Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250

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Journal of Cleaner Production

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro

Comparative analysis on the socioeconomic drivers of industrial air-

pollutant emissions between Japan and China: Insights for the further-
abatement period based on the LMDI method
Miao Chang a, *, Ji Zheng a, Yukiko Inoue b, Xin Tian c, d, **, Qing Chen a, e, Tiantian Gan a
a
School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
b
Ministry of the Environment, Japan, Tokyo, 1008975, Japan
c
School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
d
State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
e
School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Japan has achieved the decoupling of economic growth from air-pollutant emissions since the rapid
Received 28 February 2017 decrease in air-pollutant emissions in the 1970s and the further-abatement period. Air-pollutant emis-
Received in revised form sions also decreased in China recently. We analyzed the factors driving the changes in air-pollutant
21 January 2018
emission, which enabled us to identify each factor's contribution and compare the further-abatement
Accepted 11 February 2018
Available online 27 March 2018
period in Japan with the primary reduction stage in China. This study performed the Logarithmic
Mean Divisia Index analysis to decompose the industrial-emission changes (SO2 and NOx) in Japan and
China into the socioeconomic factors that drive these changes. Results showed that changes in these
Keywords:
Decoupling
factors, especially energy intensity and economic level, contributed differently to the emission reduction
Industrial air pollution in Japan and China because the two countries differed in emission-reduction periods. The decline in
Japan and China emission coefficient, measured by emissions per unit of energy consumption, was the most important
Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index contributor to emission reduction in Japan. The other factors did not exert considerable influence.
SO2 However, energy intensity decrease in China significantly contributed to emission reduction besides
NOx emission coefficient, and economic growth had a substantial negative impact on emission reduction.
Differences also appeared in contributions from the industrial and economic structure between the two
countries. Some factors may have reached their limitation after the rapid reduction period and thus
contributed less significantly in the further-abatement period. A tendency toward a similar condition to
Japan was also observed in some factorial contributions in China. From a sectoral perspective, emission
change was distributed evenly among sectors in Japan than in China. Based on the comparison between
the two countries and the “new normal” that China is experiencing, we provided insights for China for
further abating industrial air-pollutant emissions in succeeding years.
© 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

1. Introduction economic development in many countries. The decoupling of eco-

Air pollution negatively affects human health and thus de-
creases life expectancy (Chen et al., 2013) and increases mortality
(He et al., 2016). Unfortunately, air pollution is concurrent with
* Corresponding author. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing,
100084, China.
** Corresponding author. School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Bei-
jing, 100875, China.
E-mail addresses: changmiao@tsinghua.edu.cn (M. Chang), tianx@bnu.edu.cn
(X. Tian).
nomic growth from increased pollutant emissions is a great chal-
lenge for many countries, especially developing ones such as China,
which has a rapidly developing economy but is facing environ-
mental deterioration.
Japan also experienced serious environmental deterioration
during and after its high economic growth from the 1950s to the
1970s. However, Japan successfully achieved the decoupling of
economic growth from pollutant emissions when emission

