HAWASSA UNIVERSITY

THE SUPER POWERS’ RIVALRY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA AND

ITS IMPLICATIONS ON ETHIOPIA'S POLITICAL AND NATIONAL
I NTERST SINCE 1991; - ACOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE
(USA, CHINA, AND RUSSIA.)

MA THESIS PROPOSAL

By: ABDISSA DORANA

HAWASSA UNIVERSITY, HAWASSA, ETHIOPIA

JAUNAY/2021
THE SUPER POWERS RIVALRY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA AND ITS
IMPLICATIONS ON ETHIOPIA'S POLITICAL AND NATIONAL INTERST
SINCE 1991: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE USA, CHINA, AND RUSSIA

By: ABDISSA DORANA

ATHESIS SUBMITTED TO THE

SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

COLLEGE OF LAW AND GOVERNANCE, SCHOOL OF

GRADUATE STUDIES

HAWASSA UNIVERSITY

HAWASSA, ETHIOPIA

IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE

DEGREE OF

MASTER OF ART IN

INTERNATIONAL RELATION AND DIPLOMACY

ADVISORS

MAJOR ADVISOR: AKALEWOLDE E.(Asst. prof)

CO-ADVISOR: KEDIR D. (MA)

DEC, 2022

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 ADVISORS’ APPROVAL SHEET

SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

HAWASSA UNIVERSITY ADVISORS’ APPROVAL SHEET

This is to certify that the thesis entitled The Super Powers Rivalry in the Horn of
Africa and its Implications on Ethiopia’s Political and National Interest Since 1991:
A Comparative Analysis of the USA, CHINA, AND RUSSIA. Submitted in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master's in international relation
and diplomacy, the Graduate Program of the Department/School of Governance and
development study, and has been carried out by Abdissa Dorana ID. No.
GPIRdR/0001/14, under our supervision. Therefore we recommend that the student
has fulfilled the requirements and hence hereby can submit the thesis proposal to the
department.

Name of major advisor Signature Date

__________________________ _______________ _______________

Name of co-advisor Signature Date

___________________________ ______________ _________________

iii
Acknowledgments

First and foremost, I would like to express my honorable thanks to Almighty God for
all the things He has done in my life. I have heartfelt gratitude and appreciation to
my advisors Akalewolde E.(Ass.Pro..) and Co-advisor Mr Kedir.D.(MA) for their
intellectual comments, advise and helpful behavior in which I had and will had the
opportunity to grasp more knowledge concerning research work and I will have a
chance to significantly benefit from his profound knowledge and experience in the
field of advanced research methodology and political science and International
Relations.

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List of abbreviation and acronym
AGOA African Growth and opportunity Act

AU African Union

BBC British Broadcasting Corporation

BRI Belt and Road Initiative

CJTF Combined Joint Task Force

ESAT Ethiopian Satellite Television

GDP Gross domestic product

HoA Horn of Africa

IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development

NGO Non- governmental organization

UNSC United Nations Security Council

USA United States of America

USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

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Table of contents

Contents
List of abbreviation and acronym...................................................................................................1
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................1
1.1 Background of the Study..........................................................................................................1
1.2 The statement of the problem;..................................................................................................3
1.3 Objective of the study...............................................................................................................4
1.3.1 The general objectives of the study-........................................................................4
1.3.2 The specific Objectives of the research...................................................................5
1.4 Research questions-..................................................................................................................5
1.5 Significance of the study..........................................................................................................5
1.6 Delimitation of the Study:-.......................................................................................................6
1.8 Conceptualization of key the terms..........................................................................................6
CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF LITERATURE, ........................................................................8
2.1CONCEPTS...............................................................................................................................8
2.1.1 DEFINING THE CONCEPT OF SUPER POWER..............................................8
2.1.2 Concept of superpower rivalry.................................................................................9
2.1.3 National interest and the Rivalry of superpower...................................................10

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 2.1.4 Political interest......................................................................................................11
2.2 THEORETICAL REVIEW....................................................................................................13
2.2.1. Realism..................................................................................................................13
2.2.2 Great power competition theory............................................................................14

2.2.3 Marxism..................................................................................................................14
2.3 Empirical Review literature....................................................................................................15
2.3.2 The security issues in the horn of Africa...............................................................17
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODS AND METHODOLOGY..................................18
3.1 Description of the study area:-...............................................................................................18
3.1.1The Horn of Africa;-...............................................................................................18
3.1.2 Ethiopia's geopolitical position in the Horn of Africa.......................................20
3.2 Research Approach/ Design...................................................................................................20
3.3 Sampling techniques...............................................................................................................21
3.4 Data types and Sources...........................................................................................................21
3.5 Method of Data collection......................................................................................................21
3.6 Instruments of Data collection................................................................................................22
3.6.1 Interviews...........................................................................................................22
3.6.2. Questionnaire.........................................................................................................22
3.6.3. Semi-structured Interview.....................................................................................22
3 .7 Data analysis and Interpretation............................................................................................23
3.8 Ethical consideration...............................................................................................................23
References.....................................................................................................................................24
Internet sources.............................................................................................................................26
4. TIME PLAN..............................................................................................................................27
4.1. Time plan (Schedule)...............................................................................................27
4.2. Budget Plan (Cost Breakdown).............................................................................................27
5. Reference...................................................................................................................................28

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CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

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1.1 Background of the Study
Nations with a hegemonic position that affects a large portion of the world are referred to
as "superpowers." The term "superpower" was first used in 1944 end of WWII to identify
nations with more influence over international politics, the economy, and military
activities. A superpower, according to Lyman Miller, is a nation that has an advantage
across all four axes of power. They are the military, the economy, the political system, and
the cultural system. A superpower should be able to utilize its strength both peacefully and
militarily on a global scale, (https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-are-global-
superpowers.html). Nowadays, the existence of the huge mass of military, economy and
politically dominant states especially, USA, Russia, China, and other regional powers
threating the state of the world and its global or regional politics.

