Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Next Era Energy

Presented by: Muhammad Haroon Zahid

ID: 18U00454

Presented to: Dr Rana Wajid

Introduction

NextEra Energy, Inc. is an American energy company with about 46 gigawatts of generating

capacity, revenues of over $17 billion in 2017, and about 14,000 employees throughout the

US and Canada. It is the largest electric utility holding company by market capitalization.

NextEra Energy also owns a competitive clean energy business, NextEra Energy Resources,

LLC, which, together with its affiliated entities, is the world's largest generator of renewable

energy from the wind and sun and a world leader in battery storage.

Original Data

Quarte
Quarte Revenue
Year rr Revenue
2010 1 3622.00
2 3591.00
3 4691.00
4 3413.00
2011 1 3134.00
2 3961.00
3 4382.00
4 3864.00
2012 1 3371.00
2 3667.00
3 3843.00
4 3375.00
2013 1 3279.00
2 3833.00
3 4394.00
4 3630.00
2014 1 3674.00
2 4029.00
3 4654.00
4 4664.00
2015 1 4104.00
2 4358.00
3 4954.00
4 4070.00
Year
3835.0
2016 1 0
3817.0
2 0
4805.0
3 0
3681.0
4 0
3972.0
2017 1 0
4404.0
2 0
4808.0
3 0
3989.0
4 0
3857.0
2018 1 0
4063.0
2 0
4416.0
3 0
4391.0
4 0
4075.0
2019 1 0
4970.0
2 0
5572.0
3 0
4587.0
4 0
4613.0
2020 1 0
4204.0
2 0
 4785.0
3 0
4395.0
4 0

Data collected from Macrotrends.net

Time Series plot of Energy

The Time series plot for energy shows that the data contains both seasonality and trend to an
extent. We can see that the data is not stationary, so in order to make it stationary, we use
different methods. The stationary can be further identified by ACF plots and the ACF will
also confirm that the data is non stationary.

Autocorrelation for Revenue

 Autocorrelation Function for Revenue
(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Lag

Naïve Forecasting Seasonal

Quarte Absolute % Absolute %

Year r Revenue Forecasted Y Error Error Error^2 Error Error
3622.0
2010 1 0 *
3591.0
2 0 *
4691.0
3 0 *
3413.0
4 0 *
3134.0 -
2011 1 0 3622.00 -488.00 488.00 238144.000000 15.57 15.57
3961.0
2 0 3591.00 370.00 370.00 136900.000000 9.34 9.34
4382.0
3 0 4691.00 -309.00 309.00 95481.000000 -7.05 7.05
3864.0
4 0 3413.00 451.00 451.00 203401.000000 11.67 11.67
3371.0
2012 1 0 3134.00 237.00 237.00 56169.000000 7.03 7.03
3667.0
2 0 3961.00 -294.00 294.00 86436.000000 -8.02 8.02
3843.0 -
3 0 4382.00 -539.00 539.00 290521.000000 14.03 14.03
3375.0 -
4 0 3864.00 -489.00 489.00 239121.000000 14.49 14.49
2013 1 3279.0 3371.00 -92.00 92.00 8464.000000 -2.81 2.81
 0
3833.0
2 0 3667.00 166.00 166.00 27556.000000 4.33 4.33
4394.0
3 0 3843.00 551.00 551.00 303601.000000 12.54 12.54
3630.0
4 0 3375.00 255.00 255.00 65025.000000 7.02 7.02
3674.0
2014 1 0 3279.00 395.00 395.00 156025.000000 10.75 10.75
4029.0
2 0 3833.00 196.00 196.00 38416.000000 4.86 4.86
4654.0
3 0 4394.00 260.00 260.00 67600.000000 5.59 5.59
4664.0
4 0 3630.00 1034.00 1034.00 1069156.000000 22.17 22.17
4104.0
2015 1 0 3674.00 430.00 430.00 184900.000000 10.48 10.48
4358.0
2 0 4029.00 329.00 329.00 108241.000000 7.55 7.55
4954.0
3 0 4654.00 300.00 300.00 90000.000000 6.06 6.06
4070.0 -
4 0 4664.00 -594.00 594.00 352836.000000 14.59 14.59
3835.0
2016 1 0 4104.00 -269.00 269.00 72361.000000 -7.01 7.01
3817.0 -
2 0 4358.00 -541.00 541.00 292681.000000 14.17 14.17
4805.0
3 0 4954.00 -149.00 149.00 22201.000000 -3.10 3.10
3681.0 -
4 0 4070.00 -389.00 389.00 151321.000000 10.57 10.57
3972.0
2017 1 0 3835.00 137.00 137.00 18769.000000 3.45 3.45
4404.0
2 0 3817.00 587.00 587.00 344569.000000 13.33 13.33
4808.0
3 0 4805.00 3.00 3.00 9.000000 0.06 0.06
3989.0
4 0 3681.00 308.00 308.00 94864.000000 7.72 7.72
3857.0
2018 1 0 3972.00 -115.00 115.00 13225.000000 -2.98 2.98
4063.0
2 0 4404.00 -341.00 341.00 116281.000000 -8.39 8.39
4416.0
3 0 4808.00 -392.00 392.00 153664.000000 -8.88 8.88
4 4391.0 3989.00 402.00 402.00 161604.000000 9.16 9.16
 0
4075.0
2019 1 0 3857.00 218.00 218.00 47524.000000 5.35 5.35
4970.0
2 0 4063.00 907.00 907.00 822649.000000 18.25 18.25
5572.0
3 0 4416.00 1156.00 1156.00 1336336.000000 20.75 20.75
4587.0
4 0 4391.00 196.00 196.00 38416.000000 4.27 4.27
4613.0
2020 1 0 4075.00 538.00 538.00 289444.000000 11.66 11.66
4204.0 -
2 0 4970.00 -766.00 766.00 586756.000000 18.22 18.22
4785.0 -
3 0 5572.00 -787.00 787.00 619369.000000 16.45 16.45
4395.0
4 0 4587.00 -192.00 192.00 36864.000000 -4.37 4.37
Total
s 163799.00 2680.00 16172.00 9036900.00 42.69 384.09