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.111
0959-6526/© 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
 M. Chang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250
reduction and outstanding economic growth were realized simul-
taneously from the 1970s to the 1980s (OECD, 1994). SO2 emissions
in Japan1 reached its peak in the mid-1960s and experienced a
rapid decline in the 1970s (Researching committee of air pollution
control experience of Japan, 2000). SO2 emissions continued to
decrease at a low rate, which illustrates a further-abatement period
relative to the rapid decline. The SO2 and NOx emissions in China
have reduced since the mid-2000s and the early 2010s, respec-
tively, but SO2 and NOx emissions must be reduced further because
they contribute to the formation of haze (Cheng et al., 2016). From
this point of view, Japan can serve as an example for China in
discovering appropriate approaches for the further reduction of air
pollution emissions after a rapid decline. Therefore, exploring the
driving factors of the further-abatement period in Japan is signifi-
cant for countries that seek effective approaches to achieve further
abatement.
Several studies have analyzed the factors that contributed to
emission reduction in Japan. OECD (1994) reported that the
decoupling of economic growth from environmental deterioration
in Japan could be largely attributed to the transformation of eco-
nomic structure, improvement of energy efficiency, and imple-
mentation of effective environmental policies. Li and Dai (2000)
concluded that SO2 reductions in the early stages (1960e1966)
were mainly from desulfurization and low-sulfur fuel while in later
stages (1974e1996) other factors such as energy savings in the
production process and fuel substitution made the most significant
contributions. The Ministry of the Environment (MOE) in Japan
analyzed the influencing factors of sulfur oxides. The SOx emissions
in 1974 and 1986 were compared in the report “Quality of the
Environment in Japan 1990” (MOE, 1990). The report concluded
that changes in desulfurization, fuel composition, energy saving,
production composition, and production contributed to the change
in sulfur oxides emissions when the increase in desulfurization and
energy saving had the most contributions. Researching committee
of the air pollution control experience of Japan (2000) simulated
the effects on the SO2 emissions of stack gas desulfurization change,
variation in fuels, energy saving, and industrial structural change
from the 1960s to the 1990s and found that variation in fuels was
the largest contributor.
Several studies have determined the factors that influence air-
pollutant emissions in China. Lyu et al. (2016) analyzed the con-
tributions of the changes in emission coefficient, energy intensity,
economic structure, economic level, and population to primary
PM2.5, NOx, and SO2 emission changes in China from 1997 to 2012;
they manifested that economic growth and energy intensity
improvement were the two key drivers of changes in air-pollutant
emissions and the impacts of different factors varied among
different pollutants. The emission changes of SO2, dust and soot in
ten industrial sectors were decomposed with a focus on coal
pollution intensity, end-of-pipe treatment, energy mix, productive
efficiency change, and production scale change from 1998 to 2009
(Fujii et al., 2013). The impacts of production scale, end-of-pipe
treatment and energy efficiency were emphasized. Carmichael
et al. (2002) represented that the decline of SO2 emissions from
1995 to 2000 in China was due to a decrease in industrial coal use, a
slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the closure of small and
inefficient plants, among other reasons. Liu et al. (2016) concluded
that the installment of denitration devices for power plants and the
control of vehicle emissions contributed significantly to NOx
reduction in China. A strict control of industrial emissions was
1
SO2 emission data were not available in Japan because SOx emissions were
investigated in Japan instead of SO2. SOx emission data were substituted for SO2 in
this study because SO2 was the major component of SOx.
241
required to further curb air pollution. Lin and Wang (2016) found
that energy consumption, industrialization, and technological
progress were the major contributors to the worsening urban air
quality, whereas economic development was a significant driver of
the improvement of that quality at the national level. The impacts
of socioeconomic factors were strongly variable among different
regions. The influences of land use amount and structure, industrial
production value and its share in GDP, and environmental policies
on industrial SO2 discharge amount and intensity from 2001 to
2014 were studied (Zhao et al., 2017). Moreover, the effects of SO2
production intensity, government control and industrial structure
(Zhao et al., 2010), process-integrated treatment, and end-of-pipe
control (Zhang, 2013) on industrial SO2 emission intensity varia-
tion were investigated. Relative studies that focus on the carbon
emissions in China can also offer reference. Except the driving
factors included in the abovementioned studies, novel factors, such
as investment and R&D, were also introduced into several studies
(Shao et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2017; Zhao et al., 2016). An analysis
framework was developed to evaluate the effects of socioeconomic
transitions on regional carbon dioxide emissions including indus-
trialization and urbanization processes (Tian et al., 2017; Zhu et al.,
2017). Another integrated analysis framework was also formed
from an inter-sector linked perspective, which included backward
and forward linkages and focused on CO2 emissions from the spe-
cific sectors of the iron and steel industry and the construction
material industry (Liu et al., 2018).
The studies above have offered valuable suggestions for emis-
sion reduction from influencing factors; however, comparative
studies between countries were seldom conducted, which can
bring the reference of countries in the further reduction period to
the countries beginning to realize emission reduction. The factorial
contributions for emission reduction during the further-abatement
period were rarely explored, and a lack of the comparison of
factorial contributions existed between the rapid reduction period
and the further reduction period. The contributions of relative
factors to emission reduction may vary in the different stages of
emission reduction. The factors that make a significant contribution
in the rapid reduction period may have a less obvious effect in
further reduction period because the factors may reach a certain
limitation in the former period. Pressures from some factors, such
as economic growth and population growth, may diminish in the
further reduction period. Appropriate reduction methods and
policies should be implemented to suit the certain period of
emission reduction.
In the present study, we analyzed the contributions of related
factors to SO2 and NOx emission reduction in Japan from 1992 to
2014 and China from 1992 to 2012 (SO2) and from 2006 to 2014
(NOx) by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI)
method. Industrial sources are the major contributors of SO2 and
NOx emissions, so we focused on industrial SO2 and NOx emission
changes. The emphases of factorial contributions would be revealed
for these two countries during their respective periods of emission
reduction. The variation in the contributions from driving forces
would be explored by comparing Japan and China. The results of
this study can be used as a basis when offering suggestions to China
and other developing countries that experience a similar primary
abatement period.
2. Methods and data
2.1. Decoupling analysis
The decoupling levels of Japan and China were measured to
obtain a general cognition of the relationship between economy
and emissions in the two countries during their respective periods.
242 M. Chang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250

