings (vs H1FY23) as inventory losses subside (partially in Q3 and more so in Q4) and
(BUY) volumes increase (partly aided by seasonality as well as restocking by dealers as PVC
prices stabilise). We expect pipe companies to witness volume growth of 8.7%-19.9%
Finolex Industries (BUY)
YoY in H2FY23E and register a CAGR of 11.7%-16.5% over FY22-FY25E. Upgrade
Supreme Industries ASTRAL to BUY with a rolled-over Dec’23 target price of Rs2,295. However, we
(HOLD) downgrade Supreme Industries (SI) to HOLD (from Buy) with a rolled over Dec’23
target price of Rs2,317 (earlier Rs2,152) post the steep rally over the past 3 months.
Maintain BUY on Prince Pipes and Finolex Industries with a rolled over Dec’23 target
price of Rs691 and Rs186 respectively.
 Volumes in H2FY23E to improve: We expect pipe segment volumes in H2FY23E for
ASTRA / FNXP / PRINCPIP / SI to grow by 16.6% / 8.7% / 16.3% / 19.9% YoY due to: a)
rebound in agriculture demand, b) healthy demand momentum from housing, and c)
channel restocking. Agriculture demand has been tepid for the past 3 years due to
elevated PVC prices, which have now declined ~43% in FY23-TD and are close to their
10-year average. As agriculture market is price-elastic, demand is likely to increase due
to recent price corrections. FNXP has the highest exposure to agri segment (~60% of
revenues), PRINCPIP (30-35%), SI (25-30%) and ASTRA (<10%). The sustained decline
in PVC prices in H1FY23 had also led to channel destocking and lower levels of
inventory. With PVC prices now expected to stabilise, channel inventory too should
normalise going ahead. Our recent dealer interactions indicate that demand from the
housing market remains healthy while traction is increasing in agriculture segment.
 Profitability to be better in H2FY23: PVC prices continue to decline in Q3FY23-TD
(down ~10%), but at a slower pace compared to H1FY23 (down ~36%). We expect some
inventory losses in Q3, but not as severe as in H1FY23 (ASTRA, SI and PRINCPIP
reported inventory losses of ~Rs700mn, ~Rs2.5bn and ~Rs1.0bn-1.2bn respectively in
H1FY23). With domestic PVC prices likely to stabilise in Q3FY23 as it now trades closer
to pre-pandemic levels and also near their 10-year average, profitability is likely to
improve sequentially in Q3 and normalise by Q4FY23 (seasonally the peak demand
quarter). In H2FY23E, plastic pipe companies ASTRA / FNXP / PRINCPIP / SI are
expected to report improved H2FY23E EBIT/kg of Rs28.2 / Rs8 / Rs13.8 / Rs22.2 (vs
H1FY23 EBIT/kg of Rs23.5 / Rs(-0.4) / Rs(-1.2) / Rs11.3), driven by demand tailwinds
from housing/agri segments and operating leverage. We have modeled normalised
EBIT/kg for all covered companies for FY24E/FY25E as PVC prices have corrected
significantly and risk of material inventory losses are remote.
 Upgrade Astral to BUY, downgrade SI to HOLD: We upgrade Astral to BUY with a
rolled-over Dec’23 target price of Rs2,295. We like Astral due to its significant presence
in the plumbing market, which is being boosted by demand tailwinds on account of pick-
up in housing market. Also, it will be a beneficiary of improved margins in the adhesive
segment due to falling raw material prices (average VAM price in Q3-TD has corrected
by ~44% vs average price in H1FY23 and now trades closer to its 10-year average). We
Research Analysts: continue to like SI for its leadership in the pipe segment, but have downgraded it to
Arun Baid HOLD (from Buy) post a ~23% rally in the stock price with a rolled over Dec’23 target
arun.baid@icicisecurities.com price of Rs2,317. We cut SI’s FY23E PAT estimates by ~12% (FY24E unchanged) to
+91 22 6807 7235 account for lower profitability due to inventory loss in H1FY23. Maintain BUY on
Sohil Kaura PRINCPIP and FNXP with a rolled over Dec’23 target price of Rs691 and Rs186
sohil.kaura@icicisecurities.com respectively.
+91 22 6807 7416
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Building Material sector, December 2, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 1: Astral pipe volumes to grow 16.6% YoY in Chart 2: Astral’s pipe EBITDA/kg to improve
H2FY23E sequentially to Rs35.7/kg in H2FY23E
Volume (MT) YoY (%) ASTRA EBITDA/kg
1,20,000 15.3% 16.6% 20% 50
15% 45
1,00,000
10% 40
3.8%
5% 35
80,000
0% 30
(Rs/kg)
(MT)
60,000 -5% 25
-10% 20
40,000 15
-15%
-20% 10
82,471
77,331
96,169
20,000
-25% 5
45.4 32.5 35.7
0 -30% 0
H2FY22 H1FY23 H2FY23E H2FY22 H1FY23 H2FY23E
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Chart 3: Astral pipe volume CAGR at 16% for Chart 4: Astral pipe EBITDA/kg to normalise going