MAD 367.5454545
MSE 205384.0909
MPE 0.9702905184
MAPE 8.729344346

2021 Forecast
1 4613.00
2 4204.00
3 4785.00
4 4395.00

Autocorrelation Function for Naive Error

(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Lag
Naïve Forecasting Trend

Time Revenue Yt-1 Yt+1 Error Abs Error Error^2

1 3622.00 * *
2 3591.00 * *
3 4691.00 * *
4 3413.00 * *
5 3622.0
3134.00 0 2646.00 488.00 488.00 238144
6 3591.0
3961.00 0 4331.00 -370.00 370.00 136900
7 4691.0
4382.00 0 4073.00 309.00 309.00 95481
8 3413.0
3864.00 0 4315.00 -451.00 451.00 203401
9 3134.0
3371.00 0 3608.00 -237.00 237.00 56169
10 3961.0
3667.00 0 3373.00 294.00 294.00 86436
11 4382.0
3843.00 0 3304.00 539.00 539.00 290521
12 3864.0
3375.00 0 2886.00 489.00 489.00 239121
13 3371.0
3279.00 0 3187.00 92.00 92.00 8464
14 3667.0
3833.00 0 3999.00 -166.00 166.00 27556
15 3843.0
4394.00 0 4945.00 -551.00 551.00 303601
16 3375.0
3630.00 0 3885.00 -255.00 255.00 65025
17 3279.0
3674.00 0 4069.00 -395.00 395.00 156025
18 3833.0
4029.00 0 4225.00 -196.00 196.00 38416
19 4394.0
4654.00 0 4914.00 -260.00 260.00 67600
20 3630.0
4664.00 0 5698.00 -1034.00 1034.00 1069156
21 3674.0
4104.00 0 4534.00 -430.00 430.00 184900
22 4029.0
4358.00 0 4687.00 -329.00 329.00 108241
23 4654.0
4954.00 0 5254.00 -300.00 300.00 90000
24 4070.00 4664.0 3476.00 594.00 594.00 352836
 0
25 4104.0
3835.00 0 3566.00 269.00 269.00 72361
26 4358.0
3817.00 0 3276.00 541.00 541.00 292681
27 4954.0
4805.00 0 4656.00 149.00 149.00 22201
28 4070.0
3681.00 0 3292.00 389.00 389.00 151321
29 3835.0
3972.00 0 4109.00 -137.00 137.00 18769
30 3817.0
4404.00 0 4991.00 -587.00 587.00 344569
31 4805.0
4808.00 0 4811.00 -3.00 3.00 9
32 3681.0
3989.00 0 4297.00 -308.00 308.00 94864
33 3972.0
3857.00 0 3742.00 115.00 115.00 13225
34 4404.0
4063.00 0 3722.00 341.00 341.00 116281
35 4808.0
4416.00 0 4024.00 392.00 392.00 153664
36 3989.0
4391.00 0 4793.00 -402.00 402.00 161604
37 3857.0
4075.00 0 4293.00 -218.00 218.00 47524
38 4063.0
4970.00 0 5877.00 -907.00 907.00 822649
39 4416.0
5572.00 0 6728.00 -1156.00 1156.00 1336336
40 4391.0
4587.00 0 4783.00 -196.00 196.00 38416
41 4075.0
4613.00 0 5151.00 -538.00 538.00 289444
42 4970.0
4204.00 0 3438.00 766.00 766.00 586756
43 5572.0
4785.00 0 3998.00 787.00 787.00 619369
44 4587.0
4395.00 0 4203.00 192.00 192.00 36864

Sum 9036900
MSE 205384.0909
Moving Average:

Next era energy

Date t prod MA Error Error^2
3/31/2010 1 $3,622
6/30/2010 2 $3,591
9/30/2010 3 $4,691
12/31/201
4 $3,413
0
3/31/2011 5 $3,134 3829.25 -695.25 483372.5625
6/30/2011 6 $3,961 3707.25 253.75 64389.0625
9/30/2011 7 $4,382 3799.75 582.25 339015.0625
12/31/201
8 $3,864
1 3722.5 141.5 20022.25
3/31/2012 9 $3,371 3835.25 -464.25 215528.0625
6/30/2012 10 $3,667 3894.5 -227.5 51756.25
9/30/2012 11 $3,843 3821 22 484
12/31/201
12 $3,375
2 3686.25 -311.25 96876.5625
3/31/2013 13 $3,279 3564 -285 81225
6/30/2013 14 $3,833 3541 292 85264
9/30/2013 15 $4,394 3582.5 811.5 658532.25
12/31/201
16 $3,630
3 3720.25 -90.25 8145.0625
3/31/2014 17 $3,674 3784 -110 12100
6/30/2014 18 $4,029 3882.75 146.25 21389.0625
9/30/2014 19 $4,654 3931.75 722.25 521645.0625
12/31/201
20 $4,664
4 3996.75 667.25 445222.5625
3/31/2015 21 $4,104 4255.25 -151.25 22876.5625
6/30/2015 22 $4,358 4362.75 -4.75 22.5625
9/30/2015 23 $4,954 4445 509 259081
12/31/201
24 $4,070
5 4520 -450 202500
3/31/2016 25 $3,835 4371.5 -536.5 287832.25
6/30/2016 26 $3,817 4304.25 -487.25 237412.5625
9/30/2016 27 $4,805 4169 636 404496
12/31/201
28 $3,681
6 4131.75 -450.75 203175.5625
3/31/2017 29 $3,972 4034.5 -62.5 3906.25
6/30/2017 30 $4,404 4068.75 335.25 112392.5625
9/30/2017 31 $4,808 4215.5 592.5 351056.25
12/31/201
32 $3,989
7 4216.25 -227.25 51642.5625
3/31/2018 33 $3,857 4293.25 -436.25 190314.0625
6/30/2018 34 $4,063 4264.5 -201.5 40602.25
9/30/2018 35 $4,416 4179.25 236.75 56050.5625
12/31/201
36 $4,391
8 4081.25 309.75 95945.0625
3/31/2019 37 $4,075 4181.75 -106.75 11395.5625
6/30/2019 38 $4,970 4236.25 733.75 538389.0625
9/30/2019 39 $5,572 4463 1109 1229881
12/31/201
40 $4,587
9 4752 -165 27225
3/31/2020 41 $4,613 4801 -188 35344
6/30/2020 42 $4,204 4935.5 -731.5 535092.25
9/30/2020 43 $4,785 4744 41 1681
12/31/202
44 $4,395
0 4547.25 -152.25 23180.0625
Moving Average

