Astra Agro Lestari, Tbk (AALI) 11 August 2022

Mounting Headwinds Ahead

INDONESIA | PLANTATION |UPDATE BUY
MARKET PRICE IDR 9,350
2Q22 Financial Performance TARGET PRICE IDR 13,200
Revenues declined -24.39% YoY to IDR 4.38 trillion (Figure 1), partly due to the ban on palm POTENTIAL UPSIDE +41.18%
oil exports. CPO and its derivative contributed 86.7% to the overall 2Q22 revenues while COMPANY DATA
the rest came from Palm Kernel and its derivative (12.9%) and others (0.4%). O/S SHARES (BN): 1.93
MARKET CAP (IDR TN): 17.90
Gross Profit Margin (GPM) fell to 19% from 22% compared with the same period in the JCI WEIGHT (%) 0.13
previous year as steep rise in input costs intensified. Similarly, Operating Profit Margin 52 - WK HI/LO (IDR): 13,400/7,875
PAR VALUE (IDR): 500
(OPM) shrank to 11% from 17% in 2Q21 as Operating Income plunged 49.60% YoY.
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS, %
In the bottom line, Net Profit shrank by 35.28% YoY which brought Net Profit Margin (NPM)
PT. Astra international Tbk. 79.68%
marginally declined to 8% from 9%. Publik 20.32%

As of 5M22, AALI produced 1.5 million tons of CPO (-15.5% YoY) and booked a 13.4% PRICE VS. JCI
decrease in processed FFB as plant productivity continued to decline due to long dry season
140
in 2019. 120

100
Sector View
80
As of July 2022, CPO prices have plunged 40.5% dropped from March 2022 (Figure 2) 60

following a policy shift in Indonesia to encourage exports by reducing export levies. 40

20
Furthermore, continued output growth in Indonesia (Figure 3) and Malaysia also exerted 4-Aug-17 4-Aug-18 4-Aug-19 4-Aug-20 4-Aug-21 4-Aug-22

further pressure on prices. Good weather and high CPO prices encouraged producers to
AALI JCI

raise yields in 2022.

Source: PSI Research, Bloomberg
Prices of CPO and other commodities may see a decline in 2H22 as a possible stagflation
KEY FINANCIALS
(the combination of rising inflation and slowing economic growth) squeezes demand. On
IDR Tn FY20 FY21 FY22F FY23F
top of that, a potential recession in 2023 may further defer any demand recovery.
Revenue 18.8 24.3 24.1 24.4
In our view, CPO prices are likely to decline to below USD1,000 a ton and eventually settle
Gross Profit 3.0 4.8 6.1 5.9
at on average USD 855 by the end of this year.
Net Profit 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.8
We remain upbeat on Indonesia’s CPO plantation sector as it is underpinned by strong EPS, IDR 464 1,074 1,425 1,447
biodiesel production and domestic demand. P/E, x 26.5 8.8 9.3 9.1
P/BV, x 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.1
According to the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), total domestic consumption is
ROE, % 4.2 5.9 6.9 6.9
estimated at 20.59 million tons this year from 18.42 million tons in 2021. Indonesia's
ROA, % 2.9 4.1 5.0 5.0
domestic use of CPO for biodiesel is expected to reach 10.15 million kilo liters in 2022, up
Source: PSI Research
from 9.4 million kilo liters estimated for last year.

Valuation and Recommendation

So far, AALI 1H22 performance was in line with our expectation. Going forward, we
conservatively forecast revenue to tepidly grow by 7.32% CAGR over FY20-24 (Figure 4) on
the back of modest CPO demand (Figure 3).

We maintain our Buy rating with a target price of IDR 13,200 (+41.18% potential upside)
with undemanding valuation as indicated in Figure 5 (FY22F P/BV of 0.76x). Our target price Marvin Lievincent
is derived from DCF valuation based on a WACC of 7.57%). (+62 21 57 900 800)
marvin@phillip.co.id
Key risks: 1) the emergence of new COVID-19 variants resulting in another round of
lockdowns worldwide and 2) policy changes in Indonesia and importing countries.

