Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography

ISSN: 0016-7223 (Print) 1903-2471 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rdgs20

Artificial neural networks and geostatistical

models for housing valuations in urban residential
areas

M. Carmen Morillo Balsera, Sandra Martínez-Cuevas, Iñigo Molina Sánchez,

César García-Aranda & M. Estibaliz Martinez Izquierdo

To cite this article: M. Carmen Morillo Balsera, Sandra Martínez-Cuevas, Iñigo Molina Sánchez,
César García-Aranda & M. Estibaliz Martinez Izquierdo (2018): Artificial neural networks and
geostatistical models for housing valuations in urban residential areas, Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish
Journal of Geography, DOI: 10.1080/00167223.2018.1498364

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/00167223.2018.1498364

Published online: 30 Jul 2018.

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GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIFT-DANISH JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY
https://doi.org/10.1080/00167223.2018.1498364

NOTE

Artificial neural networks and geostatistical models for housing valuations in

urban residential areas
M. Carmen Morillo Balsera a, Sandra Martínez-Cuevasa, Iñigo Molina Sáncheza, César García-Arandaa
and M. Estibaliz Martinez Izquierdob
a
ETSI Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Madrid, Spain; bETSI Informáticos, Universidad
Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Madrid, Spain

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Property valuation studies often use classical statistics techniques. Among these techniques, the Received 20 October 2017
Artificial Neural Networks are the most applied, overcoming the inflexibility and the linearity of Accepted 5 July 2018
the hedonic models. Other researchers have used Geostatistics techniques, specifically the KEYWORDS
Kriging Method, for interpreting spatial-temporal variability and to predict housing unit prices. Artificial Neural Networks;
The innovation of this study is to highlight how the Kriging Method can help to better under- ordinary Kriging; multi-layer
stand the urban environment, improving the results obtained by classical statistics. This study perceptron; hedonic models;
presents two different methods that share the general objective of extracting information cadastral value
regarding a city’s housing from datasets. The procedures applied are Ordinary Kriging
(Geostatistics) and Multi-Layer Perceptron algorithm (Artificial Neural Networks). These methods
were used to predict housing unit prices in the municipality of Pozuelo de Alarcon (Madrid). The
implementation of both methods provides us with the urban characteristics of the study area and
the most significant variables related to price. The main conclusion is that the Ordinary Kriging
models and the Neural Networks models, applied to predicting housing unit prices are necessary
methodologies to improve the information obtained in classical statistical techniques.

Abbreviations: ANN: Artificial Neural Networks; OK: ordinary Kriging; MLP: multi-layer perceptron

1. Introduction This spatial estimate procedure has been used in

countless applications. Some examples include the fol-
One of the most important utilities that Geographic
lowing authors: Xie et al. (2012) in agronomy, Karanlık,
Information Systems (GIS) offer is Spatial Analysis, espe-
Ağca, and Yalçın (2011) in geology, Wang, Christakos,
cially through interpolating different types of variables.
and Hu (2009) in geoscience among others. In Spain, it
Based on the evolution of geospatial technologies, GIS
has been used to estimate housing prices in the cities
incorporates spatial statistics algorithms, which have
of Granada (Olmo, 1994), Albacete (Gámez, Montero, &
been used to help estimate the price of housing in a
García, 2000) and for rural housing in Murcia (Morillo,
given area, and which require information about the
García-Cepeda, Martínez-Cuevas, Molina, & García-
structure of the existing spatial correlation between
Aranda, 2016), among others.
urban properties prices in the area of interest. This
The second methodology used in this study is an
correlation is apparently one characteristic of the
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) technique, namely the
urban property prices (Guigou, 1982; Olmo, 1994;
“Multilayer Perceptron” (MLP) algorithm, which has
Roca, 1988).
been one of the conventional ways of processing such
Consequently, the present study used Kriging, which
data. An ANN may be defined as a set of highly inter-
allows us to estimate housing prices in any geographi-
connected information processing units that are cap-
cal area for which the “housing price” process has been
able of learning based on the entered information
obtained based on the spatial autocorrelation of prices.
(Pérez & Santín, 2008). At present, one of the most
This procedure was applied to a geographical area in
frequently used problem-solving architectures in ANN
Spain located to the west of the metropolitan city
is the MLP. This is mainly thanks to the multilayer
centre of Madrid, in the municipality of Pozuelo de
perceptron’s capacity as a universal approximator, as
Alarcon.

