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Technical Strategy:

Nifty to aim 17500 amid wall of worries…


August 2022

Research Analysts

Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte, CMT Ninad Tamhanekar, CMT


dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com ninad.tamhanekar@icicisecurities.com

Pabitro Mukherjee Vinayak Parmar


pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com

July 28, 2022


Nifty to aim 17500 amid wall of worries…

Technical Outlook.. NSE Nifty Daily Bar Chart


• The equity benchmark staged a strong comeback and surpassed our target of 16600
as discussed in the July edition of this report titled “Sentiment at bearish extremes, 18604
Nifty has retraced 80% of prevailing corrective
18350 phase after falling channel breakout

MOMENTUM PICK
technical pullback on the cards...”, fueled by weakening of momentum in crude oil
and fall in industrial commodities 18114
• Over past one month we have observed that rallies are now getting bigger along with
shallow correction, indicating structural improvement that makes us confident to Target @
upgrade target from 16600 to 17500 for coming months while psychological mark of 17500
16000 remains strong support which we do not expect to breach. Hence, dips should
be utilised as incremental buying opportunity. Our constructive bias is further
validated by following observations:
• A) Since October 2021 peak of 18600, on two occasions post falling channel breakout 16794
Nifty has retraced 80% of preceding corrective phase. At current juncture, similar
breakout has panned out and we expect Nifty to maintain the same rhythm and head
towards 17500 being 80% retracement of two month decline (18100-15200)
16410
• B) Long term sentiment indicator : Since 2008, on six occasions index has formed
durable bottom after percentage of stocks above 200 DMA (Nifty 500 universe) has
touched the extreme low reading below 15. Subsequent rallies in each of these Support
instances measured minimum 20% from lows 200 days @ 16000
• C) The sharp decline in crude oil prices coupled with industrial commodities and cool 15671 15735
off in India VIX highlights improvement in market sentiment that augurs well for
EMA
extension of ongoing rally 15183
• The Nifty midcap and small cap indices mirrored the move in benchmark and staged Breakout from falling trend line since October on daily RSI validates positive bias

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a decent pullback after approaching price wise maturity of 25% and 40%,
respectively. Key point to highlight is that, the breadth indicator, measured by
percentage of stocks above 50 day moving average have jumped from 22% at the
beginning of July to current reading of 77% indicating broad based nature of rally
that bodes well for durability of ongoing pullback and paves the way for 7-8% up
move, respectively

Sectors Top Picks Relative rotation graph projection


BFSI SBI, Axis Bank, HDFC, Canara Bank, Bajaj Finance, Sundaram Finance
Infosys,TCS , Reliance Industries, L&T Infotech, Coforge, Happiest Minds, 40
IT & Telecom Returns Ranking Returns Ranking
KPIT Technology 35

Capital goods L&T, ABB, BEL, Siemens ,Thermax, SKF Bearing, Ingersoll Rand. Ksb pumps 30 Outperformers
Bargain Buy
-------- Potential Returns (%) --------

Consumption & Retail ITC ,Asian Paints, Titan, Havells, KKCL, Trent, TTK Prestige, Astral 25 BFSI, Auto, Capital
20 IT, Metals, Consumption goods
Maruti Suzuki, Ashok Leyland, Gaberial India, MM Forging, Minda Inds,
Auto 15
Balkrishna Inds
10
Infra and Realty Ultratech Cement ,DLF, Brigade Enterprise, Phoenix Mills 5
Neutral Market Performers
Pharma & Chemicals Sunpharma, Dr Reddy, Abbott India, Aster DM, Caplin Point, Navin Fluorine 0 Realty & Infra Pharma
Metal Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco. Coal India, JSL -5

Adani Port, Indian Hotels, Mahindra Holidays, TCI Express, Greaves Cotton, -10
Returns Ranking Returns Ranking
Others -15
Philips Carbon, Kajaria Ceramics, Dr Lal path, Concor 1 2 3 4 5 2
-20 -------- Technical Ranking --------
Source: Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research * Ranking improves from 1 to 5
Falling channel breakout confirms conclusion of two months
corrective phase…
Nifty – Weekly Bar Chart Retraced 80% of Technical Outlook
Similar to previous instances, we expect preceding decline
18604

