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THE REBUILD II
ANALYSIS OF THE 2023 CHICAGO CUBS

A L E K T I M M
REBUILD YEAR ONE
74-88
3RD PLACE IN NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL, 19 GB

TALE OF TWO HALVES

FIRST HALF SECOND HALF
35-57 (.380) 39-31 (.557)
27th Winning Percentage 9th Winning Percentage
24th Run Differential 13th Run Differential
25th Team ERA 5th Team ERA
24th Team SLG 19th Team SLG

Injured: Suzuki (31 G), Bote (54 G), Injured: Hendricks (12 S), Contreras (25 G)
Madrigal (52 G), Stroman (4 S) Traded: Robertson, Effross, Givens
STATE OF THE ORGANIZATION
YEAR 2 OF 4-YEAR REBUILD
The combination of prospect arrivals, committed
contracts, and availability of free agency dollars projects
the Cubs to fully commit to competing in 2025.
YOUTH MOVEMENT
The MLB roster ranks as the 7th youngest. Christopher
Morel, Nico Hoerner, Keegan Thompson, and Justin
Steele impressed in their first full season in the MLB.
NEW CORE
The departure of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez,
and Willson Contreras from 2016 core leaves large shoes
to fill. It is crucial to focus on developing young talent.
STRONG FARM
The 10th ranked farm system has jumped 12 spots in the
past year. Top-50 prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong, Brennen
Davis, and Kevin Alcantara project to arrive by 2024.
THREE-YEAR PAYROLL FIGURES

2023 2024 2025 $148,000,000
Guaranteed 5 Players 2 Players 1 Player
2022 Total Payroll
Contracts $77,250,000 $29,010,000 $20,000,000

Arbitration
Projected Costs
5 Players
$53,125,000
8 Players
$36,400,000
16 Players
$64,600,000 $720,000
Rescinded Salary $23,000,000 --- ---
2023 League Minimum

40-Man Roster
Spots
3 5 9
$33,100,000
Projected Total
Payroll
$114,900,000 $65,400,000 $84,600,000 Available to Spend
2023 POSITION PLAYERS
PLAYER

Yan Gomes
POS

C
BATS

R
SALARY

$6,000,000

--- 1B --- ---

Nico Hoerner^ 2B R $2,832,000

Patrick Wisdom*** 3B R $760,000

--- SS --- ---

Ian Happ^^^ LF S $10,800,000

--- CF --- ---

Seiya Suzuki RF R $18,000,000

* Pre-Arbitration 1 | ** Pre-Arbitration 2 | *** Pre-Arbitration 3

^ Arbitration 1 | ^^ Arbitration 2 | ^^^ Arbitration 3
2023 PLAYER
BENCH
SPOTS
POS BATS SALARY

Zach McKinstry** UTIL L $720,000

Christopher Morel* UTIL R $720,000

PJ Higgins C/1B R $720,000

Nick Madrigal^ INF R $880,000

Miles Mastrobuoni INF L $720,000

* Pre-Arbitration 1 | ** Pre-Arbitration 2 | *** Pre-Arbitration 3

^ Arbitration 1 | ^^ Arbitration 2 | ^^^ Arbitration 3
2023 PLAYER
STARTING
ROTATION
ROLE THR SALARY

Marcus Stroman SP1 R $25,000,000

Kyle Hendricks SP2 R $14,000,000

Justin Steele** SP3 L $750,000

Hayden Wesneski* SP4 R $730,000

Adrian Sampson SP5 R $1,010,000

* Pre-Arbitration 1 | ** Pre-Arbitration 2 | *** Pre-Arbitration 3

^ Arbitration 1 | ^^ Arbitration 2 | ^^^ Arbitration 3
2023 PLAYER
BULLPEN
Brandon Hughes*
ROLE

CL
THR

L
SALARY

$730,000

Rowan Wick^ SU8 R $1,550,000

Mark Leiter Jr.*** SU7 R $730,000

Adbert Alzolay*** MID R $750,000

Michael Rucker** MID R $728,000

Manuel Rodriguez** MID R $725,000

Keegan Thompson** LR R $740,000

--- --- --- ---

* Pre-Arbitration 1 | ** Pre-Arbitration 2 | *** Pre-Arbitration 3

^ Arbitration 1 | ^^ Arbitration 2 | ^^^ Arbitration 3
TARGETED AREAS
FOR IMPROVEMENT

CF MIF 1B LHR
WAR: 28TH WAR: 28TH WAR: 23RD WAR: 23RD

2023 ROSTER PROJECTIONS

WIN PCT. RUNS RUNS ALL. WAR wOBA wRC+ FIP

.457 625 683 30.4 0.316 103.9 4.265

22nd 24th 19th 21st 24th 23rd 17th

 THE
STRATEGY
SEEK VALUE .500
Target players with a low salary in relation to production