CONTACT M. Carmen Morillo Balsera mariadelcarmen.morillo@upm.es ETSI Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid,
Campus Sur de la UPM, Km 7.5 de la Autovía de, Madrid, Valencia, Spain
© 2018 The Royal Danish Geographical Society
2 M. C. MORILLO BALSERA ET AL.
well as the fact that it is easy to use and has many
applications (Pérez, 2017). The ANNs belong to the field
of Artificial Intelligence (AI), understood as a set of
algorithms whose purpose is to imitate human reason-
ing through a deductive logic or manipulation of sym-
bols (Martín & Sanz, 2006).
Artificial Intelligence began to be applied in real
estate valuation in the early nineties. Since then,
numerous experiences have emerged and the creation
of new models is increasing. Real estate valuation
develop by IA has been done by Kontrimas and
Verikas (2011) in Lithuania, Daşkiran (2015) in Turkey
and Tabales, Carmona, and Caridad (2017) in Córdoba
(Spain), among others.
2. Materials and methods
The methodology presented in this study has two dis-
tinct parts. The first involves using geostatistical proce-
dures to study fluctuations in housing prices, while the
second consists in adapting a MLP model to estimate
unit prices for housing units based on the input vari-
ables and identifies which variables are most important
in determining these prices.
2.1. Study area
The study area from which data were obtained is in the
municipality Pozuelo de Alarcon, which is part of the
Community of Madrid and is located to the west of the
Figure 1. a. Map indicating the location of Pozuelo de Alarcon within the Community of Madrid; 1b. Detailed map of the
distribution of single-family homes in Pozuelo de Alarcon.
metropolitan area of its capital (Figure 1(a)). Pozuelo de
Alarcon has an extension of a 43.2 km2 and a popula-
tion of 84,989 inhabitants, according to data supplied in
2016 by the National Institute of Statistics. The munici-
pality has 12,298 registered plots according to the
online cadaster (SEC, 2016, initials in Spanish), and
90,033 single-family homes (the SEC is a telematic
point of contact for the cadaster which allows users to
make queries and download open data). As indicated in
Figure 1(b), most single-family housing units are
located outside the town centre. The most isolated or
semi-detached units are in gated communities located
on the outskirts of the municipality. Most row and
closed block units are located in or near the town
centre.
2.2. Database
This study includes two types of single-family housing
units: a) isolated or semidetached buildings, and b) row
or closed block buildings, as the two typologies have
different values. Figure 2 illustrates the centroids. The
database was created using open data from the SEC.
Each housing unit has a single cadastral reference that
coincides with the plot to which it belongs.
The attributes (intrinsic characteristics of the housing
units) used in this study are defined below:
● Surface Area: Residential floor area of the housing
unit in m2.

