Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On

Least-cost pathway: Such scenarios identify the least Source: Any process, activity or mechanism that releases a
expensive combination of mitigation options to fulfil a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse
specific climate target. A least-cost scenario is based on gas or aerosol into the atmosphere.
the premise that, if an overarching climate objective is set,
society wants to achieve this at the lowest possible costs over
time. It also assumes that global actions start at the base
year of model simulations (usually close to the current year)
and are implemented following a cost-optimal (cost-efficient)
sharing of the mitigation burden between current and future
generations depending on the social discount rate.

Likely chance: A likelihood greater than 66 per cent chance.

Used in this assessment to convey the probabilities of
meeting temperature limits.

Mitigation: In the context of climate change, mitigation

relates to a human intervention to reduce the sources, or
enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Examples include
using fossil fuels more efficiently for industrial processes
or electricity generation, switching to solar energy or wind
power, improving the insulation of buildings and expanding
forests and other ‘sinks’ to remove greater amounts of CO 2
from the atmosphere.

Nationally determined contribution (NDC): Submissions

by countries that have ratified the Paris Agreement which
presents their national efforts to reach the Paris Agreement’s
long-term temperature goal of limiting warming to well below
2°C. New or updated NDCs were expected to be submitted
in 2020 and should be submitted every five years thereafter.
NDCs thus represent a country’s current ambition/target for
reducing emissions nationally.

Offset (in climate policy): A unit of CO 2 e emissions that

is reduced, avoided or sequestered to compensate for
emissions occurring elsewhere.

Recovery-type measure: Fiscal, monetary or regulatory

intervention by a government to reinvigorate economic
activity in response to a crisis.

Rescue-type measure: Immediate fiscal, monetary or

regulatory intervention by a government to protect citizens’
lives and socioeconomic well-being and/or to provide
emergency support to businesses and the economy in
response to a crisis.

Scenario: A description of how the future may unfold based

on ‘if-then’ propositions. Scenarios typically include an initial
socioeconomic situation and a description of the key driving
forces and future changes in emissions, temperature or other
climate change-related variables.

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP): Scenarios of

projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100. They
are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
associated with different climate policies scenarios.

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Foreword
Climate change is no longer a future problem. It is a 'now'
problem. As we saw this year, devastating impacts are
spreading across the globe and growing ever stronger. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change told us a few
months ago that we have a 50 per cent chance of exceeding
a 1.5°C temperature threshold within the next few decades.
Climate action so far has been characterized by weak
promises, not yet delivered. As the Emissions Gap
Report 2021 shows, the updated nationally determined
contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement fall into
the same trap. These pledges only take 7.5 per cent off
predicted 2030 emissions, compared to the previous round
of commitments. This is far from adequate. Reductions of
30 per cent are needed to stay on the least-cost pathway for
2°C and 55 per cent for 1.5°C.
If nations only implement unconditional NDCs as they
stand, we are likely to hit global warming of about 2.7°C by
the end of the century. Current net-zero pledges could cut
another 0.5°C off global warming – but these pledges are
still ambiguous, delayed in many cases and not folded into
NDCs. At the same time, this year’s Emissions Gap Report
shows that the opportunity to use pandemic recovery
spending to reduce emissions has been largely missed.
To get on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C, the world
needs to take an additional 28 gigatons of carbon dioxide
equivalent (GtCO 2 e) off annual emissions by 2030, over and
above what is promised in updated unconditional NDCs. For
the 2°C Paris Agreement target, the additional need is lower:
a drop in annual emissions of 13 GtCO 2 e by 2030. To be
clear: we have eight years to make the plans, put in place
the policies, implement them and ultimately deliver the cuts.
The clock is ticking loudly.
Nations must put in place the policies to meet their new
commitments and start implementing them immediately.
Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On
Then they must zero in on net zero, ensuring these long-
term commitments are linked to the NDCs, and that action
is brought forward. It is time to get the policies in place to
back the raised ambitions and, again, start implementing
them. This cannot happen in five years. Or in three years.
This needs to start happening now.
We can still do it. As this year’s Emissions Gap Report
shows, there is huge potential for large cuts in methane
emissions from the oil and gas, waste and agriculture
sectors. Carbon markets could help to accelerate action
by decreasing mitigation costs. COVID-19 recovery funding
can still be greened. And as previous UNEP Emissions Gap
Reports show, there is potential in nature-based solutions,
renewables, energy efficiency and so much more.
We should not despair. We have already shown that climate
action can make a difference. In 11 years, from 2010 to
2021, we have put in place policies that will lower annual
emissions by 11 GtCO 2 e in 2030 compared to what would
have happened without these policies. But we need to make
the difference, not a difference. We cannot keep doing the
same things and expect a better result.
The world has to wake up to the imminent peril we face as
a species. We need to go firm. We need to go fast. And we
need to start doing it now.
Inger Andersen
Executive Director
United Nations Environment Programme
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