dX Spreadsheet Sample = M: Sep-1983: Oct-2001 Columns

ECOPS Mon 11-Mar-2002 4:08:25pm

(1)
CA2M.UN__U#PV#01
Number

Sep-83 2309
Oct-83 2363
Nov-83 2480
Dec-83 2198
Jan-84 1711
Feb-84 2322
Mar-84 2612
Apr-84 2287
May-84 3025
Jun-84 2632
Jul-84 2852
Aug-84 3034
Sep-84 2563
Oct-84 2997
Nov-84 2646
Dec-84 1989
Jan-85 2115
Feb-85 2488
Mar-85 2566
Apr-85 2613
May-85 2953
Jun-85 2410
Jul-85 2840
Aug-85 2756
Sep-85 2586
Oct-85 3130
Nov-85 2722
Dec-85 2192
Jan-86 2013
Feb-86 2204
Mar-86 1880
Apr-86 2422
May-86 2427
Jun-86 2278
Jul-86 2439
Aug-86 2250
Sep-86 2351
Oct-86 2526
Nov-86 2302
Dec-86 2305
Jan-87 1625
Feb-87 2016
Mar-87 2244
Apr-87 2030
May-87 2303
Jun-87 2199
Jul-87 2236
Aug-87 2225
Sep-87 2369
Oct-87 2527
Nov-87 2279
Dec-87 2439
Jan-88 1769
Feb-88 2202
Mar-88 2542
Apr-88 2609
May-88 2594
Jun-88 2747
Jul-88 2667
Aug-88 3190
Sep-88 3176
Oct-88 2930
Nov-88 3210
Dec-88 2763
Jan-89 2528
Feb-89 2902
Mar-89 2930
Apr-89 3112
May-89 3662
Jun-89 2901
Jul-89 2555
Aug-89 2688
Sep-89 2391
Oct-89 2401
Nov-89 2381
Dec-89 2075
Jan-90 1800
Feb-90 1988
Mar-90 2096
Apr-90 1756
May-90 2350
Jun-90 1871
Jul-90 1843
Aug-90 1930
Sep-90 1633
Oct-90 1913
Nov-90 2018
Dec-90 1343
Jan-91 1532
Feb-91 1497
Mar-91 1385
Apr-91 1523
May-91 1933
Jun-91 1584
Jul-91 2036
Aug-91 1776
Sep-91 1715
Oct-91 2111
Nov-91 1778
Dec-91 1663
Jan-92 1526
Feb-92 1794
Mar-92 1970
Apr-92 1896
May-92 1969
Jun-92 2124
Jul-92 2410
Aug-92 2116
Sep-92 2343
Oct-92 2378
Nov-92 2091
Dec-92 2208
Jan-93 1621
Feb-93 1952
Mar-93 2438
Apr-93 1954
May-93 2228
Jun-93 2232
Jul-93 2210
Aug-93 2250
Sep-93 2284
Oct-93 2272
Nov-93 2354
Dec-93 2105
Jan-94 1785
Feb-94 2343
Mar-94 2559
Apr-94 2021
May-94 2614
Jun-94 2442
Jul-94 2466
Aug-94 2716
Sep-94 2477
Oct-94 2395
Nov-94 2591
Dec-94 1861
Jan-95 1573
Feb-95 1861
Mar-95 1954
Apr-95 1587
May-95 1903
Jun-95 1907
Jul-95 1828
Aug-95 1802
Sep-95 1723
Oct-95 1694
Nov-95 1731
Dec-95 1380
Jan-96 1316
Feb-96 1299
Mar-96 1332
Apr-96 1351
May-96 1541
Jun-96 1436
Jul-96 1513
Aug-96 1584
Sep-96 1480
Oct-96 1565
Nov-96 1408
Dec-96 1448
Jan-97 1366
Feb-97 1613
Mar-97 1897
Apr-97 1928
May-97 2007
Jun-97 1820
Jul-97 2051
Aug-97 2268
Sep-97 2382
Oct-97 2192
Nov-97 2303
Dec-97 2180
Jan-98 1790
Feb-98 2099
Mar-98 2595
Apr-98 2507
May-98 2485
Jun-98 2554
Jul-98 2342
Aug-98 2355
Sep-98 2694
Oct-98 2296
Nov-98 2287
Dec-98 2147
Jan-99 1712
Feb-99 2442
Mar-99 2758
Apr-99 2230
May-99 2766
Jun-99 2706
Jul-99 2724
Aug-99 3087
Sep-99 3340
 Oct-99 2875
Nov-99 3443
Dec-99 3300
Jan-00 2547
Feb-00 3597
Mar-00 3645
Apr-00 2555
May-00 2530
Jun-00 2382
Jul-00 1842
Aug-00 1809
Sep-00 1854
Oct-00 1518
Nov-00 2359
Dec-00 1701
Jan-01 1649
Feb-01 2282
Mar-01 2185
Apr-01 1811
May-01 2658
Jun-01 2615
Jul-01 2817
Aug-01 3632
Sep-01 2961
Oct-01 3309

(1) Vic: Original: Dwelling units approved: Houses: Private

 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Sep-83
Feb-84
Jul-84
Dec-84
May-85
Oct-85
Mar-86
Aug-86
Jan-87
Jun-87
Nov-87
Apr-88
Sep-88
Feb-89
Jul-89
Dec-89
May-90
Oct-90
Mar-91
Aug-91
Jan-92
Jun-92
Nov-92

Month
Apr-93
Sep-93
Feb-94
Jul-94
Dec-94
May-95
Oct-95
Mar-96
Number of Dwelling Units Approved: Vic

Aug-96
Jan-97
Jun-97
Nov-97
Apr-98
Sep-98
Feb-99
Jul-99