FY22-FY25E forward
Volum e (MT) Plum bing EBITDA/kg
2,50,000 45
40
2,00,000 35
30
1,50,000
25
(Rs/kg)
(MT)
20
1,00,000
15
1,36,593
1,49,569
1,73,500
2,02,995
2,33,444
50,000 10
5
39.1 42.5 33.8 35.1 36.2
0 0
FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Chart 5: Astral consolidated EBITDA to improve Chart 6: Astral consolidated APAT to grow over
over FY22-FY25E FY22-FY25E
Consolidated EBITDA Consolidated APAT
14,000 9,000
8,000
12,000
7,000
10,000
6,000
8,000
(Rs mn)
(Rs mn)
5,000
6,000 4,000
3,000
4,000
2,000
10,221
12,091
2,000
6,446
7,554
8,075
3,985
4,774
5,116
6,781
8,338
1,000
0 0
2
Chart 7: FNXP pipe volumes to grow 8.7% YoY in Chart 8: FNXP EBIT/kg to improve sequentially to
H2FY23E Rs8/kg in H2FY23E
Volume (MT) YoY (%) FNXP EBIT/kg
1,60,000 17.9% 14
20%
8.7% 8.7%
1,40,000 12
10%
1,20,000 0% 10
1,00,000 -10% 8
(Rs/kg)
-20%
(MT)
80,000 6
-30%
60,000 4
-40%
40,000 2
1,25,623
1,31,179
1,36,512
-50% 11.9 8.0
20,000 0
-60%
-0.4
0 -70% -2
Chart 9: FNXP pipe volume CAGR at 11.7% for Chart 10: FNXP pipe EBIT/kg to improve over
FY22-FY25E FY23E-FY25E
Volum e (MT) Plastic Pipes EBIT/kg
3,50,000 14
3,00,000 12
2,50,000 10
2,00,000 8
(Rs/kg)
(MT)
1,50,000 6
1,00,000 4
2,12,059
2,36,895
2,67,691
2,99,814
3,29,796
50,000 2
11.8 10.6 4.0 9.5 9.5
0 0
Chart 11: FNXP consolidated EBITDA to improve Chart 12: FNXP consolidated APAT to rebound
over FY23E-FY25E over FY23E-FY25E
12,000 9,000
8,000
10,000
7,000
8,000 6,000
(Rs mn)
(Rs mn)
5,000
6,000
4,000
4,000 3,000
2,000
10,276
2,000
9,899
3,173
7,341
8,032
7,276
8,054
2,633
5,708
6,171
1,000
0 0
3
Chart 13: SI pipe volumes to grow 19.9% YoY in Chart 14: SI EBIT/kg to improve sequentially to
H2FY23E Rs22.2/kg in H2FY23E
Volume (MT) YoY (%) SI EBIT/kg
2,00,000 40% 35
31.6%
1,80,000
30% 30
1,60,000 19.9%
1,40,000 20% 25
1,20,000 10% 20
(Rs/kg)
0.6%
(MT)
1,00,000
0% 15
80,000
60,000 -10% 10
1,53,704
1,58,644
1,84,225
40,000
-20% 5
20,000 29.2 11.3 22.2
0 -30% 0
Chart 15: SI plastic pipe volume CAGR at 16.5% Chart 16: SI pipe EBIT/kg to normalise over FY23E-
for FY22-FY25E FY25E
5,00,000 35
4,50,000
30
4,00,000
3,50,000 25
3,00,000 20
(Rs/kg)
(MT)
2,50,000
2,00,000 15
1,50,000 10
2,94,357
2,74,295
3,42,869
3,94,299
4,33,729
1,00,000
5
50,000
27.9 28.6 17.1 20.1 20.1
0 0
Chart 17: SI consolidated EBITDA to grow over Chart 18: SI consolidated APAT to improve over
FY22-FY25E FY22-FY25E
18,000 12,000
16,000
10,000
14,000
12,000 8,000
(Rs mn)
(Rs mn)
10,000
6,000
8,000
6,000 4,000
4,000
12,785
12,478
11,207
13,957
15,383
10,429
11,324
2,000
9,634
9,595
8,614
2,000
0 0
4
Chart 19: PRINCPIP pipe volume to grow 16.3% Chart 20: PRINCPIP EBIT/kg to improve
YoY in H2FY23E sequentially to Rs13.8/kg in H2FY23E
Volume (MT) YoY (%) PRINCPIP EBIT/kg
1,00,000 16.3% 20% 30
13.7%
90,000 15%
25
80,000 10%
70,000 5% 20
-0.8%
60,000 0% 15
(Rs/kg)
(MT)
50,000 -5%
10
40,000 -10%
30,000 -15% 5
20,000 -20% 27.6 13.8
77,722
69,707
90,364
0
10,000 -25% -1.2
0 -30% -5
Chart 21: PRINCPIP pipe volume CAGR at 13.7% Chart 22: PRINCPIP pipe EBIT/kg to rebound over
for FY22-FY25E FY23E-FY25E
2,50,000 30
25
2,00,000
20
1,50,000
(Rs/kg)
(MT)
15
1,00,000
10
1,38,289
1,39,034
1,60,071
1,81,466
2,04,335
50,000
5
22.3 25.1 7.3 15.8 16.5
0 0
Chart 23: PRINCPIP consolidated EBITDA to Chart 24: PRINCPIP consolidated APAT to improve
rebound over FY23E-FY25E over FY23E-FY25E
5,000 3,000
4,500
2,500
4,000
3,500
2,000
3,000
(Rs mn)
(Rs mn)
2,500 1,500
2,000
1,000
1,500
1,000
500
3,678
4,188
1,975
3,743
4,314
2,264
2,514
2,223
2,655
500
861
0 0
5
Chart 25: Revenue mix for plastic pipe companies
Agri Non-Agri
100%
90%
80% ~40%
70%
65-70% 70-75%
60%
> 90%
50%
40%
30% ~60%
20%
30-35% 25-30%
10%
< 10%
0%
FNXP PRINCPIP SI ASTRA
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Chart 26: Domestic PVC prices are close to their 10-year average
Domestic PVC Price (Rs/kg) 10-yr avg
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-13
Jun-16
Dec-12
Dec-15
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-20
Chart 27: South-East Asia PVC prices are below their 10-year average
SE Asia PVC Price (US$/ton) 10-yr avg
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-19
May-20
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-21
May-22
Nov-16
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
6
Chart 28: VAM prices closer to their 10-year average
VAM (US$/MT) 10-yr avg.
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-22
May-13
May-17
May-21
Nov-12
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-22
Nov-13
Nov-17
Nov-21
Table 1: Supreme Industries – change in estimates

