Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Sarasota
Real Estate
Market Update
Volume 4 Issue 4
This is not intended as solicitation for properties currently in an exclusive agreement with another Broker
Copyright © 2021 David Ranck LLC
October, 2021 Volume 4 Issue 4
In This Issue:
Should I Sell My Home Now? (Or Buy?) ...................................................... 3
Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, The Islands and Venice Combined Stats ....... 8
Resources .................................................................................................. 22
https://ranckhomes.com/Market-Update
Let's start with a little back- Vacation-home sales will continue to move
ground on the local market, higher this year, next year and for the fore-
where it may be headed and seeable future - Lawrence Yun, NAR
then look at how to make an in-
formed the decision that's right cluding an increase in worker What’s Coming in 2022?
for you. mobility. Working from home is
now an accepted norm. As a re- First, let's be clear: the real es-
Prices are up sult, workers are moving to tate market is not likely to
The median home price in Sara- where they want to live, instead crash. We've written about this
sota and Manatee counties is of being obliged to live near before and have several videos
$366,000, 23% higher than the their workplace. about it on our YouTube chan-
same period last year. Demand nel. According to Fortune.com
is up and inventory is far lower Housing Shortage "the run-up to 2008 housing
than normal. According Realtor There is a severe lack of housing bubble and the hot 2021 housing
.com the number of active list- in the U.S. as a new crop of market are very different bull
ings in the greater Sarasota area prospective homeowners come markets." Back then inventory
is only 24% of what it was in of age. The gap between single was high, owners had low home
2016. family home construction and equity and lending practices
new household formations has were to put it mildly, loose. To-
Demand is up risen to 5.24 million homes ac- day inventory is extremely low,
There are several factors result- cording to Realtor.com. For- equity is high and mortgage
ing in increased demand includ- tune.com says "We’re in the lending practices are tight.
ing the following: middle of the five-year period
The market may not crash but it
is likely to cool in 2022. And I
caution you to always remember
that real estate is Hyper-Local.
Our local trends do not neces-
sarily mirror national trends.
Keep that in mind as you con-
sume data from national
sources.
As an example, we have a high Interest rates are likely to rise afraid you will be disappointed.
number of vacation homes or sometime next year. When the Fortune.com says, "A foreclo-
snowbirds as we call them. Fed adjusts their rates in re- sure meltdown is also unlikely.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist sponse to inflation, mortgage The strong housing market
for the National Assocation of rates will follow. They've held means most of these struggling
Realtors (NAR) had this to say: off so far, but they can't hold off homeowners have positive
"One near-certain aspect of the forever. home equity. So if these home-
post-pandemic economy, when owners decide to walk away,
it comes, is the flexible work Will we see an increase in in- they can simply sell."
schedule,... Therefore, vacation- ventory? Our normal expecta-
home sales will continue to tion is that more homes will be Buyers are feeling fatigued by
move higher this year, next year listed as we go into season. But the highly competitive market.
and for the foreseeable future." that increase in supply is offset Many have made offers on mul-
by an increase in buyers visiting tiple homes, only to lose out
Local Market Cooling? the area. They come and want to each time. Some are deciding to
Are there any signs that the lo- stay (who can blame them!). wait and perhaps rent for a
cal market may cool down in while (although the rental mar-
2022? One of the leading indica- A particular factor of our local ket is also very tight). The num-
tors of a softening market is the market is that we have a large ber of offers on homes seems to
number of price decreases taken number of homeowners who have decreased recently (admit-
on active listings. When a home sell their homes as they move tedly I say this anecdotally from
doesn't sell, the owners eventu- on to the next phase of their speaking with other Realtors).
ally must decrease the price. In lives. They may move back
August of 2016 22% of active home to be near family or make
listings took a price decrease. the move into a senior lifestyle
So What Should I Do?
This past quarter 34% of list- community. Some will downsize Now we get to the main point.
ings took a price decrease. This from a large single family home Out of all of the homes we have
could be an early sign that the into something more manage- sold or helped clients buy in the
rate of price increases will slow able. past 18 months, not one that we
down. can think of was primarily mo-
If you are waiting for the end of tivated by a desire to "cash in
According to data from the local forebearance to flood the mar- on the market". Our clients
Multiple Listing Service (MLS), ket with distressed homes, I'm whether buying or selling a
in July the median home sales
price rose to a peak of $376,000 Sarasota County Sales to Median Price
and then in August dropped
slightly to $366,000. Home
prices tend to rise as we head
into "season" though, so we'll
watch what happens this fall
and winter. Nationally, many
market experts are predicting
that home price increases will
slow to between 5% and 6% for
2022.
home had tangible, personal commodate working from home Whether you're thinking of buy-
reasons for their decision. and home-schooling. Or it may ing or selling, find a Realtor that
be time to consider a move into will listen to Your Why and not
Earlier this year Lawrence Yun, a senior lifestyle community or push you in one direction be-
chief economist for NAR said he downsizing to a more manage- cause that is all they know. If
believed FOMO (Fear of Missing able home. you are over 55, consider talking
Out) was a driving factor in the with a Seniors Real Estate Spe-
market. While that may be true Don’t decide cialist that understands the spe-
in general, we haven't found it based solely cial circumstances of senior
to be the main motivation for homeowners. They will also be
our clients. And it probably
on the connected to other sources such
shouldn't be your main reason numbers as Senior Concierge Services, Fi-
for selling or buying. Don't nancial Advisors, and Lifestyle
make your decision based solely Once you know your "why" you Communities.
