9/15/2022

TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESMENT

REPORT
PROPOSED PETROL SERVICE STATION

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Table of Contents
1.0 THE PROJECT ............................................................................................................................ 2
1.1 Description and location ...........................................................................................................2
2.1 Land use ......................................................................................................................................2
2.1.1 Land Use Strategy ..................................................................................................................3
2.2 Development parking demand ................................................................................................3
2.2.1 General parking demand ......................................................................................................3
3.0 DESIGN REQUIREMENTS ....................................................................................................... 4
4.0 VOLUME TRAFFIC SURVEYS ............................................................................................... 4
4.1 Data collection.......................................................................................................................4
4.2 Survey Methodology and Analyses criteria .....................................................................5
4.3 Traffic Forecasting .....................................................................................................................6
4.3.1 Normal Traffic Volume and Composition ...........................................................................6
4.3.2 Floor Areas and Traffic generation rates .............................................................................9
4.4 Growth Rate.............................................................................................................................9
4.4.1 Future Traffic Generators ..................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................... 14

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1.0 THE PROJECT

1.1. Description and location

The proposed petrol station is located along Karatina-Kutus (B27) road, on plot number
INOI/KARIKO/1284 (LHS) in Kirinyaga County in between Kagumo and Kerugoya town
centres. The proposed petrol station will attract traffic plying along Kutus-Karatina and
Karatina-Kutus.

Figure 1 below shows the location of the proposed area earmarked for the development.
Figure 1: Location map
Proposed Access
An access road to the development by the traffic traversing (B25) road has been proposed as
shown in figure 2 below
Figure 2: Proposed access point to the development

2.0 DEVELOPMENT LAND U SE AND PARKING DEMAND

2.1 Land use

The proposed service station will be comprised of, a 6-legged canopy with 6 fueling
points, 1 kerosene fuelling point, convenient shop, carwash, service centre and a restaurant.

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A breakdown o f the proposed land use by intensity is presented i n able below while the
detailed development scheme Master Plan is provided in Appendix A

1.1.1 2.1.1 Land Use Strategy

Table 1: Land Use
Development land use Unit Quantity
Forecourt (6 Fueling points) Quantity 1

Kerosene Fueling Point Quantity 1

Convenience Store Sqm 120 Sq m
Service Centre Sqm 95 Sq m
Resturant 250 Sq m
Tank Farm Quantity 1

2.2 Development parking demand

2.1.1 2.2.1 General parking demand

Table 2: General Parking Demand
The parking demand for the proposed s e r v i c e station is tabulated i n table below
Land use Parking demand
Forecourt (6 fueling points) 0
Kerosene fueling point 0
Convenient shop 5
Resturant 10
Carwash 3
Service bay 2
Tank farm (truck offloading point) 0

The parking requirements for individuals with disability for each parking location are
determined using the rates defined by the American with Disability Act (ADA) as presented in
the Table 3 below.
Table 3: General Parking Demand
Demand/Supply Requirements
1-26 1
26-50 2
51-75 3
76-100 4
101-150 5
151-200 6
201-300 7

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 301-400 8
401-500 9
501-1000 2 percent of the total
1001 and over 20 plus 1 for each 100 over 1000

Source: ADA, Accessibility Guidelines for Buildings and Facilities (ADAAG, 2002).
Based on the above estimates, the development will require a total of not less than 1 parking
spaces dedicated to people with disabilities for the convenient shop

3.0 DESIGN REQUIREMENTS

In accordance to KENHA requirements, private developments along the major roads which
demand dedicated access road to enter into and leave the facilities need to carry out the traffic
flow data. This data is important in the determination of the road design i.e. need to have storage
lane as integral part of the road at the location of branching off onto the proposed developments
or just to have easy off the main road lanes thus forming deceleration and acceleration lanes.

The above requirements form a basis for the Access road design and is important when one takes
into consideration the comfort, convenience and safety when entering or leaving the premises
developed along the main road. Circumstances where the motor vehicles are required to slow
down prior to turning onto the locations of interests may result into traffic snail up and
eventually lead to traffic jam for about 4-5 minutes only.

