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UPDATED TO 2020-22 SYLLABUS

CAIE A2 LEVEL
MATHS (9709)
SUMMARIZED NOTES ON THE SYLLABUS
CAIE A2 LEVEL MATHS (9709)

P (A ≥ 3) = 1 − P (A < 3)
1. The Poisson Distribution 1.952 e−1.95 1.951 e−1.95 1.950 e−1.95
=1−( + + )
2! 1! 0!
​ ​ ​

The Poisson distribution is used as a model for the

number,  X, of events in a given interval of space or = 1 − 0.690 = 0.310
times. It
has the probability formula
Part (ii):
λx Write the distribution using the correct notation
P (X = x) = e−λ ​                             x = 0,  1,  2, …
x! (A + B ) ∼ P o (2 (0.65 + 0.45)) = (A + B ) ∼ P o (2.2)
Where λ is equal to the mean number of events in the given
interval Use the limits given in the question to find probability

(2.2)3 (2.2)2 (2.2)1 (2.2)0

P (A < 4) = e−2.2 ( )
A Poisson distribution with mean λ can be noted as
+ + +
3! 2! 1! 0!
​ ​ ​ ​

X  ∼  P o(λ)
= 0.819
1.2. Suitability of a Poisson Distribution
1.5. Relationship of Inequalities
Occur randomly in space or time
Occur singly – events cannot occur simultaneously P (X < r) = P (X ≤ r − 1)
Occur independently P (X = r) = P (X ≤ r) − P (X ≤ r − 1)
Occur at a constant rate – mean no. of events in given
P (X > r) = 1 − P (X ≤ r)
time interval
proportional to size of interval
P (X ≥ r) = 1 − P (X ≤ r − 1)

1.3. Expectation & Variance

1.6. Poisson Approximation of a
∼ P o  (λ)
For a Poisson distribution X Binomial Distribution
Mean = μ = E (X ) = λ
Variance = σ 2 = Var (X ) = λ To approximate a binomial distribution given by:
The mean & variance of a Poisson distribution are equal
X ∼ B(n, p)

1.4. Addition of Poisson Distributions If n > 50 and np < 5

Then we can use a Poisson distribution given by:
If X and Y are independent Poisson random variables,
with
parameters λ and μ respectively, then X + Y has
a X ∼ P o(np)
Poisson distribution with parameter λ + μ
{IS Ex 8d} Question 8:
  A randomly chosen doctor in general practice sees, on
{IS Ex 8d} Question 1: average, one case
of a broken nose per year and each case is
The numbers of emissions per minute from two radioactive independent of the other
similar cases.
objects A
and B are independent Poisson variables with 1. Regarding a month as a twelfth part of a year,
mean 0.65 and
0.45 respectively. Find the probabilities that: 1. Show that the probability that, between them,
three such doctors
see no cases of a broken
1. In a period of three minutes there are at least three
nose in a period of one month is 0.779
emissions from
A.
2. Find the variance of the number of cases seen
2. In a period of two minutes there is a total of less than
by three such
doctors in a period of six months
four
emissions from A and B together.
2. Find the probability that, between them, three such
Solution: doctors see at
least three cases in one year.
Part (i): 3. Find the probability that, of three such doctors, one
Write the distribution using the correct notation sees three
cases and the other two see no cases in
one year.
A ∼ P o (0.65 × 3) =  A ∼ P o (1.95)
Solution:
Use the limits given in the question to find probability Part (i)(a):
Write down the information we know and need

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CAIE A2 LEVEL MATHS (9709)

1
1 doctor = 1 nose per year = 12 noses per
month
​ If λ > 15
3 1 Then we can use a normal distribution given by:
3 doctors= 12 = 4 noses per month
​ ​

Write the distribution using the correct notation

X ∼ N (λ, λ)
X ∼ P o (0.25)
Apply continuity correction to limits:
Use the limits given in the question to find probability Poisson Normal

0.250 e−0.25 𝑥=6 5.5≤𝑥≤6.5

P (X = 0) = = 0.779 𝑥>6 𝑥≥6.5
0!
​

𝑥≥6 𝑥≥5.5
Part (i)(b):
Use the rules of a Poisson distribution 𝑥<6 𝑥≤5.5
𝑥≤6 𝑥≤6.5
Var (X ) = μ = λ
{IS Ex 10h} Question 11:
Calculate λ in this scenario:
The no. of flaws in a length of cloth, lm long has a Poisson
distribution with mean 0.04l
λ = 6 × μ  (in one month) = 6 × 0.25 = 1.5
1. Find the probability that a 10m length of cloth has
∴ Var (X ) = 1.5
fewer than 2
flaws.
Part (ii): 2. Find an approximate value for the probability that a
Calculate λ in this scenario: 1000m length of
cloth has at least 46 flaws.
3. Given that the cost of rectifying X flaws in a 1000m
λ = 12 × μ  (in one month) = 12 × 0.25 = 3 length of
cloth is X 2 pence, find the expected cost.