According to realist scholars such as Hans Morgenthau and neorealist scholars such as
Kenneth Waltz, the number of superpowers is the most determining factor in international
politics. The first modern superpower was first used to describe the British Empire, which,
at the end of the 19th century, extended Queen Victoria’s reign over nearly one- quarter of
the world’s land surface and more than one-quarter of the world’s population. However, it
became commonly used as a concept only after World War II. During the Cold War,
scholars generally used this concept to refer exclusively to its two main protagonists, the
United States and the U.S.S.R. (Munro, 2020).

According to the world population review of 2022, Countries that are under the
Superpowers category are; United States, China, European Union, India and Russia. The
U.S. and the U.S.S.R. ruled world undertakings amid the Cold War, and not one or the
other made a move without considering the response of the other .U.S. became the only a
superpower after the Soviet Union dissolved in the early 1990s.

The U.S. is the world’s most prevailing military and financial control, with a military
budget of US$778 billion for 2020 and a Net Residential Item (GDP) of US$20.9 trillion.
The United States spends more on defense than another nine highest-spending nations
(China, India, Russia, the U.K., Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea)
combined (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-superpowers).

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China is considered to be a rising superpower or a potential superpower. Some of the
scholars argued that China will pass the US as a worldwide superpower within the coming
decades. China’s 2020 GDP was US$14.7 trillion, the second-highest within the world.
Russia is the world’s biggest nation by landmass, covering most of northern Asia and
Eastern Europe and sharing borders with more than a dozen neighboring nations. Russia is
additionally one of the world's driving providers of oil, characteristic gas, and wheat. Its
2020 GDP was as it were US$1.4 trillion, generally 10% of China's and less than 7% of
the US GDP. Ibid1;.

According to US News and world report of 2021, US, Russia, and China became the world
top superpowers rest of all others respectively and they have the large number of economy,
military force, demography, having political and diplomatic superiority over other state of
the world, which make them to shape international politics.
(https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/power).

The, 2020 survey (released in 2021), the United States is the world’s most powerful
country. The United States has the world’s largest economy, with a GDP of $20.93 trillion
in 2020 and the most massive military budget of $778 billion in 2020.The U.S. defense
spending is higher than the next ten largest defense spenders (China, India, Russia, the
United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, and Italy)
combined (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-powerful-countries).

The geographical location of the horn of Africa is, it is the north-eastern region of the
continent where the Horn of Africa is geographically situated. Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan are the seven states that make up this region.

These seven nations are connected by tribal, cultural, historical, economic, political, and
security links and also this region is one of the most geostrategic place in continent of
Africa which invites many external players in the horn (Berouk, 2011, cited in Kidist ,
2014).

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According to Kidist, 2014 the horn of Africa is one of the most geo-strategically important
regions of the world next to the Middle East. On the other hand it is economically
significant: its proximity to the Red Sea positions marked an important maritime trade
which is linking Europe, Africa and Asia. It gives access to emerging markets that have
attractively low labor costs; and it is rich in natural resources. On the other hand, the Horn
of Africa is a highly fragile full of complex security issues; for example, there are many
foreign military bases in Djibouti rather than any other country in the world.

In cause of Djibouti’s geostrategic location the US has established the Combined Joint
Task Force at Camp Lemonnier in the horn of Africa since 2002, other countries, including
China, western European states, Japan and Saudi Arabia, also established their base in this
area(Savoy and Janina,S 2022).Thus, according to , Savoy and Janina, 2022 After
September 11 attack ,the USs’ first and most important security issues in its foreign policy
was to control the strategic place of the horn of Africa in the behalf of against terrorist
attack in the region.

Some scholars in the Horn of Africa argue that the region lacks a clear regional power, and
that it is characterized by contested leadership. Kenya, the region’s economic power, lacks
the hard power to assume a leadership position. Although Sudan has potential, it is
grappling with numerous unresolved internal armed conflicts. Ethiopia is arguably
constrained by lack of economic capacity. Despite this, other scholars argue that Ethiopia
is “the most powerful and dominant power” in the Horn of Africa. Consequently, scholars
are divided as to whether or not Ethiopia can be qualified as a regional power (Dehez 2008
cited i n Kidist, 2014).

1.2 The statement of the problem;

The Horn of Africa is the game place for superpower rivalry and strategic interest between
many western and non-western powers. USA, China and Russia are among the major
powers involved in the region. There are also many other actors involved in the region
including the Gulf countries, Turkey, Iran and other nations. Rivalry among these and
other super powers have made the region to be complicated and become one of the most
conflict prone areas in the world. For instance, “USA, China, France and Japan maintain a
military base in Djibouti to against terrorist and also the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
Saudi Arabia and Turkey are also getting their base in the HoA."(Mathew, 2022).

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Currently an estimated 10 to 20 per cent of the world trade including over 6 million barrels
of oil per day reportedly throughout the Horn’s shores. This makes the region one of the
most important regions in the world next to the Middle East. Thus, the superpowers
considered that, dominating this position, as a gift to control all economic, political and
security issues of the Middle East, Africa, Europe and all Asian continent (Guido, 2021).

Therefore, super power rivalry and competition for strategic interest have created chaos in
the region. Currently, there is political disagreement between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt,
in cause of boundary and Nile water, in this cause US highly participated as a mediator in
the issue of these tripartite political disagreement in the region. Thus, US as true meditator
started its meditation with its enforcing agreement, but “Ethiopia withdrew from the talks
as the White House attempted to force it to sign a three-way peace accord, disqualifying
the US as an unbiased mediator” ( Gabriel, 2022).The above conspiracy that US is doing is
for the sake of its national interest which lead the horn in to political chaos.

