PROMEDIOS MOVILES

AÑO TRIMESTRE PPM=3

1 29200
2 31300
2007
3 28900
4 33600
1 32000
2 35200
2008
3 29400
4 35800
1 35000
2 36658
2009
3 30138
4 37268
1 37495
2 40392
2010
3 34510
4 42553
1 43285
2 42204
2011
3 35316
4 43935
1 39240
2 44780
2012
3 39078
4 35183
1 42241
2 45146
2013
3 41890
4 43303
1 40024
2 37272
2014
3 33525
4 44624
1 42435
2 45067
2015
3 42794
4 46262
1 46858
2 48743
2016
3 42690
4 46341
1 42615
2 46220
2017
3 42475
 2017
4 45950
1 46264
2 44896.3
2018
3 45703.4
4 45621.3

SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL

AÑO TRIMESTRE real

1 29200
2 31300
2007
3 28900
4 33600
1 32000
2 35200
2008
3 29400
4 35800
1 35000
2 36658
2009
3 30138
4 37268
1 37495
2 40392
2010
3 34510
4 42553
1 43285
2 42204
2011
3 35316
4 43935
1 39240
2 44780
2012
3 39078
4 35183
1 42241
2 45146
2013
3 41890
4 43303
1 40024
2 37272
2014
3 33525
4 44624
 1 42435
2 45067
2015
3 42794
4 46262
1 46858
2 48743
2016
3 42690
4 46341
1 42615
2 46220
2017
3 42475
4 45950
1 46264
2 47096.3
2018
3 47568.2
4 48044.9

REGRESION LINEAL

AÑO TRIMESTRE Valor x

1 1 29200
2 2 31300
2007
3 3 28900
4 4 33600
1 5 32000
2 6 35200
2008
3 7 29400
4 8 35800
1 9 35000
2 10 36658
2009
3 11 30138
4 12 37268
1 13 37495
2 14 40392
2010
2010
3 15 34510
4 16 42553
1 17 43285
2 18 42204
2011
3 19 35316
4 20 43935
1 21 39240
2 22 44780
2012
3 23 39078
4 24 35183
1 25 42241
2 26 45146
2013
3 27 41890
4 28 43303
1 29 40024
2 30 37272
2014
3 31 33525
4 32 44624
1 33 42435
2 34 45067
2015
3 35 42794
4 36 46262
1 37 46858
2 38 48743
2016
3 39 42690
4 40 46341
1 41 42615
2 42 46220
2017
3 43 42475
4 44 45950
1 45 46264
2 46 44745.6
2018
3 47 45083.5
4 48 45421.5
 Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E

29800.0 3800.0 14440000.0 3800.0 3800.0 3800.0

31266.7 733.3 537777.8 4533.3 2266.7 4533.3
31500.0 3700.0 13690000.0 8233.3 2744.4 8233.3
33600.0 -4200.0 17640000.0 12433.3 3108.3 4033.3
32200.0 3600.0 12960000.0 16033.3 3206.7 7633.3
33466.7 1533.3 2351111.1 17566.7 2927.8 9166.7
33400.0 3258.0 10614564.0 20824.7 2975.0 12424.7
35819.3 -5681.3 32277548.4 26506.0 3313.3 6743.3
33932.0 3336.0 11128896.0 29842.0 3315.8 10079.3
34688.0 2807.0 7879249.0 32649.0 3264.9 12886.3
34967.0 5425.0 29430625.0 38074.0 3461.3 18311.3
38385.0 -3875.0 15015625.0 41949.0 3495.8 14436.3
37465.7 5087.3 25880960.4 47036.3 3618.2 19523.7
39151.7 4133.3 17084444.4 51169.7 3655.0 23657.0
40116.0 2088.0 4359744.0 53257.7 3550.5 25745.0
42680.7 -7364.7 54238315.1 60622.3 3788.9 18380.3
40268.3 3666.7 13444444.4 64289.0 3781.7 22047.0
40485.0 -1245.0 1550025.0 65534.0 3640.8 20802.0
39497.0 5283.0 27910089.0 70817.0 3727.2 26085.0
42651.7 -3573.7 12771093.4 74390.7 3719.5 22511.3
41032.7 -5849.7 34218600.1 80240.3 3821.0 16661.7
39680.3 2560.7 6557013.8 82801.0 3763.7 19222.3
38834.0 6312.0 39841344.0 89113.0 3874.5 25534.3
40856.7 1033.3 1067777.8 90146.3 3756.1 26567.7
43092.3 210.7 44380.4 90357.0 3614.3 26778.3
43446.3 -3422.3 11712365.4 93779.3 3606.9 23356.0
41739.0 -4467.0 19954089.0 98246.3 3638.8 18889.0
40199.7 -6674.7 44551175.1 104921.0 3747.2 12214.3
36940.3 7683.7 59038733.4 112604.7 3882.9 19898.0
38473.7 3961.3 15692161.8 116566.0 3885.5 23859.3
40194.7 4872.3 23739632.1 121438.3 3917.4 28731.7
44042.0 -1248.0 1557504.0 122686.3 3833.9 27483.7
43432.0 2830.0 8008900.0 125516.3 3803.5 30313.7
44707.7 2150.3 4623933.4 127666.7 3754.9 32464.0
45304.7 3438.3 11822136.1 131105.0 3745.9 35902.3
47287.7 -4597.7 21138538.8 135702.7 3769.5 31304.7
46097.0 244.0 59536.0 135946.7 3674.2 31548.7
45924.7 -3309.7 10953893.4 139256.3 3664.6 28239.0
43882.0 2338.0 5466244.0 141594.3 3630.6 30577.0
45058.7 -2583.7 6675333.4 144178.0 3604.5 27993.3
43770.0 2180.0 4752400.0 146358.0 3569.7 30173.3
44881.7 1382.3 1910845.4 147740.3 3517.6 31555.7
44896.3 0.0 0.0 147740.3 3435.8 31555.7
45703.4 0.0 0.0 147740.3 3357.7 31555.7
45621.3 0.0 0.0 147740.3 3283.1 31555.7

alfa: 0.01

Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E

29200 0 0
29493.0 1807.01 3265285.1 1807.0 1807.0 1807.0
29807.0 -906.98 822612.7 907.0 453.5 -907.0
30097.0 3503.0 12271219.2 3503.0 1167.7 3503.0
30434.0 1566.0 2452481.3 5069.1 1267.3 5069.1
30755.0 4445.1 19758469.5 9514.1 1902.8 9514.1
31107.9 -1707.9 2917059.0 11222.1 1870.3 7806.2
31402.9 4397.1 19334224.6 15619.1 2231.3 12203.3
31761.9 3238.1 10485162.1 18857.2 2357.2 15441.3
32112.9 4545.1 20657843.1 23402.3 2600.3 19986.4
32480.5 -2342.5 5487212.6 25744.8 2574.5 17643.9
32782.9 4485.1 20116570.5 30229.9 2748.2 22129.1
33156.5 4338.5 18822408.7 34568.4 2880.7 26467.6
33532.5 6859.5 47053289.0 41428.0 3186.8 33327.1
33937.4 572.6 327905.1 42000.6 3000.0 33899.7
34283.5 8269.5 68385291.8 50270.1 3351.3 42169.3
34710.0 8575.0 73530968.0 58845.1 3677.8 50744.3
35143.8 7060.2 49846141.6 65905.3 3876.8 57804.5
35566.9 -250.8 62925.7 66156.2 3675.3 57553.6
35921.0 8014.0 64224196.0 74170.2 3903.7 65567.6
36361.3 2878.7 8286683.4 77048.8 3852.4 68446.3
36754.7 8025.3 64404958.6 85074.1 4051.1 76471.6
37203.5 1874.5 3513675.3 86948.6 3952.2 78346.0
37595.3 -2412.3 5819143.0 89360.9 3885.3 75933.7
37948.1 4292.9 18428904.6 93653.8 3902.2 80226.6
38371.5 6774.5 45893714.8 100428.3 4017.1 87001.1
38824.0 3066.0 9400601.3 103494.3 3980.5 90067.2
39243.9 4059.2 16476698.7 107553.4 3983.5 94126.3
39677.9 346.1 119806.0 107899.6 3853.6 94472.4
40079.1 -2807.1 7879810.4 110706.7 3817.5 91665.4
40452.8 -6927.8 47994551.4 117634.5 3921.1 84737.5
40789.1 3835.0 14706841.5 121469.4 3918.4 88572.5
41236.3 1198.7 1436929.6 122668.2 3833.4 89771.2
41661.6 3405.4 11596612.9 126073.5 3820.4 93176.6
42113.3 680.7 463379.7 126754.3 3728.1 93857.3
42542.2 3719.8 13836837.6 130474.0 3727.8 97577.1
43005.8 3852.2 14839290.8 134326.2 3731.3 101429.3
43475.4 5267.6 27747715.1 139593.8 3772.8 106696.9
43963.8 -1273.8 1622591.9 140867.6 3707.0 105423.1
44391.7 1949.3 3799770.5 142816.9 3662.0 107372.4
44856.1 -2241.1 5022529.2 145058.0 3626.5 105131.3
45283.2 936.8 877519.3 145994.8 3560.8 106068.0
45746.4 -3271.4 10702254.2 149266.2 3554.0 102796.6
46172.2 -222.2 49359.5 149488.4 3476.5 102574.4
46632.7 -368.7 135910.2 149857.1 3405.8 102205.8
47096.3 0.0 0.0 149857.1 3330.2 102205.8
47568.2 0.0 0.0 149857.1 3257.8 102205.8
48044.9 0.0 0.0 149857.1 3188.4 102205.8

Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E

29537.9 -337.9 114208.3 337.9 337.9 -337.9
29875.9 1424.1 2028076.9 1424.1 712.1 1424.1
30213.8 -1313.8 1726179.5 1313.8 437.9 -1313.8
30551.8 3048.2 9291592.3 3048.2 762.1 3048.2
30889.7 1110.3 1232686.5 4158.5 831.7 4158.5
31227.7 3972.3 15779302.3 8130.8 1355.1 8130.8
31565.6 -2165.6 4689954.0 10296.4 1470.9 5965.2
31903.6 3896.4 15182109.6 14192.8 1774.1 9861.6
32241.5 2758.5 7609187.1 16951.3 1883.5 12620.1
32579.5 4078.5 16634393.3 21029.8 2103.0 16698.6
32917.4 -2779.4 7725169.1 23809.3 2164.5 13919.2
33255.4 4012.6 16101231.6 27821.9 2318.5 17931.8
33593.3 3901.7 15223160.1 31723.6 2440.3 21833.5
33931.3 6460.7 41741156.9 38184.3 2727.5 28294.2
34269.2 240.8 57981.0 38425.1 2561.7 28535.0
34607.2 7945.8 63136457.9 46371.0 2898.2 36480.9
34945.1 8339.9 69553901.2 54710.9 3218.3 44820.8
35283.0 6921.0 47899562.6 61631.8 3424.0 51741.7
35621.0 -305.0 93022.7 61936.8 3259.8 51436.7
35958.9 7976.1 63617479.7 69912.9 3495.6 59412.8
36296.9 2943.1 8661893.4 72856.0 3469.3 62355.9
36634.8 8145.2 66343669.2 81001.1 3681.9 70501.0
36972.8 2105.2 4431930.8 83106.4 3613.3 72606.3
37310.7 -2127.7 4527243.5 85234.1 3551.4 70478.5
37648.7 4592.3 21089410.5 89826.4 3593.1 75070.9
37986.6 7159.4 51256631.1 96985.8 3730.2 82230.2
38324.6 3565.4 12712266.0 100551.2 3724.1 85795.7
38662.5 4640.5 21534048.3 105191.7 3756.8 90436.1
39000.5 1023.5 1047618.1 106215.2 3662.6 91459.7
39338.4 -2066.4 4270071.0 108281.6 3609.4 89393.3
39676.4 -6151.4 37839256.8 114433.0 3691.4 83241.9
40014.3 4609.7 21249247.8 119042.7 3720.1 87851.6
40352.3 2082.7 4337820.4 121125.4 3670.5 89934.3
40690.2 4376.8 19156345.9 125502.2 3691.2 94311.1
41028.2 1765.8 3118223.2 127268.1 3636.2 96077.0
41366.1 4895.9 23969856.2 132164.0 3671.2 100972.9
41704.0 5154.0 26563250.2 137317.9 3711.3 106126.8
42042.0 6701.0 44903503.4 144018.9 3790.0 112827.8
42379.9 310.1 96137.5 144329.0 3700.7 113137.9
42717.9 3623.1 13126950.0 147952.1 3698.8 116761.0
43055.8 -440.8 194334.5 148392.9 3619.3 116320.2
43393.8 2826.2 7987513.7 151219.2 3600.5 119146.4
43731.7 -1256.7 1579365.8 152475.9 3546.0 117889.7
44069.7 1880.3 3535620.7 154356.2 3508.1 119770.0
44407.6 1856.4 3446137.3 156212.6 3471.4 121626.4
44745.6 0.0 0.0 156212.6 3395.9 121626.4
45083.5 0.0 0.0 156212.6 3323.7 121626.4
45421.5 0.0 0.0 156212.6 3254.4 121626.4
Señal de Rastreo IETI AÑO TRIMESTRE PPM=2
1 29200
2 31300
2007
3 28900
1.0 3800.0 1 4 33600
2.0 733.3 2 1 32000
3.0 3700.0 3 2 35200
2008
1.3 4200.0 4 3 29400
2.4 3600.0 5 4 35800
3.1 1533.3 6 1 35000
4.2 3258.0 7 2 36658
2009
2.0 5681.3 8 3 30138
3.0 3336.0 9 4 37268
3.9 2807.0 10 1 37495
5.3 5425.0 11 2 40392
2010
4.1 3875.0 12 3 34510
5.4 5087.3 13 4 42553
6.5 4133.3 14 1 43285
7.3 2088.0 15 2 42204
2011
4.9 7364.7 16 3 35316
5.8 3666.7 17 4 43935
5.7 1245.0 18 1 39240
7.0 5283.0 19 2 44780
2012
6.1 3573.7 20 3 39078
4.4 5849.7 21 4 35183
5.1 2560.7 22 1 42241
6.6 6312.0 23 2 45146
2013
7.1 1033.3 24 3 41890
7.4 210.7 25 4 43303
6.5 3422.3 26 1 40024
5.2 4467.0 27 2 37272
2014
3.3 6674.7 28 3 33525
5.1 7683.7 29 4 44624
6.1 3961.3 30 1 42435
7.3 4872.3 31 2 45067
2015
7.2 1248.0 32 3 42794
8.0 2830.0 33 4 46262
8.6 2150.3 34 1 46858
9.6 3438.3 35 2 48743
2016
8.3 4597.7 36 3 42690
8.6 244.0 37 4 46341
7.7 3309.7 38 1 42615
8.4 2338.0 39 2 46220
2017
7.8 2583.7 40 3 42475
 2017
8.5 2180.0 41 4 45950
9.0 1382.3 42 1 46264
9.2 0.0 43 2 46107.0
2018
9.4 0.0 44 3 46185.5
9.6 0.0 45 4 46146.3

Señal de Rastreo IETI

0
1.0 1807.0 1
-2.0 907.0 2
3.0 3503.0 3
4.0 1566.0 4
5.0 4445.1 5
4.2 1707.9 6
5.5 4397.1 7
6.6 3238.1 8
7.7 4545.1 9
6.9 2342.5 10
8.1 4485.1 11
9.2 4338.5 12
10.5 6859.5 13
11.3 572.6 14
12.6 8269.5 15
13.8 8575.0 16
14.9 7060.2 17
15.7 250.8 18
16.8 8014.0 19
17.8 2878.7 20
18.9 8025.3 21
19.8 1874.5 22
19.5 2412.3 23
20.6 4292.9 24
21.7 6774.5 25
22.6 3066.0 26
23.6 4059.2 27
24.5 346.1 28
24.0 2807.1 29
21.6 6927.8 30
22.6 3835.0 31
 23.4 1198.7 32
24.4 3405.4 33
25.2 680.7 34
26.2 3719.8 35
27.2 3852.2 36
28.3 5267.6 37
28.4 1273.8 38
29.3 1949.3 39
29.0 2241.1 40
29.8 936.8 41
28.9 3271.4 42
29.5 222.2 43
30.0 368.7 44
30.7 0.0 45
31.4 0.0 46
32.1 0.0 47
18.4

