Evaluating evidences

For each of the following passages, identify whether the evidence and reasons
are relevant to the conclusion.

a. Some people say that calling people names because of the way they look is
offensive. My friend is very overweight and people call him names for being fat. He
says he doesn't mind as he finds horrible things to call back. This shows there is no
harm in calling people names as they can just retaliate if they want to.

Case example: one case cannot represent all other cases.

b. Is vegetarianism really healthier than eating meat? The answer is yes! There
have been several studies outlining the various advantages that being vegetarian
has over eating meat regularly. Furthermore, just ask vegetarians and they will
quickly explain how their diet is superior to that of non-vegetarians. More importantly,
many restaurants and businesses are opening that focus on vegetarian options and
menu items; so clearly, vegetarianism is healthier than eating meat.

Research studies evidence: insufficient information

Testimonial evidence: vegetarians are likely to think their diet is superior to that of
non-vegetarians

Observation evidence: may be restaurants include vegetarian options for other

purpose, not health

c. The Earth supports living organisms. Europa, one of the moons of Jupiter, is like
Earth in that both have large oceans of liquid water. Therefore, Europa supports
living organisms.

Analogy evidence: Europa have large oceans of liquid water doesn’t mean it will
support living organisms, there are many other factors needed for organisms to stay
alive

d. We all know that people should not drive while they are drunk. Texting while
driving is like driving while drunk in that both make people react more slowly to road
hazards. Therefore, people should not text while driving.
Analogy evidence: in this case the analogy is true because both texting while driving
and driving while drunk are dangerous

e. Einstein was a pacifist. Therefore, pacifism must be right.

Appeals to authority evidence: Einstein is not a professional politician

f. My car dealer recommends that I pay $300 to rustproof my car. He should know; I
guess I’d better do it.

Testimonial evidence: being a car dealer doesn’t mean he has to know how to
rustproof a car

Problems with surveys/questionnaires

Identify the problems in these survey questions

1. How often do you exercise?

A. Rarely

B. Regularly

C. Occasionally

D. Usually

Need more specific abt the number of time to easier to choose

2. Do you agree that acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) can be

transmitted by shaking hands with a person with AIDS or through other means of
physical contact?

3. How often does the computer system go down?

A. Less than once per month

B. Once per month

C. Once per week

 D. More than once per week

4. How many cigarettes do you smoke per day?

A. None

B. 5 or less

C. 5-25

D. 25 or more

5. Do you do physical exercise, such as cycling? have bias wording: cycling

6. Do you think the school board should stop spending taxpayers’ money on non-
essential arts programs in elementary schools? have bias wording: non-essential

7. In the late 1990’s Scotland was considering independence from England. An

opinion poll showed that 51% of Scots favored "independence." Another poll taken at
the same time showed that only 34% favored being "separate" from England. What
could be the reasons for the different result? Because the wording’ independence’
and ‘separate’ of the questions has a big effect on results.

Problems with sampling

Try to identify the source of bias in each scenario, and speculate on the
direction of the bias (overestimate or underestimate).

Glossary:

ü Biased wording of survey questions can cause people to favor certain

responses over others.

ü Response bias: people are systematically dishonest when answering a

question.

ü Undercoverage: the researcher systematically excludes members of the

population from being in the sample.

ü Nonresponse: people chosen for the sample cannot be reached or refuse

to participate.
 ü Convenient sampling: the sample is taken from a group of people easy to
contact or to reach.

ü Voluntary response sampling: a sample made up of volunteers who often

have strong opinions on a topic on either direction.

Scenario 1

David hosts a podcast and he is curious how much his listeners like his show. He
decides to start with an online poll. He asks his listeners to visit his website and
participate in the poll.

The poll shows that 89% percent of the 200 respondents "love" his show.

1. What is the most concerning source of bias in this scenario?

A. Response bias

B. Undercoverage

C. Voluntary response sampling

2. Which direction of bias is more likely in this scenario?

A. 89% is probably an underestimate of the percentage of all listeners that love

the show.
B. 89% is probably an overestimate of the percentage of all listeners that love
the show.
C. 89% is probably an unbiased estimate.

Scenario 2

David hosts a podcast and he is curious how much his listeners like his show. He
decides to poll the next 100 listeners who send him fan emails. They don't all
respond, but 94 of the 97 listeners who responded said they "loved" his show.

1. What is the most concerning source of bias in this scenario?

A. Convenience sampling
 B. Nonresponse
C. Voluntary response sampling

2. Which direction of bias is more likely in this scenario?

A. The results are probably an underestimate of the percentage of all listeners that
love the show.

B. The results are probably an overestimate of the percentage of all listeners that
love the show.

C. The results are probably an unbiased estimate.

Scenario 3

A senator wanted to know about how people in her state felt about internet privacy
issues. She conducted a poll by calling 100 people whose names were randomly
sampled from the phone book (note that mobile phones and unlisted numbers aren't
in phone books). The senator's office called those numbers until they got a response
from all 100 people chosen.