MOMENTUM PICK
index to retrace 80% of preceding decline 18351 o The Nifty resolved out of two
and head towards 17500 18114 Target @ months falling channel, displaying
17500 rejuvenation of upward momentum
that makes us confident to revise
target towards 17500 for coming
16410 month while key support is placed at
15671 16000.
15183
o Since October 2021 peak of 18600,
on two occasions post falling
Key Support is placed at 16000 as it
channel breakout Nifty has retraced
is 50% retracement of current rally
80% of preceding corrective phase.
off June low of 15183
At current juncture, we expect index
to maintain the same rhythm as 80%
Weekly RSI clocked breakout from 6

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retracement of two month decline
months falling trend line while sustaining (18100-15200) is placed at 17500
above its nine period average, indicating
positive bias o On the oscillator front, weekly RSI
10790
clocked breakout from falling trend
line which is in placed since October
2021 while MACD logged a bullish
crossover that validates
aforementioned bullish evidences
Weekly MACD logged a bullish crossover above its nine period average, indicating acceleration of upward momentum

Source: Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research

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Revival in sentiment indicator bodes well for next leg of up
move…
Nifty – Monthly Bar Chart • Percentage of stocks above 200 DMA of Nifty 500 universe has recorded extreme low reading of 14 at June low of 15200
• Since 2008 reading below 15 has always lead to a durable bottom in each of the six instances

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• Subsequent rallies in Nifty have measured minimum 20% from lows on each occasion

21%
31%
31%

24% 25%

43%

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Nifty 500 – % of stocks above 200 DMA
Sentiment indicator
reversed from bearish
extreme with a reading
of 14

16 13 14
14
10 8
1

Source: Trading View, ICICI Direct Research 4


Bank Nifty: Use dips as buying opportunity for up move
towards 38700
Bank Nifty – Weekly Bar Chart Technical Outlook
41829
Index to extend the current up move towards 38700 levels in

MOMENTUM PICK
Target @ o Bank Nifty has relatively outperformed
coming months. Use dips towards 36000-35500 levels as an 39424
38765 38700 the benchmark index during the
incremental buying opportunity
37708 market correction and the subsequent
36083 pullback as can be seen in the Bank
Nifty/Nifty ratio chart. It has
34019 registered a breakout above the falling
supply line joining highs since January
32155 32290 2021 highlighting strength and
30405 continuation of the outperformance
52 Weeks
EMA Key support @ psychological mark of 35000 o The rallies are getting bigger in
levels being the confluence of: magnitude while declines are smaller
- 100 days EMA placed at 35000 and short lived during last month
- 80% retracement of most recent up move indicating improving price structure,
(34463-37011) which makes us confident to revise

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


target price higher towards 38700 in
coming months being the confluence
of high of April 2022 and the 61.8%
20405
retracement of the last eight months
Weekly stochastic closed above its previous high and remain in strong up trend decline (41829-32155)

o The up move towards 38700 levels is


likely to be in a non-liner manner,
bouts of volatility owing to volatile
Bank Nifty/Nifty ratio chart global cues should not be seen as
Breakout above a falling supply line joining highs since January 2021
negative instead dips towards 36000-
highlights relative outperformance
35500 should be capitalised as a
buying opportunity

Source: Bloomberg, Spider, ICICI Direct Research


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Nifty Midcap Index: Nifty midcap index to head towards
30000 levels …
Nifty Midcap 100 – Weekly Chart Target
On expected lines, Mid cap index rebounded after approaching price wise @30000
Intermediate Correction maturity of intermediate correction 25%. The corrective move since October

MOMENTUM PICK
Year Decline (in %) 2021 has been captured in a well defined falling channel wherein intermediate
2013 28 pullbacks have been retraced by 80% retracement.