Señal de Rastreo IETI

-1.0 337.9 1
2.0 1424.1 2
-3.0 1313.8 3
4.0 3048.2 4
5.0 1110.3 5
6.0 3972.3 6
4.1 2165.6 7
5.6 3896.4 8
6.7 2758.5 9
7.9 4078.5 10
6.4 2779.4 11
7.7 4012.6 12
8.9 3901.7 13
10.4 6460.7 14
11.1 240.8 15
12.6 7945.8 16
13.9 8339.9 17
15.1 6921.0 18
15.8 305.0 19
17.0 7976.1 20
18.0 2943.1 21
19.1 8145.2 22
20.1 2105.2 23
19.8 2127.7 24
20.9 4592.3 25
22.0 7159.4 26
23.0 3565.4 27
24.1 4640.5 28
25.0 1023.5 29
24.8 2066.4 30
22.6 6151.4 31
23.6 4609.7 32
24.5 2082.7 33
25.5 4376.8 34
26.4 1765.8 35
27.5 4895.9 36
28.6 5154.0 37
29.8 6701.0 38
30.6 310.1 39
31.6 3623.1 40
32.1 440.8 41
33.1 2826.2 42
33.2 1256.7 43
34.1 1880.3 44
35.0 1856.4 45
35.8 0.0 46
36.6 0.0 47
37.4 0.0 48
19.2

pendiente(m) 337.947167325
Inter (b) 31897.7484848
 Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E

30250.0 59150.0 3498722500.0 59150.0 59150.0 59150.0

30100.0 63700.0 4057690000.0 63700.0 31850.0 63700.0
31250.0 750.0 562500.0 750.0 250.0 750.0
32800.0 2400.0 5760000.0 2400.0 600.0 2400.0
33600.0 -4200.0 17640000.0 4200.0 840.0 -4200.0
32300.0 3500.0 12250000.0 3500.0 583.3 3500.0
32600.0 2400.0 5760000.0 2400.0 342.9 2400.0
35400.0 1258.0 1582564.0 1258.0 157.3 1258.0
35829.0 -5691.0 32387481.0 5691.0 632.3 -5691.0
33398.0 3870.0 14976900.0 3870.0 387.0 3870.0
33703.0 3792.0 14379264.0 3792.0 344.7 3792.0
37381.5 3010.5 9063110.3 3010.5 250.9 3010.5
38943.5 -4433.5 19655922.3 4433.5 341.0 -4433.5
37451.0 5102.0 26030404.0 5102.0 364.4 5102.0
38531.5 4753.5 22595762.3 4753.5 316.9 4753.5
42919.0 -715.0 511225.0 715.0 44.7 -715.0
42744.5 -7428.5 55182612.3 7428.5 437.0 -7428.5
38760.0 5175.0 26780625.0 5175.0 287.5 5175.0
39625.5 -385.5 148610.3 385.5 20.3 -385.5
41587.5 3192.5 10192056.3 3192.5 159.6 3192.5
42010.0 -2932.0 8596624.0 2932.0 139.6 -2932.0
41929.0 -6746.0 45508516.0 6746.0 306.6 -6746.0
37130.5 5110.5 26117210.3 5110.5 222.2 5110.5
38712.0 6434.0 41396356.0 6434.0 268.1 6434.0
43693.5 -1803.5 3252612.3 1803.5 72.1 -1803.5
43518.0 -215.0 46225.0 215.0 8.3 -215.0
42596.5 -2572.5 6617756.3 2572.5 95.3 -2572.5
41663.5 -4391.5 19285272.3 4391.5 156.8 -4391.5
38648.0 -5123.0 26245129.0 5123.0 176.7 -5123.0
35398.5 9225.5 85109850.3 9225.5 307.5 9225.5
39074.5 3360.5 11292960.3 3360.5 108.4 3360.5
43529.5 1537.5 2363906.3 1537.5 48.0 1537.5
43751.0 -957.0 915849.0 957.0 29.0 -957.0
43930.5 2331.5 5435892.3 2331.5 68.6 2331.5
44528.0 2330.0 5428900.0 2330.0 66.6 2330.0
46560.0 2183.0 4765489.0 2183.0 60.6 2183.0
47800.5 -5110.5 26117210.3 5110.5 138.1 -5110.5
45716.5 624.5 390000.3 624.5 16.4 624.5
44515.5 -1900.5 3611900.3 1900.5 48.7 -1900.5
44478.0 1742.0 3034564.0 1742.0 43.6 1742.0
44417.5 -1942.5 3773306.3 1942.5 47.4 -1942.5
44347.5 1602.5 2568006.3 1602.5 38.2 1602.5
44212.5 2051.5 4208652.3 2051.5 47.7 2051.5
46107.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
46185.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
46146.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Señal de Rastreo IETI AÑO TRIMESTRE PPM=1 Ft
1 29200
2 31300 29200.0
2007
1.0 59150.0 1 3 28900 31300.0
2.0 63700.0 2 4 33600 28900.0
3.0 750.0 3 1 32000 33600.0
4.0 2400.0 4 2 35200 32000.0
2008
-5.0 4200.0 5 3 29400 35200.0
6.0 3500.0 6 4 35800 29400.0
7.0 2400.0 7 1 35000 35800.0
8.0 1258.0 8 2 36658 35000.0
2009
-9.0 5691.0 9 3 30138 36658.0
10.0 3870.0 10 4 37268 30138.0
11.0 3792.0 11 1 37495 37268.0
12.0 3010.5 12 2 40392 37495.0
2010
-13.0 4433.5 13 3 34510 40392.0
14.0 5102.0 14 4 42553 34510.0
15.0 4753.5 15 1 43285 42553.0
-16.0 715.0 16 2 42204 43285.0
2011
-17.0 7428.5 17 3 35316 42204.0
18.0 5175.0 18 4 43935 35316.0
-19.0 385.5 19 1 39240 43935.0
20.0 3192.5 20 2 44780 39240.0
2012
-21.0 2932.0 21 3 39078 44780.0
-22.0 6746.0 22 4 35183 39078.0
23.0 5110.5 23 1 42241 35183.0
24.0 6434.0 24 2 45146 42241.0
2013
-25.0 1803.5 25 3 41890 45146.0
-26.0 215.0 26 4 43303 41890.0
-27.0 2572.5 27 1 40024 43303.0
-28.0 4391.5 28 2 37272 40024.0
2014
-29.0 5123.0 29 3 33525 37272.0
30.0 9225.5 30 4 44624 33525.0
31.0 3360.5 31 1 42435 44624.0
32.0 1537.5 32 2 45067 42435.0
2015
-33.0 957.0 33 3 42794 45067.0
34.0 2331.5 34 4 46262 42794.0
35.0 2330.0 35 1 46858 46262.0
36.0 2183.0 36 2 48743 46858.0
2016
-37.0 5110.5 37 3 42690 48743.0
38.0 624.5 38 4 46341 42690.0
-39.0 1900.5 39 1 42615 46341.0
40.0 1742.0 40 2 46220 42615.0
2017
-41.0 1942.5 41 3 42475 46220.0
 2017
42.0 1602.5 42 4 45950 42475.0
43.0 2051.5 43 1 46264 45950.0
#DIV/0! 0.0 44 2 46264.0 46264.0
2018
#DIV/0! 0.0 45 3 46264.0 46264.0
#DIV/0! 0.0 46 4 46264.0 46264.0
 Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria ESeñal de Rastreo IETI

