electronics
Article
Model Predictive Control Based Energy Management Strategy
of Series Hybrid Electric Vehicles Considering Driving
Pattern Recognition
Jinna Hao 1 , Shumin Ruan 2, * and Wei Wang 3
Citation: Hao, J.; Ruan, S.; Wang, W.
Model Predictive Control Based
Energy Management Strategy of
Series Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Considering Driving Pattern
Recognition. Electronics 2023, 12, 1418.
https://doi.org/10.3390/
electronics12061418
Academic Editors: Danial Karimi
and Amin Hajizadeh
Received: 1 February 2023
Revised: 11 March 2023
Accepted: 15 March 2023
Published: 16 March 2023
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
Electronics 2023, 12, 1418. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics12061418
1 College of Computer & Information Engineering, Central South University of Forestry and Technology,
Changsha 410004, China
2 School of Mechanical Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
3 School of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 100081, China
* Correspondence: hakima@outlook.com
Abstract: This paper proposes an energy management strategy for a series hybrid electric vehicle
based on driving pattern recognition, driving condition prediction, and model predictive control to
improve the fuel consumption while maintain the state of charge of the battery. To further improve the
computational efficiency, the discretization and linearization of the model is conducted, and the MPC
problem is transferred into a quadratic programming problem, which can be solved by the interior
point method effectively. The simulation is carried out by using Matlab/Simulink platform, and the
simulation results verify the feasibility of the condition prediction method and the performance of
the proposed method. In addition, the predictive control strategy successfully improves the fuel
economy of the hybrid vehicle compared with the rule-based method.
Keywords: pattern recognition; condition prediction; model predictive control; energy management
strategy; hybrid electric vehicles
1. Introduction
With the increasing interest and investment in the field of new energy in the world,
we have reason to believe that a revolution in vehicle technology is coming. Against
this background, many new energy vehicles have mushroomed. At present, the most
common and mature plug-in hybrid vehicles in the civil vehicle market are the Toyota
Prius and hybrid versions of various models. There are also plug-in pure electric vehicles.
Under the policy guidance, the demand for pure electric vehicles is increasing. In
addition, fuel cell vehicles can realize the vision of no fossil energy consumption and
zero emissions, which is also a hot research field for new energy vehicles. However,
the development direction of hybrid electric vehicles is more flexible because of the
characteristics of multiple energy sources. In hybrid electric vehicles, according to the
layout structure and output energy form of power components, they can be divided into
three types: series, parallel, and serial–parallel [1].
1.1. Literature Review
For series structure, the engine and generator are combined in series and connected in
parallel with the battery. The electric power is transferred to the motor through the bus
and then converted into mechanical energy, which is output to the driving wheel. This
connection mode has a relatively low occupancy of space, so the degree of freedom of space
layout is quite large. In addition, since the type of energy output to the motor is electrical
energy, the engine generator set is not mechanically connected with other components,
so the fluctuation of vehicle speed is all regulated by the motor, which can realize the
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/electronics
 electrical energy, the engine generator set is not mechanically connected with other com
ponents, so the fluctuation of vehicle speed is all regulated by the motor, which can realize
the decoupling between the engine and the ground, and is conducive to the efficient work
of the engine [2].
Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 2 of 17
For parallel structure, the engine is connected in parallel with the battery and the
motor. The mechanical power generated by the former and the power generated by the
latter need to be transferred to the coupling mechanism and then distributed to the driving
decoupling between the engine and the ground, and is conducive to the efficient work of
wheel,
the which
engine [2]. leads to the engine not completely decoupled from the ground. When the
vehicle is driving
For parallel in the the
structure, hybrid mode,
engine its working
is connected point with
in parallel is bound to be and
the battery affected
the by the
speed The
motor. change, and it cannot
mechanical always beby
power generated guaranteed
the former to work
and in the generated
the power efficient area.
by theHowever
this connection
latter mode hastoa the
need to be transferred high energymechanism
coupling utilizationand rate, and
then the power
distributed to requirement
the driving of the
wheel,
enginewhich
is not leads
veryto the engine
high. The not completely
energy sourcedecoupled
outputs from the ground.
mechanical When
power and theelectrica
vehicle
power.is driving in the hybrid mode, its working point is bound to be affected by the
speed change, and it cannot always be guaranteed to work in the efficient area. However,
The feature of serial–parallel structure is that it includes both series and paralle
this connection mode has a high energy utilization rate, and the power requirement of the
structures, so it also has the characteristics of both structures, which can more flexibly
engine is not very high. The energy source outputs mechanical power and electrical power.
combine the working
The feature modes of structure
of serial–parallel various energy
is that itsources.
includesThis
bothstructure
series andis parallel
adopted by the
Toyota Prius.
structures, so it also has the characteristics of both structures, which can more flexibly
combineThisthestudy is mainly
working modes aimed at series
of various energyhybrid
sources.electric vehicles,
This structure as shown
is adopted by in
theFigure 1
Additionally,
Toyota Prius. the improvement of vehicle performance by good control strategies i
Thisreflected
mainly study is mainly aimed at series
in the following hybrid electric vehicles, as shown in Figure 1.
aspects:
Additionally, the improvement of vehicle performance by good control strategies is mainly
1. As a complex power component, the performance of the engine in dynamic response
reflected in the following aspects:
is often unsatisfactory. In addition to the characteristics of preheating before stable
1. As a complex power component, the performance of the engine in dynamic response
operation, the battery output can be dominant when the vehicle is started. This is due
is often unsatisfactory. In addition to the characteristics of preheating before stable
to the fastthe
operation, response of the can
battery output battery and thewhen
be dominant characteristics
the vehicle of the motor-low
is started. speed and
This is due
large
to torque.
the fast responseUnder this
of the condition,
battery and thethe vehicle canofstart
characteristics quickly and
the motor-low speed smoothly,
and the
acceleration
large performance
torque. Under is significantly
this condition, the vehicle improved, the power
can start quickly output is the
and smoothly, stable, and
the emission
acceleration reduction is
performance ofsignificantly
the vehicle improved,
is also significantly
the power improved [3]. and
output is stable,
2. the
Theemission
service reduction
life of theofengine
the vehicle
will isbealso significantly improved
correspondingly [3]. because it can avoid
increased
2. The service life of the engine will be
the engine working in the inefficient area. correspondingly increased because it can avoid
the engine working in the inefficient area.
3. During braking and downhill deceleration, the braking energy can be recovered and
3. During braking and downhill deceleration, the braking energy can be recovered and
stored in the battery.
stored in the battery.

