LOGO

Analysis of the Effect of PPKM Policy on the Spread

of Covid-19 in Bandar Lampung City Through a
Mathematical Modeling Approach

Ramadhani and Aang Nuryaman

Sustainable Development During and Post

Pandemic
Bandarlampung, 11 September 2021
 RESEARCH BACKGROUND
 Mathematical modeling is very useful in the study of the dynamics of an epidemic,
for example the mathematical model of epidemiology which studies and analyzes
the spread, pattern, and determinants of a case. The Covid-19 case is currently
endemic to all countries including Indonesia.
 Indonesia is one of the countries affected by the Covid-19 virus pandemic.
According to data, there have been 4.100.138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and
133.676 people have died from it. The government's effort to prevent the spread
of the COVID-19 virus now is the Implementation of Community Activity
Restrictions (PPKM)
 Therefore, we will simulate the spread of covid-19 in the city of Bandar Lampung
with a mathematical modeling approach, namely the SIR Model and its numerical
solution.
 SIR MODEL

H.E Soper Yuni Yulinda and

Kernack and
(1929) and Hetchote (1976) Ahsar Karim
Kendrick
(2020)
(1927)
Modified model in which the
incidence rate of bilinear disease Modify the existing
Mathematical model
transmission by assuming the model through
of epidemic based
number of S becomes sick additional death case
on SIR
depends on the proportion of I data
Kernack dan Kendrick
mengenalkan mode
 RESEARCH METHODS

 1. This study uses data on Covid-19 cases published by the Bandar

Lampung City Health Office (https://www.dinkeskotabalam.com/ and
https://instagram.com/dinkeskotabandarlampung), consisting of ODP,
PDP, Positive Confirmation Cases including cases in treatment,
recovered, and died. The data used since PPKM took effect, namely 12
June – 1 September 2021
 2. Determine the assumptions on the epidemic SIR model based on
size
 3. Build the SIRD model
 4. Then the SIRD model was analyzed numerically
 5. Furthermore, the parameter estimation in the model is based on the
data by using the nonlinear least squares method (isqnonlin) to get the
basic reproduction number value.
 6. Finally, the results of the parameter estimation can be used to predict
the movement of data on COVID-19 cases in Bandar Lampung City
 MATHEMATICS
MODEL
  time
   Number of healthy individuals (susceptible) to disease
at time
 Number of infected individuals at time
 Number of individuals recovered from infectious
disease at time
 Number of individuals who died after being infected
with the disease at time
 The total population observed, i.e.

 parameters of the rate of disease transmission through

contact between healthy individuals and infected
individuals
 Parameters of recovery rate from infectious disease
 Parameters of death rate after infection
SIMULATION
SIMULATION
SIMULATION
 Conclusion

Based on data on COVID-19 cases in the city of Bandar Lampung

for the period 10 August-10 September using the Python program,
it shows that the implementation of PPKM has a decreasing impact
on positive confirmed cases of Covid-19.
 References
 Hethcote, H.W. 2000. The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM, Rev. 42, No. 599.
 https://www.dinkeskotabalam.com/
 https://instagram.com/dinkeskotabandarlampung?utm_medium=copy_link
 https://bandarlampungkota.bps.go.id/statictable/2015/12/08/19/jumlah-penduduk-kota-ba
ndar-lampung-2010-2020.html
 Yulida, Y. dan Karim, M.A. (2020). Pemodelan Matematika Penyebaran Covid19 di
Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan, Media Bina Ilmiah (MBI), p-ISSN 1978-3787, Eissn 2615-
3505, Vol. 14 (10), Mei 2020.
 https://www.mahkamahagung.go.id/id/pengumuman/4702/surat-edaran-nomor-7-tahun-
2021-tentang-penerapan-pemberlakuan-pembatasan-kegiatan-masyarakat-ppkm-
darurat-di-lingkungan-mahkamah-agung-dan-badan-peradilan-yang-berada-di-
bawahnya-pada-wilayah-jawa-dan-bali
Thank you 