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Abstract
Much careful work and thought are needed from the time an ore is discovered until a
marketable product is produced. Most of the time, incomplete or imprecise information on
the deposit has to be used on the decision of continuing or not the development and
implementation of the project. This paper presents a diagnostic methodology to deal with
gold projects at preliminary stages, with the development of "IntelliGold" - the expert
system for gold process design. A knowledge base on gold mineralogy and processing is
used to provide the user feasibility information on a given gold ore. Decision-makers can
have a preliminary, but reliable view of the mineral processing project, based on lab results
substantiated by mineralogical characterisation, operational issues, and economic analysis.
Introduction
Gold mining projects are still a rare opportunity in the minerals industry. They need relative
small investments and give high profitability and fast return on investment when compared
to other mineral projects [1].
The evolution of a gold mining project is a dynamic process. To expand or maintain gold
production, continuous development of new deposits and fast implementation of new
mining sites are needed. After the huge growth in gold production in the 1980's, resulting
from the gold price peak that occurred in the late 1970's, the gold industry in this decade is
faced with the mining of low grade and complex ores. Exhaustion of high grade and free-
milling gold reserves is generally followed by discovery of deposits with low grade and
complex mineralogy [2]. Therefore, it is relevant to attempt to optimise the development
process beginning with geological exploration and ending with production and
commercialisation, in order to reduce the time needed and increase profitability.
From the time of discovery until the first bar is poured, careful work and thought is needed.
Multidisciplinary input from the fields of geology, engineering (mining, chemical,
metallurgical, mechanical, electrical and civil), architecture, business administration,
sociology and biology will be required over many years until the project is finished.
Process design is one of the major issues. As simple and easily-extractable ores are almost
all exhausted, there is need for a consistent approach to deal with the paradoxical problem
of making a profit despite increasing complexity and decreasing or stagnant gold prices.
Process design for a gold ore should consider aspects of the ore genesis, mineralogical
characteristics, and ore behaviour in the available metallurgical processes, linkage with the
mining method, environmental impact, and economic issues. The type of work and
environment involved makes it an ideal environment to apply Artificial Intelligence tools
such as Expert Systems, Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks [3].
Gold project development: imprecision, risk and decision making
Success of a new mine depends on several factors. Among them, a key factor is the answer
to a simple question: is it a "good project"? The answer however is far from simple,
especially in the preliminary stages. Its search is what we call a "feasibility study". From
the project start until the decision to implement the mine is made, most project work is an
interactive process of gathering information and evaluating the project feasibility. However,
as resources are often limited, the development should be performed gradually.
In the preliminary steps, the information available might be sufficient to classify the project
as a bad project, but almost never sufficient to ensure the project is a profitable one. The
boundary poor prospect/good prospect is fuzzy: the prospect can be clearly poor (e.g. there
is no gold in the ore, ore grade is too low, etc), possibly poor, possibly good and clearly
good. Figure 1 illustrates the fuzzy concept.
Process Development
Technical feasibility evaluation with the maximum degree of precision is only possible
when the detailed engineering project is finished. However, since the early stages of
research, crescent investments are needed and decisions are made between the development
stages. Table 1 illustrates the characteristics of the development stages of a gold project.
Because of this effort together with the continued evolution of new processes for refractory
ores, gold processing can be considered a separate organised subject within the field of
mineral processing. Good textbooks are available [5,6] and many papers are published each
year describing technology enhancements and potential breakthroughs.
As process design is one step in the design and evaluation of a gold project, we have
decided to integrate the relevant technological tests performed at each stage with additional
important data such as geology, mineralogy, economics and environmental issues. Our
plans are to build a system for use by multidisciplinary teams beginning with the discovery
of a new prospect.
- an inference system able to recommend processing options for a specific ore and to
estimate costs and revenue even when the data are uncertain. The system will establish
the main risk factors contained in each recommendation to point out areas for continued
research and testing. By using this tool, the development team can be directed towards
fields that are more likely to increase profitability and decrease risk of failure.
Furthermore the system can be used to simulate different scenarios that the project may
experience during its development or operation (such as changes in gold price, ore
grade or discovery of new reserves);
From ore and deposit characteristics collected during preliminary geological investigations,
decision rules are applied to choose the potentially better processing options for the ore.