In addition to this, the militarization of the Horn has both an opportunity as well as a
security risk for Ethiopia, mainly because of its geographical position at the center of the
Horn and its becoming landlocked country in the region. Concerning that, many studies
were conducted by researchers investigating the opportunities and security risks that
Ethiopia has been facing from super powers interference in the Horn of Africa. For
instance, Gashaw Ayferam and Zelalem Muchie (2016), conducted research on The
Advent of Competing Foreign Powers in the Geostrategic importance in the Horn of
Africa: Analysis of Opportunity and Security Risk for Ethiopia, but they did not addressed
the gap between the risk of superpowers in current Ethiopia’s national and political interest
accordingly.

Therefore, this study will fill this research gap by adding new insights to previous studies.
It also sheds light on some research problems which was not addressed by previous
researchers in this area of study.

1.3 Objective of the study

1.3.1 The general objectives of the study -

The general objective of this research will be to assess the nature and extent of
Superpower rivalry in the Horn of Africa and its implication for Ethiopia’s political and
national interest, comparatively.
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1.3.2 The specific Objectives of this research is-
1. To explain how the superpower’s Rivalry in the Horn of Africa affect Ethiopia’s
political and national interest?

2. To analysis the Ethiopia’s, geo-strategic position and political interaction with the horn
of African states;

3. To discuss the major factors behind the superpowers, that leads them to rivalry in the
Horn of Africa.

1.4 Research questions -

1. How the superpowers Rivalry in the Horn of Africa affect Ethiopia’s political and
national interest?

2. What are the major factors behind the superpowers that cause rivalry in the Horn of
Africa?

3. To explore what factors hinder Ethiopia to play a leading role in the politics of horn of
Africa?

1.5 Significance of the study

The study of this research will complement the existing work of literature on the
implication of the rivalry of the superpowers in the horn of Africa .This research will puts
forward suggestions, solution and recommendation on the topic, which is very useful to;
the policy makers of the horn of African states by recognizing the interest of the
superpower in the region, the academician to more understand the strategic place of Africa
and its importance to the rest world, international governmental and non-governmental
organizations, the international and domestic politicians to more understand the hot
politics of the horn of Africa, the individuals and societies of the horn of Africa and the
rest world ,finally, will help as references for future researchers .

1.6 Scope/Delimitation of the Study :-

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In terms of geographical area, this study was limited to the Horn of Africa, because this
area is more strategic and use as a bridge that used to interconnect Asia, Europe, America
and even Africa with the Middle East. Thematically, this research would also be limited
only on the superpower rivalry in the horn of Africa between major powers USA, Russia
and China only. Thus, the study does not take into consideration super power rivalry
among other super powers in the politics and national interest.

.1.7 Organization of the Study

This study will be organized into 5 chapters. To begin with, the first chapter it includes,
introductory part, statement of the problem, objectives of the study; general and specific
objectives, research questions, significance of the study, scope of the study, limitation of
the study and Research methodology. the second chapter contains review of related
literature; conceptual framework that includes the superpower rivalry, Geo-strategy,
Geopolitical Strategy, Geo-political competition and Security and also theoretical frame
works that are Realism, Neorealism, Liberalism, Neoliberalism and Marxism. Chapter
three identifies the methodology of the study which includes the research design, study
population and sampling, data collection methods, methods of data analysis, ethical
consideration. The fourth chapter of this study will be concerned all about The
Geostrategic Competition between U.S.A, Russia and China in the Horn of Africa and its
Implications for Ethiopia’s political and National Interests. Finally, the fifth chapter will
present conclusion and recommendation as well as references.

1.8 of key the terms

 Superpower; which means, a given state having enormously superior military or
economic force, or both, and global influence to other states (Munro, 2020).
 Unipolar; it is a situation in which one state has more authority than the other state
in the world, example USA after collapse of USSR.( Nuno,2014)
 Bi-polarity; it is a form of international order in which the majority of the world's
economic, military, and cultural power dominated and influenced by two states
(Gilpin, 1987).
 Multi-polar; it is the power sharing system between three or more nations, alliances,

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 parties,(Karl and J. David,1964).
 Rivalry; it is the act of competing for the same thing to against another person or
state or continent. .https://www.merriam-webster.com
 Horn of Africa; it is located in eastern Africa ,the area containing Djibouti, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Sudan, south Sudan and Somalia, whose civilizations have long been
intertwined. It is the easternmost extension of African land (Britannica, 2022)
 National interest; it is a state of affairs that is only regarded for its advantages to the
nation is referred to as having national interests. The need to care for one's own
country's wellbeing is a sign of the national egoism that drives men to pursue this
goal; it is self-love that has been transferred to the national good(Morgethau1985)
 Politics; it is the art of the exercise of power; the combination of individuals or
parties (groups) making decisions that affect others and institutions (i.e.,
government, legal system, military, police) that governs based on those decisions.

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CHAPTER TWO: CONCETUAL LITERATURE, THEORETICAL
AND EMIIRICAL REVIEW)
2.1CONCEPT
2.1.1 DEFINING THE CONCEPT OF SUPER POWER
Nations with a hegemonic position that affects a large portion of the world are referred to
as "superpowers." The term "superpower" was first used in 1944 to identify nations with
more influence over international politics, the economy, and military activities. A
superpower, according to Lyman Miller, is a nation that has an advantage across all four
axes of power. They are the military, the economy, the political system, and the cultural
system. A superpower should be able to utilize its strength both peacefully and militarily
on a global scale, says Professor June Dreyer (2022 worldatlas.com).

Superpower countries are exerting significant influence over other nations of the world
due to their national interests, which are based on the development of their economies,
politics, and military might in comparison to other countries
(https://www.studysmarter.us/explanations/politics/world-politics/superpower-countries /).

The following diagram shows that how the superpower rivalry affects Ethiopia’s political
and national interests .s

2.1.2 Concept of superpower rivalry

International cooperation is required as a result of trade and financial globalization, under

superpowers will fight international piracy, to tackle Somali-based piracy in the Indian
Ocean. The coordinated campaign started in 2005, picked up momentum at the end of that
decade, and is still going strong now. It is not the only counter-piracy cooperation; in the
Malacca Strait, more than twenty nations, including the United States, China, India,
Pakistan, and Russia, collaborate on counter-piracy policy to maintain the openness of that
crucial trade route (Bruce, 2021).

