EUROPE’S AMERICAN PRESIDENT +

POLITICO.EU | OCTOBER 6-12, 2022 | VOLUME 8, NUMBER 32 The European Commission chief’s top-down approach endears
her to Washington even as it alienates colleagues in Brussels. PAGE 18
ISSN 2406-5250 ILLUSTRATION BY LUCAS PEVERILL FOR POLITICO

THE PARADOX OF
URSULA VON DER LEYEN
 Page 2 October 6, 2022 Leading off

By Paul Dallison U.K. the pound has been devalued gled apricot hell beast himself,
by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng Donald Trump, has given his
THE POLITICS OF CHOCOLATE AND TRUMP’S KISS OF DEATH FOR LIZ to such an extent that the Mars backing to the job Truss is doing
bar is now the official currency. as British prime minister (a job,
TRUSS: There just isn’t enough petty revenge in international trademark law. And at the Conservative Par- lest you forget, that pretty much
ty conference, Business Secre- everyone else has described as
If, for example, I was working for discount retailer Lidl — which, despite repeated tary and haunted pencil Jacob a dumpster fire, if that dump-
Rees-Mogg called for “freedom ster was full of soiled nappies
job applications, has yet to happen — I would be planning retribution on a for chocolate oranges.” and fish guts).
Railing against his own gov- “I have a feeling she might
grand scale in the wake of the chocolate bunnies court ruling of last week. ernment’s new rules restricting be right,” the golfer and some-
where shops can display junk time ex-president said of Truss’
As you may have seen, a Swiss to stop selling its version of the of Swiss judges, or formed into food, Rees-Mogg urged shoppers near-universally panned tax-cut
court ruled that the foil-wrapped rabbit-shaped confectionery and the letters FU LINDT. to move chocolate closer to the plans on somehow still-going
chocolate bunny made by pre- to destroy all its remaining stock. Jonathan Drucker, a former checkout. broadcaster GB News.
mium chocolate maker Lindt & Now, the word “destroy” hope- general counsel at Belgian choc- “May I encourage people as Trump also said Truss seemed
Sprüngli (you can see why they fully doesn’t mean throwing the olate maker Godiva told the New a passive protest to move the “very nice, very good,” and
just use Lindt on the packaging as bunnies in the bin, or letting Jür- York Times that Lindt was “an chocolate oranges to the check- claimed she had received “a great
Sprüngli sounds like an infection) gen in the warehouse eat them 800-pound gorilla in the choc- out counter,” he told a packed send-off from the queen” — there-
deserves protection from copy- all. The chocolate can surely be olate industry.” So maybe they room at a conference fringe fore seemingly implying that the
cats, including one made by Lidl. melted and used again in a differ- could turn the Lidl bunnies into event. “Freedom for chocolate queen was merely holding on
As a result, the German dis- ent shape, say a middle finger to an 800-pound chocolate gorilla? oranges is what I say.” until Truss was in post before

DE-
count retailer has been ordered be waved in the general direction Speaking of chocolate, in the Speaking of orange, the man- dying.

This week in history

October 7, 2003: Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor of California. The actor was the subject of a
backlash after signing the Auschwitz Museum guestbook with his iconic catchphrase from “The Termina-
tor,” “I’ll be back” — which many felt was rather insensitive. The museum posted on Twitter an explanation
for the actor’s inscription: “This visit was planned to be relatively short. The inscription was meant to be a

CLASSIFIED
promise to return for another and more in-depth visit.”

WHO’S UP CAPTION COMPETITION BACKHANDED AWARD

The Eiffel Tower: THE ‘SHUT UP AND

The Paris mayor’s
office scrapped
plans for new
buildings at the
foot of the Eiffel
Tower after months of protests
from environmentalists. Under the
scheme, about 20 mature trees
would have been cut down and
four new buildings — housing a
cafe, shops, toilets and a baggage
drop-off area — constructed. In-
stead the area will continue to be
the traditional home of thousands
of cheap plastic miniature Eiffel
Towers covered in flashing lights,
just as Gustave Eiffel wanted.
WHO’S DOWN
Kim Kardashian:
The reality TV
star was ordered
to pay a $1.26
million fine by the
U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commis-
sion (SEC) for failing to disclose
a $250,000 payment she was
given by a cryptocurrency firm
to promote its tokens. She also
agreed not to promote crypto
asset securities for three years.
A spokesperson for the SEC said:
“OMG, Kim is, like, the greatest of
all time.”
MAKE CARS’ AWARD
FOR MEANINGLESS
INTERFERENCE
Remember when
Elon Musk did
normal things like calling his child
X Æ A-XII — X and live-tweeting
himself taking a shit? Simpler
times.
Now he’s been given an online
kicking by the president of
Ukraine after proposing that
Ukraine cede some of its territory
and hold new elections in areas
annexed by Russia in order to
achieve peace. “This is highly
likely to be the outcome in the end
— just a question of how many die
before then,” Musk wrote on Twit-
ter, adding that another possible
outcome would be nuclear war.
Responses from Ukrainian officials
and supporters were swift and
unsparing. “Which @elonmusk do
you like more?” Volodymyr Zelen-
skyy tweeted, including a poll that
“LAST ONE TO RUIN THE ECONOMY IS A LOSER.” had options for “One who supports
Ukraine” and “One who supports
Can you do better? Email pdallison@politico.eu. Best entries appear in our Friday newsletter, and here next week. Russia.” Ukrainian diplomat Andriy
Melnyk, who was once Ukraine’s
ambassador to Germany, also
weighed in, tweeting: “Fuck off is
my very diplomatic reply to you @
elonmusk.”

Saudi Arabian footballers: President Gitanas Nausėda

LAST WEEK’S WINNER
Ukraine will join Spain and BY FRED MYERS of Lithuania also came to the
Portugal in their bid to host the defense of his country’s ally,
2030 football World Cup, accord- “Yes, ‘Global’ is out of the picture for now,” writing: “Dear @elonmusk, when
ing to media reports. That’s bad someone tries to steal the wheels
news for Saudi Arabia, which is of your Tesla, it doesn’t make
expected to put forward a joint bid Thanks for all the entries. them legal owner of the car or
with Egypt and Greece, and which of the wheels. Even though they
does rather less well in the “good The only prize is the gift of laughter, which I think we claim both voted in favor of it.
publicity” stakes than Ukraine. can all agree is far more valuable than cash or booze. Just saying.”

THIS WEEK ON EU CONFIDENTIAL THIS WEEK ON WESTMINSTER INSIDER

EUROPEAN POLITICAL COMMUNITY MEETING: This week’s episode
comes to you from Prague Castle, where leaders of the EU’s 27 countries
are meeting with nearby countries including the U.K., Turkey and Ukraine.
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inaugural meeting and debate the future aims of this multinational grouping.
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criticized by members of her own government. Ailbhe reports live from the top
speeches and the fiery fringe meetings as Tory MPs despair at the new regime.
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 DECLASSIFIED TOO Page 4 October 6, 2022

Palate cleanser AGENDA

Thursday,
Lens
Insider tips from our newsroom on where to eat in and around the EU quarter. October 6: A weekly glimpse into a reporter’s notebook, er, camera roll
Meeting of the
European Political
Community
Friday,
October 7:
Informal meeting
of heads of state,
Prague
Friday,
October 7:
Coreper I
Tuesday, October
11 — Wednesday,
October 12:
Informal meeting
of energy
ministers
Wednesday,
October 12:
Coreper I
Wednesday,
October 12:
Coreper II
Wednesday,
JAYA NICELY
October 12
— Thursday,
Gioia restaurant for people who want to impress.
Much like Teston’s Carina sandwicherie in
October 13:
Informal meeting
RUE BELLIARD 36 the European district, Gioia is effortlessly of employment
charismatic. If it were a car, it’d be an Alfa and social affairs
A sanctum for the high-flying food lovers of Romeo; if it were a president, it’d be Obama. ministers
the European quarter, this easygoing Ital-
ian restaurant offers fresh pasta dishes with Who’s picking up the check? If your com-
contemporary flavors. pany limits stretch that far, you’ll probably INFLUENCERS:
want to expense it. Some of the pasta dish- Tech move:
What’s good? The restaurant’s founders — es can be the wrong side of €20, and for a Benedikt
Carine Teston and Tania Nicaise — have put main you could be spending up to €40. Blomeyer, former
together an avant-garde menu that fuses director of EU
traditional taverna-style ingredients with a Spotted: Gioia is populated by a mixture of
modern spin. The menu is adapted monthly lawyers and high-flying consultants. It’s the
policy at Allied
For Startups, has Week 40: Berlin
based on seasonal availability. type of place where big-euro deals are bro- joined Apple as a
The pasta dishes dominate as the most cre- kered and political alliances are cooked up. regulatory affairs Tourists gather at Checkpoint Charlie in Berlin as Germany celebrated
ative yet charmingly subtle on offer. The ravi- manager.
oli with potatoes, hazelnuts, porcini mush- Fun fact: Co-owner Nicaise trained as its Unity Day this week which commemorates the coming together
a lawyer before teaming up with staff Energy:
rooms and Castelmagno cheese are served
in a butter sauce that tenderizes the pasta’s at the prestigious Roma restaurant in Antony Lagrange is of the former East Germany with West Germany in 1990. The former
texture, allowing each pocket to gently burst Brussels, which was run by Carine’s par- now a policy officer
open and release a concoction of woody ents, Aldo and Pierina Teston. Tania eventu- working on energy border station — not far from POLITICO’s Berlin bureau — has long been
flavors on the tongue. For fish connoisseurs, ally joined forces with her future Gioia co- security and
owner as Carina’s pastry chef. safety at the an attraction for visitors to the German capital, so much so that it’s now
the tuna provokes a sharp and salty kick that
wakes you up for the afternoon shift. European surrounded by fast food outlets.
Insider tip: For the information hunter- Commission’s
What’s not? Located halfway up one of the gatherers of the EU bubble, understated yet DG ENER,
most polluted streets in Belgium, when you chic restaurants such as these are golden. A after working
emerge after a fine meal, you’ll probably discreet place to eke out leads and to build on automated Joshua Posaner, POLITICO’s senior policy reporter in Berlin, files an image a week
choke from the vehicle fumes. up a reservoir of intel. and connected this year from wherever he’s reporting (or vacationing). Look for it on this page in
vehicles at DG
GROW.
each print edition, and on the @politicoeurope Instagram account each weekend.
Vibe: Classy, sophisticated, cool. This is a — SAMUEL STOLTON

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 Page 5 October 6, 2022 News

CALLS MOUNT
FOR EU
PARLIAMENT
TO HALT
STRASBOURG
TREK AMID
ENERGY CRISIS
French politicians are
still opposed to the idea

