CHAPTER- ONE

1. INTRODUCATION
1.1. Back ground of the study

Ethiopia is an agrarian economy with a very small industrial base. Hence the performance
of the economy as a whole is largely influenced by what happened in the agriculture
sector. Agriculture accounted for about 74%, 62%, 50%, and 45.1% of GDP in 1965, 1978,
1988 and 2001 respectively. This Declining trend coveys as if structural transformation
has been taking place.Neverthlessthe age-old contribution of the sector in foreign
exchange earnings and employment generation remained stagnant around 90 and 85
percent respectively.

Agriculture in Ethiopia is an ancient and primary economic activity to its people.

Due to diversified topography soil, weather and climatic condition that favors
various agricultural activities, majority of the country’s people have been engaged
in and generate their income from the sector. This sector is major food supplier,
main source of export or foreign currency earnings and capital accumulation for
the process of future industrialization to the country (central agriculture census
commission, 2002).

Even though agriculture in Ethiopia is primary or, its performance is mainly

characterized by the use of back ward and traditional form of implements and by
rain feed agricultural production that resulted to low and declining productivity of
the sector (central agricultural census commission, 2002).

There are several factors which affect cereal crop productivity in Ethiopia. Among
these land fragmentation, land degradation, subsistence farming, land tenure
insecurity, weak agricultural research and development. Extension service are the
some and major factor (EEA, 2002).

The prevailing orthodoxy among development practitioners is to see the problem

agriculture in developing country such as Ethiopia strictly as a technical and
resources related problem. This view identify the low level of agricultural
productivity as the key problem of the automatics solution that flows is to find
ways to enhance productivity. (second annual repot on the Ethiopia Economy,
volume, 2- 2000/200.

1.2. Statement of the problem

Despite the importance of agricultural sector in Ethiopia economy is largely based

on subsistence level due to low productivity. In 2001/02 cereal crop yield was how
increment continuously for more than 5 year. The reason behind it is improvement
of technology using fertilizer and improve seeds and soon. Even though
agriculture in general and cereal crop in particular increased,

food requirement was not satisfied at national as well as regional level (EEA,2001).

There are several factors which affect cereal crop productivity in Ethiopia. Among
these land fragmentation, land degradation, subsistence farming, land tenure
insecurity, weak agricultural research and development. (EEA, 2001).

THE MAJOR ECONOMIC News in the last year said that between 1979/80 and
1993/94 food production grew at every low rate of 0.5 percent per annum, while
population grew at a high rate of 3 percent. It shows in Ethiopia growth of
productivity and population growth is un balance and it also one problem for
cereal crop productivity. (Economic focus volume, 1 April, 1998).

In these research we will going to find out the determinate factor of cereal crop
productivity by taking of specific study area of debark woreda.

1.3. Objective of the study

3.1.1. General objective

The general objective of this paper is to assess the determinate of cereal crop
productivity in debark Woreda.

3.1.2. Specific objective

1. Examined the level of cereal crop in the debark

2. To identify determinant of productivity in the survey area.

3. To identify consequence on agricultural house holds.

1.4. Significance of the study

The study try to show the determinant of cereal crop production in the debark
woreda. The study also creates some awareness among the farmer about the use of
modern agricultural in put such as, fertilizers, improve seeds, and increase in
productivity of cereal crop. It also attempt to find out problems related with the
determinant of cereal crop productivity.
[

Further more, it will be helpful for cereal crop farmers, because it try to show the
determinant of cereal crop productivity and its solution.

Finally, it may contribute for further research effort in the area or it use as a
source of information in the survey area.

1.5. Research methods

1.5.1. Data collection methods

The data is collected using primary data collection method from household who
are engaged in agricultural activity particularly in cereal crop product and we
use secondary data like, reference book and research paper which related with
our topic.

1.5.2. Sampling method

The sample methods was simple random sampling in the cereal crop farmer for the
reason that to avoid sample selection bias. This data collected from 64 households
of sample survey.