Figure1.1.Structure
Figure Structureof of
thethe series
series hybrid
hybrid electric
electric vehicle.
vehicle.

For these reasons, for systems with multiple energy sources, the coordination of power
For these reasons, for systems with multiple energy sources, the coordination o
distribution among energy sources is crucial to fuel economy, driving performance and
power distribution among energy sources is crucial to fuel economy, driving performance
emission reduction. Especially for the series non-plug hybrid electric vehicles, the battery
and emission
capacity reduction.
is generally Especially
small, and foristhe
the energy series
mainly non-plug
provided hybrid
by the electric
engine. vehicles, the
The battery
battery capacity is generally small, and the energy is mainly provided by
plays the role of instantaneous supplement of insufficient power. Controlling the chargingthe engine. The
battery
and plays the
discharging rolebattery
of the of instantaneous supplement
is extremely important of insufficient
to maintain power.
the health of theControlling
battery the
charging
and and utilization
the energy discharging rateofofthe
thebattery is extremely
whole vehicle. important
The challenges to maintain
of the the health o
current energy
management control strategy lie in the following aspects:
 the battery and the energy utilization rate of the whole vehicle. The challenges of the cu
rent energy management control strategy lie in the following aspects:
Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 1. The system description of vehicles is often complex and nonlinear, which has caus
3 of 17

a huge obstacle to simulation modeling and control strategy design. How to descri
the system reasonably, reasonable simplification, and mathematical processing a
1. The system description of vehicles is often complex and nonlinear, which has
essential.
caused a huge obstacle to simulation modeling and control strategy design. How
2. The conditions encountered
to describe the by the vehicle
system reasonably, during
reasonable the driving
simplification, andprocess are changea
mathematical
and the speed are
processing of change
essential.is extremely fast, and the basis of energy management de
2. The conditions encountered
sion-making is difficult to accurately by the vehicle during the driving process are changeable
determine.
and the speed of change is extremely fast, and the basis of energy management
3. The driving styles of drivers are different, and the terrain that vehicles encounter
decision-making is difficult to accurately determine.
every
3. moment
The driving is alsoofchangeable
styles [4,5]. Therefore,
drivers are different, in future
and the terrain research,
that vehicles vehicles shou
encounter
be considered as a part of a larger system, and energy management
at every moment is also changeable [4,5]. Therefore, in future research, vehicles should be al
catedshould
in combination
be consideredwith various
as a part information.
of a larger system, and energy management should be
allocated in combination with various information.
Energy management strategies can be divided into two categories in terms of cont
Energy management strategies can be divided into two categories in terms of control
methods: rule-based control strategies and optimization-based control strategies,
methods: rule-based control strategies and optimization-based control strategies, as shown
shown in Figure
in Figure 2 [2,6–10].
2 [2,6–10].

HEV
Rule-based EMS Optimization-based EMS
EMS

Deterministic Fuzzy rule-based

Offline EMS Online EMS
rule-based EMS EMS

(1)ECMS
(1)Thermostat (1)LP
(1)Conventional (2)MPC
(2)Power Follower (2)DP
(2)Adaptive (3)Neural Network
(3)Modified P.F. (3)GA
(3)Predictive (4)Robust Control
(4)State machine (4)PSO
(5)Fault diagnosis

FigureFigure
2. Classification ofofEMS
2. Classification EMS for HEV.
for HEV.