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According to Bruce, number of the world’s superpowers and regional powers are
participating on the strategic place of HoA. The scenario shows, it is clear that the HoA is
not the only place for the breeding ground for terrorist and antipiracy in international level
which and which has no any clear justification. Therefore, nowadays there are many
terrorist attacks and attempts has been happening in the world, which shows that clearly,
the rivalry of the superpowers in the strategic place of the horn is for the sake of their
national interest in the behalf of terrorist attack.

There are also indications that the US is advancing toward greater dominance and
competition on the geopolitical front rivalry with China in Taiwan and the Horn. The new
U.S. National Security Strategy was published by the White House in December 2017,
China is one of the "strategic competitors" that "challenge American strength, influence,
and interests"(Weixing, 2018), pp. 61-88.Therefore, based the Weixing point of view
really the superpower rivalry in the horn and other part of the world has real impact
countries’ political and national interest. Currently the geo-strategic competition between
china and US in Taiwan became the serious issues for the state of Taiwan and other its
allies like Russia, even its citizen around the world because of they are looking the current
political crisis of Ukraine and Russia.

2.1.3 National interest and the Rivalry of superpower

National interest is; a state of affairs that is only regarded for its advantages to the nations
and it is also the strategic goals of state in international politics works for the advantages
of its nation(Morganthau, 1952.p.973).The rivalry of superpower in the horn of Africa
makes the region one of political unstable region which is going to against the national
interest of the state of the horn, because the superpowers working for only the interest of
their nations and to dominate the world politics through economic domination. Thus, the
superpowers (United States, China and Russia) fought for control of the vital Red Sea and
Gulf of Aden shipping lanes because of this area connect the Mediterranean with the
Indian Ocean during the Cold War (1947–1991) era. They attempted to create spheres of
influence in the Horn sub-region by looking for local allies, thus they think that Ethiopia
being the focal point for this goal, and in Djibouti, the superpower rivalry in the Horn of
Africa is well on display (Aleksi, 2022.)

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China and Russia have solidified their positions as rising big powers in Africa since 2000.
The strength of China's economy has supported the growth of its influence in Africa. The
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is becoming increasingly popular throughout Africa, and
Beijing has taken as the lead in enabling connectivity projects all over the continent
(SAMUEL, 2021).

Based on the above explanation Russia was one of the best allies to Ethiopia in the horn,
when there was a war between Ethiopia and Somalia. Russia supported military and other
equipment’s, but US stand behind with the state of Somalia in the courses of that war in
1977/78.Which shows that US selected Somali, because of the existence of better
geostrategic position comparing with Ethiopia which shows that how much of USA is
very few best egoistic state in the world.

Based on the significance of the horn of Africa on the global scale, China identified the
Horn of Africa as its focal point for significant economic, political, and military growth
opportunities, with the clear goal. China demanded to secure its interest in the horn of
Africa by making great all form of relation with the country Ethiopia in the Horn, because
Ethiopia stands out as a country with immense political and economic potential in the horn
of Africa (Maj, 2021).

2.1.4 Political interest

In the Horn of Africa (HoA), if not the entire continent, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy
Ahmed and his recently ousted Sudanese colleague, Abdalla Hamdok, are perhaps the
most pro-US leaders. However, the current crises in those nations have made Washington's
absence of a clear and comprehensive policy for the area evident. The United States was
ill-equipped to respond, the political crisis of year-old insurgency in Ethiopia or the
military coup in Sudan (Gabriel, 2022).This statement shows that, policy and politics of
US is not clear in the horn of Africa even that of the middle east, but US working only for
the sake their national interest, for instance after 20 years of the war in Afghanistan, the
US president violating the initial goals of US in Afghanistan “said that we are not going to
build Democracy, but against terrorist”.

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With its dynamic and quickly changing demography, the Horn of Africa should not be
seen by Washington as a malleable instrument in its competitiveness and rivalry with
China, India, or Russia. Without sacrificing the political independence of the regional
partners, the area must have the freedom to collaborate with all of its global partners on the
basis of mutual benefits (Sophia, 2021).According to Maji and Sophia, the existence of
contrast interest among US, China and Russia lead the horn of Africa as the place of
conflict based region in the continent. Therefore the rivalry between the superpowers in
the horn and other part of the world directly or indirectly affects the state’s political and
national interest.

Thus, to weaken Ethiopia US used different pretexts in Security Council and even like as
meditator of the conflict happened between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. According to BBC
News of 2020, Trump used all of the hate speech to against Ethiopia’s great Renaissance
Dam. Therefore, Kenya-based Horn of Africa security analyst Rashid Abdi said “US
mediation over the dam had worsened tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia”. Ethiopia,
Egypt, and Sudan are all parties to a protracted conflict that is centered on the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Egypt wouldn't be able to handle the dam, according to Mr.
Trump, who further said that the project would "blow up."
(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54674313).

Based on above scenario, politically the interest of US in the HoA and especially in
Ethiopia has been hindering factor for Ethiopia’s political interest. Because of, general, the
policy of US in the Horn of Africa (HoA) for the past 20 years is disturbing the horn
rather than bringing any stability but ,Competing with other global and regional powers,
US played the bad game using its international institution especially UNSC, because as
great state of the world and as permanent member of the Security Council, US expected to
keep peace and security in the horn of Africa and middle east by using real diplomacy and
democracy.

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It is the only deals the engagement of US to maintain its national interest regardless of
others. For instance, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan has disagreement regarding to Ethiopia’s
Great Renaissance Dam , but US provoking war conflict among Ethiopia, Sudan and
Egypt president, Trump asserted that “Egypt would be unable to tolerate the project and
may "blow up" its development”(BBC News 24 October
2020,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54674313). Not only that US using the
belligerent talk using its digital diplomacy to evacuate its citizen and other international
community from Ethiopia in the last year and which is the plot intended to disturb the
political situation of Ethiopia blacken in the front page of international community.