BY WILHELMINE PREUSSEN

Calls are growing among European

Parliament members to pause the reg-
ular commutes between the cham-
ber’s two seats in Brussels and Stras-
bourg to conserve resources amid
fears of a severe energy crunch this
winter.
As the Parliament’s latest plenary
session in Strasbourg comes to a close
Thursday, a contingent of lawmak-
ers from different parties are arguing
they should not return to the eastern
French city. German conservative Pe-
ter Liese from the European People’s
Party — Parliament’s largest group —
wrote a letter to Parliament President
Roberta Metsola this week, urging her
to suspend the commute until April
as Russia’s war in Ukraine squeezes
the Continent’s energy supply and
sends bills skyrocketing.
“If we ask everyone to save ener-
gy, it is not responsible to heat two
buildings and make unnecessary
trips,” Liese said. “During the Corona
pandemic, we met only in Brussels
for a very long time for good reason.
For many people, the energy crisis is
worse. That’s why we have to react
now as well.”
Parliament Vice President Katarina
Barley from the Socialists & Demo-
crats echoed the remarks.
“We should check whether it is
possible to close the Parliament build-
ings in Strasbourg and how much en-
ergy this would actually save,” Barley
said. “We are in a similar emergen-
cy situation as back in COVID times,
when the EP in Strasbourg also re-
mained closed.”
But the French strongly oppose
stopping the trips to Strasbourg:
Several votes have previously been
held in attempts to alter the setup,
which is enshrined in the EU treaties.
French officials, including President
Emmanuel Macron, along with local
Strasbourg businesses, stress the im-
portance of Strasbourg to the Euro-

SCHOLZ’S ‘GERMANY FIRST’ ENERGY

pean parliamentary process.
In March 2020, during the COVID
pandemic, the late former Parliament
President David Sassoli canceled par-

PLAN FIRES FRANCO-ITALIAN REVOLT

liamentary sessions in Strasbourg af-
ter French authorities designated the
area a coronavirus red zone. French
officials repeatedly expressed frustra-
tion at the decision and MEPs even-
tually resumed their Strasbourg ses-
sions in December 2020.
Scholz pouring Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s blinkered fo- €200 billion into the German econ- A Metsola spokesperson confirmed
up to €200 cus on German rather than EU pri- omy to help cushion the impact of she received the letter from Liese as
billion into
Ursula von der Leyen orities in the energy crisis is blowing soaring energy prices. well as a total of five messages about
the German must deal with her up on European Commission Presi- That huge cash injection sparked energy savings. She plans to respond,
economy to French and Italian dent Ursula von der Leyen, whose howls of protest from the Italian and the spokesperson noted, though the
help cushion all-important French and Italian com- French commissioners to the EU, answer for Liese looks set to be “no”
the impact of
commissioners going missioners are now breaking ranks Paolo Gentiloni and Thierry Breton, for now.
soaring energy rogue to protest against to cry foul about Berlin’s behavior. putting von der Leyen’s Commission Parliament’s press services sepa-
prices. heavy German spending Facing heavy pressure from indus- in the excruciating position of hav- rately said the first priority is “for the
try and consumers — and voters in ing to distance itself from two of her EU to stand united” while tackling en-
FILIP SINGER/EPA
regional elections in Lower Saxony most senior officials, from the bloc’s ergy prices and inflation at the same
BY SUZANNE LYNCH on Sunday — Scholz is taking a go-
AND HANS VON DER BURCHARD it-alone approach to pouring up to SEE SCHOLZ ON PAGE 12 SEE STRASBOURG ON PAGE 12
 News
COULD LIZ TRUSS BE DEPOSED?
Divided
and facing BY ESTHER WEBBER,
ELENI COUREA, EMILIO
oblivion CASALICCHIO, AILBHE REA
under AND ANNABELLE DICKSON
IN BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND
Truss,
rumours Liz Truss campaigned for the Tory
are swirling leadership on a message of hope. It’s
around the a quality in short supply among her
party faithful.
Tory party The mood at the Conservative
that the Party conference in Birmingham this
new PM week has been dark, as Tories uncon-
vinced by Truss’ economic program
could be despair at their chances of victory at
ousted the next election.
“What I increasingly think is going
to happen is we’re going to accept
Liz Truss said our fate. She will just shrivel — her
on entering administration and her ability to do
No. 10 that she anything will shrivel,” said one for-
was not afraid mer government aide.
of making The signs for Truss are ominous.
unpopular Since her tax-cutting “mini-budget”
decisions. sent the pound plunging and the
financial markets into turmoil, the
TOLGA AKMEN/
EPA opposition Labour Party has surged
ahead in the polls.
The PM — who entered No. 10 say-
ing she was not afraid to make un-
popular decisions — has already been
forced into multiple policy U-turns.
Most explosive was a late-night re-
versal on controversial plans to cut
the top rate of tax, an idea that had
prompted open revolt among her
backbenchers.
Her media appearances have also
failed to convince, and this week the
normally supportive Daily Mail news-
paper savaged her leadership.
Most worryingly of all, discipline
among her senior ministers looks to
be breaking down. As Truss mulled
a real-terms cut to welfare Tues-
day, Leader of the Commons Penny
Mordaunt argued on Times Radio that
it in fact “makes sense” for payments
to rise in line with inflation. Truss’
Welsh secretary, Robert Buckland,
told journalists the “safety net” was
“important.” Immediately, Truss’
fledgling plan looked dead on arrival.
Against this backdrop, Truss’ fu-
ture appears perilous. Former Cabi-
net Minister Grant Shapps, who sup-
ported her rival Rishi Sunak in the
recent leadership contest, warned: “I
don’t think members of Parliament —
Conservatives — if they see the polls
continue as they are, are going to sit
on their hands. A way would be found
to make that change.”
Certainly the Conservative Party
is famed for its ruthlessness, having
killed off its last two leaders in little
over three years. Would MPs really
have the stomach to do it all again?
‘CATASTROPHIC’
Some are sanguine about the idea.
“It’s quite clear this has been the
most catastrophic start to a govern-
ment anyone can remember,” said a
senior Tory MP.
Another, pointing at the polls, add-
ed: “If we face a choice between ex-
tinction and change, the party will
choose change.”
The same minister quoted above
confirmed there was already “a lot
of chatter” about letters of no confi-
dence being sent to Tory backbench
leader Graham Brady. Bloomberg re-
ported one such letter had already
been submitted.
Technically, Truss is safe from
challenge for a full year under the
current party rules. Only after that,
if 15 percent of all Tory MPs submit
letters to Brady’s 1922 committee of
backbenchers, would its executive
members meet to discuss a confi-
dence vote in the leader.
But another minister warned:
“If things are bad enough, the rules
can be changed or fudged. If Gra-
ham Brady gets 80 letters of no con-
fidence, I can’t imagine him sitting
on his hands.”
A senior Conservative who bumped
into the famously tight-lipped Brady
last month said they had remarked
on a potentially busy month ahead.
Brady reportedly just rolled his eyes
and replied: “Who can tell?”
One added complication that may
count in the PM’s favor is that the ex-
ecutive cannot meet until October 18,
when new MPs will be added to its
number. Several former members of
the executive who caused headaches
for Boris Johnson have now been giv-
en ministerial jobs under Truss, and
cannot serve.
Brady has already demonstrated
his clout to the new administration,
having reportedly taken it upon him-
self Sunday night to inform Truss
in person that her tax cut for the
wealthy would not fly. Her U-turn
swiftly followed.
WHO’S NEXT?
If Tory MPs do work up the nerve
— and create a mechanism — to get
rid of their new leader swiftly, some
believe they should not then risk re-
peating the bloody two-month lead-
ership contest that played out over
the summer.
“It would have to be a coronation,”
a minister warned. “We can’t spend
another six weeks tearing chunks
out of each other when Labour is
30 points ahead in the polls.”
But it’s unclear how such a bitter-
ly divided party could possibly unite
around a single successor. Former
Chancellor Rishi Sunak, whose re-
cent leadership bid underwhelmed
many colleagues, has withdrawn into
the shadows, staying away both from
the press and the conference in Bir-
mingham.
Some have mentioned former
Cabinet Minister Michael Gove — an
outside bet, having been unsuccess-
ful twice before — and even Shapps,
October 6, 2022 Page 6
regarded as competent and a decent
media performer.
Some names are now being
pushed openly on the conference
floor. In another sign of party indis-
cipline, Truss’ recently appointed
Trade Minister Conor Burns told a
fringe event that her former leader-
ship rival Kemi Badenoch was “the
future of our party.”
Still lurking in the background,
too, is Boris Johnson, about whom
rumors of a possible comeback had
begun before he’d even entered of-
fice. Although he too stayed away
from Birmingham, Johnson’s pres-
ence has been keenly felt. Even MPs
who still support Truss were eager to
publicize the fact he’d this week been
named president of the Conservative
Friends of Ukraine.
LOSING THE WILL
But others believe the idea of defenes-
trating Truss so soon is a nonstarter.
“The country would think we were
insane,” said one MP, who observed
that the recency of Johnson’s ousting
was the main thing keeping her safe.
Indeed, a type of fatalism has be-
gun to creep in among some Conser-
vatives who believe that the electoral
wilderness beckons after 12 years in
power.
“People will drift away, they just
won’t care, they know that their seats
are going to go. People will lose the
will to fight,” said the same ex-aide
quoted above.
A former No. 10 official, who
served under all four previous Tory
prime ministers since 2010, added:
“It feels like it’s over — and maybe
that’s healthy. It’s been a long time.”
Already Truss’ options look lim-
ited, given her rapidly shrinking au-
thority over an unruly party. One
idea being floated is a reset of her
No. 10 operation, or even a reshuffle
of the Cabinet she only named one
month ago.
At a fringe event, former Brexit
Minister David Frost said: “The team
around her already needs refreshing,
and maybe some new voices. It’s obvi-
ous the party is a bit disaffected, and
there needs to be some reaching out.”
One senior Cabinet minister sug-
gested Truss could even be forced to
reach for the nuclear option.
“I’ve got a horrible foreboding that
this is the tip of the iceberg,” they
said. “[Her critics] may be a real drag
on her so that she’s in a checkmate
position, where she is forced to go
for an election.”
But another Cabinet minister
guided away from this idea, saying
an election was the last thing most
Tory MPs wanted given the parlous
state of the polls.
They acknowledged the situation
was “hard” but insisted Truss had
the “resilience to get through it” after
eight years at the top of government.
Truss would run Downing Street
“more like a proper office and not like
a court,” said the supportive minister,
contrasting it to Johnson’s No. 10 op-
eration which was run like a “Grace
Brothers department store — differ-
ent people on every floor with their
own little agenda.”
Home Secretary Suella Braverman,
another Truss ally, told POLITICO: “I
just hope that this is the last of Tory
infighting and we can get focused
on the battle ahead … It’s just indul-
gent, a waste of time and very, very
damaging.”
Several MPs posited that Truss’
current predicament was at least
likely to be her lowest ebb, and that
things would surely now improve as
she found space to communicate her
message and as opinion polls lev-
eled out.
Even among the most supportive
MPs, the bar is being set pretty low.
As one put it, the party’s best hope
now was that Truss recovers slightly,
and “leads us to dignified defeat.”
 Page 7 October 6, 2022
HOW THE FAR-RIGHT GOT OUT OF THE DOGHOUSE
Marine le Pen
and Giorgia
Meloni have Shunned for decades as
seen their far- politically poisonous, far-
right parties right parties scored big
move in from
the fringes of
wins this year. Now they’re
politics. in the mainstream.
DENIS CHARLET
AND ALBERTO
PIZZOLI/AFP VIA
BY BARBARA MOENS AND
GETTY IMAGES
CORNELIUS HIRSCH
European far-right politicians just
stormed to victory in Italy, after
achieving historic results in France
and Sweden.
“Everywhere in Europe, people as-
pire to take their destiny back into
their own hands!” said Marine Le
Pen, the leader of France’s far-right
National Rally party.
But if you think there is a new wave
of right-wing radicalism sweeping Eu-
rope, you’d be wrong. Something else
is going on.
Analysis by POLITICO’s Poll of
Polls suggests far-right parties in the
region on average did not increase
their support by even 1 percentage
point between the start of Russia’s
invasion in Ukraine in February and
today.
POLITICO looked at the median
and average increase of all parties
organized in right-wing European
Parliament groups of Identity and
Democracy, the European Conser-
vatives and Reformists or unaffili-
ated parties with political far-right
positions.
Overall, the results indicate that if
an increase in support occurred for
far-right parties, it happened several
years ago.
The Sweden Democrats’ first surge
happened after the 2014 election,
when the party grew from around
10 percent to 20 percent, the same
one-fifth share of the vote they re-
ceived in this year’s election. The far-
right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in
Germany grew fast in 2015 and 2016
reaching 14 percent in POLITICO’s
polling tracker. In Italy, the League
overtook Forza Italia for the first time
in early 2015, and peaked in 2019 at
37 percent before starting a down-
ward trend ending on 9 percent in
last month’s election. In the Italian
election, voters mostly switched be-
tween rival right-wing camps.
The far right has moved from
the fringes of politics into the main-
stream, not only influencing the po-
litical center but also entering the
arena of power.
“There is a normalization of far
right parties as an integral part of
the political landscape,” said Cath-
rine Thorleifsson, who researches
extremism at the University of Oslo.
“They have been accepted by the
electorate and also by other, con-
ventional parties.”
Cooperation between the center-
right and the extreme-right has be-
come less taboo.
“The rise of far-right parties is only
part of the story. The facilitating and
mainstreaming of far-right parties
as well as the adoption of far-right
frames and positions by other par-
ties is at least as important,” tweet-
ed Cas Mudde, a leading scholar on
the issue.
This may risk destabilizing Europe
even more than winning a couple of
percentage points in the polls.
Italy’s far-right firebrand Giorgia
Meloni is a clear-cut example. While
her party draws its origin from groups
founded by former fascists, she’ll now
lead the EU’s third-largest economy.
In Sweden, the center-right par-
ty has started coalition talks for a
minority government which would
have to draw on opposition support,
most likely from the far-right Sweden
Democrats. Far-right parties have also
entered governments in Austria, Fin-
land, Estonia and Italy. Other coun-
tries are likely to follow.
George Simion, the leader of Ro-
mania’s far-right party, Alliance for
the Union of Romanians (AUR), cel-
ebrated Meloni’s win in Italy, saying
his party is likely to follow in their
footsteps.
Spain heads to the ballot box next
year and socialist Prime Minister Pe-
dro Sánchez may have a tough time
winning reelection. The conserva-
tive People’s Party is between 5 and
7 points ahead of the Spanish social-
ists in all the published polls, but it
is unlikely to garner enough votes to
secure a governing majority outright.
That means it may have to come
to an agreement with far-right par-
ty Vox, whose leader, Santiago Abas-
cal, is an ally of Meloni’s. While the
People’s Party previously refused to
govern with Vox, last spring its newly
elected leader, Alberto Núñez-Feijóo,
green-lit a coalition agreement with
the ultranationalist group in Spain’s
central Castilla y León region.
Tom Van Grieken, the right-wing
Belgian politician, also pointed to
Spain as the next likely example, es-
pecially because of the possible co-
operation with the PP. “All over Eu-
rope, we see conservative parties
who are considering breaking the
cordon sanitaire,” he said, referring
to the refusal of other parties to work
with the far-right. “They are tired of
compromising with their ideological
counterparts, the parties at the left
end of the spectrum.”
This didn’t happen overnight.
The far right worked hard to shrug
off their extremist, neo-Nazi image.
“In some of the reporting on the
Swedish Democrats, you’d think
they’ll deport people on trains as
soon as they’re in power. Come
on, these parties have changed,” said
one EU official with right-wing affili-
ations.
The far right invested in “image ad-
justment and trying to tread carefully
with some issues, while unashamedly
catering to others,” said Nina Wiese-
homeier, a political scientist at the IE
University of Madrid. “This is particu-
larly obvious in Italy right now, with
Meloni sticking to the slogan of ‘God,
homeland, family,’ as a continuation,
while having tried to purge the party
from more radical elements.”
In Belgium’s northern region of
Flanders, the right-wing Vlaams Be-
lang (Flemish Interest) explicitly dis-
misses the label “extreme-right.” Just
like his counterparts in Italy, Sweden
and France, Van Grieken, the party’s
News
president, denounced the more ex-
tremist positions of his group’s found-
ing fathers and moderated his politi-
cal message to make voting for the
far right socially acceptable.
Overt racism is taboo. Instead,
the rhetoric changes to criticizing
an open-door migration policy. By
carefully catering to centrist voters,
the far right aims for a bigger slice
of the cake, while still riding on the
anti-establishment discontent.
“There is a clear fault line between
the winners of globalization and the
nationalists,” Van Grieken told POLIT-
ICO. “This comes on top on the con-
cerns about mass migration, whether
it’s in Malmö, Rome or other Euro-
pean cities.”
PERFECT STORM
Now, the time is right to capitalize
on that transformation.
As Europe is battling record infla-
tion and Europeans fear exorbitant
heating bills, governments warn
about the political implications of a
“winter of discontent.”
“It’s a massive drainage of Europe-
an prosperity,” Belgian Prime Minis-
ter Alexander De Croo told POLITICO
recently. “In the current situation, it’s
hard to believe in progress, it’s very
hard to make progress. So there’s a
very pessimistic feeling.”
The current war in Ukraine is the
latest in a succession of crises — in
global finance, migration and the pan-
demic. Experts argue that this is key
to understanding the rising support
for the far right.
“Such existential crises have a de-
stabilizing effect and lead to fear,”
said Carl Devos, a professor in polit-
ical science at Ghent University. “Fear
is the breeding ground for the far-
right. People tend to translate that
fear and outrage into radical voting
behaviour.”
Migration and identity politics are
less prominent in the media because
of the Ukraine war and rising energy
prices, but they’re still key issues in
right-wing debate.
In Austria, the coalition parties
fought over whether or not asy-
lum seekers should receive climate
bonuses. In the Netherlands, the
death of a baby at the asylum cen-
ter Ter Apel led to a renewed debate
over the overcrowded migration
centers.
The combination of those issues
is likely to feed into more right-wing
wins across the continent. “The far-
right offers nationalist, protectionist
solutions to the globalized crises, said
Thorleifsson. “We see how the migra-
tion issue was momentarily off the
agenda during the pandemic, but
now it’s back.”
Aitor Hernández-Morales, Camille Gijs
and Ana Fota contributed reporting.
 News

