Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)

Year Index Lowess Delta 1 Delta 2

1880 -0.15 -0.08 0 0
1881 -0.07 -0.12 0.08 -0.04 Index
1882 -0.10 -0.16 -0.03 -0.04 1.20
1883 -0.17 -0.20 -0.07 -0.04
1.00
1884 -0.28 -0.23 -0.11 -0.03
0.80
1885 -0.33 -0.26 -0.05 -0.03
1886 -0.31 -0.27 0.02 -0.01 0.60
1887 -0.36 -0.27 -0.05 0.00 0.40
1888 -0.17 -0.26 0.19 0.01 0.20
1889 -0.10 -0.25 0.07 0.01
0.00
1890 -0.34 -0.25 -0.24 0.00 1880 1888 1896 1904 1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 196
1891 -0.22 -0.25 0.12 0.00 -0.20
1892 -0.27 -0.26 -0.05 -0.01 -0.40
1893 -0.31 -0.25 -0.04 0.01 -0.60
1894 -0.30 -0.23 0.01 0.02
1895 -0.22 -0.22 0.08 0.01
1896 -0.11 -0.20 0.11 0.02 Delta 1
1897 -0.11 -0.18 0.00 0.02 0.4
1898 -0.27 -0.16 -0.16 0.02
1899 -0.17 -0.17 0.10 -0.01 0.3

