TFF - Ld.nov - Dec.22 (China)

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Resolved: The People’s Republic of China ought to

prioritize environmental protection over economic
growth.
THE
FORENSICS THE LD FILE
FILES
The Forensics File 2
The LD File China
Contents
Topic Overview........................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
Definitions .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................13
First Affirmative ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................18
Second Affirmative ................................................................................................................................................................................................................24
First Negative .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................30
Second Negative ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................34
Affirmative Extensions ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................38
China is the top emitter of greenhouse gases and is doubling down on fossil fuel use. ....................................................................................................38
China is facing dire consequences from climate change...................................................................................................................................................39
China is insufficiently committed to reducing emissions. ................................................................................................................................................39
China’s BRI efforts undermine the global fight against climate change. ..........................................................................................................................40
China is facing many environmental challenges due to its carbon intensive industries. ...................................................................................................41
Chinese environmental issues undermine its economy and kills millions of its citizens. ..................................................................................................42
Air pollution is growing worse in China as it reopens after Covid. ..................................................................................................................................42
Chinese leaders cannot resist the temptation to seek ever more economic growth. ..........................................................................................................43
Local leaders in China are pushing for more economic growth, undermining national efforts to protect the environment. ..............................................43
Chinese pollution and internal challenges from pollution threaten the rest of the world...................................................................................................44
Rising sea levels dangerously threaten China’s coast metropolises. .................................................................................................................................44
China cannot embrace easy solutions; it must fully commit to protecting the environment..............................................................................................45
China can easily build public support for fighting climate change. ..................................................................................................................................46
China is in a unique position to lead the global efforts to fight climate change. ...............................................................................................................46
Affirming is actually better for the Chinese economy than is negating. ...........................................................................................................................47
China could grow by greening its cities and transportation systems. ................................................................................................................................47
China can restore nature in its country while decarbonizing its economy. .......................................................................................................................48
The Chinese Communist Party has a devastating record of environmental abuses. ..........................................................................................................48
The Chinese Communist Party hides behind developing nation status to continue to increase their greenhouse gas emissions. ......................................49
The Chinese Communist Party continues to use ozone depleting chemicals. ...................................................................................................................49
The air quality in China is still unhealthy and affects neighboring countries....................................................................................................................49
China is the world’s worst mercury polluter. ...................................................................................................................................................................50
The Chinese Communist Party continues to tolerate massive illegal wildlife trafficking. ................................................................................................50
China is the world’s largest consumer of illegal timber products. ....................................................................................................................................51
China is responsible for millions of tons of plastic waste pollutants annually. .................................................................................................................51
China’s One Belt One Road Initiative is environmentally destructive to multiple countries. ...........................................................................................52
China is the leading polluter of the world’s oceans. .........................................................................................................................................................52
China is the world’s worst perpetrator of illegal and unsustainable fishing. .....................................................................................................................52
China has dammed the Mekong River leading to environmental destruction and famine. ................................................................................................53
As bad as the air is in China, its groundwater is not much better. ....................................................................................................................................54
Negative Extensions ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................55
In the wake of Covid, China is struggling to grow its economy. ......................................................................................................................................55
China is struggling to grow economically in the wake of a backlash to globalization. .....................................................................................................56
If China’s economy collapses it would be devastating the globe. .....................................................................................................................................57
A Chinese economic collapse could crash our stock market. ...........................................................................................................................................57