At present,
At present, thethemost
mostwidely
widely used
usedand andrelatively mature
relatively strategy
mature on hybrid
strategy onelectric
hybrid elect
vehicles is the control strategy based on various rules [1]. Once this kind of control
vehicles is the control strategy based on various rules [1]. Once this kind of control str
strategy rule is formulated, real-time control can be realized through simple judg-
egy rule
ment,isand formulated,
the efficiencyreal-time control
and stability that can beexerted
can be realized are through
very good.simple judgment, a
For instance,
the efficiency
Peng et al.and stability
proposed that can be
a rule-based exerted
energy are very strategy
management good. For for instance, Peng et al. p
a series-parallel
posedplug-in hybrid electric
a rule-based energybus, and a recalibration
management strategy method is employed to improve
for a series-parallel plug-inthe
hybrid el
performance of the rule-based method through the results calculated by the dynamic
tric bus, and a recalibration method is employed to improve the performance of the ru
programming (DP) algorithm [1]. However, its formulation requires high experi-
basedencemethod through
of designers andthe results
requires calculated
a lot by the support,
of experimental dynamicsoprogramming
the design cycle(DP) alg
rithmis[1].
very However, its formulation
long. In addition, in view ofrequires high experience
the complexity of vehicle of designers
driving and require
conditions,
lot of experimental support, so the design cycle is very long. In addition, inthe
it is difficult to fully cover these conditions by artificially set rules. Therefore, view of t
control effect is not very satisfactory, and there is still much room
complexity of vehicle driving conditions, it is difficult to fully cover these conditions for optimization of
such strategies. Now, the control strategy based on optimization-based methods has
artificially set rules. Therefore, the control effect is not very satisfactory, and there is s
been applied more and more, and the optimal solution obtained is very convincing.
muchThe room for optimization
optimization methods of cansuch strategies.into
be categorized Now, theoptimization
offline control strategy based on op
and online
mization-based
optimization. methods has optimization
The offline been applied more and
methods, suchmore,
as DP,andcanthe optimal
obtain solution o
the best
solution theoretically [11,12]. However, its disadvantages are
tained is very convincing. The optimization methods can be categorized into offline op also obvious. When
solving the problem, it is necessary to know the driving conditions of the whole or
mization and online optimization. The offline optimization methods, such as DP, can o
a long time in the future, and the calculation is large and time-consuming. Many
tain the best solution theoretically [11,12]. However, its disadvantages are also obvio
When solving the problem, it is necessary to know the driving conditions of the whole
a long time in the future, and the calculation is large and time-consuming. Many peop
call it the “curse of dimensionality”. Therefore, the DP algorithm is suitable for situatio
Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 4 of 17

people call it the “curse of dimensionality”. Therefore, the DP algorithm is suitable for
situations where the running track is known, fixed, and the traffic conditions are not
particularly complex, such as suburban buses or commuters [11–13]. In addition, due
to its good control effect, it is often used as a comparison to consider the advantages
and disadvantages of other control strategies. To realize the real-time optimization
while ensuring the computational efficiency, the online optimization based methods,
such as equivalent consumption minimization strategy (ECMS) and model predictive
control (MPC), are utilized for the energy management of the HEV [14,15].
The control method to be studied in this paper is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In
the process of energy management, this control not only takes into account the possible
operation state of the vehicle system in the future for a period of time, but also does not
have too much calculation, so it may be applied more in the field of online optimization.
However, in the past decade or so, such methods have only been applied in slow dynamic
processes. Recently, much effort has been applied for the application of the model predictive
control method in the automotive field [16,17]. For instance, Meng et al. proposed a
nonlinear extension of MPC charge control structure for lithium-ion batteries and an
extended Kalman filter is adopted for battery state estimation. Numerical validation with
real experimental data has shown that the e battery’s electrical constraints are respected
well during the whole process [18]. Xiang et al. developed a real time energy management
strategy for a hybrid electric vehicle where a speed predictor is developed with a neural
network structure [19]. Martin presented a model predictive control algorithm for energy
management in aircraft with hybrid electric propulsion system [20]. Moreover, the MPC
based methods has been already applied in the area of the energy management strategy for
the series hybrid electric vehicles, the architecture of which are the same with that of the
vehicle studied in this paper. For instance, Guo et al. proposed a real-time predictive energy
management strategy for a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle for the coordination control of
fuel economy and battery lifetime [21]. Wang et al. presented a MPC-based strategy for
a series hybrid electric tracked bulldozer. The main objective of the MPC algorithm is to
achieve optimal fuel economy by tracking the battery reference value [22].
Model predictive control is often applied to constrained optimization problems. Be-
cause of its characteristics of rolling optimization, the control actions in the future finite
time domain can be optimized at each sampling time, and a good planning can be carried
out [23,24]. However, only the first group of optimal solutions will be applied to the system,
instead of using all the control variables in the time domain. This is because the driving
state of the vehicle at the next sampling time will feed back to the control module, so
as to solve the optimal control quantity at the next time. After all, the control quantity
in the future time domain solved previously is obtained on the basis of the vehicle state
prediction, but there may be a large deviation between the predicted state and the actual
state of the vehicle. Such a mechanism reflects the ability of model predictive control feed-
back correction. This is just suitable for vehicle systems with complex prediction models
and inaccurate description, and it can also have a certain degree of resistance to external
interference. In addition, mastering the current and future driving status of the vehicle
is conducive to improving the predictive control effect of the model. This requires the
prediction of the future driving conditions of vehicles. The prediction methods currently
used include Markov chain model prediction and neural network prediction [25].