1.5.3 Data analysis method basically the collected data is analysis

and presented by using cob-doglas production function.
 1.6. Limitation of the study

In the study process we face the following constraint which limits the research
quality.

1. Time constraint
2. Lack of finance to reach respondents on rural society which are settled in
scattered patter
3. Some people are not being willing to fill the equation or give answers.
4. Transport constraint especially when the primary data collection takes place.
Scope of the study

In our paper the scope of the study include only the 2004 working season out put
of cereal crop production of farmer. Because our data is cross –sectional data.

Organization of the study

The study was have four chapters the first chapter is about the introduction which
includes, back of ground of the study ,statement of the problem, objective,
significance, methodology ,limitation, scope and organization of the study. The
second chapter is about literature review and the third chapter was the analysis
and discussion of the collected data. The fourth and the last chapter provide
conclusion and recommendation of the study.

CHAPTER TWO

2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Definition of some concepts
1. Debark- is smallest administrative units of north Gondar which is sub-
division of woreda.
2. Cereal crop- are crops that are produced in greater volume compared to the
other crops because they are the principal staple and export commodities at
times of bumper harvest in the country. In other word it is one of various
type of grass that produce of rains that can be eaten or are used to make
flour or bread.
Example:- wheat, Barley and Rye are all cereals.
 3. Determinant- variables which affect level of productivity.
4. Technology- it implies that specific state of art and science that is used to
transfer from a combination of in put to out put (goods and services).
5. Agriculture- is the growing of crops and /or raising of animals for own
consumption and/ or sale.
6. Farming- the word farming refers to plaguing or cultivating of land for crop.
7. Production- is measure of crop yield which is increase or decrease or it is
ratio of out put to in put.
2.2. Types of cereal crop, farming and farming system

According to range of cultivation cereal crop are classified in to different type such
as.

1. Tef (Erogrostis tef)

In Ethiopia cereals, pulses, oil crops, vegetables and root crops are grown on about
10 million hectarce of land annually. Of these, 8.7 million is allocated for cereals in
200718. Tef, the single dominant cereal, occupies, 2,565, 155 hec and the
production is about 29,929, 235 quintals.

Ethiopia is not only the or gin of tef, but it is also the center of diversity. Tef is
primarily gown to prepare injera (Ethiopia bread), porridge and some native
alcoholic drinks. The straw is mainly used for animal feed. It is the most adapted
crop in the diverse agro- ecologies of the country.

2. Bread wheat (Triticum aestivum).

Wheat is one of the various cereal crops largely grown in the high lands of
Ethiopian. It is produced largely in the south east, central and north west parts of
the country.

Small amount is produced in the rest of the nort land south regions. At the
national level, currently 1,424,719 hectare of land is covered by bread and durum
wheat and ever 203, 144, 885 quintals are produced from this land annually.
Wheat is most widely cultivated cereal in the country; hence it is the third and
second important crop in terms of area coverage and volume of production
respectively.
 3. Durum wheat (Triticum turgidum var. durum)

Durum wheat is used for pasta and macaroni making. It is tetraploid wheat species
and traditionally grown on heavy black clay soils (vertisoils) of the high lands
between 1800-2800 meters above sea level. It has very narrow adaptation and
lower yield potential as copared to bread wheat.

Although recommendations may vary from one region to another, the planting of
newly improved durum wheat varieties are 2-3 weeks earlier than the normally
used land races. In general, the improved varieties of durum wheat are highly
beneficial in most of their qualities to agro industries.

4. Triticale (X-Triticasecale)

Triticale (x- Triticosecale) is a man made crop developed by crossing wheat (Tritium
turgid of Tritium aestivum) with Rye (secale cereale). In Ethiopia triticale is only a
recent introduction. Triticale can be cultivated in a wide range of agro- ecologies,
ranging from sea level to over 300 m .a . I. Drought and frost tolerance are the
primary advantages that triticale has over other cereal crop. It also copared with
many other cereals. Triticale has high biomass production and re-grown capacity
for grazing. The yield advantage over wheat and barley is also great. Triticale is
adapted to a wide range of soil condition ranging from sandy to clay soil types. It
requires an average of 500-600mm rainfall, well distributed during the growing
season. How ever, it can also perform well with as little as 350mm of seasonal rain
fall.