2015 21
2018 28 28%
Current 25
Average 26

21%

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28% The current up move is backed by improvement in market breadth as
currently 65% stocks of Nifty Midcap index are trading above 50 days EMA
compared to June reading of 19%, signifying broader market participation
that makes us believe index would maintain the rhythm by retracing 80%
recent decline and challenge upper band of channel placed at 30000

Weekly RSI has generated bullish crossover above its 9 period average thus validates positive bias

Source: Bloomberg, Spidersoftware, ICICI Direct Research 7


Small Cap index: Index to challenge upper band of falling
channel…
Nifty Small cap 100 – Weekly Chart • The Small cap Index staged a bounce after approaching price wise maturity of historical
intermediate correction of ~40%. This corrective move has taken a shape of falling channel
Intermediate Correction • We expect index to resolve above upper band of falling channel and head towards 9700-9800 Target

MOMENTUM PICK
zone in coming weeks @9800
Year Decline (in %)
2013 36 40%
2015 31
2018 40
Current 34
Average 36
31%

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36%

The formation of higher high-low supported by improving market


breadth as currently 56% stocks of Nifty 100 universe are trading
above 50 days EMA compared to June reading of 21%, highlighting
rejuvenation of upward momentum

Falling trend line breakout on RSI suggest further positive momentum

Source: Bloomberg, Spidersoftware, ICICI Direct Research


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Indian equities outperformance to emerging markets to
continue…
Nifty MSCI Emerging Market

MOMENTUM PICK
India continues to relatively outperform EM  Over past one year while MSCI
basket even in ongoing corrective phase EM index has corrected over
50% from highs, India has
relatively outperform as
benchmark corrected only 18%

 On longer degree charts, last


year MSCI India/ MSCI EM ratio
line gave a breakout from five
year consolidation. Historically
such breakouts has resulted in
a relative outperformance of
India against EM index for

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


following few years
MSCI India Index vs MSCI Emerging Market - ratio line chart

A breakout from multi-year range has


resulted in outperformance of MSCI India
in the next few years

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research


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Brent Futures ($104): Lower high-low in monthly chart signals
weakening of momentum..
Weekly Bar Chart
138

125

MOMENTUM PICK
 Brent prices on expected
124
Key resistance is placed at $ 125 levels, while a breach below recent low of $ 98 115 lines traded with corrective
will open further downside towards $ 91 levels in the coming months bias on breach of the rising
trend line joining the lows of
November 2021 ($ 66) and
April 2022 ($ 97)
98
86  Brent during last month has
shown further signs of
71 weakness based on the
following observations:
66  Formation of lower high-low
in the monthly chart after
Lower high-low in the monthly chart and seven months
a breakdown below the rising trend line  Trend line breakdown in 14

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


joining previous major lows signals week RSI joining lows of
52 Weeks weakness and extension of the last two March 2020 and December
36 EMA months decline 2021 highlighting signs of
weakening of momentum

16  Going ahead, we expect


rallies to be smaller in
magnitude and short lived
with elongated declines.
Brent prices has stiff
resistance at $125 levels.
While a breach and close
below recent low of $ 98 will
Long term trend line breakdown highlights signs of weakening of momentum
open downside towards the
52 weeks EMA placed $ 91
levels in the coming months

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research


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Sector in focus: BFSI, Capital Goods, Auto, IT, Metals

ISEC Relative strength model – Weekly Outlook

MOMENTUM PICK
Bargain Buy Out Performer o Banking and Capital Goods stocks
have relatively outperformed the
103.00 benchmark index during last months
pullback. Both the index is currently
IT Capital Goods placed at outperformance quadrant
with improvement in both
momentum and relative term. We
102.00 expect them to continue with their
relative outperformance
Banks
FMCG
PSU o Auto index has rallied to a fresh all
Metal
time high during last month. It
Healthcare continues to remain in the
RS Momentum