MEN AND Men and women make

different travel choices —
more likely to choose alternatives to
cars when they’re available.
If men traveled like women, the

THEIR CARS: understanding those is key

to achieving pollution and
study suggested, Sweden’s emissions
from passenger transport would de-
crease by nearly 20 percent.

CITIES AIM climate targets Other studies point in a similar di-

rection: A 2019 Eurobarometer sur-
vey commissioned by the European

TO BREAK BY GIOVANNA COI

Parliament found that, while the car
is the preferred mobility option regard-
less of gender, women are more likely

UP THE Cutting back on traffic in cities will than men to walk or use public trans-
mean putting an end to a long-stand- port. Another recent poll found that
ing love affair — between men and women cycle more often than men in
their cars. cities with safe cycling infrastructure,

LOVE AFFAIR As city leaders look to reduce their

“We’ve had movies that ask
‘What Women Want’ ... When
it comes to mobility, cities
need to try to understand
what men want ... That’s
the only way to draw them
towards public transport
or cycling or walking.”
ANA DRĂGUȚESCU, COORDINATOR
FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY AND
TRANSPORT AT ICLEI EUROPE
Leading advocate of motoring,
Jeremy Clarkson, while shooting an
episode of “Top Gear” in Romania.
ANA POENARIU/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
carbon footprint and hit ambitious
net-zero targets, many are investing
millions into green mobility infra-
structure and implementing plans
to ban cars from city centers.
Those measures will only work if
cities can get the public on board, and
experts warn that local authorities
are overlooking a major factor: the
role that gender plays in how people
move around.
“Men and women travel in differ-
ent ways — and this is true through-
out Europe,” said Linda Gustafsson,
gender equality officer for the Swed-
ish city of Umeå. “Men drive cars to a
higher extent, while women use pub-
lic transportation or bike or walk.”
Of course, some men favor public
transport and some women prefer
to travel by gas-guzzler, but research
shows that on average men and wom-
en do tend to travel differently.
A 2020 study commissioned by
Sweden’s innovation agency found
that while women and men make
roughly the same number of trips in
a day, men travel longer distances
and tend to favor their cars. Women
tend to include more stops into their
journeys — to combine family, work
and social responsibilities — and are
like in the Netherlands and Denmark.
With women already more likely
to opt for sustainable mobility op-
tions, the real challenge is to con-
vince men to change their mobility
habits. But doing so is more easily
said than done.
Most cities were designed by men
and designed to accommodate cars;
in many places, taking the car is still
the easiest option. Car ownership has
also long been a symbol of material
wealth, social status and indepen-
dence — and tightly bound up in ideas
of masculinity, said Ana Drăguțescu,
coordinator for sustainable mobility
and transport at ICLEI Europe.
“When we talk about the car’s
place in urban planning and trans-
port planning we talk about it as a
rational thing,” said Malene Freud-
endal-Pedersen, professor of urban
planning at Aalborg University. “But
there are actually a lot of emotions
caught up in that car.”
FLIPPING THE SCRIPT
Some cities are already taking steps
to change those dynamics — but it
isn’t easy.
Inspired by the findings of Swe-
den’s 2020 study on men and wom-
en’s mobility patterns, the city of Umeå

GREEN
Unveiling event 

OCTOBER 12 This is POLITICO’s first ranking of the power players behind the
FROM 4:30 P.M. TO 5:50 P.M. CEST bloc’s green agenda — arguably the continent’s most far-reaching
transformation since the Industrial Revolution.