Dec-99
May-00
Oct-00
Mar-01
Aug-01
 A B C D E F G H I
1 Single Exponential Smoothing
a1 SSE Sum of square errors MSE 167010
2 Target cell for Solver
3 0.1 23548414.58 MAPE 15.91
4 Smoothing parameter
between 0 and 1
5
6
7
8 Month Unit (Yt) Level (Lt) Forecast(Ft) Error (Et) |Et/Yt x 100|
9
10 Jan-90 1800 1800
11 Feb-90 1988 1819 1800 188 9.46
12 Mar-90 2096 1847 1819 277 13.23
13 Apr-90 1756 1837 1847 -91 5.15
14 May-90 2350 1889 1837 513 21.81
15 Jun-90 1871 1887 1889 -18 0.95
16 Jul-90 1843 1883 1887 -44 2.38
17 Aug-90 1930 1887 1883 47 2.46
18 Sep-90 1633 1862 1887 -254 15.57
19 Oct-90 1913 1867 1862 51 2.67
20 Nov-90 2018 1882 1867 151 7.48
21 Dec-90 1343 1828 1882 -539 40.14
22 Jan-91 1532 1799 1828 -296 19.33
23 Feb-91 1497 1768 1799 -302 20.14
24 Mar-91 1385 1730 1768 -383 27.68
25 Apr-91 1523 1709 1730 -207 13.60
26 May-91 1933 1732 1709 224 11.57
27 Jun-91 1584 1717 1732 -148 9.33
28 Jul-91 2036 1749 1717 319 15.67
29 Aug-91 1776 1752 1749 27 1.53
30 Sep-91 1715 1748 1752 -37 2.13
31 Oct-91 2111 1784 1748 363 17.20
32 Nov-91 1778 1784 1784 -6 0.35
33 Dec-91 1663 1772 1784 -121 7.25
34 Jan-92 1526 1747 1772 -246 16.09
35 Feb-92 1794 1752 1747 47 2.62
 A B C D E F G H I
36 Mar-92 1970 1774 1752 218 11.08
37 Apr-92 1896 1786 1774 122 6.46
38 May-92 1969 1804 1786 183 9.31
39 Jun-92 2124 1836 1804 320 15.06
40 Jul-92 2410 1893 1836 574 23.81
41 Aug-92 2116 1916 1893 223 10.52
42 Sep-92 2343 1958 1916 427 18.24
43 Oct-92 2378 2000 1958 420 17.64
44 Nov-92 2091 2009 2000 91 4.33
45 Dec-92 2208 2029 2009 199 8.99
46 Jan-93 1621 1988 2029 -408 25.19
47 Feb-93 1952 1985 1988 -36 1.87
48 Mar-93 2438 2030 1985 453 18.59
49 Apr-93 1954 2023 2030 -76 3.90
50 May-93 2228 2043 2023 205 9.22
51 Jun-93 2232 2062 2043 189 8.46
52 Jul-93 2210 2077 2062 148 6.70
53 Aug-93 2250 2094 2077 173 7.70
54 Sep-93 2284 2113 2094 190 8.31
55 Oct-93 2272 2129 2113 159 6.99
56 Nov-93 2354 2151 2129 225 9.56
57 Dec-93 2105 2147 2151 -46 2.21
58 Jan-94 1785 2111 2147 -362 20.27
59 Feb-94 2343 2134 2111 232 9.92
60 Mar-94 2559 2176 2134 425 16.61
61 Apr-94 2021 2161 2176 -155 7.69
62 May-94 2614 2206 2161 453 17.34
63 Jun-94 2442 2230 2206 236 9.66
64 Jul-94 2466 2253 2230 236 9.58
65 Aug-94 2716 2300 2253 463 17.03
66 Sep-94 2477 2317 2300 177 7.16
67 Oct-94 2395 2325 2317 78 3.24
68 Nov-94 2591 2352 2325 266 10.26
69 Dec-94 1861 2303 2352 -491 26.37
70 Jan-95 1573 2230 2303 -730 46.39
 A B C D E F G H I
71 Feb-95 1861 2193 2230 -369 19.81
72 Mar-95 1954 2169 2193 -239 12.22
73 Apr-95 1587 2111 2169 -582 36.67
74 May-95 1903 2090 2111 -208 10.92
75 Jun-95 1907 2072 2090 -183 9.59
76 Jul-95 1828 2047 2072 -244 13.33
77 Aug-95 1802 2023 2047 -245 13.61
78 Sep-95 1723 1993 2023 -300 17.40
79 Oct-95 1694 1963 1993 -299 17.64
80 Nov-95 1731 1940 1963 -232 13.40
81 Dec-95 1380 1884 1940 -560 40.56
82 Jan-96 1316 1827 1884 -568 43.14
83 Feb-96 1299 1774 1827 -528 40.64
84 Mar-96 1332 1730 1774 -442 33.20
85 Apr-96 1351 1692 1730 -379 28.05
86 May-96 1541 1677 1692 -151 9.80
87 Jun-96 1436 1653 1677 -241 16.78
88 Jul-96 1513 1639 1653 -140 9.24
89 Aug-96 1584 1633 1639 -55 3.46
90 Sep-96 1480 1618 1633 -153 10.36
91 Oct-96 1565 1613 1618 -53 3.39