Now Earlier Change (%)
(Rs mn)
FY23E FY24E FY23E FY24E FY23E FY24E
Revenue 88,333 97,371 84,654 90,342 4.3% 7.8%
EBIDTA 11,207 13,964 12,881 13,969 -13.0% 0.0%
PAT 8,614 10,461 9,795 10,388 -12.1% 0.7%
Table 2: Comparison table

New Target New Old Target Old Comments
Company Name
Price (Rs) Rating Price (Rs) Rating
Astral 2295 BUY 2182 ADD Rolled-over Dec'23 TP with an unchanged of 58x FY24E P/E
Prince Pipes and Fittings 691 BUY 662 BUY Rolled-over Dec'23 TP with an unchanged of 30x FY24E P/E
Finolex Industries 186 BUY 181 BUY Rolled-over Dec'23 SoTP-based TP
Supreme Industries 2317 HOLD 2152 BUY Rolled-over Dec'23 SoTP-based TP
Price charts
Astral Prince Pipes and Fittings Finolex Industries Supreme Industries
250 250
3000 3000
2500 200 200 2500
2000 150 150 2000
1500 1500
(Rs.)
100 100
(Rs.)
(Rs.)
(Rs.)
1000 1000
50 50
500 500
0 0 0 0
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Source: Bloomberg
7
Financial summary – Supreme Industries