1.2. Motivation and Contribution

The above-mentioned methods have shown excellent performance improvement on
the energy management strategy of hybrid electric vehicles. However, for the future speed
prediction, they predict the future speed of the vehicle only based on the past and current
speed information with the utilization of different methods, such as Markov chain model or
neural networks, and the impact of different driving status on vehicle was not considered.
The speed varies significantly when the vehicle drives in an urban area, and the speed is
almost constant on the highway.
 Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 5 of 17
Electronics 2023, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 1

To cover the gap, in this paper, a MPC-based energy management strategy with driv-
Bypattern
ing select recognition
a large number of cycle
mechanism conditions,
is proposed. The the paper
control extracts
process different
is shown characteristi
in Figure 3.
By select a large
parameters andnumber
recognizesof cycle conditions,
driving patternthebypaper
usingextracts differentmethod
the clustering characteristic
and Euclidia
parameters
distance toand recognizes
predict driving
the future patterncondition
driving by using the clustering
based method
on Markov andmodel.
chain Euclid- By com
ian distance to predict the future driving condition based on Markov chain
bining MPC with multi-objective optimization function and converting it to quadratic model. By pro
combining MPC with multi-objective optimization function and converting it to quadratic
gramming, the optimal control variables are solved by the interior point method, so as t
programming, the optimal control variables are solved by the interior point method, so as
torealize
realizethe
the control
control ofofengine
engine operating
operating points.
points. Finally,
Finally, the simulation
the simulation results
results of controlof contro
strategyproves
strategy provesthethe effectiveness
effectiveness ofstrategy.
of the the strategy.

Start

Driving pattern
recognition

Driving condition
Demanding Describe MPC
prediction elements problem
in a short horizon

Quadratic
Build object
programming
function
solved by IPM

Control variables

System

End

Figure3.3.Control
Figure Control process
process of method.
of the the method.

2. Driving Pattern Recognition and Speed Prediction

2. Driving Pattern Recognition and Speed Prediction
The condition recognition process is shown in Figure 4. Since the HEV will operate
The condition recognition process is shown in Figure 4. Since the HEV will operat
in various scenarios, the sample data used to identify the vehicle conditions must contain
incomprehensive
as various scenarios, theconditions
driving sample data used to to
as possible identify
ensurethethatvehicle conditionsofmust
the effectiveness the contai
as comprehensive
identification results isdriving
closer toconditions as possible
the actual situation. Thistostudy
ensure that up
selected thetoeffectiveness
17 driving of th
cycle conditions,results
identification such as is FTP,
closer to the actual
UDDSHDV, andsituation.
WVUINTER, Thistostudy
cover selected up to 17 drivin
various working
conditions, such as cities, highways, and mountains.
cycle conditions, such as FTP, UDDSHDV, and WVUINTER, to cover various workin
conditions, such as cities, highways, and mountains.
It is crucial to consider if the choice of feature parameters is representative since dis
tinctive parameters of the working circumstances reflect cycling characteristics. The opt
mal range of numbers for pattern recognition is 3 to 13, with the accuracy increasing firs
and then decreasing as the number of distinctive factors grows. [6].
Electronics
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Start

Selection of condition data

Divide into condition Analysis and selection of

blocks characteristic parameters

Extract characteristic parameters Current conditions

Extract characteristic
Classification of blocks parameters

Determine which type of condition

is closer to current condition

Recognize

Finish

Figure4. 4.
Figure Flow
Flow chart
chart of condition
of condition recognition.
recognition.

ItDue
is crucial
to thetopossibility
consider ifofthe choice of
repeated feature parameters
representation of the issame
representative since featur
feature between
distinctive
parameters, after calculating the correlations of parameters of each conditionThe
parameters of the working circumstances reflect cycling characteristics. block, thre
optimal range of numbers for pattern recognition is 3 to 13, with the accuracy
characteristic parameters, average speed, average acceleration, and parking time propor increasing
first and then decreasing as the number of distinctive factors grows [6].
tion, are selected, which eventually can fully describe the speed of the vehicle, the smooth
Due to the possibility of repeated representation of the same feature between fea-
nessparameters,
ture of the working conditions,the
after calculating and the smoothness
correlations of the of
of parameters road.
each condition block,
To determine the driving characteristics more clearly,
three characteristic parameters, average speed, average acceleration, it is necessary
and parking totime
classify con
dition blocks
proportion, for patterns.
are selected, which eventually can fully describe the speed of the vehicle, the
Basedofon
smoothness thethe maximum
working likelihood
conditions, and theestimation
smoothnessand Jensen
of the road. inequality, the EM algo
To determine the driving characteristics more clearly, it
rithm is divided into two steps: E-step, expectation; M-step, maximum;is necessary to classify
andcondi-
E-step and M
tion
stepblocks for patterns.
are iterated until the algorithm converges to the local optimal solution.
Based
Here,onall
theblocks
maximumare likelihood estimation
divided into and Jensenusing
five categories inequality,
the EMthe EM algorithm
clustering algorithm
is divided into two steps: E-step, expectation; M-step, maximum; and E-step and M-step
The classification results and five cluster centers are shown in Figure 5
are iterated until the algorithm converges to the local optimal solution.
Here, all blocks are divided into five categories using the EM clustering algorithm.
The classification results and five cluster centers are shown in Figure 5
Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 7 of 17
Electronics 2023, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 17

Figure5.5. Classification
Figure Classification results
resultsof
ofthe
theEM
EMalgorithm.
algorithm.

