Suavización Expone

α 0.75 Año Bimestre Demanda

1 12545
2 10256
3 13487
2015
4 15982
5 16547
6 20354
1 21500
2 18546
3 25648
2016
4 22530
5 26540
6 32458
1 30485
2 31789
3 45000
2017
4 35450
5 38745
6 32000
1 42564
2 41530
3 51685
2018
4 47201
5 46302
6 53162
1
2
3
2019
4
 2019

5
6

Suavización Expone

α 0.9 Año Bimestre Demanda

1 12545
2 10256
3 13487
2015
4 15982
5 16547
6 20354
1 21500
2 18546
3 25648
2016
4 22530
5 26540
6 32458
1 30485
2 31789
3 45000
2017
4 35450
5 38745
6 32000
1 42564
2 41530
3 51685
2018
4 47201
 2018

5 46302
6 53162
1
2
3
2019 4
5
6

Suavización Exponencial Simple α 0.3

α 0.3 Año Bimestre Demanda

1 12545
2 10256
3 13487
2015
4 15982
5 16547
6 20354
1 21500
2 18546
3 25648
2016
4 22530
5 26540
6 32458
1 30485
2 31789
3 45000
2017
4 35450
2017

5 38745
6 32000
1 42564
2 41530
3 51685
2018
4 47201
5 46302
6 53162
1 47115.79
2 47115.79
3 47115.79
2019
4 47115.79
5 47115.79
6
zación Exponencial Simple α 0.75
Errores
Pronóstico MAPE MAD DCM
14861.83 18.47% 2316.83 5367716.694444
13124.21 27.97% 2868.21 8226619.043403
10973.05 18.64% 2513.95 6319934.127713
12858.51 19.54% 3123.49 9756170.909024
15201.13 8.13% 1345.87 1811370.753429
16210.53 20.36% 4143.47 17168326.5383
19318.13 10.15% 2181.87 4760543.536085
20954.53 12.99% 2408.53 5801032.435564
19148.13 25.34% 6499.87 42248266.94231
24023.03 6.63% 1493.03 2229148.519636
22903.26 13.70% 3636.74 13225889.95909
25630.81 21.03% 6827.19 46610460.71778
30751.20 0.87% 266.20 70864.3810137
30551.55 3.89% 1237.45 1531280.246781
31479.64 30.05% 13520.36 182800195.9699
41619.91 17.40% 6169.91 38067782.39865
36992.48 4.52% 1752.52 3071335.610753
38306.87 19.71% 6306.87 39776600.8655
33576.72 21.11% 8987.28 80771249.70287
40317.18 2.92% 1212.82 1470933.968559
41226.79 20.23% 10458.21 109374055.3061
49070.45 3.96% 1869.45 3494838.473179
47668.36 2.95% 1366.36 1866945.59898
46643.59 12.26% 6518.41 42489661.83252

14.29% 4126.04 27846301.02

 14.29% 4126.04 27846301.02

zación Exponencial Simple α 0.9

Errores
Pronóstico MAPE MAD DCM
14861.83 18.47% 2316.83 5367716.694444
12776.68 24.58% 2520.68 6353844.466944
10508.07 22.09% 2978.93 8874033.874669
13189.11 17.48% 2792.89 7800252.240413
15702.71 5.10% 844.29 712824.4502375
16462.57 19.12% 3891.43 15143219.13021
19964.86 7.14% 1535.14 2356663.70244
21346.49 15.10% 2800.49 7842720.215742
18826.05 26.60% 6821.95 46539021.2987
24965.80 10.81% 2435.80 5933145.301905
22773.58 14.19% 3766.42 14185915.95762
26163.36 19.39% 6294.64 39622517.29669
31828.54 4.41% 1343.54 1805088.458933
30619.35 3.68% 1169.65 1368072.746683
31672.04 29.62% 13327.96 177634641.4971
43667.20 23.18% 8217.20 67522433.94884
36271.72 6.38% 2473.28 6117112.209393
38497.67 20.31% 6497.67 42219741.87907
32649.77 23.29% 9914.23 98292011.94249
41572.58 0.10% 42.58 1812.777116067
41534.26 19.64% 10150.74 103037569.8087
50669.93 7.35% 3468.93 12033445.97837
 47547.89 2.69% 1245.89 1552248.312727
46426.59 12.67% 6735.41 45365757.86787