Figure 2. Rendering of projected UTM data (ETRS89, zone 30) with the 100 m delimitation.
Table 1. Population frequencies referred to the qualitative
variable single-family housing.
Variables Categories Frequencies
Class Single-family housing 9033
Modality (1) Isolated or semi-detached 5641
(2) Row or closed block 3391
● Modality: Urban single-family residential housing
units. The modality can be one of two categories:
isolated or semi-detached, vs. row or closed block.
Table 1 shows the population frequencies referred
to the qualitative variable single-family housing.
● Year of Construction: Year in which the construc-
tion of the housing unit was completed and the
first occupancy license obtained.
● Category: Refers to the quality of the building’s
construction, on a scale of 1 to 9. One (1) repre-
sents the best possible quality for a housing unit,
while nine (9) is the worst. This attribute has been
defined according to the guidelines established by
the General Directorate of the Cadaster, which
GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIFT-DANISH JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY 3
groups housing units into 9 categories (1 to 9) to
estimate the cost of construction in the cadaster.
Percentage
62.5%
An exploratory analysis has been performed using the
37.5% available variables of numerical type such as unit price,
age and surface area. In this scenario, quantitative and
qualitative analyses have been performed, which are
aimed to know the statistical distribution of the differ-
ent variables. Also, the distribution of the data concern-
ing the mean is very heterogeneous, that is the data are
not clustered around the mean. Regarding the variable
“Surface area”, a mean value 296.5 m2 is observed with
50% of single-family housing areas less than or equal to
214 m2. Finally, in the case of variable “Age (year of
construction)”, its mean value matches with the year
1982, the data is left-skewed and leptokurtic distribu-
ted. It is uniformly distributed. Generally, it is concluded
that none of the variables follows a normal distribution.
The plots in the study area were represented using the
“Projected Coordinate System: ETRS89_UTM_zone_30N”
(Figure 2). To avoid border errors, when applying the
4 M. C. MORILLO BALSERA ET AL.
Ordinary Kriging method, the boundary of housing devel-
opments was set at 100 m inside the limit. Furthermore,
the typology of each of the variables was also considered
when building the models.
2.3 Methods
The methodology presented in this study has two dis-
tinct parts. The first involves using geostatistical proce-
dures to study fluctuations in housing prices, while the
second consists of adapting a MLP model to estimate
unit prices for housing units based on the input vari-
ables and identify which variables are most important
in determining these prices.
2.3.1 Geostatistical analysis of fluctuations in
housing prices
The basic tool used in geostatistics is the semivario-
gram (or simply variogram). The semivariogram is a
second-order moment that makes it possible to analyse
the spatial continuity of a given variable, Z. If the vari-
able is the unit price of housing units, the variogram
can be used to express the spatial dependence of prices
for variables separated by different distances (Chica-
Olmo, Cano, & Chica-Olmo, 2007).
The Ordinary Kriging (OK) method is a spatial interpo-
lation to establish the values of the variable indicated
where not sampled. This estimation process is based on
determining the covariances (variograms) for data at the
observation points, which means it considers the spatial
correlation between the data. According to Krige (1951),
the method is a multiple spatial regression based on the
following algorithm (Londoño & Valdés, 2012).
X
n
^ 0Þ ¼
ZðS λi ZðSi Þi ¼ 1; . . . ; n
i¼1
where:
Zˆ (S0): is the datum to be estimated.
λ i: are the weights.
Z(Si): are the data based on which the estimate is to
be made.
This algorithm indicates the prediction of a point, given
the value of the nearest points. After selecting the most
appropriate theoretical variogram to fit the available data
represented in the experimental semivariogram, it is then
necessary to validate the fit because if the fit is defective,
the results obtained from subsequent Kriging would be
less than optimal. The procedure most commonly used to
validate the fit is called cross-validation.
2.3.2 Artificial Neural Networks
Traditional Hedonic Models are not exempt from limita-
tions; among the problems they may present is the
multicollinearity between the predetermined variables
of the model because of the intrinsic characteristics of
the variables. Moreover, as far as the analysis of random
perturbations is concerned, estimating with cross-sec-
tional data implies the possible presence of heterosce-
dasticity (Caridad Y Ocerín, Nuñez-Tabales, & Ceular
Villamandos, 2008).
An alternative, to the econometric methods of
Hedonic modelling are the Artificial Neural Networks.
A Network of Artificial Neurons is a system of intercon-
nection of neurons (nodes) that collaborate with each
other to produce an exit stimulus. It is inspired by the
way the nervous system works. The second method
applied, in this study, is based on Artificial Neural
Networks, specifically the Multilayer Perceptron algo-
rithm (MLP). The disadvantage with traditional
Hedonic Methods is that it has a predictive function
for a specific domain since the network has been
trained for that domain.
It is important to remark that we do not use the
lineal regression (LR). The main decision was because
the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of MLP (RMSE =26.4
€/m2) was minor than LR (RMSE =60.9 €/m2). The MLP is
the most commonly used structure, according to
Freeman and Skapura (1993), Haykin (1999), García-
Rubio (2004), Peterson and Flanagan (2009), and Park
and Bae (2015), as it provides the best results in this
type of analysis (Figure 3).
Every neural model requires a propagation rule (acti-
vation function) that combines the outputs from each
neuron with the corresponding weights established by
the connection pattern, thus specifying the relative
value of the inputs received from each neuron
(Caridad Y Ocerín & Ceular Villamandos, 2001).
The multilayer perceptron is defined as a function of
the input and output variables of a given network. This
relationship is determined by propagating the input
variable values forward. To this end, each neuron in
the network processes the information received by its
inputs and produces a response or activation that is
propagated, through corresponding connections, to the
neurons in the following layer.
The activation function “relates” the weighted
sum of units of a layer with the values of units in
the hidden layer (in our study, the activation func-
tion of the hidden layer is the hyperbolic tangent)
and output (the activation function of the output
layer is the identity). There is a node called “BIAS”,

