Economic Outlook

Converging Higher

May 2021

Jan Hatzius Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1 212-902-0394 jan.hatzius@gs.com

Chief Economist

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For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
 Global GDP: GS vs. Consensus

Real GDP Growth

Percent Change 2021 (f) 2022 (f)
2019 2020
yoy GS Consensus GS Consensus
US 2.2 -3.5 7.0 6.3 5.1 4.0
Euro Area 1.3 -6.7 4.9 4.1 4.5 4.1
Germany 0.6 -5.1 3.6 3.3 4.7 4.0
France 1.5 -8.2 6.8 5.4 4.4 4.0
Italy 0.3 -8.9 5.4 4.2 4.5 4.0
Spain 2.0 -10.8 7.2 5.7 6.3 5.5
Japan 0.3 -4.8 2.5 2.9 3.3 2.0
UK 1.4 -9.8 7.8 5.5 5.5 5.5
Canada 1.9 -5.4 6.7 6.0 4.2 4.0
China 6.0 2.3 8.5 8.5 5.7 5.5
India 4.8 -6.9 9.7 9.2 8.7 7.0
Brazil 1.4 -4.1 4.0 3.4 2.8 2.4
Russia 1.3 -3.0 4.5 3.2 3.0 2.5
World 2.9 -3.3 6.6 5.9 5.0 4.4
Note: All forecasts calculated on calendar year basis. 2020 are realized or GS forecasts when
not yet released. IMF forecasts used for India 2022 consensus when quarters not available in
Bloomberg.

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 Approaching “Herd Immunity”

% US %
100 100

Vaccinated Only

80 Vaccinated and Infected 80

Infected Only

Today
60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 A Big Easing in Financial Conditions

FCI GS US Financial Conditions Index FCI

105 105

104 104
+/- 2 Standard Deviations
103 103
FCI
102 102

101 101

100 100

99 99

98 98

97 97

96 96

95 95
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
The US FCI weights long rates (45.1%), corporate spreads (39.6%), the trade-weighted exchange rate (6.0%), equity prices (4.9%) and short term rates (4.4%)

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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Massive Fiscal Support

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 Adding Up the Growth Impulses

Percent Effect on Real GDP Level Relative to Q4 2020 Percent

8 8

4 4

0 0

Reopening Fiscal Support

Pent-up Savings Easy Financial Conditions
Total
-4 -4
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 2021 2022

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 We Expect Only Modest Overheating

% Potential US Output Gap Forecast % Potential

GDP GDP
2 2

1 1

0 0

-1 -1

-2 -2

-3 -3

-4 -4

-5 -5

-6 -6
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 2021 2022

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 We Are Not Yet Close to Full Employment

% US Prime Age Employment-Population Ratio %

82 82

80 80

78 78

76 76

74 74

72 72

70 70

68 68
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 Underlying Inflation Remains Subdued

% Change, year ago % Change, year ago

Measures of US Underlying Inflation
forecasts
2.5 2.5

1pp expected gap in

April 2021
2.0 2.0

1.5 1.5

1.0 1.0

GS Trimmed Core Assuming Sequential Inflation Same as Core PCE

0.5 0.5
PCE ex. Food and Energy

0.0 0.0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 Sustained 2%+ Inflation Will Take a While to Reach

Percent change, year ago Percent change, year ago

2.50 Core PCE Inflation 2.50

2.25 Assumed Threshold for First Fed Rate Hike 2.25

2.00 2.00

1.75 1.75

1.50 1.50

1.25 1.25

1.00 1.00

0.75 0.75
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Note: Dotted lines indicate GS forecast.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 Our Funds Rate Forecast Is Below Market Pricing

Percent Fed Funds Rate Percent

1.4 1.4
Market Pricing
1.2 GS Weighted Average 1.2

GS Baseline
1.0 1.0

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0.0 0.0
Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 Vaccination—Different Timelines, Same Endpoint

% population Baseline Vaccination Timeline for First Dose % population

80 80

UK
70 70
US
EU (Big Four)
60 Canada 60
Australia
50 Japan 50

40 40

30 30

20 20
Proxy for vulnerable groups
10 10

0 0

Jul-21
May-21
Dec-20

Mar-21

Aug-21

Sep-21
Feb-21
Jan-21

Jun-21
Apr-21

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 Euro Area Is Catching Up with US on Vaccination

% %
Daily Vaccine Doses Administered (7DMA)
1.2 1.2

1.0 US 1.0
Euro Area (Big Four)

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0.0 0.0
21-Dec 11-Jan 1-Feb 22-Feb 15-Mar 5-Apr 26-Apr 17-May

Source: Our World in Data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 Peak Growth: US in Q2, EA in Q3, Japan in Q4

Quarter-over-Quarter, annual rate Quarter-over-Quarter, annual rate

GDP Growth, GS Forecast

15 15

10 US Euro Area Japan 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5
Forecasts

-10 -10
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2021 2022

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 Dovish Views on the Major Central Banks

% US % % Euro Area %
one 20bp rate hike
1.4 five 25bp rate hikes 1.4 -0.2 -0.2
OIS Market-Implied
1.2 GS 1.2
four 25bp rate hikes
-0.3 OIS Market-Implied GS -0.3
1.0 1.0
three 25bp rate hikes
0.8 0.8 one 10bp rate hike
-0.4 -0.4
two 25bp rate hikes
0.6 0.6

0.4 one 25bp rate hike 0.4 -0.5 -0.5

0.2 0.2
-0.6 -0.6
0.0 0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 2022 2023 2024
2021 2022 2023 2024

Tapering hints $15bn/ Taking stock PEPP PEPP full APP

PEPP
purchases
meeting of tapering purchases rise purchases envelope
tapering diminish used stop
to 20bn €/wk
% Japan % % UK %
0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8
two 25bp rate hikes
one 25bp rate hike OIS Market-Implied

0.6 GS 0.6
OIS Market-Implied
0.1 0.1 one 25bp rate hike
GS
0.4 0.4

0.0 0.0 one 15bp rate hike

0.2 0.2

-0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 2022 2023 2024

Expect BoE
-0.2 -0.2 clarification to shrink
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 balance sheet before
2021 2022 2023 2024 liftoff

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 But We Expect Longer-term Yields to Rise

Percent Percent
US 5-Year TIPS Yield 5 Years Forward
4 4

3 3

2 2

2015-2019 Average

1 1

0 0

-1 -1
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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 Disclosure Appendix
May 6, 2021

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure
Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

17
 Disclosure Appendix

Reg AC
I, Jan Hatzius, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm's
business or client relationships
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division.

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 Disclosure Appendix

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