Most cultural practices for growing wheat can be applied- directly to triticale.
Consequently, the fertilize.

Seed bed preparation, seeding depth and seeding methods used for making injera,
pasta, pastry, bread, tella and beer. Triticale bread and injera products have been
well acceptable by farmers in north Gondar.

5. Emmer wheat (Triticum dicoccum)

Emmer wheat (tritium dicoccum) is not strictly Africans it is originated in the near
east. Indeed it is one of the first cereals every domesticated and was part of the
early agriculture of the Fertile Crescent.

Farmers have it in filed perhaps as far back as 10,000 years ago. For several
thousand years it remained a major cereal through out the Middle east and north
Africa. Then people switched to durum wheat the type now used world wide to
make spaghetti, macaroni and other pasta. Farmers preferred it because its grain
was free threshing (the seed fell out of its husk quite easily), and during the past
2,000 years or so the older form, emmer wheat, become an abandoned wheat.

Emmers locally know as Aja, is used in various ways. Some is ground in to flour
and baked with milk or water to make for ridge(genfo). And some is mixed with
boiling water and butter to produce gruel. With emmer’s high protein content and
smooth and easily digestible starch, invalids and nursing mothers especially favor
the gruel.

6. Rice:- is an annual short day cereal crop (even though some varieties are
long day) and grown widely in tropical country; it needs about
1,800mm/annum per caption. At national level currently 24, 434 ha of land
is covered by this crop with a totally yield estimate of about 713, 161 qt. the
highest yield is obtained in warm temperature and soil with
high (clay) slit content. Seed are sown in nurseries at the rate of 60km/ha
and Trans planted to filed 4-6 plant per hill when seedlings are well grown. It
needs 90-200 days to mature depending on varieties (determinants).

It is a recently introduced cereal crop in to Ethiopia and cultivated in fog era, pawe
the north eastern part of Gondar, Gabmela and South eastern part of the country.

It is also produced in western part in a small scale.

7. Maize (Zea mays L.)

Maize is widely produced in the country. It is largely produced in the western,

central, southern and eastern regions. In 2007/2008 1,767,389 hectare of land
was covered with maize with an estimated production not less than 37, 497,491
quintal. In Ethiopia maize is produced for food, especially, in major maize
producing regions mainly for low- income groups , it is also used as staple food.
Maize is consumed as “Injera,” porridge, Bread and “Nefro”. It is also consumed
roasted or boiled as vegetable at green stage. In addition to the above it is used to
prepare “Tella” and “Arekie”. The leaf and stalk are used for animal feed and also
dried stalk and cob are used for fuel. It is also used as industrial raw material for
oil and glucose production.

8. Sorghum (sorghum bicolor)

Sorghum is one of the major crops produced in Ethiopia and it is the fourth
important corop in terms of area coverage and volume of production. It is adapted
to a wide range of environment and hence can be produced in the high lands
medium altitude and low land area. It’s widely produced more than any other
crops, in the areas where there is moisture stress. Currently sorghum is produced
on about 1, 533,537 lack land from which 26,591, 292 quintals of yield are
obtained. Sorghum is used in various ways. It grains are used for human
consumption and beverages such as porridge, “Nefro”, infant food, syrup, “Rella”
and “Areke”. Also the leaf and stalk are used for animal food and the stalks are
also used for construction of houses and as fuel wood.

9. Finger millet

The cultivation this crop is relatively easy and it has been found to be reliable
under circumstance where other cereal crops would have failed due to drought or
would have given negligible yield.

Though millet can produce good yield on marginal soils, they also respond very
well to fertilizer application and good management. It will to fertilizer application
and management.