The decoupling level can be measured by the decoupling factor The subscripts e, int, str-i, str-e, eco, and pop represent the effects
recommended by OECD (2002), which is appropriate for interna- of the changes in emission coefficient, energy intensity, industrial
tional comparison and has been used to measure the decoupling structure, economic structure, economic level, and population,
level of OECD countries, respectively. The sum of the absolute change driven by each vari-
able should be equal to the total absolute change of the aggregate.
ðEP=DFÞend of period The specific calculation of each effect is represented by the
Decoupling factor ¼ 1  ; (1)
ðEP=DFÞstart of period following equations:
  !
where EP stands for the environmental pressure (industrial emis- X STi  S0i UiT
sions), and DF refers to the driving force (the total GDP). The DSe ¼    ln (4)
i ln STi  ln S0i Ui0
positive value of the decoupling factor reveals the occurrence of
decoupling, and the negative value reflected the opposite situation.
Moreover, decoupling situations can be further divided into actual
  !
X STi  S0i IiT
and relative decoupling. Actual decoupling occurs when emissions DSint ¼    ln ; (5)
decline with a rising economy, whereas relative decoupling pre- i ln STi  ln S0i Ii0
sents that emissions increase as the economy grows but with a
slower speed than a rising economy.   !
X STi  S0i ATi
2.2. LMDI analysis DSstri ¼    ln ; (6)
i ln STi  ln S0i A0i
Index decomposition analysis (IDA) is a simple and flexible
 
method for exploring the driving factors of emission change. The
X STi  S0i  T
LMDI is the preferred IDA method for calculating the emission Q
DSstre ¼    ln (7)
contributions of relative factors because it provides perfect i ln STi  ln S0i Q0
decomposition without an unexplained residual term, which ren-
ders the results that are simple to interpret. It is also consistent in  
aggregation, which means that the estimates of an effect at the sub- X STi  S0i  
RT
group level can be aggregated to the group level. DSeco ¼    ln (8)
i ln STi  ln S0i R0
This study decomposed industrial SO2 and NOx emissions into
six factors: emission coefficient, energy intensity, industrial struc-
ture, economic structure, economic level, and population. Indus- and
trial structure represents the sectoral structure within the industry.  
Economic structure refers to the share of the industry in the total X STi  S0i  T
P
economy. DSpop ¼    ln (9)
i ln Si  ln Si
T 0 P0
Ang (2005) presented the practical guide for the LMDI formu-
lation process. Taking SO2 emissions as an example, LMDI identity is
given as follows,