1900 -0.08 -0.20 0.09 -0.03 0.2

1901 -0.16 -0.23 -0.08 -0.03
1902 -0.28 -0.26 -0.12 -0.03 0.1
1903 -0.37 -0.28 -0.09 -0.02
0
1904 -0.47 -0.31 -0.10 -0.03 1880 1888 1896 1904 1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 196
1905 -0.26 -0.34 0.21 -0.03 -0.1
1906 -0.22 -0.36 0.04 -0.02
-0.2
1907 -0.38 -0.37 -0.16 -0.01
1908 -0.42 -0.39 -0.04 -0.02 -0.3
1909 -0.48 -0.40 -0.06 -0.01
1910 -0.43 -0.41 0.05 -0.01 The statistical distribution of Index shows quite a lot
1911 -0.44 -0.39 -0.01 0.02 changes, which are also shown by Delta1, but in the
gradual increase in the overall trend from the year 19
1912 -0.36 -0.35 0.08 0.04 any denier of global warming wrong as the annual av
1913 -0.34 -0.32 0.02 0.03 index have risen from -0.42oC in 1915 to as high as 1.
1914 -0.15 -0.31 0.19 0.01 rise in the trend of temperature in the past century.
1915 -0.14 -0.30 0.01 0.01
1916 -0.36 -0.30 -0.22 0.00
1917 -0.46 -0.30 -0.10 0.00
1918 -0.30 -0.30 0.16 0.00
1919 -0.28 -0.30 0.02 0.00 Data for Delta 1
1920 -0.27 -0.28 0.01 0.02 x̄ 0.007042
1921 -0.19 -0.27 0.08 0.01 σ 0.110997
1922 -0.29 -0.26 -0.10 0.01 zc 1.96
1923 -0.27 -0.24 0.02 0.02 n 142
1924 -0.27 -0.23 0.00 0.01
1925 -0.22 -0.22 0.05 0.01 Upper Bound 0.025299
1926 -0.11 -0.22 0.11 0.00 Lower Bound -0.011214
1927 -0.22 -0.21 -0.11 0.01
1928 -0.20 -0.20 0.02 0.01
1929 -0.36 -0.19 -0.16 0.01
1930 -0.16 -0.19 0.20 0.00
1931 -0.09 -0.19 0.07 0.00
1932 -0.16 -0.18 -0.07 0.01
1933 -0.29 -0.17 -0.13 0.01
1934 -0.12 -0.16 0.17 0.01
1935 -0.20 -0.14 -0.08 0.02
1936 -0.15 -0.11 0.05 0.03
1937 -0.03 -0.06 0.12 0.05
1938 0.00 -0.01 0.03 0.05
1939 -0.01 0.03 -0.01 0.04
1940 0.13 0.07 0.14 0.04
1941 0.19 0.09 0.06 0.02
1942 0.07 0.11 -0.12 0.02
1943 0.09 0.10 0.02 -0.01
1944 0.20 0.07 0.11 -0.03
1945 0.09 0.04 -0.11 -0.03
1946 -0.07 0.00 -0.16 -0.04
1947 -0.03 -0.04 0.04 -0.04
1948 -0.11 -0.07 -0.08 -0.03
1949 -0.11 -0.08 0.00 -0.01
1950 -0.18 -0.08 -0.07 0.00
1951 -0.07 -0.07 0.11 0.01
1952 0.01 -0.07 0.08 0.00
1953 0.08 -0.07 0.07 0.00
1954 -0.13 -0.07 -0.21 0.00
1955 -0.14 -0.06 -0.01 0.01
1956 -0.19 -0.05 -0.05 0.01
1957 0.05 -0.04 0.24 0.01
1958 0.06 -0.01 0.01 0.03
1959 0.03 0.01 -0.03 0.02
1960 -0.03 0.03 -0.06 0.02
1961 0.06 0.01 0.09 -0.02
1962 0.03 -0.01 -0.03 -0.02
1963 0.05 -0.03 0.02 -0.02
1964 -0.20 -0.04 -0.25 -0.01
1965 -0.11 -0.05 0.09 -0.01
1966 -0.06 -0.06 0.05 -0.01
1967 -0.02 -0.05 0.04 0.01
1968 -0.08 -0.03 -0.06 0.02
1969 0.05 -0.02 0.13 0.01
1970 0.02 -0.01 -0.03 0.01
1971 -0.08 0.00 -0.10 0.01
1972 0.01 0.00 0.09 0.00
1973 0.16 0.00 0.15 0.00
1974 -0.07 0.01 -0.23 0.01
1975 -0.01 0.02 0.06 0.01
1976 -0.10 0.04 -0.09 0.02
1977 0.18 0.08 0.28 0.04
1978 0.07 0.12 -0.11 0.04
1979 0.17 0.17 0.10 0.05
1980 0.26 0.20 0.09 0.03
1981 0.32 0.21 0.06 0.01
1982 0.14 0.22 -0.18 0.01
1983 0.31 0.21 0.17 -0.01
1984 0.16 0.21 -0.15 0.00
1985 0.12 0.22 -0.04 0.01
1986 0.18 0.24 0.06 0.02
1987 0.32 0.27 0.14 0.03
1988 0.39 0.31 0.07 0.04
1989 0.27 0.33 -0.12 0.02
1990 0.45 0.33 0.18 0.00
1991 0.41 0.33 -0.04 0.00
1992 0.22 0.33 -0.19 0.00
1993 0.23 0.33 0.01 0.00
1994 0.32 0.34 0.09 0.01
1995 0.45 0.37 0.13 0.03
1996 0.33 0.40 -0.12 0.03
1997 0.46 0.42 0.13 0.02
1998 0.61 0.44 0.15 0.02
1999 0.38 0.47 -0.23 0.03
2000 0.39 0.50 0.01 0.03
2001 0.54 0.52 0.15 0.02
2002 0.63 0.55 0.09 0.03
2003 0.62 0.58 -0.01 0.03
2004 0.53 0.61 -0.09 0.03
2005 0.68 0.62 0.15 0.01
2006 0.64 0.62 -0.04 0.00
2007 0.66 0.63 0.02 0.01
2008 0.54 0.64 -0.12 0.01
2009 0.66 0.64 0.12 0.00
2010 0.72 0.65 0.06 0.01
2011 0.61 0.67 -0.11 0.02
2012 0.65 0.70 0.04 0.03
2013 0.68 0.74 0.03 0.04
2014 0.75 0.79 0.07 0.05
2015 0.90 0.83 0.15 0.04
2016 1.02 0.88 0.12 0.05
2017 0.92 0.91 -0.10 0.03
2018 0.85 0.92 -0.07 0.01
2019 0.98 0.93 0.13 0.01
2020 1.02 0.94 0.04 0.01
2021 0.85 0.94 -0.17 0.00
 Comparisons

Index Lowess
1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
12 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 2016 1880188818961904191219201928193619441952196019681976198419922
-0.20

-0.40

-0.60

Delta 1 Delta 2
0.06

0.04

0.02

0
1880188818961904191219201928193619441952196019681976198419922
2 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 2016
-0.02

-0.04

-0.06

on of Index shows quite a lot of flucatuations in the year to year
shown by Delta1, but in the Index graph we can also see a
overall trend from the year 1915 and onwards. This would prove
ming wrong as the annual averages of the Global Land-Ocean
.42oC in 1915 to as high as 1.02oC in 2020, showing a clear cut
perature in the past century.
The Delta2 and Lowess graph show relatively stable versions of the
Index graphs. This is so because the Lowess data results from the L
smoothing curve, that is drawn only to see the pattern in a scatter
Therefore, Delta2 has some different fluctuations in comparison to
however, the Lowess curve shows a pattern very similar to that of
graph.

