Mathematical modeling of the spread of the Ebola virus

Table of contents

Introduction 2

Conceptual formulation of the modeling problem 5

Mathematical formulation of the problem 7

Results of the work and Analysis 10

Conclusion 16

Bibliography 18

1
Introduction

Ebola virus is a contagious disease that causes Ebola haemorrhagic fever in higher primates1

(Fig. 1). The virus got its name in honor of the river, next to which one of the earliest outbursts

happened. The virus is transferred to humans from animals in the wild and spreads from human to

human. Ebola is characterized by high mortality and an extremely severe course of the disease. The

time interval from the moment of infection with the virus to the onset of symptoms is from 2 to 21

days. It is known that a person infected with Ebola won't spread the disease until symptoms appear.

The symptoms include fever, weakness, muscle pain, headache, sore throat, vomiting, diarrhea, rash,

impaired kidney and liver function2.

Figure 1. Ebola Virus3

It is believed that the natural hosts of the Ebola virus are fruit bats Pteropodidae (lat. Pteropodidae).

The Ebola virus is transmitted from person to person as a result of close physical contact, namely,

close contact of damaged integument or mucous membranes with infected body fluids, of which blood,

1
Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease). 2022,
www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/index.html#:~:text=Ebola%20Virus%20Disease%20(EVD)%20is,person%20infected%20with%20
Ebola%20virus.. Accessed 5 Feb. 2022.
2
Signs and Symptoms. 2022, www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/symptoms/index.html. Accessed 5 Feb. 2022.
3
virologydownunder.com. “Yes, There Were Signs That Ebola Was in West Africa, Perhaps as Far Back as 1973.” Virology
down Under, 31 July 2018,
virologydownunder.com/yes-there-were-signs-that-ebola-was-in-west-africa-perhaps-as-far-back-as-1973/. Accessed 5 Feb.
2022.

2
feces and vomit are the most contagious. People remain contagious as long as Ebola virus disease

(EVD) is in the body.

Currently there are no licensed vaccines to prevent Ebola virus disease. However, multiple

investigational Ebola vaccines have been tested in numerous clinical trials around the world4. Those

vaccines have been used as an aid to contain the spread of Ebola outbreaks in Guinea and the

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). An experimental Ebola vaccine demonstrated a high

prophylactic effect against EVD in a large-scale trial conducted in 2015 in Guinea. The study involved

11,841 people5. Among the 5,837 people who received the vaccine, not a single case of Ebola was

reported 10 days or more after vaccination. At the same time, among those who did not receive the

vaccine, 10 or more days after vaccination, 23 cases of the disease were registered. The rVSV-ZEBOV

vaccine was used during the latest 2018–2019 Ebola outbreaks in the DRC. Initial data indicates a high

efficacy of this vaccine. The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts has stated that additional

Ebola vaccines need to be evaluated.

For all the time, about 32 thousand people have suffered from the Ebola virus (Table 1). As of 2020,

the Ebola virus is still active. Outbreaks that occurred in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea between

2014 and 2016 had the highest mortality (Fig. 2). During this period, about 30 thousand people were

infected, of which 11 thousand died. The distribution area of ​the Ebola virus is regions with a low

standard of living: the countries of West and Central Africa. The main reason for such a wide and rapid

spread of fever is the low level of medicine and the lack of ideas about hygiene among the local

population. In addition, all these countries have not yet had time to “stand on their feet” after the

military conflicts and coups that have befallen them. One of the latest outbreaks occurred recently,

namely in August 2019. During this disease outbreak (2018–2019.), the average case fatality rate for

EVD made up about 50%.

Table 1. Timeline of Ebola outbreaks from 2014 to 2019

4
“Ebola Vaccines.” Nih.gov, 9 Jan. 2020, www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/ebola-vaccines. Accessed 6 Feb. 2022.
5
Patrick, Charles. “Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (Ebola Virus Disease).” MedicineNet, MedicineNet, 19 July 2019,
www.medicinenet.com/ebola_hemorrhagic_fever_ebola_hf/article.htm. Accessed 15 Apr. 2022.