101.00
outperformance quadrant. We
expect the outperformance to

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


Power
continue

100.00
Auto o Metal stocks have seen a sharp
correction and are currently placed
near their major supports, thus
providing favourable risk-reward set
up for bargain buy opportunity

o IT stocks are showing initial signs of


99.00

a technical pullback after the last six


months correction. IT stocks are
placed at key support and are
Neutral Market Performer extremely oversold thus provides
98.00
98.00 99.00 100.00 101.00 102.00 103.00 104.00 105.00
bargain buy opportunity
Relative Strength
BSEBANKEX BSEFMCG BSEAUTO BSECAP GOOD BSEPSU BSEHEALTH BSEINFO BSEMETAL BSEPOWER o Pharma stocks are likely to witness
stock specific activity and perform
Source: ICICI Direct Research, BSE at par with the market
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Sectoral indices – Relative to benchmarks

Relative Strength Comparative: Evaluating underlying strength

MOMENTUM PICK
• To closely gauge the underlying strength in respective sectors vis-à-vis the benchmark, we analyse the Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator. As the name suggests, it is a
comparative measure of strength vis-à-vis a benchmark or a sector

• While the RSC line is rising, the sector is outperforming the general market i.e. it is either rising faster than the benchmark in an up trending market or going down less, in a down
trending market or even rising. While the RSC line is falling, the sector is underperforming the broad equity market. If the market is going up, the sector is going up less or may be even
going down. If the market is going down when the RSC line is falling, the sector is going down more than the market. A flat RSC line indicates in line market performance going up or
down by the same magnitude

• The purpose of this exercise is to identify those sectors that are outperforming and avoid sectors that are underperforming

BSE Healthcare – Monthly Chart BSE Healthcare Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison Technical Outlook – Pharma & Chemicals

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26980
Index bounced off 38.2% retracement
• The BSE healthcare index formed
of 2020-2021 rally
higher high-low on monthly chart after
three month correction leading prices
18842 to oversold trajectory
• Relative ratio line is still trending
down although paused last month.
We expect gradual recovery in the
pharma space in coming month
• Technically, our top picks in the
sector are Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy,
18842 Abbott India, Aster DM, Caplin point,
Navin Fluorine

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research


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Sectoral Indices – Relative to benchmarks

BSE FMCG– Monthly Chart BSE FMCG Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison Technical Outlook - Consumption
• The consumption sector including

MOMENTUM PICK
staples made a strong rebound last
12850 month amid sharp correction in
commodity prices
• Going forward, we expect sector to
trade with positive bias given a sharp
reversal on relative ratio and strong
bull candle last month leading FMCG
8496 index to new highs. Discretionary
6782 space is expected to witness stock
specific action
• Technically we like ITC, Asian Paints,
Titan, Havells, Kewal Kiran, Trent,
TTK prestige, Astral

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


BSE IT – Weekly Chart BSE IT vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison Technical Outlook - IT
Risk reward favourable after 38713
• The IT index held June lows and
last months base formation underwent base formation over few
weeks after 30% correction from
highs

16586 • We expect the IT index to pose


technical pull back from oversold
territory and offer favourable risk-
reward proposition at current juncture

10937 • Technically, TCS, Infosys, L&T


Infotech, Coforge, Happiest Minds,
KPIT Technologies are better placed

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research


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Sectoral Indices – Relative to benchmarks

BSE Capital Goods – Monthly Chart BSE CG vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison Technical Outlook- Capital goods

Capital goods sector extended its

MOMENTUM PICK
Index outperforms after being resilient in earlier •
months relative outperformance as most
stocks made back to their new 52-
week highs
• The sector’s relative ratio with the
index continues to trend up and
indicate extended outperformance in
coming month
• Stocks like L&T, ABB, BEL, Thermax,
SKF, Ingersoll Rand, KSB Pumps are
technically preferred

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


BSE Realty – Quarterly Chart BSE Realty vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison Technical Outlook – Realty & Infra

• The real estate and infra stocks


witnessed technical pull back
alongwith broader indices
• In relative terms, the ratio is turning
Ratio line turning up after few months of up after multi month of decline. We
retracement expect some heavyweight stocks in
sector to relatively perform better
Retesting breakout levels rather than entire sector
• Within the realty and infra space we
like DLF, Brigade, Phoenix Mills,
Ultratech cement with favourable risk
reward

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research


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Sectoral Indices – Relative to benchmarks

