2021 NANJING
Calculation Method of Electric Vehicle Power
Consumption Based on Naive Bayes Classification
Fu Zhixin
Hohai University
College of Energy and Electrical Engineering College of Energy and Electrical Engineering
Nanjing China
zhixinfu@hhu.edu.cn
2021 IEEE Sustainable Power and Energy Conference (iSPEC) | 978-1-6654-1439-5/21/$31.00 ©2021 IEEE | DOI: 10.1109/iSPEC53008.2021.9735457
Abstract—Electric vehicle charging load forecasting is the
basis of charging station planning and construction and electric
vehicle dispatching. Electric vehicle power consumption
calculation is an important part of load forecasting. This paper
proposes a method for calculating the power consumption of
electric vehicles based on Naive Bayesian classification. Firstly,
the problems faced by electric vehicle power consumption
calculation and the application of naive Bayesian classification
in electric vehicle power consumption calculation are analyzed.
Then, based on the principle of Naive Bayesian classification, a
calculation model of electric vehicle power consumption is
established. Finally, based on some electric vehicle travel data in
Nanjing in June 2021, simulation calculations are performed
using Python software. The simulation results show that the
proposed method has high accuracy in calculating the power
consumption of electric vehicles and is simple to operate.
Keywords—Electric vehicle; Load forecasting;
Bayesian classification; Power consumption calculation
I. INTRODUCTION
With the global energy shortage and the development of
new energy technologies, the number of electric vehicles is
increasing rapidly and is gradually replacing traditional fuel
vehicles. Electric vehicle load forecasting is the basis of
charging station planning and construction and electric
vehicle scheduling. It is of great significance to the design of
electric vehicle mileage, the formulation of charging station
electricity prices, and the development of urban transportation
construction and the electric vehicle industry.
In recent years, domestic and foreign scholars have
conducted a lot of research on electric vehicle load forecasting.
Literature [1] proposes a method for modeling the probability
of the temporal and spatial distribution of electric vehicle
charging load based on dynamic traffic flow. The established
model is composed of three parts: a traffic network model, a
vehicle temporal and spatial transfer model, and a resident
travel probability model. Literature [2] established an electric
vehicle model based on the analysis of the characteristics of
electric vehicle charging load, using the six influencing factors
of daily driving distance, initial charging time, charging power,
charging time, initial state of charge and electric vehicle
ownership. And literature [2] describes in detail the steps of
using Monte Carlo simulation algorithm to solve the model.
In addition, data-driven deep learning methods have also
achieved good results in the field of electric vehicle charging
load forecasting[3-4]. The above research on electric vehicle
load forecasting must consider the power consumption of
electric vehicles, and calculate the power consumption of
electric vehicles to provide a data reference for charging load
forecasting, and the above-mentioned research cannot
accurately calculate the electric vehicle’s power consumption.
Power consumption, only by improving the accuracy of
This work is supported by State Grid Corporation of China Research Program
(No. 5418-202018247A-0-0-00).
978-1-6654-1439-5/21/$31.00 ©2021 IEEE
Paper No. iSPEC 2021CP0269
Authorized licensed use limited to: Yildirim Beyazit Univ. Downloaded on November 04,2022 at 11:16:42 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
Bao Hanzhou Yuan Yue
Hohai University Hohai University
College of Energy and Electrical Engineering
Nanjing China Nanjing China
1063995340@qq.com yyuan@hhu.edu.cn
electric vehicle power consumption calculations, can it
provide a reliable basis for load forecasting.
The power consumption of electric vehicles is related to
many influencing factors. It is extremely difficult to accurately
obtain the power consumption per kilometer. Its value is
generally 0.15~0.30kW h/km, depending on factors such as
the battery life, traffic index, driver’s driving habits,
temperature, and battery energy management system
efficiency. Traffic congestion will not only cause the vehicle's
driving speed to drop, but also cause the vehicle to brake and
start frequently, which will increase the additional power
consumption. The change in ambient temperature not only
affects the performance of the power battery, but also when