In order
In order toto select
selectthe
thedriving
drivingpattern of the
pattern vehicle,
of the historical
vehicle, vehiclevehicle
historical speeds speeds
are rec- are
orded for a period of time, its characteristic parameters are calculated, and
recorded for a period of time, its characteristic parameters are calculated, and the Eu-the Euclidean
distancedistance
clidean is used toisselect
used the clustering
to select the center that is
clustering closestthat
center to the operating
is closest conditions.
to the operating
To illustrate the advantage, a K-means algorithm-based pattern recognition
conditions. To illustrate the advantage, a K-means algorithm-based pattern recognition method is de-
veloped, where the number of type is also selected as 5, as shown in Figure
method is developed, where the number of type is also selected as 5, as shown in Figure 6.6. Addition-
ally, the Davies-Bouldin
Additionally, Index (DB)Index
the Davies-Bouldin is utilized
(DB) isto utilized
evaluate totheevaluate
performance of different of
the performance
methods [26].
different methods [26].
k C +C
k
DB =11k ∑ max( C i i+ Cj j )
DB = å i =1max(
j 6 =i || w i − w j ||2 )
k i =1 j ¹i || wi - w j ||2 (1)
1 (1)
| ∑
C = |1Ω || x n − w ||
C = xån ∈ Ω|| x - w ||
| W | x ÎW n
n
where k = 5, C is the average distance within one type, Ω is a collection of all elements
where
of a type, xn ,isCthe
k =5 is the average distance characteristic
three-dimensional within one type, W is a collection
parameter of all and
of this type, elements
w is the
of a type, xn is the three-dimensional characteristic parameter of this type, and w is the the
three-dimensional coordinate of the center of the type. Smaller DB means the smaller
intra-class distancecoordinate
three-dimensional and the largerof the the
centerinter-class
of the type. distance,
Smallerthat
DB is, the more
means obvious
the smaller the the
classification feature.
intra-class distance andSubstitute
the largerthe thecharacteristic
inter-class distance, parameters of the
that is, eachmore
working
obviouscondition
the
into the formula,
classification and Substitute
feature. the DBs ofthe K-means and EM
characteristic are 0.6228ofand
parameters each0.3309, respectively.
working condition
The DB of EM is smaller, which indicates that the
into the formula, and the DBs of K-means and EM are 0.6228 and 0.3309, respectively. difference between the clusters
of thisThe
algorithm is greater, and the similarity between the
DB of EM is smaller, which indicates that the difference between the clusters elements within the cluster
of is
greater.
this algorithm is greater, and the similarity between the elements within the cluster is in
It can be concluded that EM algorithm is more suitable for the research object
this paper
greater. It than
can bethe K-meansthat
concluded algorithm.
EM algorithm is more suitable for the research object in
this For
papereachthanclassification, the principle of Markov chain model is utilized to predict
the K-means algorithm.
the future speed of the HEV. To predict the future speed of the vehicle, it is necessary to
calculate the transition probability between states, that is, the state transition probability
matrix. The specific calculation process is as shown in (2) [27]. Results obtained are shown
in Figure 7. 

Tij = Pr N ak+n+1 = a j N (Vk = Vi ) (2)
 Electronics2023,
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12, 1418
x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 17 8 of

Figure
Figure 6. 6. Classification
Classification results
results of theofK-means
the K-means algorithm.
algorithm.

Among
For eachthem, n is the futurethe
classification, timeprinciple
to be predicted,
of Markov N (Vk chain
= Vi ) ismodel
the number of vehicles
is utilized to predict th
whose speed is V i at the current moment, N ( a k + n + 1 = a j ) is the number
future speed of the HEV. To predict the future speed of the vehicle, it is necessary to ca of acceleration
equals a j at
culatetothe the next moment,
transition Tij isbetween
probability the probability
states,that thatthe is,future acceleration
the state transition a j , and
is probability m
the current vehicle speed is Vi .
trix. The specific calculation process is as shown in (2) [27]. Results obtained are shown
According to the Markov chain model above, the next-time acceleration weighted
Figure 7.
value corresponding to each vehicle speed is calculated, the vehicle acceleration at the next
moment can be predicted at the current time, and the next-time vehicle speed is obtained.
Tij = Pr éë N (ak +n +1 = a j ) | N (Vk = Vi ) ùû (
This method is used for the WLTC driving cycle, and the predicted horizon is set to 5 s. The
result is shown in Figure 8.
ToAmong them, n is
further illustrate thethe future time
superiority to proposed
of the be predicted, method, N (V k =
the Vi ) is theresults
comparison number of v
about thewhose
hicles predictionspeed error andat
is V thetheroot-mean-square-error
current moment, N(RMSE) (a are
=shown
a ) isinthe
Tables
number 1–3. of acce
i k + n +1 j

eration
Table 1. Prediction to awith
equals error j atpattern
the next moment,
recognition. Tij is the probability that the future acceler
tion is a j Error
Time , and the current 2nd is Vi . 3rd
1st vehicle speed 4th 5th
Max error (km/h) 0.3572 0.5236 0.7692 1.0751 1.7846
Ave error (km/h) 0.2918 0.3982 0.6732 0.8736 1.2358

Table 2. Prediction error without pattern recognition.