STAY YOUNG 660 RS

Maintain youth movement with players under 33

THINK FUTURE
Pursue contracts with 3+ years of club control
660 RA GOALS
 CENTER FIELD
OPENING PROJ. CLUB PROJ. PROJ. PROJ.
PLAYER STATUS BATS $ PER WAR
DAY AGE SALARY CTRL WAR wOBA wRC+

Brennen Davis AAA R 23 $720,000 6 0.5 .303 95 $1,440,000

Cody Bellinger FA L 27 $17,500,000 – 2.5 .306 97 $7,000,000

Kevin Kiermaier FA L 32 $6,624,000 – 1.2 .287 85 $5,520,000

Bryan Reynolds PIT S 28 $6,750,000 3 3.9 .349 125 $1,730,769

BRYAN REYNOLDS
Team-friendly contract
Significantly best offensively
Proven over younger options
 MIDDLE INFIELD
OPENING PROJ. CLUB PROJ. PROJ. PROJ.
PLAYER STATUS BATS $ PER WAR
DAY AGE SALARY CTRL WAR wOBA wRC+

Nick Madrigal 2B
CHC S 25 $2,832,000 3 2.1 .325 110 $1,348,571
Nico Hoerner SS

Xander Bogaerts FA R 30 $29,555,000 — 4.5 .341 122 $6,567,778

Dansby Swanson FA R 29 $24,801,000 — 3.4 .315 104 $7,294,412

Carlos Correa FA R 28 $31,752,000 — 5.0 .354 131 $6,350,400

XANDER BOGAERTS
Second best WAR among SS
Upgrade over Madrigal, Swanson
Cheaper than Carlos Correa
 FIRST BASE
OPENING PROJ. CLUB PROJ. PROJ. PROJ.
PLAYER STATUS BATS $ PER WAR
DAY AGE SALARY CTRL WAR wOBA wRC+

Matt Mervis AAA L 24 $720,000 6 1.6 .343 123 $450,000

Josh Bell FA S 30 $13,831,000 — 2.1 .343 123 $6,586,190

Brandon Belt FA L 34 $16,090,000 — 0.9 .323 109 $17,877,778

Rhys Hoskins PHI R 30 $12,845,000 1 2.5 .341 119 $5,138,000

MATT MERVIS
Low salary with maximum club control
Projects above average offensively
Platoons well with Wisdom (hits LHP)
 LEFT-HANDED RELIEVER
OPENING CLUB PROJ. PROJ.
PLAYER STATUS BATS PROJ. SALARY $ PER WAR
DAY AGE CTRL WAR FIP

Codi Heuer CHC R 26 $720,000 3 0.1 4.17 $7,200,000

Erich Uelman AAA R 26 $720,000 6 -0.1 4.61 -$7,200,000

Sean Newcomb WAIVER L 29 $750,000 3 0.7 4.42 $1,142,857

Justin Wilson FA L 35 $2,008,000 — 0.3 4.05 $6,693,333

SEAN NEWCOMB
Left-handed
Best value for projected stats
Significantly younger than Wilson
ATTACK PLAN
ACTION PLAYER POSITION PAYROLL HIT

Sign Xander Bogaerts SS -$22,555,000

David Bote INF

Trade Alexander Canario OF +$4,010,000
DJ Herz SP

Acquire Bryan Reynolds OF -$6,750,000

$147,045,000
Already on
Promote Adrian Sampson SP
Payroll

Sign Sean Newcomb RP -$750,000

2023 TOTAL PAYROLL

$33,045,000 $55,000
2023 PROJECTED PAYROLL HIT
UNDER BUDGET
 80 15th 17th

WINS PITCHING STAFF OFFENSE

  WIN EXPECTANCY RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED WAR wOBA wRC+ FIP

BEFORE .457 625 683 30.4 0.316 103.92 4.265

AFTER .491 663 675 33.5 0.322 108.15 4.228

 15th 7th 10th

BEST RECORD IN MLB BEST RECORD IN NL PAYROLL IN NL

WAR RANKS
  SP RP C 1B MIF 3B LF CF RF

BEFORE 11 23 7 23 14 21 2 28 18

AFTER 10 20 19 10 3 19 4 9 15
2023 ANALYSIS
STRATEGY
CUBS PROJECTIONS
Sportrac (Salaries), Baseball Savant (StatCast Data), 3-Year
Averages, FanGraphs Depth Charts

Used 3-Year Averages and StatCast data to project player

statistics and aggregated into team totals.

LEAGUE PROJECTIONS
Sportrac (Salaries), Steamer (Stats), FanGraphs Depth Charts

These three projection systems were used to gauge where the

2023 Chicago Cubs will project in relation to other MLB teams.
PHASE II
T H E R E B U I L D P A R T I I