Confirmed speakers:

Register for online Pascal Canfin,

attendance today MEP (Renew Europe Group & France), chair of the ENVI Committee

Sigrid de Vries,
director general, The European Automobile Manufacturers’
Association (ACEA)

William Todts,
executive-director, Transport & Environment (T&E)

launched a project to tackle car use in
its industrial district, Västerslätt.
The neighborhood, like many
industrial areas around Europe, is
“built for cars, and men in cars,” said
Anna Gemzell, development strate-
gist for the municipality.
Its sidewalks are narrow and there
are few pedestrian crossings; cyclists
have to contend with heavy car and
truck traffic and don’t have easy ac-
cess to secure parking for their bikes.
“In the city, it’s understood that
cyclists have the right of way. Cars
stop, drivers nod and let you cross.
Here, cars go a lot faster. They own
the street,” said Gemzell.
When the city interviewed people
who commute to work by car, many
said the area was too difficult to reach
by public transport. But they also ad-
mitted they were unlikely to use pub-
lic transport even if it was available.
“Some people [in the interviews]
say that, ‘Oh, you don’t go by bus.
You just don’t, as a man,’” said Gem-
zell. “Even if we improved bus traffic,
we’re not sure that that would help.”
Rather than pump more money
into new infrastructure and hope that
people would use it, Umeå set out to
actively incentivize car users to make
the switch. It partnered with local
employers to offer perks to employ-
ees who changed their commuting
habits; some companies even went so
far as to grant an additional week of
holiday to employees who frequently
cycle to work.
“We can build hundreds of kilo-
meters of bike lanes,” said Gemzell.
“But if no one uses them, then it’s a
waste of money.”
WHAT DO MEN WANT?
The Brussels region has come to a
similar realization and started to
specifically target men in its ad cam-
paigns to increase bike use.
The role of renewables in a world
without Russian energy
Tuesday, The EU’s long-term plan is to be climate neutral by 2050. That goal now
October 11 also has a political dimension following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and
from 11:00 a.m. to subsequent gas shutoffs. Does the current geopolitical situation create a
11:45 a.m. CEST long-term boost for renewable energy?
@LivePOLITICO Confirmed speakers:
using #EnergyVisions
Dries Acke, policy director, SolarPower Europe
REGISTER TODAY
Jonas Helseth, director, Bellona Europa
Bernd Kuepker, policy officer, decarbonisation and sustainability of
energy sources, unit C.2, DG ENER, European Commission
MEP Morten Petersen, (Renew Europe, Denmark), member of the ITRE
Committee
PRESENTED BY
October 6, 2022 Page 9
“We wanted to target those who had
never thought about cycling and those
who didn’t know many people who
would inspire them to do so,” said Sofie
Walschap, manager at Bike for Brus-
sels, the initiative to promote bike use
in the capital region. “And that group
includes way more men than women.”
As part of the initiative, the local
administration launched BrusselsFit,
a campaign that touts cycling as a way
to get fit and rebrands the city’s cy-
cle paths as “the largest gym in Brus-
sels.” Its promotional video features
a middle-aged white collar employee
who, tired of working out in soulless
gyms and spending his time stuck in
commuter traffic, hops on a bike and
regains a sense of freedom.
The campaign, whose posters also
predominantly feature men, went
hand in hand with major investments
in sustainable mobility, including ex-
panded bike infrastructure. “We’ve
done the work,” said Walschap, “so
there are no more excuses.”
Targeted, positive messaging can
help to counterbalance more “pu-
nitive measures” like speed lim-
its and car-free zones, said ICLEI’s
Drăguțescu.
The difficulty is figuring out what
kind of initiatives will work, she not-
ed, as many cities haven’t collected
data to help them understand how
men and women move through cit-
ies differently — and what is keeping
men, specifically, in their cars.
“We’ve had movies that ask ‘What
Women Want,’” she said. “When it
comes to mobility cities need to try
to understand what men want ... That’s
the only way to draw them towards
public transport or cycling or walking.”
This article is part of POLITICO’s
Global Policy Lab: Living Cities, a col-
laborative journalism project exploring
the future of cities.
 Working Group
EUROPE’S GROWING MENTAL HEALTH CARE GAP
The pandemic’s impact
on mental health services
drove up demand for care,
while eroding an already
short-staffed, burnt out
health workforce
BY SARAH-TAÏSSIR BENCHARIF
Europe has some catching up to do
when it comes to addressing unmet
needs in mental health.
In many places, the surge in de-
mand for mental health care over-
shadows the available services, with
the coronavirus pandemic revealing
and exacerbating a critical — and wid-
ening — gap in care.
It’s a costly matter.
Worldwide, around 12 billion work
days are lost every year due to de-
pression and anxiety, costing almost
$1 trillion, according to a report last
month by the World Health Organi-
zation and the International Labour
Organization.
In European countries, the eco-
nomic costs of mental ill health can
exceed 4 percent of gross domestic
product (GDP), according to the Or-
ganisation for Economic Co-opera-
tion and Development. These are
driven by reduced productivity and
participation in the labor market,
as well as direct costs outside of the
health system, such as in social se-
curity programs.
But for many in Europe, access
to mental health care services is a
challenge, one that’s on the European
Commission’s radar.
Last month, Commission President
Ursula von der Leyen announced the
Commission is working on a new ini-
tiative on mental health, underscor-
ing the importance of having “appro-
priate, accessible … and affordable
support.”
Worldwide, For many Europeans with mental
around 12 health concerns, it’s a plan that can’t
billion work come soon enough.
days are lost
BIG NEEDS
every year due
to depression The coronavirus pandemic contin-
and anxiety, ues to have a substantial impact on
costing almost people’s mental health.
$1 trillion. The estimated prevalence of anxi-
ety and depression in France, for in-
ISTOCK
stance, nearly doubled in early 2020,
according to Doron Wijker, policy re-
search officer at the OECD’s Direc-
torate for Employment, Labour and
Social Affairs.
More recent figures suggest the
situation is not yet back to its pre-
pandemic levels, either. According to
survey data from May 2022, though
self-reported symptoms of depres-
sion have been decreasing at a gen-
eral population level, 15 percent of
France’s population still show in-
dications of depression, compared
with 10 percent before the pandem-
ic, Wijker said. And when it comes
to anxiety, one in four people in
France shows indications of anxiety
compared with 14 percent before the
pandemic.
“While estimates of the prevalence
of anxiety and depression provide an
incomplete window into the mental
health and well-being of a population,
these figures demonstrate the magni-
tude of the challenge,” Wijker told a
recent POLITICO working group on
mental health in France.
The mental health of young people
across many European countries has
taken a particular hit; in many, young
people reported symptoms of depres-
sion at rates nearly double those of
the general population, she said.
The pandemic’s impact on mental
health services was a double-wham-
my: It simultaneously drove up the
need for the services, all the while
PRESENTED BY
eroding an already short-staffed,
burnt-out health workforce.
Many health care workers are leav-
ing the field due to their own poor
mental health, said Natasha Azzopar-
di Muscat, director of the division of
country health policies and systems
at WHO/Europe, during this year’s
European Health Forum Gastein.
Already, countries in the WHO’s
European Region are having to
deal with insufficient recruitment
of health workers in mental health
services, according to WHO/Europe.
All this could spell further trouble
for patients’ access to care.
LONG WAITS
Backlogs and long wait times for men-
tal health services were already a sig-
nificant issue long before the pan-
demic.
Across the OECD, even before the
crisis, two out of three people seeking
mental health care reported difficulty
accessing it, Wijker said.
And within the bloc, mental health
care ranks as one of the most unmet
health needs, according to an April
2021 report from Eurofound.
These days, the wait time in France
to see a child and adolescent psychi-
atrist, for instance, is between six
months and two years, according
to Bruno Falissard, psychiatrist and
former president of the International
Association for Child and Adolescent
Psychiatry and Allied Professions.
Though kids and teens make up
about 20 percent of the French pop-
ulation, there are only about 500
psychiatrists catering to this group,
compared with around 10,000 adult
psychiatrists, Falissard told the work-
ing group.
The gap in mental health care pro-
vision did not arise overnight.
“We have a historical situation
of underinvestment, and this is not
a French problem — this is a global
problem, and the needs are increas-
ing and the offer is decreasing,” said
Frank Bellivier, ministerial delegate
for mental health and psychiatry at
France’s Ministry of Health and Pre-
vention.
October 6, 2022 Page 10
The coronavirus pandemic pushed
countries to urgently look for ways
to try to mitigate care gaps in health
care, and some of those may be here
to stay.
For one, there was a surge in the
use of telemedicine and digital health
services, including for mental health.
A key lesson from the COVID cri-
sis, Bellivier said, is that telepsychia-
try works.
“We observed a huge development
of telemedicine in psychiatry and I
think this is a positive experience,
both from the health professional
point of view but also from the pa-
tients’ and families’ point of view,”
he said.
But the experience also raised im-
portant concerns and challenges, in-
cluding on the issue of access and the
need to train health professionals and
users of such technologies on what
can be reasonably expected from tele-
medicine and digital tools, he said.
Digital technologies have the po-
tential to reduce the high unmet
needs for care. But in order to en-
sure their positive growth is sus-
tained, they must be integrated into
the broader mental health system,
said the OECD’s Wijker.
And with the proliferation of free-
ly-available digital tools and apps,
quality assurance is a key issue, she
said.
“A number of countries are taking
a more proactive role in this space,
for example by assessing which digi-
tal therapies can be covered under
existing psychological therapy pro-
grams,” she said.
This article is part of POLITICO’s “Evo-
lution of health care” series which is
presented by Janssen. It is the product
of a working group and was produced
with full editorial independence by 
POLITICO reporters and editors. Learn
more about editorial content presented
by outside advertisers at www.politico.
eu/frequently-asked-questions
 Through the Evolution of Health Care series of events and articles, we
explore what is needed to fuel future discovery, development and delivery of
transformational medicines and health systems that will lead to better patient
outcomes and more resilient societies in the future.

Now is the time for new collaborations between governments, the

pharmaceutical industry, academic institutions, and patient groups.