Lastly, the US, would be wise to reconsider its approach to regional cooperation and use of
sanctions—among other issues—as the HoA goes through dramatic changes, including
sustained economic growth, a rising middle class, and a transition to stable democracy,
example Ethio-Eritrea rapprochement in 2018 thus, US would be wise to lay out a more
inclusive, values-driven, and future-focused strategy for the region (Geberil,2022). For
instance, the crisis in Ethiopia was encouraged by US hesitation to strongly denounce a
rebel attack on a democratically installed government and the rule of law. The lack of
retaliation from Washington and Brussels in the face of the invasion encouraged the rebels
to turn their attention to Addis Abeba, and the overthrow of Abiy became their ultimate
objective.

2.2 THEORETICAL REVIEW

2.2.1. Realism

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According to realist perspective about the human nature or states is selfish and power
seeking egoistic. The realist view deals that “conflict is inevitable” and the realists are at
the same time deals of “the peace and cooperation between human and states is in nature
competition”. The prospects of contradictory events took place in the past among the states
even exist in the future. The emergency events are supposed to be repeatedly happening on
the global stage in the absence of one central government to run certain set of international
laws and Secondly realism strongly deal that, in international system states seek to gain
more power and calculate their interests in terms of power in relationship with other states
(Amir, 2019).
.Realists argues that states are always involved in power competition as a result of the will
to survive and dominate other countries. International politics is about power, and every
state struggles to gain power (Morgenthau 2006). ‘Realism’ is a term, which is used in at
least two domains. On the one hand, it refers to the observational theory of international
relations that has to find explanations for things like the end of the Cold War. On the other
hand, realism refers to a particular foreign policy /security doctrine or strategy, often
associated with strategies of containment or military preparedness for war. In the first case,
it is an external view to analyze the world, often focused on explaining actors’ behaviors.
In the second, it corresponds to devise an actor’s general plan of action (Guzzini 2017,
p.10).

According to Baylis et al., 2008, cited in Zhang 2010, p. 35), “Realism is the dominant
theory of International Relations.” It provides the most powerful explanation for the state
of war and the rise and fall of great powers. The unifying themes of realism include the
nation state as the actor; national sovereignty, security, survival and interests as the
ultimate goal; balance of power and alliance in a state of anarchy as the key strategy;
balance of terror as the method of temporary truce; dominance, hegemony and polarity as
the types of international system structure; change, method and calculation as the policy.
The great British statesman Lord Palmerston formulated the credo of realists: “We have no
eternal allies, and we have no eternal enemies; our interests are eternal and those interests
it is our duty to follow” (Frankel 1970, p.18 cited in Zhang 2010, p. 35).Therefore ,the
theory which is dealing that, the state competition one over other to maximize its power
and national interest through domination is more related with the titles based on the
power rivalry between the superpowers in the horn, that what realist strongly supports that
states are power seeking egoistic.

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2.2.2 Great power competition theory
The great power competition idea focuses on changing the long-standing unipolar
international system. In 2015, the Obama administration's national military strategy
agenda, according to a congressional research service article (2021), gave prominence to
this notion. It was also renewed by the Trump administration in 2017 under the names
National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy. This notion is also evident in
the interim national security strategy guidance document from the Joe Biden
administration, which was released in 2021. The US, China, and Russia are the main rivals
in the current great power conflict, all of which have a strong desire to control world
politics. The competition is apparent in military strength, cyber security, technological
power (5G), aid, and alliance formation, according to US, Great Power Competition:
Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress report of 2022.All of these occur within
significant governmental organizations, in educational institutions, and through military
deployment. As a result, this idea is crucial in explaining how superpower competition
manifests itself in the Horn region.

2.2.3 Marxism
In the mid-1840s, Marx and Engels wrote that capitalist globalization was seriously eroding
the foundations of the international system of states. Conflict and competition between
nation-states had not yet ended in their view but the main fault-lines in future looked certain
to revolve around the two principal social classes: the national bourgeoisie, which controlled
different systems of government, and an increasingly cosmopolitan proletariat. The outline of
a radically new social experiment was already contained within the most advanced political
movements of the industrial working class. Through revolutionary action, the international
proletariat would embed the Enlightenment ideals of liberty, equality and fraternity in an
entirely new world order which would free all human beings from exploitation and
domination (Marx and Engels 1977 cited in Burchill et al., 2005, p.110)This theory highly
deals that, “Conflict and competition between nation-states had not yet ended” which means
there is nation states and there is competition based on their different national interest, it may
be its political, economic and social issues. Thus, this theory more supports the study area
also deals that competition or rivalry between the superpowers for their power domination
around the world.
2.3 Empirical Review literature
2.3.1 THE HORN OF AFRICA AND SUPER POWER RIVALARY IN THE REGION

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The Horn of Africa is a battleground where superpowers fight for dominance on the world
map (Vertin, 2019).Thus Djibouti serves as one of the best excellent example of the Horn
of Africa's great power competition. The tiny nation is situated on the African side of the
strategically important Red Sea checkpoint of Bab al-Mandab, which has long drawn the
interest of foreign powers and use as the best import-export route to Ethiopia. Due to
Djibouti's strategic location, the US has maintained the Combined Joint Task Force - Horn
of Africa at Camp Lemonnier since 2002 (Alekis, 2022 ).

The map above shows clear geostrategic positions of the Horn of Africa, in eastern part of
Africa region.

Therefore, in general based on the above explanation, the horn is a magnet for the world's
super powers and the region that the superpowers are compete each other for the sake
domination in military and economy over one other for the sake of international politics. That
is because of; this region is located near to the Middle East, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Others are in the process of establishing a military base in Djibouti, such as China, USA,
Saudi .According to kidist, 2014 “scholars argue that Ethiopia is the most powerful and
dominant power in the Horn of Africa.

