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SynaptiQ Solar User Manual

ANNEX C Simulation framework description

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ANNEX C: SIMULATION FRAMEWORK DESCRIPTION

OVERVIEW
The indicator Energy Simulation represents what the plant should produce under specified
environmental conditions experienced by the installation. Energy Simulation can be used for the
following applications:
• Detection of performance degradation
• Calculation of the lost revenue due to external (grid fault) or technical
(unavailability) faults
• Energy-based availability (as opposed to time-dependant availability)

The energy simulation is achieved in two steps:

Step 1: Environmental Conditions

Two main environmental conditions are currently taken into account by the Energy Simulation
reference: the irradiation (Solar Energy) and the ambient temperature.
Irradiance data can be obtained from on-site measurement devices, satellite or forecasts (see next
section). Ambient temperature is calculated by on-site measurement devices if available, otherwise by
nearby meteo stations and/or forecasts. Wind speed data come from nearby meteo stations and/or
forecasts.
Step 2: Simulation Model
The Simulation Model estimates expected yield (shown in the “Energy Simulation” indicator), based on
3E’s experience of PV power plant modelling. The digital twin of the plant, described in the SynaptiQ
Configurator (SQC), is combined with the actual environmental conditions as described in Step 1.
Both the irradiation data and the simulation model are further elaborated in the next sections.

IRRADIATION DATA
Irradiation can be estimated either by satellite, forecast or by the in-plane irradiation sensor. Based on
our experience with hourly irradiation values, the in-plane irradiation provides a better estimate of the
onsite solar irradiation compared to the satellite one (this argument stands for calibrated instruments
available in the market). On the other hand, due to technical reasons, loggers may be missing certain
time periods (e.g. 15’ values or even in some cases several hours) within the day. These missing
values result in overestimating the overall performance of a PV power plant. To correct this effect, we
complete the series of the sensor data with those from the satellite. The “hybrid” (combination of
sensor and satellite) estimate of the onsite irradiation is called “Irradiation” in SynaptiQ Solar and it is
presented as a reference.
This irradiation time series can be useful in estimating the daily energy production. However, because
of the mixed statistical properties from the sensor and the satellite, it should be used with caution
(especially for long-term results were statistical properties of the time series domain are used to
estimate the confidence in the estimators).

On-site irradiance measurement

On Site irradiance data collection is recommended to perform a precise assessment of available
resources.

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To compute the most accurate resource assessment, SynaptiQ considers the irradiation measurement
at array level, or the highest granularity level available as described here.
First of all, all modules in SynaptiQ are clustered in module groups with same module type and same
inclination/orientation. A sensor or a computed sensor (combination of available sensors on site) is
then attributed as irradiation reference to each module group.
Subplant is a further object aggregation level that allows grouping of inverters. Each subplant or plant
can also be attributed with one or more irradiation sensor. In case the module group has not been
attributed with a specific irradiation reference, it will automatically take the irradiation reference of the
subplant or of the plant to which it belongs.
The computed irradiation at inverter level is computed using the weighted average of the connected
module groups.

Higher level irradiation (and all KPI’s using Irradiation like PR and availability) are based on Inverter
aggregations.

Satellite Irradiation Data

SynaptiQ supplies an extra irradiation data for all plants. This irradiation data is supplied by the
Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on board of Meteosat Second Generation
(MSG) with the Cloud Physical Properties (CPP) algorithm of KNMI.

FIGURE 52. SOLAR IRRADIATION SOURCES

The MSG-CPP algorithm consists of three steps. The first step is to separate cloud free from cloud
contaminated and cloud filled pixels, which is done with a modified version of the cloud detection
algorithm developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) (J. Riédi,
University of Lille). In the second step the primary cloud properties (Cloud Top Temperature, Cloud
Phase, Cloud Optical Thickness and Cloud Particle size) are retrieved in an iterative manner by
simultaneously comparing satellite observed reflectances at visible (0.6 um) and near-infrared (1.6

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um) wavelengths to Look Up Tables (LUTs) of simulated reflectance of water and ice clouds for given
optical thicknesses, particle sizes and surface albedos.
These LUTs have been generated with the Doubling Adding KNMI (DAK) radiative transfer model
(Stammes, 2001). The third step is to calculate the secondary cloud properties (Cloud Water Path,
Cloud Droplet Number Concentration, Cloud Geometrical Thickness, Surface Solar Irradiance,
Precipitation occurrence and intensity) for which the retrieval largely relies on the primary cloud
properties. The retrievals are limited to satellite and solar viewing zenith angles smaller than 78°.
Comparing this source with satellite data sources as SoDa, we observe that there is a significant
improvement of accuracy.