The proposed development is expected to have some impact on the existing road network. The
extent of the impact is expected to be experienced at the access to the proposed service station.

The proposed access to the service station to be carried out by the Developer who will ease the
traffic access to the station. The Developer will do acceleration and deceleration lanes (85M and
3.5M wide lane each) to ease access into and out of the station. In addition, the drainage along
the deceleration and acceleration lanes will be done to cater for storm drainage from the station.

4.0 VOLUME TRAFFIC SURVEYS

4.1 Data collection

The Objectives for Collection of Data;
 Determining the nature of traffic in terms of volumes and traffic characteristics
(composition and variation of traffic by day),
 Identifying and quantifying existing and potential traffic generating factors within the
project road area of influence.

The site for the proposed fuel service station is adjoined by Karatina-Kutus Road (B27) which
runs in a north-west-wards towards Kagumo from Kerugoya. Currently, Karatina-Kutus Road
(B27) is a 2 lane, 2 way single carriageway road, which are under Performance Based
Maintenance by the Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA).

Manual traffic data collection survey was undertaken from 6th of September through to 12th
September 2022 for sixteen (16) hours, i.e. from 6:30am – 6:30am at 2 Locations shown in
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Figure 4 below. The counts for less than 24 hours are the grossed up to 24 hours since the night
hours after 22.00 hrs showed negligible traffic. The traffic was converted to 24 hrs using the
24hour/16-hour traffic ratio.
Figure 4: Traffic survey locations

1. Near KPLC Substation Kagumo along (B27) Karatina-Kutus Road;

2. Near the proposed site along (B27) Karatina-Kutus Road

4.2 Survey Methodology and Analyses criteria

Classified volume counts were carried out manually, with enumerators placed at the two traffic
count stations in order to determine the flow of traffic for the North-west bound traffic and the
South-east bound traffic.
Traffic classification was necessary to establish the level of utilization, distribution, and supply
of traffic. Hourly traffic counts, separated for each vehicle class and direction of travel, were
made at each of the census stations. Motorized Transport (MT) traffic was classified according
to the following types;

Table 4: Classification of motorized traffic

Vehicle Category Description
Motor cycles All mopeds and other motor cycle
Cars Includes saloon cars, station wagon passenger cars.

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 Pick-ups, Jeeps, 4WDs, Vans All pick-ups, 4 WD cars and private vans
Matatus and Minibuses All public service mini-buses with seating capacity less than 45
Buses All public service buses with seating capacity more than 45
Light Goods Vehicles (LGV) All trucks with maximum laden weight of 5 tonnes
Medium Goods Vehicles All trucks with 2 axles and laden weight more than 5 tonnes
(MGV)
Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) All trucks with 3 – 7 axles
Other Vehicles Tractors, construction equipment, etc

4.3 Traffic Forecasting

4.3.1 Normal Traffic Volume and Composition

Traffic analysis was undertaken for each census station and the results used to describe traffic
characteristics along the project roads. The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) was calculated as the
average flow for the 7 days in which traffic counts were carried out. The figures obtained were
then corrected for 24-hour flows using 24/16-hour traffic flow factors determined from Future
traffic conditions.

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Table 5: 1.Near KPLC Substation Kagumo along (B27) Karatina-Kutus Road;
Time (Day/Night) 06/09/2022 07/09/2022 08/09/2022 09/09/2022 10/09/2022 11/09/2022 12/09/2022 TOTAL ADT

Vehicle Type Day Day Day Day Day Day Day

Motor cycles & Tuk-Tuk 386 471 404 378 393 409 473 2914 416

Pedal Cycles 28 22 21 20 35 26 24 176 25

Medium Cars/ Saloon car 825 818 844 850 865 849 820 5871 839
(private cars)

Large Cars (4 x 4, Jeeps) 605 546 706 516 531 711 548 4163 595

Matatu (Max. 14 pass.) 500 488 515 429 444 520 490 3386 484

Bus (Max. 50-60 pass.) 35 32 31 32 47 36 34 247 35

Light Truck Rigid (2-axles) 198 205 209 196 211 214 207 1440 206

Medium Truck Rigid (2- 312 324 329 320 335 334 326 2280 326
Axles)