92 Nov-96 1408 1592 1613 -205 14.54
93 Dec-96 1448 1578 1592 -144 9.96
94 Jan-97 1366 1557 1578 -212 15.51
95 Feb-97 1613 1562 1557 56 3.49
96 Mar-97 1897 1596 1562 335 17.64
97 Apr-97 1928 1629 1596 332 17.23
98 May-97 2007 1667 1629 378 18.83
99 Jun-97 1820 1682 1667 153 8.42
100 Jul-97 2051 1719 1682 369 17.99
101 Aug-97 2268 1774 1719 549 24.21
102 Sep-97 2382 1835 1774 608 25.53
103 Oct-97 2192 1870 1835 357 16.30
104 Nov-97 2303 1914 1870 433 18.78
105 Dec-97 2180 1940 1914 266 12.22
 A B C D E F G H I
106 Jan-98 1790 1925 1940 -150 8.40
107 Feb-98 2099 1943 1925 174 8.28
108 Mar-98 2595 2008 1943 652 25.14
109 Apr-98 2507 2058 2008 499 19.91
110 May-98 2485 2101 2058 427 17.19
111 Jun-98 2554 2146 2101 453 17.76
112 Jul-98 2342 2165 2146 196 8.37
113 Aug-98 2355 2184 2165 190 8.05
114 Sep-98 2694 2235 2184 510 18.91
115 Oct-98 2296 2241 2235 61 2.64
116 Nov-98 2287 2246 2241 46 1.99
117 Dec-98 2147 2236 2246 -99 4.61
118 Jan-99 1712 2184 2236 -524 30.61
119 Feb-99 2442 2210 2184 258 10.58
120 Mar-99 2758 2264 2210 548 19.89
121 Apr-99 2230 2261 2264 -34 1.54
122 May-99 2766 2311 2261 505 18.26
123 Jun-99 2706 2351 2311 395 14.58
124 Jul-99 2724 2388 2351 373 13.70
125 Aug-99 3087 2458 2388 699 22.64
126 Sep-99 3340 2546 2458 882 26.40
127 Oct-99 2875 2579 2546 329 11.43
128 Nov-99 3443 2666 2579 864 25.09
129 Dec-99 3300 2729 2666 634 19.23
130 Jan-00 2547 2711 2729 -182 7.14
131 Feb-00 3597 2799 2711 886 24.64
132 Mar-00 3645 2884 2799 846 23.20
133 Apr-00 2555 2851 2884 -329 12.88
134 May-00 2530 2819 2851 -321 12.69
135 Jun-00 2382 2775 2819 -437 18.34
136 Jul-00 1842 2682 2775 -933 50.67
137 Aug-00 1809 2595 2682 -873 48.26
138 Sep-00 1854 2521 2595 -741 39.95
139 Oct-00 1518 2420 2521 -1003 66.05
140 Nov-00 2359 2414 2420 -61 2.60
 A B C D E F G H I
141 Dec-00 1701 2343 2414 -713 41.93
142 Jan-01 1649 2273 2343 -694 42.08
143 Feb-01 2282 2274 2273 9 0.37
144 Mar-01 2185 2265 2274 -89 4.09
145 Apr-01 1811 2220 2265 -454 25.09
146 May-01 2658 2264 2220 438 16.48
147 Jun-01 2615 2299 2264 351 13.43
148 Jul-01 2817 2351 2299 518 18.39
149 Aug-01 3632 2479 2351 1281 35.28
150 Sep-01 2961 2527 2479 482 16.28
151 Oct-01 3309 2605 2527 782 23.63
152 Nov-01 2605
153 Dec-01 2605
 A B C D E F G H I
1 Single Exponential Smoothing
2 a1 SSE MSE 97250.91
Sum of square errors
3 0.5609140623 13712377.79 Target cell for Solver MAPE 11.41
4 Optimized smoothing
5 parameter between 0 and 1
6
7
8 Month Unit (Yt) Level (Lt) Forecast(Ft) Error (Et) |Et/Yt x 100|
9
10 Jan-90 1800 1800
11 Feb-90 1988 1905 1800 188 9.46
12 Mar-90 2096 2012 1905 191 9.09
13 Apr-90 1756 1869 2012 -256 14.60
14 May-90 2350 2139 1869 481 20.49
15 Jun-90 1871 1989 2139 -268 14.30
16 Jul-90 1843 1907 1989 -146 7.89
17 Aug-90 1930 1920 1907 23 1.20
18 Sep-90 1633 1759 1920 -287 17.57
19 Oct-90 1913 1845 1759 154 8.05
20 Nov-90 2018 1942 1845 173 8.56
21 Dec-90 1343 1606 1942 -599 44.62
22 Jan-91 1532 1565 1606 -74 4.84
23 Feb-91 1497 1527 1565 -68 4.51
24 Mar-91 1385 1447 1527 -142 10.23
25 Apr-91 1523 1490 1447 76 4.98
26 May-91 1933 1738 1490 443 22.93
27 Jun-91 1584 1652 1738 -154 9.74
28 Jul-91 2036 1867 1652 384 18.87
29 Aug-91 1776 1816 1867 -91 5.14