Use the limits given in the question to find probability Solution:

Part (i):
P (X ≥ 3) = 1 − P (X ≤ 2) Form the parameters of Poisson distribution

32 31 30 l = 10 and λ = 0.04l
= 1 − e−3 ( + + ) = 1 − 0.423 = 0.577
2! 1! 0!
​ ​ ​

∴ λ = 0.4
Part (iii): Write down our distribution using correct notation

λ f or one doctor in one year = 1 X ∼ P o (0.4)

λ f or other two doctors in one year = 2 × 1 = 2 Write the probability required by the question

For the first doctor: P (X < 2)

3
1
P (X = 3) = e−1 ( ) From earlier equations:
3!
​

0.40 0.41
For the two other doctors: P (X < 2) = e−0.4 ( + ) = 0.938
0! 1!
​ ​

10
P (X = 0) = e−1 ( ) Part (ii):
0! Using question to form the parameters
​

l = 10 and λ = 0.04l
Considering that any of the three could be the first

13 10 ∴ λ = 40 > 15
P (X ) = e−1 ( ) × e−1 ( ) ×3  C2 = 0.025
3! 0!
​ ​ ​ ​

Thus, we can use the normal approximation

Write down our distribution using correct notation
1.7. Normal Approximation of a Poisson
X ∼ P o (40) → Y ∼ N (40,  40)
Distribution
Write the probability required by the question
To approximate a Poisson distribution given by:
P (X ≥ 46)
X ∼ P (λ)
Apply continuity correction for the normal distribution

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CAIE A2 LEVEL MATHS (9709)

P (Y ≥ 45.5) Expectations of combinations of random variables:

Evaluate the probability E (aX + bY ) = aE (X ) + bE (Y )

45.5 − 40 Variance of combinations of independent random
P (Y ≥ 45.5) = 1 − Φ ( ) = 0.192
40 variables:
​

Part (iii): Var (aX + bY + c) = a2 Var (X ) + b2 Var (Y )

Using the variance formula
Var (X ± Y ) = Var (X ) + Var(Y )
2
Var (X ) = E (X 2 ) − (E (X ))
Combinations of identically distributed random variables
For a Poisson distribution having mean
μ and variance σ 2
E (X ) = Var (X ) = λ and
λ = 40
Substitute into equation and solve for the unknown E (2X ) = 2μ and
E (X1 ) + E (X2 ) = 2μ ​ ​

Var (2X ) = 4σ 2 and

Var (X1 + X2 ) = 2σ 2 ​ ​

2 2
∴ 40 = E (X ) − 40 {IS Ex 6b} Question 3:
It is given that X1 and X2 are independent, and
E (X1 )=
E (X 2 ) = 1640 pence
​ ​ ​

E (X2 ) = μ,
Var (X1 ) = Var (X2 ) = σ 2 .
Find E(X ) and
​ ​ ​

E (X 2 ) = ₤16.40 Var (X ),
where X = 12 (X1 + X2 ) ​ ​ ​

Solution:
Expected cost for rectifying cloth is ₤16.40 Split the variance into individual components

1 1 2 1 2
2. Linear Combinations of Var ( (X1 + X2 )) = ( ) Var (X1 ) + ( ) Var (X2
2 2 2
​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

Random Variables Substitute given values, hence

1 1 1 1
Var ( (X1 + X2 )) = σ 2 + σ 2 = σ 2
2.1. Expectation & Variance of a 2 4
​

4 2
​ ​ ​ ​ ​

Function of X
2.3. Expectation & Variance of Sample
E (aX + b) = aE (X ) + b Mean
Var (aX + b) = a2 Var (X ) σ2
E (X ) = μ,
Var (X ) = n ​

{IS Ex 6a} Question 12: {IS Ex 6c} Question 5:

The random variable T has mean 5 and variance 16. Find two The mean weight of a soldier may be taken to be 90kg, and

pairs of
values for the constants c and d such that
σ = 10kg. 250 soldiers are on board an aircraft, find the
E (cT + d) = 100 and
Var (cT + d) = 144 expectation and variance of their weight. Hence find the μ
Solution: and
σ of the total weight of soldiers.
Expand expectation equation: Solution:
Let X be the average weight, therefore
E (cT + d) = cE (T ) + d = 100
E (X ) = μ = 90
∴ 5c + d = 100
2 2
Var (X ) = σn = 250 10
= 0.4 kg2
Expand variance equation:
​ ​

To find μ of total weight, you are calculating

Var (cT + d) = c2 Var (T ) = 144 E (X1 ) + E (X2 ) … + E (X250 ) = 250E (X ) = 22 500
​ ​ ​

kg
16c2 = 144 To find σ , first find Var(X)
Var (X1 ) … + Var (X250 ) = 250Var (X ) = 2500kg
​ ​

c = ±3
Var (X ) = σ 2 = 25000
Use first equation to find two pairs:
∴σ= 25000 = 158.1kg
c = 3,   d = 85c = −3,   d = 115
​

2.2. Combinations of Random Variables

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CAIE A2 LEVEL MATHS (9709)

Part (i):
3. Continuous Random Total area must equal 1 hence

Variables ∫
5
kx (6 − x) = [3kx2 −
kx3
] =1
5

3 2
​ ​ ​

2
3.1. Probability Density Functions (pdf) 125 8
= 75k − k − 12k + k = 24k = 1
3 3
​ ​

Function whose area under its graph represents

probability used for
continuous random variables 1
∴k=
Represented by f (x) 24
​

Part (ii):
Mode is the value which has the greatest probability hence
we are
looking for the max point on the pdf

d
[kx (6 − x)] = 6k − 2kx
dx
​

Finding max point hence stationary point

6k − 2kx = 0
1
6 ( 24 )
x= =3
​

1
2 ( 24 )
​

∴ mode = 3
Part (iii):
P (X < m) can be interpreted as P (−∞ < X < m)
Conditions:
3 3
m
kx3
Total area always = 1 ∫ kx (6 − x) = ∫ kx (6 − x) = [3kx − ] 2
3 2
​ ​ ​ ​

−∞ 2
d
∫ ​ f (x) dx = 1 =
1
(3(32 ) −
33 23
− 3(22 ) + ) =
13
c 24 3 3 36
​ ​ ​ ​

Cannot have negative probabilities ∴ graph cannot dip

below x-axis; f (x) ≥ 0 3.2. Mean & Variance
Probability that X lies between a and b is the area from
a
to b To calculate mean/expectation
∞
E (X ) = ∫
b
P (a < X < b) = ∫ f (x) dx ​ xf (x) dx
−∞
​

(x) = 0; show on a sketch

Outside given interval f To calculate variance:
P (X = b) always equals 0 as there is no area First calculate E(X) then E(X 2 ) by
Notes: ∞
P (X < b) = P (X ≤ b) as no extra area added E (X 2 ) = ∫ ​ x2 f (x) dx
−∞
The mode of a pdf is its maximum (stationary point)
Substitute information and calculate using
{IS Ex 9a} Question 6:
Given that: 2
Var (X ) = E (X 2 ) − E (X )

f (x) = {
kx(6 − x) 2<x<5
3.3. The Median
0 otherwise
​ ​

The Cumulative Distribution Function

(cdf)
1. Find the value of k
2. Find the mode, m Gives the probability that the value is less than b
3. Find P (X < m)
P (X < b) or P (X ≤ b)
Solution:

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CAIE A2 LEVEL MATHS (9709)

Represented by F (b) Part (a):

It is the integral of f (x) Write down distribution

b X ∼ N (1,  0.252 )
F (b) = ∫ ​ f (x) dx
−∞ Write down the probability they want
Median: the value of b for which F (b) = 0.5 P (X > 1.25) = 1 − P (X < 1.25)
Standardize and evaluate

1.25 − 1
1 − P (Z < ) = 0.1587
0.25
​

Part (b):
Write down initial distribution

X ∼ N (1,  0.252 )

For sample, mean remains equal but variance changes

Find new variance
2 2
Variance of
sample = σn = 0.2510 = ​ ​
0.00625
Write down distribution of sample