Follow our journey at

www.politico.eu/evolution-of-health-care

CP-266149 October 2021

 News
Scholz
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 5
second-biggest and third-biggest
economies. Strictly speaking, com-
missioners are not meant to act as
emissaries of their home countries
but the protests from Gentiloni and
Breton perfectly mirror the argu-
ments from Rome and Paris.
The Franco-Italian complaint
against Germany is that Berlin will
distort the EU’s hallowed common
market by putting state-funded Ger-
man companies at an unfair advan-
tage over rivals, which is all the more
galling for critics who argue that Ber-
lin was a leading architect of the ener-
gy crisis by establishing a dependence
on Moscow’s gas export monopoly
Gazprom.
Gentiloni and Breton lobbed their
grenade against Scholz on Monday
night, by penning an op-ed for a series
of newspapers calling for solidarity
and a common European approach to
solving the energy crisis. Just days be-
fore this week’s EU summit in Prague,
they called for “mutualized tools at
the European level” — which seemed
to suggest the sort of jointly guaran-
teed loans that were used to help in
the coronavirus pandemic.
Seeking to douse the flames
but effectively admitting that the
French and Italian commissioners
had gone rogue, a European Com-
mission spokesperson said: “Op-eds
are personal initiatives of the relevant
commissioners,” the spokesman said.
“They do not commit the Commis-
Strasbourg
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 5
time. This will be the “main thrust”
of Metsola’s discussions at the infor-
mal EU leaders’ meeting this week
in Prague, where energy policies will
be a major focus, the spokesperson
added.
The spokesperson also pointed to
Parliament’s other measures to re-
duce consumption, such as lower-
ing the temperature within buildings
during winter. Parliament has also
scrapped millions of euros worth of
renovations to its facilities — includ-
ing plans for new carpet and a bar.
Then again, as temperatures con-
tinue to drop and public pressure
on politicians rises, the prospect
of shuffling between two minimally
heated buildings in need of refurbish-
ing some 400 kilometers apart may
prompt further MEP complaints.
Liese’s argument, for instance, has
been garnering support from groups
across the political spectrum, like
Martin Schirdewan, co-chairman of
The Left Group, who argued the two
seats were problematic even before
the energy crisis.
“The traveling circus has always
been unecological, wasted tax mon-
ey and cost valuable working time,”
Schirdewan said, adding that “it’s fi-
nally time to put an end to this once
and for all.”
The Greens’ Daniel Freund has
been a vocal advocate of halting the
trek, also sending a letter to Metsola
two months ago pressing her on the
issue. Freund told POLITICO that
heating and lighting “two huge of-
fice complexes” while millions of Eu-
ropeans worry about their next gas
bills “is not acceptable,” saying the
monthly trip to Strasbourg should
stop “until the energy crisis is over.”
Freund’s group leader, Ska Keller,
said there must be “more measures
... taken to further reduce any unnec-
essary energy use,” adding that “it is
sion.”
While distancing von der Leyen
from the Franco-Italian op-ed, the
spokesman added the Commission
president was separately insisting
on the need to protect the common
market and for “European solutions.”
The tensions will come to a head
at a meeting of the College of Com-
missioners on Wednesday — a rare
instance of commissioners meeting
twice in one week, although Wednes-
day’s is a video call. Von der Leyen
skipped Tuesday’s weekly meeting of
commissioners in Strasbourg, which
was instead led by Commission Vice
President Margrethe Vestager, in or-
der to meet French President Em-
manuel Macron in Paris for talks.
The big question now is whether
Paris and Rome mobilize in earnest
and whether von der Leyen can hold
back that tide. Valdis Dombrovskis, the
European Commission vice president
responsible for the economy, is cer-
tainly holding a tough line and is push-
ing back against the idea of joint debt.
IMMOVABLE OBJECT
As the disquiet spreads among other
EU countries about the German pro-
posal, Chancellor Olaf Scholz struck
a defiant note on Tuesday.
Speaking alongside Dutch Prime
Minister Mark Rutte, Scholz defended
the proposal as “a very balanced, very
smart and very decisive package.”
He added that “perhaps not ev-
erybody realized immediately” that
the €200 billion was not just for this
year, but for 2023 and 2024 as well,
noting that Germany had been forced
to bail out large energy companies
like Uniper.
important to consider all possibilities
to further reduce any unnecessary
energy use.” But Keller stopped short
of backing Freund’s suggestion.
Geert Bourgeois from the Euro-
pean Conservatives and Reformists
group called the back-and-forth a
“textbook example of duplication
and inefficient governance,” adding
that “these temporary relocations
cost a lot of money” and fly in “total
contradiction with the sustainabili-
ty finger-wagging that the EP always
raises.” Bourgeois estimated such
travel accounts for about 20,000
tons of CO2 emissions on an annual
Scholz’s pushback captures the
clash between the German govern-
ment’s domestic concerns and his ap-
parent willingness to ignore the pleas
of his European partners. With ener-
gy prices sky-rocketing and inflation
at runaway levels, the German gov-
ernment is acutely aware that there’s
much to play for in Lower Saxony,
where Scholz’s Social Democratic
Party is looking to maintain its con-
trol of the region.
Scholz’s skepticism about an EU-
wide measure was echoed by German
Finance Minister Christian Lindner
at Tuesday’s meeting of finance min-
isters in Luxembourg. “We are open
to discussing other instruments, but
this crisis is very different from the
corona pandemic,” he said.
Sven Giegold, a state secretary
at the Green-led German economy
ministry, also sought to defend the
spending by arguing that others like
France were introducing price caps.
“We have not even defined how the
famous €200 billion package will be
used. But, German industry keeps
complaining to us that their offers
are undercut by European competi-
tors which are profiting from energy
price caps,” he said.
Those in favor of a new EU-wide
instrument noted that the language
in the Gentiloni-Breton opinion
piece was deliberately vague, allow-
ing room for discussion on what pre-
cisely a “mutualized tool” could be.
But given the sensitivity of the idea
of fresh common debt issuance, the
model being proposed is more like-
ly to be based on SURE, the COVID-
era program that granted businesses
loans on favorable terms, which Gen-
basis.
There’s a divide over the subject
within the Renew Europe group,
which is closely linked to Macron.
German MEP Moritz Körner com-
plained that “heating and lighting two
blocks of buildings simultaneously in
Brussels and Strasbourg is a mockery
of taxpayers,” and he added that CO-
VID arrangements proved Parliament
can function without the Strasbourg
journey.
But a spokesperson for Renew
Europe’s group leader Stéphane Se-
journé, from France, complained that
the Greens and others are taking a
October 6, 2022 Page 12
tiloni suggested at Tuesday’s meeting
of finance ministers.
Scholz suggested on Tuesday that
there are still funds left in the COV-
“I think the
ID-era Next Generation EU fund that challenge
could be used in a crisis — a view that
could gain support within the Com-
that we
mission, given the wariness of some have is
commissioners to open up a whole
new layer of European Commission
that some
bureaucracy to deal with the energy
crisis.
countries
The row over Germany’s strategy have deeper
is likely to dominate Friday’s meeting
of EU leaders in Prague. In advance of
pockets
that, Scholz will have an opportunity than others
to try to sell his plan to Spanish Prime
Minister Pedro Sánchez when the two
to deal with
meet in A Coruña on Wednesday.
Multiple officials said the move by
the current
Breton and Gentiloni could be an at- crisis.
tempt to kickstart the conversation GEORG
about an EU-response to the crisis, ZACHMANN OF
and perhaps a tactic to help pressure THE BRUEGEL
THINK TANK
Germany to support a gas price cap,
an idea that has been pushed in par-
ticular by Italy for months.
However effective the joint push
by Gentiloni and Breton proves to be,
the controversy has shown, according
to Georg Zachmann from the Bruegel
think tank, the need for a common
EU approach to the energy crisis, as
he warned against a “subsidy race”
between countries.
“I think the challenge that we have
is that some countries have deeper
pockets than others to deal with the
current crisis. A very uneven reso-
lution to the crisis might make mat-
ters worse by kicking off a subsidy
race between countries … I think a
more European approach makes a
lot of sense.”
“maximalist approach of teleworking MEPs during
and remote voting,” saying “a vibrant a plenary
continental democracy of 27 member session at
states requires mobility and physical the European
meetings.” Parliament in
“Questioning the seat of Stras- Strasbourg.
bourg is a false good idea,” Sejourné’s
FREDERICK
spokesperson said, arguing carbon FLORIN/AFP VIA
emissions and electricity consump- GETTY IMAGES
tion would not be reduced but rather
relocated elsewhere. Plus, the spokes-
person said, the Strasbourg building
is “more energy efficient than the
ones in Brussels.”
Barbara Moens contributed reporting.
 Page 13 October 6, 2022
Russia is historically the top country for Schengen visas
Pre-pandemic, more than 4 million short-term visas were issued at Schengen area consulates in Russia. That is more than a quarter of the total amount of short-term visas issued by Schengen area
consulates in 2019.
Short-term Uniform Schengen Visas issued by consulates
In share of total visas by location of consulate, in 2019
Russia 27%
China 19%
India 7%
Turkey 5%
Belarus 4%
Morocco 4%
Algeria 3%
Saudi Arabia 2%
Thailand 2%
U.K. 2%
Others 25%
0%
Figures include multi-entry visas. All charts refer only to short-stay Uniform Schengen Visas applied for at consulates of the 26 Schengen states (EU countries and Schengen Associated Countries) in Russia.
Source: European Commission
PRO BRIEF
EN ER GY A N D C L I M AT E
Leaders to press for
gas-price options
EU leaders gathering in Prague on
October 7 will ask the European
Commission for “workable
solutions” to cap the price of
imported natural gas, according
to a draft statement obtained by
POLITICO. The informal European
Council follows two meetings of
energy ministers in September,
who had also asked for policy
options on an EU-wide measure
to lower gas prices. Last week the
Commission discouraged such
a price cap in an informal policy
paper. The draft statement invites
Brussels to work on four urgent
energy policy issues.
MOBILIT Y
TRAN Committee
cements AFIR position
The European Parliament’s
Transport and Tourism Committee
on October 3 adopted its
position on the Alternative
Fuels Infrastructure Regulation
(AFIR), the EU’s plan to ensure
charging and refueling points
are built across the bloc. The
text got the support of 36 MEPs;
two lawmakers opposed it and
six abstained. The committee’s
compromise calls for higher power
output requirements when the
uptake of EVs is still limited and
for charging stations along the
entire EU transport network by
2025.
Transport spills
on land: 7.9%
10% 20%
AG R I C U LT U R E A N D F O O D
Piet Adema becomes
Dutch farm minister
The Dutch government appointed
Piet Adema as the new minister of
agriculture, nature and food quality,
amid continued discontent over
plans to cut livestock herds and
fertilizer usage and buy out farms
in order to reduce environmental
pollution from farming. Adema,
57, takes over from Deputy Prime
Minister Carola Schouten, who had
been filling in for Henk Staghouwer,
the former farm chief who resigned
last month amid mass protests
by farmers disgruntled about the
government’s ambition to slash
nitrogen emissions in half by 2030.
Adema hails from the Christian
Union party.
H E A LT H C A R E
EU scraps COVID-
related antitrust rules
The European Commission is
scrapping a temporary antirust
framework it set up during the
coronavirus pandemic that
allowed for companies to work
together to avoid shortages of
key products and services. The
framework was adopted in April
2020 and allowed the Commission
to give companies so-called
comfort letters to address specific
projects. The Commission on
October 3 said the exceptional
circumstances that would justify
cooperation between companies
to tackle the crisis had passed.
Short-stay Schengen visas issued at consulates in Russia
In number of visas per year
6M
4M
2M
0
2009 2010 2011
COMPETITION
Court cancels Apple,
Amazon antitrust fine
An Italian administrative court
scrapped a €173.3 million antitrust
fine the Italian competition
authority had slapped on Amazon
and Apple for allegedly colluding
to restrict access on Amazon’s
Italian marketplace for resellers
of Apple and Beats products.
The Italian court said October 3
that the authority violated the
company’s right to defense, as it
didn’t give them enough time to
prepare. “Such excessive brevity
is … unjustified given the overall
duration and relevance of the
proceedings,” the court said,
referring to the time given to the
companies.
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POLICY PRO?
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reporting, customizable alerts
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pro@politico.eu
EN ER GY A N D C L I M AT E
Head of Zaporizhzhia
nuclear plant released
The U.N.’s nuclear safety watchdog
confirmed October 3 that the head
of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear
power plant has been released
following his detention by Russian
forces. “I welcome the release
of Ihor Murashov,” International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
boss Rafael Grossi said in a tweet.
“I have received confirmation
that Mr. Murashov has returned
to his family safely.” Murashov
was arrested by Russian patrols
on the afternoon of September
30, according to Ukraine’s
state-owned energy company
Energoatom.
2014: Russia
invades
Crimea
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MOBILIT Y
TRAN adopts FuelEU
Maritime position
The European Parliament’s
Transport and Tourism Committee
on October 3 adopted its position
on FuelEU Maritime, a planned
initiative to boost the uptake
of alternative fuels in maritime
transport. The position passed
by a vote of 36 in favor, six
against and two abstentions. The
initiative, part of the Fit for 55
climate package, would force ships
to gradually lower the greenhouse
gas intensity of the energy they
use. The TRAN compromise
copies the Commission’s proposed
scope, but adds exemptions for
outermost regions and small
islands.
C Y B ER S E C U R I T Y
Deal on criminal data
sharing imminent
MEPs and national governments
are expected to reach a political
deal on the e-Evidence Regulation
on October 19, according to two
people familiar with the talks.
Negotiations on the framework,
which is designed to make it
easier for national authorities
to compel companies in other
EU countries to hand over data
linked to criminal investigations,
have been ongoing since 2018.
Talks had stalled in part because
of concerns over countries with
rule-of-law issues like Hungary
having direct access to personal
data held in other EU member
countries.
News
2020:
Coronavirus
pandemic
2018 2019 2020 2021
By George Arnett/POLITICO Pro DataPoint
T E C H N O LO GY
EU governments adopt
Digital Services Act
European Union governments
on October 4 gave final approval
to the EU’s Digital Services Act
(DSA), pushing the content-
moderation law one step closer
to becoming reality. All 27 EU
finance ministers voted the law
through. The European Parliament
and Council will sign the law on
October 29. The DSA will then be
published in the Official Journal
and enter into force 20 days
later. In early 2023, companies
like Meta’s Facebook, Google’s
YouTube, Twitter and Amazon
will have to publicly disclose their
number of users in the EU.
T E C H N O LO GY
Donelan vows to break
free from GDPR
U.K. digital secretary Michelle
Donelan on October 3 promised
to do away with the General
Data Protection Regulation
inherited from the EU. Speaking
at the governing Conservative
Party conference in Birmingham,
Donelan devoted a significant
portion of her speech to railing
against the GDPR. She pledged
to replace the GDPR with a new
“business and consumer-friendly,
British data protection system.” It
is unclear how much further the
new government of Prime Minister
Liz Truss intends to go than
previous reform proposals.
Commentary
THE FIGHT FOR ABORTION AC
Meloni’s promises must
be weighed against
her actions, her party’s
policies, and those of her
close allies — all of which
paint a different picture
BY GIULIA BLASI
IN ROME
When questioned about her views
on abortion rights, Brothers of Italy
leader Giorgia Meloni replied that
she intends to give women “the
right to not have an abortion.”
Meloni — on track to become
the first female prime minister in
the country’s history — has also
said she intends to “fully enforce”
Law 194, which protects abortion
access.
This choice of words may have
reassured some of the electorate,
who otherwise would not have vot-
ed for a transparently anti-choice
party. But her words must also be
weighed against her actions, her
party’s policies at the local level,
as well as those of her close allies —
all of which paint a rather different
picture.
As it currently stands, in or-
der to obtain an abortion, Italian
women must undergo a medical
examination, observe a seven-day
waiting period and sustain a man-
datory counseling session aimed at
helping remove “any obstacles” to
carrying the pregnancy to term.
This provision, which sees the
will of the pregnant person as
subordinate to public interest in
their fertility, temporarily places
women’s bodily autonomy on hold,
subjecting it to the community’s
decision. This is then compounded
by the alarming number of consci-
entious objectors in hospitals and
clinics all over the country — the
national average is calculated to be
around 70 percent.
Thus, in several regions and
even large cities — especially in the
South — a safe and legal termina-
tion is impossible to obtain due
to a lack of health care providers
willing to carry out the procedure.
Notably, the aforementioned Law
194 protects conscientious objec-
tion on condition that it doesn’t
lead to a disruption of service, but
it doesn’t set a maximum number
of objectors per hospital or clinic.
It’s also important to note that
this law doesn’t actually protect
the right to abortion. While the
spirit of the bill, which was signed
into law in 1978 and has remained
untouched since, was to ensure
that any woman who wanted an
abortion could obtain one, its final
formulation describes its goal as
“protect[ing] human life from its
inception.”
Frustratingly, it’s near impos-
sible to obtain any official data
on the state of abortion access at
the local level in Italy, particularly
since health care is managed at
the regional level, and each region
enjoys considerable autonomy. Au-
thors Chiara Lalli and Sonia Mon-
tegiove tried to piece together the
facts in their 2022 book “Mai Dati,”
chronicling their failure to come
up with a comprehensive picture
of the state of reproductive health
care services in the country, as well
as the reticence they encountered
in their attempt.
However, these problems aren’t
necessarily new. During the recent
tenure of center-left Minister of
Health Roberto Speranza, no official
investigation was launched to fix the
problem and ensure women could
access the procedure or be pre-
scribed RU-486 — an abortion medi-
cation that makes it possible for
women to terminate a pregnancy in
the early stages, safely and at home.
Several Italian regions run by a
center-right or right-wing admin-
istrations — Piedmont, Umbria,
Abruzzo and Le Marche among
them — have severely limited the
distribution of this medication in