30 Sep-91 1715 1759 1816 -101 5.89
31 Oct-91 2111 1957 1759 352 16.66
32 Nov-91 1778 1856 1957 -179 10.05
33 Dec-91 1663 1748 1856 -193 11.63
34 Jan-92 1526 1623 1748 -222 14.54
35 Feb-92 1794 1719 1623 171 9.51
 A B C D E F G H I
36 Mar-92 1970 1860 1719 251 12.74
37 Apr-92 1896 1880 1860 36 1.91
38 May-92 1969 1930 1880 89 4.51
39 Jun-92 2124 2039 1930 194 9.13
40 Jul-92 2410 2247 2039 371 15.40
41 Aug-92 2116 2174 2247 -131 6.19
42 Sep-92 2343 2269 2174 169 7.23
43 Oct-92 2378 2330 2269 109 4.60
44 Nov-92 2091 2196 2330 -239 11.43
45 Dec-92 2208 2203 2196 12 0.55
46 Jan-93 1621 1876 2203 -582 35.89
47 Feb-93 1952 1919 1876 76 3.87
48 Mar-93 2438 2210 1919 519 21.30
49 Apr-93 1954 2066 2210 -256 13.10
50 May-93 2228 2157 2066 162 7.25
51 Jun-93 2232 2199 2157 75 3.36
52 Jul-93 2210 2205 2199 11 0.49
53 Aug-93 2250 2230 2205 45 1.99
54 Sep-93 2284 2260 2230 54 2.35
55 Oct-93 2272 2267 2260 12 0.51
56 Nov-93 2354 2316 2267 87 3.70
57 Dec-93 2105 2198 2316 -211 10.01
58 Jan-94 1785 1966 2198 -413 23.11
59 Feb-94 2343 2178 1966 377 16.08
60 Mar-94 2559 2392 2178 381 14.91
61 Apr-94 2021 2184 2392 -371 18.33
62 May-94 2614 2425 2184 430 16.46
63 Jun-94 2442 2435 2425 17 0.69
64 Jul-94 2466 2452 2435 31 1.27
65 Aug-94 2716 2600 2452 264 9.71
66 Sep-94 2477 2531 2600 -123 4.97
67 Oct-94 2395 2455 2531 -136 5.68
68 Nov-94 2591 2531 2455 136 5.26
69 Dec-94 1861 2155 2531 -670 36.01
70 Jan-95 1573 1829 2155 -582 37.02
 A B C D E F G H I
71 Feb-95 1861 1847 1829 32 1.74
72 Mar-95 1954 1907 1847 107 5.49
73 Apr-95 1587 1727 1907 -320 20.16
74 May-95 1903 1826 1727 176 9.22
75 Jun-95 1907 1871 1826 81 4.25
76 Jul-95 1828 1847 1871 -43 2.37
77 Aug-95 1802 1822 1847 -45 2.50
78 Sep-95 1723 1766 1822 -99 5.73
79 Oct-95 1694 1726 1766 -72 4.27
80 Nov-95 1731 1729 1726 5 0.30
81 Dec-95 1380 1533 1729 -349 25.27
82 Jan-96 1316 1411 1533 -217 16.50
83 Feb-96 1299 1348 1411 -112 8.65
84 Mar-96 1332 1339 1348 -16 1.23
85 Apr-96 1351 1346 1339 12 0.88
86 May-96 1541 1455 1346 195 12.67
87 Jun-96 1436 1444 1455 -19 1.34
88 Jul-96 1513 1483 1444 69 4.53
89 Aug-96 1584 1540 1483 101 6.38
90 Sep-96 1480 1506 1540 -60 4.03
91 Oct-96 1565 1539 1506 59 3.76
92 Nov-96 1408 1466 1539 -131 9.32
93 Dec-96 1448 1456 1466 -18 1.22
94 Jan-97 1366 1405 1456 -90 6.57
95 Feb-97 1613 1522 1405 208 12.87
96 Mar-97 1897 1732 1522 375 19.78
97 Apr-97 1928 1842 1732 196 10.15
98 May-97 2007 1935 1842 165 8.22
99 Jun-97 1820 1870 1935 -115 6.30
100 Jul-97 2051 1972 1870 181 8.81
101 Aug-97 2268 2138 1972 296 13.07
102 Sep-97 2382 2275 2138 244 10.25
103 Oct-97 2192 2228 2275 -83 3.78
104 Nov-97 2303 2270 2228 75 3.24
105 Dec-97 2180 2220 2270 -90 4.14
 A B C D E F G H I
106 Jan-98 1790 1979 2220 -430 24.00
107 Feb-98 2099 2046 1979 120 5.73
108 Mar-98 2595 2354 2046 549 21.15
109 Apr-98 2507 2440 2354 153 6.10
110 May-98 2485 2465 2440 45 1.82
111 Jun-98 2554 2515 2465 89 3.48
112 Jul-98 2342 2418 2515 -173 7.39
113 Aug-98 2355 2383 2418 -63 2.67
114 Sep-98 2694 2557 2383 311 11.56
115 Oct-98 2296 2411 2557 -261 11.38
116 Nov-98 2287 2341 2411 -124 5.41
117 Dec-98 2147 2232 2341 -194 9.05
118 Jan-99 1712 1940 2232 -520 30.39
