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Expected payoff of any capacity alternative

= Probability of moderate acceptance x Payoff of moderate acceptance + Probability of


strong acceptance x Payoff of strong acceptance

= 0.40 x Payoff of moderate acceptance + 0.60 x Pay off of strong acceptance

Thus Pay off for small job shop option

= 0.40 x 24000 + 0.6 x 54000

= 9600 + 32400

= $42,000

Pay off for medium job shop option

= 0.40 x 20000 + 0.60 x 64000

= 8000 + 38400

= $ 46,400

Pay off for large job shop option

= - 0.40 x 2000 + 0.60 x 96000

= - 800 + 57600

= $56,800

Since expected payoff for large job shop option is highest, firm should make large job
shop option as capacity choice

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