Figure 3. Function of a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network.
it is the component that represents the difference
between the values of the dependent variable to be
predicted and the model to be created.
To view the theoretical development of the opera-
tion of a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, in the
simplest case, see the article (Caridad Y Ocerín et al.,
2008, p. 32).
The model was validated using cross-validation. The
model’s efficiency is realized in the validation or verifi-
cation data subset.
3. Results
In this section, predictive models derived from
Geostatistics (OK) and Artificial Neural Networks (MLP)
methods, are computed. Additionally, it is also verified
how both procedures could improve the valuation of
housing in urban residential areas.
Figure 4. Adjusted theoretical exponential variogram.
GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIFT-DANISH JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY 5
We have calculated the predictive prices with MLP
and we obtained results very similar to the originally
values (only in the 0.45% of the cases the difference
was higher than 70 €/m2). Also, we did not obtain a
significant difference in the spatial interpolation (OK)
values calculated with the predictive prices get with
MLP or with the original prices, so it was decided to
study the geographical environment with the original
prices.
3.1 Geostatistical analysis
A structural analysis of unitary prices has been carried
out using a geostatistical analysis based in Kriging
strategy. In this work, by modifying the number of
lags (distance between housing units) and constructing
several variograms in different directions/orientations, it
was concluded that the direction did not exhibit any
6 M. C. MORILLO BALSERA ET AL.
influence, i.e. there is no anisotropy. The values defining
this variogram (Figure 4) are:
● Nugget, related to the amount of short range
variability in the data. In this case, it is the random
proportion of unit prices variable, which repre-
sents 12.20% of the total variability of this variable.
● Partial Sill represents the part of the spatial depen-
dence compared to the total variance. In this case,
this means that 87.8% of the total variability of
unit prices which is explained by the spatial auto-
correlation component.
● Range, the distance after which data are no longer
correlated. In this case, it is equal to 188.3 m,
meaning that there is spatial price interdepen-
dence up to an average distance of 188.3 m
between dwellings.
Figure 5 shows the result of interpolation using OK
and Figure 6 shows the Prediction Standard Error Map,
where the variability of the predicted values is analysed.
Figure 5. Interpolation of unit prices through OK.
It is observed that in the higher values, the variability is
greater since it moves away from the sampling points.
To validate the model, a cross-validation was per-
formed. It can be seen in Figure 5 how the zones
corresponding to the house prices are distributed in
Pozuelo de Alarcon (Madrid). The area with the highest
prices, from 725 Є/m2 to 1300 Є/m2, corresponds to a
private residential area with isolated or detached
houses with large plots. This settlement is of recent
construction and the housing is of high quality. It is
located next to a business park, adjacent to a sport area
and has direct access to the main communication
routes. These residential areas are characterized by
large backyards and gardens with free open spaces.
Prices, between 560 Є/m2 and 725 Є/m2, also corre-
spond to isolated single-family housing, but with smal-
ler parcels. The population density is higher, and they
do not have many services, although this category has
very good communication with the main road infra-
structure. The lowest prices, <560 Є/m2, are in the
urban area of Pozuelo de Alarcon. In these areas the

Figure 6. Standard error map of the prediction.
buildings are older and the typology that predominates
is a single-family dwelling in a closed block. The esti-
mated values should be as close as possible to the
values observed. To assess this fact, the mean square
error is calculated and to evaluate the variability of the
prediction, the standardized mean square error that
must approach 1 is applied.
In this study, the mean of the errors is close to zero,
the mean square error is approximately 98 €/m2 and
the mean square of the standardized errors is close to 1.
These conditions conclude that the adjustment of the
variogram has been appropriated.
3.2 Artificial Neural Networks (MLP)
In the design of the neural network architecture, several
combinations were considered: number of hidden
layers, number of neurons per layer, activation func-
tions and training algorithm.
GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIFT-DANISH JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY 7
The MLP model applied in this study has the
following characteristics. The input layer, which
represents the independent or predictor variables,
is formed by the following neurons: “modality”
(with two categories, two nodes or neurons are
needed), “age”, “X coordinates”, “Y coordinates”,
“area” and “quality” (with nine categories, nine
nodes or neurons are needed). The hidden layer,
which corresponds to the weights assigned to each
of the input variables to build the model, is adapted
according to a Hyperbolic Tangent function (activa-
tion function). As output layer, which corresponds to
the response variable or dependent variable “unit
Price”, the activation function is the identity. The
learning of the network is performed by the mathe-
matical method “Gradient descent”.
As an error function we chose the Sum of squares of
the errors. The aim is to build a model that has the best
predictive capacity, where the variable to be predicted
is the housing unit price. To guarantee the generalizing
8 M. C. MORILLO BALSERA ET AL.