X X Si Ei Yi Y G X 2.3. Data collection

S¼ Si ¼ P¼ Ui Ii Ai QRP;
i i
E Y
i i Y G P i
where S is the total SO2 emissions from the industry, Si represents
the SO2 emissions from sector i within the industry, Ei stands for
the energy consumption of sector i, Y is the total industrial GDP, and
Yi is the GDP of sector i. G represents the total GDP, and P represents
the national population.
The meaning of each factor can be expressed as follows. Ui ¼ Si =
Ei is equal to the emission per unit of the energy consumption in
sector i, which measures the emission coefficient effect and reflects
the combination of energy structure and emission removal rates.
Ii ¼ Ei =Yi equals the energy consumption per unit of GDP in sector i,
which represents the energy intensity effect that is mainly affected
by production technology levels. Ai ¼ Yi =Y is equal to the share of
sector i in the total industrial GDP, which presents the industrial
structure effect. Q ¼ Y=G equals the share of the total industry in
the GDP of the total economy, which stands for the economic
structure effect. R ¼ G=P is equal to the total GDP per capita, which
measures the economic level effect. P stands for the population
effect.
We decompose the difference in the scheme of additive
decomposition:
DStot ¼ ST  S0
¼ DSe þ DSint þ DSstri þ DSstre þ DSeco þ DSpop :
(2)
The period from 1992 to 2014 was chosen to represent the
further-abatement period in Japan as the statistical methods for
energy consumption were not consistent before and after 1990 in
Japan. The study period of China was from 1992 to 2012 for SO2
emissions and from 2006 to 2014 for NOx emissions. Four kinds of
data were collected for this study: sectoral emissions, energy con-
sumption, GDP, and total population data.
For Japan, we collected the data of sectoral emissions from the
General Surveys on Emissions of Air-pollutants by the MOE in Japan.
The energy consumption data of each sector were gathered from
the Comprehensive Energy Statistics by Agency for Natural Resources
and Energy, the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry. GDP data
classified by sectors and total population data were acquired from
the GDP Statistics by the Cabinet Office and the Population Estimates
by Statistics Bureau, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Commu-
nications, respectively.
The emission data for China were derived from the China Sta-
tistical Yearbook on Environment and China Environment Yearbook.
The data of energy consumption were collected from the China
Energy Statistical Yearbook. Sectoral GDP contributions were
collected from China Statistical Yearbook and the National Bureau of
Statistics of China. The population data were gathered from the
National Bureau of Statistics of China.
The GDP data of Japan and China were first adjusted to the price
(3)
level in 2005 in the respective monetary unit according to the GDP
 M. Chang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250
Statistics by the Cabinet Office in Japan and the China Price Statistical
Yearbook and then adjusted to U.S. dollar according to the exchange
rates in 2005. Moreover, the consistency between emissions and
energy consumption should be noticed. The emissions can be
divided into energy-related and process-related emissions. The
consistency between emissions and energy consumption would be
better if the emissions were energy-related emissions. However,
energy-related emissions of SO2 in China were only available in the
early years. Thus, we used the sum of the energy-related and
process-related emissions to retain the consistency between
different years. Some sectors in the industry were not covered in
the analysis of sectoral and factorial contributions to emission
changes because of the consistency problem between different
kinds of data for these sectors.
3. Results
3.1. Decoupling analysis of economic growth from pollutant
emissions
Fig. 1 presents the total and industrial GDP and the industrial
SO2 and NOx emissions in Japan and China. Japan continued the
decoupling of economic growth from pollutant emissions from
1992 to 2014 in the further-abatement period. The total and in-
dustrial GDP in Japan increased 19.5% and 14.1% and the average
annual growth rates were 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. The share of
the industrial GDP in the total GDP decreased from 23.0% to 22.0%,
which remained at a low level. The industrial SO2 and NOx emis-
sions decreased by 42.2% and 24.6% during the study period, with
the average annual decrease rates of 2.5% and 1.3%, respectively.
The total and industrial GDP rose significantly with an increase
of 596.0% and 833.3% in China from 1992 to 2012. The average
annual growth rates of the total GDP (10.2%) and industrial GDP
(11.8%) were much higher than those of Japan. The share of the
industry in the total GDP increased from 32.3% to 43.4%. The in-
dustrial SO2 and NOx emissions increased by 34.3% (from 1992 to
2012) and 26.1% (from 2006 to 2014), with the average annual
variety rates of 1.5% and 2.9%, respectively. The emissions in China
started to decrease in the mid-2000s for SO2 and the early 2010s for
NOx. The industrial emissions have decreased by 13.0% (from 2006
to 2012 for SO2) and 20.7% (from 2011 to 2014 for NOx), with the
average annual decrease rates of 2.3% and 7.4%, respectively.
The decoupling factor of Japan was 0.52 for SO2 and 0.37 for NOx
Fig. 1. Trends of economic development and emission change in Japan and China.
243
from 1992 to 2014. The decoupling factor of China was 0.81 for SO2
from 1992 to 2012 and 0.39 for NOx from 2006 to 2014. The positive
value shows that decoupling occurred in both countries. However,
China only achieved relative decoupling, which means that the
emission intensity was declined but the actual emissions still
increased with economic development. Actual decoupling was
achieved by Japan during the study period. Therefore, China still
needs to seek further reduction approaches for emissions before air
quality improvement can be achieved.
3.2. Sectoral contributions to emission changes
Fig. 2 presents the sectoral emission changes of the two coun-