Table 3: Profit & loss statement Table 6: Cashflow statement
(Rs mn, year ending December 31) (Rs mn, year ending December 31)
Income Statement FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E Cash Flow FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Operating Income (Sales) 77,645 88,333 97,371 1,07,108 Operating Cashflow 3,652 10,333 10,910 10,152
Operating Expenses 65,167 77,127 83,407 91,668 Working Capital Changes -6,266 1,225 -399 -2,415
EBITDA 12,478 11,207 13,964 15,440 Capex -3,757 -7,000 -4,500 -4,500
% margins 16.1 12.7 14.3 14.4 Free Cashflow -105 3,333 6,410 5,652
Depreciation & Amortisation 2,295 2,572 2,957 3,258 Cashflow from Investing
Interest Cost 52 60 50 40 Activities -2,766 -7,800 -6,300 -6,700
Other Income 19 211 269 371 Issue of Share Capital - - - -
Recurring PBT 10,151 8,786 11,226 12,512 Inc (Dec) in Borrowings -10 300 -100 -
Less: Taxes 2,633 2,249 2,874 3,203 Dividend paid -2,922 -3,446 -4,184 -4,580
Less: Minority Chg. In Cash & Cash
-2,167 -2,077 -2,109 -2,140
Interest/Extraordinary Items equivalents -36 1,465 2,434 1,013
Net Income (Reported) 9,684 8,614 10,461 11,449 Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Net Income (Adjusted) 9,595 8,614 10,461 11,449
Table 7: Key ratios
Table 4: Balance sheet (Year ending December 31)
Ratios FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
(Rs mn, year ending December 31) Per Share Data (Rs)
Balance Sheet FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E EPS (Diluted Adjusted) 75.5 67.8 82.4 90.1
Assets CEPS (Cash EPS) 93.6 88.1 105.6 115.8
Total Current Assets 25,969 27,402 31,305 36,451 Dividend per share (DPS) 24.0 27.1 32.9 36.1
of which cash & cash eqv. 1,003 2,468 4,902 5,914 Book Value per share (BV) 302.6 343.3 392.7 446.8
Total Current Liabilities 10,154 11,347 12,317 13,535
Net Current Assets 15,815 16,055 18,989 22,916 Growth Ratios (%)
Investments 9,020 9,820 11,620 13,820 Operating Income 22.3 13.8 10.2 10.0
Net Fixed Assets 19,231 23,659 25,202 26,444 EBITDA (2.4) (10.2) 24.6 10.6
Total Assets 49,959 56,620 63,766 71,854 Adjusted Net Income (0.4) (10.2) 21.4 9.4
EPS (Diluted Adjusted) (0.4) (10.2) 21.4 9.4
Liabilities
Borrowings - 300 200 200 Valuation Ratios (x)
Total Liabilities 11,515 13,008 13,878 15,096 P/E 32.3 36.0 29.6 27.1
Equity Share Capital 254 254 254 254 P/CEPS 26.1 27.7 23.1 21.1
Face Value per share (Rs) 2 2 2 2 P/BV 8.1 7.1 6.2 5.5
Reserves & Surplus 38,190 43,358 49,634 56,504 EV / EBITDA 24.4 27.1 21.5 19.4
Net Worth 38,444 43,612 49,888 56,758 EV / Operating Income 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.8
Minority Interest - - - -
Total Liabilities & Operating Ratios
Shareholders' Equity 49,959 56,620 63,766 71,854 Other Income / PBT (%) 0.2 2.4 2.4 3.0
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Effective Tax Rate (%) 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.6
NWC / Total Assets (%) 21.1 16.5 15.3 16.9
Table 5: Quarterly trend Net D/E Ratio (x) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
(Rs mn, year ending December 31) Return/Profitability Ratios (%)