Time Error 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

Max error (km/h) 0.6723 0.9762 1.3674 2.3268 3.1469
Ave error (km/h) 0.4174 0.7214 0.9826 1.6746 2.3478
root-mean-square-error (RMSE).

Table 3. Values of RMSE.

Condition Predict Method RMSE

Prediction error with recognition 1.1834
Prediction error without recognition 2.0762

(a) (b)
 ij ë k + n +1 j k i û

Among them, n is the future time to be predicted, N (Vk = Vi ) is the number of ve-
hicles whose speed is Vi at the current moment, N (ak +n +1 = a j ) is the number of accel-

Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 eration equals to a j at the next moment, Tij is the probability that the future accelera-
9 of 17

tion is a j , and the current vehicle speed is Vi .

Electronics 2023, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 17

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

(e)
Figure 7. State transition probability of next 5 s (a–e).
Figure 7. State transition probability of next 5 s (a–e).

According to the Markov chain model above, the next-time acceleration weighted
value corresponding to each vehicle speed is calculated, the vehicle acceleration at the next
moment can be predicted at the current time, and the next-time vehicle speed is obtained.
This method is used for the WLTC driving cycle, and the predicted horizon is set to 5 s.
The result is shown in Figure 8.
To further illustrate the superiority of the proposed method, the comparison results
about the prediction error and the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) are shown in Tables 1–
3.
 Table 3. Values of RMSE.

Condition Predict Method RMSE

Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 10 of 17
Prediction error with recognition 1.1834
Prediction error without recognition 2.0762

Figure8.8.Prediction
Figure Predictionresults.
results.

Theabove
The aboveresults
resultsdemonstrate
demonstrate that
that thethe proposed
proposed method,
method, including
including the the driving
driving pat-
pattern
tern recognition and Markov chain model, can significantly improve the prediction
recognition and Markov chain model, can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. accu-
racy.
3. MPC-Based Energy Management Strategy
3. MPC‐Based
This sectionEnergy Management
uses the Strategycontrol method to solve the optimization
model predictive
problem with constraints. First, the predicted
This section uses the model predictive control vehicle speed
method is converted
to solve into demand
the optimization prob-
power,
lem with constraints. First, the predicted vehicle speed is converted into demand for
and then mathematical models and optimization problems are established the
power,
research object. Finally, the interior point method is used to solve the problem.
and then mathematical models and optimization problems are established for the research
object. Finally, the interior point method is used to solve the problem.
3.1. Demanded Power Calculation
The demanding
3.1. Demanded power of the vehicle can be calculated based on the longitudinal
Power Calculation
dynamics [28].
The demanding power of the 1 vehicle can
dv be calculated C based
A on the longitudinal dy-
namics [28]. Pdmd = (δmV + mg f V + D V 3 ) (3)
3600ηm dt 21.15
where V is the speed of the 1 ηm dV C D Ais the
Pdmdvehicle
= (km/h),
(dmV is the
+ mgfV + m
efficiency, V 3 ) mass of the vehicle,
(3)
f is the resistance coefficient, δ3600 hm vehicledtrotational mass
is the 21.15coefficient, CD is the air
resistance coefficient, and A is the windward area (m2 ).
where V is the speed of the vehicle (km/h), hm is the efficiency, m is the mass of the
3.2. System Model
vehicle, f is the resistance coefficient, d is the vehicle rotational mass coefficient, C D
The state–space equation for the energy management strategy of the system can be
is the airbased
resistance coefficient, andAKirchhoff’s
and is the windward
voltagearea
law(m
2).
obtained on power balance as follows [19]:

3.2. System Model q

2 − 4R ( P − Tg ne ηg )
. V oc − Voc ηb m 9549
The state–space equation
x=− for the energy management strategy of the system can(4)
be
2RCb
obtained based on power balance and Kirchhoff’s voltage law as follows [19]:
.
x = f ( x, u, v)

Tg
 (5)
x = [soc], u = , v = [ Pdmd ]
ne
where Pm is motor power (kW), Cb represents the capacity of the battery (aH), Voc is the
open circuit voltage of the battery (V), R is battery interior resistance (Ω), ηb is the efficiency
of the battery, Tg is the torque of the generator (Nm), ne is the rotational speed of the
engine-generator set (rpm), and ηg is the efficiency of the generator.
Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 11 of 17

3.3. Linearizing Predictive Model

The system model of vehicles is highly nonlinear, and dealing with this type of problem
is more complicated. Therefore, in practical applications, a simpler and more effective
linear model is often used, as follows.
.
x = Ax
e + Bu
e + Cv
e +D
e (6)

Among them,
∂f
e=
A ∂x x = x0 ,u=u0 ,v=v0 ,
∂f
e=
B ∂u x = x0 ,u=u0 ,v=v0 ,
∂f
e=
C ∂v x = x0 ,u=u0 ,v=v0 ,
e = f ( x0 , u0 , v0 ) − Ax
D e 0 − Bu
e 0 − Cv
e 0

Additionally, the terminal state can be expressed as

x (k + T ) = Ax (k) + ϕu(k k) + φv(k k ) + ψD (k k) (7)

Among them,

u(k|k) = [u(k); u(k + 1); . . . ; u(k + T − 1)]

A=1
v(k|k) = [v(k), v(k + 1), . . . , v(k + T − 1)] T
e A T −2 B
ϕ = [ A T −1 B e . . . A0 B
e]
φ = [ A T −1 C
e A T −2 C
e . . . A0 C
e]
ψ = [ A T −1 A T −2 A T −3 . . . A 0 ]
D (k k) = [ D
eD e ]T
e ... D

T is the prediction horizon.