In Ethiopia, Fighter millet is produce in north Gondar cereal crop is cultivated from
five types of farming methods namely: (EEA,2000).

1. High land mixed agriculture

2. Low land mixed agriculture
 3. Pastoral complex farming
4. Shifting cultivation
5. Commercial agriculture.

2.3. The role of agriculture production to the economy and house hold

1. For DDP and government revenue

Agriculture contributes from time to time i.e. 76% percent in 1960’s to 45 percent
in 2004. In addition to high share of ADP agriculture contributes to government
revenue through income tax, land use tax, and export duties etc. (Haile, 2003).

2. Trade and export earning

It provides more foreign exchange earning through export of agricultural out put
like cereals live stack and etc. it is also important sector to create demand for
other sector product like manufacturing out put (EEA,2005).

3. source of employment and income:-Majority of Ethiopia people or labor

force employed in agricultural sector which provides most of income and
hold consumption (EEA, 2005).
4. Source of raw material

Agriculture provides cheap raw material for industrial sector. (Agricultural

economics-I) and also services sector. (Agricultural economics-I).

For example heather for cloth and shoes production manufacturing cotton for cloth
production and other crops for food process manufacturing and service sector.

5. Source of capital

In addition to source of raw material agriculture contributes to capital

accumulation in the world generally and less developed countries in particular by
its surplus (capital accumulation) it helps other sector.

6. Contribution for food supply

Agriculture is the key sector in food supply fore house hold consumption. Food
production and food marketing (Agricultural economics-I)
 2.4. The major determinant of cereal Crop productivity

Factor that determine cereal crop productivity can be negative or decrease

productivity and positive that increase productivity.

Factor that increase productivity are (central agricultural census commission,

2002).
Favorable weather condition
Use improve seed and proper weeding
Application of fertilizer and pouching
On the other hand factor crop productivity too much rain fall and lodging of the
crop
Shortage of rain fall
Insert (locust) diseases and other pests, (birds) damage.
Wild animals and domestic animal damage
Shortage of seed
Depletion of the soil fertility etc.

The determinant can be natural factors, socio- economic and institutional factor as
well as and man made factors.

1. Natural factor: the natural causes land degradation high intensity, rain fall
includes flood, wind, and steep reliefs are the major ones. The impact of rain
drop with tremendous energy on bare un protected soil starts process of
erosion of water. The impact of natural factors also includes diseases and
weeds (EEPRI, 2002).
2. Socio- economic and institutional factors:- Like natural factor socio-
economic and institutional factor also affect the cereal crop productivity
though their impact on farmers decision with respect to land use and
management practice such as plowing following use of manure and other
source of organic matter fertilizer, use and adoption of soil and water
conservation. Through research and development extension program and
supply of in puts (EEA, 2000).
3. Man made factors:-Cereal crop productivity also affected by man made factor
such as deforestation, over cultivation of vegetation adoption of soil and
 land conservation and management seed change production method of use
of technology etc. (EEA, 2002).

Factor of production in agriculture Production:-

The production of agriculture requires.

4. Factor of production. There are:- Hand, labor, capital and management

(economics student book of grade-11).
1. Land:- as means of agricultural production land has greater than usual
significance. Reproduced although as fertility can enhanced. With out land
there is no cultivation of cereal crop for food or it is possible, to crops or
ornamental with out soil in laboratory conditions or, under glass but these
are as yet of no significance in everyday practical and should have water
and fertile soil to produce. (Bruger, 1994.)
2. Labor:- In the production process of afticuluture labor is needed for weeding
–pouf u lavation threshing and transportation (central agriculture crops
commission 2002 form galas )
3. Capital:- is our of the in put for product of crops this include oxen tractor
and other material which help to product cereal crops (EEPRI,2002 )
4. Management (enter pruner):- this is owner of the business and manifold and
control it (EEA,2002).