14.72% 4316.11 29903408.84

Errores
Pronóstico MAPE MAD DCM
14861.83 18.47% 2316.83 5367716.694444
14166.78 38.13% 3910.78 15294226.28028
12993.55 3.66% 493.45 243494.5473361
13141.58 17.77% 2840.42 8067963.999861
13993.71 15.43% 2553.29 6519296.547765
14759.70 27.49% 5594.30 31296236.36798
16437.99 23.54% 5062.01 25623973.03223
17956.59 3.18% 589.41 347402.8768813
18133.41 29.30% 7514.59 56469006.43552
20387.79 9.51% 2142.21 4589065.276157
21030.45 20.76% 5509.55 30355111.01144
22683.32 30.11% 9774.68 95544429.3551
25615.72 15.97% 4869.28 23709869.77468
27076.51 14.82% 4712.49 22207606.39384
28490.25 36.69% 16509.75 272571722.7964
33443.18 5.66% 2006.82 4027336.177281
34045.22 12.13% 4699.78 22087891.49501
35455.16 10.80% 3455.16 11938110.03338
34418.61 19.14% 8145.39 66347379.65224
36862.23 11.24% 4667.77 21788105.34118
38262.56 25.97% 13422.44 180161926.2135
42289.29 10.41% 4911.71 24124883.33089
43762.80 5.48% 2539.20 6447517.137109
44524.56 16.25% 8637.44 74605323.31433
47115.79
47115.79
47115.79
47115.79 17.58% 5286.61 42072316.42
47115.79
47115.79
 Promedio Móvil Doble N=2

n=2 Año Bimestre Demanda Mt M't

1 12545 - -
2 10256 11400.50 -
3 13487 11871.50 11636.00
2015
4 15982 14734.50 13303.00
5 16547 16264.50 15499.50
6 20354 18450.50 17357.50
1 21500 20927.00 19688.75
2 18546 20023.00 20475.00
2016
3 25648 22097.00 21060.00
4 22530 24089.00 23093.00
5 26540 24535.00 24312.00
6 32458 29499.00 27017.00
1 30485 31471.50 30485.25
2 31789 31137.00 31304.25
3 45000 38394.50 34765.75
2017
4 35450 40225.00 39309.75
5 38745 37097.50 38661.25
6 32000 35372.50 36235.00
1 42564 37282.00 36327.25
2 41530 42047.00 39664.50
3 51685 46607.50 44327.25
2018
4 47201 49443.00 48025.25
5 46302 46751.50 48097.25
6 53162 49732.00 48241.75
1
2
3 MAD CON N=2: 5291
2019
4 MAD CON N=3: 5079
 2019

5
6

Promedio Móvil Doble N=3

n=3 Año Bimestre Demanda Mt M't

1 12545 - -
2 10256 - -
3 13487 12096.00 -
2015
4 15982 13241.67 -
5 16547 15338.67 13558.78
6 20354 17627.67 15402.67
1 21500 19467.00 17477.78
2 18546 20133.33 19076.00
3 25648 21898.00 20499.44
2016
4 22530 22241.33 21424.22
5 26540 24906.00 23015.11
6 32458 27176.00 24774.44
1 30485 29827.67 27303.22
2 31789 31577.33 29527.00
3 45000 35758.00 32387.67
2017
4 35450 37413.00 34916.11
5 38745 39731.67 37634.22
6 32000 35398.33 37514.33
1 42564 37769.67 37633.22
2 41530 38698.00 37288.67
3 51685 45259.67 40575.78
2018
4 47201 46805.33 43587.67
2018

5 46302 48396.00 46820.33

6 53162 48888.33 48029.89
1
2
3 MAD CON N=2: 5291
2019 4 MAD CON N=3: 5079
5
6
 Errores
at bt Pronóstico MAPE MAD
- - - - -
- - - - -
12107.00 471.00 - - -
16166.00 2863.00 12578.00 21.30% 3404.00
17029.50 1530.00 19029.00 15.00% 2482.00
19543.50 2186.00 18559.50 8.82% 1794.50
22165.25 2476.50 21729.50 1.07% 229.50
19571.00 -904.00 24641.75 32.87% 6095.75
23134.00 2074.00 18667.00 27.22% 6981.00
25085.00 1992.00 25208.00 11.89% 2678.00
24758.00 446.00 27077.00 2.02% 537.00
31981.00 4964.00 25204.00 22.35% 7254.00
32457.75 1972.50 36945.00 21.19% 6460.00
30969.75 -334.50 34430.25 8.31% 2641.25
42023.25 7257.50 30635.25 31.92% 14364.75
41140.25 1830.50 49280.75 39.01% 13830.75
35533.75 -3127.50 42970.75 10.91% 4225.75
34510.00 -1725.00 32406.25 1.27% 406.25
38236.75 1909.50 32785.00 22.97% 9779.00
44429.50 4765.00 40146.25 3.33% 1383.75
48887.75 4560.50 49194.50 4.82% 2490.50
50860.75 2835.50 53448.25 13.24% 6247.25
45405.75 -2691.50 53696.25 15.97% 7394.25
51222.25 2980.50 42714.25 19.65% 10447.75
54202.75
57183.25
AD CON N=2: 5291.76 60163.75
AD CON N=3: 5079.28 63144.25 15.96% 5291.76
 15.96% 5291.76
66124.75
69105.25
51222.25