China’s economy is facing a real estate crisis. .................................................................................................................................................................58
China is beginning to see issues with producer price inflation which could further slow economic growth. ....................................................................58
China is facing its slowest economic growth in decades. .................................................................................................................................................59
China’s economic growth has been steadily declining recently. .......................................................................................................................................59
The US economy is so intertwined with China’s, if their economy collapses, so might ours. ..........................................................................................60
China’s rapidly aging population risks its economy completely coming apart. ................................................................................................................60
China’s draconian reaction to Covid has caused its economy and manufacturing to shrink. ............................................................................................61
China is facing an economic reckoning over its massive debt. .........................................................................................................................................61
China’s debt-ridden property sector is already beyond repair...........................................................................................................................................62
The Chinese economy is fast approaching a death spiral..................................................................................................................................................62
The Chinese economy is facing at least a recession due to real estate defaults. ................................................................................................................63
China’s zero-Covid policy has seriously undermined its economic growth......................................................................................................................63
Rising global interest rates could cause many of China’s economic partners to default on debt, further weakening the Chinese economy. ....................64
China’s continued support of Russia could easily undermine its position globally and thus its economy. .......................................................................64
China is solving its air pollution issues already while planting billions of trees. ..............................................................................................................65
China is already cleaning up its air faster than Western countries did after their industrial revolution. ............................................................................66
China is already working to protect the environment. ......................................................................................................................................................67
China is already working to fight climate change and reduce air, water, and soil pollution and restoring ecosystems. ....................................................68
In the past China lacked the tools to protect its environment but now it has them so it is tackling affirmative harms. .....................................................68
China is already embracing nature-based solutions to all the affirmative harms. .............................................................................................................69
China is leading the world in developing methods for protecting the environment. .........................................................................................................70
China must balance human development and the environment. .......................................................................................................................................71
Negating allows for both economic development and environmental protection..............................................................................................................72
China is using its BRI to emphasize environmental protection abroad. ............................................................................................................................73
China is working to stop overfishing................................................................................................................................................................................74
China is working to protect the oceans and the Arctic......................................................................................................................................................75
Blocks ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................76
Rebuttal Overviews ................................................................................................................................................................................................................88
Preflows .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................92
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The LD File China
Topic Overview
In some very crucial ways this topic is quite unique, mostly with its agent of action, China.
Most often the agent of action, the entity charged with acting in the resolution, is the United States.
Sometimes it is a generic ‘just society’ and other times it is something called a ‘democracy’ or
‘states.’ Rarely is it an individual person or human. Recently it was the World Trade
Organization. A cursory and quick scroll through the past topics section on the NSDA website did
not reveal any country specific topics where the specific country was not the United States. All
three of the potential topics for November/December 2022 have a country other than the United
States as their agent of action. It is interesting to consider the implications of this. It means
students will have to familiarize themselves with the functioning of another government, its
history, its issues, especially those relevant to the topic, some current events, and probably more.
This might be quite the challenge for novice or junior varsity students who are still learning about
the functioning, history, issues, current events, and more of their own country. Still, as the US
can often be myopic in its perspective on the news, learning to see further into the world is probably
a good thing.
Other implications potentially include deciding for another country how it must act (which
was once criticized as cultural imperialism) and what debating about what a foreign actor ought
do does to any performativity in rounds. To clarify, when the topic is about the United States and
the judge is an American or resides within America, and as America is something called a
democracy, with much more acceptance of protests, it makes some sense to imagine the judge’s
ballot makes some kind of difference in some way even if that difference might be difficult to see.
What does it mean if an American student, or student in America, engages in some kind of
environmental protest in round? Is the judge supposed to represent the Chinese government? If
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The LD File China
not, does signing the ballot either way represent anything at all? If so, does signing the ballot
either way represents some kind of Chinese government endorsement or rejection of the protest?