Length 4

Accuracy Measures

MAPE 9
MAD 367
MSD 200662

Forecasts

Period Forecast Lower Upper

45 4499.25 3621.28 5377.22

Double Moving Average

Double
Time Revenue MA MA a b Forecast Error Error^2
1 $3,622 * *
 2 $3,591 * *
3 $4,691 * *
4 $3,413 * *
5 $3,82 *
$3,134 9
6 $3,70 *
$3,961 7
7 $3,80 *
$4,382 0
8 $3,72 3764.69 -84.375
$3,864 3 -28.125
9 $3,83 3766.19 138.125 $3,48
$3,371 5 46.04166667 -112.5 4 12134772.25
10 $3,89 3813.00 163 $3,48
$3,667 5 54.33333333 184.1666667 3 12130128.03
11 $3,82 3818.31 5.375 $3,62
$3,843 1 1.791666667 217.3333333 6 13145458.78
12 $3,68 3809.25 -246 $3,36
$3,375 6 -82 7.166666667 8 11342301.36
13 $3,56 3741.44 -354.875 - $3,60
$3,279 4 118.2916667 -328 7 13010449
14 $3,54 3653.06 -224.125 - - $4,30
$3,833 1 74.70833333 473.1666667 6 18543071.36
15 $3,58 3593.44 -21.875 - - $4,69
$4,394 3 7.291666667 298.8333333 3 22022684.69
16 $3,72 3601.94 236.625 - $3,65
$3,630 0 78.875 29.16666667 9 13389500.69
17 $3,78 3656.94 254.125 $3,35
$3,674 4 84.70833333 315.5 9 11279522.25
18 $3,88 3742.38 280.75 $3,69
$4,029 3 93.58333333 338.8333333 0 13617330.03
19 $3,93 3829.69 204.125 $4,28
$4,654 2 68.04166667 374.3333333 0 18315546.78
20 $3,99 3898.81 195.875 $4,39
$4,664 7 65.29166667 272.1666667 2 19288200.03
21 $4,25 4016.63 477.25 $3,84
$4,104 5 159.0833333 261.1666667 3 14767368.03
22 $4,36 4136.63 452.25 $3,72
$4,358 3 150.75 636.3333333 2 13850802.78
23 $4,44 4264.94 360.125 $4,35
$4,954 5 120.0416667 603 1 18931201
24 $4,52 4395.75 248.5 $3,59
$4,070 0 82.83333333 480.1666667 0 12886903.36
25 $4,37 4424.81 -106.625 - $3,50
$3,835 2 35.54166667 331.3333333 4 12275680.11
26 $4,30 4410.19 -211.875 - $3,95
$3,817 4 -70.625 142.1666667 9 15675000.69
27 $4,16 4341.19 -344.375 - $5,08
$4,805 9 114.7916667 -282.5 8 25882656.25
28 $3,681 $4,13 4244.13 -224.75 - - $4,14 17140980.03
 2 74.91666667 459.1666667 0
29 $4,03 4159.88 -250.75 - - $4,27
$3,972 5 83.58333333 299.6666667 2 18247136.11
30 $4,06 4101.00 -64.5 - $4,73
$4,404 9 -21.5 334.3333333 8 22451802.78
31 $4,21 4112.63 205.75 $4,89
$4,808 6 68.58333333 -86 4 23951236
32 $4,21 4133.75 165 $3,71
$3,989 6 55 274.3333333 5 13798748.44
33 $4,29 4198.44 189.625 $3,63
$3,857 3 63.20833333 220 7 13227769
34 $4,26 4247.38 34.25 $3,81
$4,063 5 11.41666667 252.8333333 0 14517370.03
35 $4,17 4238.31 -118.125 $4,37
$4,416 9 -39.375 45.66666667 0 19099813.44
36 $4,08 4204.56 -246.625 - $4,54
$4,391 1 82.20833333 -157.5 9 20688852.25
37 $4,18 4176.69 10.125 - $4,40
$4,075 2 3.375 328.8333333 4 19393748.03
38 $4,23 4169.63 133.25 $4,95
$4,970 6 44.41666667 13.5 7 24566892.25
39 $4,46 4240.56 444.875 $5,39
$5,572 3 148.2916667 177.6666667 4 29098832.11
40 $4,75 4408.25 687.5 $3,99
$4,587 2 229.1666667 593.1666667 4 15950704.69
41 $4,80 4563.06 475.875 $3,69
$4,613 1 158.625 916.6666667 6 13662880.11
42 $4,93 4737.88 395.25 $3,57
$4,204 6 131.75 634.5 0 12741330.25
43 $4,74 4808.13 -128.25 $4,25
$4,785 4 -42.75 527 8 18130564
44 $4,54 4756.94 -419.375 - $4,56
$4,395 7 139.7916667 -171 6 20848356

Sum 610005593
MS
E 10166759.88
Winters Method (0.2)