Errores
at bt Pronóstico MAPE MAD
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
17118.56 1779.89 - - -
19852.67 2225.00 18898.44 7.15% 1455.56
21456.22 1989.22 22077.67 2.69% 577.67
21190.67 1057.33 23445.44 26.42% 4899.44
23296.56 1398.56 22248.00 13.26% 3400.00
23058.44 817.11 24695.11 9.61% 2165.11
26796.89 1890.89 23875.56 10.04% 2664.44
29577.56 2401.56 28687.78 11.62% 3770.22
32352.11 2524.44 31979.11 4.90% 1494.11
33627.67 2050.33 34876.56 9.71% 3087.56
39128.33 3370.33 35678.00 20.72% 9322.00
39909.89 2496.89 42498.67 19.88% 7048.67
41829.11 2097.44 42406.78 9.45% 3661.78
33282.33 -2116.00 43926.56 37.27% 11926.56
37906.11 136.44 31166.33 26.78% 11397.67
40107.33 1409.33 38042.56 8.40% 3487.44
49943.56 4683.89 41516.67 19.67% 10168.33
50023.00 3217.67 54627.44 15.73% 7426.44
 49971.67 1575.67 53240.67 14.99% 6938.67
49746.78 858.44 51547.33 3.04% 1614.67
50605.22
51463.67
AD CON N=2: 5291.76 52322.11
AD CON N=3: 5079.28 53180.56
14.28% 5079.28
54039.00
54897.44
49746.78
 Prom
rrores
DCM n=2
- P1 0.2
- P2 0.8
-
11587216.00
6160324.00
3220230.25
52670.25
37158168.06
48734361.00
7171684.00
288369.00
52620516.00
41731600.00
6976201.56
206346042.56
191289645.56
17856963.06
165039.06
95628841.00
1914764.06
6202590.25
39028132.56
54674933.06
109155480.06

44664941.49
 44664941.49

Promedi

rrores n=4
DCM P1 0.5
- P2 0.1
- P3 0.1
- P4 0.3
-
-
2118641.98
333698.78
24004555.86
11560000.00
4687706.12
7099264.20
14214575.60
2232368.01
9532999.31
86899684.00
49683701.78
13408616.49
142242727.42
129906805.44
12162268.75
103395002.78
55152077.09
48145095.11
2607148.44

37862470.38

Prom

n=2
P1 0.7
P2 0.3
 Promedio M

n=4
P1 0.05
P2 0.1
P3 0.25
P4 0.6
Promedio Móvil Ponderado 0.2, 0.8

Año Bimestre Demanda Pronóstico

1 12545 -
2 10256 -
3 13487 10713.80
2015
4 15982 12840.80
5 16547 15483.00
6 20354 16434.00
1 21500 19592.60
2 18546 21270.80
2016
3 25648 19136.80
4 22530 24227.60
5 26540 23153.60
6 32458 25738.00
1 30485 31274.40
2 31789 30879.60
3 45000 31528.20
2017
4 35450 42357.80
5 38745 37360.00
6 32000 38086.00
1 42564 33349.00
2 41530 40451.20
3 51685 41736.80
2018
4 47201 49654.00
5 46302 48097.80
6 53162 46481.80
1 51790.00 51790.00
2 52064.40 52064.40
3 52009.52 52009.52
2019
4 52020.50 52020.50
 2019

5 52018.30 52018.30
6 52018.74

Promedio Móvil Ponderado 0.5,0.1,0.1,0.3

Año Bimestre Demanda Pronóstico

2015 1 12545 -
2 10256 -
3 13487 -
4 15982 -
5 16547 13441.40
6 20354 13039.00
2016 1 21500 16102.60
2 18546 18131.10
3 25648 18022.70
4 22530 21876.00
5 26540 21928.40
6 32458 22052.80
2017 1 30485 27468.40
2 31789 26310.30
3 45000 29101.00
4 35450 35956.40
5 38745 33556.40
6 32000 35563.00
2018 1 42564 39519.50
2 41530 37568.70
3 51685 39287.90
4 47201 39914.90
5 46302 44763.80
 6 53162 44544.20
2019 1 51141.40 51141.40
2 48889.32 48889.32
3 48248.14 48248.14
4 51058.51 51058.51
5 50602.00 50602.00
6 49555.92

