Accident

Modeling-2
OBJECTIVES
Able to model accidents in
process industries

Able to adopt safety measures

to prevent accident

Limitations: No detailed discussion

on P&ID
ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION AND
PREDICTION MODEL
Important to understand the causes of accidents and to develop
preventive strategies to mitigate the occurrence

Provide a conceptualization of the characteristics of the accident

that typically show the relation between the causes and effects

Accident
models Explain why and how accidents occur which will be used as
technique for risk assessment
CLASSIFICATION
According to Hollnagel (2004), accident models are classified into

Sequential
Accident
Epidemiological
models
Systemic
1. SEQUENTIAL MODEL

The simplest type of accident models

Describe the accident as the result of a sequence of

events that occur in a specific order
 + Unsafe
Heinrich domino model: Condition

Element 3 (unsafe act and/or mechanical or physical hazard) is probably

the easiest factor to remove
2. EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL
Describe an accident analogues to the spreading of
disease.
As the outcome of a combination of factors, some
manifest and some latent, that happen to exist together
3. SYSTEMIC MODEL

Describe the characteristics on the system level,

rather than on the level of specific cause-effect
mechanisms or even epidemiological factors

An accident occurs when several causal factors exist

coincidentally in a specific time and space

Example: Systems Theoretic Accident Model and Process

(STAMP) by Leveson (2004)
Useful
methods
and models
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)

Method for determining the causes of an accident (top event)

A graphical model that displays the various combinations of

normal events by using
• Logic gates
• Equipment failures
• Human errors
• Environmental factors
A fault tree analysis may be qualitative, quantitative, or
both!
GATE
SYMBOLS
EVENT
SYMBOLS
EVENT
SYMBOLS
BOOLEAN ALGEBRA

AND: all the inputs are required to cause the output

P B AND C = P B ∩ C = P B P(C)
BOOLEAN ALGEBRA

OR: any input or combination of inputs will cause the output

P B OR C = P B ∪ C = P B + P C − P B P(C)
Example
The system represented in the figure illustrates the
operation of a lamp fed by two batteries. In order to have
energy in the circuit it is enough that one of the batteries
works.
Build the fault tree for the event: Failure on the lighting
system
Exercise
Develop the fault tree for the water system shown below.
Take “no water from pump system” as the top event!
EVENT TREE ANALYSIS (ETA)

Use to analyze event sequences following an initiating event

The event sequence is influenced by either success or

failure of numerous barriers or safety functions

Lead to a set of possible consequences

How to construct
an ETA
SAFETY Barrier 3
Barrier 1 Barrier 2
FUNCTION
Step 1: Enter the initiating event that may give rise to unwanted consequences and safety functions.

Initiating event
SAFETY Barrier 3
Barrier 1 Barrier 2
FUNCTION
Step 2: Evaluate the safety barriers that are designed to deal with the accidental event

Success

Initiating event

Failure
SAFETY Barrier 3
Barrier 1 Barrier 2
FUNCTION
Step 3: Evaluate the safety functions

Initiating event

If the safety function does not affect the course of the accident,
the accident path proceeds with no branch to the next safety
function.
Example
Develop ETA for the undesired event of a pipe rupture at
point K!
System Hazard Identification, Prediction
and Prevention (SHIPP) Model
Developed by Rathnayaka, Khan, and Amyotte
Step 1: Develop Event Tree
Normal
Operation
Release
Deviation Success
Prevention Safe
Barrier
(RPB)
Dispersion
Success
Prevention Near miss
Fail Barrier
(DPB)
Ignition
Success
Prevention
Mishap
Barrier
Fail (IPB)
Escalation
Success
Prevention
Incident
Fail Barrier
(EPB)

Accident
Fail
Step 2: Develop FTA for each barrier
Step 2: Develop FTA for each barrier

Etc…
Step 3: Calculate failure probability of each barrier

Failure Probability
Safety Barrier (yi)
P(yi)
Release Prevention Barrier (RPB) 0.0498
Dispersion Prevention Barrier (DPB) 0.0612
Ignition Prevention Barrier (IPB) 0.1060
Escalation Prevention Barrier (EPB) 0.0290
Step 4: Occurrence probability of each consequence
Normal
Operation
Release
Deviation 1-0.0498 Success
Prevention Safe
Barrier 0.9502
(RPB)
Dispersion
1-0.0612 Success
Prevention Near miss
Fail Barrier
0.0498*(1-0.0612)
0.0498 (DPB)
Ignition = 0.0467
Prevention 1-0.1060 Success
Mishap
Barrier
Fail (IPB) 0.0027
0.0612 Escalation
Success
Prevention
Incident
Fail Barrier 1-0.0290
(EPB) 0.0003
0.1060