Then the unit operations to be used in these flowsheets are gathered together and sized.
With the process routes defined, cost and revenue calculations are performed using existing
models or historical data. These options are then classified according to their potential
return and associated risk. At the same time, the user can access a hypertext document
containing information above the processes selected by the system, or retrieve information
on existing mines that use similar processes. The user makes a decision on the optional
processes designed as follows: investigate further, abandon/hold or implement the project.
Figure 2 illustrates how the system is designed to work.
Ore/deposit
information
Decision rules,
fuzzy sets
Process routes
indication
Continue investigation
Flowsheet Hypertext with . Do research
alternatives literature review and . Gather more data
case studies
DECISION Abandon or
Cost and Mining method MAKING hold
revenues user input
calculation
Ranking of alternatives
Alternative NPV/IRR D.C. Main risk factors Implement
project
Comdale/X was chosen as the main AI inference engine for the system. The approach used
by this software defines the main variables as "keyword triplets" -- characterised by three
parts: object, attribute and data type. The triplets can be grouped into classes, which can be
organised in a hierarchical structure. The use of classes results in an organised structure
especially when dealing with many variables. The triplets can be either logical, numerical,
string or fuzzy. Fuzzy triplets use fuzzy logic to transform numerical measurements into a
facet called the degree of belief which varies from 0 (false) to 100 (true). Comdale/X uses
"rules" in a format IF-AND-OR-THEN-ELSE to perform its inferencing [7].
The system has been developed as a series of modules, such that when one module is
finished, the system is naturally expanded as new modules are developed and added. This
approach allows future application to deal with other ores, such as copper, iron and zinc.
The steps in our system are as follows:
All stages can be conducted even when data are absent within an internal stage. In this case,
the analysis is done by assuming results based on prior knowledge about the previous stage.
For example, if testwork has not yet been done to determine the metallurgical performance,
this data can be estimated from mineralogical analysis performed in the previous stage of
the system albeit at significantly reduced reliability. As data flows into the system during
the design process over time the degree of confidence (or belief) in the conclusions are
improved. Similarly the number of options presented will be decreased to focus on one or
two main process flowsheets.
Ultimately, it is the behaviour of the ore that will define which processes can be used.
The ideal and final goal in the development of a gold project is to have complete
information on the processing of the ore, with all process variables and scale-up factors
determined. However, to achieve this, it is important, from the beginning of the
development, to infer, approximate or even guess the ore processing based on geology,
mineralogy, or behaviour in preliminary testwork.
The rules in the knowledge base for suggesting unit operations and selecting process routes
aim, therefore, to correlate aspects of geology, mineralogy and behaviour of the ore with
the many processes usually applied for gold ores.
The rules that link aspects of each class can be be structured into layers, since many
geology premises can indicate mineralogical characteristics of the ore, which in turn can
infer process behaviour, which then defines the processes to be tested and applied. As more
information is generated in each class, accuracy in the predictions improve. As testing
progresses through ore behaviour and process variable determination, the system should be
able to determine ultimately if the prospect is poor or good with a reasonable degree of
belief. Figure 3 represents the knowledge building process in the system.
Process routes
e
dg
le
ow
kn
combined
inferred measured
ge
l ed
ow Process options
kn
combined
inferred measured
e
dg
wle
o Behavior
kn
combined
inferred measured
e
dg
wle
o Mineralogy
kn
Geology
The weights used in the combination of inferred and measured triplets (variables) are
derived from the conditions in which the analysis and tests are made, as well as the
sampling quality. In this process, the following situations can occur:
There is only a inferred certainty for a triplet: in this case, the combined certainty
will be the average of the inferred (which is different from 50) and the default measured
(which is 50), and, as a result, the confidence on the inferred value will be diminished
as there is no measure to verify it;
There is only a measured certainty for a triplet: in the same way, the confidence will
be diminished because of the lack of a reason for that measurement. However, the
amortisation degree will be low if the weight of the measurement is high, which means
a good analysis on a representative sample, for instance;
The certainty of the measured and inferred triplets are either both true or false:
the combined certainty will be anywhere between the measured and inferred triplets,
depending on the weights;
The certainty of measured and inferred triplets is discordant - one is true and
other is false: the combined certainty would tend to the one with the highest weight. In
this case, the system alerts the user on the incompatibility of data, that can occur
because of either incorrect data (non-representative sampling, analysis error, incorrect
classification) or an unusual deposit/ore. It provides the user a chance to review the data
that is generating the incompatibility. If the incompatibility still occurs, the user then
has the ability to change weights.