tries. The majority of industrial SO2 emissions in Japan were pro-
duced by the sectors of electricity supply, chemicals and textiles,
iron and steel, paper and printing. The majority of industrial NOx
emissions were generated by the sectors of electricity supply, non-
metallic mineral products, iron and steel, and chemicals and tex-
tiles. The majority of the industrial SO2 emissions in China were
generated from the sectors of electric power and heat power,
smelting and pressing of metals, non-metallic mineral products,
and chemicals. NOx emissions were from the sectors of electric
power and heat power, non-metallic mineral products, smelting
and pressing of metals, and chemicals.
Compared with sectoral contributions to emission change in
Japan, most sectors in China made a negative contribution to SO2
and NOx emission reduction, opposite to the conditions in Japan.
Moreover, contributions to emission change were distributed
among sectors more evenly in Japan than in China. The sectors that
generated the majority of emissions made a dominant contribution
to emission change in China, and the contributions of remaining
sectors were insignificant. The sectors with less emissions were
important contributors to emission reduction in Japan, which
makes a larger contribution than some of the sectors that generate
the majority of emissions.
3.3. Contributions from the change of socioeconomic driving factors
to emission variation
Fig. 3 illustrates the contributions of factor changes to SO2 and
NOx emission variation in Japan and China. The decline in emission
coefficient was an important contributor to SO2 and NOx emission
reduction in Japan from 1992 to 2014, which led to the SO2
244 M. Chang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250
Fig. 2. Accumulated contributions of sectors to emission changes (million tons).
emission reduction of 0.25 million tons and the NOx emission
reduction of 0.13 million tons. The line that represents the contri-
butions from emission coefficient change to SO2 emission reduction
was close to the line that describes the total SO2 emission change in
Japan; the contribution from the variation in emission coefficient
almost determined SO2 emission reduction. The changes in other
factors, namely, energy intensity, industrial structure, economic
structure, economic growth, and population, has no great impact
on the SO2 and NOx emission abatement in Japan, except that the
contribution from industrial structure change to NOx emission
reduction was significant. The change of emission coefficient, in-
dustrial structure and economic structure contributed positively to
SO2 and NOx emission reduction in Japan, while energy intensity,
economic growth and population growth made a negative contri-
bution to emission reduction.
China experienced a different period of emission abatement. In
contrast to Japan, the decrease in energy intensity in China has
greatly reduced SO2 emissions (7.20 Mt) from 1992 to 2012 and NOx
emissions (3.15 Mt) from 2006 to 2014. Moreover, economic growth
had a dominant influence on emission change in China (28.53 Mt
for SO2 reduction and 9.38 Mt for NOx reduction) compared with
the unapparent contribution of economic growth in Japan. The
contributions of energy intensity change and economic growth
were less significant in China in the recent years of the study
period, which indicates a tendency toward a similar condition to
Japan. The decline in emission coefficient, similar to Japan, was also
an important contributor to SO2 and NOx emission reduction in
China (18.15 Mt for SO2 reduction and 2.24 Mt for NOx reduction),
especially in the latter part of the study period. The impact of
industrial structure change was positive to emission abatement and
significant in the case of NOx. For the change of other factors,
economic structure variation and population growth made a less
significant and negative contribution to SO2 and NOx emission
reduction in China.
The comparison between Japan and China illustrated that the
same factors differently affected SO2 and NOx emission reduction in
these two countries as the emission abatement periods that the
two countries experienced differed from each other. The variation
tendency of each factor in the two countries can account for the
comparison (Figs. 4e6).
Fig. 4 shows the downtrend of emission coefficient in Japan,
which declined by 40.0% for SO2 and by 23.8% for NOx during this
period from 1992 to 2014. Except for an increase of NOx emission
coefficient in the beginning, the SO2 and NOx emission coefficients
in China also decreased with a reduction of 68.4% from 1992 to 2012
and 12.6% from 2006 to 2014, respectively. The decline tendency of
the emission coefficient was observed in most sectors for both
countries (Figs. 5 and 6). The significant decline of emission coef-
ficient explained the great contribution of emission coefficient to
SO2 and NOx emission reduction in Japan and China.
During the given period in Japan, energy intensity negligibly
decreased by 10.3% (Fig. 4), and the energy intensity of sectors
either slightly decreased or increased (Fig. 5). The changes in en-
ergy intensity for China were different: total energy intensity
decreased by 38.9% from 1992 to 2012 and 36.2% from 2006 to 2014
(Fig. 4), and a decreasing trend of energy intensity was revealed in
all sectors (Fig. 6). Compared with emission coefficient, the change
in energy intensity for Japan was insignificant. The sharp decrease
 M. Chang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250
Fig. 3. Accumulated contributions of factors to air-pollutant emission reduction (million tons).
in energy intensity for China positively influenced emission
reduction. However, the declining trend began to slow down in
China during the latter part of the study period, which leads to a
situation similar to Japan.
Industrial structure change is illustrated in Fig. 5 for Japan and
China. The share of most sectors with large emissions in the in-
dustry declined, whereas those of the remaining sectors increased
in Japan. Industrial structure positively influenced emission