CCESS IN ITALY CONTINUES
family planning clinics, or have
restricted its use to a mandatory
three-day hospital admission.
However, after the September
25 elections, any changes to fix the
problem of abortion access appears
unlikely.
For example, Le Marche is cur-
rently governed by Francesco
Acquaroli, a member of Meloni’s
Brothers of Italy, who explicitly op-
poses abortion on grounds that it
would lead to the “ethnic replace-
ment” of Italian people. White
women, it appears, should be
forced to have more babies in or-
der to maintain white supremacy.
This line of increasing births by
discouraging women from termi-
nating unwanted or unplanned
pregnancies has also been echoed
by Letizia Moratti, a former min-
ister under Silvio Berlusconi and
potential center-right candidate for
governor of Lombardy.
When asked about her views
on conscientious objection in the
region — which is at around 60 per-
cent — Moratti dodged the question
by citing Italy’s declining birth rate,
calling abortion “a wound and a
painful decision,” and declaring
her support for a full application
of the law to support women who
may feel financially insecure. She’s
currently serving as Lombardy’s re-
gional councilor for welfare.
Doubling down on this angle, in
recent days, members of Brothers
of Italy’s regional administration
in Liguria outlined a proposal for a
law, which would further support
and increase the presence of
anti-choice activists in hospitals,
with the aim of dissuading women
from terminating unwanted preg-
nancies.
Meanwhile, at the national level,
on September 16, 2022, the leaders
of the incoming governing coali-
tion — Meloni for Brothers of Italy,
Matteo Salvini for the League and
Silvio Berlusconi for Forza Italia —
officially committed to promoting
the anti-choice manifesto present-
ed by the conservative organiza-
tion Pro Vita & Famiglia.
Pro Vita is a powerful and osten-
sibly well-funded pressure group
that has already seen several of its
members elected to parliament.
It’s also one of the forces behind
the presence of anti-choice volun-
teers in hospitals and family plan-
ning clinics all over the country.
Women who have spoken to me
on condition of anonymity
describe being subjected to con-
siderable — and often intolerable
— psychological pressure at the
hands of the health care providers
who performed their mandatory
medical and psychological exami-
nations.
Some were told outright lies and
were traumatized. Others were
offered money from anonymous
donors to carry their pregnancies
to term.
Anti-choice activists also often
point out that those who do not
wish to become mothers can still
carry a pregnancy to term and put
the baby up for adoption. A choice
October 6, 2022 Page 15
Protestors
gathered
in Rome on
September
28 to mark
the annual
international
Safe Abortion
Day.
ALBERTO PIZZOLI/
AFP VIA GETTY
IMAGES
that, while entirely possible, is
likely a lot more traumatic for the
pregnant person than an abortion
— not least because Italian legisla-
tion doesn’t contemplate open
adoption, making it impossible for
birth mothers of adopted children
to maintain a relationship.
Reproductive rights activists in
Italy have long been campaigning
for a reform of Law 194, a reform
that hardly would have passed dur-
ing the most recent legislature due
to its mostly social-conservative
majority. And they have good rea-
son to believe that the incoming
right-wing government will actively
fight abortion access by leveraging
the law’s multiple weaknesses.
It seems that, inevitably, the fight
will return to the streets once more.
Giulia Blasi is a writer and activist
based in Rome, and the author of the
feminist primer “Manuale per ragazze
rivoluzionarie” (Rizzoli, 2018) and
“Rivoluzione Z” (Rizzoli, 2020), and
“Brutta” (Rizzoli, 2022).
 Opinion
UKRAINE: THE CRITICAL
MOMENT HAS ARRIVED
Putin has BY MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY
laid all his
cards on the WHEN DECLARING THE AN-
table — and NEXATION of Ukraine’s Luhansk,
we mustn’t Donetsk, and parts of the Zapor-
be cowed by izhzhia and Kherson regions on
the bluster of Friday, Russian President Vladimir
a bully who Putin showed characteristic con-
knows he’s tempt for the truth. The announce-
losing ment followed sham referendums
reflecting Putin’s brand of democ-
racy — where voting takes place at
gunpoint and the outcome is pre-
determined.
Delivered amid deranged bom-
bast regarding the “satanic” West,
this was Putin’s latest attempt to
regain the initiative and deflect
attention from the fact that he’s
losing his disastrous war — to a hu-
miliating extent. Announcing the
mobilization of 300,000 reserve
troops last week was as close as he
could come to admitting he’s los-
ing. And the now familiar threats
to use nuclear weapons can also be
seen in this context.
Evidently, the critical moment
has arrived.
Putin has laid all his cards on the
table — and we mustn’t be cowed
by the bluster of a bully who knows
he’s losing. Instead, we must inten-
sify support for Ukraine and give
it what it needs to ensure Putin’s
defeat. Simultaneously, the West
must also take steps to support and
incentivize members of the Russian
population dissenting from the
Kremlin’s latest abominations, to
hasten his defeat at home.
As it stands, Putin’s forces are
now incapable of holding the line
without massive reinforcements.
According to some estimates,
since the start of the invasion, the
total of Russia’s fallen and wound-
ed could be as high as 100,000 to
150,000 — roughly the size of the
total initial invasion force. And Rus-
sia’s generals have repeatedly, even
publicly, insisted they cannot ac-
complish the goals they have been
given without a serious increase in
personnel. Their desperation be-
came clear when footage emerged
of Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin
scouring Russian prisons for con-
tract fighters to enlist.
And though the new mobiliza-
tion answers the generals’ request,
it creates a whole host of other
problems — both military and po-
litical.
Up until now, Russian society’s
support for the war in Ukraine
could be defined as “apathetic

