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Generalized macroscopic traffic model with time delay

Article  in  Nonlinear Dynamics · July 2014

DOI: 10.1007/s11071-014-1293-5

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 Noname manuscript No.
(will be inserted by the editor)
Generalized macroscopic traffic model with time delay
D. Ngoduy∗
Received: date / Accepted: date
Abstract The effect of delay or reaction time on traffic flow
dynamics has been investigated widely in literature using
microscopic traffic models. Recent studies using second or-
der Payne-type models have shown analytically that, on macro-
scopic scale, time delay does not contribute to whether traf-
fic instabilities occur. This paper will attempt to show that it
all depends on the (macroscopic) model used for the analy-
sis that delay does have effect on traffic instabilities or not.
To this end, we will formulate a generalized (linear) stability
condition for a second order macroscopic model with delay
and investigate analytically the effect of such delay on traf-
fic instabilities in some specific macroscopic models. It is
found that the choice of the equilibrium speed function in a
(second order) macroscopic model will determine how delay
affects such (linear) stability condition.
Keywords Macroscopic models, traffic instabilities, linear
analysis, delay
1 Introduction
From the machine point of view, delay occurs due to the time
needed for devices to react to the front stimulus whereas
from the human operation point of view, such delay is de-
fined as a physiological parameter reflecting the period of
time between perceiving a stimulus and performing a rele-
vant action. The effect of delay on traffic flow dynamics has
been investigated both analytically and numerically in traf-
fic flow literature using microscopic traffic models. Particu-
We wish to thank the financial support from the UK research council
EPSRC, grant EP/J002186/1
∗
Corresponding author
Institute for Transport Studies
University of Leeds
E-mail: d.ngoduy@leeds.ac.uk
larly, Bando et al. [1] have found that large delay contributes
significantly to the formation of traffic clusters using linear
analysis and numerical simulations of a so-called optimal
velocity model (OVM). Recently, Treiber et al. have derived
a so-called (microscopic) intelligent driver model (IDM) in
which the finite delay is taken into account [37]. The authors
have shown that delay has significant effects on the tran-
sitions of congested traffic states. Using microscopic data
obtained from the helicopter, Hoogendoorn et al. have pro-
vided an empirical evidence of the effects of delay on traf-
fic stability [9], which also supported the results in [1, 37].
In a similar line, Ngoduy has described analytically the ef-
fect of delay in a mixed (heterogeneous) traffic flow using
a multi-class IDM [20]. General conclusions from the nu-
merical and analytical results using microscopic models in
literature are that delay is often taken the values in order
of one second and increasing delay will destabilize traffic
flow. In contrast to such findings from microscopic model
based analysis, Tampere et al. [29] and Ngoduy [22] have
found that delay does not contribute to whether (linear) traf-
fic instabilities occur. Nevertheless, the linear stability result
does not necessarily means that delay has no effect at all
on stability since the validity of the linear stability result in
[22, 29] is only limited in a specific model which has been
derived from a specific car-following model where the inter-
action is only dependent on the space headway distribution
(e.g. OVM). Including the speed difference in the interaction
could lead to a strong dependence of stability on delay. This
is the topic of this paper.
To contribute to the state-of-the-art in traffic flow mod-
eling, this paper will attempt to formulate the linear stabil-
ity analysis for a general class of second order macroscopic
models with delay. We will show in Section 3 that the choice
of the equilibrium speed function will determine weather or
not delay affects the (linear) traffic instabilities. Section 4
describes some simulation results that show the effects of
2 D. Ngoduy∗