Y ∼ N (1,  0.00625)
4. Sampling & Estimation Write down the probability they want

4.1. Sample & Population P (Y < 0.9)

Standardize and evaluate
Population: collection of all items
Standardized probability is negative so do 1 minus
Sample: subset of population used as a representation of
the
entire population 0.9 − 1 0.1
P (Z < ) = 1 − P (Z < ) = 0.103
0.00625 0.00625
​ ​

4.2. Central Limit Theorem

4.3. Point Estimate & Confidence
If (X1 ,  X2 ,  … ,  Xn ) is a random
sample of size n
Interval
​ ​ ​

drawn from any population with mean μ and

variance σ 2
then the sample has:
A point estimate is a numerical value calculated from a
Expected mean, μ set of
data (sample) which is used as an estimate of an
2 unknown parameter
in a population
Expected variance, σn
Examples of point estimates are:
​

It forms a normal distribution:

σ2 Sample mean x $$$$ population mean μ

X ∼ N (μ, )
​

Sample proportion nr $$$$ population proportion p

n ​

Sample variance s2 $$$$ population variance σ 2

{IS Ex 10f} Question 12:
The weights of the trout at a trout farm are normally
Point estimate close to population value but not exact
distributed with
mean 1kg & standard deviation 0.25kg
We can determine a confidence interval where the
1. Find, to 4 decimal places, the probability that a trout population
value is likely to lie in
(x − δ,   x + δ)
chosen at
random weighs more than 1.25kg.
2. If Y kg represents mean weight of a sample of 10 4.4. The Variance
trout
chosen at random, state the distribution of Y :
evaluate the mean and variance. Find the probability Variance can be calculated/given for either a sample or a
that the mean
weight of a sample of 10 trout will be population
and there is a difference between them
less than 0.9kg
Using the divisor n
Solution:
This is appropriate to use when

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CAIE A2 LEVEL MATHS (9709)

data is given for the whole population and you are z is the value corresponding to the confidence level
interested in
the variance of the whole required
and n is the sample size
data is given for the sample and you are interested in The confidence interval calculated is exact
the
variance of just the sample
Large sample taken from an unknown population
2 distribution with known
population variance
(Σx2 − )
1 (Σx)
σ2 = ​ ​

n n
By the Central Limit Theorem, the distribution of X
will
be approximately normal so same method as above
Using the divisor (n − 1)

(x − z )
σ σ
Appropriate to use when data is given for a sample and ​,  x + z ​

you are
estimating variance of the whole population n​ n ​

The quantity calculated s2 is known as the unbiased The confidence interval calculated is an approximate
estimate of the population variance
Large sample taken from an unknown population
2
(Σx2 − )
1 (Σx) distribution with
unknown population variance
s2 =
n−1
​ ​

n
As the population variance is unknown, you must first
estimate the
population variance, s, using sample data
4.5. Percentage Points for a Normal
(x − z )
s s
Distribution n
​

​
,  x + z
n
​

The percentage points are determined by finding the z - The confidence interval calculated is an approximate
value of
specific percentages
E.g. to find the z -value of a 95% confidence level, we can {W13-P71} Question 2:
see
that the 5% would be removed equally from both Heights of a certain species of animal are normally
sides
(2.5%) so the z -value we would actually be finding distributed with
σ = 0.17m. Obtain a 99% confidence
would be
of 100% − 2.5% = 97.5% interval for the
population mean, with total width less than
0.2m. Find the smallest
sample size required.
Solution:
For a 99% confidence interval, find z where
Φ (z ) = 0.995 (think of the 1% cut from both sides)

z = 2.576

Subtract the limits of the interval and equate to 0.2

(x + z ) − (x − z ) = 0.2
σ σ
​

n n ​

2 (z ) = 0.2
σ
​

n ​

Substitute information given and find n

Percentage Points Table
Confidence level 90% 95% 98% 99% 0.2
n= × 0.17
2 × 2.576
​ ​

z-value 1.645 1.960 2.326 2.576

n = 4126.53 ≈ 4130
4.6. Confidence Interval for a
Population Mean 4.7. Confidence Interval for a Population
Proportion
Sample taken from a normal population distribution with
known
population variance Calculating the confidence interval from a random
sample of n
observations from a population in which the
σ σ
(x − z ,  x + z
​
) ​
proportion of successes
is p and the proportion of
n ​ n ​

failures is q
The observed proportion of success p is
nr where r
​ ​

represents the number of successes

( )