Empirical evidence our determinant of cereal crop productivity

Year 1900-24 1925-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89

In put 1.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -1.0 -1.9
Out put 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 3.1 1.0
productivit -0.2 1.3 2.6 1.6 2.1 2.8
y
[[[

1. United States technological change between 1900and 1989 in this period united
stators agricultural production changes hereto tractor19910 -19 40)
improvements in seeds pesticides fertilizers from machinery and other industrial
in put (since 1930). And the introduction of hybrid corn (1930-1950 )lads to
increase productivity due to there change the country cereal crop productivity
 increase from 990 to 3.1% in the selected period since 1900(lalerow,spite and
smith ,1994 .
2. devalued and declivity in agriculture central lading and labor productive (1960-
1980) as contrail estimate of land and labor productivity in agriculture have
different pattern of change in productivity between developed and devlopeding
country .
2.4. Policy issues

For rural resident of most developed counter land is the primary means of
production use to general likely hood for house holed it is also the imianeasset that
forms to use further acclimate wealth when possible and equally important what
they transfer in from of wealth to future generation according the size of the land
that oxen the telling of security that land and through which land
disputes are adjudicated all tractors the house holed in come their desire to use
their lined their social and economic sturgeon their land there social and
economical stats in their respective communities (EEA,2000).

Ethiopia government followed different development strategist and Economic policy

thus empirical regime the development of human resource that is require to
modernize Ethiopia agricultural by introducing scientific research and better
technologies know how and practice begin the later 1940 and early 1950’s. In
1954 also as agricultural development need extension service. It was established
all the help of USAID/as agricultural training and assistance program the
technical supports and input delivery services in agriculture were central around
demonstration of the use of modern in put and this period agricultural
development strategies (programs deign indifferent time and plea 9eea, 2005).

CHAPTER THREE

MODEL SPECIFICATION AND DATA ANALYSIS

4.1. MODEL SPECIFICATION

In chapter two it has discussed both the theoretical factors that determined crop
productivity. To test or examine this factors a model which is used in many
agriculture research, so called cobs dongles production fun citron, specified as
follows.

Q= AX1al x2a2 x3a2 x4a4e B1Z1 B2 Z2B3Z3B4Z4U

This model is in non linear form, to translate it in to linear model it multiplied by

natural logarithm (ln) both sides of the equation. This will give us

Ln Q= a0+a1lnx1+a2lnx2+a3lnx3+a4lnx4+b1z1+b2z2+b3z3+b4z4+u

Where Q= out put per quintal

X1= land size per hectare

X2= age of house hold head

X3= family size (14-65, years)

X4= artificial fertilizer (UREA+DAP)

a0= lna= average total efficiency.

A1, a2, a3 and a4= marginal effect of variables

Which are expressed on logarithm?

Dummy variables

Z1= male house hold head

Z2= education grade

Z3= good market condition

Z4= finance problem

U= disturbance term or error term

B1, B2, B3, and B4= marginal effect of dummies of z 1, z2, z3, and z4 respectively on
average efficiency.

3.2 Descriptive analysis

1. Dependent variable
1; output in this paper the dependent variable is output which is produced from
different factor. For easiness of the analysis it has taken from two specific crops. This
summery statistics are presented in the following table.

Table 3.1 a barely output summery statistics

Output frequency percent

2-5 40 62.5

5.5-10 10 15.625

11-20 9 14.0625

>21 5 7.8123

Total 64 100

The above table show 15.625% household get 5.5 up to 10 punition barely and 62.5
them get 2-5 quintal.However, only 7.8125% of the respondents get more than 21
quintal.

Table 3.1b wheat data summery statistics

Output frequency percent

2-5 36 56.25

6-10 18 28.125

11-20 9 14.0625

>21 1 1.5625

This survey indicates that 56.25% of the respondent get 2-5 quintal of wheat 28.125%
of them 6-10 quintal 14.0625 quintal and only 1.5625%get >21

2. Independent variables
1;land size; farmer with large land size holdings allocate their plot to different
farming activities,that is, they canproduce varieties of crops proportionate to their
land based on different circumstances like for food,risk minimization,profitability
etc.similarly,if the farmer has enough land size,she/he
Can easily decide to participate in modern farming system.The date on land size
presented in following table.