∂r
delay on the evolution of traffic instabilities. Finally, Sec- local density and speed gradients rx = ∂x and Vx = ∂V ∂x ,
tion 5 concludes the paper and discusses the future research. respectively, and the nonlocal traffic density ra and nonlocal
speed Va , which are determined at a location xa in front of
the actual position x: xa = x + d (d > 0).
2 Model equations
– Payne-type model:
In general, there are two types of traffic flow models which ′

can be used for the stability analysis: microscopic models Ve (r) − V V (r) ∂r
A (r, V, ra , Va , rx , Vx ) = + e
and macroscopic models. Microscopic models describe traf- τ 2rτ ∂x
fic flow at high level of detail such as the movement of in- – Nonlocal model:
dividual vehicles [2, 4, 10–12, 33, 37]. Macroscopic mod-
Ve∗ (r, V, ra , Va ) − V 1 ∂P
els represent traffic flow at low level of detail by aggre- A (r, V, ra , Va , rx , Vx ) = −
τ r ∂x
gate traffic variables such as flow, mean speed and density
[3, 5, 6, 8, 15, 17, 23, 24, 26, 28, 30–32, 34, 39–41]. Both where Ve (r) and Ve∗ (.) denotes the equilibrium speed func-
linear and nonlinear stability analysis methods have been ap- tion in either model type and τ denotes the relaxation time.
plied to either microscopic models [10, 13, 14, 20, 27, 35– P denotes the so-called traffic pressure, which is defined as
38, 42] or macroscopic models to study traffic instabilities P = rΘ(r) with Θ being the density dependent speed vari-
′ .
[7, 16, 18, 19, 21, 23, 24, 29, 36, 38]. However, it is also ance. Ve (r) = dV
dr .
e

worth mentioning that stability analysis using microscopic The delay is defined as below:
models usually refers to the string stability of a platoon of – For human-driven vehicles: The delay occurs due to the
vehicles following each other, which is also equivalent to physiological (human) perception which reflect the pe-
the flow stability analysis using macroscopic models. For a riod of time between perceiving a stimulus and perform-
detailed overview of the different model classes as well as ing a relevant action (e.g. acceleration/deceleration due
general stability analysis of each model class, we refer to to traffic situations downstream).
[36]. – For intelligent vehicles: The delay occurs due to the time
In principle, macroscopic models are further classified needed for sensing, computation and actuation in com-
into two classes. The first order class of models is based on puterized devices.
a kinematic wave theory, which is originally developed by
Lighthill and Whitham [15] and independently by Richards The delay is included in the model equation (2) as:
[28], here after LWR for short. In the LWR model, the local ∂V ∂V
seed and flow are assumed a empirical (equilibrium) func- +V = A (r, V, ra , Va , rx , Vx ) |t−T , (3)
∂t ∂x
tion of the density. This assumption implies that the speed where T denotes [Tr , Tv ], in which Tr and Tv are delay with
or flow adapts instantaneously to the density changes so the respect to the density and speed, respectively. By definition
model is not able to replicate traffic instabilities. The sec- in Orosz et al. [25], Tr = Tv > 0 for intelligent vehicles
ond order class of traffic models has been developed in an whereas Tr > 0 and Tv = 0 for human driven vehicles
attempt to replicate such instabilities due to perturbations as- because drivers are aware of their own speed immediately.
sociated with acceleration/deceleration, lane-changes or dis- First order Taylor expansion of equation (3) leads to:
turbances of traffic at an on-and off-ramp bottleneck (where
stop-and-go waves and spontaneous formation of traffic jams ∂V ∂V
+V = A (r, V, ra , Va , rx , Vx )
are observed). Since our aim is to study the effect of delay ∂t ( ∂x )( )
∂A ∂A ∂r ∂r
on traffic instabilities, this paper will focus on mathematical −Tr + +V
equations describing the dynamics of traffic low in second ∂r ∂ra ∂t ∂x
( )( )
order macroscopic models with delay. ∂A ∂A ∂V ∂V
−Tv + +V (4)
Let r = r(x, t) and V = V (x, t) denotes, respectively, ∂V ∂Va ∂t ∂x
the density and the mean speed at location x and time instant To substitute equation (1) to equation (4) to obtain a generic
t. The macroscopic governing equations for the dynamics of speed dynamic equation with delay:
r and V can be written in the form of a system of partial
differential equations below: ∂V ∂V
+V = Ã (r, V, ra , Va , rx , Vx ) (5)
∂r ∂(rV ) ∂t ∂x
+ =0 (1)
∂t ∂x where
∂V ∂V ( )
+V = A (r, V, ra , Va , rx , Vx ) , (2) Tr r ∂A
+ ∂A
∂t ∂x A ∂r ∂ra ∂V
à = ( )+ ( ) ,
where A(.) denotes the acceleration function, which is de- ∂A ∂A ∂A ∂A ∂x
1 + Tv ∂V + ∂Va 1 + Tv ∂V + ∂Va
pendent on the local traffic density r and local speed V , the
Generalized macroscopic traffic model with time delay 3