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CAIE A2 LEVEL MATHS (9709)

(p − z )
pq pq H1 : μ = μ0 , a two-tail test for a difference
,  p + z
​ ​
​ ​ ​ ​

n
​ ​ ​

n
​ ​

The test statistic is calculated from the sample. Its value is

used to decide whether the null hypothesis should be
{S10-P71} Question: rejected
A random sample of n people were questioned about their The rejection or critical region gives the values of the
test
internet
use. 87 of them had a high-speed internet statistic for which the null hypothesis is rejected
connection. A confidence
interval for the population The acceptance region gives the values of the test statistic
proportion having a high-speed internet
connection is 0.1129 for
which the null hypothesis is accepted
 <  p  <  0.1771. The critical values are the boundary values of the
rejection
region
1. Write down the mid-point of this confidence interval The significance level of a test gives the probability of the
and hence find
the value of n. test statistic falling in the rejection region
2. This interval is an α% confidence interval. Find
α.
To carry out a hypothesis test:
Solution:
Define the null and alternative hypotheses
Part (i):
Decide on a significance level
Find the midpoint of the limits, finding p
Determine the critical value(s)
0.1771 − 0.1129 Calculate the test statistic
0.1129 + = 0.145 Decide on the outcome of test depending on whether
2
​

value of test
statistic lies in rejection/acceptance region
The midpoint is equal to the proportion of people with high-
State the conclusion in words
speed
internet use so
87 The test statistic Z can be used to test a hypothesis
n ​ = 0.145 ∴ n = 600 about a
population
Part (ii):
Using the upper limit, this was calculate by: x−μ
z= ​

σ2
pq n ​ ​

0.1771 = 0.145 + z ​ ​

n
where μ is the population mean specified by H0 ​

Substituting values calculated (q = 1 − p), find z

The critical values for some commonly used rejection
87 regions:
600 × 513
600
0.0321 = z            ∴ z = 2.233
​ ​

600 Significance level Two-tail One-tail

​ ​

μ = μ0 μ > μ0 μ < μ0
Use normal tables and find corresponding probability
​ ​ ​

10 ±1.645 1.282 −1.282

Φ (z ) = 0.9872 5 ±1.960 1.645 −1.645
Think of symmetry, the same area is chopped off from both 2 ±2.326 2.054 −2.054
sides of the
graph so 1 ±2.576 2.326 −2.326
1 − 2 (1 − 09872) = 0.9744
5.2. Testing Different Distributions
Hence the α% confidence is = 97.44%
Test for mean, known variance, normal distribution or
large
sample
5. Hypothesis Tests
X ∼ N (μ, σ2
n ​ )
5.1. Null & Alternative Hypothesis
Use general procedure as outlined above
For a hypothesis test on the population mean μ, the null
Test for mean, large sample, variance unknown
hypothesis H ∗ 0 proposes a value
μ ∗ 0 for μ
X ∼ N (μ, sn )
2

H0 : μ = μ0
​

​ ​

Use the same procedure however must use unbiased

The alternative hypothesis H ∗ 1 suggests
the way in
estimate of the
population variance, s
which μ might differ from μ ∗ 0. H1
can take three
Test for large Poisson mean
​

forms:
H1 : μ < μ0 , a one-tail test for a decrease
​ ​

X ∼ N (λ, nλ ) ​

H1 : μ > μ0 , a one-tail test for an increase

​ ​

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CAIE A2 LEVEL MATHS (9709)

Use general procedure but must approximate normal

distribution using
the mean given
Must apply continuity correction

Test for proportion, large sample (Binomial distribution)

pq
X ∼ N (p, )
​

n
Similar to Poisson approximation; using probability of
success and
applying continuity correction

5.3. Type I and Type II Errors

Calculating P(Type II error):
A Type I error is made when a true null hypothesis is Firstly, calculate the acceptance region by leaving
x as
rejected a variable and equating the test statistic
to the
A Type II error is made when a false null hypothesis is significance level
accepted Next, calculate the conditional probability that μ is
P(Type I error) = significance level now
μ′ and x is still in the acceptance region

P(x is in acceptance region | μ = μ′ )

Calculate this by substituting the limit of the acceptance
region as
x (calculated previously) and the new, given μ′
into
the test statistic equation and find the probability

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CAIE A2 LEVEL
Maths (9709)

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