The poll showed that 42% of respondents were "very concerned" about internet
privacy.

1. What is the most concerning source of bias in this scenario?

A. Convenience sampling
B. Undercoverage
C. Voluntary response sampling

2. Which direction of bias is more likely in this scenario?

A. 42 percent is probably an underestimate of the percentage of people in her

state concerned about internet privacy.

B. 42 percent is probably an overestimate of the percentage of people in her

state concerned about internet privacy.

C. 42 percent is probably an unbiased estimate.

Scenario 4
A senator wanted to know about how people in her state felt about internet privacy
issues. She conducted a poll by calling people using random digit dialing, where
computers randomly generate phone numbers so unlisted and mobile numbers can
still be reached. They called over 1000 random phone numbers—most people didn't
answer—until they had reached 100 respondents.

The poll showed that 46% of respondents were "very concerned" about internet
privacy.

1. What is the most concerning source of bias in this scenario?

A. Convenience sampling
B. Nonresponse
C. Voluntary response sampling

2. Which direction of bias is more likely in this scenario?

A. 46 percent is probably an underestimate of the percentage of people in her

state concerned about internet privacy.

B. 46 percent is probably an overestimate of the percentage of people in her

state concerned about internet privacy.

C. 46 percent is probably an unbiased estimate.

Scenario 5

A high school wanted to know what percent of its students smoke cigarettes. During
the week when students visited the counselors to schedule classes, they asked
every student in person if they smoked cigarettes or not.

The data showed that 5 percent of students smoked cigarettes.

1. What is the most concerning source of bias in this scenario?

A. Biased wording
B. Voluntary response
C. Biased response

2. Which direction of bias is more likely in this scenario?

A. The results probably underestimate of the percentage of students who smoke

cigarettes.
 B. The results probably overestimate the percentage of students who smoke
cigarettes.

C. The results are probably an unbiased estimate.

Scenario 6

A high school wanted to know what percent of its students smoke cigarettes.
Counselors selected a random sample of students to take a survey on drug use. One
of the questions reads, "If you are under the age of 18 years, do you illegally smoke
cigarettes?"

The data showed that 5 percent of students smoked cigarettes.

1. What is the most concerning source of bias in this scenario?

A. Biased wording
B. Voluntary response
C. Convenience sampling

2. Which direction of bias is more likely in this scenario?

A. The results probably underestimate of the percentage of students who smoke

cigarettes.

B. The results probably overestimate the percentage of students who smoke

cigarettes.

C. The results are probably an unbiased estimate.

Scenario 7

Four animal charities wished to know the views of the public on whether pets taken
overseas should be held in quarantine before being allowed to re-enter the country.
Each one selected the sample in a different way. Which sample is the most
accurate?

Sample 1

Charity 1 chose 1000 dog-owners from across the nation. The survey was balanced
to ensure that roughly equal numbers were interviewed in every part of the country.

Sample 2
Charity 2 chose 1000 dog-owners from across the nation. The survey was balanced
to ensure that more people were included in the survey in parts of the country which
had large populations, and fewer representatives were questioned if the population
was low.

Sample 3

Charity 3 chose 1000 pet-owners from across the nation. The sample was chosen to
ensure that a broad range of pet-owners were included, including owners of snakes,
budgies and tropical spiders.

Sample 4

Charity 4 chose 1000 people, representing a variety of pet-owners and people who
do not own pets. The sample was selected from every county, weighted to include
more people from heavily populated areas.

Scenario 8

Medical marijuana could be a huge step toward more effectively treating cancer
patients. While some people argue that legalizing medical marijuana will increase
recreational use of the drug, I argue, “Where is the proof for such an assertion?” Last
month, 75 people were surveyed in Detroit, Michigan, and were asked if they believe
that legalizing medical marijuana will increase recreational use of the drug in their
state. Ninety-three percent responded that they did not believe legalizing medical
marijuana would increase recreational use of the drug. Therefore, our national
lawmakers should pass a law legalizing medical marijuana.

Undercoverage

Scenario 9

People who join online dating services tend to succeed in finding a good match.
Researchers conducted an online survey of 229 people, aged 18 to 65, who had all
used an Internet dating site. The survey asked respondents about their primary
relationship from the online experience. The research showed that 94 percent of
those surveyed saw their “e-partners” again after first meeting them, and the
relationships lasted for an average of at least seven months.

Undercoverage