the car air conditioner is turned on in hot weather will also
cause additional power consumption. The literature [1]
Naive comprehensively considers the effects of traffic and
temperature to calculate the power consumption per unit
mileage of electric vehicles. Literature [5] is based on the
actual road driving data of electric vehicles for modeling, and
the analysis shows that the actual congestion degree of
different levels of roads and the driving state of vehicles will
affect the power consumption per unit mileage of electric
vehicles. Therefore, according to the "Urban Road
Engineering Design Code", literature [5] establish a model of
electricity consumption per unit mileage of electric vehicles
for roads above grade 3 in cities. Literature [6] established an
electric vehicle model through Cruise software, and when
calculating the power consumption per unit mileage, three
random factors of temperature, vehicle speed and driving
behavior were mainly considered. Literature [7] established a
model of electric vehicle power consumption per unit mileage
considering the influence of passenger load. Literature [8]
uses the relationship between the average speed and the power
consumption of electric vehicles to calculate the power
consumption per unit mileage by predicting the average speed
of the car. The above methods predict the power consumption
per unit mileage of electric vehicles to a certain extent, but the
research process is more complicated and difficult.
In order to improve the accuracy of the calculation of
electric vehicle power consumption and reduce the difficulty
of calculation, this article starts from the statistical point of
view, and uses the principle of naive Bayes classification to
propose an electric vehicle power consumption based on the
naive Bayes classification. Firstly, obtain the historical travel
data of electric vehicles, including the power consumption of
electric vehicles, the types of electric vehicles, the distance
traveled, and the travel time. The type of electric vehicles, the
distance traveled, and the travel time of electric vehicles are
used as characteristic attributes to form a training sample set.
Secondly, calculate the frequency of each type of electric
vehicle power consumption in the training sample and the
conditional probability estimation of each feature attribute
division for each type of electric vehicle power consumption,
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and record the result to form a classifier. Finally, the classifier
is used to predict the power consumption of electric vehicles
with known characteristic attributes but unknown power
consumption. This paper uses Python software and takes part
of the travel data of electric vehicles in Nanjing, Jiangsu
Province in June 2021 as an example to carry out experimental
simulations to verify that the method can calculate the power
consumption of electric vehicles more accurately.
II. CONCLUSION METHOD OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE POWER
CONSUMPION
A. Analysis of Calculation Methods of Electric Vehicle
Power Consumption
It can be seen from the above analysis that the current
research mainly analyzes and calculates the power
consumption of electric vehicles from the aspects of
temperature, vehicle speed, traffic conditions, driving
behavior, etc. However, it is not easy to obtain data such as
temperature, vehicle speed, traffic conditions, and driving
behavior. The changes of these data are irregular and change
greatly in different scenarios. Not only that, when the power
consumption is calculated while considering these factors at
the same time, the established model will become more
complicated, and the calculation will be more difficult.
Therefore, in order to ensure the accuracy of the calculation of
electric vehicle power consumption and reduce the difficulty
of calculation, this paper proposes a calculation method for
electric vehicle power consumption based on naive Bayesian
classification.
B. Application of Naive Bayes Classification in Calculation
of Electric Vehicle Power Consumption
Naive Bayes classification is mainly based on Bayes'
theorem (𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)𝑃(𝐵)
), and its ideological basis is:
𝑃(𝐴)
For the given item to be classified, the probability of each
category appearing under the condition of the occurrence of
this item is solved, which category has the greatest probability
of appearing, and then the category to be classified is
considered to belong to which category. It is mainly divided
into three stages: Firstly, a part of the data is known, the