3
Year Country Virus Cases Deaths Fatality rate

subtype

2018 - Democratic Republic of Continues

2019 the Congo

2018 Democratic Republic of 54 33 61%

the Congo

2017 Democratic Republic of 8 4 500%

the Congo

2015 Italy 1 0 0%

2014 Spain 1 0 0%

2014 United Kingdom of 1 0 0%

Great Britain and

Northern Ireland

2014 USA Ebola Zaire 4 1 25%

2014 Senegal 1 0 0%

2014 Mali 8 6 75%

2014 Nigeria 20 8 40%

2014 - Sierra Leone 14124 3956 28%

2016

2014 - Liberia 10675 4809 45%

2016

2014 - Guinea 3811 2543 67%

2016

4
 Figure 2. The spread of the Ebola virus in West Africa 6

Thus, The Ebola virus is causing massive outbreaks at a time when a vaccine has not yet been

developed, and in order to fight the infection, scientists need to know how the disease will spread in

order to establish a quarantine zone at the right time and thereby stop further infection. Thanks to

mathematical modeling, we can get one of the possible options for the spread of the disease, without

victims and new infected. That is why full-scale experiments and laboratory studies are less effective

in this situation than a mathematical model. Thereby, the purpose of this work is to develop,

implement and investigate a mathematical model for the spread of the Ebola virus. The model should

allow tracking the spread of the disease, as well as the state of each person at any given time.

Conceptual formulation of the modeling problem

In the course of the work, the methodology of cellular automata will be used, because the

analytical method of modeling requires taking into account a large number of factors related to the

need to describe the condition of each person at each time and predict the further spread of the disease

based on the condition of the surrounding people. Therefore, the mathematical formulation of the

6
2014-2016 Ebola Outbreak Distribution in West Africa Error Processing SSI File. 2022,
www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/distribution-map.html. Accessed 6 Feb. 2022.

5
modeling problem contains many parameters, the meaning of which becomes not obvious. The spread

of the disease obeys a certain rule, the objects in the cellular automaton also obey the algorithm,

therefore, the use of the cellular automaton is most effective for solving the problem.

A cellular automaton (Fig. 3) can be represented as a lattice of cells,

each of which can be in a finite number of possible states.

The cellular automaton simulation modeling general subject to the

following hypotheses7:

● The state of each cell is updated as a result of the execution of

a sequence of discrete constant steps in time (or cycles);

● The variables in each cell are changed simultaneously

("synchronously"), based on the values ​of the variables in the

previous step;

● The rules for determining the new state of a cell depends on the local values ​of cells from some

neighborhood of the given cell.

In the context of the task, the following hypotheses are formulated:

● The object of modeling is a population of people, each of

which can be in one of the following states: healthy, infected,

sick, immune, died as a result of the disease;

● Consider a limited simulation field with dimensions of 100 by

100 cells (Fig. 4);

● Consider the Moore neighborhood8, a set of eight cells on a

square parquet, (Fig. 5);

7
“Cellular Automata Machines.” Google Books, 2013,
books.google.ru/books?id=HBlJzrBKUTEC&pg=PA27&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false. Accessed 5 Feb. 2022.
8
“Moore Neighborhood.” Wolfram.com, Wolfram Research, Inc., 2022,
mathworld.wolfram.com/MooreNeighborhood.html. Accessed 7 Feb. 2022.

6
 ● Let healthy cells be marked in white (Fig. 6), people with immunity in green (Fig. 7), dead

cells in black (Fig. 8), infected in yellow (Fig. 9), sick cells in red (Fig. 10);

● Periodic boundary conditions are used. In the current case, the simulation field will take the

form of a torus.

Figure 5. Moore neighborhood, 8 cells

Figure 6. Healthy cell Figure 7. Cell with immunity

Figure 8. Dead cell Figure 9. Infected cell Figure 10. Sick cell

Mathematical formulation of the problem

Since each state of the cell has its own set of rules transitioning from the original state to

another, it was decided to highlight the main ones and demonstrate them in Table 2.

Table 2. Cellular automaton rules

Condition Consequence Image

7
1 If there is a yellow cell next to a Then a white cell with

white cell. probability P1 becomes

yellow.

2 If there is a red cell next to a Then a white cell with

white cell. probability P1 becomes

yellow.

3 If there is a black cell next to a Then a white cell with a

white cell. probability P2 becomes

yellow.

4 If there are black and yellow Then a white cell with

cells next to a white cell. probability P3 becomes

yellow.

5 If there are black and red cells Then a white cell with

next to a white cell. probability P3 becomes

yellow.