reduction in China, and the share of some of the sectors with large
emissions within the industry declined. Economic structure (Fig. 4)
measured by the share of industrial GDP in the total GDP decreased
in Japan during the study period, while economic structure in China
increased and negatively influenced SO2 and NOx emission
reduction.
Economic growth represented by the GDP per capita and pop-
ulation increased by 17.0% and 2.1% in Japan, respectively, whereas
the same factors for China increased by 502.3% and 15.6% from 1992
to 2012, respectively (Fig. 4). In terms of economic growth, China
contrasted sharply with Japan as the two countries were in
different phases of development. The rapid economic growth in
China had a remarkably negative impact on SO2 and NOx emission
reduction. By contrast, economic growth did not significantly affect
emission reduction in Japan. The growth speed of economy and
population in China gradually slowed down in the recent years of
the study period and turned into a similar condition to Japan.
The contributions from the changes in factors, which include
emission coefficient, energy intensity, and industrial structure, can
245
also be further divided into sectors (Fig. A and Fig. B in supporting
information). Most sectors contributed positively to SO2 and NOx
emission reduction related to emission coefficient change in Japan
and China but the emission variation related to emission coefficient
change had a more even distribution among sectors in Japan than in
China. For the contributions to emission variation from energy in-
tensity change, most sectors in China were positive contributors to
emission reduction. The opposite condition happened in Japan, and
only some of the sectors that generate the majority of emissions
made a significantly positive contribution to emission reduction
related to energy intensity change. In terms of emission change
related to industrial structure variation, most sectors positively
contributed to emission reduction in Japan and China. However, the
industrial structure change of some of the sectors with large
emissions was manifested as a significantly negative contributor to
emission reduction in Japan.
4. Discussion
4.1. Contributions of factor changes and sectors during different
periods
The variation of the same factors in Japan and China made
different contributions to emission change because the two coun-
tries were in different development stages and experienced distinct
periods of decoupling and emission abatement. The same factors
vary differently in Japan and China, especially the factors of energy
246 M. Chang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250
Fig. 4. Change in factors for Japan and China (Index).
intensity and economic growth. The change in energy intensity
contributed significantly to emission reduction in China with a
dramatic decrease during the study period, while energy intensity
decreased insignificantly in Japan in the further-abatement period.
However, energy intensity drastically decreased in the late 1970s
and early 1980s in Japan. The distinction in the changing scope of
energy intensity between the rapid reduction period and the
further-abatement period in Japan can be explained by the
increasing marginal cost for the further reduction of energy in-
tensity because further reduction became more difficult with the
decline of energy intensity and further reduction space diminished
after an initial drastic decrease. This trend can be presented by
marginal abatement cost curves, which was hypothesized to rise
with the increase in emission reduction (Han, 2012) and has been
verified by several studies on energy efficiency, greenhouse gas, air-
pollutant and waste reduction (Beaumont and Tinch, 2004; Cofala
and Syri, 1998; Jakob, 2006; Klepper and Peterson, 2006;
McKinsey and Co., 2009; Vijay et al., 2010). Therefore, other factors,
such as emission coefficient, and corresponding methods may be
chosen instead of energy intensity to achieve further reduction
because the marginal reduction costs of the other factors were
relatively low, which lead to insignificant energy intensity change
and less contribution to emission variation. The marginal costs for
further reduction of other factors may have increased in the rapid
reduction period. However, given that the changing extent and
contributions of these factors were not evident, the marginal costs
remained low compared with the energy intensity factor. China was
experiencing the primary stage of emission reduction. Thus, the
marginal cost of energy intensity for emission abatement was still
low, which explains the apparent decline in the energy intensity of
China and the significant contribution to emission reduction. The
decline and contribution of energy intensity in China slowed down
in the recent years of the study period, which can result from the
increased marginal cost of energy intensity during the decline.
Economic growth negatively affected emission reduction in
China with a sharp rise in GDP in the study period. However, this
negative effect was less significant in Japan in the further-
abatement stage, where the GDP increased slightly during the
further reduction period, which contrasts with the economic
growth in China. This increase was also considerably lower than
that during the rapid reduction period of Japan because the econ-
omy was more likely to increase gently in the phase after rapid
development due to the limitation of economic growth. Economic
growth in China also presented a trend of slowdown recently given
that China was facing the “new normal” of economy, which in-
dicates a tendency toward a similar condition to Japan.
Emission coefficient change contributed significantly to emis-
sion reduction in two countries during the study periods. Its
contribution was significant in Japan in the further-abatement
period, and the importance of emission coefficient decline was
also revealed in China. The emission coefficient factor can be
further analyzed based on the removal rates of SO2 and NOx from
 M. Chang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250 247