Is the judge supposed to bring their own personal, political bias to the round, their American
perspective, or are they supposed to pretend they are the Chinese government? China does not
really have a history of friendly acceptance of student protestors. Would pleas from Chinese
ethnic students have more power in rounds on this topic? When the topic is about the China and
the judge is an American or resides within America, it is very difficult to conceive of how a debate
ballot from a preliminary round in Peoria will really have any conceivable impact upon China. It
is imagined that we will find out in at least some rounds.
So let’s get to the topic. In 1978, China opened up its markets. “Prior to the reforms, the
Chinese economy was dominated by state ownership and central planning. From 1950 to 1973,
Chinese real GDP per capita grew at a rate of 2.9% per year on average, albeit with major
fluctuations stemming from the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.[9] This placed it
near the middle of the Asian nations during the same period,[10] with neighboring capitalist
countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and then rival Chiang Kai-shek's Republic of
China (ROC) outstripping mainland China's rate of growth.[11] Starting in 1970, the economy
entered into a period of stagnation,[12] and after the death of Mao Zedong, the Communist Party
leadership decided to turn to market-oriented reforms to salvage the stagnant economy.”1 “Since
China began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, GDP growth has averaged almost 10
percent a year, and more than 800 million people have been lifted out of poverty.”2 For perspective,
1
Wikipedia contributors, "Chinese economic reform," Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia,
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Chinese_economic_reform&oldid=1098999675 (accessed August 3,
2022).
2
The World Bank, “The World Bank In China,” April 12, 2022,
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview
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the US economy “shrank by 0.9% in the second quarter, surprising economists who had forecast
it to grow by 0.3%, according to Commerce Department data. The downtick came on the heels of
a first-quarter report in which the US economy posted a surprise decline of 1.6%.”3 From 1948 to
2022, average GDP growth in the US was just 3.13%.4 So 10% is extraordinary. (By the way,
GDP is “the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within
a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production,
it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.”5) To summarize,
prior to 1978 when China began to embrace market reforms and open up its economy, China’s
economy was stagnant and mid-level, since embracing market reforms, China’s economy has
generally grown to where China is now one of the most powerful and influential countries on the
globe.
The Government of the People's Republic of China is complex but suffice it to say for our
purposes, “The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is the founding and ruling political party of
modern China, officially known as the People’s Republic of China. The CCP has maintained a
political monopoly since its founding a century ago, overseeing the country’s rapid economic
growth and rise as a global power. As the party marks its one hundredth anniversary in 2021, it
faces challenges abroad and at home, including economic inequality, the COVID-19 pandemic,
and the climate crisis. Since President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, he has consolidated his
control over the infamously opaque party, with many experts calling him the most influential
Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. In 2017, the CCP reaffirmed Xi’s dominance and elevated new
3
Thomas Barrabi, “US GDP shrank 0.9% in second quarter, signaling a recession,” New York Post, July 28, 2022,
https://nypost.com/2022/07/28/us-gdp-sinks-0-9-in-second-quarter-signaling-potential-recession/
4
Trading Economics, “United States GDP Annual Growth Rate,” https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-
growth-annual#:~:text=GDP%20Annual%20Growth%20Rate%20in,the%20second%20quarter%20of%202020.
5
Jason Fernando, “Gross Domestic Product, Investopedia, July 29, 2022,
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp
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officials to support him in setting the agenda for the second-largest economy in the world.
Championing a vision for China’s “rejuvenation,” Xi has pursued a more assertive foreign policy
strategy, which has increased tensions between China and the United States and its allies.” 6 So
China is a one-party communist dictatorship where Xi Jinping has far more authority over China
than anyone in the US government has over the US. This does not mean the government does not
respond to internal or external pressure, but it will respond in its time and how it likes. The chart
below may help students understand the structure of the Chinese government.7
6
Eleanor Albert, Lindsay Maizland, and Beina Xu, “The Chinese Communist Party,” Council on Foreign Relations,
June 23, 2021, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinese-communist-party
7
The US China Business Council, “Chinese Government, https://www.uschina.org/resources/chinese-government
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The next image illustrates the diversity of the geography of China.8
The two rivers on the map are crucial to Chinese economic development. For example,
“the Yangtze River is by far the world's busiest inland waterway for freight transport. In 2011, the
river carried 40 percent of the nation's inland waterborne freight. The nine provincial capitals along
the Yangtze and its major tributaries had a combined GDP of 1 trillion dollars, by 2011. That gives
these cities a total wealth comparable to the GDP of Mexico. Industrialization of the Yangtze River
corridor isn't just an economic process. It's a political one, as well. It is part of the Chinese
government's broader struggle to develop and better integrate China's inland provinces with coastal
economic hubs like Shanghai and Shenzhen. As the competitiveness of low-cost, export-oriented
manufacturing along the coast wanes, Beijing will look to the cities of the Yangtze River corridor
to drive urban and industrial development in China's vast interior. One of the most important cities
in this process is Wuhan. Located equidistant between Chongqing and Shanghai, and straddling
8
Owl & Mouse, “China - History and Geography,” http://www.yourchildlearns.com/china_history_geography.htm
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The LD File China
the Beijing-Guangzhou Railway, Wuhan is inland China's most important transportation
crossroads. Recognizing Wuhan's strategic significance for future inland development, the Chinese
central government plans to invest nearly 30 billion dollars to expand and redevelop the city’s
ports over the next five years. The rising importance of transport hubs like Wuhan reflects the
changing geopolitics of the Yangtze River.”9 But 10% GDP growth in China, and all this
development along the Yangtze River, as well as the harvesting of other resources in China, has
taken a toll on the environment of China.
“China’s environmental problems, including outdoor and indoor air pollution, water
shortages and pollution, desertification, and soil pollution, have become more pronounced and are
subjecting Chinese residents to significant health risks. In Chinese cities, outdoor air pollution is