2100.0 4410000.0 2100.0 2100.0 2100.0 1.0 2100.0

-2400.0 5760000.0 2400.0 1200.0 -2400.0 -2.0 2400.0
4700.0 22090000.0 4700.0 1566.7 4700.0 3.0 4700.0
-1600.0 2560000.0 1600.0 400.0 -1600.0 -4.0 1600.0
3200.0 10240000.0 3200.0 640.0 3200.0 5.0 3200.0
-5800.0 33640000.0 5800.0 966.7 -5800.0 -6.0 5800.0
6400.0 40960000.0 6400.0 914.3 6400.0 7.0 6400.0
-800.0 640000.0 800.0 100.0 -800.0 -8.0 800.0
1658.0 2748964.0 1658.0 184.2 1658.0 9.0 1658.0
-6520.0 42510400.0 6520.0 652.0 -6520.0 -10.0 6520.0
7130.0 50836900.0 7130.0 648.2 7130.0 11.0 7130.0
227.0 51529.0 227.0 18.9 227.0 12.0 227.0
2897.0 8392609.0 2897.0 222.8 2897.0 13.0 2897.0
-5882.0 34597924.0 5882.0 420.1 -5882.0 -14.0 5882.0
8043.0 64689849.0 8043.0 536.2 8043.0 15.0 8043.0
732.0 535824.0 732.0 45.8 732.0 16.0 732.0
-1081.0 1168561.0 1081.0 63.6 -1081.0 -17.0 1081.0
-6888.0 47444544.0 6888.0 382.7 -6888.0 -18.0 6888.0
8619.0 74287161.0 8619.0 453.6 8619.0 19.0 8619.0
-4695.0 22043025.0 4695.0 234.8 -4695.0 -20.0 4695.0
5540.0 30691600.0 5540.0 263.8 5540.0 21.0 5540.0
-5702.0 32512804.0 5702.0 259.2 -5702.0 -22.0 5702.0
-3895.0 15171025.0 3895.0 169.3 -3895.0 -23.0 3895.0
7058.0 49815364.0 7058.0 294.1 7058.0 24.0 7058.0
2905.0 8439025.0 2905.0 116.2 2905.0 25.0 2905.0
-3256.0 10601536.0 3256.0 125.2 -3256.0 -26.0 3256.0
1413.0 1996569.0 1413.0 52.3 1413.0 27.0 1413.0
-3279.0 10751841.0 3279.0 117.1 -3279.0 -28.0 3279.0
-2752.0 7573504.0 2752.0 94.9 -2752.0 -29.0 2752.0
-3747.0 14040009.0 3747.0 124.9 -3747.0 -30.0 3747.0
11099.0 123187801.0 11099.0 358.0 11099.0 31.0 11099.0
-2189.0 4791721.0 2189.0 68.4 -2189.0 -32.0 2189.0
2632.0 6927424.0 2632.0 79.8 2632.0 33.0 2632.0
-2273.0 5166529.0 2273.0 66.9 -2273.0 -34.0 2273.0
3468.0 12027024.0 3468.0 99.1 3468.0 35.0 3468.0
596.0 355216.0 596.0 16.6 596.0 36.0 596.0
1885.0 3553225.0 1885.0 50.9 1885.0 37.0 1885.0
-6053.0 36638809.0 6053.0 159.3 -6053.0 -38.0 6053.0
3651.0 13329801.0 3651.0 93.6 3651.0 39.0 3651.0
-3726.0 13883076.0 3726.0 93.2 -3726.0 -40.0 3726.0
3605.0 12996025.0 3605.0 87.9 3605.0 41.0 3605.0
-3745.0 14025025.0 3745.0 89.2 -3745.0 -42.0 3745.0
3475.0 12075625.0 3475.0 80.8 3475.0 43.0 3475.0
314.0 98596.0 314.0 7.1 314.0 44.0 314.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2.4
 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
MAD PROMEDIOS MOVILES MAD SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL

2100.0 1807.0
1200.0 453.5
1566.7 1167.7
400.0 1267.3
640.0 1902.8
966.7 1870.3
914.3 2231.3
100.0 2357.2
184.2 2600.3
652.0 2574.5
648.2 2748.2
18.9 2880.7
222.8 3186.8
420.1 3000.0
536.2 3351.3
45.8 3677.8
63.6 3876.8
382.7 3675.3
453.6 3903.7
234.8 3852.4
263.8 4051.1
259.2 3952.2
169.3 3885.3
294.1 3902.2
116.2 4017.1
125.2 3980.5
52.3 3983.5
117.1 3853.6
94.9 3817.5
124.9 3921.1
358.0 3918.4
68.4 3833.4
79.8 3820.4
66.9 3728.1
99.1 3727.8
16.6 3731.3
50.9 3772.8
159.3 3707.0
93.6 3662.0
93.2 3626.5
87.9 3560.8
 89.2 3554.0
80.8 3476.5
7.1 3405.8
0.0 3330.2
0.0 3257.8
0.0 3188.4

E PROMEDIOS MOVILES E SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL

2100 0
-2400.0 1807.0
4700.0 -907.0
-1600.0 3503.0
3200.0 1566.0
-5800.0 4445.1
6400.0 -1707.9
-800.0 4397.1
1658.0 3238.1
-6520.0 4545.1
7130.0 -2342.5
227.0 4485.1
2897.0 4338.5
-5882.0 6859.5
8043.0 572.6
732.0 8269.5
-1081.0 8575.0
-6888.0 7060.2
8619.0 -250.8
-4695.0 8014.0
5540.0 2878.7
-5702.0 8025.3
-3895.0 1874.5
7058.0 -2412.3
2905.0 4292.9
-3256.0 6774.5
1413.0 3066.0
-3279.0 4059.2
-2752.0 346.1
15000 -3747.0 -2807.1
11099.0 -6927.8
10000
-2189.0 3835.0

5000
15000

10000
2632.0 1198.7
-2273.0 3405.4
5000
3468.0 680.7
596.0 3719.8
0
1 2 3 1885.0
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 3852.2 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
-6053.0 5267.6
-5000 3651.0 -1273.8
-3726.0 1949.3
-10000 3605.0 -2241.1
-3745.0 936.8
E PROMEDIOS MOVILES Linear (E PROMEDIOS
3475.0 -3271.4
Linear (E SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL) E REGRESION LINEAL
314.0 -222.2
0.0 -368.7
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
MAD REGRESION LINEAL
337.9
712.1
437.9
762.1
831.7
1355.1
1470.9
1774.1
1883.5
2103.0
2164.5
2318.5
2440.3
2727.5
2561.7
2898.2
3218.3
3424.0
3259.8
3495.6
3469.3
3681.9
3613.3
3551.4
3593.1
3730.2
3724.1
3756.8 4500
3662.6 4000
3609.4 3500
3000
3691.4
2500
3720.1
2000
3670.5
1500
3691.2
1000
3636.2
500
3671.2 0
3711.3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2
3790.0 MAD PROMEDIOS MOVILES MAD SUAVIZACION
3700.7
3698.8
3619.3
3600.5
 3546.0
3508.1
3471.4
3395.9
3323.7
3254.4

E REGRESION LINEAL
-337.9
1424.1
-1313.8
3048.2
1110.3
3972.3
-2165.6
3896.4
2758.5
4078.5
-2779.4
4012.6
3901.7
6460.7
240.8
7945.8
8339.9
6921.0
-305.0
7976.1
2943.1
8145.2
2105.2
-2127.7
4592.3
7159.4
3565.4
4640.5
1023.5
-2066.4
-6151.4
4609.7
 2082.7
4376.8
1765.8
4895.9
19 20 21 22 23 24 255154.026 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
6701.0
310.1
3623.1
-440.8
2826.2
Linear (E PROMEDIOS MOVILES) E SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL
-1256.7
E REGRESION LINEAL Linear (E REGRESION LINEAL)
1880.3
1856.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

MAD SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL MAD REGRESION LINEAL

CALCULE EL PRONOSTICO PARA LOS TRES TRIMESTRES FALTANTES DEL AÑO 2018

AÑO TRIMESTRE 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2007 1 29200 32000 35000 37495 43285 39240
2 31300 35200 36658 40392 42204 44780
3 28900 29400 30138 34510 35316 39078
4 33600 35800 37268 42553 43935 35183

Suma 125007 134408 141073 156960 166751 160293

PPM=3 Ft Et E2 IETI
2007 125007
2008 134408
2009 141073
2010 156960 133496 23464 550559296 23464
2011 166751 144147 22604 510940816 22604
2012 160293 154928 5365 28783225 5365
2013 174593 161334.667 13258.3333 175783403 13258.3333
2014 157459 167212.333 -9753.33333 95127511.1 9753.33333
2015 178573 164115 14458 209033764 14458
2016 186648 170208.333 16439.6667 270262640 16439.6667
2017 179277 174226.667 5050.33333 25505866.8 5050.33333
2018 181499.333
 50000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