Next era
energy Level Trend Seasonal
prod Estimates Estimates Estimate FITS1 Error FORE1
3440.63540
$3,622 3797.9219 55.22437996 0.9231171024 5 181.3645946 4339.203451
3809.33040 -
$3,591 3808.97794 46.39071195 0.979457356 9 218.3304092
4350.79986
$4,691 3915.660873 58.44915632 1.142405345 1 340.2001391
3844.51706 -
$3,413 3884.897457 40.60664177 0.9496186094 4 431.5170638
3623.69996 -
$3,134 3819.407057 19.38723339 0.9026029247 9 489.6999693
3759.93530
$3,961 3879.850635 27.59850233 0.9877490028 6
201.0646942
-
$4,382 3893.112583 24.73119153 1.13903978 4463.89078 81.89077976
3720.45735
$3,864 3948.075416 30.77751965 0.9554358293 7 143.5426427
 3591.32429 -
$3,371 3930.033174 21.01356741 0.8936330545 6 220.3242964
3902.64247 -
$3,667 3903.333713 11.47096182 0.9780898756 9 235.6424787
4459.11825 -
$3,843 3806.622632 -10.16544686 1.113143091 5 616.1182546
3627.27121 -
$3,375 3743.649616 -20.72696073 0.9446539989 9 252.2712188
3326.92674 -
$3,279 3712.196386 -22.87221458 0.8915673559 4 47.92674395
$3,833 3735.231891 -13.6906706 0.9877068156 3608.49062 224.5093803
4142.60789
$4,394 3766.709196 -4.65707539 1.123821573 8 251.3921024
$3,630 3778.177056 -1.432088475 0.9478793605 3553.83758 76.16241965
3367.22252
$3,674 3845.562533 12.33142468 0.9043312612 4 306.7774757
3810.46815
$4,029 3902.144304 21.18149398 0.9966672979 6 218.5318442
$4,654 3966.905995 29.89753346 1.133698564 4409.11817 244.8818299
3788.48757
$4,664 4181.5343 66.84368772 0.9813795014 3 875.5124269
3841.94102
$4,104 4306.3344 78.43497013 0.9140679496 4262.058976
-
$4,358 4382.329992 77.94709457 0.9962234705 4370.15624 12.15624016
5056.60972 -
$4,954 4442.175322 74.32674152 1.130002727 7 102.6097266
4432.40254
$4,070 4442.646324 59.55559366 0.9683277295 3 -362.402543
4115.31847 -
$3,835 4440.867642 47.28873863 0.9039683566 6 280.3184755
4471.20672 -
$3,817 4356.819036 21.02126973 0.972198356 6 654.2067259
4946.97148 -
$4,805 4352.712671 15.99574266 1.124784041 2 141.9714822
4230.34149 -
$3,681 4255.246518 -6.696636459 0.9476721365 9 549.3414987
- 3840.55465
$3,972 4277.631728 0.8802671151 0.9088849218 4 131.4453459
4157.85073
$4,404 4327.389123 9.247265361 0.9812994284 9 246.1492606
4877.77940 -
$4,808 4324.22878 6.765743556 1.122202146 3 69.77940311
4104.36283 -
$3,989 4306.647953 1.896429419 0.9433861922 3 115.3628333
- 3915.97102 -
$3,857 4295.567817 0.6988836822 0.9066883871 4 58.97102363
4214.55242 -
$4,063 4263.980822 -6.876505901 0.9756126325 9 151.5524288
$4,416 4192.707433 -19.75588246 1.108413191 4777.33160 -
 1 361.3316005
- 3936.70487
$4,391 4269.263142 0.4935642283 0.9604118985 4 454.2951263
3870.44380
$4,075 4313.891187 8.530757684 0.9142752709 3 204.556197
4217.00945
$4,970 4476.784552 39.40327912 1.002524468 2 752.9905477
5005.80216
$5,572 4618.351508 59.8360145 1.128028773 4 566.1978355
$4,587 4697.765172 63.7515445 0.9636138649 4492.98696 94.01304004
4353.33698
$4,613 4818.31865 75.1119311 0.9228977978 7 259.6630135
4905.78388
$4,204 4753.427237 47.11126236 0.9789024752 8 -701.783888
5415.14555 -
$4,785 4688.813415 24.76624531 1.10652583 4 630.1455541
4542.07071 -
$4,395 4683.054837 18.6612807 0.9585890862 4 147.0707137

Smoothing Constants

α (level) 0.2
γ (trend) 0.2
δ (seasonal) 0.2

Accuracy Measures

MAPE 7
MAD 295
MSD 130521

Forecasts

Period ForecastLower Upper

3617.1
45 4339.2 3 5061.27
Winters Method (0.4)