BSE Metal – Monthly Chart BSE Metal vs. Sensex– Relative Comparison Technical Outlook - Metal

MOMENTUM PICK
Ratio line continued decline with lower high-low • The metal index held june lows as it
retested its 2021 breakout levels after
sharp decline over 4 months led
prices to oversold trajectory
• In relative terms, the index is
expected to extend underperformance
while a technical bounce cannot be
ruled out from oversold trajectory
• Technically, Hindalco, Tata Steel,
JSW Steel, Jindal stainless are priced
at key support and offer favourable
risk-reward

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


BSE Auto– Monthly Chart BSE Auto Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison Technical Outlook - Auto
Index undergoing higher base
• The Auto Index has given a breakout
above its 2017 highs extending its
outperformance
• In relative terms, the ratio line has
given breakout above multi month
base formation indicating relative
outperformance of auto and ancillary
space in coming months
• Technically Maruti Suzuki, Ashok
Leyland, Gabriel India, MM Forgings,
Minda industries and Balkrishna
Industries are preferred

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research


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Forthcoming Economic Event Calendar

Date Event Date Event


US China

MOMENTUM PICK
27-Jul FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 31-Jul Manufacturing PMI
29-Jul PCE Deflator MoM 31-Jul Non-manufacturing PMI
1-Aug S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 1-Aug Caixin China PMI Mfg
3-Aug S&P Global US Services/composite PMI 3-Aug Caixin China PMI Service/Composite
5-Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 9-Aug New Yuan Loans CNY
5-Aug Change in Private Payrolls 15-Aug Industrial Production YoY
10-Aug CPI MoM 15-Aug Retail Sales YTD YoY
16-Aug Industrial Production MoM 19-Aug FX Net Settlement - Clients CNY
18-Aug Existing Home Sales MoM 18-Aug Swift Global Payments CNY
18-Aug Initial Jobless Claims 27-Aug Industrial Profits YoY
25-Aug GDP Annualized QoQ 31-Aug Manufacturing PMI
26-Aug PCE Deflator MoM 31-Aug Non-manufacturing PMI

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


31-Aug MNI Chicago PMI 31-Aug Composite PMI
India UK
29-Jul Fiscal Deficit INR Crore 29-Jul Mortgage Approvals
1-Aug S&P Global India PMI Mfg 1-Aug S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI
3-Aug S&P Global India PMI Service/Composite 3-Aug S&P Global/CIPS UK Service/Composite PMI
5-Aug RBI Policy 4-Aug Bank of England Bank Rate
12-Aug CPI/Industrial Production YoY 12-Aug Industrial Production MoM
12-Aug Exports YoY 18-Aug CBI Trends Total Orders
12-Aug Imports YoY 19-Aug Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM
16-Aug Wholesale Prices YoY 23-Aug Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
31-Aug GDP/GVA YoY 23-Aug Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI
31-Aug Eight Infrastructure Industries 30-Aug Mortgage Approvals

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research


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Guidelines to RRG Charts......

In this section, we focus on the relative performance of the BSE sectoral indices. The adjacent scatter chart highlights the relative performance of various sectors of the BSE relative to the
Sensex with the y-axis plotting the relative price momentum and the x-axis plotting the relative price. The chart is then subdivided into four quadrants. The details of each quadrants has been

MOMENTUM PICK
explained in the notes at the end of the report.

Out Performer quadrant: Top right is “Leadership” quadrant, which represents a sector that has strengthened in relative price and momentum vis-à-vis the Sensex.

Market Performer quadrant: Bottom right is the “Weakening” quadrant where the relative price of a sector has started to deteriorate and momentum has started to slow.

Neutral quadrant: Bottom left is the “Lagging” quadrant where the relative price of a sector has become negative with momentum suggesting underperformance vis-à-vis the benchmark.

Bargain Buy quadrant: Top left is the “Improving” quadrant where the relative price trend of the sector has started to rise with momentum.

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


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MOMENTUM PICK
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

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ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

research@icicidirect.com

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Disclaimer
We/I, Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Ninad Tamhanekar, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, here by certify that all of the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensations, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
view(s) in this report. We confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve
as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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