Heavy Truck Rigid (3 or 4 104 90 93 99 114 98 92 690 99

Axles)

Articulated Truck, (3, 4, 5 or 35 44 62 65 80 67 46 399 57

6 Axles)
Others (Tractors, 10 5 2 2 0 2 1 22 3
Construction

TOTAL 3,038 3,045 3,216 2,907 3,055 3,266 3,061 21,588 3,084

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Table 6: 1. Near the proposed site along (B27) Karatina-Kutus Road

Time (Day/Night) 06/09/2022 07/09/2022 08/09/2022 09/09/2022 10/09/2022 11/09/2022 12/09/2022 TOTAL ADT

Vehicle Type Day Day Day Day Day Day Day

Motor cycles & Tuk- 402 351 277 211 364 304 205 2114 302
Tuk
Pedal Cycles 16 14 16 11 15 10 8 90 13

Medium Cars/ Saloon 725 786 773 689 625 706 571 4875 696
car (private cars)
Large Cars (4 x 4, 605 534 630 530 529 605 526 3958.5 566
Jeeps)
Matatu (Max. 14 pass.) 457 426 454 268 538 463 266 2872 410

Bus (Max. 50-60 pass.) 43 19 20 12 20 19 12 145 21

Light Truck Rigid (2- 222 218 256 148 68 270 175 1357 194
axles)
Medium Truck Rigid 367 376 369 156 62 300 238 1868 267
(2-Axles)
Heavy Truck Rigid (3 or 111 101 103 58 39 86 102 600 86
4 Axles)
Articulated Truck, (3, 4, 40 43 44 26 20 40 35 248 35
5 or 6 Axles)
Others (Tractors, 2 3 1 2 0 2 0 10 1
Construction
Equipment)
TOTAL 2,990 2,871 2,943 2,111 2,280 2,805 2,138 18,138 2,591

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 4.3.2 Floor Areas and Traffic generation rates
The proposed Fuel Service Station will be a mixed-use development. Table 7 below shows the
gross floor areas and usage.
Table 7: Proposed floor uses and areas
Floor use Area (M2)
1 Convenience Store 95 Sq m
2 Service Centre 120 Sq m
3 Resturant 250 Sq m
Generated/attracted traffic due to the developments was computed using the proposed Gross
Floor Areas (GFA) in accordance with the recommended traffic generation rates by the Institute
of Transportation Engineers (ITE) of the United States of America. The traffic generation rates in
Table 4 are considered conservative as car ownership and usage rates in the United States of
America are much higher than in Kenya. It is therefore reasonable to expect better actual levels
of service (LOS) if acceptable theoretical LOS is computed using the Highway Capacity Manual
(HCM) approach.

Table 8: Generated Trips

Generated Trips (Vph)
Area
Land use and Morning Time Peak Hour Evening Time Peak Hour
Units (m2)/Ro
Code Pass
oms In Out In Out Pass by
by
Convenience
m2 15 20 5 21 23 5
store 95
Fuel Station m2 320 115 115 13 120 120 10
Restaurant m 2 250 12 15 2 15 12 1
Service Block m2 120 3 3 1 4 3 2
The proposed development is expected to take place from November 2022 to April 2023. The
daily traffic for the two census points was compared and the higher was adopted to represent
the traffic distribution for the whole section.

4.4 Growth Rate

4.4.1 Traffic Growth Rates

4.4.1.1 Introduction
In order to determine the traffic growth rates to be used in forecasting future traffic, data from
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) on national licensed vehicles trend over the years
and economic growth were also used to project traffic.

4.4.1.2 National licensed vehicles growth trends

Data on National vehicles growth trends was obtained from the Kenya National Bureau of
Statistics (KNBS). The extracted KNBS statistics show annual data on licensed vehicles between
year 2006 and 2016. The data is shown in the table 3.4.2.1.