42241 40024 42435 46858 42615 46264 45000
45146 37272 45067 48743 46220
41890 33525 42794 42690 42475
40000
43303 44624 46262 46341 45950

174593 157459 178573 186648 179277 35000

30000

25000
50000 GM_Rev

1
Linea
45000
4

40000

35000

30000

25000
1 2 3 4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
50000

45000

40000

35000

30000

25000
GM_Rev

1 Linear (1) 2
Linear (2) 3 Linear (3)
4 Linear (4) Linear (4)
 PROMEDIOS MOVILES

semana PPM=3 Ft Et E2
1 1796
2 5781
3 7469
4 11411 5015.3 6395.7 40904552.1
5 10723 8220.3 2502.7 6263340.4
6 11488 9867.7 1620.3 2625480.1
7 17397 11207.3 6189.7 38311973.4
8 19979 13202.7 6776.3 45918693.4
9 17355 16288.0 1067.0 1138489.0
10 19649 18243.7 1405.3 1974961.8
11 15156 18994.3 -3838.3 14732802.8
12 10917 17386.7 -6469.7 41856586.8
13 9992 15240.7 -5248.7 27548501.8
14 14525 12021.7 2503.3 6266677.8
15 11811.3 11811.3 0.0 0.0
16 12109.4 12109.4 0.0 0.0
17 12815.3 12815.3 0.0 0.0
18 12245.3 12245.3 0.0 0.0
19 12390.0 12390.0 0.0 0.0
20 12483.5 12483.5 0.0 0.0

SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL

alfa: 0.2

semana real Ft Et E2
1 1796 1796 0 0
2 5781 2156.0 3625 13140625.0
3 7469 3313.0 4156 17272336.0
4 11411 4807.6 6603.4 43604891.6
5 10723 7090.6 3632.4 13194329.8
6 11488 9236.0 2252.0 5071504.0
7 17397 11534.4 5862.6 34370078.8
8 19979 15014.6 4964.4 24645267.4
9 17355 19011.2 -1656.2 2742998.4
10 19649 22483.0 -2834.0 8031556.0
11 15156 26413.6 -11257.6 126733557.8
12 10917 29445.6 -18528.6 343309018.0
13 9992 31629.8 -21637.8 468194388.8
 14 14525 33629.0 -19104.0 364962816.0
15 36534.8 36534.8 0.0 0.0
16 43842.6 43842.6 0.0 0.0
17 52611.9 52611.9 0.0 0.0
18 63135.0 63135.0 0.0 0.0
19 75762.9 75762.9 0.0 0.0
20 90916.2 90916.2 0.0 0.0

REGRESION LINEAL

Valor x semana Ft Et E2
1 1796 2529.8 -733.8 538394.7
2 5781 3263.5 2517.5 6337767.5
3 7469 3997.3 3471.7 12052967.9
4 11411 4731.0 6680.0 44622194.5
5 10723 5464.8 5258.2 27648990.8
6 11488 6198.5 5289.5 27978566.1
7 17397 6932.3 10464.7 109510429.1
8 19979 7666.0 12313.0 151609211.3
9 17355 8399.8 8955.2 80195882.6
10 19649 9133.5 10515.5 110574931.4
11 15156 9867.3 5288.7 27970429.1
12 10917 10601.0 316.0 99826.8
13 9992 11334.8 -1342.8 1803111.8
14 14525 12068.6 2456.4 6034127.7
15 12802.3 -12802.3 163899082.2
16 13536.1 -13536.1 183224962.0
17 14269.8 -14269.8 203627631.1
18 15003.6 -15003.6 225107089.7
19 15737.3 -15737.3 247663337.6
20 16471.1 -16471.1 271296375.0
Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo IETI

6395.7 6395.7 6395.7 1.0 6395.7 1

8898.3 4449.2 8898.3 2.0 2502.7 2
10518.7 3506.2 10518.7 3.0 1620.3 3
16708.3 4177.1 16708.3 4.0 6189.7 4
23484.7 4696.9 23484.7 5.0 6776.3 5
24551.7 4091.9 24551.7 6.0 1067.0 6
25957.0 3708.1 25957.0 7.0 1405.3 7
29795.3 3724.4 22118.7 5.9 3838.3 8
36265.0 4029.4 15649.0 3.9 6469.7 9
41513.7 4151.4 10400.3 2.5 5248.7 10
44017.0 4001.5 12903.7 3.2 2503.3 11
44017.0 3668.1 12903.7 3.5 0.0 12
44017.0 3385.9 12903.7 3.8 0.0 13
44017.0 3144.1 12903.7 4.1 0.0 14
44017.0 2934.5 12903.7 4.4 0.0 15
44017.0 2751.1 12903.7 4.7 0.0 16
44017.0 2589.2 12903.7 5.0 0.0 17
4.1

Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo IETI

0
3625.0 3625.0 3625.0 1.0 3625.0 1
4156.0 2078.0 4156.0 2.0 4156.0 2
6603.4 2201.1 6603.4 3.0 6603.4 3
10235.8 2559.0 10235.8 4.0 3632.4 4
12487.8 2497.6 12487.8 5.0 2252.0 5
18350.4 3058.4 18350.4 6.0 5862.6 6
23314.8 3330.7 23314.8 7.0 4964.4 7
24971.0 3121.4 21658.6 6.9 1656.2 8
27805.0 3089.4 18824.6 6.1 2834.0 9
39062.6 3906.3 7567.0 1.9 11257.6 10
57591.2 5235.6 -10961.6 -2.1 18528.6 11
79229.0 6602.4 -32599.4 -4.9 21637.8 12
 98333.0 7564.1 -51703.4 -6.8 19104.0 13
98333.0 7023.8 -51703.4 -7.4 0.0 14
98333.0 6555.5 -51703.4 -7.9 0.0 15
98333.0 6145.8 -51703.4 -8.4 0.0 16
98333.0 5784.3 -51703.4 -8.9 0.0 17
98333.0 5462.9 -51703.4 -9.5 0.0 18
98333.0 5175.4 -51703.4 -10.0 0.0 19
-1.2

Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo IETI

733.8 733.8 -733.8 -1.0 733.8 1
2517.5 1258.7 2517.5 2.0 2517.5 2
3471.7 1157.2 3471.7 3.0 3471.7 3
6680.0 1670.0 6680.0 4.0 6680.0 4
11938.2 2387.6 11938.2 5.0 5258.2 5
17227.7 2871.3 17227.7 6.0 5289.5 6
27692.4 3956.1 27692.4 7.0 10464.7 7
40005.4 5000.7 40005.4 8.0 12313.0 8
48960.6 5440.1 48960.6 9.0 8955.2 9
59476.1 5947.6 59476.1 10.0 10515.5 10
64764.8 5887.7 64764.8 11.0 5288.7 11
65080.7 5423.4 65080.7 12.0 316.0 12
66423.5 5109.5 63737.9 12.5 1342.8 13
68880.0 4920.0 66194.4 13.5 2456.4 14
81682.3 5445.5 53392.1 9.8 12802.3 15
95218.3 5951.1 39856.0 6.7 13536.1 16
109488.2 6440.5 25586.2 4.0 14269.8 17
124491.7 6916.2 10582.6 1.5 15003.6 18
140229.0 7380.5 -5154.7 -0.7 15737.3 19
156700.1 7835.0 -21625.8 -2.8 16471.1 20
6.0

pendiente(m) 733.753846154
Inter (b) 6899.56043956
SEMANA PPM=2 Ft Et E2
1 1796
2 5781
3 7469 3788.5 11257.5 126731306.3
4 11411 6625.0 18036.0 325297296.0
5 10723 9440.0 1283.0 1646089.0
6 11488 11067.0 421.0 177241.0
7 17397 11105.5 6291.5 39582972.3
8 19979 14442.5 5536.5 30652832.3
9 17355 18688.0 -1333.0 1776889.0
10 19649 18667.0 982.0 964324.0
11 15156 18502.0 -3346.0 11195716.0
12 10917 17402.5 -6485.5 42061710.3
13 9992 13036.5 -3044.5 9268980.3
14 14525 10454.5 4070.5 16568970.3
15 12258.5 12258.5 0.0 0.0
16 13391.8 13391.8 0.0 0.0
17 12825.1 12825.1 0.0 0.0
18 13108.4 13108.4 0.0 0.0
19 12966.8 12966.8 0.0 0.0
20 13037.6 13037.6 0.0 0.0
 PRONOSTICO
60000