3 Linear stability analysis It is clear that if Tv = Tr > 0 corresponding to intelli-

gent vehicles, delay does not affect the linear stability. This
The linear stability method considers how small perturba- is consistent with findings from the linear stability analysis
tions around the homogeneous and stationary solutions [r0 , V0 ] of a generic multi-class microscopic model in [20]. How-
(where V0 = Ve (r0 ), Ve (r0 ) is the speed at the station- ever, if Tr > 0 and Tv = 0 corresponding to human-driven
ary solution) influence the stability of traffic flow. To follow vehicles, delay might affect the linear stability. We will ex-
the derivation in Treiber and Kesting [36] for the proposed amine in details such linear stability condition (of human-
model equations with delay (1) and (5), let us consider such driven vehicles) in two specific model types below.
small perturbations around the homogeneous and stationary
– For local Payne-type model:
solutions, denoted by: [δr, δV ]:
Condition (9) becomes:
r = r0 + δr, V = V0 + δV (6) ′ 1
2r02 | Ve |≤ (10)
τ + Tr
Let these perturbations be determined as corresponding co-
Since at a macroscopic level, Tr has an order of sec-
sine functions with frequency λ and wave number ω as shown
ond while τ has an order of ten seconds, that is Tr ≪
below:
τ , which leads to τ +T 1
r
≈ τ1 . Therefore, analytically
δr = δr0 eλt+iωx , δV = δV0 eλt+iωx (7) the delay does not affect significantly the linear stabil-
ity condition in the Payne-type model. This is consistent
where i denotes the imaginary unit, δr0 and δV0 are con- with previous findings in [22, 29]. Note that this stability
stants. result does not necessarily means that the delay has no
By substituting equations (6) and(7) into equations (1) effect at all on stability in the Payne-type model, but the
and (5), performing the linear analysis as detailed in [36] we effect is nonlinear and, therefore, such nonlinear analy-
obtain the following linear stability condition: sis should be left in a separate study.
( ) ( ′ ) ( ′ ) – Nonlocal-Treibr type model:
′ 2
r0 Ve +r0 d Ve ÃV a + Ãr a +r0 Ve ÃV x + Ãr x ≤ 0 The equilibrium speed of the nonlocal Treiber-type model
is defined as:
(8)
Ve∗ (r, ra , V, Va ) =
[ ( )2 ( )]
where α(r) ra hV V − Va
Vmax 1 − B √ ,
Ãr a = (
1
)
∂A
|(r0 ,V0 ) α(rjam ) 1 − ra /rjam Θ
1 + Tv ∂V∂A ∂A
+ ∂V ∂ra
a
where Vmax denotes the free-flow speed, rjam is the jam
1 ∂A density, h denotes the safe-time headway. B(.) is a so-
ÃV a = ( ) |(r0 ,V0 ) called Boltzmann factor, defined as:
∂A ∂A ∂Va
1 + Tv ∂V + ∂V a [ ]
B(z) = 2 zN (z) + (1 + z 2 )E(z)
1 ∂A √ ∫z
Ãr x = ( ) |(r0 ,V0 )
∂A ∂A ∂r with N (z) = 1/ 2πexp(−z 2 /2), E(z) = −∞ N (y)dy.
1 + Tv ∂V + ∂Va x
The reader is referred to [34] for further details. At sta-
1 ∂A tionary and homogeneous solution, we obtain: B(0) = 1
ÃV x = ( ) |(r0 ,V0 )
∂A
1 + Tv ∂V + ∂Va ∂A ∂V x and dB(z)
dz |z=0 = √2π .
( )
Tr r0 ∂A∂r + ∂A
∂ra and α(r) is an empirical speed variance factor, defined
+ ( ) |(r0 ,V0 ) as:
∂A
1 + Tv ∂V + ∂Va ∂A
[ )]
r − rcr
α = 0.008 + 0.03 1 + tanh (11)
To substitute the definition: 0.05rjam
∂A ∂A
′ ∂r + ∂ra where rcr is the critical density.
Ve = − ∂A ∂A It is straightforward to show that:
∂V + ∂Va (√ )
∂Ve∗ 2 (Vmax − V0 ) 1
and rearrange condition (8) we obtain the linear stability =− +1
condition: ∂V V0 πα
( ) [ ( )] √
′ 2 ∂A ∂A ∂Ve∗ 2 (Vmax − V0 ) 1
r0 Ve 1 + (Tv − Tr ) + =
∂V ∂Va ∂Va V0 πα
[ ] ( )
′ ∂A ∂A ′ ∂A ∂A ∂Ve∗ 2 (Vmax − V0 ) rjam
+r0 d Ve + + r0 Ve + ≤ 0 (9) =−
∂Va ∂ra ∂Vx ∂rx ∂ra r0 (rjam − r0 )
4 D. Ngoduy∗