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Thus, Ethiopia will be one the great power in the horn of Africa is the great challenging
question to the external players. Therefore, some of the external players like US and some of
the European countries are marking as headline and breaking news all the day and night to
blacken Ethiopian politics in the international community and also they are working to
weaken Ethiopia’s economy, because of economically weak Ethiopia is no matter to easily
control the horn of Africa. In cause of this during Ethiopia’s conflict with TPLF, US used
Security Council (UNSC) as an international institution to achieve its conspiracy.
However, some of the superpower like China, Russia, India and others strongly stand with
Ethiopia’s truth and not to against the truth of the horn, therefore when US and its allies
going to try to interfere the internal matter of the horn, but china not support. “China stands
against any attempt to interfere in the domestic affairs of Ethiopia” since Ethiopians have the
wisdom of solving their problems and stabilize situations by themselves, he said” its official
visitingEthiopia.https://ethiopianmonitor.com/2021/12/01/china-stands-against-any-
interference-in-ethiopias-internal-affairs-fm-yi-says

2.3.2 The security issues in the horn of Africa

According to Mabera,2022,it is possible to think that the Horn of Africa as a regional security
complex, which is described as "a collection of governments whose major security
preoccupations and concerns are so interconnected that their national security problems
cannot fairly be evaluated or resolved apart from one another" (Buzan, 1991 cited in Mabera,
2020, p.2). Due to its strategic location in the Horn of Africa, porous borders, and ties to all
of the neighboring governments on an ethnic and historical level, Ethiopia is more susceptible
to regional wars than other states in the area (Kidist, 2014, p. 19).

Border disputes between Sudan and Ethiopia, which both contend for sovereignty of the al-
Faqsha region, have further exacerbated the regional security situation (which is currently
under the control of Sudan). Another controversial topic in the Horn of Africa is Ethiopia's
construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the sharing of the Nile's
waters. The GERD and its effects on the Nile's flow are a concern for Sudan and Egypt,
which are downstream. The alliance between Egypt and Sudan is growing, and the stances of
the three nations on this matter have become more firm. The unrest in the Horn of Africa is
being exacerbated by these interstate disputes over land and water and also the political
unrest of Somalia (Sankalp, 2022)
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 The Horn of Africa is once again unstable as a result of economic difficulty and the
persistence of the Covid-19. Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Sudan all continue to experience dire
economic conditions, even actuality, the IMF declined to release Ethiopia's outlook for 2022.
Therefore, as the focal point of strategic rivalries between major countries like the United
States, Russia, and China, the region will make maintaining stability and security much more
difficult. In the area, there is now more competition for military bases. For instance, the
military bases of the US, France, China, and Japan are located in Djibouti, whilst Russia
plans to build a base in Port Sudan. The unpredictability will present opportunities for greater
big power presence which has leaded the superpowers in rivalry.

Relatively there is a research which has been worked by different researchers in this title, but
there is the research gap which it doesn’t deal all the current activities of the superpower over
the horn of Africa and their positive and negative outcomes to the region, especially the study
limited area. For instance, the last researcher, Gashaw Ayferam and Zelalem Muchie (2016),
conducted research on the Advent of Competing Foreign Powers in the Geostrategic
importance in the Horn of Africa: Analysis of Opportunity and Security Risk for Ethiopia,
but they did not addressed the gap between the risk of superpowers in current Ethiopia’s
national and political interest accordingly.

Therefore, the present study under the selected tittle will going to address the problem which
was not investigated by the last researcher. For example, the paradox statement of USA,
China and Russia’s Embassy in Addis Ababa regarding the security issue of Ethiopia when
Ethiopia was under its civil war with TPLF. Besides to this, the present study accounts how
the superpower rivalry going to against the national interest of Ethiopia in relation with
Ethiopia’s Great Renaissance Dam. Thus, the present study touches all the issues which are
not discussed by the previously researcher.For instance, the previous researchers were
relatively conducted the geo-strategic competition between US and China in the Horn of
Africa, but it doesn’t conducted with current situation of Ethiopia’s political and national
interest in detail, like that the Ethiopia’s withdrawal of AGOA.

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19 | P a g e
 SUPERPOWER

USA HAS AN AGENDA OF VS

 Terrorist CHINA HAS APLAN O

RUSSIA HAS A PLAN
 Piracy ATTACK
OF
Also has a plan of humanitarian  Piracy
 Security issues
aid  Terrorist
 Opposing western
China has also New
ideology
economic plan (BRI)
And a plan of humanitarian aid

HORON OF AFRICA

IMPLICATION ON ETHIOPIA

POLITICAL INTEREST; NATIONAL INTEREST;

 Ethiopia acts as hegemonic power in the  Economic prosperity

region and opposing the colonial ideology  Sovereignty
in HoA  How to respect human right

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CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODS AND METHODOLOGY
3.1 Description of the study area;
The study mainly focus on the superpower rivalry in the horn and its implication to
Ethiopia’s political and national interest

3.1.1The Horn of Africa;

On the African continent, the Horn of Africa is the area that is most militarized and rife with
war. Whether at the centers or the edges of the region, military conflicts have been raging for
many decades within nations, between states, and among proxies. A failed state in Somalia,
an unresolved boundary dispute between Djibouti and Eritrea, the ongoing standoff between
Ethiopia and Eritrea, and ongoing tensions between Sudan and South Sudan and within South
Sudan are just a few of these crises(Aleksi 2022).
After September 11 attack US and all its Allies even other Communist allies highly
participated in the horn of Africa to dominate the strategic region.One of the best pretexts and
agenda that they are using is against terrorist, but they are unable to stop the attack of terrorist
in the intended region around the world rather than escalation of war and political crisis,
example Afghanistan.” The Horn of Africa is facing a significant problem as a result of its
new foreign security politics, thus, the Horn runs the prospect of further fragmentation if it is
unable to control the regional interests and expanding involvement of international armed
forces”(Nile,2019).