Accident
Fail
0.0290 9.3*10-6
Step 5: Predictive Modelling
Rate of abnormal event (𝜆𝑝 ):

𝜆 𝛼 + σ𝑛𝑖=0 𝑦𝑛
𝜆𝑝 = 𝐸 =
𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝛽+𝑛

𝛼 and 𝛽 are gamma distribution parameters and can be taken

as 0.01

σ 𝑦𝑛 is the total number of abnormal events in the time interval n

Step 5: Predictive Modelling Example
Cumulative number of abnormal events for each severity over the first 10 months

σ 𝑦𝑛 is the total number of abnormal

events in the time interval n
= 54+116+30+18+2 = 220
0.01 + 220
𝜆𝑝 = = 21.98 = 22
0.01 + 10
Step 6: Updating Mechanism [P(data/yi)]
Month RPB DPB IPB EPB
1 0.6 0.4444 0.2500 0
2 0.6429 0.3333 0.1667 0
3 0.6098 0.3200 0.2500 0
4 0.7419 0.3478 0.4063 0.0769
5 0.7580 0.3277 0.3846 0.0667
6 0.7544 0.3178 0.3902 0.1250
7 0.7528 0.3284 0.3864 0.1176
8 0.7513 0.3103 0.3778 0.1176
9 0.7547 0.3000 0.3750 0.1111
10 0.7545 0.3012 0.4000 0.1

𝑁𝑀 + 𝑀 + 𝐼 + 𝐴 𝐼+𝐴
𝑅𝑃𝐵 = 𝐼𝑃𝐵 =
𝑆𝑎𝑓𝑒 + 𝑁𝑀 + 𝑀 + 𝐼 + 𝐴 𝑀+𝐼+𝐴

𝑀+𝐼+𝐴 𝐴
𝐷𝑃𝐵 = 𝐸𝑃𝐵 =
𝑁𝑀 + 𝑀 + 𝐼 + 𝐴 𝐼+𝐴
Step 7: Posterior Failure Prob. [P(yi/data)]

𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 Month RPB DPB IPB EPB

𝑦𝑖 𝑃 𝑦𝑖 𝑃(𝑦𝑖)
𝑃 = 1 0.0729 0.0496 0.0380 0.0000
𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎
σ𝑃 𝑃(𝑦𝑖) 2 0.0862 0.0316 0.0232 0.0000
𝑦𝑖
3 0.0757 0.0298 0.0380 0.0000

4 0.1309 0.0336 0.0750 0.0025

Example: RPB month-1 5 0.1410 0.0308 0.0690 0.0021

𝑦𝑖 0.6 ∗ 0.0498 6 0.1387 0.0295 0.0705 0.0042

𝑃 =
𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 0.6 ∗ 0.0498 + 1 − 0.6 ∗ (1 − 0.0498) 7 0.1376 0.0309 0.0695 0.0040
= 0.072885 8 0.1367 0.0285 0.0672 0.0040

9 0.1389 0.0272 0.0664 0.0037

10 0.1388 0.0273 0.0733 0.0033

Step 8: Using the same event tree, update the
consequence table

Month Safe NM M I A
1 0.9271 0.0693 0.0035 0.000137 0
2 0.9138 0.0835 0.0027 6.3E-05 0
3 0.9243 0.0734 0.0022 8.57E-05 0
4 0.8691 0.1265 0.0041 0.000329 8.2E-07
5 0.8590 0.1366 0.0040 0.000299 6.38E-07
6 0.8613 0.1346 0.0038 0.000287 1.22E-06
7 0.8624 0.1334 0.0040 0.000294 1.17E-06
8 0.8633 0.1328 0.0036 0.000261 1.04E-06
9 0.8611 0.1351 0.0035 0.00025 9.32E-07
10 0.8612 0.1350 0.0035 0.000277 9.19E-07