characteristic attributes are determined according to the
specific situation, and each characteristic attribute is
appropriately divided, and then a part of the items to be
classified is classified to form a training sample set. Secondly,
calculate the frequency of each category in the training sample
and the conditional probability estimation of each feature
attribute division for each category, and record the results to
form a classifier. Finally, use the classifier to classify the items
to be classified with known feature attributes but unknown
categories, and solve the probability of each category
appearing under the condition of the occurrence of this item.
Which category has the highest probability of occurrence, then
consider which category the item to be classified belongs to.
The process of calculating the power consumption of
electric vehicles by naive Bayes classification is shown in
Figure 1:
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Obtain historical
travel data of
electric vehicles
Divide feature
attributes to form
training samples
1.Calculate the frequency of each
power consumption in the training
sample.
2.Calculate the conditional
probability estimation of each
characteristic attribute division for
each power consumption.
Enter a set of
travel data for
electric vehicles
Classifier with known
characteristics and
unknown power
consumption.
Calculate the
power
consumption of
each electric car
Fig. 1. Calculation process of electric vehicle power consumption based
on Naive Bayes classification
Firstly, according to the type, mileage, travel time, and
power consumption of electric vehicles known in historical
data, the type, mileage, and travel time of electric vehicles are
used as characteristic attributes, and each type of power
consumption is regarded as a category. Form a collection of
training samples. Secondly, calculate the frequency of each
power consumption in the training sample and the conditional
probability estimation of each feature attribute division for
each power consumption, and record the result to form a
classifier. Finally, use the classifier to predict the power
consumption of electric vehicles with known characteristic
attributes but unknown power consumption, and solve the
probability of various power consumption under the
condition of determining each characteristic attribute, and
which power consumption occurs with the greatest
probability, the power consumption of this electric vehicle is
considered to be this.
According to the above analysis, compared with the
traditional calculation method, because the Naive Bayesian
classification uses the historical travel data of electric
vehicles as a reference when calculating the power
consumption of electric vehicles, there is no need to directly
consider temperature, vehicle speed, and battery. , traffic and
other factors, so it has strong reliability and high accuracy,
and at the same time reduces the difficulty of model
establishment and the difficulty of calculation.
III. CALCULATION MODEL OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE POWER
CONSUMPTION BASED ON NAIVE BAYES CLASSIFICATION
Model establishment is divided into three stages:
The first stage-the preparatory work stage, to obtain the
historical travel data of electric vehicles, including the type of
electric vehicle, travel distance, travel time, and power
consumption. The type, travel distance, and travel time of the
electric vehicle are set as characteristic attributes, set as a1 ,
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a 2 , a3 ; each power consumption is set as a category, set as
c j , j  1, C  , C indicates that there are several power
consumptions in the historical travel data, thus forming
training sample collection.
The second stage-the classifier training stage, calculate the
frequency P ( c j ) of each power consumption in the training
sample, c j represents the number of samples with power
consumption c j , D represents the total number of samples,
as shown in formula (1):
It can be predicted that the power consumption of electric
vehicle X is ccmp .
IV. CASE ANALYSIS
This article uses part of the historical travel data of electric
vehicles in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province from June 1st to June
15th, 2021. 5000 sets of daily data are taken. Each set of data
includes the power consumption of the vehicle, the type of the
vehicle, the distance traveled, and travel time. Take the data
from June 1 to June 10 as the training set to form a classifier,
and use part of the data from June 11 to June 15 as the test set
to verify the simulation results.