Confidence Intervals

Data for Delta 2 The confidence interval for Delta1 shows a difference of approxiately 0.018 from the cur
x̄ 0.007183 mean. The interesting factor about this confidence interval is that the lower bound has a
value while the upper bound has a positive value. This can be misleading for the reader
σ 0.021117 variable is showing the year to year change in the index. A positive value shows an incre
zc 1.96 index while a negative value would show a decrease, leading to a questionable result for
mean in the confidence interval. The likley values for the population mean are both posi
negative which can provide an unreliable figure as an estimate because thev variable un
consideration is the change in the averages. Delta 2 on the other hand does not have thi
However, it is important to notice that, due to the fact that Delta2 results from the Lowe
confidence interval for it is relatively narrower than the one for Delta1. This is so becaus
for Delta2 are relatively more stable than Delta1, leading to a smaller confidence interva
 The confidence interval for Delta1 shows a difference of approxiately 0.018 from the cur
mean. The interesting factor about this confidence interval is that the lower bound has a
value while the upper bound has a positive value. This can be misleading for the reader
variable is showing the year to year change in the index. A positive value shows an incre
index while a negative value would show a decrease, leading to a questionable result for
mean in the confidence interval. The likley values for the population mean are both posi
n 142 negative which can provide an unreliable figure as an estimate because thev variable un
consideration is the change in the averages. Delta 2 on the other hand does not have thi
However, it is important to notice that, due to the fact that Delta2 results from the Lowe
Upper Bound 0.010656 confidence interval for it is relatively narrower than the one for Delta1. This is so becaus
Lower Bound 0.00371 for Delta2 are relatively more stable than Delta1, leading to a smaller confidence interva
variable. In simple words, we can get a better estimate of the population from the confid
of Delta2 than of Delta1, due to the lower variance in the data for Delta2.
ess

195219601968197619841992200020082016

95219601968197619841992200020082016

vely stable versions of the Delta1 and

ess data results from the Lowess
ee the pattern in a scatter plot.
tuations in comparison to Delta1,
ern very similar to that of the Index

xiately 0.018 from the current sample

hat the lower bound has a negative
misleading for the reader as the Delta1
tive value shows an increase in the
o a questionable result for the sample
ation mean are both positive and
because thev variable under
er hand does not have this problem.
ta2 results from the Lowess curves, the
Delta1. This is so because the values
maller confidence interval for the
xiately 0.018 from the current sample
hat the lower bound has a negative
misleading for the reader as the Delta1
tive value shows an increase in the
o a questionable result for the sample
ation mean are both positive and
because thev variable under
er hand does not have this problem.
ta2 results from the Lowess curves, the
Delta1. This is so because the values
maller confidence interval for the
opulation from the confidence interval
for Delta2.
ECON 222, Spring 2022, Eray Yucel
Microsoft Excel functions are required: visit https://dar.vin/nDAmO for Excel assistance
Hw2: week of 21 March 2022

Grading: No submission=0 points, Late submission=30 points deduction. Other deductions will be
announced by the TA team. Note that Homework performance makes up 12.5% of your semester total; so,
sharing your work in any form with other students may harm your individual letter grade assessment.
Unacceptably high similarity between submissions will yield a grade of 0 points as well as possible
disciplinary investigation. Once you are finished with Homework, save your file and send a copy of your
workbook to your TA’s email as an attachment. Send it also to your own Bilkent-registered e-mail address
for future reference and keep that e-mail message safe at all times.

On the page https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ the data on the right hand side is

provided. Examine the page before directing your attention to data.

Focus on part of the data shaded in orange. In column E, calculate the year-to-year change of the Index. You
can name it Delta1.
- Investigate the statistical distribution of Delta1, what does it look like?
- Investigate the evolution of Index and Delta1 over time? What do you see?

Then, focus on part of the data given in column D. In column F, calculate the year-to-year change of
Lowess. You can name it Delta2.
- Investigate the statistical distribution of Delta2, what does it look like?
- Investigate the evolution of Lowess and Delta2 over time? What do you see?
Examine the page from NASA above in more depth and be creative. How can you convince a denier of
global warming (climate change) using your data set?

Consider your Delta1 and Delta2 and realize that these 142-year data set is a statistical sample from the
whole human history (n=142). Based on that,
- Estimate a 95% C.I. for Delta1
- Estimate a 95% C.I. for Delta2
What do your confidence intervals say?

Submission deadline is 26 March 2022, Saturday, 21:00. Your TA will send you a short message of “Ok” upon
her/his receipt of your email.