Promedio Móvil Ponderado 0.7, 0.3

Año Bimestre Demanda Pronóstico

1 12545 -
2 10256 -
3 13487 11858.30
2015
4 15982 11225.30
5 16547 14235.50
6 20354 16151.50
1 21500 17689.10
2 18546 20697.80
3 25648 20613.80
2016
4 22530 20676.60
5 26540 24712.60
6 32458 23733.00
1 30485 28315.40
2 31789 31866.10
3 45000 30876.20
2017
 2017
4 35450 35752.30
5 38745 42135.00
6 32000 36438.50
1 42564 36721.50
2 41530 35169.20
3 51685 42253.80
2018
4 47201 44576.50
5 46302 50339.80
6 53162 46931.30
1 48360.00 48360.00
2 51721.40 51721.40
3 49368.42 49368.42
2019
4 51015.51 51015.51
5 49862.55 49862.55
6 50669.62

Promedio Móvil Ponderado 0.05, 0.1, 0.25 y 0.6

Año Bimestre Demanda Pronóstico

2015 1 12545 -
2 10256 -
3 13487 -
4 15982 -
5 16547 14613.80
6 20354 15785.20
2016 1 21500 18621.70
 2 18546 20442.30
3 25648 19365.35
4 22530 23193.00
5 26540 22859.60
6 32458 25048.60
2017 1 30485 29645.20
2 31789 30186.00
3 45000 31267.45
4 35450 39618.65
5 38745 37223.15
6 32000 38198.95
2018 1 42564 34681.25
2 41530 39185.40
3 51685 40696.25
4 47201 47249.90
5 46302 47523.05
6 53162 46826.45
2019 1 50777.05 50777.05
2 50746.98 50746.98
3 50773.75 50773.75
4 50886.80 50886.80
5 50839.07 50839.07
6 50839.87
Errores
MAPE MAD DCM
- - -
- - -
20.56% 2773.20 7690638.24
19.65% 3141.20 9867137.44
6.43% 1064.00 1132096.00
19.26% 3920.00 15366400.00
8.87% 1907.40 3638174.76
14.69% 2724.80 7424535.04
25.39% 6511.20 42395725.44
7.53% 1697.60 2881845.76
12.76% 3386.40 11467704.96
20.70% 6720.00 45158400.00
2.59% 789.40 623152.36
2.86% 909.40 827008.36
29.94% 13471.80 181489395.24
19.49% 6907.80 47717700.84
3.57% 1385.00 1918225.00
19.02% 6086.00 37039396.00
21.65% 9215.00 84916225.00
2.60% 1078.80 1163809.44
19.25% 9948.20 98966683.24
5.20% 2453.00 6017209.00
3.88% 1795.80 3224897.64
12.57% 6680.20 44625072.04

13.57% 4298.46 29797792.35

13.57% 4298.46 29797792.35

Errores
MAPE MAD DCM
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
18.77% 3105.60 9644751.36
35.94% 7315.00 53509225.00
25.10% 5397.40 29131926.76
2.24% 414.90 172142.01
29.73% 7625.30 58145200.09
2.90% 654.00 427716.00
17.38% 4611.60 21266854.56
32.06% 10405.20 108268187.04
9.90% 3016.60 9099875.56
17.23% 5478.70 30016153.69
35.33% 15899.00 252778201.00
1.43% 506.40 256440.96
13.39% 5188.60 26921569.96
11.13% 3563.00 12694969.00
7.15% 3044.50 9268980.25
9.54% 3961.30 15691897.69
23.99% 12397.10 153688088.41
15.44% 7286.10 53087253.21
3.32% 1538.20 2366059.24
16.21% 8617.80 74266476.84

16.41% 5501.32 46035098.43

Errores
MAPE MAD DCM
- - -
- - -
12.08% 1628.70 2652663.69
29.76% 4756.70 22626194.89
13.97% 2311.50 5343032.25
20.65% 4202.50 17661006.25
17.73% 3810.90 14522958.81
11.60% 2151.80 4630243.24
19.63% 5034.20 25343169.64
8.23% 1853.40 3435091.56
6.89% 1827.40 3339390.76
26.88% 8725.00 76125625.00
7.12% 2169.60 4707164.16
0.24% 77.10 5944.41
31.39% 14123.80 199481726.44
 0.85% 302.30 91385.29
8.75% 3390.00 11492100.00
13.87% 4438.50 19700282.25
13.73% 5842.50 34134806.25
15.32% 6360.80 40459776.64
18.25% 9431.20 88947533.44
5.56% 2624.50 6888000.25
8.72% 4037.80 16303828.84
11.72% 6230.70 38821622.49

13.77% 4333.22 28941524.84

.6

Errores
MAPE MAD DCM
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
11.68% 1933.20 3737262.24
22.45% 4568.80 20873933.44
13.39% 2878.30 8284610.89
10.22% 1896.30 3595953.69
24.50% 6282.65 39471691.02
2.94% 663.00 439569.00
13.87% 3680.40 13545344.16
22.83% 7409.40 54899208.36
2.75% 839.80 705264.04
5.04% 1603.00 2569609.00
30.52% 13732.55 188582929.50
11.76% 4168.65 17377642.82
3.93% 1521.85 2316027.42
19.37% 6198.95 38426981.10
18.52% 7882.75 62137747.56
5.65% 2344.60 5497149.16
21.26% 10988.75 120752626.56
0.10% 48.90 2391.21
2.64% 1221.05 1490963.10
11.92% 6335.55 40139193.80