the biggest environmental challenge for public health. The source of air pollution in Chinese cities
has gradually changed from conventional coal combustion to a mixture of coal-combustion and
motor-vehicle emissions… In rural areas of China, coal and biomass fuels are still widely used in
stoves and produce substantial indoor air pollution. The evidence for adverse health effects of solid
fuels is strong, including lung cancer, acute respiratory infection, and chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease… The WHO estimated that solid fuels used in Chinese households cause
approximately 420,000 premature deaths annually. Water pollution is another cause for serious
health concern in China, especially in rural areas. From 2000 to 2008, the quality of surface water
worsened in northern China… Other important environmental health problems in China include
climate change, disposal and treatment of electronic waste, and heavy metal pollution in the soil.”10
So China is facing many environmental issues. Of course, these issues impact China’s neighbors
9
Worldview, “The Strategic Importance of the Yangtze River,” March 29, 2013,
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/strategic-importance-yangtze-river
10
Kan H. Environment and health in China: challenges and opportunities. Environ Health Perspect. 2009
Dec;117(12):A530-1. doi: 10.1289/ehp.0901615. PMID: 20049177; PMCID: PMC2799473.
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The LD File China
and China is said to be contributing dramatically to climate change. China has no shortage of
neighbors:11
Pollution in China can and does have impact upon billions of people.
China is also having economic issues. “On Friday, China’s government announced that
its economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2021, marking the
economy’s worst quarterly performance since the beginning of the pandemic. The main drag on
the China’s economy was the COVID lockdown in Shanghai, which halted nearly all economic
activity in China’s wealthiest city for nearly two months from April to May. In June, China’s
economy showed some signs of bouncing back, with industrial output and retail sales up 3.9% and
3.1% respectively compared to the same month one year before. But recovery was not fast enough
to make up for the toll of the COVID shutdowns. “The economy is on the mend, but it remains
11
https://www.chinasage.info/provinces/neighbor-countries.htm
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The LD File China
very weak,” says Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, in a note sent to Fortune. “The
loss from lockdowns is huge.” Bruce Pang, chief economist of greater China at JLL, says that
China’s economy appears to be “bottoming” and that it “may not be out of the woods yet.” China’s
economy may experienced a W-shaped recovery given “persistent job market pressure, still-
sluggish domestic consumption, and external uncertainties,” he says. China’s government
acknowledges how difficult it will be to emerge from its economic slump.” 12 The preceding was
broad in scope, and we included in this file multiple, more specific cards about the struggles of the
Chinese economy. Many are predicting economic collapse in China, others, continued stagnation,
and still others, recovery. The question might be, can the Chinese afford to shift focus away from
its economy as it works to overcome debt and Covid.
So this brings us to the conflict in the resolution. It may not be evidently clear for
economically, “As a country prospers, its citizens are better able to care for the environment and
reduce pollutants emitted from industrial growth. In fact, The Heritage Foundation’s Index of
Economic Freedom and Yale University’s Environmental Performance Index show a strong
correlation between a country’s environmental performance and economic freedom (i.e., its
embrace of capitalism).”13 In other words, as a countries economy grows, it tends to care more
about the environment probably because if people are barely subsisting the have little time or
energy to care, and when people have more wealth and thus leisure time to enjoy nature, they want
that nature to be clean and unpolluted. So environmental protection and economic growth can go
hand in hand. Additionally, one could, and one may often hear, that protecting the environment
12
Grady McGregor, “As China’s economy struggles to bounce back from COVID lockdowns, Beijing warns that
global stagflation could depress a full recovery,” Fortune, July 15, 2022, https://fortune.com/2022/07/15/china-
q2-2022-gdp-economy-growth-stagflation-stimulus-covid-lockdowns/
13
Nicolas Loris, “Breathe Free: Capitalism Helps Protect the Environment,” The Heritage Foundation, October 23,
2019, https://www.heritage.org/environment/commentary/breathe-free-capitalism-helps-protect-the-
environment
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could lead to an economic boom in green jobs in renewable energy industries, clean tech, etc. So
again they go hand in hand.
This also leads to the question of if we grow the economy so we can protect the
environment, is the environment the ultimate priority? If we protect the environment with the
ultimate goal of growing the economy, is the economy the real priority? Of course, some may
just see economic growth as inherently bad for the environment which could be argued. Such an
argument may or may not be persuasive to judges. Of course there are responses to this, “Truth
be told, capitalism has helped cleanse our planet — improving living standards while protecting
the environment. Rather than eliminate capitalism, policymakers need to unleash it. Markets
incentivize efficiency by rewarding people for coming up with ways to do more or do better with
less. People choose — and businesses make — more efficient products because it saves them
money while delivering what customers want. Over the past decade, market forces have driven a
massive transition within the energy industry. In 2008, coal provided roughly half of the country’s
electricity generation. Now, coal’s share is about a quarter. Increased production of natural gas has
driven energy bills and emissions downward.”14 In our file we treat the conflict as one of
competing focus between two different pending crises facing China. Thus if China must pick one
to focus upon, then it should work to fix the worst of the two. It would be up to debaters to
determine how judges are to identify which one is ‘worst.’
This is an interesting topic for many reasons. Debaters will get to learn a great deal about
one of the most important countries in the world, one that is in the news daily. Debaters will get
to learn in detail the issues facing China and likely the world as China holds much sway. Debaters
will have to find the conflict in the resolution and help judges resolve that conflict through their
14
IBID
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The LD File China
cases. It may be tough to find unbiased information on China as some information comes from
the Chinese propaganda media and some comes be from writers all over the world. Some of these
writers may have their own agenda on the topic. It will be interesting to see how in round activism
is treated if that happens on your circuit. We sincerely hope this file is helpful to you as you
prepare to debate the topic and we thank you for purchasing our file. Best of luck from The
Forensics Files!!
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The LD File China
Definitions
Resolved: The People’s Republic of China ought to prioritize environmental protection over
economic growth.
Ought 1 Used to indicate duty or correctness, typically when criticizing someone’s