119 Feb-99 2442 2222 1940 502 20.54
120 Mar-99 2758 2523 2222 536 19.44
121 Apr-99 2230 2358 2523 -293 13.12
122 May-99 2766 2587 2358 408 14.73
123 Jun-99 2706 2654 2587 119 4.40
124 Jul-99 2724 2693 2654 70 2.58
125 Aug-99 3087 2914 2693 394 12.76
126 Sep-99 3340 3153 2914 426 12.75
127 Oct-99 2875 2997 3153 -278 9.67
128 Nov-99 3443 3247 2997 446 12.95
129 Dec-99 3300 3277 3247 53 1.60
130 Jan-00 2547 2867 3277 -730 28.65
131 Feb-00 3597 3277 2867 730 20.28
132 Mar-00 3645 3483 3277 368 10.11
133 Apr-00 2555 2963 3483 -928 36.33
134 May-00 2530 2720 2963 -433 17.10
135 Jun-00 2382 2530 2720 -338 14.19
136 Jul-00 1842 2144 2530 -688 37.37
137 Aug-00 1809 1956 2144 -335 18.53
138 Sep-00 1854 1899 1956 -102 5.51
139 Oct-00 1518 1685 1899 -381 25.09
140 Nov-00 2359 2063 1685 674 28.56
 A B C D E F G H I
141 Dec-00 1701 1860 2063 -362 21.29
142 Jan-01 1649 1742 1860 -211 12.80
143 Feb-01 2282 2045 1742 540 23.68
144 Mar-01 2185 2123 2045 140 6.42
145 Apr-01 1811 1948 2123 -312 17.25
146 May-01 2658 2346 1948 710 26.71
147 Jun-01 2615 2497 2346 269 10.27
148 Jul-01 2817 2677 2497 320 11.36
149 Aug-01 3632 3212 2677 955 26.31
150 Sep-01 2961 3071 3212 -251 8.49
151 Oct-01 3309 3205 3071 238 7.18
152 Nov-01 3205
153 Dec-01 3205
 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
32874
32994
33117
33239
33359
33482
33604
33725
33848
33970
34090
34213
34335
34455
34578
34700
34820
34943
35065

Month
35186
35309
35431
35551
35674
35796
35916
36039
36161
36281
36404
Number of Dwelling Units Approved: Vic

36526
36647
36770
36892
37012
37135
Ft)
Unit (Yt)
Forecast(
 A B C D E F G H I
1 Single Exponential Smoothing
2 a1 SSE Initialisation Set
Initialisation Set: 0.1 19783074.17 MSE 151015.8
3
Jan-90 to Dec-00
4 MAPE 15.64
Test Set: Smoothing parameter
5 Jan 01 to Oct 01 between 0 and 1 Sum of square errors
6 Target cell for Solver Test Set
7 MSE 416847.1
8 Month Unit (Yt) Level (Lt) Forecast(Ft) Error (Et) |Et/Yt x 100| MAPE 20.60
9
10 Jan-90 1800 1800
11 Feb-90 1988 1819 1800 188 9.46
12 Mar-90 2096 1847 1819 277 13.23
13 Apr-90 1756 1837 1847 -91 5.15
14 May-90 2350 1889 1837 513 21.81
15 Jun-90 1871 1887 1889 -18 0.95
16 Jul-90 1843 1883 1887 -44 2.38
17 Aug-90 1930 1887 1883 47 2.46
18 Sep-90 1633 1862 1887 -254 15.57
19 Oct-90 1913 1867 1862 51 2.67
20 Nov-90 2018 1882 1867 151 7.48
21 Dec-90 1343 1828 1882 -539 40.14
22 Jan-91 1532 1799 1828 -296 19.33
23 Feb-91 1497 1768 1799 -302 20.14
24 Mar-91 1385 1730 1768 -383 27.68
25 Apr-91 1523 1709 1730 -207 13.60
26 May-91 1933 1732 1709 224 11.57
27 Jun-91 1584 1717 1732 -148 9.33
28 Jul-91 2036 1749 1717 319 15.67
29 Aug-91 1776 1752 1749 27 1.53
30 Sep-91 1715 1748 1752 -37 2.13
31 Oct-91 2111 1784 1748 363 17.20
32 Nov-91 1778 1784 1784 -6 0.35
33 Dec-91 1663 1772 1784 -121 7.25
34 Jan-92 1526 1747 1772 -246 16.09
35 Feb-92 1794 1752 1747 47 2.62
 A B C D E F G H I
36 Mar-92 1970 1774 1752 218 11.08
37 Apr-92 1896 1786 1774 122 6.46
38 May-92 1969 1804 1786 183 9.31
39 Jun-92 2124 1836 1804 320 15.06
40 Jul-92 2410 1893 1836 574 23.81
41 Aug-92 2116 1916 1893 223 10.52
42 Sep-92 2343 1958 1916 427 18.24
43 Oct-92 2378 2000 1958 420 17.64
44 Nov-92 2091 2009 2000 91 4.33