The management of incompatible information is one way of the system to feedback input or
generated variables. Another source of feedback comes from the economic analysis, which
follows the flowsheet design stage.
The classification of deposit types is driven by the genesis of the deposit, i.e., geological
issues. In the other hand, the classification of ore types is driven by mixed geological and
mineralogical characteristics of the ore and, in the particular case of the "free-milling"
classification, the ore behaviour on cyanidation. In other words, the deposit types relates to
the terminology used by field geologists and the ore types refer to the terminology used by
petrography geologists (or mineralogists).
A review on literature and existing information on gold deposits and projects was
performed in order to derive common characteristics of ores from a given ore and deposit
type, resulting in typical ores for each classification. Of course, there are deposit types in
which a variety of ore types can occur, and in this case several options are given to the
system, but with low degrees of certainty.
The inferred mineralogy is combined with the experimental data using the weighting
process described previously.
The system uses rules to instantiate the inferred behaviour triplets. More rules were
obtained from interviews with experts, author's experience and literature review.
One important issue is also the interpretation of experimental data from metallurgical
testwork. The expert system interprets the numeric results from testwork into linguistic
expressions in order to characterise process behaviour using fuzzy sets and rules. It
provides forms and interpretation rules for laboratory and pilot tests for the main unit
operations involved in flowsheet design comminution, gravity concentration, cyanidation,
flotation, diagnostic leaching, pre-oxidation and solution purification / gold recovery.
To accomplish this, the system uses a combination of rules and default values to select,
which unit operations are to be used, from primary comminution to gold smelting. The first
step is to define different "options" of flowsheet design, since, at any given time, more than
one alternative for gold extraction may be possible.
In this case, it is important to enter to the economic evaluation module with more than one
flowsheet, since the final choice is highly dependent on economic, political or
environmental factors. Also, it is important to show to the user that more than one option is
available, personal experience can be used to add more certainty to one specific flowsheet
or another.
All the input data and results generated in the consultation of the process design module are
arranged in a hypertext report. The user can browse through the report, go to a specific page
and print the report.
Using rules and graphical files, it is possible to draw the process flowsheet corresponding
to each possible approach for the ore. The flowsheet was designed as a block diagram, with
each unit operation represented in a schematic way.
By clicking on each unit operation selected, the hypertext document will jump to a page
describing the basics of each unit operation/process, main applications, possible problems,
and a picture of an industrial unit.
Also, a complete flowsheet involving all possible unit operations are shown in a page for
consultation. The individual flowsheets are generated from then complete flowsheet. Figure
4 shows the complete flowsheet.
The first step consists in calculate capital and operating costs for each unit operation
selected in the flowsheet, using a database of actual costs and adjustment factors. The
adjustment factors correct the database data for inflation (using M&S index), location,
usage of salvage equipment, among others.
After the cost calculation, the system calculates the revenues based on the reserve size,
estimated throughput, and gold grade and recovery, and calculates the expected Net Present
Value and Internal Rate of Return. At this point, the system also identifies the main sources
of uncertainty and risk in the project and indicates the user which parameters in the
testwork must be confirmed, optimised or reviewed. This provides a feedback to the project
and interactivity in the analysis.
Conclusions
The development of an expert system for process design for gold ores is justified by the
following reasons:
An expert system to assist on the process design for gold projects is being developed with
the aim to provide consistent methodology to integrate information from different areas and
provide estimates and inferences of possible process options and variables. It aims to
provide a basis for decision-making during the preliminary stage of a project even when
only information is incomplete or is not available.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank their supporting institutions and organisations: The
University of British Columbia, Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo and
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce which made possible the development of the system.
References
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Universidade de São Paulo, dissertation (MSc), 1996.
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[5] MARSDEN, J.; HOUSE, I. The chemistry of gold extraction. London, Ellis Horwood Limited, 1992.
[6] YANNOPOULOS, J. C. The extractive metallurgy of gold. New York, Van Norstrand Reinhold, 1991.
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