FIGURE 53. ALTERNATIVE SATELLITE DATA SOURCES COMPARISON

SIMULATION MODEL
This paragraph describes the new and improved simulation model as launched in June 2021.
The simulation model combines the digital twin of the plant with the actual environmental conditions as
described above. It takes into account the following aspects:

• module technology (such as poly-or mono-crystalline)

• azimuth and the tilt angle of the modules
• string configuration (number of modules in series)
• efficiency curve of the inverters
• thermal properties of the installation type
• electrical losses in the cabling
• other parameters such as shadowing and tracking technology

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Calculation of energy simulation
The energy simulator is calculated per inverter, based on the active AC Power, which is in turn
calculated as follows:

where:

The module MPP current is simulated using following formula:

where:

The module MPP voltage is simulated using following formula:

where:

Loss calculations
The different loss components are explained in more details below, including relevant parameters in
SQC (when applicable).

Horizon
Far shading (from horizon) is taken into account using the horizon profile from PVGIS.

Shading
In case of a rooftop system without sheds or a building-integrated system, no shading is assumed.

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In case of a PV system with sheds (defined by the installation type: ground elevated and roof
elevated), the inter-row shading loss is simulated assuming a typical shed distance for the given
location and tilt of the panels.
The impact of shading on the direct component is obtained from the shaded fraction of the module
area as a function of time.
The impact of shading on the diffuse component is obtained by integration of the part of the sky dome
that is blocked by the row in front.
Inter-row shading is determined by the Ground Coverage Ratio (GCR), expressing the density of the
PV surface area to the total ground area of the array.
The inter-row shading is higher for PV modules placed in 'portrait' compared to 'landscape' orientation.

Soiling
By default, a soiling loss of 1% is taken into account.

IAM (Incidence Angle Modifier)

Reflection and absorption losses of the PV module depend on the incidence angle of the solar
radiation. These losses are lowest at normal incidence and increase as the angle of incidence
increases.
The IAM (Incidence Angle Modifier) loss represents the optical loss due to increased reflection and
absorption at non-zero incidence angles compared to normal incidence.
It is determined with a physical incidence angle modifier (IAM) model, using Fresnel's cand Beer's law
to model the reflection and absorption loss as a function of the incidence angle.
The physical IAM model is described in W. De Soto et al., "Improvement and validation of a model for
photovoltaic array performance", Solar Energy, vol 80, pp. 78-88, 2006.
By default, a glazing thickness of 3.2 mm, an extinction coefficient of 4 m-1 and a refractive index of
1.526 are assumed. For AR coated glass, a refractive index of 1.2 is used.

Spectral effect
By default, the spectral mismatch is currently not taken into account.

Module quality
The module quality can be specified either at module level by specifying the 'module quality factor' or
at array level by specifying the 'Power per Module Flashtest'.

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In case of Flash Test Correction a module quality factor capacity_dc / capacity_dc_rated is applied.

Module degradation
The degradation is the sum of a constant factor (i.e. the light-induced loss factor) and a factor growing
with time (yearly degradation).
By default, a light-induced loss factor of 1.3% is taken into account for mono-crystalline Si, 0.16% for
poly-crystalline Si and 0% for all other technologies.

Mismatch
By default, a mismatch loss of 1% is taken into account.

Temperature
The effect of temperature on the simulation is taken into account using a temperature model modifier:

where:

The cell temperature is estimated using the following formula:

where:

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Above formula is comparable with the PVSyst temperature model
(https://www.pvsyst.com/help/thermal_loss.htm) as:

and as, for low wind speeds, following asymptotic equivalence holds:

𝑾 𝑾
Installation type 𝑼𝟎 [ 𝒎²𝑲 ] 𝑼𝟏 [ 𝒎²𝑲 ]

Floating 27 1.2

Ground elevated 26.1 1.16

Roof elevated – ventilated backside

Roof parallel - distance > 10 cm 22.5 1

Roof elevated – insulated backside 18 0.8

Roof parallel - distance 6 - 10 cm
Not Specified

Roof parallel - distance 1 - 5 cm 16.2 0.72

Building integrated – distance 0 cm 13.5 0.6

The above values 𝑈0 , 𝑈1 correspond with the default and proposed values 𝑈𝑐 , 𝑈𝑣 of PVSyst, assuming
an average wind speed of 2.5 m/s.

Irradiance
The effect of irradiance on the simulation values is taken into account using an irradiance model
modifier:

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 where:

DC Cabling
The DC cabling loss is modelled as an equivalent resistance.
By default, a DC cabling loss of 1% at STC is taken into account.

Inverter efficiency
Determined by SQC InverterType: efficiency_eu and efficiency_max. It is assumed that the
maximum efficiency is reached at 60% of capacity_ac_rated

Minimum DC Power
Determined by SQC InverterType: power_dc_min

Maximum AC Power
Determined by SQC InverterType: capacity_ac_max or, if missing, capacity_ac_rated

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 3E Author: 3E Reference
W. Coppye SQ019.EU.EN

info@3E.eu D o c u me n t v e r s i o n d a t e
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