45 Dec-92 2208 2029 2009 199 8.99
46 Jan-93 1621 1988 2029 -408 25.19
47 Feb-93 1952 1985 1988 -36 1.87
48 Mar-93 2438 2030 1985 453 18.59
49 Apr-93 1954 2023 2030 -76 3.90
50 May-93 2228 2043 2023 205 9.22
51 Jun-93 2232 2062 2043 189 8.46
52 Jul-93 2210 2077 2062 148 6.70
53 Aug-93 2250 2094 2077 173 7.70
54 Sep-93 2284 2113 2094 190 8.31
55 Oct-93 2272 2129 2113 159 6.99
56 Nov-93 2354 2151 2129 225 9.56
57 Dec-93 2105 2147 2151 -46 2.21
58 Jan-94 1785 2111 2147 -362 20.27
59 Feb-94 2343 2134 2111 232 9.92
60 Mar-94 2559 2176 2134 425 16.61
61 Apr-94 2021 2161 2176 -155 7.69
62 May-94 2614 2206 2161 453 17.34
63 Jun-94 2442 2230 2206 236 9.66
64 Jul-94 2466 2253 2230 236 9.58
65 Aug-94 2716 2300 2253 463 17.03
66 Sep-94 2477 2317 2300 177 7.16
67 Oct-94 2395 2325 2317 78 3.24
68 Nov-94 2591 2352 2325 266 10.26
69 Dec-94 1861 2303 2352 -491 26.37
70 Jan-95 1573 2230 2303 -730 46.39
 A B C D E F G H I
71 Feb-95 1861 2193 2230 -369 19.81
72 Mar-95 1954 2169 2193 -239 12.22
73 Apr-95 1587 2111 2169 -582 36.67
74 May-95 1903 2090 2111 -208 10.92
75 Jun-95 1907 2072 2090 -183 9.59
76 Jul-95 1828 2047 2072 -244 13.33
77 Aug-95 1802 2023 2047 -245 13.61
78 Sep-95 1723 1993 2023 -300 17.40
79 Oct-95 1694 1963 1993 -299 17.64
80 Nov-95 1731 1940 1963 -232 13.40
81 Dec-95 1380 1884 1940 -560 40.56
82 Jan-96 1316 1827 1884 -568 43.14
83 Feb-96 1299 1774 1827 -528 40.64
84 Mar-96 1332 1730 1774 -442 33.20
85 Apr-96 1351 1692 1730 -379 28.05
86 May-96 1541 1677 1692 -151 9.80
87 Jun-96 1436 1653 1677 -241 16.78
88 Jul-96 1513 1639 1653 -140 9.24
89 Aug-96 1584 1633 1639 -55 3.46
90 Sep-96 1480 1618 1633 -153 10.36
91 Oct-96 1565 1613 1618 -53 3.39
92 Nov-96 1408 1592 1613 -205 14.54
93 Dec-96 1448 1578 1592 -144 9.96
94 Jan-97 1366 1557 1578 -212 15.51
95 Feb-97 1613 1562 1557 56 3.49
96 Mar-97 1897 1596 1562 335 17.64
97 Apr-97 1928 1629 1596 332 17.23
98 May-97 2007 1667 1629 378 18.83
99 Jun-97 1820 1682 1667 153 8.42
100 Jul-97 2051 1719 1682 369 17.99
101 Aug-97 2268 1774 1719 549 24.21
102 Sep-97 2382 1835 1774 608 25.53
103 Oct-97 2192 1870 1835 357 16.30
104 Nov-97 2303 1914 1870 433 18.78
105 Dec-97 2180 1940 1914 266 12.22
 A B C D E F G H I
106 Jan-98 1790 1925 1940 -150 8.40
107 Feb-98 2099 1943 1925 174 8.28
108 Mar-98 2595 2008 1943 652 25.14
109 Apr-98 2507 2058 2008 499 19.91
110 May-98 2485 2101 2058 427 17.19
111 Jun-98 2554 2146 2101 453 17.76
112 Jul-98 2342 2165 2146 196 8.37
113 Aug-98 2355 2184 2165 190 8.05
114 Sep-98 2694 2235 2184 510 18.91
115 Oct-98 2296 2241 2235 61 2.64
116 Nov-98 2287 2246 2241 46 1.99
117 Dec-98 2147 2236 2246 -99 4.61
118 Jan-99 1712 2184 2236 -524 30.61
119 Feb-99 2442 2210 2184 258 10.58
120 Mar-99 2758 2264 2210 548 19.89
121 Apr-99 2230 2261 2264 -34 1.54
122 May-99 2766 2311 2261 505 18.26
123 Jun-99 2706 2351 2311 395 14.58
124 Jul-99 2724 2388 2351 373 13.70
125 Aug-99 3087 2458 2388 699 22.64
126 Sep-99 3340 2546 2458 882 26.40
127 Oct-99 2875 2579 2546 329 11.43
128 Nov-99 3443 2666 2579 864 25.09
129 Dec-99 3300 2729 2666 634 19.23
130 Jan-00 2547 2711 2729 -182 7.14
131 Feb-00 3597 2799 2711 886 24.64
132 Mar-00 3645 2884 2799 846 23.20
133 Apr-00 2555 2851 2884 -329 12.88