Table 3.2a land size date in barely production

Land frequency percent

0.125-0.5 41 64.0625

0.6-1 17 26.5625

>1 6 9.375

Total 64 100

From the table can generalized that 64.0625% of the respondent 0.125-0.5 hectar
26.5625% of them 0.6-1 hectare and 9.375% have >1hectar of land in production of
barely

Table 3.2b land size data in wheat production

Land frequency percent

0.125-0.5 50 78.125

0.6-1 18 28.125

>1 6 9.375

Total 64 100

Like barely production, in wheat production, most of them small piece of land that is
78.125% of the respondant have 0.125-0.5 hectar landed for wheat production. Even
9.375% of them have >1 hectare and 28.125% have 0.6-1 hectare of land for their
production of wheat.

2 .Family size; this is measured by number of households who are greater than
14 years old and the data will be summarized as follows.

Table 3.3 family size of the respondent

Family frequency parent

1-3 28 43.75
4-6 30 46.875

7-6 6 9.375

Total 64 100

This data in dictates than 43.75% of the respondent have 1-3 family size greater than
14 years 46.875% and 9.375% have 7-9 family size.

3. Artificial fertilizer; as the name indicates fertilizer increases or productive.

This is the sum of urea and daps. It is data summery are presented in below table.

Table 3.4a fertilizer data used in wheat production

Fertilizer no of respondent parent

0 5 7.8125

0.2-0.5 39 60.937

0.6-1 20 31.25

>1 0 0

This table represent 60.937% selected farmer in the study use 0.2 up to 0.5 quintal of
fertilizer follow by 0.6 up to 1 quintal fertilizer users whom constitutes 31.25% of the
respondent.

Table 3.4b artificial fertilizer used in barely production

Fertilizer frequency percent

0 5 7.8125

0.1-0.5 36 56.34

0.6-1 20 31.25

>1 3 4.6875

Of the respondent 56.35% used 0.1-0, 5 quintal of fertilizer for fertilizer for their
barely portion followed by 0.6upto 1 quintal which constitute 31.25% of the
respondent. And 4.8675% produce without fertilizer. With contrast to4.875% who use
greater than one quintal.
4, male headed; in the farm production most of the worker needed higher
physical strength that females lack to work outside the house. This implies male
house hold head is more productive in agriculture than female head. The survey data
tells us 31.25% of the respondents are females head while 68.755% are male house
hold heads.

5, Education level; As people become more educated, they adopt technology,

and gather information easily. This means education has positive effect on
productivity the data collected from the survey shows that average education level of
the respondent is grade 2.86 approach to grade 3. The data summer statics as follows.

Table 3.5 education levels of the respondent

Education grade No of respondent percent

0 29 45.3125

1-4 20 31.25

5-8 11 17.1875

>8 4 6.25

As we can see table 3.5 almost half of the respondent are not educated i.e. 45.3125%
are illiterate, 31.25% are between grade 1 and 4 more over this 17.1875% are 5-8
grade and the remaining 6.25% are above grade eight

6, market condition; Market condition is important to produce more or not.

Besides the transport infrastructure, distance from the nearby market has its own
negative effect on technology adaptation. In such reality farmers who are living more
distance from market face problem of demand for their product.

Especially peaceable product like fruit needs immediate demand at the time of
harvest. In addition to this price fall and exploitation by local traders in harvesting
season discourage farmers produce more.

7, financial problem; farming input are important for the productive of labor
and land. The farming input like seed, chemical for different purpose, fertilizer, labor
employment etc needs cash liquidity which is beyond the capital farmers. These
shows as finance problem have negative effect on crop productivity. This study shows
45.3125%facesc financial problem in their production season while the remaining
54.6875% are not. This 54.6875% of the household not face financial problem
because of they borrow from micro finance institution and own capital. While the
remaining fear of risk or repayment they do not borrow if there is access.