Next era
energy prod LEVE1 TREN1 SEAS1 FITS1 RESI1 FORE1
$3,622 3837.5438 78.99751982 0.9268190623 3440.635405 181.3645946 4053.721797
-
$3,591 3802.846623 33.51964146 0.9708941762 3872.004555 281.0045551
$4,691 3964.551663 84.7938008 1.150396917 4329.355587 361.6444131
-
$3,413 3840.826145 1.386073114 0.9358787794 3917.299123 504.2991228
- -
$3,134 3657.910646 72.33455564 0.8988007382 3561.035525 427.0355251
$3,961 3783.243382 6.732360952 1.001330604 3481.214945 479.7850553
$4,382 3797.633479 9.795455298 1.151788747 4359.976411 22.02358933
$3,864 3935.953296 61.20519995 0.9542148541 3563.291943 300.7080567
-
$3,371 3898.516384 21.74835534 0.8851556085 3592.649007 221.6490066
- -
$3,667 3817.009707 19.55365744 0.9850782338 3925.481059 258.4810587
- -
$3,843 3613.093371 93.29872899 1.116525857 4373.867147 530.8671475
-
$3,375 3526.652498 90.55558675 0.955328182 3358.640331 16.35966921
$3,279 3543.431506 -47.6217486 0.9012430344 3041.480452 237.5195477
$3,833 3653.910459 15.61853175 1.010652187 3443.646102 389.353898
$4,394 3775.886043 58.16135286 1.135395664 4097.124001 296.8759987
$3,630 3820.324979 52.67238619 0.9532692873 3662.773528 -32.7735284
$3,674 3954.435155 85.24750216 0.9123791746 3490.511898 183.4881022
-
$4,029 4018.423469 76.74382676 1.007444116 4082.714113 53.71411334
$4,654 4096.705019 77.35891591 1.13565137 4649.63519 4.364809662
$4,664 4461.492915 192.330508 0.9901175653 3979.006952 684.993048
-
$4,104 4591.545994 167.4195364 0.9049541422 4246.051573 142.0515735
-
$4,358 4585.69862 98.11277229 0.9846048401 4794.391823 436.3918231
-
$4,954 4555.188529 46.66362714 1.116411236 5319.176826 365.1768262
- -
$4,070 4405.360479 31.93304385 0.9636203201 4556.374653 486.3746533
- -
$3,835 4319.16998 53.63602615 0.8981333165 3957.751273 122.7512733
-
$3,817 4109.993229 -115.852316 0.962247701 4199.865376 382.8653759
-
$4,805 4118.07238 66.27972918 1.136569961 4459.103794 345.8962061
- -
$3,681 3959.063294 103.3714719 0.9500783453 3904.389731 223.3897311
$3,972 4082.417502 - 0.9280611551 3462.925284 509.0747164
 12.68120004
$4,404 4272.55543 68.44645136 0.9896545646 3916.0944 487.9056003
-
$4,808 4296.709899 50.72965853 1.129540266 4933.852341 125.8523409
-
$3,989 4287.904181 26.91550769 0.9421635314 4130.408181 141.4081814
-
$3,857 4251.282262 1.500536999 0.919738967 4004.416544 147.4165441
- -
$4,063 4193.858841 22.06904605 0.9813117425 4208.785909 145.7859091
- -
$4,416 4066.89595 64.02658418 1.112060327 4712.204555 296.2045549
$4,391 4265.941515 41.2022755 0.9770243448 3771.357537 619.6424628
$4,075 4356.528245 60.95605759 0.925994518 3961.44798 113.5520196
$4,970 4676.350371 164.5024848 1.013904892 4334.929219 635.070781
$5,572 4908.71953 191.6491545 1.12128536 5383.32041 188.6795899
-
$4,587 4938.168275 126.7689907 0.9577693814 4983.184373 396.1843726
-
$4,613 5031.630744 113.4463818 0.9223167851 4690.104142 77.10414229
- -
$4,204 4745.58448 46.35067623 0.9626933861 5216.618868 1012.618868
- -
$4,785 4526.509862 115.4402531 1.095613551 5269.18207 484.1820697
-
$4,395 4482.156696 87.00541814 0.9668835254 4224.78741 170.2125895

Smoothing
Constants

α (level) 0.4
γ (trend) 0.4
δ (seasonal) 0.4

Accuracy Measures

MAPE 7
MAD 307
MSD 137828

Forecasts

Period Forecast Lower Upper

45 4053.72 3300.69 4806.75
Single Exponential Smoothing
Date T Next era energy prod FITS1 RESI1 FORE1
3/31/2010 1 $3,622 3622 0 4530.097704
6/30/2010 2 $3,591 3622 -31
3616.29606
9/30/2010 3 $4,691
2 1074.703938
12/31/201 3814.03943
4 $3,413
0 7 -401.0394372
3740.24898
3/31/2011 5 $3,134
3 -606.2489828
3628.70038
6/30/2011 6 $3,961
2 332.2996175
3689.84284
9/30/2011 7 $4,382
8 692.1571525
12/31/201 3817.19837
8 $3,864
1 9 46.80162075
3825.80978
3/31/2012 9 $3,371
4 -454.8097839
3742.12569
6/30/2012 10 $3,667
3 -75.12569325
3728.30271
9/30/2012 11 $3,843
6 114.6972841
12/31/201 3749.40678
12 $3,375
2 7 -374.4067868
3680.51668
3/31/2013 13 $3,279
7 -401.5166869
6/30/2013 14 $3,833 3606.63842 226.3615805
3648.28849
9/30/2013 15 $4,394
8 745.7115024
12/31/201 3785.49792
16 $3,630
3 3 -155.4979226
3756.88661
3/31/2014 17 $3,674
6 -82.88661585
3741.63564
6/30/2014 18 $4,029
4 287.3643557
3794.51011
9/30/2014 19 $4,654
1 859.489889
12/31/201 3952.65453
20 $4,664
4 2 711.3454684
4083.54067
3/31/2015 21 $4,104
5 20.45932489
6/30/2015 22 $4,358 4087.30515 270.69485
4137.11246
9/30/2015 23 $4,954
1 816.887539
12/31/201 4287.41813
24 $4,070
5 4 -217.4181344
4247.41363
3/31/2016 25 $3,835
2 -412.4136325
6/30/2016 26 $3,817 4171.53034 -354.5303489
 9
4106.29747
9/30/2016 27 $4,805
4 698.7025262
12/31/201 4234.85734
28 $3,681
6 1 -553.8573412
4132.94869
3/31/2017 29 $3,972
8 -160.9486981
6/30/2017 30 $4,404 4103.33446 300.6655404
4158.65631
9/30/2017 31 $4,808
8 649.3436823
12/31/201 4278.13425
32 $3,989
7 7 -289.1342565
4224.93413
3/31/2018 33 $3,857
2 -367.9341316
4157.23498
6/30/2018 34 $4,063
7 -94.23498726
4139.89593
9/30/2018 35 $4,416
8 276.1040619
12/31/201 4190.69853
36 $4,391
8 3 200.3014667
4227.55360
3/31/2019 37 $4,075
3 -152.5536025
4199.48404
6/30/2019 38 $4,970
5 770.5159552
9/30/2019 39 $5,572 4341.25744 1230.74256
12/31/201 4567.71160
40 $4,587
9 9 19.28839085
4571.26063
3/31/2020 41 $4,613
4 41.73936551
4578.94059
6/30/2020 42 $4,204
4 -374.9405943
4509.95227
9/30/2020 43 $4,785
5 275.0477252
12/31/202 4560.56050
44 $4,395
0 6 -165.5605061