cj In the training sample, the characteristic attributes are

P (c j ) = , j  1, C  (1) taken as the type of vehicle, the number of traveled mileage
D and the travel duration. The types of vehicles include buses,
time-sharing rental vehicle, and online taxis. In order to
Calculate the conditional probability estimation P ai c j ( ) simplify the calculation, take out the data that the travel
mileage does not exceed 50km and the travel duration does
of each characteristic attribute for each power consumption, not exceed 3 hours. The simulation results are as follows:
as shown in equation (2):

P ( ai c j )
Power consumption

(
P ai c j =) P (c j )
, i = 1, 2,3; j  1, C  (2)
16

14
Predictive value
MRE of prediction

12
Record all the above calculation results to form a classifier.
Power consumption/kWh

10
The third stage-the application stage, using the data
8
calculated in the classifier, the type of electric vehicle a1 ,
6
travel mileage a 2 , travel time a3 of the three characteristics
4
of the electric vehicle is known but the power consumption c j
2
is unknown (set as X ) for power consumption prediction, set
X = ( a1 , a2 , a3 ) , find the maximum value of P = ( c j X ) , 0

-2
according to the Bayes formula, as shown in formula (3): 0 10 20 30 40 50

(
P X c j P (c j ) )
Mileage/km

P (c j X ) = , i = 1, 2,3; j  1, C  (3)

P( X ) Fig. 2. Bus load forecasting result graph

The calculation of P = X c j ( ) is shown in equation (4): TABLE I. FORECAST RESULTS OF POWER CONSUMPTION FOR SOME
BUSES

( ) (
P X c j = P a1 , a2, , a3 c j , j  1, C  ) (4)
distance
traveled
km
actual value
kWh
predictive
value
kWh
absolute
error
kWh
relative
error

Since the three characteristic attributes of electric vehicle 5 1.53 1.55 0.02 1.57%
type a1 , travel mileage a 2 and travel time a3 are
10 3.60 3.62 0.02 0.56%
conditionally independent of each other, the conditional
probability obtained by equation (4) is the product of the 15 4.68 4.66 0.02 0.45%
probabilities corresponding to each individual characteristic
20 5.79 5.69 0.02 1.68%
attribute, such as (5), as shown in the formula:
25 7.68 7.76 0.08 1.03%
( ) ( ) ( )
3
P X c j = P a1 , a2 , a3 c j =  P ai c j , j  1, C  (5) 30 9.00 8.80 0.20 2.22%
i =1

Since P ( X ) is constant for each power consumption, in

35 10.56 10.50 0.06 0.57%

actual applications we only need to calculate the numerator 40 12.06 11.91 0.15 1.24%
part of the formula (3), find the maximum value, and then 45 13.59 13.51 0.08 0.59%
assign X to the maximum value corresponding to the power
consumption ccmp , as shown in equation (6): 50 15.13 15.02 0.11 0.73%

( ( )
P ( ccmp X ) = max P X c j P ( c j ) , j  1, C  ) (6)
Figure 2 is a diagram of the prediction results of the power
consumption of buses. The black dots represent the actual
value of power consumption, the red dots represent the
predicted value of power consumption, and the blue dots

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 2021 NANJING

represent the relative error between the two. Table 1 shows the
Power consumption
forecast data results of some buses. Predictive value
14 MRE of prediction
Power consumption
Predictive value 12
MRA of prediction

Power consumption/kWh
10 10

8
8
Power consumption

6
4

2
4

0
2
-2
0 10 20 30 40 50
0 Mileage/km

0 10 20 30 40 50
Mileage/km Fig. 4. Forecast results of electricity consumption of online taxis