Fig. 5. Change of factors in sectors for Japan (Index).

gas, the sulfur and nitrogen content rates of fuels, and fuel struc-
ture. The raise in the removal rates of SO2 and NOx from gas can be
achieved by technology improvement and popularization of waste-
gas desulfurization and denitration facilities. Sulfur content rates
can be decreased by the usage of fuels with lower sulfur content
rates and the installment of fuel desulfurization facilities. Fuel
structure can be optimized by increasing the share of energy such
as natural gas and nuclear energy in total energy consumption. It
also should be noticed that there's a limitation to emission coeffi-
cient improvement given the increase of emission coefficient in
2014 in Japan.
The variation in industrial structure and economic structure
contributed positively to emission reduction in Japan, which indi-
cated the potential for further emission reduction in the succeeding
248 M. Chang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250

Fig. 6. Change of factors in sectors for China (Index).

stage. The contributions of industrial and economic structure
change in China are positive and negative to emission reduction,
respectively. The increasing share of industry in the total economy
indicated that China was experiencing the process of industriali-
zation while an improvement of industrial structure occurred in
recent years of the study period. In the further-abatement period of
emissions for China, the potential of industrial and economic
structure improvement can be exploited, and larger contributions
to emission reduction can also be expected. Population growth
didn't have a significant impact on emission reduction in both
countries given the stability of this factor.
The downtrend of air-pollutant emissions was observed in
China during the latter part of the given period, and China soon
faces the challenges of the further reduction period. Therefore, the
further reduction period of Japan is a valuable reference for China.
Emission coefficient may remain a crucial factor for emission
 M. Chang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250
reduction in China, which can be further decreased by increasing
the removal rates of SO2 and NOx emissions from gas, decreasing
the sulfur and content of fuels, and optimizing fuel structure.
However, further decreasing energy intensity becomes more diffi-
cult according to the increasing marginal cost. Economic growth is
likely to slow down once the “new normal” of the economy occurs,
which reduces the pressure on emissions. The pressure from pop-
ulation growth may also decrease, and even negative population
growth is likely to occur in China, which has already happened in
Japan in the recent years of the study period. Industrial and eco-
nomic structure optimization would be a potential approach for
emission reduction in the succeeding phrase of China and can
contribute considerably. However, the potential factors would
reach a limit as well, and further improvement would be difficult.
From a sectoral perspective, differences between the two
countries also appeared. Emission change was distributed more
evenly among sectors in Japan and so were the factorial contribu-
tors to emission change. The differences can be attributed to the
different phases of emission reduction that Japan and China were
experiencing. Some certain sectors were regarded as the major
target during the rapid reduction period in Japan and the current
period in China. A great emission reduction was achieved by these
sectors. However, the potential of these sectors gradually declined
with the rising marginal abatement costs. Thus, other sectors were
more emphasized for emission reduction in the further-abatement
period than before. Therefore, control over the other sectors would
be another appropriate way to achieve further emission reduction
in the succeeding period of emission abatement for China.
4.2. Actions against air-pollutant emissions
The severe environmental deterioration from the 1950s to the
1970s forced Japan to take action against serious consequences.
Under the Air Pollution Control Law, effective measures have been
taken to address the air pollution problems caused by sulfur oxides
and nitrogen oxides in Japan. One of the regulations for sulfur oxide
emissions was called K-value regulation. Sulfur oxide emissions
were controlled under K-value regulation according to the height of
chimneys to decrease the effects of sulfur oxide emissions, such as
landfall concentration, under certain levels. The area-wide total
pollutant load control was also implemented by restricting the total
emission of industrial plants or business establishments in areas
where the K-value regulation program was not sufficient (MOE,
1990). Moreover, K-value regulation was revised and strength-
ened annually from 1968 to 1976. Nitrogen oxide emissions from
stationary sources, such as industrial plants and establishments,
were controlled based on emission concentration of each genera-
tion facility and area-wide total pollutant load. Strict permissible
levels were also specified for nitrogen oxides from automobiles.
The above analysis indicated that emission reduction was achieved
not only with environmental controls, but also with related in-