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3.1.2 Ethiopia's geopolitical position in the Horn of Africa
It is easy to see that Ethiopia is geographically situated in the center of the Horn of Africa
by looking at any map of the continent (Berouk, 2012). “The strategic importance of the
Horn of Africa has been dramatized in recent years by the area's proximity to the Middle
East oil fields and the Indian Ocean trade routes. Thus, the United States has a vital
interest in keeping open the strait of Bab el Mandeb, the port of Djibouti, and the Red Sea
for the free flow of international shipping, especially to North America, Western Europe,
and Israel” (Gérard, 1978). Therefore; the horn of Africa is one of the strategic places
which have been attracting the attention of superpowers around the world and their similar
interest in the region results the rivalry which has been affecting the political and national
interest of the horn. Even not in the center, but also being the member of the horn of
African state is itself the great challenge which has been exposing them in to different
political instability and economic crisis according to Gerard. Therefore, the superpowers
think that, dominating Ethiopia at the center of horn of Africa is the best chance to
dominate the horn to keep their national interest beyond the horn. because Ethiopia is the
country which acted as regional superpower and also serve as the common home and
mother of all Africans with history of independency.

Moreover this, Ethiopia acted the great role in the establishment of AU in Addis Ababa in
1963 and made Addis Ababa acted as the center of AU. In regional cause, Ethiopia acted
great role in the Horn of Africa with its regional institution IGAD to maintain peace and
security in the horn, IGAD has had some success in mediating the peace processes in
Somalia and South Sudan (Getachew,2021). The two agreements are significant
accomplishments in the age of IGAD's expanded mission and serve as an excellent model
of mediation for other sub-regional organizations in other African countries. Thus, having
much responsibility in the horn, this became the serious challenge to external players to
easily control the region. In cause of this the external players directly or indirectly going to
against Ethiopia’s political and national interest in the region.

3.2 Research Approach/ Design

To this study, entitled as, The Super Powers Rivalry in the Horn of Africa and its
Implications on Ethiopia’s Political and National Interest Since 1991: A Comparative
Analysis of the USA, CHINA, AND RUSSIA, the researcher will use descriptive research
design. This research will use descriptive case study that assesses and analyzes the extent and

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dynamics of super power competition among the major super powers in the horn namely,
USA, China and Russia. The main purpose of this study will be to compare and contrast the
nature and degree of competition among the great powers USA, China and Russia in the
region and to analyze how this great power competition affects Ethiopia in terms of national
interest and politics.

3.3 Sampling techniques

The purposive sampling technique will be expected to allow the researcher to interview purposively
selected informants who have experiences in the subject matter. This sampling technique will help
the researcher to interview purposively selected. For the interview, total of seventeen key
informants will be selected. These are three from Djibouti Embassy office, Two from Ministry of
Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, three from Somalia Embassy in Addis Ababa, one from ESAT television
and one from IGAD officer. In addition to this for the sake of data qualification to cross check the
answer of Embassies of superpower with the horn of African Embassies, thus the researcher selected
three informants from US, three from Russia and three from China. The researcher selected other
informants from the superpowers’ Embassy in Addis Ababa, because the research area is connected
with this country. In the horn of Africa there are seven states according to the researcher, but the
researcher used two Embassies officers used as informant, because of the selected Embassies are
ranked from highly sensitive area in the Horn of Africa.

Additionally, the researcher will employ other expert respondents in special fields of international
security and politics, culture, political science, foreign policy and geopolitics working with
international organizations and institutions such as lecturers from Addis Ababa University and also
other post-graduate students that closely deal with Horn of Africa affairs in relation to the topic of
research as indicated in the data collection.

3.4 Data types and Sources

The researcher will use qualitative data, because the research is dominated under descriptive type
and the study will use both primary and secondary sources. Primary data sources mainly focus on
interview in both structured and unstructured to gather information on the area of study, secondary
data sources such as newspapers, documentaries, archival journals, books, International
Government or NGO reports, published and unpublished articles and also documents that are
domestic government, IGAD, AU, and internet services will be used as the sources of the research.

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3.5 Method of Data collection
The researcher will use data both from primary and secondary sources. Primary Data which
the researcher will use mainly interviews and questionaries , the secondary data that the
research will use newspapers such as the New York Times and Washington Post among
others, Aljazeera, scholarly literature, both published and unpublished from sources such as
articles, books, journals, internet, and government speeches on the official website.
Moreover, exclusive information about the research topic will be gathered from
documentaries from media houses such as CNN, BBC, and the Horn TV among others. These
sources enrich the data collection by getting views from government officials of China, the
US and Russia, political analysts and generally reviews of the citizens to make the research
will be more qualify.

3.5.1 Interviews
This technique will be employed to gather qualitative data regarding the study area and obtain
relevant information that cannot be obtained from other sources like books, newspaper, and report.
The, interview will be conduct with officials and experts in Embassy of Somalia, Djibouti, US, China,
Russia, MoF, IGAD, ESAT TV,BBC,CNN workers and also other expert respondents in special fields of
international security and politics, culture, political science, foreign policy and geopolitics working
with international organizations and institutions such as lecturers from Addis Ababa University and
also other post-graduate students that closely deal with Horn of Africa affairs in relation to the topic
of research as indicated in the data collection

3.6.2. Questionnaire-
“A questionnaire is printed questions that is completed by respondents to give his/her opinion”
(Ropa& et.al, 2012).Furthermore, the author suggested it as the main means of collecting
quantitative primary data and enables quantitative data to be collected in a standardized way so
that the data are internally consistent and coherent for analysis. Therefore, questionnaires were
employed under sixteen informants from the intended total population of twenty to collect
quantitative primary data regarding with the causes and consequences of marginalization of the
events. Both open ended and close ended questionnaire were devised to obtain the relevant data
from the sample.