TABLE III. FORECAST RESULTS OF POWER CONSUMPTION FOR SOME

Fig. 3. Forecast results of power consumption for time-sharing vehicles ONLINE TAXIS
distance predictive absolute
TABLE II. FORECAST RESULTS OF POWER CONSUMPTION FOR SOME actual value relative
traveled value error
TIME-SHARING VEHICLES kWh error
km kWh kWh
distance predictive absolute 5 1.46 1.56 0.10 6.87%
actual value relative
traveled value error
kWh error
km kWh kWh 10 2.62 2.60 0.02 0.95%
5 1.01 1.05 0.04 4.21%
15 4.08 4.16 0.08 1.84%
10 2.00 2.10 0.10 4.90%
20 5.20 5.20 0.00 0.00%
15 3.20 3.16 0.04 1.25%
25 6.50 6.25 0.25 3.85%
20 3.80 3.69 0.11 2.89%
30 7.80 7.80 0.00 0.00%
25 5.01 4.91 0.10 2.00%
35 9.10 9.35 0.25 2.75%
30 5.80 5.79 0.01 0.17%
40 10.66 10.91 0.25 2.35%
35 7.00 6.85 0.15 2.14%
45 11.7 11.45 0.25 2.14%
40 7.80 7.89 0.09 1.15%
50 12.87 12.50 0.37 2.91%
45 9.00 8.95 0.05 0.56%
Figure 4 is a graph of the predicted results of the power
50 9.80 9.99 0.19 1.93% consumption of online taxis. The black dots represent the
actual value of power consumption, the red dots represent the
Figure 3 is a graph of the predicted results of the power predicted value of power consumption, and the blue dots
consumption of the time-sharing rental vehicle. The black dots represent the relative error between the two. Table 3 shows the
represent the actual value of power consumption, the red dots forecast data results of some of the power consumption of
represent the predicted value of power consumption, and the online taxis.
blue dots represent the relative error between the two. Table 2
shows the forecast data results of some time-sharing rental From the above three figures and three tables, it can be
vehicles. seen that the absolute error between the predicted value and
the true value of power consumption is basically less than
0.5kWh, the relative error is basically close to 0, and as the
amount of data increases, the absolute error and the relative
error are keeping decreasing, keep getting close to 0.
Literature [6] builds an electric vehicle model through
Cruise software, and uses RUISE software to drag the vehicle
module, motor module, battery module, gearbox module,
wheel module, and driver module into the working area of
Cruise based on the characteristics of electric vehicles, and the
brake control function, drive control function and a constant
unit module are established at the same time. After selecting
each subsystem module, use Connect to establish the
mechanical connection and electrical connection between the
modules according to the configuration plan of the vehicle and

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 2021 NANJING
the connection relationship between the components. By
setting the constant speed working condition in the Constant
Drive module, setting simulation tasks such as acceleration
and deceleration conditions in the Full Load Acceleration
module to calculate the power consumption per kilometer of
electric vehicles under different driving behaviors. Simulate
and calculate the power consumption per kilometer of electric
vehicles at different temperatures, speeds and driving
behaviors, and take into account the discrete and
disaggregated nature of the Agent-Cellular Automata model
to obtain the power consumption per kilometer of the electric
vehicle in the cellular automata model under different
operating conditions. In addition, literature [7] established a
model of electric vehicle power consumption per unit mileage
considering the influence of passenger weight. Literature [8]
uses the relationship between the average speed and the power
consumption of electric vehicles to calculate the power
consumption per unit mileage by predicting the average speed
of the car.
Compared with literature [6], literature [7], and literature
[8], this paper uses Naive Bayesian classification, based on the
historical data of electric vehicles, to calculate the load of
electric vehicles with unknown load. Therefore, it ensures the
reliability of reference data, and there is no need to directly
consider the driving behavior, driving speed, traffic conditions
and temperature of electric vehicles, which greatly reduces the
difficulty of modeling, simplifies the calculation process,
improves the calculation speed, and ensures the calculation
accuracy of the results.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that the Naive
Bayesian classification has simple principles and high
accuracy in calculating the power consumption of electric
vehicles. With the continuous refinement of electric vehicle
modeling and the continuous in-depth research on its travel
habits, charging characteristics, and the efficiency of
individual electric vehicles, this method will have higher
accuracy in the calculation of electric vehicle power
consumption. The load forecasting of electric vehicles and the
dispatching of electric vehicles by the power grid provide
more reliable data support.
V. CONCLUSION
This paper proposes a method for calculating the power
consumption of electric vehicles based on Naive Bayesian
classification, which uses the type of electric vehicle, travel
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distance, and travel duration as characteristic attributes to
calculate the power consumption of electric vehicles. The
research results show that this method has good accuracy,
simple principle and easy operation.
In the future research, we will conduct in-depth research
on the load characteristics and power efficiency of electric
vehicles, and continue to enrich the dimensions of the Naïve
Bayesian classification feature attributes, so as to further
improve the accuracy of the method.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We are very grateful to the relevant units who provided
electric vehicle travel data for this article. Without the relevant
data provided by them, it would be difficult to complete the
research content of this article. At the same time, we are very
grateful to other members of the research group who provided
suggestions and assistance for the research of this article.
Thank you very much.
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