on the numbers. have a foundation on which to
make an informed decision. This is a lot to take in but to
A house is more than a structure Learn what your options are and sum it all up, start with your
- it is your home. Ask yourself evaluate the alternatives. You personal Why. Once you know
why you want to buy or sell. may find that your best choice is that, discover your options and
Have you been thinking about to stay where you are. But if you then you will have the right in-
making a lifestyle change? Per- have been considering making a formation to make the right de-
haps the past year has kindled a change in the future, it may be cision.
desire to be near family. Maybe in your best interest to acceler-
you want a larger space to ac- ate your plans.
Yr Change ADOM
The change over the same pe- Active Days on Market
riod last year
Avg
Qtr Change Average
The change over the last quarter
Med
Active Days on Market Median
The period of time from the first
date listed to when the home PPSF
went under contract Price per square foot
Condo SFH
Condominiums, Villas and Single Family Home
Townhomes.
5000
In a trend that spans most of
our area, the number of sales 4500
fell in the 3rd quarter. Low in-
4000
ventory and buyer fatigue may
be playing a role. Buyers are 3500
telling us they are weary of los- 3000
ing out in multiple offer scenar-
2500
ios and some are concerned
about high prices. 2000
3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
Sales Forecast
40
20
0
3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
ADOM Forecast
ADOM
Sales
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
3,000
2,750
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
All Types 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
Sales 3286 3214 3330 3031 4219 4660 4744 5110 3659
Avg Price $396,280 $416,617 $441,667 $423,242 $470,157 $508,855 $587,966 $632,268 $581,644
Med Price $300,000 $310,000 $317,500 $318,000 $335,000 $360,000 $374,900 $401,050 $415,800
Avg PPSF $200 $211 $228 $210 $226 $238 $281 $296 $340
Med PPSF $169 $172 $180 $175 $184 $192 $206 $226 $241
ADOM 94 86 81 79 84 70 58 36 20
SFH 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
Sales 2206 2024 1989 1984 2767 3005 2692 3022 2371
Avg Price $434,300 $457,894 $464,098 $473,451 $524,909 $576,002 $635,955 $688,307 $648,832
Med Price $333,375 $343,750 $350,000 $350,000 $376,000 $403,040 $425,000 $459,000 $465,000
Avg PPSF $196 $200 $207 $206 $226 $233 $255 $279 $283
Med PPSF $174 $176 $183 $181 $191 $199 $211 $231 $247
ADOM 88 81 80 76 80 0 0 0 0
Condo 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
Sales 1080 1190 1341 1047 1452 1655 2052 2088 1288
Avg Price $318,620 $346,411 $408,396 $328,099 $365,819 $386,935 $525,010 $546,678 $457,963
Med Price $232,377 $245,000 $256,500 $248,000 $249,450 $270,000 $289,500 $315,000 $320,000
Avg PPSF $210 $230 $258 $217 $226 $248 $315 $318 $444
Med PPSF $156 $161 $169 $164 $166 $177 $191 $212 $219
ADOM 105 95 84 86 93 85 68 44 22
Sales Forecast
Price Forecast
ADOM Forecast
900
In a trend that spans most of
800
our area, the number of sales
fell in the 2nd quarter. Low in- 700
ventory and buyer fatigue may 600
be playing a role. Buyers are
500
telling us they are weary of los-
ing out in multiple offer scenar- 400
ios and some are concerned
300
about high prices. 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
Sales Forecast
Price Forecast
ADOM Forecast
Sales Forecast
Price Forecast
ADOM Forecast
1100
In a trend that spans most of
our area, the number of sales 1000
fell in the 2nd quarter. Low in-
900
ventory and buyer fatigue may
be playing a role. Buyers are 800
telling us they are weary of los-
700
ing out in multiple offer scenar-
ios and some are concerned 600
about high prices. 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
Sales Forecast
Price Forecast
ADOM Forecast
Resources
The following sources are quoted or referenced in this report:
Realtor.com
US Housing Supply Continues to Lag Household Formations
https://www.realtor.com/research/topics/housing-supply/
Fortune
Why we won’t see a housing market crash anytime soon
https://fortune.com/2021/08/30/housing-market-crash-home-prices-us-august-2021/
NAR
Vacation Homes Will Defy Any Market Slowdown
https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2021/09/nar-vacation-homes-will-defy-any-
market-slowdown
Fortune
A shock is headed for the housing market
https://fortune.com/2021/09/05/housing-market-inventory-shock/
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/
Sun Stats
Northport - Sarasota - Bradenton MSA: Metric Comparison
https://sunstats.floridarealtors.org/chart# (Login Required)
Data Source
Unless otherwise noted, the data used in this report was derived from the Stellar MLS system. Some prop-
erty styles such as mobile homes are not included.
https://ranckhomes.com/Market-Update
www.VictoriaSellsSarasota.com