Table 3.4.2.1: Licensed vehicles data

Utilities, Panels, Lorries, Trucks, Buses and

Year Cars Trailers
Vans, Pick-ups and Heavy vans Mini Buses

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 2006 372530 195153 69716 50242 40010
2007 410812 202671 75347 55997 41803
2008 450137 209628 81285 61886 43485
2009 499679 219901 91431 84844 27039
2010 553397 226876 96355 89708 29418
2011 591958 234427 100180 91627 32002
2012 644805 242372 108001 93343 35763
2013 709812 252188 117570 95644 39736
2014 779256 277324 128251 98067 42661
2015 847745 290702 142036 100990 46566
2016 906358 303924 151668 103268 53802
Source: Economic Survey, 2020, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning and
National Development
*Data for the year individual vehicles classes for 2017-2020 not released in report.
The exponential growth rate model was adopted for the analysis of the above data.

The model is given by Yt  Yo 1  i  where;

t

Yt  Traffic volume in year t

Yo  The traffic volume in the base year

i  Growth rate
It is difficult to model the equation in its current form. The equation can be converted to linear
form by taking its natural logarithm as follows:-

LNYt  LNYo  tLN 1  i 

By plotting LNYt against t , the gradient of the line of best fit is equal to LN 1  i  . The rate of
growth can therefore be calculated as:-

gradient (m)  LN 1  i  or e m  1  i  , therefore i  e m  1

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Table 3.4.2.2: Licensed vehicles growth factors
Vehicle Type Growth Rate (%)
Cars 8.95
Utilities, Panels, Vans, Pick-ups 4.40
Lorries, Trucks, and Heavy vans 7.64
Buses and Mini Buses 6.93
Trailers 2.56
Average 6.10

Table 3.4.3.1: Earnings from road traffic

Year Passenger traffic Growth rate (%) Freight traffic Growth rate (%)
2014 313031 - 282695 -
2015 322161 2.92 306884 8.56
2016 331512 2.90 331370 7.98
2017 348,537 5.14 349,740 5.54
2018 390,570 12.059 392,530 12.23
2019 436,320 11.71 440,125 12.13
AAGR (%) 5.79 7.74
Average 6.8%
Source: KNBS, Economic Survey 2020
4.4.1.3 Growth in GDP
Table 3.4.4.1 below shows the Growth in GDP between 2012 and 2019. The growth rate of the
economy has shown upward trend between 2012 and 2018.

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Table 3.4.4.1 Growth in GDP

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GDP Growth 4.6 5.9 5.4 5.7 5.9 4.8 6.3 5.4
(%)

Source: KNBS, Economic Survey 2020

4.4.1.4 Applicable growth rates

The growth trend of licensed vehicles and that of Earnings from road traffic is found to be
consistent with the economic growth rate. The average growth rate of licensed vehicles is 6.1%
while the GDP growth rate in 2019 is 5.4%. The average growth rate of Earnings from road
traffic is 6.8%. Therefore, a mean growth rate of 6.0% is considered reasonable for projecting
future traffic for design. A low traffic growth rate of 5.0% is proposed as it is unlikely that the
economy will experience a decline in the growth rate with the fiscal policies that are currently
in place. A high growth rate of 7.0%, 1% above the mean is also proposed.
4.5 Classification of traffic
4.5.1 Normal Traffic
Normal traffic is that traffic currently using the road, and expected to continue using the road
after being improved. Future growth of this traffic component was defined as the rate pertaining
prior to the road’s improvement.

4.5.2 Diverted Traffic

Diverted Traffic is that traffic that will find the improved road more attractive and convenient
than the one they are currently using. It was noted that there were very low chances of traffic
diverting from other roads to this road since the other roads had been initially upgraded to
bitumen standard. Further, this road traverses a hilly terrain with low design speeds and thus
increased travel time discourages diverted traffic.

4.5.3 Generated Traffic

Generated traffic is the additional vehicle travel that results from the road improvements. It
includes induced and converted motor traffic components. Converted traffic was considered as
that changing its mode of travel from say Rail to Road or non-motorized to motorized. Since the
area is only accessible by road and considering the most of the journeys are locally based, I
considered converted traffic to be insignificant in the analysis.

