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technical pullback on the cards...”, fueled by weakening of momentum in crude oil
and fall in industrial commodities 18114
• Over past one month we have observed that rallies are now getting bigger along with
shallow correction, indicating structural improvement that makes us confident to Target @
upgrade target from 16600 to 17500 for coming months while psychological mark of 17500
16000 remains strong support which we do not expect to breach. Hence, dips should
be utilised as incremental buying opportunity. Our constructive bias is further
validated by following observations:
• A) Since October 2021 peak of 18600, on two occasions post falling channel breakout 16794
Nifty has retraced 80% of preceding corrective phase. At current juncture, similar
breakout has panned out and we expect Nifty to maintain the same rhythm and head
towards 17500 being 80% retracement of two month decline (18100-15200)
16410
• B) Long term sentiment indicator : Since 2008, on six occasions index has formed
durable bottom after percentage of stocks above 200 DMA (Nifty 500 universe) has
touched the extreme low reading below 15. Subsequent rallies in each of these Support
instances measured minimum 20% from lows 200 days @ 16000
• C) The sharp decline in crude oil prices coupled with industrial commodities and cool 15671 15735
off in India VIX highlights improvement in market sentiment that augurs well for
EMA
extension of ongoing rally 15183
• The Nifty midcap and small cap indices mirrored the move in benchmark and staged Breakout from falling trend line since October on daily RSI validates positive bias
Capital goods L&T, ABB, BEL, Siemens ,Thermax, SKF Bearing, Ingersoll Rand. Ksb pumps 30 Outperformers
Bargain Buy
-------- Potential Returns (%) --------
Consumption & Retail ITC ,Asian Paints, Titan, Havells, KKCL, Trent, TTK Prestige, Astral 25 BFSI, Auto, Capital
20 IT, Metals, Consumption goods
Maruti Suzuki, Ashok Leyland, Gaberial India, MM Forging, Minda Inds,
Auto 15
Balkrishna Inds
10
Infra and Realty Ultratech Cement ,DLF, Brigade Enterprise, Phoenix Mills 5
Neutral Market Performers
Pharma & Chemicals Sunpharma, Dr Reddy, Abbott India, Aster DM, Caplin Point, Navin Fluorine 0 Realty & Infra Pharma
Metal Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco. Coal India, JSL -5
Adani Port, Indian Hotels, Mahindra Holidays, TCI Express, Greaves Cotton, -10
Returns Ranking Returns Ranking
Others -15
Philips Carbon, Kajaria Ceramics, Dr Lal path, Concor 1 2 3 4 5 2
-20 -------- Technical Ranking --------
Source: Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research * Ranking improves from 1 to 5
Falling channel breakout confirms conclusion of two months
corrective phase…
Nifty – Weekly Bar Chart Retraced 80% of Technical Outlook
Similar to previous instances, we expect preceding decline
18604
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index to retrace 80% of preceding decline 18351 o The Nifty resolved out of two
and head towards 17500 18114 Target @ months falling channel, displaying
17500 rejuvenation of upward momentum
that makes us confident to revise
target towards 17500 for coming
16410 month while key support is placed at
15671 16000.
15183
o Since October 2021 peak of 18600,
on two occasions post falling
Key Support is placed at 16000 as it
channel breakout Nifty has retraced
is 50% retracement of current rally
80% of preceding corrective phase.
off June low of 15183
At current juncture, we expect index
to maintain the same rhythm as 80%
Weekly RSI clocked breakout from 6
3
Revival in sentiment indicator bodes well for next leg of up
move…
Nifty – Monthly Bar Chart • Percentage of stocks above 200 DMA of Nifty 500 universe has recorded extreme low reading of 14 at June low of 15200
• Since 2008 reading below 15 has always lead to a durable bottom in each of the six instances
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• Subsequent rallies in Nifty have measured minimum 20% from lows on each occasion
21%
31%
31%
24% 25%
43%
16 13 14
14
10 8
1
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Target @ o Bank Nifty has relatively outperformed
coming months. Use dips towards 36000-35500 levels as an 39424
38765 38700 the benchmark index during the
incremental buying opportunity
37708 market correction and the subsequent
36083 pullback as can be seen in the Bank
Nifty/Nifty ratio chart. It has
34019 registered a breakout above the falling
supply line joining highs since January
32155 32290 2021 highlighting strength and
30405 continuation of the outperformance
52 Weeks
EMA Key support @ psychological mark of 35000 o The rallies are getting bigger in
levels being the confluence of: magnitude while declines are smaller
- 100 days EMA placed at 35000 and short lived during last month
- 80% retracement of most recent up move indicating improving price structure,
(34463-37011) which makes us confident to revise
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Year Decline (in %) 2021 has been captured in a well defined falling channel wherein intermediate
2013 28 pullbacks have been retraced by 80% retracement.
