UKRAINE WAR: THE KHERSON COUNTEROFFENSIVE

(Maj Gen Harvijay Singh, SM)

Finally on 29 Aug, the much anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive is rolling. “If they want to survive, it is time for the
Russian military to flee” - A buoyant Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

The joy, power and punch is evidently courtesy ‘modern weapons from the west serving the dubious purpose of battle
trials’. Leading up to the counteroffensive, Ukraine claims to have:

 Hit Russian ammunition dumps and supply lines.

 Made three key bridges in the region impassable, effectively disrupting Russian supply lines forcing them to rely
on two pontoon ferry crossing points across the Dnieper.
 Targeted even Crimea with their fresh long-range capability taking on Russian air bases, ammunition dumps, and
other logistic targets. Reportedly 16 American HIMARS have been in action.

In their excitement, however, if Ukraine gets tempted to strike the strategic Kerch Strait Bridge spanning the Kerch
Strait between mainland Russia and the Kerch Peninsula of Crimea, Russia could retaliate with a big bang weapon.
Maybe, even a tactical nuclear weapon.

Ukraine claims that their troops have broken through Russian defences in several areas near the city of Kherson. This,
Ukraine is hoping to be the first phase of a wider counteroffensive seeking to gain momentum in their favour. The
timing is tactically sound. Autumn brings rain in Ukraine, rain brings slushy mud which restricts cross country
movement; Oct and Nov would have been a muddy disaster. A wait for the ground to freeze around the New Year
would be too late.

Notwithstanding the claims, the counteroffensive could be just skirmishes; time and neutral reports will tell.

Russia while acknowledging the Ukrainian offensive in the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions has said that it has failed and
the Ukrainians had suffered significant casualties. Russian forces are reportedly "under-manned" in Kherson. There
are also indications of Russia deploying fresh troops to Ukraine, “thousands of them”.

Russia's manpower challenges have not been made easy by this threat. Russia is reportedly urging Russians to sign up
for military service as authorities turn to veterans, prisoners and mercenaries to grow ranks; their gaps in recruitment
in the past has led to compounding of deficiencies in the military strength including procedures and processes.
Recruitment done during war in face of the enemy will only produce numbers not fighters.

“I think this ad hoc approach is going to keep them afloat for a little while, but don’t see it delivering the strategic goals
that they wanted, not for several years.” Ms. Massicot, Former Military Analyst at the US Department of Defence.

If the chips are down Russia is again likely to be tempted to use more destructive weapons.

Since they have chosen to launch a counteroffensive, Ukraine must be prepared and confidant. However,
underestimating Russia could be a serious mistake. The Ukrainian forces too suffer from adhoc under strength
formations. While they have been gifted a new range of weapons, the ammunition remains limited.

The Kherson counteroffensive could be game changer either way.