non-interference.” It was a matter
for the Kremlin to deal with, and
it didn’t affect them directly. But
the mobilization has blown this
wide open, sending shock waves
throughout the population.
Previously, authorities had been
able to balance the not-entirely-vol-
untary use of conscripts with the
offer of generous handouts if they
were wounded or killed. For this
purpose, they started with those
from Russia’s poor periphery, but
they’ve now exhausted this pool of
cannon fodder.
After mobilization, the war in
Ukraine is no longer something far
away for ordinary Russians.
Hence, the hundreds of thou-
sands of Russian men of fighting
age desperately trying to flee the
country. Why would these men
wish to stay and be sent to face
the horrors of war — a war that
serves no purpose other than the
agenda of a corrupt regime? Why
would they want to become war
criminals, corpses, or both, simply
to protect the wealth, power and
pride of Putin and his gangster
cronies?
Moreover, drafting 300,000 is
just a first step. Currently, people
from all of Russia’s regions and so-
cial groups are receiving mobiliza-
tion draft notices, and it’s likely
that over a million will have been
drafted by the start of next year.
But saturating the front lines
with poorly trained, and even less
motivated, mobilized troops won’t
lead to greater military “success.” It
will be unmanageable, and the ex-
pected losses will be catastrophic.
Russian society’s ability to toler-
ate tens and hundreds of thou-
sands of dead conscripts is not a
given. As time goes on, passive
forms of protest, such as draft eva-
sion, will increase. And as losses
mount and the number of desert-
ers rises further still, protest will
begin to take more aggressive
forms.
Then, there are also the more
medium-term domestic risks for
the regime, like the emergence of
at least tens of thousands of indi-
viduals in Russia who have deep
but thus far restrained grievanc-
es with their lot in life, now with
weapons, training and experi-
ence in using them. Moreover, this
group won’t only be comprised
of Russians but also the armed
separatists from Ukrainian regions
Putin has now “annexed,” and to
whom he has granted citizenship.
If, and when, Ukraine’s army
penetrates the front, stopping this
armed “Russian” horde from re-
treating into the Russian Federa-
tion and heading through the ad-
joining regions to Moscow won’t be
possible. The historical precedent
of 1917 may provide a template,
when the rollback of troops from
the front in World War I led to the
fall of the regime and the Bolshevik
takeover.
All of these risks may have been
what held Putin back from mo-
bilizing sooner, but the situation
at the front is now out of control.
Mobilization, sham referendums
and vainglorious declarations of
annexation are acts of desperation
and weakness, and the West must
choose how to respond.
One response to mobilization
could be for European countries
to grant asylum to draft dodgers.
Ukraine could also provide asylum
for Russians who wish to fight on
the Ukrainian side or otherwise
support its war effort too.
At the same time, however,
Ukraine needs weapons, and it’s
down to every country with the
ability to do so to provide them.
It’s particularly vital to increase the
supply of weapons capable of tak-
ing out distant command and logis-
tical centers.
But no matter what, now is not
the time for the West to soften its
resolve in the fight against Putin
— it’s time to step it up. There is
no “escape ramp” to offer him; no
elegant way of enabling him to de-
clare victory. Those pushing such
“solutions” don’t understand Pu-
tin — or worse, they’re advocating
a policy of appeasement against
a fascist dictator to try to reduce
their gas bill.
Instead, by far the most efficient
way to put an end to Putin’s en-
ergy blackmail and nuclear threats
would be a further rout of his inva-
sion force. That’s why the world
must now back Ukraine’s forces
with greater intensity than ever
before.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former
political prisoner and CEO of Yukos Oil
company, is the author of “The Russia
Conundrum: How the West Fell for Pu-
tin’s Power Gambit – and How to Fix It.”
Putin’s mobilization
will further upend
the Russian economy
Moscow has no continuity-of-
society plan in case of war, and
there aren’t enough women who can
quickly step in and take on the jobs
of those who’ve fled or been drafted
BY ELISABETH BRAW
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADI-
MIR PUTIN may well succeed in
mobilizing the 300,000 reserv-
ists he says he needs for the war in
Ukraine — but since his announce-
ment, some 360,000 men have
already traveled to Georgia and
Kazakhstan to escape this fate, and
countless others have made their
way to other countries.
Simply put, the more the Krem-
lin mobilizes, the more men will
try to leave the country, and that
has massive implications for all
manner of Russian workplaces,
and consequently, the economy.
With so many men gone, or about
to pack their bags, sectors critical
to the functioning of society — from
factories to internet providers —
are at risk of serious disruption.
And Russia has no plan in place to
deal with this.
Last month, many Russians had
evidently already concluded that
mobilization couldn’t be far off. We
know this because in August, more
than 260,000 Russians entered
Georgia — up from 45,000 in Au-
gust 2021. And in the six days after
Putin’s mobilization announce-
ment, nearly 100,000 Russians en-
tered Kazakhstan, with the sudden-
ly booked-up flights to countries
like Turkey and the United Arab
Emirates illustrating the exodus
now taking place.
The men now desperately leav-
ing Russia are, of course, able-bod-
ied and of working age — and their
departure is an enormous loss to
the armed forces.
But both the mobilization and
the flight of so many men, at least
as numerous as those being draft-
Russian ed, will create another problem —
reservists the absence of qualified workers in
drafted during every sector. And the country has
the partial no set system for the continuity of
mobilization its society during wartime.
attend a By contrast, Russia’s neighbors
departure Sweden and Finland have long
ceremony in maintained such detailed plans for
Crimea. how to keep society going in case
STRINGER/AFP VIA
of war, and it involves more than,
GETTY IMAGES say, engineers staffing nuclear
power plants.
“In Finland, every company lists
which employees are so vital that
they can’t be released to the armed
forces,” retired Lieutenant General
Arto Räty, a former permanent
secretary of Finland’s Ministry of
Defense, told me. “And it’s not just
energy and infrastructure but com-
panies in all sectors. That means
that we have a lot of people who
have done military service who will
never be called up. Having them
performing their critical functions
in civil society is even more impor-
tant.”
Every Finnish industry sector
also features a permanent chief of
readiness, along with a committee
in charge of crisis planning, while
the country’s National Emergency
Supply Agency is responsible for
ensuring supplies for a wide
range of crucial goods during cri-
ses.
During the Cold War, Sweden
operated a similarly detailed plan —
one that was later mostly scrapped
but is now being invigorated — fea-
October 6, 2022 Page 17
turing so-called war placement for
scores of workers who would, in
case of war, remain in their
civilian jobs or take on government
tasks with similar functions. Many
engineers had war placement,
but so did many factory workers,
teachers and journalists — and
all of it was regularly tested in
the country’s total defense exer-
cises.
“Sweden is now in the process
of rebuilding our Cold War total
defense, and creating what one
might call Total Defense 2.0, or
societal defense,” retired General
Sverker Göranson, a former chief
of defense of Sweden, told me.
“The point is that all-encompassing
defense must encompass the whole
of society, including people per-
forming different functions in war
placement roles.”
Had Sweden or Finland been in-
vaded during the Cold War, a core
of factory workers would have kept
up civilian and military produc-
tion. A core of journalists would
have continued informing the
public. A core of doctors, nurses,
teachers, supermarket workers,
train engineers and lorry drivers
would have made sure the popu-
lation was fed and able to access
necessities.
Given that today many crucial
services are provided by private
companies, making such plans for
their continued functioning during
crises has become even more im-
portant and complex.
As demonstrated by the hap-
hazard way in which men are cur-
rently being mobilized, however,
it is clear that Russia has no such
continuity-of-society plan. And
no, there aren’t enough women
who can quickly step in and take
on the jobs of the men who have
been mobilized and have fled the
country.
“The mobilization is happening
randomly, and because of that, it
will hit the economy,” Räty said.
“Maybe not on the first day, but
the economy can’t just keep going
without these men and the men
who’ve fled.”
If more men are indeed mobi-
lized, critical services and the rest
of the economy will, of course,
struggle more. “We’re already
seeing a huge brain drain,” Kari
Liuhto, a professor of econom-
ics who specializes in the Rus-
sian economy at the University of
Turku, says. “The best people are
leaving Russia. Already this spring,
tens of thousands of tech experts
left the country. And the govern-
ment doesn’t have a plan for how
to replace these people.”
Then again, Liuhto noted, it
would also have been difficult for
the Kremlin to create and exer-
cise a continuity-of-society plan
“because then it would have been
clear to Russians that there might
be a long war afoot.”
Imagine being a Russian factory
owner today who can’t produce
your goods — for which you now
have an excellent market, as so
many Western companies have left
Russia or stopped exporting to it —
because of a lack manpower. Imag-
ine being an IT firm losing
engineers, with no new ones in
sight. Or a food distribution firm
losing lorry drivers. Imagine being
a Russian citizen unable to get the
goods or services you need. Doubt-
less, you’ll curse your country’s
absence of a continuity-of-society
plan.
Or, more likely, you’ll start
damning the war.
Elisabeth Braw is a resident fellow
at the American Enterprise Institute,
where she focuses on defense against
emerging national security challenges.
 Cover story

BY SUZANNE LYNCH
AND ILYA GRIDNEFF

U
rsula von der Leyen’s whirl-
wind tour of the United EUROPE’S
AMERICAN
States started in New York
at the United Nations Gen-
eral Assembly, where she
rubbed shoulders with the world’s
most senior leaders, from U.N. Sec-
retary-General António Guterres
to Canadian Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau.

PRESIDENT
From there, the president of the
European Commission was whisked
across the Hudson River and into New
Jersey, to Princeton University. In a
wood-paneled hall in one of Ameri-
ca’s most storied Ivy League schools,
she delivered a keynote address billed
as “Europe’s Moment” that was in
reality more of an ode to EU-U.S. re-
lations.
“I have been in politics now round
about 20 years,” she told the stu-
dents, as the camera — whether by
accident or design — silhouetted her
against a giant American flag. “Never
ever have I experienced such an in-
tense, trustful and detailed coopera-
tion with the White House.”