134 May-00 2530 2819 2851 -321 12.69
135 Jun-00 2382 2775 2819 -437 18.34
136 Jul-00 1842 2682 2775 -933 50.67
137 Aug-00 1809 2595 2682 -873 48.26
138 Sep-00 1854 2521 2595 -741 39.95
139 Oct-00 1518 2420 2521 -1003 66.05
140 Nov-00 2359 2414 2420 -61 2.60
 A B C D E F G H I
141 Dec-00 1701 2343 2414 -713 41.93
142 Jan-01 1649 2343 -694 42.08
143 Feb-01 2282 2343 -61 2.67
144 Mar-01 2185 2343 -158 7.23
145 Apr-01 1811 2343 -532 29.37
146 May-01 2658 2343 315 11.86
147 Jun-01 2615 2343 272 10.41
148 Jul-01 2817 2343 474 16.83
149 Aug-01 3632 2343 1289 35.49
150 Sep-01 2961 2343 618 20.88
151 Oct-01 3309 2343 966 29.20
 A B C D E F G H I
1 Single Exponential Smoothing
2 a1 SSE Initialisation Set
Initialisation Set: 0.5387320788 11539416.02
Sum of square errors
MSE 88087.15
3 Target cell for Solver
Jan-90 to Dec-00
4 MAPE 11.15
Test Set:
5 Jan 01 to Oct 01
6 Smoothing parameter Test Set
between 0 and 1
7 MSE 884699.6
8 Month Unit (Yt) Level (Lt) Forecast(Ft) Error (Et) |Et/Yt x 100| MAPE 27.08
9
10 Jan-90 1800 1800
11 Feb-90 1988 1901 1800 188 9.46
12 Mar-90 2096 2006 1901 195 9.29
13 Apr-90 1756 1871 2006 -250 14.25
14 May-90 2350 2129 1871 479 20.37
15 Jun-90 1871 1990 2129 -258 13.80
16 Jul-90 1843 1911 1990 -147 7.98
17 Aug-90 1930 1921 1911 19 0.99
18 Sep-90 1633 1766 1921 -288 17.65
19 Oct-90 1913 1845 1766 147 7.69
20 Nov-90 2018 1938 1845 173 8.56
21 Dec-90 1343 1618 1938 -595 44.32
22 Jan-91 1532 1571 1618 -86 5.59
23 Feb-91 1497 1531 1571 -74 4.97
24 Mar-91 1385 1453 1531 -146 10.57
25 Apr-91 1523 1490 1453 70 4.63
26 May-91 1933 1729 1490 443 22.89
27 Jun-91 1584 1651 1729 -145 9.15
28 Jul-91 2036 1858 1651 385 18.92
29 Aug-91 1776 1814 1858 -82 4.64
30 Sep-91 1715 1761 1814 -99 5.77
31 Oct-91 2111 1949 1761 350 16.60
32 Nov-91 1778 1857 1949 -171 9.64
33 Dec-91 1663 1753 1857 -194 11.67
34 Jan-92 1526 1630 1753 -227 14.84
35 Feb-92 1794 1719 1630 164 9.11
 A B C D E F G H I
36 Mar-92 1970 1854 1719 251 12.76
37 Apr-92 1896 1877 1854 42 2.21
38 May-92 1969 1926 1877 92 4.69
39 Jun-92 2124 2033 1926 198 9.30
40 Jul-92 2410 2236 2033 377 15.65
41 Aug-92 2116 2171 2236 -120 5.67
42 Sep-92 2343 2264 2171 172 7.33
43 Oct-92 2378 2325 2264 114 4.80
44 Nov-92 2091 2199 2325 -234 11.21
45 Dec-92 2208 2204 2199 9 0.40
46 Jan-93 1621 1890 2204 -583 35.96
47 Feb-93 1952 1923 1890 62 3.18
48 Mar-93 2438 2201 1923 515 21.11
49 Apr-93 1954 2068 2201 -247 12.62
50 May-93 2228 2154 2068 160 7.19
51 Jun-93 2232 2196 2154 78 3.49
52 Jul-93 2210 2204 2196 14 0.63
53 Aug-93 2250 2229 2204 46 2.06
54 Sep-93 2284 2258 2229 55 2.43
55 Oct-93 2272 2266 2258 14 0.60
56 Nov-93 2354 2313 2266 88 3.75
57 Dec-93 2105 2201 2313 -208 9.90
58 Jan-94 1785 1977 2201 -416 23.31
59 Feb-94 2343 2174 1977 366 15.62
60 Mar-94 2559 2381 2174 385 15.04
61 Apr-94 2021 2187 2381 -360 17.84
62 May-94 2614 2417 2187 427 16.32
63 Jun-94 2442 2431 2417 25 1.02
64 Jul-94 2466 2450 2431 35 1.44
65 Aug-94 2716 2593 2450 266 9.81
66 Sep-94 2477 2531 2593 -116 4.69
67 Oct-94 2395 2458 2531 -136 5.66
68 Nov-94 2591 2529 2458 133 5.15
69 Dec-94 1861 2169 2529 -668 35.92
70 Jan-95 1573 1848 2169 -596 37.91
 A B C D E F G H I
71 Feb-95 1861 1855 1848 13 0.69