6 If there is a green cell next to a Then a white cell with

white cell. probability P4 becomes

green.

7 If one more step passes Then the yellow cell with

probability P5 becomes red.

8
8 If you take one more step Then a red cell with

probability P6 becomes

black.

9 If one more step passes Then a yellow cell with

probability P7 becomes

green.

10 If there are 3 white cells next to Then a black cell with

a black cell. probability P8 becomes

white.

A more detailed meaning of the cellular automaton parameters is given in Table 3.

Table 3 Cellular automaton parameters

No. Probability Probability value

1 P1 The likelihood of a healthy person being infected when interacting with a

sick or Ebola-infected person.

2 P2 The probability of a healthy person being infected when interacting with

someone who died of Ebola virus disease.

3 P3 The likelihood of a healthy person being infected by contact with a person

who has died from the virus and with an infected or ill Ebola virus.

4 P4 The likelihood of a healthy person gaining hereditary immunity through

contact with people who are already immune from the disease.

9
 5 P5 The probability with which a disease within an infected person progresses

to a new stage and leads to the appearance of symptoms of the disease.

6 P6 The probability that a person already ill with the Ebola virus dies.

7 P7 The probability that an infected person will overcome the disease and gain

immunity from the disease.

8 P8 The probability with which a new healthy cell appears in our population

instead of a deceased person.

Results of the work and Analysis

In accordance with the list of hypotheses and rules of the cellular automaton formulated above,

a mathematical model has been developed. Using the model, a series of numerical experiments was set

up to simulate the spread of the disease caused by the Ebola virus. Changing the probability of

infection of the cell, obtaining immunity and lethality of the virus, various situations were considered,

from which 3 scenarios of the development of events can be distinguished in general.

Scenario 1.

All cells in the population became infected with the virus and died during the course of the

disease. The value of the probabilities is given in the Table. 4.

Table 4. Probability value for scenario No. 1

Parameter P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8

number

Parameter 0.65 0.78 0.40 0.25 0.20 0.44 0.99 0.99

value

10
Increasing the Parameter of mortality in the mathematical model and increasing the probability of

infection, a situation was obtained in which the entire population died during the course of the disease.

Analyzing the number of cells and changing their state according to the graph (Fig. 11), we can

conclude that such a combination of probabilities gives a disease similar to smallpox. This disease has

the same high mortality rate and high risk of infection. Drawing an analogy, we can also say that in the

resulting scenario, the population can only survive if the vaccine is invented immediately or the focus

of the disease is placed in a quarantine zone in time.

Figure 11. Dependence of the number of cells in different states on the step number (Scenario

1)

Scenario 2.

The entire population of cells acquired immunity against the virus. The value of the

probabilities is given in the Table. 5.

Table 5. Probability value for scenario No. 2

Parameter P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8

number

11
Parameter 0.85 0.88 0.70 0.67 0.40 0.34 0.49 0.65

value

By increasing the probability of obtaining immunity from the disease and reducing the infection

parameter, we have a situation in which the entire population of cells has become immune to the

disease. An analysis of the graph of the number of cells and their state over a certain period of time

(Fig. 12) allows us to conclude that the resulting model is similar to the spread of the measles virus. It

is also highly contagious, but in most cases, a person receives strong immunity from this disease. It can

be assumed that for viruses with low "contagiousness" and low mortality, the population can cope in

almost all cases without vaccination due to innate immunity.

Figure 12. Dependence of the number of cells in different states on the step number (Scenario

2)

Scenario 3.

The system has reached a state of equilibrium in which the number of dead cells is

approximately equal to the number of living cells. The value of the probabilities is given in the Table.

6.

Table 6. Probability value for scenario No. 3

12
Parameter P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8

number

Parameter 0.65 0.78 0.40 0.45 0.20 0.04 0.99 0.95

value

Equating the probability of infection and obtaining immunity, as well as reducing the lethality

parameter, a situation was obtained that is similar to the spread of one of the flu strains. Such a

conclusion can be drawn based on the dynamics of the graph (Fig. 13). Such viruses are one of the

main enemies of man, since the number of people who acquire immunity is, of course, large, but the

number of deaths is also high. To prevent such a situation, people invent vaccines and try by all means

to isolate healthy people from infected ones.