50000

40000
f(x) = 337.947167325428 x + 31897.748484

30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

Column E Linear (Column E)

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

Column E Linear (Column E)

Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo IETI

11257.5 11257.5 11257.5 1.0 11257.5 1

18036.0 9018.0 18036.0 2.0 18036.0 2
1283.0 427.7 1283.0 3.0 1283.0 3
421.0 105.3 421.0 4.0 421.0 4
6291.5 1258.3 6291.5 5.0 6291.5 5
5536.5 922.8 5536.5 6.0 5536.5 6
1333.0 190.4 -1333.0 -7.0 1333.0 7
982.0 122.8 982.0 8.0 982.0 8
3346.0 371.8 -3346.0 -9.0 3346.0 9
6485.5 648.6 -6485.5 -10.0 6485.5 10
3044.5 276.8 -3044.5 -11.0 3044.5 11
4070.5 339.2 4070.5 12.0 4070.5 12
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18
0.3
 PRONOSTICO

67325428 x + 31897.7484848485

2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1

Column E Linear (Column E)

2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1

Column E Linear (Column E)

SEMANA PPM=1 Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI
1 1796
2 5781 1796.0 3985.0 15880225.0 3985.0
3 7469 5781.0 1688.0 2849344.0 1688.0
4 11411 7469.0 3942.0 15539364.0 3942.0
5 10723 11411.0 -688.0 473344.0 688.0
6 11488 10723.0 765.0 585225.0 765.0
7 17397 11488.0 5909.0 34916281.0 5909.0
8 19979 17397.0 2582.0 6666724.0 2582.0
9 17355 19979.0 -2624.0 6885376.0 2624.0
10 19649 17355.0 2294.0 5262436.0 2294.0
11 15156 19649.0 -4493.0 20187049.0 4493.0
12 10917 15156.0 -4239.0 17969121.0 4239.0
13 9992 10917.0 -925.0 855625.0 925.0
14 14525 9992.0 4533.0 20548089.0 4533.0
15 14525.0 14525.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 14525.0 14525.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 14525.0 14525.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 14525.0 14525.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 14525.0 14525.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 14525.0 14525.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo IETI

3985.0 3985.0 1.0 3985.0 1

844.0 1688.0 2.0 1688.0 2
1314.0 3942.0 3.0 3942.0 3
172.0 -688.0 -4.0 688.0 4
153.0 765.0 5.0 765.0 5
984.8 5909.0 6.0 5909.0 6
368.9 2582.0 7.0 2582.0 7
328.0 -2624.0 -8.0 2624.0 8
254.9 2294.0 9.0 2294.0 9
449.3 -4493.0 -10.0 4493.0 10
385.4 -4239.0 -11.0 4239.0 11
77.1 -925.0 -12.0 925.0 12
348.7 4533.0 13.0 4533.0 13
0.0 0.0 0.0 14
0.0 0.0 0.0 15
0.0 0.0 0.0 16
0.0 0.0 0.0 17
0.0 0.0 0.0 18
0.0 0.0 0.0 19
0.1
 PROMEDIOS MÓVILES

semana 1 PPM=1 Ft Et
2013 1 2834
2014 2 2921 2833.6 87.6
2015 3 3075 2921.2 153.7
2016 4 3403 3075.0 328.1
2017 5 6990 3403.0 3587.0
2018 6 6990.0 6990.0 0.0

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL

alfa: 0.1

semana 1 real Ft Et
2013 1 2834 2833.566425 0
2014 2 2921 3117.8 -196.6205675
2015 3 3075 3410.8 -335.8933175
2016 4 3403 3719.2 -316.2
2017 5 6990 4060.4 2929.6
2018 6 4760 4760.3 0.0

REGRESIÓN LINEAL

Valor x semana Ft Et
2013 1 2834 2086 748
2014 2 2921 2965 -44
2015 3 3075 3845 -770
2016 4 3403 4724 -1321
2017 5 6990 5603 1387
2018 6 6483 -6483

RESULTADOS PRONÓSTICOS

RESULTADO PROMEDIOS SUAVIZACIÓN

SEMANA MÓVILES EXPONENCIAL
1 6990.0 4760.3
2 5033.0 6021.0
3 3626.0 4241.2
4 3097.0 4478.9
5 2593.0 2783.8
6 2327.0 3773.3

RESULTADOS PRONÓSTICOS

RESULTADO REGRESIÓN LINEAL

SEMANA población
1 6482.9 48921
2 5267.1 48921
3 3787.2 48921
4 3385.7 48921
5 2651.4 48921
6 2848.9 48921

PRONOSTICO FINAL

RESULTADO PRONOSTICO FINAL

SEMANA POBLACION
1 8227.6 48921
2 5650.2 48921
3 3797.1 48921
4 4078.8 48921
5 3415.1 48921
6 3064.7 48921
OS MÓVILES

E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo

7680.1 87.6 87.6 87.6 1.0

23638.3 153.7 76.9 153.7 2.0
107616.8 328.1 109.4 328.1 3.0
12866569.0 3587.0 896.8 3587.0 4.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ###

E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo

0
38659.6 196.6 196.6 -196.6 -1.0
112824.3 335.9 167.9 -335.9 -2.0
100006.7 316.2 105.4 -316.2 -3.0
8582331.7 3245.8 811.5 2613.3 3.2
0.0 3245.8 649.2 2613.3 4.0
0.2

E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo

559438 748 748 748 1.0
 1925 44 22 -44 -2.0
592275 770 257 -770 -3.0
1745068 1321 330 -1321 -4.0
1922447 2708 542 66 0.1
42028552 9190 1532 -6417 -4.2
-2.0

pendiente(m)
Inter (b)

STICOS

REGRESIÓN LINEAL

6482.9
5267.1
3787.2
3385.7
2651.4
2848.9

STICOS
REDUCCIÓN DE RATIO 2%

RATIO 2017 Ratio 2017vs 2018 diferencia en población actual 1

13% 19% 6% 1745 2
11% 14% 3% 383 3
8% 10% 2% 10 4
7% 8% 1% 693 5
5% 7% 2% 764 6
6% 6% 0% 216 7

RATIO
17%
12%
8%
8%
7%
6%
 IETI Semana 2 PPM=1 Ft Et
1 3846
87.6 1 2 3965 3846.4 119.0
153.7 2 3 4174 3965.4 208.7
328.1 3 4 4682 4174.1 507.9
3587.0 4 5 5033 4682.0 351.0
0.0 5 6 5033 5033.0 0.0

IETI Semana 2 real Ft Et

0 1 3846 3846 0
196.6 1 2 3965 4232.0 -266.581465
335.9 2 3 4174 4629.4 -455.315965
316.2 3 4 4682 5047.7 -365.7
2929.6 4 5 5033 5516.8 -483.8
0.0 5 6 6021.0 6021.0 0.0

IETI Valor x semana Ft Et

748.0 1 1 3846 3722.2 124.2
 43.9 2 2 3965 4031.2 -65.8
769.6 3 3 4174 4340.2 -166.1
1321.0 4 4 4682 4649.2 32.8
1386.5 5 5 5033 4958.1 74.9
6482.9 6 6 5267.1 -5267.1

879.466465
1206.14439

REAL POBLACI

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014

2834 2921 3075 3403 6990 48921 46461
3846 3965 4174 4682 5033 48921 46461
2701 2784 2931 3318 3626 48921 46461
2910 3000 3158 3481 3097 48921 46461
1757 1811 1906 2159 2593 48921 46461
2439 2515 2647 3370 2327 48921 46461
 E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo IETI

14151.9 119.0 #DIV/0! 119.0 #DIV/0! 119.0

43557.8 208.7 208.7 208.7 1.0 208.7
257962.4 507.9 254.0 507.9 2.0 507.9
123201.0 351.0 117.0 351.0 3.0 351.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0