72 Mar-95 1954 1908 1855 99 5.06
73 Apr-95 1587 1735 1908 -321 20.25
74 May-95 1903 1826 1735 168 8.82
75 Jun-95 1907 1869 1826 81 4.27
76 Jul-95 1828 1847 1869 -41 2.27
77 Aug-95 1802 1823 1847 -45 2.50
78 Sep-95 1723 1769 1823 -100 5.79
79 Oct-95 1694 1729 1769 -75 4.43
80 Nov-95 1731 1730 1729 2 0.14
81 Dec-95 1380 1541 1730 -350 25.36
82 Jan-96 1316 1420 1541 -225 17.13
83 Feb-96 1299 1355 1420 -121 9.31
84 Mar-96 1332 1343 1355 -23 1.71
85 Apr-96 1351 1347 1343 8 0.63
86 May-96 1541 1452 1347 194 12.58
87 Jun-96 1436 1443 1452 -16 1.08
88 Jul-96 1513 1481 1443 70 4.62
89 Aug-96 1584 1536 1481 103 6.52
90 Sep-96 1480 1506 1536 -56 3.81
91 Oct-96 1565 1538 1506 59 3.77
92 Nov-96 1408 1468 1538 -130 9.22
93 Dec-96 1448 1457 1468 -20 1.37
94 Jan-97 1366 1408 1457 -91 6.67
95 Feb-97 1613 1518 1408 205 12.71
96 Mar-97 1897 1722 1518 379 19.95
97 Apr-97 1928 1833 1722 206 10.66
98 May-97 2007 1927 1833 174 8.66
99 Jun-97 1820 1869 1927 -107 5.87
100 Jul-97 2051 1967 1869 182 8.86
101 Aug-97 2268 2129 1967 301 13.26
102 Sep-97 2382 2265 2129 253 10.61
103 Oct-97 2192 2226 2265 -73 3.35
104 Nov-97 2303 2267 2226 77 3.35
105 Dec-97 2180 2220 2267 -87 4.01
 A B C D E F G H I
106 Jan-98 1790 1988 2220 -430 24.04
107 Feb-98 2099 2048 1988 111 5.26
108 Mar-98 2595 2343 2048 547 21.08
109 Apr-98 2507 2431 2343 164 6.55
110 May-98 2485 2460 2431 54 2.16
111 Jun-98 2554 2511 2460 94 3.67
112 Jul-98 2342 2420 2511 -169 7.20
113 Aug-98 2355 2385 2420 -65 2.75
114 Sep-98 2694 2551 2385 309 11.47
115 Oct-98 2296 2414 2551 -255 11.12
116 Nov-98 2287 2345 2414 -127 5.55
117 Dec-98 2147 2239 2345 -198 9.25
118 Jan-99 1712 1955 2239 -527 30.76
119 Feb-99 2442 2217 1955 487 19.95
120 Mar-99 2758 2509 2217 541 19.60
121 Apr-99 2230 2359 2509 -279 12.49
122 May-99 2766 2578 2359 407 14.73
123 Jun-99 2706 2647 2578 128 4.73
124 Jul-99 2724 2688 2647 77 2.83
125 Aug-99 3087 2903 2688 399 12.91
126 Sep-99 3340 3139 2903 437 13.08
127 Oct-99 2875 2997 3139 -264 9.17
128 Nov-99 3443 3237 2997 446 12.97
129 Dec-99 3300 3271 3237 63 1.91
130 Jan-00 2547 2881 3271 -724 28.42
131 Feb-00 3597 3267 2881 716 19.91
132 Mar-00 3645 3471 3267 378 10.38
133 Apr-00 2555 2977 3471 -916 35.83
134 May-00 2530 2736 2977 -447 17.68
135 Jun-00 2382 2545 2736 -354 14.87
136 Jul-00 1842 2166 2545 -703 38.19
137 Aug-00 1809 1974 2166 -357 19.76
138 Sep-00 1854 1909 1974 -120 6.47
139 Oct-00 1518 1698 1909 -391 25.78
140 Nov-00 2359 2054 1698 661 28.00
 A B C D E F G H I
141 Dec-00 1701 1864 2054 -353 20.77
142 Jan-01 1649 1864 -215 13.04
143 Feb-01 2282 1864 418 18.32
144 Mar-01 2185 1864 321 14.69
145 Apr-01 1811 1864 -53 2.93
146 May-01 2658 1864 794 29.87
147 Jun-01 2615 1864 751 28.72
148 Jul-01 2817 1864 953 33.83
149 Aug-01 3632 1864 1768 48.68
150 Sep-01 2961 1864 1097 37.05
151 Oct-01 3309 1864 1445 43.67
 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
32874
32994
33117
33239
33359
33482
33604
33725
33848
33970
34090
34213
34335
34455
34578
34700
34820
34943
35065

Month
35186
35309
35431
35551
35674
35796
35916
36039
36161
36281
Number of Dwelling Units Approved: Vic

36404
36526
36647
36770
36892
37012
37135
Ft)
Unit (Yt)
Forecast(