300 T =T (12) can be approximated to:

v r
[ ]
Tv=0,Tr=0.5sec ( ′
)2 ∂P 2d (Vmax − V0 ) r0 Ve
′
rjam V0
250 r0 Ve ≤ − √ −
T =0,T =1sec
πα rjam − r0
Stability function

v r ∂r V0 τ
200 Tv=0,Tr=1.5sec
Stable which returns to the original linear stability condition of
150
the nonlocal model without delay.
Stable
100
Unstable
50
4 Numerical studies
0
10 20 30 40 50
Density (veh/km) In this section, we will numerically illustrate the perfor-
mance of our nonlocal Treiber-type model with delay in
Fig. 1 Linear stability diagram order to support our analytical results found above. To
this end, let us simulate the proposed model with model
parameters given above and delay Tr = 1.0sec. Accord-
Condition (9) becomes: ing to our analytical results (i.e. Figure 1), traffic is un-
( ) [
′ 2 Tr
(
Vmax − V0
)] stable when the initial density is between [11, 40]veh/km
r0 Ve 1+ 1+2 ≤ for Tr = 0sec and [11, 45]veh/km for Tr = 1.0sec.
τ V0
[ ′
] The initial density is chosen as:
∂P 2d (Vmax − V0 ) r0 Ve rjam V0
− √ − (12)
∂r V0 τ πα rjam − r0 r(x, 0) = r0 + δr
[ ( ( )) ( ( ))]
−2 160 5L −2 40 11L
It is clear that the delay might affect the linear stability cosh x− − 0.25cosh x− ,
L 16 L 32
condition in the nonlocal Treiber-type model, depending
on the values of the homogeneous stationary equilibrium where L is the length of the simulated freeway (L =
speed V0 . In the ensuing paper, let us investigate the ef- 18km) and δr = 10veh/km . Let us consider the follow-
fect of delay on traffic instabilities using the nonlocal ing various initial homogeneous and stationary equilib-
Treiber-type model. rium conditions:
For stationary and homogeneous traffic density, the equi- – Free-flow stable condition: r0 = 15veh/km. In this
librium speed function of the nonlocal model is defined situation, traffic is linearly stable according to our
as: analytical condition. Figure 2 definitely shows that
( √ ) traffic is stable in for both situations, with and with-
Ṽ02 2
4Vmax out delay.
Ve (r) = −1 + 1 + , (13)
2Vmax Ṽ02 – Unstable condition: r0 = 30veh/km. According to
Figure 1, this density belongs to the linearly unstable
where regime for both Tr = 0sec and Tr = 1.0sec. Figure
3 shows that traffic is linearly unstable in both sit-
( )√
1 1 1 α(rjam ) uations, with and without delay. More particularly,
Ṽ0 = − , an initial small perturbation has led to stop-and-go
h r rjam α(r)
waves. However, the delay results in larger ampli-
The model parameters used in the rest of this paper are: tude of the stop-and-go waves, measured by the peaks
– Free-flow speed: Vmax = 100km/h. of the density oscillations as shown in Figure 4.
– Jam density: rjam = 140veh/km – Congested stable condition for Tr = 0 and unstable
– Critical density: rcr = 35veh/km condition for Tr = 1.0sec: r0 = 41veh/km. Figure
– Safe-time headway: h = 1.4sec 5 indicates that for this initial density value, traffic is
– Relaxation time: τ = 25sec linearly stable without delay but is linearly unstable