3.4. Optimization Process

The primary objective of this study is to satisfy the need for power, which is mostly
supplied by the engine generator set. Additionally, SOC maintenance has a significant
impact on battery life for hybrid electric vehicles that are not plugged in. Thus, the cost
function that was constructed is as follows:
Tg ne ηg
J = || 9549 − v(k|k)||2R + Q ∗ sign([ x (k + T ) − xopt ])[ x (k + T ) − xopt ]
s.t. x (k + T ) = A T x (k) + ϕu(k|k ) + φv(k|k )
(8)
xmin ≤ x ≤ xmax
umin ≤ u ≤ umax

T n η
g e g
|| 9549 − v(k|k)||2R penalize the difference between the power provided of the EGS
and the demanded power, R and Q are the weighting coefficients, and
Q ∗ sign([ x (k + T ) − xopt ])[ x (k + T ) − xopt ] is the terminal punishment of the SOC where
xopt is set to 0.65.
Convert (8) to a quadratic programming form:

J = u (k|k) T Hu(k k) + c T u(k k ) + d

(9)
s.t. Ωu ≥ ω
Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 12 of 17

where
H = diag( R)
2n0 ηg T
c=− 9549 [ R1 v ( k ) R2 v(k + 1) . . . R T v(k + T − 1)] T + QB
T
d = v (k|k) ∗ diag( R) ∗ v(k k) + Q ∗ e
T
e = A T x (k) + φv T (k k) + ψD (k k ) + −socopt

Ω = [ I5×5 , − I5×5 ], ω = [umin umax ] T

3.5. Interior Point Method

To balance the optimization effect and real-time algorithm as much as possible, an
interior point method is employed when solving the above QP problem, and the result can
be obtained by solving the KKT condition iteratively, as shown below [29]:

H 0 − ΩT ∆u
    
−r d
 Ω − I 0  ∆s  =  −r p  (10)
0 Λ S ∆λ −SΛe

where rd = Ωu − ΩT λ + c, r p = Ωu − s − ω, S = diag(s1, s2, . . . , smc ), Λ = diag(λ1, λ2, . . . , λmc ),

T
e = (1, 1, . . . , 1)T , Dual gap is δ = smλc , s is a slack variable, λ is a Lagrange multiplier, and mc
is the number of inequality constraints. Additionally, the control variables can be obtained by
solving the above equation iteratively.

3.6. Simulation Results

The simulation was conducted under the specified cycle circumstances to assess the
efficacy of the control method. The parameter of the vehicle is shown in Table 4. The
aforementioned rule-based method and a model predictive control method without pattern
recognition are employed for comparison. The WVUCITY driving cycle is utilized for
analysis, as shown in Figure 9. The simulation results are shown in Figures 10–13, in which
the abbreviation PR means pattern recognition.

Table 4. The primary parameters of the HEV.

Parameter Value Unit

Vehicle mass m 8000 kg
Radius of wheels rw 0.38 m
Windward area A 3.24 m2
Air resistance coefficient CD 0.38 -
rolling resistance coefficient f 0.015 -
Capacity of battery pack Cmax 20 Ah
Voltage of battery pack Voc 360 V
Rated power of the engine 120 kW
Rated power of the generator 120 kW
Rated power of the motor 160 kW

From Figure 10, it can be seen that all the three methods can regulate the SOC of the
battery near the optimal state, which is 0.65 for the battery in this paper. However, the
maximum deviation of the SOC with the rule-based strategy is more pronounced than
those with the model predictive control-based strategies. Specifically, the MPC strategy
with pattern recognition outperforms the MPC-based strategy without pattern recognition
in terms of the SOC regulation, which illustrates the effectiveness of the driving pattern
recognition mechanism.
 Capacity of battery pack Cmax 20
Capacity
Voltageofofbattery
batterypack
packCmax
Voc 20360 A
Voltage of battery pack V
Rated power of the engine oc 360120 V
Rated power of
Rated power of the
the engine
generator 120120 kW
Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 Rated power of the generator 120 13 of 17 kW
Rated power of the motor 160
Rated power of the motor 160 kW

Figure
Figure
Figure9. 9.
9.The
The speed
speed
The profile
profile
speed of the of
profile ofthe
thevehicle.
vehicle. vehicle.

Figure 10. The SOC profile.

Figure
Figure 10.10.
TheThe
SOCSOC profile.
profile.
Electronics 2023,12,
Electronics2023, 12,1418
x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of
14 of 17
17
Electronics 2023, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 17

Figure 11.
11. The power
power of the
the engine–generator set.
set.
Figure 11.The
Figure The powerof
of theengine–generator
engine–generator set.