Induced traffic was considered as that traffic that would be entirely new and never existed before
due to increased accessibility of the area. It was noted that there is a possibility of developments
attracted by the improved condition of the road. These would comprise of market centres,
residential houses, institutions and increased commercial farming activities. From the socio-
economic analysis of the region, I considered generated traffic to constitute 6.0% (Average GDP
growth rate) of the year 2019.

4.6 Future Traffic Calculation

Using average traffic collected in the seven days, a projected traffic (projected ADT) was
calculated as shown below. Projected traffic was considered for the next 10 years.

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An exponential growth of traffic shall be anticipated and estimated using the formula below:
Tn=T0 (1+r)n

Where Tn – Traffic Volume in year n after census

T0 – Traffic Volume for year of census

r – Annual growth rate expressed as a decimal fraction n – Number of Growth year

Table 14: Estimated traffic growth rates for normal traffic

Growth rate
Period Vehicle category
Low Medium High
2018-2019 Motor cycles 6 8 10
Cars 6 8 10
4WD, Vans & Pick-ups 6 8 10
Matatu 5 6.5 9
Bus 5 6.5 9
LGV 4.2 5.6 6.4
MGV 4.2 5.6 6.4
HGV 4.2 5.6 6.4
Trailers 4.2 5.6 6.4
Others 4.2 5.6 6.4
2020-2024 Motor cycles 5.4 7.2 9
Cars 5.4 7.2 9
4WD, Vans & Pick-ups 5.4 7.2 9
Matatu 4.5 5.9 8.1
Bus 4.5 5.9 8.1
LGV 3.78 5.04 5.8
MGV 3.78 5.04 5.8
HGV 3.78 5.04 5.8
Trailers 3.78 5.04 5.8
Others 3.78 5.04 5.8
2025-2034 Motor cycles 4.3 5.8 7.2
Cars 4.3 5.8 7.2
4WD, Vans & Pick-ups 4.3 5.8 7.2
Matatu 3.6 4.7 6.5
Bus 3.6 4.7 6.5
LGV 3.02 4.03 4.6
MGV 3.02 4.03 4.6
HGV 3.02 4.03 4.6
Trailers 3.02 4.03 4.6
Others 3.02 4.03 4.6

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Total traffic in April 2023 when the development is expected to be complete and operational
was computed as the sum of generated and forecasted normal traffic at a 6% growth rate
indicated on the table above between years 2021-2036.
Table 14: Estimated traffic growth rates for normal traffic

Base Traffic
(2022) – (80% of Projected Traffic Projected Traffic
sum traffic for after 10yrs after 15yrs
Vehicle Type both directions (2032) (2037)
on heavier
Motor cycles & Tuk-Tuk station) 416 746 998
Pedal Cycles 25 45 60
Medium Cars/ Saloon car
839 1502 2010
(private cars)
Large Cars (4 x 4, Jeeps) 595 1065 1425
Matatu (Max. 14 pass.) 484 866 1159
Bus (Max. 50-60 pass.) 35 63 85
Light Truck Rigid (2-
206 368 493
axles)
Medium Truck Rigid (2-
326 583 781
Axles)
Heavy Truck Rigid (3 or 4
99 177 236
Axles)
Articulated Truck, (3, 4,
57 102 137
5 or 6 Axles)
Others (Tractors,
3 6 8
Construction
Equipment)
TOTAL 3,084 5,523 7,391

5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Based on the study, the average daily traffic for the base year (2022) is 3,084, while the year
10 (2032) and year 15 (2037) are 5,523 and 7,391 respectively.

After the construction, the attracted/generated traffic proposed fuelling station will be marginal
and this will not affect the operating levels of service of the Karatina-Kutus (B27) road. However,
for safe and effective manoeuvrability of the attracted/generated trips to the proposed petrol
station development proper road marking of the acceleration and deceleration lanes and with
channelization islands to separate lanes for easy manoeuvrability at the intersections between
Karatina-Kutus (B27) road and the acceleration and deceleration lanes.

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It is concluded that the exiting and merging traffic can be well accommodated and served by the
provided acceleration and deceleration lanes.

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