8, Age of household head; since for the season that young age farmers are
close to information and have easy access to technology, the younger the respondent,
the more productive than other. The respondent’s age data are follow.

Table 3.5 age composition of the respondent

Age frequency percent

18-35 18 28.125

36-45 16 25

46-65 19 29.6875

>65 11 17.87

3.3 Estimation penult and its discussion

 3.3.1 Estimation Result
The ols estimation results for the barely output and wheat out puts are presented in
the following tables.

Table 3.7 barely stata result

Variables coefficient standard error probability

Land size 0.1569 0.1266 0.223

Age ofhh -0.1324 0.1952 0.502

Family size 0.0124 0.1536 0.936

Fertilizer 0.2809 0.1028 0.010

Sex of hh 0.6252 0.1766 0.001

Market info 0.0549 0.1770 0.751

Fam size 0.0549 0.4173 0.896

Solilferti 0.0201 0.1866 0.915

Extentiocotact 0.4971 0.2481 0.052

Wealth hh 0.1457 0.2234 0.518

Educationhh 0.3419 0.4339 0.436

Fiancé problem -0.3568 0.1181 0.005

Farm expriace 0.0549 0.4173 0.896

Access to cridte .0566 0.1770 0.751

Constant 2.494 0.7403 0.002

Table 3.8 wheat data stata result

Variable coefficient standard error probability

Land size 0.482 0.116 0.000

Age ofhh -0.197 0.178 0.276

Family size 0.112 0.153 0.467

Fertilizer 0.293 0.149 0.057

Sex of hh 0.280 0.147 0.066

Market info 0.0469 0.192 0.808

Fam size 0.242 0.225 0.290

Solilferti 0.517 0.291 0.0050

Extentiocotact 0.636 0.192 0.039

Wealth hh 0.300 0.177 0.099

Educationhh 0.885 0.375 0.024

Fiancé problem -0.419 0.103 0.000

Farm expriace 0.166 0.305 0.590

Access to cridte -0.166 0.402 0.683

Constant 0.925 0.718 0.206

. vif

Variable VIF 1/VIF

fams 2.05 0.488336

wealst 1.57 0.636078
labpro 1.54 0.649773
crdserus 1.46 0.685507
ahh 1.45 0.687693
solfr 1.41 0.711070
edlehh 1.36 0.733870
ferex 1.36 0.735738
sexh 1.30 0.768006
farsz 1.30 0.770448
Mean VIF 1.42

We test vif to check multiycoliniality and its mean is 1.42.

3.4 Discussion of the result

The relation between output and the dependent variable discussed based on the
table 3.7and 3.8 stata result.

1, Land size; as show in the above table results land size can improve crop
productivity such that a 1% change of land size lead to change of 0.15% of increase in
barely production and 0.48% of wheat production in the same direction. And in other
things being equal example 1% increase in land size in production of wheat will result
to 0.48% increase in its productivity (other variables unchanged) and this is statically
significant.
2, Households heads age; as indicated in the descriptive analysis the
younger are more productive than those who are old age farmer. In this result al so
(in table 3.7) age of household affect productivity negatively. It tells us a 1%increase
in age of household head leads to 0.13% decrease in barely production, other things
being unchanged.

3, Family size; According to this survey family labor correlated with output
positively. This means 1% change in family labor will lead to 0.012% change in barely
production and 0.11% change in wheat production in the same direction, other thing
remain constant.

4, artificial fertilizer; like family labor and land size artificial fertilizer affect
level of productivity positively. From the above table 3.7and 3.8,1% change in artificial
fertilizer will result to 0.28% change in barely output and 0.29% change in wheat
output in the same direction , other things remaining constant. For example 1%
increase of artificial fertilizer leads to 0.28% increase in wheat production at other
variable constant and it is statically significant.