actions:
2 Used to indicate a desirable or expected state:
3 Used to give or ask advice:
4 Used to indicate something that is probable:
Source: Oxford Dictionaries
Ought 1. Used to indicate obligation or duty: You ought to work harder than that.
2. Used to indicate advisability or prudence: You ought to wear a raincoat.
3. Used to indicate desirability: You ought to have been there; it was great
fun.
4. Used to indicate probability or likelihood: She ought to finish by next
week.
Source: American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language
Ought 1 to indicate duty or obligation ⇒ "you ought to pay your dues"

2 to express prudent expediency ⇒ "you ought to be more careful with
your money"
3 (usually with reference to future time) to express probability or
expectation ⇒ "you ought to finish this work by Friday"
4 to express a desire or wish on the part of the speaker ⇒ "you ought to
come next week"
Source: Source: Collins English Dictionary
Ought 1 used for saying what is the right or sensible thing to do, or the right way
to behave
2 used when you have strong reasons for believing or expecting something
Source: Macmillan Dictionary
Prioritize To arrange or deal with in order of importance.

Source: The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition
Copyright
Prioritize to list or rate (as projects or goals) in order of priority

Source: Merriam-Webster's Online Dictionary, 10th Edition
Prioritize to decide which of a group of things are the most important so that you can
deal with them first
Source: Cambridge International Dictionary of English
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Prioritize 1. rank things according to importance: to order things according to their
importance or urgency
2. rank something as most important: to regard something as most important
or urgent
Source: Encarta® World English Dictionary, North American Edition
Environmental 1 Of, relating to, or associated with the environment

2 Relating to or being concerned with the ecological impact of altering the
environment.
Source: The American Heritage Dictionary.
Environmental 1 the circumstances, objects, or conditions by which one is surrounded

2 the complex of physical, chemical, and biotic factors (as climate, soil, and
living things) that act upon an organism or an ecological community and
ultimately determine its form and survival
3 the aggregate of social and cultural conditions that influence the life of an
individual or community
Source: Merriam Webster’s Online Dictionary
Environmental relating to the environment

Source: Cambridge Dictionary of American English
Environmental 1 the aggregate of surrounding things, conditions, or influences;

surroundings; milieu
2 the air, water, minerals, organisms, and all other external factors
surrounding and affecting a given organism at any time.
Source: Random House Dictionary
Protection 1: the act of protecting : the state of being protected