12.77% 4309.92 31242304.90

 Promedio Móvil Simple

n=2 Año Bimestre

1
2
3
2015
4
5
6
1
2
3
2016
4
5
6
1
2
3
2017
4
5
6
1
2
3
2018
4
5
6
1
2
3
2019
4
 2019

5
6

Promedio Móvil Simple

n=3 Año Bimestre

1
2
3
2015
4
5
6
1
2
3
2016
4
5
6
1
2
3
2017
4
5
6
1
2
3
2018
4
5
6
 1
2
3
2019
4
5
6

Promedio Móvil Simple

n=4 Año Bimestre

1
2
3
2015
4
5
6
1
2
3
2016
4
5
6
1
2
3
2017
4
5
 2017

6
1
2
3
2018
4
5
6
1
2
3
2019
4
5
6

Promedio Móvil Simple

n=5 Año Bimestre

1
2
3
2015
4
5
6
1
2
3
2016
4
2016

5
6
1
2
3
2017
4
5
6
1
2
3
2018
4
5
6
1
2
3
2019
4
5
6
omedio Móvil Simple n=2
Errores
Demanda Pronóstico MAPE
12545 - -
10256 - -
13487 11400.50 15.47%
15982 11871.50 25.72%
16547 14734.50 10.95%
20354 16264.50 20.09%
21500 18450.50 14.18%
18546 20927.00 12.84%
25648 20023.00 21.93%
22530 22097.00 1.92%
26540 24089.00 9.24%
32458 24535.00 24.41%
30485 29499.00 3.23%
31789 31471.50 1.00%
45000 31137.00 30.81%
35450 38394.50 8.31%
38745 40225.00 3.82%
32000 37097.50 15.93%
42564 35372.50 16.90%
41530 37282.00 10.23%
51685 42047.00 18.65%
47201 46607.50 1.26%
46302 49443.00 6.78%
53162 46751.50 12.06%
49732.00 49732.00
51447.00 51447.00
50589.50 50589.50
12.99%
51018.25 51018.25
 12.99%

50803.88 50803.88
50911.06

omedio Móvil Simple n=3

Errores
Demanda Pronóstico MAPE
12545 - -
10256 - -
13487 - -
15982 12096.00 24.31%
16547 13241.67 19.98%
20354 15338.67 24.64%
21500 17627.67 18.01%
18546 19467.00 4.97%
25648 20133.33 21.50%
22530 21898.00 2.81%
26540 22241.33 16.20%
32458 24906.00 23.27%
30485 27176.00 10.85%
31789 29827.67 6.17%
45000 31577.33 29.83%
35450 35758.00 0.87%
38745 37413.00 3.44%
32000 39731.67 24.16%
42564 35398.33 16.84%
41530 37769.67 9.05%
51685 38698.00 25.13%
47201 45259.67 4.11%
46302 46805.33 1.09%
53162 48396.00 8.97%
 48888.33 48888.33
49450.78 49450.78
50500.37 50500.37
14.10%
49613.16 49613.16
49854.77 49854.77
49989.43

omedio Móvil Simple n=4

Errores
Demanda Pronóstico MAPE
12545 - -
10256 - -
13487 - -
15982 - -
16547 13067.50 21.03%
20354 14068.00 30.88%
21500 16592.50 22.83%
18546 18595.75 0.27%
25648 19236.75 25.00%
22530 21512.00 4.52%
26540 22056.00 16.90%
32458 23316.00 28.17%
30485 26794.00 12.11%
31789 28003.25 11.91%
45000 30318.00 32.63%
35450 34933.00 1.46%
38745 35681.00 7.91%
 32000 37746.00 17.96%
42564 37798.75 11.20%
41530 37189.75 10.45%
51685 38709.75 25.10%
47201 41944.75 11.14%
46302 45745.00 1.20%
53162 46679.50 12.19%
49587.50 49587.50
49063.13 49063.13
49528.66 49528.66
15.24%
50335.32 50335.32
49628.65 49628.65
49638.94