dustry and energy policies, and energy-related social events, such
as oil shocks. The key to overcoming air pollution problems in Japan
was its comprehensive policy approach, combined with energy-
related policies (Li and Dai, 2000).
The strong leadership of local governments, environmental
awareness of citizens, and recognition of social demands and re-
sponsibility by enterprises were crucial in implementing emission
controls in Japan. Some pioneering local governments, instead of
the central government, initially acted against environmental
deterioration, which implies the strong will of local governments to
improve air quality. Moreover, an agreement on environmental
pollution control existed between companies, local governments,
and citizens. Companies were required to meet the strict emission
249
standards set by local governments and citizens (MOE, 1971). The
national aiding system for investment also enabled investment in
pollutant control facilities. The investment system set by the Japan
Environment Corporation, the operating body of public financing,
enabled small- and medium-sized business companies to invest in
pollutant control (Morishima, 2003; Ito, 2014) to assist the
achievement of emission reduction from these companies with a
relatively small scale.
China has begun paying attention to environmental improve-
ment and decoupling of economic growth from emission reduction
in recent years. China also implemented emission concentration
standards and total pollutant load controls. Besides the command-
and-control policies, subsidies, such as desulfurization and deni-
tration power prices, were available. Moreover, emission trading
has been introduced in China to further stimulate emission
reduction and reduce reduction costs. Energy and industrial pol-
icies would also affect emission reduction, which has been included
in the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Act in 2013. However,
compared with Japan, the performance of local governments and
companies and the participation of citizens still need improvement
in the implementation procedure of relative policies, which is
crucial for the achievement of emission reduction goals.
5. Conclusion
This study decomposed SO2 and NOx emission variation into the
change of related socioeconomic driving factors in Japan and China
using the LMDI method. This study conducted a comparative study
between the two countries based on the decomposition results.
Japan successfully continued the actual decoupling of economic
growth from air-pollutant emissions in the further-abatement
period. China also achieved relative decoupling and experienced
the primary stage of emission reduction. Japan can offer valuable
references for China given that China would soon face the challenge
of achieving further reduction. In Japan, the change of emission
coefficient was the major contributor to emission reduction. In
China, energy intensity decline and economic growth significantly
affected emission change in addition to emission coefficient
change. Industrial and economic structure also contributed differ-
ently to emission reduction between the two countries. Moreover,
the contributions from changes in several factors in China illus-
trated a tendency toward a similar condition to Japan. From a
sectoral perspective, emission change was distributed more evenly
in Japan than in China.
The comparison between the two countries can be attributed to
the different stages of emission abatement that Japan and China
were experiencing. The potential from the variation of influencing
factors would change in different abatement periods. The empha-
ses of emission reduction should vary accordingly. The comparison
revealed the emphasis for further emission abatement in China.
Emission coefficient variation would remain crucial for emission
reduction, while less contribution can be expected from energy
intensity decline. Pressures on emission reduction from economy
and population growth would appear decreased, and the potential
of industrial and economic structure improvement is possible to
manifest. Moreover, emission reduction achievement in sectors
with less emissions would reveal its significance. The actual
implementation performance in China needed improvement to
ensure the achievement of emission control goals. With the clear
recognition of the reduction potentials of factors and sectors, China
would achieve further emission reduction by emphasizing on the
appropriate factors and sectors, and better air quality can be ex-
pected in the recent future.
250 M. Chang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 189 (2018) 240e250
Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the National Natural Science
Foundation of China (No. 71573149; No. 71704012). Xin Tian was
partly supported by the National Key Research and Development
Program (No. 2016YFC0503005), the State Key Laboratory of Water
Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, and the
“Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities”.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data related to this article can be found at
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.111.
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