2a: one that protects
b: supervision or support of one that is smaller and weaker
c: a contraceptive device (such as a condom)
3: the freeing of the producers of a country from foreign competition in their
home market by restrictions (such as high duties) on foreign competitive
goods
4a: immunity from prosecution purchased by criminals through bribery
b: money extorted by racketeers posing as a protective association
5: COVERAGE sense 1a
6: anchoring equipment placed in cracks for safety while rock climbing
Source: Merriam-Webster.com
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Protection 1. The action of protecting, or the state of being protected.
1.1 A person or thing that prevents someone or something from suffering
harm or injury.
1.2 (usually protections A legal or other formal measure intended to
preserve civil liberties and rights.
1.3 A document guaranteeing immunity from harm to the person specified
in it.
1.4 Measures taken to prevent conception or sexually transmitted infection
during sexual activity, especially the use of a condom.
1.5 archaic Used euphemistically to refer to the keeping of a mistress by her
lover in a separate establishment.
Protection 1. the activity of protecting someone or something

2. the condition of being protected
3. a covering that is intend to protect from damage or injury
4. defense against financial failure; financial independence
5. kindly endorsement and guidance
6. the imposition of duties or quotas on imports in order to protect domestic
industry against foreign competition
7. payment extorted by gangsters on threat of violence
Source: Vocabulary.com
Protection 1 The process of keeping (something or someone) safe.

Raincoats give protection from rain.
2 The state of being safe.
3 A means of keeping or remaining safe.
4 A means, such as a condom, of preventing pregnancy or sexually
transmitted disease.
5 (insurance) Coverage.
6 Immunity from harm, obtained by illegal payments, as bribery or
extortion.
7 (obsolete) A document serving as a guarantee against harm or
interference; a passport.
8 (economics) Restrictions on foreign competitors which limit their ability
to compete with domestic producers of goods or services.
9 (computing) An instance of a security token associated with a resource
(such as a file).
Source: Wiktionary contributors, "protection," Wiktionary, The Free Dictionary,
https://en.wiktionary.org/w/index.php?title=protection&oldid=63338939 (accessed August 4,
2021).
Economic 1 relating to economics or the economy

2 justified in terms of profitability
Source: Compact Oxford English Dictionary
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Economic 1 Of or relating to the production, development, and management of
material wealth, as of a country, household, or business enterprise
2 Of or relating to an economy
3 Of or relating to the science of economic
4 Of or relating to the practical necessities of life; material
5 Financially rewarding; economical
6 Efficient; economical
Source: The American Heritage Dictionary
Economic 1 of or having to do with the management of the income, expenditures,

etc. of a household, business, community, or government
2 of or having to do with the production, distribution, and consumption of
wealth
3 of or having to do with economics
4 of or having to do with the satisfaction of people's material needs
Source: Merriam Webster’s Online Dictionary
Economic the system of trade and industry by which the wealth of a country or
region is made and used
Source: Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary
Growth 1a(1): a stage in the process of growing : SIZE

(2): full growth
b: the process of growing
c: progressive development : EVOLUTION
d: INCREASE, EXPANSION
the growth of the oil industry
2a: something that grows or has grown
a growth of willows
b: an abnormal proliferation of tissue (such as a tumor)
c: OUTGROWTH
d: the result of growth : PRODUCT
Protestantism was a relatively recent growth.
3: a producing especially by growing
fruits of his own growth
4: anticipated progressive growth especially in capital value and income
some investors prefer growth to immediate income
Source: Merriam-Webster.com
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Growth 1.
a. The process of growing.
b. Full development; maturity.
2. Development from a lower or simpler to a higher or more complex
form; evolution.
3. An increase, as in size, number, value, or strength; extension or
expansion: population growth.
4. Something that grows or has grown: a new growth of grass.
5. An abnormal mass of tissue, such as a tumor, growing in or on a living
organism.
6. A result of growth; a product: concerns that are a growth of the new
responsibilities
Source: American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language
Growth 1 The process of increasing in physical size.