omedio Móvil Simple n=5

Errores
Demanda Pronóstico MAPE
12545 - -
10256 - -
13487 - -
15982 - -
16547 - -
20354 13763.40 32.38%
21500 15325.20 28.72%
18546 17574.00 5.24%
25648 18585.80 27.54%
22530 20519.00 8.93%
 26540 21715.60 18.18%
32458 22952.80 29.28%
30485 25144.40 17.52%
31789 27532.20 13.39%
45000 28760.40 36.09%
35450 33254.40 6.19%
38745 35036.40 9.57%
32000 36293.80 13.42%
42564 36596.80 14.02%
41530 38751.80 6.69%
51685 38057.80 26.37%
47201 41304.80 12.49%
46302 42996.00 7.14%
53162 45856.40 13.74%
47976.00 47976.00
49265.20 49265.20
48781.24 48781.24
17.20%
49097.29 49097.29
49656.35 49656.35
48955.21
 MAD DCM
- -
- -
2086.50 4353482.25
4110.50 16896210.25
1812.50 3285156.25
4089.50 16724010.25
3049.50 9299450.25
2381.00 5669161.00
5625.00 31640625.00
433.00 187489.00
2451.00 6007401.00
7923.00 62773929.00
986.00 972196.00
317.50 100806.25
13863.00 192182769.00
2944.50 8670080.25
1480.00 2190400.00
5097.50 25984506.25
7191.50 51717672.25
4248.00 18045504.00
9638.00 92891044.00
593.50 352242.25
3141.00 9865881.00
6410.50 41094510.25

4085.11 27313842.08
4085.11 27313842.08

Errores
MAD DCM α 0.7
- - β 0.1
- -
- -
3886.00 15100996.00
3305.33 10925228.44
5015.33 25153568.44
3872.33 14994965.44
921.00 848241.00
5514.67 30411548.44
632.00 399424.00
4298.67 18478535.11
7552.00 57032704.00
3309.00 10949481.00
1961.33 3846828.44
13422.67 180167980.44
308.00 94864.00
1332.00 1774224.00
7731.67 59778669.44
7165.67 51346778.78
3760.33 14140106.78
12987.00 168662169.00
1941.33 3768775.11
503.33 253344.44
4766.00 22714756.00
4485.03 32897294.68

MAD DCM
- -
- - α 0.4
- - β 0.4
- -
3479.50 12106920.25
6286.00 39513796.00
4907.50 24083556.25
49.75 2475.06
6411.25 41104126.56
1018.00 1036324.00
4484.00 20106256.00
9142.00 83576164.00
3691.00 13623481.00
3785.75 14331903.06
14682.00 215561124.00
517.00 267289.00
3064.00 9388096.00
 5746.00 33016516.00
4765.25 22707607.56
4340.25 18837770.06
12975.25 168357112.56
5256.25 27628164.06
557.00 310249.00
6482.50 42022806.25

5082.01 39379086.83

MAD DCM
- -
- -
- - α 0.1
- - β 0.9
- -
6590.60 43436008.36
6174.80 38128155.04
972.00 944784.00
7062.20 49874668.84
2011.00 4044121.00
 4824.40 23274835.36
9505.20 90348827.04
5340.60 28522008.36
4256.80 18120346.24
16239.60 263724608.16
2195.60 4820659.36
3708.60 13753713.96
4293.80 18436718.44
5967.20 35607475.84
2778.20 7718395.24
13627.20 185700579.84
5896.20 34765174.44
3306.00 10929636.00
7305.60 53371791.36

5897.66 48711710.89
 Regresion lineal

Año Bimestre Periodo Demanda

1 1 12545
2 2 10256
3 3 13487
2015
4 4 15982
5 5 16547
6 6 20354
1 7 21500
2 8 18546
3 9 25648
2016
4 10 22530
5 11 26540
6 12 32458
1 13 30485
2 14 31789
3 15 45000
2017
4 16 35450
5 17 38745
6 18 32000
1 19 42564
2 20 41530
3 21 51685
2018
4 22 47201
5 23 46302
6 24 53162
1 25 10041.86
2 26 11821.94
3 27 13602.01
2019
4 28 15382.09
2019

5 29 17162.17
6 30

HOLT α 0.7, β 0.1

Año Bimestre Periodo Demanda

- - 0 -
1 1 12545
2 2 10256
3 3 13487
2015
4 4 15982
5 5 16547
6 6 20354
1 7 21500
2 8 18546
3 9 25648
2016
4 10 22530
5 11 26540
6 12 32458
1 13 30485
2 14 31789
3 15 45000
2017
4 16 35450
5 17 38745
6 18 32000
1 19 42564
2 20 41530
3 21 51685
2018
4 22 47201
5 23 46302
2018

6 24 53162
1 53837.05
2 55725.57
3 57614.09
2019 4 59502.61
5 61391.13
6 63279.66