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3.6.3. Semi-structured Interview-

According to Kothari (2004) semi-structured interview is more economical and provides

safe bases for generalization in a descriptive study. Marczyk, De Matteo&Festinger,
(2005) also noticed that interview can produce a wealth of information, can cover any
number of content areas and is relatively inexpensive and efficient way to collect a wide
variety of data. Structured interview is selected as a means of data collection because it is
cheaper; provide quality of information and it will be employ to collect data from officials,
civil servants and residents of the area to get the relevant data for the study.

3 .7 Data analysis and Interpretation

After gathering data from both primary and secondary sources, it will be important to
analyze and interpret the data, thus the researcher will use the descriptive system of data
analytics. According to (Carmen, 2020), Descriptive analytics is the first step in data
analysis in descriptive research. The goal of descriptive analytics is to find out what
happened? Because it makes it easier to evaluate data verbally and contextually, as well as
because the researcher himself is an integral part of the study, the researcher will employ
the qualitative research approach. Qualitative research, which can be found at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qualitative research, is therefore more subjective in nature
and entails studying and reflecting on a research subject's less obvious characteristics, such
as values, attitudes, and perceptions. Understanding, elucidating, exploring, discovering,
and clarifying events, feelings, perceptions, attitudes, values, beliefs, and experiences of a
group of people are the main goals of qualitative research (Kumar, 2011).

3.8 Ethical consideration

This research paper will explore various ethical considerations that a researcher must take
into account. In addition to pledging to respect the privacy of some informants on the
subject matter they considered sensitive for their position, the researcher will politely seek
for the interviewee's "permission to be included in his research." The researcher won't
fabricate or construct findings to satisfy the researcher because some misleading
techniques are not typical when conducting research, thus some audience "swishes." The
researcher will also refrain from misusing the findings for another objective, a particular
set of people, or another benefit. The results will then be shared with the Hawassa
University School of Governance and Development Studies.

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References

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Case Study of South Asia the Emerging Global Order .

Britannica, T. Editors of Encyclopaedia (2022, August 22). Horn of Africa.

Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/place/Horn-of- Africa

Berouk ,M .(2012).Ethiopia's Role and Foreign Policy in the Horn of Africa. Source:
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87-11: Tsehai Publishers

Britannica, T.(2022, August 22). Horn of Africa. Encyclopedia Britannica.

https://www.britannica.com/place/Horn-of-Africa

Bruce, J.(2021).Major Power Rivalry and the Management of

Global Threats.

Carmen,W(2020). Predict the future, understand the past. The four types of data analysis.

Conor M.Savoy and Janina,S.(2022 March).Global Development in Era of Great

Power Competition.

Gabriel,n.(2022).The US risks losing its influence in the Horn of Africa. Here’s how to
get it back. https://www.atlanticcouncil. atlanticist/the- us-risks-losing-its-
influence-in-the-horn-of-africa-heres- how- to-get-it- back/

Gilpin, Robert (1987).. The Political Economy of International Relations (Princeton, NJ:
Princeton University Press)

Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress Updated

November 8, 2022.

Guido L.2021.Geopolitics Meets Local Politics in the Horn of Africa. Dec 2021.
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Karl W. Deutsch and J. David, S.(1964) .Multipolar Power Systems and International
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Kidist,M.(2014,July).The Role of Regional Powers in the Field of Peace and Security: The
Case of Ethiopia.

Kumar, R.(2011). Research Methodology. A Step-by-Step Guide for Beginners. 3rd

Edition. Sage, New Delhi.

Maj ,R.(2021)."Counterbalancing Chinese inflence in the Horn of Africa".

Mathew,V.(1974).The horn of Africa and international

relations.http//dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02929399

Merriam,W(2022).National interest. In Merriam-Webster.com dictionary

frohttps://www.merriamwebster.com/dictionary/national%20interest.

Munro,A.(2020,January22).Superpower.EncyclopediaBritannica.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/superpower

Navari, C. (2016). Hans Morgenthau and the National Interest. Ethics & International
Affairs, 30(1), 47-54. doi:10.1017/S089267941500060X

NEIL ,M.(2019).managing the new external security politics of the horn of africa
region. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute .

Nuno,P.(2014,April).Theory of Unipolar Politics.

https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-
relations/international-relations-and-international-organisations/theory- unipolar-
politics

SAMUEL, R.(2021). Russia and China in Africa: Prospective Partners or

Asymmetric Rivals?

Sankalp ,G. 2022, January 14).Research Fellow. Indian Council of World Affairs.
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Weixing, H. ( 2018). Trump’s China Policy and Its Implications for the “Cold Peace”
across the Taiwan Strait pp. 61-88.

Zach, V.(2019). Toward a Red Sea Forum. The Gulf, the Horn of Africa,& Architecture
for a New Regional Order.

Internet sources
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-superpowers

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-superpowers

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-powerful-
countriesrces

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/power

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54674313

https://ethiopianmonitor.com/2021/12/01/china-stands-against-any-
interference-in-ethiopias-internal-affairs-fm-yi-says

BBC News 24 October 2020,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-

54674313). https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R43838.pdf

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4. RESEARCH PLAN

4.1. Time plan (Schedule)

No. A c t i v i t i e s M o n t h s o f t h e y e a r

Dec J a n F e b Mar April M ay June July

1 Proposal preparation

2 Data

3 Data analysis

4 Preparation of first draft

5 Preparation of final draft

4.2. Budget Plan (Cost Breakdown)

No Reason for expense Unit Number Birr Cent Total

1 P a p e r f o r w r i t i n g Pages 100*5*2 1000 0 0 1000

2 F o o d d a y 200*90 18000 0 0 18000

3 C o p y a n d l a m i n a t e Pages 100*5*3 1500 0 0 1500

4 T r a n s p o r t K m 300*2*2 1200 0 0 1200

5 C o m m u n i c a t i o n Minutes 90*10 9 0 0 0 0 9 0 0

6 E d i t o r Page 120*1 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 0

7 O t h e r e x p e n s e s - - 6000 0 0 6000

8 T o t a l Total - 28,720 0 0 28,720

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5. Reference

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