Smoothing
Constant

α 0.183998

Accuracy Measures

MAPE 9
MAD 372
MSD 225167

Forecasts
Period Forecast Lower Upper
45 4530.1 3617.63 5442.57

Double Exponential Smoothing

Next Next
era era
energy energy
Date t prod prod LEVE1 TREN1 FITS1 Error FORE1
3632.02181 3650.27983 -
3/31/2010 1 $3,622
$3,622 3 532.6399517 4 28.27983377 4499.115131
3794.29437 - 4164.66176 -
6/30/2010 2 $3,591
$3,591 4 233.2074495 5 573.6617649
4290.58117 - 3561.08692
9/30/2010 3 $4,691
$4,691 3 3.809414454 4 1129.913076
12/31/201 3722.64741 - 4286.77175 -
4 $3,413
0 $3,413 5 31.37097832 8 873.7717584
3331.48773 - 3691.27643 -
3/31/2011 5 $3,134
$3,134 8 48.94926457 6 557.2764363
3720.56666 - 3282.53847
6/30/2011 6 $3,961
$3,961 5 27.54841186 3 678.461527
9/30/2011 7 $4,382 $4,382 4137.83850 - 3693.01825 688.9817467
 8 5.815717675 3
12/31/201 3958.98197 - -
8 $3,864
1 $3,864 1 14.27001614 4132.02279 268.0227898
- 3944.71195
3/31/2012 9 $3,371
$3,371 3574.31216 32.36673137 5 -573.711955
3622.68313 - 3541.94542
6/30/2012 10 $3,667
$3,667 5 28.42210909 9 125.0545713
3754.85183 - 3594.26102
9/30/2012 11 $3,843
$3,843 2 20.57608403 6 248.7389737
12/31/201 3502.32021 - 3734.27574 -
12 $3,375
2 $3,375 3 31.90879348 8 359.2757475
3346.83241 -
3/31/2013 13 $3,279
$3,279 8 -37.9465236 3470.41142 191.4114195
3647.26433 - 3308.88589
6/30/2013 14 $3,833
$3,833 6 21.41428362 4 524.1141056
4121.78286 3625.85005
9/30/2013 15 $4,394
$4,394 4 2.815629551 2 768.1499477
12/31/201 3805.27591 - 4124.59849 -
16 $3,630
3 $3,630 6 12.78559336 4 494.5984938
3715.99062 - 3792.49032 -
3/31/2014 17 $3,674
$3,674 5 16.52315817 2 118.4903222
3912.22019 - 3699.46746
6/30/2014 18 $4,029
$4,029 3 6.128645097 6 329.5325335
3906.09154
9/30/2014 19 $4,654
$4,654 4388.95605 17.46278637 8 747.9084518
12/31/201 4572.71833 4406.41883
20 $4,664
4 $4,664 4 25.58772247 6 257.5811639
4279.17228 4598.30605 -
3/31/2015 21 $4,104
$4,104 2 9.995723961 7 494.3060569
4333.60730 4289.16800
6/30/2015 22 $4,358
$4,358 4 12.16690584 6 68.83199439
9/30/2015 23 $4,954 $4,954 4738.45682 31.35229814 4345.77421 608.2257904
12/31/201 4317.99849 4769.80911
24 $4,070
5 $4,070 9 9.278073938 8 -699.809118
4009.45307 - 4327.27657 -
3/31/2016 25 $3,835
$3,835 3 6.249908124 2 492.2765725
3882.98671 - 4003.20316 -
6/30/2016 26 $3,817
$3,817 6 12.12335317 4 186.2031644
4473.96046 3870.86336
9/30/2016 27 $4,805
$4,805 7 17.3423126 2 934.1366376
12/31/201 3968.15526 - -
28 $3,681
6 $3,681 5 8.217236099 4491.30278 810.3027797
3967.72547 - 3959.93802
3/31/2017 29 $3,972
$3,972 6 7.836762841 9 12.06197112
4246.61575 3959.88871
6/30/2017 30 $4,404
$4,404 1 6.171931617 3 444.1112866
4611.24374 4252.78768
9/30/2017 31 $4,808
$4,808 5 23.68510893 3 555.2123171
12/31/201 4634.92885 -
32 $3,989
7 $3,989 4217.9044 3.310441061 4 645.9288543
 - 4221.21484 -
3/31/2018 33 $3,857
$3,857 3986.07053 8.178063227 1 364.2148407
4032.83957 - 3977.89246
6/30/2018 34 $4,063
$4,063 5 5.493498643 7 85.1075334
4278.26874 4027.34607
9/30/2018 35 $4,416
$4,416 3 6.765892712 6 388.6539238
12/31/201 4353.44797 4285.03463
36 $4,391
8 $4,391 2 10.10838019 6 105.9653644
4177.25865 4363.55635 -
3/31/2019 37 $4,075
$4,075 9 1.006387284 3 288.5563527
4689.42480 4178.26504
6/30/2019 38 $4,970
$4,970 5 25.98024719 7 791.7349534
5268.43970 4715.40505
9/30/2019 39 $5,572
$5,572 7 52.99999935 2 856.5949477
12/31/201 4847.27089 5321.43970 -
40 $4,587
9 $4,587 4 29.83341531 6 734.4397064
4706.59333 4877.10430 -
3/31/2020 41 $4,613
$4,613 9 21.5027183 9 264.1043088
4389.72926 4728.09605 -
6/30/2020 42 $4,204
$4,204 8 4.971047623 7 524.0960573
4646.68551 4394.70031
9/30/2020 43 $4,785
$4,785 8 17.28235154 6 390.2996843
12/31/202 4490.31688 -
44 $4,395
0 $4,395 9 8.798242229 4663.96787 268.9678695