THE PARADOX
“I think the saying is right,” she
continued. “When you face a crisis,
you know who your true friends are.”
Von der Leyen’s words were more
than just the diplomatic niceties ex-
pected of top officials in moments
like these. According to multiple of-
ficials in Brussels and Washington,

OF URSULA
they reflect how the Commission
president has emerged as the per-
son to call when U.S. officials want
to call Europe — in particular when it
comes to the war in Ukraine.
They also speak to growing mur-
murs of discontent at home — grum-
blings from officials in her own in-

VON DER LEYEN

stitution and among representatives
of EU countries about her top-down
approach. Von der Leyen’s penchant
for secrecy and her dependence on
a small coterie of advisers, her de-
tractors complain, runs counter to
the EU’s culture of consensus-driven
decision-making.
“She doesn’t trust anyone; she
lives in a tower,” said one member
of a commissioner’s Cabinet, speak-
ing on condition of anonymity in or-
der to speak freely about the institu-
tion’s top official. “She doesn’t build
alliances. Sometimes that can lead to
mistakes as she doesn’t sound people
out enough.”
WARTIME LEADER
The spur for the rapprochement be-
tween von der Leyen and Washing-
ton was Russia’s brutal invasion of
Ukraine.
Hopes had been high in 2020 that
U.S. President Joe Biden’s election
would reverse the bitterness of the
Trump era. But the return to transat-
lantic harmony had not been smooth
— even before Biden’s inauguration,
his team made it clear that they were
furious about an EU decision to enter
an investment pact with China. Ten-
sions persisted over trade, interna-
tional taxation and the rules govern-
ing the digital sphere — particularly
those regarding privacy in intercon-
tinental data transfers.
Rumors of war largely swept those
disagreements away. By late 2021, as
Europe and the U.S. began to emerge
from the COVID crisis, another grave
prospect was looming: Russian troops
massing at the Ukrainian border.
In November 2021, von der Ley-
en made her first visit to the White
House. Among those in the meeting
in the Oval Office that afternoon were
Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake
Sullivan, then Deputy National Secu-
rity Adviser for International Eco-
nomics Daleep Singh, and Amanda
Sloat, senior director for Europe at
the National Security Council.
With von der Leyen were two of
the Commission president’s closest
confidants, Bjoern Seibert, her head
of Cabinet who has worked with her
since her days as German defense
minister; and Fernando Andresen
Guimaraes, another member of her
Cabinet who had previously served
as head of the Russia, and the U.S.
and Canada divisions in the Europe-
an External Action Service, the EU’s
diplomatic service. Also present was
EU ambassador to the United States,
Stavros Lambrinidis.
Putin’s invasion was still two and
a half months away, but tensions
were already rising. The two teams
discussed the situation on the EU’s
border with Belarus, where migrants
from the Middle East were being
flown in by Belarusian dictator Al-
exander Lukashenko to cross into
Poland and Lithuania.
Then the topic turned to the possi-
bility of a Russian assault on Ukraine.
Just before the meeting, Biden had
been briefed by national security
At right: and intelligence officials about the
Ursula von der buildup of Russian battalions near
Leyen delivers the Ukraine border. He wanted to
a keynote sound the alarm.
address at “The president was very con-
Princeton last cerned,” said one European official,
month. speaking on condition of anonymity.
“This was a time when no one in Eu-
THE TRUSTEES
OF PRINCETON rope was paying any attention, even
UNIVERSITY the intelligence services.”
VIA EUROPEAN
COMMISSION Further meetings followed, in-
cluding a visit to Brussels by CIA Di-
rector Bill Burns later in the month,
as Washington became increasingly
frantic about the lack of urgency in
European capitals about the loom-
ing threat.
At the instigation of the White
House, officials from both sides of
the Atlantic, including U.S. Undersec-
retary of State for Political Affairs Vic-
toria Nuland, started meeting weekly
by video conference.
As fears of a Russian invasion grew,
talk turned to preparations for a pack-
age of sanctions that could be adopt-
ed by EU countries if Moscow decided
to send troops across the border. Con-
tacts started taking place daily. In par-
ticular, Singh and Seibert built a close
working relationship. Officials from

various Commission departments —
known as directorates general — were
also drafted in, including a group set
up under the recently created EU-
U.S. Trade and Technology Council,
which dealt with the complex issue
of export bans.
Seibert was “critical” to the suc-
cess of the first sanctions package, a
senior U.S. official said. “The essential
interlocutor with the European Com-
mission was Bjoern Seibert,” the offi-
cial said, describing the German civil
servant as an expert on substance and
“a pretty savvy political operator.”
“We had a tremendous amount of
convergence across the board,” the
official said.
Seibert was the person who rang
von der Leyen, who was attending
the Budapest Forum in Warsaw, at
4 a.m. to tell her about the invasion
in the early hours of February 24.
Throughout the preparation pro-
cess, it was the Commission that had
taken the lead on sanctions, consult-
ing some national capitals like Berlin,
Paris and Rome — but for the most
part meeting representatives of
member countries in small groups
to sound out their views.
Fearful that the ambitious package
of sanctions could leak, the Commis-
sion never provided a draft text, un-
til the final moment when member
countries were poised to consider it.
The sanctions needed unanimous
approval by EU countries, but with
their respective publics watching the
Russian buildup in alarm, the repre-
sentatives of national governments
in Brussels had little choice but to
waive them through.
“It is unlikely that the very close
collaboration we are seeing on sanc-
tions and other fronts would have de-
veloped as it has without consider-
able rapport between Washington
and Brussels — at the highest levels,
but also at working levels,” said Ian
Lesser, vice president of the German
Marshall Fund of the United States.
‘DON’T FORGET US’
Von der Leyen’s strengths — her dis-
cretion, her rapid decision-making
— may have endeared her to her
counterparts on the other side of the
Atlantic. But those same attributes
have also alienated her from some of
her colleagues in Brussels and other
European capitals.
During the high-stakes sanctions
talks, von der Leyen’s qualities were
just what was needed to shove com-
plex, politically sensitive measures
through the EU’s slow-moving deci-
sion-making processes.
“There was a sense in Washington
that this was someone who could fi-
nally get things done, who could de-
liver,” said a senior EU official who
participated in transatlantic discus-
sions. Von der Leyen’s experience
as a former defense minister also
made her the ideal point person for
the Biden administration as it warned
of a looming war.
But while EU countries were pre-
pared to give the Commission leeway
in the first rounds of sanctions discus-
sions, as talk turned to further mea-
sures, some national officials began to
push back against her hard-charging
approach.
When von der Leyen announced a
sixth round of sanctions, including a
proposed ban on Russian oil, to the
European Parliament before mem-
bers had even discussed it, some were
critical. Dutch Prime Minister Mark
Rutte criticized the Commission for
its lack of precision on the technical
detail. It would take another month
before the package was approved,
and not before concessions were
made to some Central and Eastern
European countries on oil.
It wasn’t the first time the Commis-
sion president had been rebuked for
getting out ahead of the pack. At the
height of the COVID pandemic, the
Commission’s proposal for a €2 tril-
lion economic rescue package leaked
before leaders had seen it, prompting
a rebuke by Angela Merkel. “Don’t
forget to talk to us,” the then German
chancellor told her former protégé.
A three-time Cabinet minister, von
der Leyen became the first female
European Commission president in
2019, after being catapulted into the
job over the objections of many in
the European Parliament who had
favored the so-called Spitzenkandi-
dat system, which proposes that the
post be given to one of the candidates
nominated by a pan-European party.
Her decision to ensconce herself
on the 13th floor of the Berlaymont
EU headquarters, where a former
washroom was converted to a bed-
room when she took office, has led
some to complain that she has gov-
erned with a bunker mentality, with
the help of only a small group of ad-
visers.
Simmering tensions between
von der Leyen and the rest of her
27-strong College of Commissioners
burst into the open in June, after she
decided to green-light the disburse-
ment of EU recovery funds to Poland,
despite concerns over Warsaw’s abus-
es of the judiciary.
After von der Leyen’s decision was
put on the College’s agenda on June 1,
five commissioners — including Com-
mission Vice Presidents Frans Tim-
mermans and Margrethe Vestager —
put their discontent in writing. The
objection by Vestager, who has had a
good working relationship with von
der Leyen, was especially notable.
“This was not a decision that had
very wide support within the Col-
lege,” a Commission official told PO-
LITICO. “There was a feeling that von
der Leyen had probably first agreed
to something with the national lead-
ers concerned, without taking ac-
count of the views of the Commis-
sion.”
Despite her colleagues’ objections,
von der Leyen — who declined to be
interviewed for this article — pressed
ahead anyway.
CENTRAL POWER
People who have worked closely with
von der Leyen say her tendency to
centralize power is most evident
when big decisions are on the table
— the green light for Poland’s rescue
fund, for example, or a proposal to
classify investments in nuclear or gas
energy production as “green.”
In these cases, she is more likely
to consult with the powers-that-be
in Berlin or Paris than the European
commissioner in charge of the port-
folio. Similarly, she sometimes works
directly with key individuals within
the Commission’s directorates gen-
eral, effectively bypassing the com-
missioners themselves.
In her top-down style, she differs
fundamentally from her predecessor
Jean-Claude Juncker — a notoriously
political operator who regularly took
the pulse of his colleagues before
making decisions, even if much of
the policy priorities were set by his
chief of staff, Martin Selmayr.
In many ways, von der Leyen
displays a U.S.-presidential style
understanding of executive power.
The Commission has been assum-
ing more authority within the EU
for some time. Under von der Leyen,
this process has accelerated — with
the Commission taking a lead role
in big changes of direction, such as
the issuance of common EU debt,
the joint procurement of COVID vac-
cines and the introduction of Russia
sanctions.
“Within the Commission, this
process of centralization that al-
ready happened under Juncker has
continued,” said Stefan Lehne, a se-
nior fellow at Carnegie Europe. “The
real power is with the president. In-
dividual commissioners have lost a
October 6, 2022 Page 19
lot of power; the collegium as such
is weaker, the president is stronger.”
Von der Leyen’s guardedness and
centralized decision-making process
have prompted much speculation in
Brussels about her next move. A close
relationship with Washington would
be a valuable asset if she were inter-
ested in a high-level international job,
for example at the United Nations.
Interestingly, von der Leyen was one
of the first to congratulate Biden in
August in a late-night tweet when he
signed his signature domestic legis-
lation, the Inflation Reduction Act —
despite the fact that the EU has some
major concerns about the proposal,
which it views as protectionist.
Alternatively, a desire to serve a
second term as Commission presi-
dent in 2024 would help explain why
von der Leyen has sometimes kept
better contact with national capi-
tals, whose support in the European
Council she would need, than with
her own Commissioners.
“Von der Leyen pushed through
the Polish recovery plan against seri-
ous opposition from the very top of
her College,” said Daniel Freund, a
member of the European Parliament
with the German Green party. “She
went against the majority of the Eu-
ropean Parliament when it comes to
the rule of law, up to the point where
we had to sue her for inactivity.”
“You might win singular battles
with this approach but you will lose
support in the long run,” Freund
added.
Just this week, two commissioners,
Thierry Breton and Paolo Gentiloni,
called for a support fund to help cush-
ion the blow for Europeans during
the current energy crisis — something
that had not been promulgated by
von der Leyen.
The question for von der Leyen
is whether her top-down approach
will continue to pay dividends if and
when the crisis subsides and atten-
tions turn to long-term concerns or
decisions that require broad levels
of support.
Her ability to push through sanc-
tions was helped by the fact that few
others in Europe were paying atten-
tion. The U.S. was getting little re-
sponse from national capitals to their
warnings about Putin’s intentions.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and
French President Emmanuel Macron
had other things on their mind — Ma-
cron was fighting a reelection cam-
paign and Scholz was trying to keep
an increasingly divided three-party
government together.
Meanwhile, Brexit had deprived
the EU of one of its main intelligence
assets — with Britain, a member of
the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance
no longer participating in the bloc’s
discussions.
Sanctions were also an area where
the Commission had real heft, given
the power of the EU single market
and the EU’s economic interrelation-
ship with Russia. The highly technical
nature of the discussions suited the
strengths of Seibert’s detail-focused
team.
But alienating her College is risky
business. There’s the danger her ap-
proach, and her close ties to Wash-
ington, could store up difficulties for
her when she tries to get other EU
policy priorities through.
Brussels and Washington are still
far apart on issues like potential trade
agreements or the regulatory frame-
work to protect privacy in data trans-
fers across the Atlantic. And then
there are EU-specific priorities like
reforming the EU’s fiscal rules and
implementing the Commission’s Fit
for 55 climate change package. On
issues like those, where there are no
Russian troops to focus minds in Eu-
rope, von der Leyen may find that
what she needs is not the support of
Washington but of colleagues closer
to home.