Figure 12. The fuel consumption profile.

Figure12.
Figure 12.The
Thefuel
fuelconsumption
consumptionprofile.
profile.
Electronics
Electronics2023,
2023,12,
12, x1418
FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 17 15 of 1

Figure13.13.
Figure TheThe computation
computation timetime
and and theconsumption
the fuel fuel consumption with different
with different prediction
prediction horizon. horizon.

The
Frompower of the
Figure 10,engine–generator
it can be seen thatsetall
is shown in Figure
the three methods 11. can
It can be seen
regulate thethat,
SOC of th
under some conditions with rapid acceleration, the rule-based strategy demands more
battery near the optimal state, which is 0.65 for the battery in this paper. However, th
power that the other two strategies. The fuel consumption results are depicted in Figure 12.
maximum deviation of the SOC with the rule-based strategy is more pronounced tha
The final fuel volumes for the whole cycle of the rule-based strategy, MPC-based strategy
withoutwith
those patterntherecognition,
model predictive control-based
and MPC-based strategies.
strategy with Specifically,
pattern recognition arethe
0.49,MPC
0.47, strateg
with
and pattern
0.45 recognition
L. It can be concluded outperforms the with
that, compared MPC-based strategy
the rule-based without
strategy, pattern recogn
MPC-based
tion in terms of the SOC regulation, which illustrates the effectiveness
strategy performs well in terms of the SOC maintenance and fuel efficiency improvement. of the driving pa
tern recognition
Additionally, mechanism.
the driving pattern recognition mechanism can help the control algorithm for
better The
performance.
power of the engine–generator set is shown in Figure 11. It can be seen tha
To evaluate
under the computational
some conditions with rapid burden under different
acceleration, prediction
the rule-based horizondemands
strategy of the mor
MPC, numerous simulations are conducted, and the results are illustrated in Figure 13.
power that the other two strategies. The fuel consumption results are depicted in Figur
For the driving cycle with 1400 s, the computational time is acceptable and to balance
12. The final fuel volumes for the whole cycle of the rule-based strategy, MPC-based stra
the computational burden and the fuel efficiency, and the prediction horizon is set to 5
inegy
thiswithout
paper. pattern recognition, and MPC-based strategy with pattern recognition ar
0.49, 0.47, and 0.45 L. It can be concluded that, compared with the rule-based strategy
4.MPC-based
Conclusionsstrategy performs well in terms of the SOC maintenance and fuel efficienc
improvement.
In this study,Additionally, the driving
the driving pattern patternusing
is recognized recognition mechanism
the expectation can help the con
maximization
algorithm, and the future demanded
trol algorithm for better performance. power of the HEV was then forecast using a Markov
chain model. It was discovered that pattern recognition significantly
To evaluate the computational burden under different prediction horizon of th improves prediction
outcomes, and by comparison,
MPC, numerous simulationspattern recognition reduces
are conducted, and thetheresults
predictive
areerror significantly.
illustrated in Figure 13
Using the predicted speed, the model predictive control-based energy management strategy
For the driving cycle with 1400 s, the computational time is acceptable and to balance th
is developed in which maintaining the state of charge of the battery while reducing the
computational
energy consumption burden and
of the the fuel
engine efficiency,
is set and the
to the objective ofprediction horizon
the algorithm. The is
MPCset is
to 5 in thi
paper.
transferred into a quadratic programming solved with the interior point method.
Simulations are carried out, and the results illustrate that, compared with the rule-
4. Conclusions
based EMS and the MPC-based EMS without pattern recognition, the MPC-based EMS
with pattern
In thisrecognition
study, theperforms
drivingbetter
pattern in terms of reducing
is recognized fuel consumption,
using the expectationas well as
maximizatio
the fluctuation of the SOC.
algorithm, and the future demanded power of the HEV was then forecast using a Marko
Since the model used in this paper ignores the time-variance of system parameters
chain model. It was discovered that pattern recognition significantly improves predictio
due to continuous operation of the vehicle, improving the accuracy of the model used in
outcomes,
this andimproving
paper, while by comparison, pattern recognition
the computational reduces
efficiency, are the predictive
left to future work. error signifi
cantly. Using the predicted speed, the model predictive control-based energy manage
ment strategy is developed in which maintaining the state of charge of the battery whil
reducing the energy consumption of the engine is set to the objective of the algorithm. Th
MPC is transferred into a quadratic programming solved with the interior point method
Simulations are carried out, and the results illustrate that, compared with the rule
Electronics 2023, 12, 1418 16 of 17

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Writing—Original draft prepara-

tion, J.H.; Formal analysis, Investigation, Data Curation, Writing—Review & Editing, S.R.; Formal
analysis, W.W. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Data Availability Statement: Data available on request due to restrictions, e.g. privacy or ethical.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Nomenclature

HEV hybrid electric vehicle

EMS energy management strategy
EM expectation maximization
SOC state of charge
MPC model predictive control
ECMS equivalent consumption minimization strategy
DP dynamic programming
PR pattern recognition
EGS engine generator set
DB Davies-Bouldin index

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