2015 21
2018 28 28%
Current 25
Average 26
21%
Weekly RSI has generated bullish crossover above its 9 period average thus validates positive bias
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zone in coming weeks @9800
Year Decline (in %)
2013 36 40%
2015 31
2018 40
Current 34
Average 36
31%
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India continues to relatively outperform EM Over past one year while MSCI
basket even in ongoing corrective phase EM index has corrected over
50% from highs, India has
relatively outperform as
benchmark corrected only 18%
125
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Brent prices on expected
124
Key resistance is placed at $ 125 levels, while a breach below recent low of $ 98 115 lines traded with corrective
will open further downside towards $ 91 levels in the coming months bias on breach of the rising
trend line joining the lows of
November 2021 ($ 66) and
April 2022 ($ 97)
98
86 Brent during last month has
shown further signs of
71 weakness based on the
following observations:
66 Formation of lower high-low
in the monthly chart after
Lower high-low in the monthly chart and seven months
a breakdown below the rising trend line Trend line breakdown in 14
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Bargain Buy Out Performer o Banking and Capital Goods stocks
have relatively outperformed the
103.00 benchmark index during last months
pullback. Both the index is currently
IT Capital Goods placed at outperformance quadrant
with improvement in both
momentum and relative term. We
102.00 expect them to continue with their
relative outperformance
Banks
FMCG
PSU o Auto index has rallied to a fresh all
Metal
time high during last month. It
Healthcare continues to remain in the
RS Momentum
101.00
outperformance quadrant. We
expect the outperformance to
100.00
Auto o Metal stocks have seen a sharp
correction and are currently placed
near their major supports, thus
providing favourable risk-reward set
up for bargain buy opportunity
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• To closely gauge the underlying strength in respective sectors vis-à-vis the benchmark, we analyse the Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator. As the name suggests, it is a
comparative measure of strength vis-à-vis a benchmark or a sector
• While the RSC line is rising, the sector is outperforming the general market i.e. it is either rising faster than the benchmark in an up trending market or going down less, in a down
trending market or even rising. While the RSC line is falling, the sector is underperforming the broad equity market. If the market is going up, the sector is going up less or may be even
going down. If the market is going down when the RSC line is falling, the sector is going down more than the market. A flat RSC line indicates in line market performance going up or
down by the same magnitude
• The purpose of this exercise is to identify those sectors that are outperforming and avoid sectors that are underperforming
BSE Healthcare – Monthly Chart BSE Healthcare Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison Technical Outlook – Pharma & Chemicals
BSE FMCG– Monthly Chart BSE FMCG Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison Technical Outlook - Consumption
• The consumption sector including
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staples made a strong rebound last
12850 month amid sharp correction in
commodity prices
• Going forward, we expect sector to
trade with positive bias given a sharp
reversal on relative ratio and strong
bull candle last month leading FMCG
8496 index to new highs. Discretionary
6782 space is expected to witness stock
specific action
• Technically we like ITC, Asian Paints,
Titan, Havells, Kewal Kiran, Trent,
TTK prestige, Astral
BSE Capital Goods – Monthly Chart BSE CG vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison Technical Outlook- Capital goods
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Index outperforms after being resilient in earlier •
months relative outperformance as most
stocks made back to their new 52-
week highs
• The sector’s relative ratio with the
index continues to trend up and
indicate extended outperformance in
coming month
• Stocks like L&T, ABB, BEL, Thermax,
SKF, Ingersoll Rand, KSB Pumps are
technically preferred
BSE Metal – Monthly Chart BSE Metal vs. Sensex– Relative Comparison Technical Outlook - Metal
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Ratio line continued decline with lower high-low • The metal index held june lows as it
retested its 2021 breakout levels after
sharp decline over 4 months led
prices to oversold trajectory
• In relative terms, the index is
expected to extend underperformance
while a technical bounce cannot be
ruled out from oversold trajectory
• Technically, Hindalco, Tata Steel,
JSW Steel, Jindal stainless are priced
at key support and offer favourable
risk-reward
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27-Jul FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 31-Jul Manufacturing PMI
29-Jul PCE Deflator MoM 31-Jul Non-manufacturing PMI
1-Aug S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 1-Aug Caixin China PMI Mfg
3-Aug S&P Global US Services/composite PMI 3-Aug Caixin China PMI Service/Composite
5-Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 9-Aug New Yuan Loans CNY
5-Aug Change in Private Payrolls 15-Aug Industrial Production YoY
10-Aug CPI MoM 15-Aug Retail Sales YTD YoY
16-Aug Industrial Production MoM 19-Aug FX Net Settlement - Clients CNY
18-Aug Existing Home Sales MoM 18-Aug Swift Global Payments CNY
18-Aug Initial Jobless Claims 27-Aug Industrial Profits YoY
25-Aug GDP Annualized QoQ 31-Aug Manufacturing PMI
26-Aug PCE Deflator MoM 31-Aug Non-manufacturing PMI
In this section, we focus on the relative performance of the BSE sectoral indices. The adjacent scatter chart highlights the relative performance of various sectors of the BSE relative to the
Sensex with the y-axis plotting the relative price momentum and the x-axis plotting the relative price. The chart is then subdivided into four quadrants. The details of each quadrants has been
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explained in the notes at the end of the report.
Out Performer quadrant: Top right is “Leadership” quadrant, which represents a sector that has strengthened in relative price and momentum vis-à-vis the Sensex.
Market Performer quadrant: Bottom right is the “Weakening” quadrant where the relative price of a sector has started to deteriorate and momentum has started to slow.
Neutral quadrant: Bottom left is the “Lagging” quadrant where the relative price of a sector has become negative with momentum suggesting underperformance vis-à-vis the benchmark.
Bargain Buy quadrant: Top left is the “Improving” quadrant where the relative price trend of the sector has started to rise with momentum.
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
research@icicidirect.com
17
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