HOLT α 0.4, β 0.4

Año Bimestre Periodo Demanda

- - 0 -
1 1 12545
2 2 10256
3 3 13487
2015
4 4 15982
5 5 16547
6 6 20354
1 7 21500
2 8 18546
3 9 25648
2016
4 10 22530
5 11 26540
6 12 32458
1 13 30485
2 14 31789
2017
 3 15 45000
2017
4 16 35450
5 17 38745
6 18 32000
1 19 42564
2 20 41530
3 21 51685
2018
4 22 47201
5 23 46302
6 24 53162
1 53544.02
2 55644.41
3 57744.80
2019
4 59845.18
5 61945.57
6 64045.96

HOLT PREGUNTA 6,15,18

Año Bimestre Periodo Demanda

- - 0 -
1 1 12545
2 2 10256
3 3 13487
2015
4 4 15982
5 5 16547
6 6 20354
 1 7 21500
2 8 18546
3 9 25648
2016
4 10 22530
5 11 26540
6 12 32458
1 13 30485
2 14 31789
3 15 45000
2017
4 16 35450
5 17 38745
6 18 32000
1 19 42564
2 20 41530
3 21 51685
2018
4 22 47201
5 23 46302
6 24 53162
1 52687.40
2 54440.75
3 56194.10
2019
4 57947.44
5 59700.79
6 61454.14
 Errores
Pronóstico MAPE MAD
10041.86 19.95% 2503.14
11821.94 15.27% 1565.94
13602.01 0.85% 115.01
15382.09 3.75% 599.91
17162.17 3.72% 615.17
18942.25 6.94% 1411.75
10041.86 53.29% 11458.14
11821.94 36.26% 6724.06
13602.01 46.97% 12045.99
15382.09 31.73% 7147.91
17162.17 35.33% 9377.83
18942.25 41.64% 13515.75
10041.86 67.06% 20443.14
11821.94 62.81% 19967.06
13602.01 69.77% 31397.99
15382.09 56.61% 20067.91
17162.17 55.70% 21582.83
18942.25 40.81% 13057.75
10041.86 76.41% 32522.14
11821.94 71.53% 29708.06
13602.01 73.68% 38082.99
15382.09 67.41% 31818.91
17162.17 62.93% 29139.83
18942.25 64.37% 34219.75
10041.86
11821.94
13602.01
46.80% 17500.90
15382.09
 46.80% 17500.90

17162.17
18942.25

Lt Tt Pronóstico
8261.78 1780.08 -
11794.06 1955.30 10041.86
11304.01 1710.76 13749.36
13345.33 1743.82 13014.77
15714.14 1806.32 15089.15
16839.04 1738.18 17520.46
19820.96 1862.55 18577.21
21555.05 1849.70 21683.52
20003.63 1509.59 23404.76
24407.57 1799.03 21513.22
23632.98 1541.66 26206.59
26130.39 1637.24 25174.64
31050.89 1965.57 27767.63
31244.44 1788.36 33016.46
32162.14 1701.30 33032.80
41659.03 2480.86 33863.44
38056.97 1872.56 44139.89
39100.36 1789.65 39929.53
34667.00 1167.35 40890.01
40545.10 1638.42 35834.35
41726.06 1592.68 42183.53
49175.12 2178.31 43318.73
48446.73 1887.64 51353.43
47511.71 1605.38 50334.37
51948.53 1888.52 49117.09
53837.05
55725.57
57614.09
59502.61
61391.13
63279.66

Lt Tt Pronóstico
8261.78 1780.08 -
11043.12 2180.58 10041.86
12036.62 1705.75 13223.70
13640.22 1664.89 13742.37
15575.87 1773.19 15305.11
17028.23 1644.86 17349.06
19345.46 1913.81 18673.10
21355.56 1952.32 21259.27
21403.13 1190.42 23307.88
23815.33 1679.13 22593.55
24308.68 1204.82 25494.47
25924.10 1369.06 25513.50
29359.10 2195.43 27293.16
31126.72 2024.31 31554.53
32606.22 1806.39 33151.03
 38647.56 3500.37 34412.60
39468.76 2428.70 42147.93
40636.47 1924.31 41897.46
38336.47 234.58 42560.78
40168.23 873.45 38571.05
41237.01 951.58 41041.68
45987.16 2471.01 42188.59
47955.30 2269.86 48458.17
48655.90 1642.16 50225.16
51443.63 2100.39 50298.05
53544.02
55644.41
57744.80
59845.18
61945.57
64045.96