Quarterly Trend Dec'21 Mar'22 Jun'22 Sept'22 Adjusted Net Income Margins 12.4 9.8 10.7 10.7
Net sales 19,451 25,571 22,060 20,866 RoCE 21.0 15.3 17.1 16.7
% growth (YoY) 5.5 22.8 64.4 8.2 RoE 27.4 21.0 22.4 21.5
EBITDA 3,179 3,914 2,689 1,471 Dividend Yield 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.3 15.3 12.2 7.1 EBITDA Margins 16.1 12.7 14.3 14.4
Other Income 29 86 46 55 Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Extraordinary Items - - - -
Net profit 2,457 3,239 2,139 820
8
Financial summary – Astral

Table 8: Profit and Loss statement Table 11: Cashflow statement
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) (Rs mn, year ending March 31)
Operating Income (Sales) 43,940 51,632 60,131 69,683 Operating Cashflow 5,723 5,735 7,894 9,723
Operating Expenses 36,386 43,557 49,910 57,593 Working Capital Changes -514 -1,355 -964 -771
EBITDA 7,554 8,075 10,221 12,091 Capex -3,760 -3,500 -1,500 -2,000
% margins 17.2 15.6 17.0 17.4 Free Cashflow 1,963 2,235 6,394 7,723
Depreciation & Amortisation 1,269 1,734 1,797 1,856 Cashflow from Investing -5,500 -3,500 -1,500 -2,000
Interest Cost 129 86 27 12 Activities
Other Income 244 546 591 801 Issue of Share Capital - - - -
Recurring PBT 6,400 6,800 8,989 11,023 Inc (Dec) in Borrowings 184 -551 -150 -100
Less: Taxes 1,581 1,564 2,067 2,535 Dividend paid -611 -1,023 -3,052 -4,169
Less: Minority Chg. In Cash & Cash -82 540 3,053 3,304
-19 120 140 150
Interest/Extraordinary Items equivalents
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Table 12: Key ratios
(Year ending March 31)
Table 9: Balance sheet Ratios FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Per Share Data (Rs)
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) EPS (Diluted Adjusted) 23.8 25.5 33.8 41.5
Balance Sheet FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E CEPS (Cash EPS) 30.1 34.1 42.7 50.7
Assets Dividend per share (DPS) 3.0 5.1 15.2 20.8
Total Current Assets 17,678 19,600 24,882 30,503 Book Value per share (BV) 116.3 136.7 155.2 176.0
of which cash & cash
eqv. 4,678 5,218 8,271 11,575 Growth Ratios (%)
Total Current Liabilities 8,845 8,871 10,137 11,683 Operating Income 38.3 17.5 16.5 15.9
Net Current Assets 8,833 10,728 14,745 18,820 EBITDA 17.2 6.9 26.6 18.3
Investments 1,740 1,740 1,740 1,740 Adjusted Net Income 19.8 7.2 32.5 23.0
Net Fixed Assets 16,192 17,958 17,662 17,805 EPS (Diluted Adjusted) 19.8 7.2 32.5 23.0
Total Assets 33,870 37,558 42,544 48,308
Valuation Ratios (x)
Liabilities P/E 81.0 75.6 57.0 46.4
Borrowings 851 300 150 50 P/CEPS 64.0 56.4 45.1 37.9
Total Liabilities 10,226 9,701 10,817 12,263 P/BV 16.5 14.1 12.4 10.9
Equity Share Capital 201 201 201 201 EV / EBITDA 50.4 47.1 36.9 30.9
Face Value per share EV / Operating Income 8.7 7.4 6.3 5.4
(Rs) 1 1 1 1
Reserves & Surplus 23,165 27,258 30,988 35,157 Operating Ratios
Net Worth 23,366 27,459 31,189 35,357 Other Income / PBT (%) 3.8 8.0 6.6 7.3
Minority Interest 278 398 538 688 Effective Tax Rate (%) 24.7 23.0 23.0 23.0
Total Liabilities & NWC / Total Assets (%) 7.1 10.0 11.1 11.4
Shareholders' Equity 33,870 37,558 42,544 48,308 Net D/E Ratio (x) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Return/Profitability Ratios (%)
Adjusted Net Income Margins 10.9 9.9 11.3 12.0
Table 10: Quarterly trend RoCE 21.0 18.3 21.3 22.9
RoE 22.6 20.1 23.1 25.1
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) Dividend Yield 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1
Quarterly Trend Dec'21 Mar'22 Jun'22 Sept'22 EBITDA Margins 17.2 15.6 17.0 17.4
Net sales 11,027 13,906 12,129 11,716 Source: Company data, I-Sec research
% growth (YoY) 22.9 23.3 73.1 -2.4
EBITDA 1,976 2,168 1,706 1,440
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.9 15.6 14.1 12.3
Other Income 62 164 114 135
Net profit 1,273 1,441 970 782
9
Financial summary – Finolex Industries

