Ethereum, The Triple Halving @SquishChaos

PT $30-50k base case, $150k by Jan2023 in illiquid & speculative peak: Prior valuation models based
on inferior comparables (BTC Stock to flow, Payment networks, Metcalfe’s law, DCF model on YTD fees)
result in a 30-50k base case. In a flows-based market w/ triple halving catalyst, 150k is achievable.

What drives 150k? Increased illiquidity, increased demand, catalyst, narrative adoption

Illiquidity Drivers: Stake+DeFi locked up now at 12% market cap, incentives will bring to 30%. Fee burn
removes most liquid supply first. Negative stock to flow means no release valve through issuance. Yields
cause ETH HODLing to go viral more than BTC HODLing ever could.Yield starts at 25+%, yield is USD
price insensitive, attracts more staking & more illiquidity.

Demand Drivers: New onramps for Retail & Institutional flows: Robinhood, Paypal, Venmo, Futures.
Funds already did the work to get access to Bitcoin, so access to Ethereum will be faster. US ETF timing
is wildcard. Massive relative to Canada ETF’s so expect >1B in capital inflows. At $1T+ market cap, CTA
flows, Risk Parity. ETF unlocks ESG, other discretionary.

Catalyst: Triple Halving event is a known catalyst. EIP1559 expected July 14th 2021. Proof of Stake(PoS)
expected in Oct/Nov2021. This is a 90% reduction in issuance equivalent to 3 consecutive Bitcoin halving
events. The events are staggered by 4 months, giving investors time to look into and adopt narrative.

Narrative Adoption: price leads narrative. Rise in price & ETH/BTC ratio leads to narrative adoption. ETH
is not BTC. Ultra-sound store of value, exploding active accounts & transaction volume, insanely low fees,
attractive DeFi & staking yields, Visa accepts stablecoins, NFTs are fun, use-case more intuitive than
digital gold. Narrative potential means until ETH search>BTC search, party isn’t over.

Why is narrative not priced in?

Ethereum remains unknown: Few outside crypto are familiar with Ethereum. Check CNBC mentions.
Check Google Search Trends. ETH search results<BTC search by large margin. Why don’t they know? In
the last cycle, the world learned about Bitcoin, not Ethereum. When cryptocurrency mania last happened,
the current narrative didn’t yet exist. No plans for Proof of Stake or EIP1559, no DeFi existed. Notice how
many parts of the Ethereum thesis were either only released in the last year or have yet to be released.

Ethereum is priced via Bitcoin: Due to lack of narrative adoption, the market prices Ethereum relative to
Bitcoin. Ethereum is completely different from Bitcoin yet trades more correlated than stocks within the
same industry. Bitcoin’s narrative has dominated attention in the cryptocurrency space so far.

Is a 16T market cap too high? Not for illiquid, manic, peak! Proof of stake lowers geopolitical risk and
increases network security at that market cap. It also locks up float so price is inelastic to new demand
even at high market caps. Yield incentivizes further institutional flows which increases volatility.

Buyer beware! $30k-50k base case implies $3.5-5.5T market cap, which investors could sustain long
term given fundamental network value. $150k peak, however, implies a $16T market cap, unlikely to be
sustained past short-term. Illiquidity producing upside volatility just as easily seeds downside volatility.