Lt Tt Pronóstico
8261.78 1780.08 -
10292.17 2005.36 10041.86
12093.38 1821.62 12297.53
13872.20 1783.10 13915.00
15687.97 1812.50 15655.30
17405.13 1726.69 17500.48
19254.04 1836.69 19131.82
21131.65 1873.52 21090.73
22559.26 1472.20 23005.18
24193.11 1617.69 24031.45
25482.71 1322.41 25810.79
26778.62 1298.55 26805.13
28515.25 1692.83 28077.17
30235.77 1717.75 30208.08
31937.07 1702.94 31953.52
34776.01 2725.34 33640.01
37296.22 2540.72 37501.35
39727.74 2442.45 39836.94
41153.17 1527.13 42170.19
42668.67 1516.66 42680.30
43919.80 1277.68 44185.33
45846.23 1861.56 45197.48
47657.11 1815.95 47707.79
49155.95 1530.55 49473.06
50934.06 1753.35 50686.51
52687.40
54440.75
56194.10
57947.44
59700.79
61454.14
 DCM
6265709.86
2452159.91
13228.40
359889.40
378433.59
1993046.66 Pendiente
131288972.26 Intersección
45213017.97
145105759.86
51092586.29
87943703.66
182675580.33
417921973.06
398683589.22
985833475.71
402720924.52
465818569.58
170504914.54
1057689590.18
882568983.96
1450313763.07
1012442895.25
849129717.77
1170991498.36

450485641.53
450485641.53

Errores
MAPE MAD DCM
- - -
19.95% 2503.14 6265709.86
34.06% 3493.36 12203530.49
3.50% 472.23 223002.23
5.59% 892.85 797182.60
5.88% 973.46 947629.85
8.73% 1776.79 3156966.67
0.85% 183.52 33677.76
26.20% 4858.76 23607540.01
16.12% 4134.78 17096412.31
16.32% 3676.59 13517327.84
5.14% 1365.36 1864201.78
14.45% 4690.37 21999548.16
8.30% 2531.46 6408265.35
3.91% 1243.80 1547038.83
24.75% 11136.56 124023021.31
24.51% 8689.89 75514157.71
3.06% 1184.53 1403114.28
27.78% 8890.01 79032223.83
15.81% 6729.65 45288200.01
1.57% 653.53 427098.08
16.19% 8366.27 69994407.38
8.80% 4152.43 17242712.70
8.71% 4032.37 16260042.57
7.61% 4044.91 16361296.63

12.83% 3778.19 23133929.51

Errores
MAPE MAD DCM
- - -
19.95% 2503.14 6265709.86
28.94% 2967.70 8807218.31
1.89% 255.37 65211.76
4.24% 676.89 458180.78
4.85% 802.06 643297.17
8.26% 1680.90 2825431.68
1.12% 240.73 57952.76
25.68% 4761.88 22675544.58
11.91% 3054.45 9329640.09
13.16% 2964.47 8788065.12
3.87% 1026.50 1053701.88
15.91% 5164.84 26675572.15
3.51% 1069.53 1143895.07
4.28% 1362.03 1855119.26
23.53% 10587.40 112093004.75
18.89% 6697.93 44862262.74
8.14% 3152.46 9937990.53
33.00% 10560.78 111530105.25
9.38% 3992.95 15943644.88
1.18% 488.32 238452.53
18.37% 9496.41 90181715.91
2.66% 1257.17 1580465.85
8.47% 3923.16 15391200.14
5.39% 2863.95 8202187.78

11.52% 3397.96 20858565.45

Errores
MAPE MAD DCM
- - -
19.95% 2503.14 6265709.86
19.91% 2041.53 4167861.04
3.17% 428.00 183186.16
2.04% 326.70 106730.29
5.76% 953.48 909120.16
6.00% 1222.18 1493720.37
1.90% 409.27 167504.62
24.04% 4459.18 19884251.01
6.30% 1616.55 2613219.05
14.56% 3280.79 10763611.72
1.00% 265.13 70293.22
13.50% 4380.83 19191689.21
0.91% 276.92 76685.67
0.52% 164.52 27066.96
25.24% 11359.99 129049337.88
5.79% 2051.35 4208047.14
2.82% 1091.94 1192327.87
31.78% 10170.19 103432762.89
0.27% 116.30 13525.65
6.39% 2655.33 7050786.95
12.55% 6487.52 42087906.78
1.07% 506.79 256837.56
6.85% 3171.06 10055620.72
4.66% 2475.49 6128070.14

9.04% 2600.59 15391494.71

1780.08
8261.78
 PREGUNTA 6 MAPE

Promedio Móvil Doble (n=2) 15.96%

Regresión Lineal
46.80%
Holt (alfa=0,1, beta=0,9) 9.04%
Suavización Exponencial Simple (alfa=0,8) 14.42%

PREGUNTA 18 MAPE

Holt (alfa=0,1, beta=0,8) 8.93%

Holt (alfa=0,75, beta=0,2) 13.79%
Holt (alfa=0,05, beta=0,1) 11.22%
Holt (alfa=0,9, beta=0,6) 18.47%
 PREGUNTA 15 MAD

Holt (alfa=0,1, beta=0,9) 6278.93

Promedio Móvil Doble (n=2) 5291.76
Promedio Móvil Doble (n=3) 5079.28
Holt (alfa=0,45, beta=0,15) 3247.81