Figure 13. Dependence of the number of cells in different states on the step number (Scenario

3)

The results obtained are not entirely objective, since the cells remain motionless during the entire time

of the study. Since we are considering a population, it will be appropriate to apply the methodology of

dynamic cellular automata. The main difference in this way of modeling from the previous one is that

the cells change not only their state, but also their position on the field. The algorithm by which the

cell changes its position is as follows:

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● an absolutely empty field of the same size as the one you are looking for is created;

● for each cell in the first field, adjacent cells in the new field are considered;

● if neighboring cells are not occupied by other cells, then the cell passes into it;

● if all neighboring cells are occupied, then the cell remains in the same cell in which it was located

at the previous step.

To analyze and compare two models (static and dynamic), a series of numerical experiments was

carried out, using probabilities from all previous scenarios.

Scenario 4.

Rapid spread of the disease and mass deaths. The value of the probabilities is given in the

Table. 7.

Table 7. Probability value for scenario No. 4

Parameter P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8

number

Parameter 0.65 0.78 0.40 0.25 0.20 0.44 0.99 0.99

value

14
 Figure 14. Dependence of the number of cells in different states on the step number (Scenario

4)

Scenario 5.

The cells of the population become infected, but some of them acquire immunity from the

disease. The value of the probabilities is given in the Table. 8.

Table 8. Probability value for scenario No. 5

Parameter P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8

number

Parameter 0.85 0.88 0.70 0.67 0.40 0.34 0.49 0.65

value

Figure 15. Dependence of the number of cells in different states on the step number (Scenario

5)

Scenario 6.

Dynamic equilibrium in a mobile cellular automaton. The value of the probabilities is given in

the Table. 9.

Table 9. Probability value for scenario No. 6

15
 Parameter P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8

number

Parameter 0.6 0.78 0.40 0.45 0.20 0.04 0.99 0.95

value

Figure 16. Dependence of the number of cells in different states on the step number (Scenario

6)

Comparing Fig. 14 with Fig.15 and with Fig. 16, it is concluded that dynamic cellular automata are

closest to the real situation of the spread of the Ebola virus. The resulting graphs show that the spread

of the virus in any case leads to a state of equilibrium. Regardless of the change in parameters, the

disease does not stop spreading, and it follows that the acquired immunity will not be able to stop the

virus. Based on this, we can say that today the issue of developing a vaccine is relevant and needs to be

addressed in the near future.

Conclusion

As a result of the work, a mathematical model was developed for the spread of the disease

caused by the Ebola virus, taking into account various conditions. A conceptual and mathematical

16
formulation was formulated. An enumeration of probabilities was carried out and 3 scenarios for the

development of events were identified, and to achieve the goal, experiments were carried out with the

movement of cells in a cellular automaton, from which it follows that dynamic cellular automata are

the most rational for predicting the development of a disease. In the course of the work, it was proved

that EVD is a dangerous disease that humanity will have to fight for a long time, and only with the

invention of a vaccine will the world's population be able to stop the spread of Ebola.

17
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Signs and Symptoms. 2022, www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/symptoms/index.html. Accessed 5 Feb. 2022.

“Cellular Automata Machines.” Google Books, 2013,

books.google.ru/books?id=HBlJzrBKUTEC&pg=PA27&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false.

Accessed 5 Feb. 2022.

“Ebola Vaccines.” Nih.gov, 9 Jan. 2020, www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/ebola-vaccines.

Accessed 6 Feb. 2022.

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mathworld.wolfram.com/MooreNeighborhood.html. Accessed 7 Feb. 2022.

Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease). 2022,

www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/index.html#:~:text=Ebola%20Virus%20Disease%20(EVD)%20is,pers

on%20infected%20with%20Ebola%20virus.. Accessed 5 Feb. 2022.

Patrick, Charles. “Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (Ebola Virus Disease).” MedicineNet, MedicineNet, 19

July 2019, www.medicinenet.com/ebola_hemorrhagic_fever_ebola_hf/article.htm. Accessed 15

Apr. 2022.

virologydownunder.com. “Yes, There Were Signs That Ebola Was in West Africa, Perhaps as Far Back

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virologydownunder.com/yes-there-were-signs-that-ebola-was-in-west-africa-perhaps-as-far-bac

k-as-1973/. Accessed 5 Feb. 2022.

18