Operating Income (Sales) 46,473 42,922 40,300 43,469 Operating Cashflow 10,486 3,899 6,137 6,568
Operating Expenses 36,197 39,749 32,960 35,437 Working Capital Changes -842 544 -351 -432
EBITDA 10,276 3,173 7,341 8,032 Capex -756 -2,455 -1,500 -1,500
% margins 22.1 7.4 18.2 18.5 Free Cashflow 9,730 1,443 4,637 5,068
Depreciation & Amortisation 834 832 890 939 Cashflow from Investing
-11,140 1,545 -3,000 -3,300
Other Income 822 1,307 1,258 1,150 Issue of Share Capital - - - -
Recurring PBT 10,123 3,410 7,521 8,140 Inc (Dec) in Borrowings 742 -800 -200 -1,500
Less: Taxes 3,181 887 1,923 2,079 Dividend paid -2,482 -2,633 -2,569 -2,777
-3,571 -110 -110 -110 -2,552 2,120 478 -899
Per Share Data (Rs)
of which cash & cash eqv. 810 2,931 3,409 2,510
Total Current Liabilities 10,035 10,740 8,516 9,134 Growth Ratios (%)
Net Current Assets 21,740 19,316 21,645 22,979 Operating Income 34.2 -7.6 -6.1 7.9
Investments 27,177 23,177 24,677 26,477 EBITDA 3.8 -69.1 131.3 9.4
Net Fixed Assets 9,932 11,601 12,261 12,822 Adjusted Net Income 10.7 -67.3 116.8 8.1
Total Assets 53,454 53,358 54,074 56,585 EPS (Diluted Adjusted) 10.7 -67.3 116.8 8.1
Liabilities Valuation Ratios (x)

Borrowings 2,780 1,980 1,780 280 P/E 12.2 37.2 17.2 15.9
Total Liabilities 14,176 14,081 11,657 10,774 P/CEPS 11.0 28.3 14.9 13.8
Equity Share Capital 1,241 1,241 1,241 1,241 P/BV 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1
Face Value per share (Rs) 2 2 2 2 EV / EBITDA 8.2 27.0 11.4 10.1
Reserves & Surplus 38,037 38,037 41,176 44,570 EV / Operating Income 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.9
Net Worth 39,278 39,278 42,417 45,811
Minority Interest - - - - Operating Ratios
Total Liabilities & Other Income / PBT (%) 8.1 38.3 16.7 14.1
53,454 53,358 54,074 56,585
Shareholders' Equity Effective Tax Rate (%) 31.4 25.2 25.2 25.2
Source: Company data, I-Sec research NWC / Total Assets (%) 10.1 9.1 9.6 10.0
Net D/E Ratio (x) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4
Table 15: Quarterly trend Return/Profitability Ratios (%)

(Rs mn, year ending March 31) RoCE 16.6 4.1 10.9 11.4
Quarterly Trend Dec'21 Mar'22 Jun'22 Sept'22 RoE 22.8 6.7 14.0 14.0
Net sales 10,047 15,946 11,898 9,411 Dividend Yield 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.8
% growth (YoY) -5.8 27.7 23.2 -13.1 EBITDA Margins 22.1 7.4 18.2 18.5
EBITDA 2,419 2,647 1,259 -1,427 Source: Company data, I-Sec research
EBITDA Margin (%) 24.1 16.6 10.6 -15.2
Other Income 194 248 251 388
Net profit 1,774 2,080 886 -951
10
Financial summary – Prince Pipes and Fittings