Smoothing
Constants

α (level) 0.64562
γ (trend) 0.048857

Accuracy
Measures

MAPE 11
MAD 467
MSD 291135

Forecasts

Period Forecast Lower Upper

45 4499.12 3354.81 5643.42
Trend Analysis

Date t Next era energy prod FITS1 RESI1 FORE1

3/31/2010 1 $3,622 3632.29697 -10.2969697 4654.386892
3655.52628
6/30/2010 2 $3,591
6 -64.52628612
9/30/2010 3 $4,691 3678.75560 1012.244397
 3
12/31/201 3701.98491
4 $3,413
0 9 -288.984919
3725.21423
3/31/2011 5 $3,134
5 -591.2142354
3748.44355
6/30/2011 6 $3,961
2 212.5564482
3771.67286
9/30/2011 7 $4,382
8 610.3271318
12/31/201 3794.90218
8 $3,864
1 5 69.09781536
3818.13150
3/31/2012 9 $3,371
1 -447.1315011
3841.36081
6/30/2012 10 $3,667
7 -174.3608175
3864.59013
9/30/2012 11 $3,843
4 -21.5901339
12/31/201
12 $3,375
2 3887.81945 -512.8194503
3911.04876
3/31/2013 13 $3,279
7 -632.0487667
3934.27808
6/30/2013 14 $3,833
3 -101.2780832
9/30/2013 15 $4,394 3957.5074 436.4926004
12/31/201 3980.73671
16 $3,630
3 6 -350.736716
4003.96603
3/31/2014 17 $3,674
2 -329.9660324
4027.19534
6/30/2014 18 $4,029
9 1.804651163
4050.42466
9/30/2014 19 $4,654
5 603.5753347
12/31/201 4073.65398
20 $4,664
4 2 590.3460183
4096.88329
3/31/2015 21 $4,104
8 7.116701903
4120.11261
6/30/2015 22 $4,358
5 237.8873855
4143.34193
9/30/2015 23 $4,954
1 810.6580691
12/31/201 4166.57124
24 $4,070
5 7 -96.57124736
4189.80056
3/31/2016 25 $3,835
4 -354.8005638
6/30/2016 26 $3,817 4213.02988 -396.0298802
4236.25919
9/30/2016 27 $4,805
7 568.7408034
12/31/201 4259.48851
28 $3,681
6 3 -578.488513
3/31/2017 29 $3,972 4282.71782 -310.7178295
 9
4305.94714
6/30/2017 30 $4,404
6 98.05285412
4329.17646
9/30/2017 31 $4,808
2 478.8235377
12/31/201 4352.40577
32 $3,989
7 9 -363.4057787
4375.63509
3/31/2018 33 $3,857
5 -518.6350951
4398.86441
6/30/2018 34 $4,063
2 -335.8644116
4422.09372
9/30/2018 35 $4,416
8 -6.093727977
12/31/201 4445.32304
36 $4,391
8 4 -54.3230444
4468.55236
3/31/2019 37 $4,075
1 -393.5523608
4491.78167
6/30/2019 38 $4,970
7 478.2183228
4515.01099
9/30/2019 39 $5,572
4 1056.989006
12/31/201
40 $4,587
9 4538.24031 48.75968992
4561.46962
3/31/2020 41 $4,613
6 51.5303735
4584.69894
6/30/2020 42 $4,204
3 -380.6989429
4607.92825
9/30/2020 43 $4,785
9 177.0717407
12/31/202 4631.15757
44 $4,395
0 6 -236.1575758

Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 3609 + 23.23×t

Accuracy Measures

MAPE 8
MAD 343
MSD 185848

Forecasts

Period Forecast
45 4654.39
 Decomposition

Next
era
energy
Date t prod T S SCI CI C I TSCI
3/31/2010 1 $3,622 3632.29697 0.9191290667 0.997165163 1.084902218
0.000248369223
6/30/2010 2 $3,591
3655.526286 0.9967725068 0.982348291 0.9855290794 3968 6 3591
0.000287663900
9/30/2010 3 $4,691
3678.755603 1.137103931 1.275159458 1.121409771 3898.333333 1 4691
0.000259888112
12/31/2010 4 $3,413
3701.984919 0.9469944959 0.9219378454 0.97354087 3746 7 3413
0.000261319866
3/31/2011 5 $3,134
3725.214235 0.9191290667 0.8412938967 0.9153163872 3502.666667 9 3134
0.000277109037
6/30/2011 6 $3,961
3748.443552 0.9967725068 1.056705255 1.060126807 3825.666667 4 3961
0.000251102192
9/30/2011 7 $4,382
3771.672868 1.137103931 1.161818682 1.021734822 4069 6 4382
0.000277661932
12/31/2011 8 $3,864
3794.902185 0.9469944959 1.018208062 1.075199557 3872.333333 6 3864
0.000264329994
3/31/2012 9 $3,371
3818.131501 0.9191290667 0.8828925874 0.9605752003 3634 6 3371
1 0.000264047586
6/30/2012 $3,667
0 3841.360817 0.9967725068 0.9546096225 0.9577005947 3627 1 3667
9/30/2012 1 $3,843 3864.590134 1.137103931 0.9944133445 0.8745140331 3628.333333 0.000241023619 3843
 1 6
1 0.000261984918
12/31/2012 $3,375
2 3887.81945 0.9469944959 0.8680958679 0.9166852307 3499 7 3375
1
3/31/2013 $3,279
3 3911.048767 0.9191290667 0.8383940461 0.9121613889 3495.666667 0.000260940609 3279
1 0.000254844109
6/30/2013 $3,833
4 3934.278083 0.9967725068 0.9742575179 0.9774121088 3835.333333 7 3833
1 0.000247049848
9/30/2013 $4,394
5 3957.5074 1.137103931 1.110294829 0.9764233495 3952.333333 1 4394
1 0.000246947909
12/31/2013 $3,630
6 3980.736716 0.9469944959 0.9118915063 0.9629322137 3899.333333 1 3630
1 0.000264270467
3/31/2014 $3,674
7 4003.966032 0.9191290667 0.9175902019 0.9983257359 3777.666667 4 3674
1 0.000243672617
6/30/2014 $4,029
8 4027.195349 0.9967725068 1.000448116 1.003687511 4119 3 4029
1 0.000227124117
9/30/2014 $4,654
9 4050.424665 1.137103931 1.149015322 1.0104752 4449 8 4654
2 0.000270228387
12/31/2014 $4,664
0 4073.653982 0.9469944959 1.144918057 1.209001807 4474 8 4664
2 0.000249095632
3/31/2015 $4,104
1 4096.883298 0.9191290667 1.001737101 1.089876425 4375.333333 7 4104
2 0.000237290468
6/30/2015 $4,358
2 4120.112615 0.9967725068 1.057738078 1.061162975 4472 4 4358
2 0.000235724810
9/30/2015 $4,954
3 4143.341931 1.137103931 1.195653191 1.051489805 4460.666667 7 4954
2 0.000240647968
12/31/2015 $4,070
4 4166.571247 0.9469944959 0.9768223699 1.03149741 4286.333333 8 4070
2 0.000254867849
3/31/2016 $3,835
5 4189.800564 0.9191290667 0.9153180304 0.9958536441 3907.333333 5 3835
2 0.000218896773
6/30/2016 $3,817
6 4213.02988 0.9967725068 0.9059987962 0.9089323693 4152.333333 5 3817
2 0.000243232126
9/30/2016 $4,805
7 4236.259197 1.137103931 1.134255431 0.9974949521 4101 8 4805
2 0.000219752507
12/31/2016 $3,681
8 4259.488513 0.9469944959 0.8641882678 0.9125589131 4152.666667 6 3681
2 0.000251070259
3/31/2017 $3,972
9 4282.717829 0.9191290667 0.927448447 1.009051373 4019 6 3972
3 0.000233483731
6/30/2017 $4,404
0 4305.947146 0.9967725068 1.022771495 1.026083171 4394.666667 4 4404
3 0.000221959344
9/30/2017 $4,808
1 4329.176462 1.137103931 1.110603839 0.9766951018 4400.333333 4 4808
3 0.000229446072
12/31/2017 $3,989
2 4352.405779 0.9469944959 0.916504619 0.9678035332 4218 4 3989
3 0.000241589469
3/31/2018 $3,857
3 4375.635095 0.9191290667 0.8814720415 0.9590296656 3969.666667 9 3857
3 0.000225349754
6/30/2018 $4,063
4 4398.864412 0.9967725068 0.9236474735 0.926638192 4112 9 4063
3
9/30/2018 $4,416
5 4422.093728 1.137103931 0.9986219813 0.8782152224 4290 0.000204712173 4416
12/31/2018 3 $4,391 4445.323044 0.9469944959 0.9877797308 1.04306808 4294 0.000242912920 4391
 6 4
3 0.000221531516
3/31/2019 $4,075
7 4468.552361 0.9191290667 0.9119284437 0.9921658195 4478.666667 7 4075
3 0.000227826745
6/30/2019 $4,970
8 4491.781677 0.9967725068 1.106465175 1.110047847 4872.333333 6 4970
3 0.000215210356
9/30/2019 $5,572
9 4515.010994 1.137103931 1.234105522 1.085305827 5043 4 5572
4 0.000216758307
12/31/2019 $4,587
0 4538.24031 0.9469944959 1.010744184 1.067317908 4924 9 4587
4 0.000246257236
3/31/2020 $4,613
1 4561.469626 0.9191290667 1.01129688 1.100277335 4468 9 4613
4 0.000202896389
6/30/2020 $4,204
2 4584.698943 0.9967725068 0.9169631534 0.9199322284 4534 1 4204
4
9/30/2020 $4,785
3 4607.928259 1.137103931 1.038427625 0.9132213841 4461.333333 0.000204696963 4785
4
12/31/2020 $4,395
4 4631.157576 0.9469944959 0.9490067932 1.00212493

Seasonal Indices

Period Index
Below
1 0.91913 Average
Below
2 0.99677 Average
Above
3 1.1371 Average
Below
4 0.94699 Average

Accuracy Measures

MAPE 8
MAD 327
MSD 168677

Forecast for next

year
time p T S C I Ŷt
45 4654.35 0.91913 1 1 4277.952716
46 4677.58 0.99677 1 1 4662.471417
47 4700.81 1.1371 1 1 5345.291051
48 4724.04 0.94699 1 1 4473.61864
ARIMA (1,2,1)(1,1,0)^4

Time Series Plot of Revenue

5500

5000
Revenue

4500

4000

3500

3000
4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44
Index
 Autocorrelation Function for Revenue
(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Lag
 Autocorrelation Function for 1st Seasonal Difference
(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Lag

Partial Autocorrelation Function for 1st Seasonal Difference

(with 5% significance limits for the partial autocorrelations)

1.0

0.8

0.6
Partial Autocorrelation

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Lag
 Partial Autocorrelation Function for 2nd D+1st SD
(with 5% significance limits for the partial autocorrelations)

1.0

0.8

0.6
Partial Autocorrelation

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Lag

Autocorrelation Function for 2nd D+1st SD

(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Lag
Final Form Equation for ARIMA

Yt – Yt-2 – Yt- µ - Yt-6 – ϕ Yt-4 - ϕ Yt-6 - ϕ Yt-3 + ϕ Yt-10 - ϕ Yt + ϕ Yt-3 + ϕ Yt-3 + ϕ Yt-6 - ϕ ϕ
Yt-5 + ϕ ϕ Yt-7 + ϕ ϕ Yt-9 + ϕ ϕ Yt-11 = Et - ϕ Yt-1 + µ

Conclusion

In order to render the data stationary in this article, various methods were used. Since
ARIMA cannot be applied to non-stationary data, the main goal of making the data stationary
was to create an ARIMA model of the data. The ARIMA model was then used until it had
been achieved. (1,2,1) (1,1,0)^4 is the ARIMA model used in this equation. After taking the
first seasonal difference this model was discovered and by looking at the values this was the
best model to use.