Table 2. Selected MLP features.
Architecture
Neurons in the input layer
Neurons in the hidden layer
Neurons in the output layer
Number of weights
Activation function (hidden layer)
Activation function (output layer)
Function error
The details of the selected MLP can be seen summar-
MLP Features ized in Table 2 and Figure 7.
15:15–7:1 The input layer generates the hidden layer and the
15
7 hidden layer generates the output layer, hence the
1 need for synaptic weights. The synaptic weights to
120(112 + 8)
Hyperbolic Tangent move from the input layer to the hidden layer would
Identity function indicate the degree of participation of each of the
Sum of squares of the errors
variables at the time of generating the hidden layer.
Next, we proceed to observe the most relevant vari-
able, a sampling process with different value combina-
tions has been carried out. The delivered results show
that the most important variable is the predictor vari-
able “housing quality” with 43%, followed by “age” with
35%, “area” with 18%, “modality” with 3%, and finally,
geographical coordinates with 1%. In this model, the
root mean square error (RMSE) is approximately
26.41 €/m2.

4. Discussion
It might be, that the decision to take the model as
isotropic in the global housing trend unit price is, in
principle, not justified and debatable. Therefore, it is
considered important to clarify this situation, because
the anisotropy in the model would affect spatial con-
tinuity and modify the proposed model. The justifica-
tion for the isotropic model is provided below.
Figure 8 shows the evolution of prices in the study
area according to the geographical coordinates. The
slight anisotropy observed in the global trends of
unit prices, justify this decision, as an experimental
omnidirectional variogram is reached, which is in fact
independent of the direction.
The slight anisotropy of Figure 8 does not significantly
influence an improvement of the OK model. When com-
paring these values with those obtained with the OK
model without anisotropy (Table 3), it can be concluded
that the RMSE has practically identical values in the two
models. In conclusion, it is perfectly justified for this
research the decision to take the model as isotropic in
the global trends of the housing unit prices.
Figure 7. Perceptron multilayer neural network graph.

capacity of the network, the set of observations of the
sample has been randomly divided into two subsets:
● The training (to create the model) with a total of
2750 records (accounting for 70% of the sample).
● The test (to evaluate the model) which contains
6282 records.
5. Conclusions
The most important conclusion is that both the
Ordinary Kriging models and the Neural Networks mod-
els, applied to the prediction of dwellings unit prices in
the municipality of Pozuelo de Alarcon (Madrid), are
required to understand the housing price valuations.
The Neural Network Methods (Multilayer Perceptron)
of classic treatment have in this investigation provided:

Figure 8. Global trends of housing unit prices.
Table 3. Cross-validation for the OK considering without aniso-
tropy and with anisotropy.
ORDINARY KRIGING
Cross-validation Without anisotropy With anisotropy
Samples 9033 9033
Mean Errors 0.2 0.3
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) 98.1 98.4
Root Mean Square Standardized 1.1 1.1
● Higher precision in the prediction of unit prices. In
this case it has had 98% precision.
● The model identifies the variables that most
influence the housing price. In this application
the variables have been quality of construction
and age.
● The implemented model is useful for price predic-
tions in future developments of residential areas.
Ordinary Kriging models have completed this study
mainly in:
● Visual information on unit prices, highlighting the
higher and lower price of housing groups (Figure 5).
● The autocorrelation in the price of housing until a
maximum distance near to 188.3 m, are obtained
from the variographic analysis. At a greater dis-
tance, Tobler’s geographical law, which states
“everything is related to everything else, but near
things are more related than distant thing” (Tobler,
1970), is no longer fulfilled. Also, 87.8% of the total
variability of unit prices is explained by the spatial
autocorrelation component.
GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIFT-DANISH JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY 9
● Prioritization of the main features that influence
housing prices. These have been age and quality.
Buildings with higher qualities and lower age,
obviously, had higher prices than the remaining,
both for isolated houses and closed block.
● Minimize the number of parameters to derive the
areas of value.
● These Kriging Methods, as has been shown, pro-
vide homogeneous areas for evaluation purposes.
This type of studies is very useful for the develop-
ment of new urban plans, since it is possible to
identify urban variables (urban morphology, equip-
ment, infrastructure, etc.) that may be related to the
price. This is particularly interesting when obtaining
a spatial distribution of dwelling prices in new urban
growth areas. Further research should be carried out
identifying which of the urban variables are statisti-
cally significant in relation to price. Subsequently,
with regard to the housing unit prices, to improve
the hedonic models, it is recommended, as has been
verified in this research, the use of both techniques
since they provide an improved and more efficient
model in this type of analysis.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
ORCID
M. Carmen Morillo Balsera http://orcid.org/0000-0002-
0788-8394
10 M. C. MORILLO BALSERA ET AL.
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