Operating Income (Sales) 26,568 25,476 28,576 32,537 Operating Cashflow -384 3,566 2,329 2,830
Operating Expenses 22,380 23,500 24,833 28,223 Working Capital Changes -3,570 1,892 -770 -761
EBITDA 4,188 1,975 3,743 4,314 Capex -1,605 -1,000 -1,000 -700
% margins 15.8 7.8 13.1 13.3 Free Cashflow -1,989 2,566 1,329 2,130
Depreciation & Amortisation 703 813 877 936 Cashflow from Investing
-1,708 -1,000 -1,000 -700
Other Income 55 117 141 189 Issue of Share Capital 5 - - -
Recurring PBT 3,401 1,152 2,972 3,549 Inc (Dec) in Borrowings 648 -1,100 -200 -100
Less: Taxes 880 290 749 894 Dividend paid -387 -138 -445 -531
-27 - - - -1,713 1,328 685 1,499
Net Income (Reported) 2,494 861 2,223 2,655 Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Net Income (Adjusted) 2,514 861 2,223 2,655
Per Share Data (Rs)
of which cash & cash
586 1,915 2,599 4,098
eqv. Growth Ratios (%)
Total Current Liabilities 5,096 4,643 4,769 5,430 Operating Income 28.3 (4.1) 12.2 13.9
Net Current Assets 7,596 7,033 8,488 10,747 EBITDA 13.9 (52.8) 89.5 15.2
Investments 117 117 117 117 Adjusted Net Income 11.0 (65.7) 158.0 19.4
Net Fixed Assets 6,682 6,869 6,992 6,756 EPS (Diluted Adjusted) 11.0 (65.7) 158.0 19.4
Total Assets 19,390 18,562 20,266 22,951
Valuation Ratios (x)
Liabilities P/E 24.7 72.2 28.0 23.4
Borrowings 1,500 400 200 100 P/CEPS 19.3 37.2 20.1 17.3
Total Liabilities 6,738 5,186 5,111 5,672 P/BV 4.9 4.7 4.1 3.6
Equity Share Capital 1,106 1,106 1,106 1,106 EV / EBITDA 15.0 30.7 16.0 13.5
Face Value per share EV / Operating Income 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8
1 1 1 1
(Rs)
Reserves & Surplus 11,547 12,271 14,049 16,173 Operating Ratios
Net Worth 12,653 13,376 15,155 17,278 Other Income / PBT (%) 1.6 10.2 4.7 5.3
Minority Interest - - - - Effective Tax Rate (%) 25.9 25.2 25.2 25.2
Total Liabilities & NWC / Total Assets (%) 35.6 27.0 28.6 28.5
19,390 18,562 20,266 22,951
Shareholders' Equity Net D/E Ratio (x) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
Return/Profitability Ratios (%)
Table 20: Quarterly trend RoCE 20.1 6.2 14.6 15.3
RoE 21.8 6.6 15.6 16.4
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) Dividend Yield 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.9
Quarterly Trend Dec'21 Mar'22 Jun'22 Sep'22 EBITDA Margins 15.8 7.8 13.1 13.3
Net sales 6,640 9,012 6,041 6,365 Source: Company data, I-Sec research
% growth (YoY) 20.9 18.4 82.7 -16.4
EBITDA 1,111 1,405 439 -113
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.7 15.6 7.3 -1.8
Other Income 17 1 12 27
Extraordinary Items - 6 - 2
Net profit 673 878 160 -242
11
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Equity Research INDIA

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 1: Supreme Industries – change in estimates

Table 2: Comparison table

Financial summary – Supreme Industries

(Rs mn, year ending December 31) Return/Profitability Ratios (%)

Financial summary – Astral

Financial summary – Finolex Industries

Liabilities Valuation Ratios (x)

Table 15: Quarterly trend Return/Profitability Ratios (%)

Financial summary – Prince Pipes and Fittings

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