5, sex of household head; The result also show that a household head who
have male is more productive than those who have not male household head. From
table 3.7 and 3.8 we can generalized that household head that have male is more
productive by 62% in barely production 28% more efficient in wheat production,
citrusparibus, and male head effect on barely production is statically significant.

6, Market condition and market information; as described in

descriptive analysis good market condition or good market access of information that
have positively effect on productivity. In similar way, the tactical analysis al so show
that those who have good market access are 5.4% more productive in barely
production and 46% more efficient Production than those who lack access to good
market, other things reaming constant

7, Education level; as all we know that education can affect productive

positive or as people educated more his/her productivity will increase. This study also
proves this fact. I.e., being grade grade 4,5and 8 is more productive by 51%, 63%
and 80% in wheat productively. And all this effects are statistically significant, other
things begin equal.

8, Finance problem; a farmer who face lack of finance by any means less
effective in production that other. This study also check this effect I. e, a farmer face
finance problem in production is less efficient

In production than other. This study also check this effect i.e., farmer face financial
problem in production is less efficient by 35% in barley production and 41% in wheat
production than others, at other thing being constant. This effect is spastically
significant in both productions.

3.4 Test of the model;

3.4.1 Test of hetroskedasticcity; the particular test of hetrokedasticity in this paper is
preusch-pagan/cook Weisberg test of hetroskedasticity.

Ho: constant variance (homo)

Chi2 (1) = 2.36

Pro>chi2=0.1244 for wheat output and

Chi2 (1) =0.54

Prob>chi2=0.4623 for barely output

This test tells us at 10%probablity the null hypothesis is accepted. Meaning there is no
hetrodasticity in both wheat and barley production data.

3.4.2 test of omitted variable: the test used here is Ramsea reset test.

This test give us:

Ho: the model has not omitted variable

F(3,33)=0.33

Prob>f=0.8039 for wheat output data and

F(3,35)=2.04

Prob>f=0.1266 for barely output data

At 10% probability the null hypothsis is accepted. This implies that there is no omitted
variable bias in both outputs data.

3.4.3 test of normality /fitness: for this paper model of fitness or normality tested by
the Cameron and Trivedis decomposition of im –test used. By using this test the
results are the following.

Table 3.9 a Cameron and Tivedis decomposition im- test for output of barely data.

Source chi2 df prob

Hetroskedasticity 55.00 54 0.4365

Skewness 22.62 16 0.1243

Kurtosis 0.28 1 0.5983

Total 77.90 71 0.2687

Table 3.9b) Cameron and Trivedis decomposition lm-test for wheat production

Source chi2 df prob

Hetroskedasticity 53.00 52 0.4354

Skewness 7.65 16 0.9585

Kurtosis 0.16 1 0.7483

Total 60.81 69 0.7483

In both output data the model is fitted at 10% probability or there is neither skwness
nor kuetosis as will as hetroskedasticity in model.

3.5 The level of cereal crop productivity and its

consequence on rural poor in Debark area
As analysis indicate the level of cereal crop productivity is not as its optimal
allocation. This is show by the different input utilization and generate different
amount of output. In other word for the same land size the farmer use different input
like fertilizer, improve seed etc. From the result we can generalized that the level of
crop productivity in the study area can increase by increasing fertilizer, improve
market, decrease financial constraint , increase education etc.

As we all know that agriculture in general and crop in particular are very important
for the rural poor in different ways among these food supply ,source of income,
source of raw material like seed and for accumulation of capital (wealth) are the
major.So,increasing crop productivity is important and key solution for poverty
reduction.

Reference

1. Tefera Lechira (2006) agriculture extension

Packaged. It’s productivity (UOG).
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3. Ethiopian economic association volume II and III
4. Ethiopian economic poverty reduction institution (2002).
5. Crop variety register, Issue No 11. June, 2008.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
6. Statistical Report on area and production of crops.
Part II A.
7. WEGAYEHU DAGNAW Addis Ababa
8. OXFORD DICTIONARY May, 2003.
A.S Horn by
Sixth edition
9. Ethiopian economic association volume 2, 2000/2001.