E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo IETI

0 0
71065.7 266.6 266.6 -266.6 -1.0 266.6
207312.6 455.3 227.7 -455.3 -2.0 455.3
133755.5 365.7 121.9 -365.7 -3.0 365.7
234087.6 849.6 212.4 -849.6 -4.0 483.8
0.0 849.6 169.9 -849.6 -5.0 0.0
-3.0

E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E Señal de Rastreo IETI

15424.5 124.2 124.2 124.2 1.0 124.2
 4331.8 65.8 32.9 -65.8 -2.0 65.8
27584.4 166.1 55.4 -166.1 -3.0 166.1
1078.5 32.8 8.2 32.8 4.0 32.8
5605.0 107.7 21.5 107.7 5.0 74.9
27742418.7 5374.8 895.8 -5159.4 -5.8 5267.1
-0.1

pendiente(m) 308.9739
Inter (b) 3413.264

POBLACIÓN RATIO

2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015

43921 41256 37145 6% 6% 7%
43921 41256 37145 8% 9% 10%
43921 41256 37145 6% 6% 7%
43921 41256 37145 6% 6% 7%
43921 41256 37145 4% 4% 4%
43921 41256 37145 5% 5% 6%
 Semana 3 PPM=1 Ft Et E2
1 2701
2 2784 2700.7 83.5 6976.8
1 3 2931 2784.2 146.5 21473.5
2 4 3318 2930.8 387.2 149947.1
3 5 3626 3318.0 308.0 94864.0
4 6 3626.0 3626.0 0.0 0.0

Semana 3 real Ft Et E2
1 2701 2701 0 0
1 2 2784 2971.7 -187.443511 35135.1
2 3 2931 3251.0 -320.228161 102546.1
3 4 3318 3545.0 -227.0 51517.7
4 5 3626 3877.7 -251.7 63340.4
5 6 4241.2 4241.2 0.0 0.0

Valor x semana Ft Et E2
1 1 2701 2595.1 105.6 11158.8
 2 2 2784 2833.5 -49.3 2427.9
3 3 2931 3071.9 -141.2 19929.3
4 4 3318 3310.4 7.6 58.1
5 5 3626 3548.8 77.2 5957.8
6 6 3787.2 -3787.2 14343255.2

ATIO

2016 2017 Ratio 2017vs 2018

8% 19% 6%
11% 14% 3%
8% 10% 2%
8% 8% 1%
5% 7% 2%
8% 6% 0%
Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria ESeñal de Rastreo IETI

83.5 83.5 83.5 1.0 83.5 1

146.5 73.3 146.5 2.0 146.5 2
387.2 129.1 387.2 3.0 387.2 3
308.0 77.0 308.0 4.0 308.0 4
0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 5
#DIV/0!

Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria ESeñal de Rastreo IETI

0
187.4 187.4 -187.4 -1.0 187.4 1
320.2 160.1 -320.2 -2.0 320.2 2
227.0 75.7 -227.0 -3.0 227.0 3
478.7 119.7 -478.7 -4.0 251.7 4
478.7 95.7 -478.7 -5.0 0.0 5
-3.0

Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria ESeñal de Rastreo IETI

105.6 105.6 105.6 1.0 105.6 1
 49.3 24.6 -49.3 -2.0 49.3 2
141.2 47.1 -141.2 -3.0 141.2 3
7.6 1.9 7.6 4.0 7.6 4
84.8 17.0 84.8 5.0 77.2 5
3872.1 645.3 -3702.4 -5.7 3787.2 6
-0.1

pendiente(m) 238.4359
Inter (b) 2356.633
Semana 4 PPM=1 Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E
1 2909.8
2 2999.8 2909.8 90.0 8099.1 90.0 90.0 90.0
3 3157.72 2999.8 157.9 24928.0 157.9 78.9 157.9
4 3481 3157.7 323.3 104510.0 323.3 107.8 323.3
5 3097 3481.0 -384.0 147456.0 384.0 96.0 -384.0
6 3097.0 3097.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Semana 4 real Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E

1 2910 2910 0 0
2 3000 3201.7 -201.88888 40759.1 201.9 201.9 -201.9
3 3158 3502.6 -344.88628 118946.5 344.9 172.4 -344.9
4 3481 3819.3 -338.3 114432.2 338.3 112.8 -338.3
5 3097 4168.3 -1071.3 1147637.1 1409.6 352.4 -1409.6
6 4478.9 4478.9 0.0 0.0 1409.6 281.9 -1409.6

Valor x semana Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD Sumatoria E

1 2910 2958.0 -48.1 2317.7 48.1 48.1 -48.1
2 3000 3043.5 -43.7 1909.3 43.7 21.8 -43.7
3 3158 3129.1 28.6 820.3 28.6 9.5 28.6
4 3481 3214.6 266.4 70954.4 266.4 66.6 266.4
5 3097 3300.2 -203.2 41280.6 469.5 93.9 63.2
6 3385.7 -3385.7 11463133.8 3855.3 642.5 -3322.5

pendiente(m
Señal de Rastreo IETI semana 5 PPM=1 Ft Et
1 1757
1.0 90.0 1 2 1811 1756.7 54.3
2.0 157.9 2 3 1906 1811.1 95.3
3.0 323.3 3 4 2159 1906.4 252.6
-4.0 384.0 4 5 2593 2159.0 434.0
#DIV/0! 0.0 5 6 2593.0 2593.0 0.0

Señal de Rastreo IETI semana 5 real Ft Et

0 1 1757 1757 0
-1.0 201.9 1 2 1811 1933.3 -122.24109
-2.0 344.9 2 3 1906 2115.3 -208.92819
-3.0 338.3 3 4 2159 2306.8 -147.8
-4.0 1071.3 4 5 2593 2523.6 69.4
-5.0 0.0 5 6 2783.8 2783.8 0.0
-3.0

Señal de Rastreo IETI Valor x semana Ft Et

-1.0 48.1 1 1 1757 1641.1 115.6
 -2.0 43.7 2 2 1811 1843.2 -32.1
3.0 28.6 3 3 1906 2045.2 -138.9
4.0 266.4 4 4 2159 2247.3 -88.3
0.7 203.2 5 5 2593 2449.3 143.7
-5.2 3385.7 6 6 2651.4 -2651.4
-0.1

pendiente(m) 85.548804
Inter (b) 2872.43218
 E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD SumatoriaSeñal
E de Rastreo IETI

2951.9 54.3 54.3 54.3 1.0 54.3 1

9085.7 95.3 47.7 95.3 2.0 95.3 2
63816.9 252.6 84.2 252.6 3.0 252.6 3
188356.0 434.0 108.5 434.0 4.0 434.0 4
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 5

E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD SumatoriaSeñal

E de Rastreo IETI
0 0
14942.9 122.2 122.2 -122.2 -1.0 122.2 1
43651.0 208.9 104.5 -208.9 -2.0 208.9 2
21858.5 147.8 49.3 -147.8 -3.0 147.8 3
4810.0 217.2 54.3 -78.5 -1.4 69.4 4
0.0 217.2 43.4 -78.5 -1.8 0.0 5
-1.9

E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD SumatoriaSeñal

E de Rastreo IETI
13361.3 115.6 115.6 115.6 1.0 115.6 1
 1032.0 32.1 16.1 -32.1 -2.0 32.1 2
19280.4 138.9 46.3 -138.9 -3.0 138.9 3
7793.7 88.3 22.1 -88.3 -4.0 88.3 4
20641.0 232.0 46.4 55.4 1.2 143.7 5
7029806.5 2883.3 480.6 -2596.0 -5.4 2651.4 6
-2.0

pendiente(m) 202.048066
Inter (b) 1439.08984
Semana 6 PPM=1 Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD
1 2439
2 2515 2439.1 75.4 5690.5 75.4 75.4
3 2647 2514.5 132.3 17514.7 132.3 66.2
4 3370 2646.9 723.1 522931.5 723.1 241.0
5 2327 3370.0 -1043.0 1087849.0 1043.0 260.8
6 2327 2327.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Semana 6 real Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD

1 2439 2439 0 0
2 2515 2683.9 -169.37264 28687.1 169.4 169.4
3 2647 2936.2 -289.38134 83741.6 289.4 144.7
4 3370 3201.8 168.2 28282.0 168.2 56.1
5 2327 3539.7 -1212.7 1470707.6 1380.9 345.2
6 3773 3773.3 0.0 0.0 1380.9 276.2

Valor x semana Ft Et E2 Sumatoria IEI MAD

1 2439 2533.2 -94.1 8863.5 94.1 94.1
2 2515 2596.4 -81.8 6698.2 81.8 40.9
3 2647 2659.5 -12.6 159.6 12.6 4.2
4 3370 2722.6 647.4 419096.1 647.4 161.8
5 2327 2785.8 -458.8 210456.8 1106.1 221.2
6 2848.9 -2848.9 8116161.2 3955.0 659.2
SumatoriaSeñal
E de Rastreo IETI

75.4 1.0 75.4 1

132.3 2.0 132.3 2
723.1 3.0 723.1 3
-1043.0 -4.0 1043.0 4
0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 5

SumatoriaSeñal
E de Rastreo IETI
0
-169.4 -1.0 169.4 1
-289.4 -2.0 289.4 2
168.2 3.0 168.2 3
-1044.6 -3.0 1212.7 4
-1044.6 -3.8 0.0 5
-1.4

SumatoriaSeñal
E de Rastreo IETI
-94.1 -1.0 94.1 1
 -81.8 -2.0 81.8 2
-12.6 -3.0 12.6 3
647.4 4.0 647.4 4
188.6 0.9 458.8 5
-2660.3 -4.0 2848.9 6
-0.9

pendiente(m) 63.132002
Inter (b) 2470.09569
 1610

SEMANA 2018 REAL Y PRONOSTICO capacidad proyectada capacidad

23 5781 8050 8053
24 7469 8050 8001
25 11411 8050 9662
26 10723 8050 9662
27 11488 8050 8121
28 17397 8050 9662
29 19979 8050 8001
30 17355 8050 9845
31 19649 8050 9932
32 15156 8050 8354
33 10917 8050 10107
34 9992 8050 8502
35 14525 8050 6855
36 8228 8050 8050
37 5650 8050 8050
38 3797 8050 8050
39 4079 8050 8050
40 3415 8050 8050
41 3065 8050 8050

CAPACIDAD
35000
248% 244%
30000 216% 250% 216% 212%
188% 180%
198%
25000 142% 143% 180% 176% 181%
133% 136%
124%
141% 102%
93% 118% 118%
72%
20000 111% 108% 102%
93%
72%

15000

10000

5000

0
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

REAL Y PRONOSTICO capacidad proyectada capacidad utilización

 utilización eficiencia
72% 72%
93% 93%
142% 118%
133% 111%
143% 141%
216% 180%
248% 250%
216% 176%
244% 198%
188% 181%
136% 108%
124% 118%
180% 212%
102% 102%
70% 70%
47% 47%
51% 51%
42% 42%
38% 38%

DAD
300%

212%
180% 200%

136%
124%
102%
108% 118% 100%
102% 70%
47% 51% 42%
70% 38%
47% 51% 42% 38%
0%

-100%

-200%
33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

capacidad utilización eficiencia

 Detalle % TMO
Apertura de Materias 8% 00:11:42
Aranceles y Matrícula 14% 00:10:19 00:14:24
00:11:42
Revisión del trámite 19% 00:11:49 00:11:31 00:10:19
Estado del trámite 2 24% 00:11:27 00:08:38
Información general 28% 00:04:56 00:05:45
Constancia de Estudiante Regular 31% 00:07:05 00:02:52 14%
Requisitos de trámite 34% 00:09:02 00:00:00 8%
Accesos a plataformas universitarias 37% 00:13:06 s a
ria ul
at
e tríc
Materias Programáticas 39% 00:11:51 M a l
de yM de
Registro de Pago 41% 00:13:34 ra es n
rtu cel vi si ó
Total 41% e an Re
Ap Ar

PROCESO DE TALENTO HUMANO

CAPACIDAD INSTALADA DE PUESTOS

28%

Canal Porc %
Telefónico 67.13%
Portal web 27.57%
Presencial 4.39%
Email 0.43%
Campus 0.20%
Telefónico
Chat 0.16% Campus
Redes sociales 0.10%
 ANALISIS DE PROCESO, CUELLO DE BOTELLA
24 00:13:06 00:13:34
00:11:42 00:11:49 00:11:27 00:11:51 40%
31 00:10:19 41%
00:09:02 37% 39%
34% 30%
38 00:07:05
31%
28%
00:04:56 20%
45 24%
19%
52 14% 10%
00 8% 0%
s
ul
a ite 2 al la
r
i te s as o
ria i te er gu ar
ia
tic Pa
g
at
e ríc m n m it
M a t
l trá rá
m g e Re trá rs am
á
de
lt n te e ve
de yM de ció sd i gr ro
s ón de a di
an ti o
n
Pr
o is t
ur
a le
i si do rm su g
ce ta fo tu ui
s a ia
s Re
a n
R ev Es In Es eq rm er
Ar de R ta
fo at
ci a pl
a M
t an a
ns s os
Co ce
Ac

TMO %

0% 0% 0% 0%
4%

28%

67%

Telefónico Portal web Presencial Email

Campus Chat Redes sociales
 00:13:34
11:51 40%
9% 41%
30%
20%
10%
0%
as g o
Pa
de
ro
g is t
Re
 Ambiente Disponibilida
MaTRIZ AHC macroeconó d de bienes y dDisponibilida Educación
Tecnológica superior
mico Servicios
Ambiente ma 1 5 5 1/7
Disponibilida 1/5 1 1/5 1/9
Disponibilida 1/5 5 1 5
educación sup 7 9 1/5 1
Subtotales 8.4 20.0 6.4 6.3

Matriz de Comparación Pareada Normalización

Disponibili
Ambiente Disponibilid Ambiente
MaTRIZ AHC Macroeconó ad de Bienes Empleo IPC Población Macroecon
dad de
mico y Servicios ómico Bienes y
Servicios
Ambiente Ma 1.00 0.14 0.20 0.33 0.14 0.04 0.01
Disponibilida 7.00 1.00 0.33 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.07
Empleo 5.00 3.00 1.00 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.21
IPC 3.00 5.00 0.20 1.00 5.00 0.13 0.35
Población 7.00 5.00 5.00 0.20 1.00 0.30 0.35
Subtotales 23.0 14.1 6.7 1.9 6.5 1.00 1.00

Alternativas Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia México Ponderación

Ambiente Ma 3.4 3.4 5.4 4.8 5.2

Disponibilid
ad de Bienes
y Servicios 3.90 4.10 4.80 3.80 4.30
Infraestruct
ura)

Empleo
(Eficiencia
en el 3.30 3.70 4.40 4.00 3.80
mercado
laboral)

IPC Desarro 3.10 3.70 4.90 4.60 4.50

Población: T 4.90 5.70 4.50 4.80 5.70
Subtotales

Alternativas Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia México

Ambiente Ma 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

Disponibilid
ad de Bienes
y Servicios 0.44 0.46 0.54 0.42 0.48
Infraestruct
ura)

Empleo
(Eficiencia
en el 0.47 0.53 0.63 0.57 0.54
mercado
laboral)

IPC
Desarrollo
1.11 1.33 1.76 1.65 1.62
del sector
Financiero
Población: T 1.62 1.89 1.49 1.59 1.89
Subtotales 3.83 4.39 4.71 4.50 4.81

Ambiente Disponibili
dad de
MaTRIZ AHCMacroecon Bienes y Empleo IPC Población
ómico
Servicios
Ambiente Ma 1 1/7 1/5 1/3 1/7
Disponibilida 7 1 1/3 1/5 1/5
Empleo 5 3 1 1/5 1/5
IPC 3 5 1/5 1 5
Población 7 5 5 1/5 1
Subtotales 23 14 1/7 6 3/4 1 8/9 6 5/9
Normalización Ponderación

Empleo IPC Población Vector

Promedio

0.03 0.17 0.02 0.06

0.05 0.10 0.03 0.11
0.15 0.10 0.03 0.14
0.03 0.52 0.76 0.36
0.74 0.10 0.15 0.33
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

2.454
61.35%