– Delay time: Tr varies between [0, 1.5]sec with delay as the delay has expanded the unstable
Figure 1 describes the linear stability diagram for traffic regime (which conforms to Figure 3).
flow with delay using the nonlocal Treiber-type model. It – Congested stable condition for Tr = 1.0sec: r0 =
can be seen that the (linear) unstable traffic regime is ex- 50veh/km. As this density belongs to the linearly sta-
panded with the increased delay. It is worth mentioning ble regime of our model with Tr = 1.0sec, the per-
that in the linear (free-flow) stable regime, the delay has turbation will die out in time and traffic is linearly
no impact since in this regime V0 ≈ Vmax so condition stable, which is clearly shown in Figure 6.
Generalized macroscopic traffic model with time delay 5

Density time profile (t=300sec)

100
Tr=1.0sec

Density (veh./km)
80 Tr=0sec

60

40

20

0
0 50 100 150
Space (100m)
Tr = 0sec
Fig. 4 Time profile of traffic density, at t = 300sec

Tr = 1.0sec
Fig. 2 Traffic is stable in free-flow condition Tr = 0sec

Tr = 1.0sec
Tr = 0sec
Fig. 5 Traffic is stable without delay and unstable with delay

Tr = 1.0sec
Fig. 3 Instabilities occur in the immediate condition (meta-stable) Tr = 1.0sec

Fig. 6 Traffic is stable with delay

6 D. Ngoduy∗
5 Conclusions
This paper has represented a general macroscopic traffic
model to describe the effects of delay on traffic flow dy-
namics. Based on the linear stability analysis, we have
shown analytically that, on macroscopic scale, it all de-
pends on the (macroscopic) model type delay may con-
tribute to whether traffic (linear) instabilities occur. The
results also conform to the analytical findings using ei-
ther microscopic or macroscopic models in literature.
For example, we found that delay does not affect signifi-
cantly the linear stability condition in a local Payne-type
model, which conforms to previous studies. It is also
worth to mention that the Payne-type model has been
generally derived from a specific car-following model
where the interaction is only dependent on the space
headway distribution. Nevertheless, the stability result
does not necessarily means that delay has no effect at all
on stability in such model type, but the effect is nonlin-
ear. Such nonlinear investigation will be left in the fu-
ture research. However, for a nonlocal model type (such
as the model of Treiber et al. [34]), delay does have a
strong impact on the linear stability condition because
it includes the speed difference in the interaction. Nu-
merical simulation has shown that the proposed delayed
model, on the one hand, is consistent with the other mod-
els in describing the formation and dissipation of traf-
fic congestion and in replicating traffic instabilities (e.g.
stop-and-go waves), and, on the other hand, conforms to
our analytical findings.
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