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 PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk COMPANY UPDATE

Figure 1 – 2Q22 Financial Summary (IDR bn)

In Trillion IDR 2Q21 2Q22 YoY 1Q22 2Q22 QoQ% 1H22 FY22F % of FY 22
Revenue 5,797 4,383 -24.39% 6,581 4,383 -33.40% 10,965 24,079 45.54%
- Cost of Revenue (4,515) (3,557) -21.22% (5,587) (3,557) -36.33% (9,144) (18,019) 50.75%
Gross Profit 1,282 826 -35.57% 994 826 -16.90% 1,821 6,060 30.05%
Operating Income 990 499 -49.60% 681 499 -26.73% 1,180 4,341 27.18%
Net Income 513 332 -35.28% 506 332 -34.39% 838 2,743 30.55%

GPM 22% 19% 15.1% 18.8% 16.6% 25.2%

OPM 17% 11% 10.3% 11.4% 10.8% 18.0%
NPM 9% 8% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 11.4%

6M21 6M22 YoY

CPO & its derivative 9,746 9,519 -2.34%
PK & its derivative 1,014 1,406 38.71%
Others 72 40 -44.55%
Source: Company, Bloomberg, PSI Research Team

Figure 2– CPO Prices (USD/MT) Figure 3 – Indonesia CPO Production (MT)

2,000 55

1,600 45

1,200 35

800 25

400 15
Jan-08 Aug-11 Mar-15 Oct-18 May-22 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022F

Source: World Bank, PSI Research Team Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GAPKI, PSI Research Team

Figure 4–Revenues (IDR bn) Figure 5 – AALI Forward P/BV Band

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

-
2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F

CPO and it's derivative PK and it's derivative

Source: Company, PSI Research Team Source: PSI Research Team

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 PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk COMPANY UPDATE

Financial
Rp Tn 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F
ASSETS
Total Current Assets 4,472 5,938 9,414 11,221 12,472
Total Non-Current Assets 22,502 21,843 20,986 20,823 20,983
Total Assets 26,974 27,781 30,400 32,043 33,455
Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities 1,567 1,793 5,960 6,119 6,024
Total Non-Current
Liabilities 6,429 6,741 3,268 3,268 3,268
Total Liabilities 7,996 8,533 9,229 9,388 9,292
Total Equity 18,979 19,248 21,171 22,656 24,163
Total Liabilities and Equity 26,974 27,781 30,400 32,043 33,455

Rp Tn 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

Income Statement
Revenue 17,453 18,807 24,322 24,079 24,434
COGS 15,308 15,844 19,492 18,019 18,537
Gross Profit 2,145 2,963 4,830 6,060 5,897
Operating Profit 960 1,842 3,430 4,341 4,405
EBIT 931 2,161 3,885 4,198 4,262
Net Income 244 894 2,067 2,743 2,785

Rp Tn 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

Cash Flow
Total CFO 957 1,902 4,497 2,888 5,369
Total CFI (1,307) (999) (1,187) (1,200) (1,594)
Total CFF 685 (307) (393) (1,259) (1,278)
Net Cash Flow 334 596 2,917 429 2,497

2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

Growth Ratio
Sales and Revenue -9% 8% 29% -1% 1%
Gross Profit -39% 38% 63% 25% -3%
Operating Profit -59% 92% 86% 27% 1%
Net Income -84% 267% 131% 33% 2%
Profitability Ratio
GPM 12.29% 15.75% 19.86% 25.17% 24.13%
OPM 5.50% 9.80% 14.10% 18.03% 18.03%
NPM 1.40% 4.75% 8.50% 11.39% 11.40%
ROA 0.69% 2.90% 4.10% 4.98% 4.98%
ROE 0.98% 4.19% 5.89% 6.89% 6.89%
Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio 2.85 3.31 1.58 2.03 2.03
Quick Ratio 1.48 1.96 1.02 1.13 1.50
Leverage Ratio
Debt to Equity 42% 44% 44% 40% 40%
Debt to Asset 30% 31% 30% 29% 28%
Valuation Ratio
P/E 150.31 26.54 8.84 9.26 9.12
P/BV 1.48 1.23 0.86 1.12 1.05

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 PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk COMPANY UPDATE

Important Information
Rating for Sectors:
Overweight : We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Neutral : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Underweight : We expect the industry to under-perform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.

Rating for Stocks:

Buy : The stock is expected to give total return (price appreciation + dividend yield) of > +10% over the next12 months.
Hold : The stock is expected to give total return of > 0% to ≤ +10% over the next 12 months.
Sell : The stock is expected to give total return of < 0% over the next 12 months.
Outperform : The stock is expected to do slightly better than the market return. Equal to “moderate buy”
Underperform : The stock is expected to do slightly worse than the market return. Equal to “moderate sell”

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report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part of
their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

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Investment Banking and Advisory activities: In the preceding 12 months, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia and/or an affiliate is not involved in any investment
banking activities with PT. Astra Agro LestariTbk.
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PT. Astra Agro Lestari Tbk.
Other Financial Interests: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia owns 0 shares in PT. Astra Agro Lestari Tbk.

Analyst’s Disclosure:
Share Ownership: The analyst who wrote and published this report owns 0 shares in PT. Astra Agro Lestari Tbk.
Affiliation: The analyst who wrote and published this report is not affiliated with PT. Astra Agro Lestari Tbkand any of the affiliates of PT. Astra Agro
Lestari Tbk.

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 PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk COMPANY UPDATE

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