‘the upward growth of plants’
1.1 The process of developing or maturing physically, mentally, or spiritually.
‘keeping a journal can be a vital step in our personal growth’
1.2 The process of increasing in amount, value, or importance.
‘the rates of population growth are lowest in the north’
1.3 The increase in number and spread of small or microscopic organisms.
‘some additives slow down the growth of microorganisms’
1.4 Increase in economic value or activity.
‘the government aims to get growth back into the economy’
2 Something that has grown or is growing.
‘a day's growth of unshaven stubble on his chin’
2.1 Medicine Biology A tumor or other abnormal formation.
‘the method enables doctors to distinguish between malignant and benign
growths’
3 A vineyard or crop of grapes of a specified classification of quality, or a wine
from it.
‘all growths within the legally delimited Champagne zone are classified’
Growth 1 the act or process, or a manner of growing; development; gradual increase.

2 size or stage of development:
It hasn't yet reached its full growth.
3 completed development.
4 development from a simpler to a more complex stage:
the growth of ritual forms.
5 development from another but related form or stage:
the growth of the nation state.
Source: Random House Unabridged Dictionary
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Affirmative Cases
First Affirmative
I affirm the resolution, “Resolved: The People’s Republic of China ought to prioritize
environmental protection over economic growth.” The value for the round is morality because the
language of the resolution frames the question as one of morality through of the use of the word
‘ought’ in the resolution and Merriam Webster defines ought to mean moral obligation. This is
the contextually correct meaning of ought to use because 1) we are debating values and morality
is a value 2) moral debate is inherently a debate over competing conceptions of the good or values
3) the other concepts in the resolution such as public health and criminal justice are all best
illuminated through a moral philosophy. Additionally, morality is an intrinsic value that informs
all other values and so is indispensable to any normative framing. Thus, morality allows a more
objective approach as it could lead to either an affirmative or negative ballot depending on the
winning moral philosophy. Hence, morality is the proper value, and any other value must be
rejected which would mean dismissing a case that does not conclude to the value of morality. So,
we need a criterion to distinguish between moral and immoral action.
The principle of utility is the foundation and standard of morality.
The founder of utilitarianism, Jeremy Bentham, “An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation,” Oxford Clarendon
Press, 1789, explains how,
Nature has placed mankind under the governance of two sovereign
masters, pain and pleasure. It is for them alone to point out what we ought to do, as well
as to determine what we shall do. On the one hand the standard of right and wrong, on the other the chain of causes and effects, are fastened to
their throne. They govern us in all we do, in all we say, in all we think: every effort we can make to throw off our subjection, will serve but to demonstrate
and confirm it. In words a man may pretend to abjure their empire: but in reality he will remain subject
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to it all the while. The principle of utility recognizes this *6
subjection, and assumes it for the foundation of that system, the object of
which is to rear the fabric of felicity by the hands of reason and of law. Systems which attempt to question it, deal in sounds instead of sense, in caprice instead of reason, in darkness
instead of light. But enough of metaphor and declamation: it is not by such means that moral science is to be improved. The principle of utility is the foundation of the present work:
it will be proper therefore at the outset to give an explicit and determinate account of what is meant by it. By the principle of utility is meant
*7
that principle which approves or disapproves of every action whatsoever, according to the
tendency it appears to have to augment or diminish the happiness of the party whose
interest is in question: or, what is the same thing in other words, to promote or to oppose that happiness. I say of every action
whatsoever, and therefore not only of every action of a private individual, but of every measure of government.
By utility is meant that property in any object, whereby it tends to produce benefit, advantage, pleasure, good, or happiness, (all this in the present case comes to the same thing) or
(what comes again to the same thing) to prevent the happening of mischief, pain, evil, or unhappiness to the party whose interest is considered: if that party be the community in
general, then the happiness of the community: if a particular individual, then the happiness of that individual. The interest of the community is one of the most general expressions
that can occur in the phraseology of morals: no wonder that the meaning of it is often lost. When it has a meaning, it is this. The community is a fictitious body, composed of the
individual persons who are considered as constituting as it were its members. The interest of the community then is, what?—the sum of the interests of the several members who
compose it.
We see from this that utility is the inherent standard for moral action provided by nature through
our natural pain/pleasure mechanisms. We also see that this standard for morality is unavoidable
because people can only pretend to be guided by alternative motivations. Thus, the criterion for
the round must be adhering to Bentham’s principle of utility meaning if I prove China prioritizing
environmental protection over economic growth achieves the greatest good for the greatest number
than it is moral, and we must affirm.
I contend China prioritizing environmental protection over economic growth achieves the greatest
good for the greatest number.
1. Environmental issues is becoming the biggest threat to its political stability.
Maizland ’21, Lindsay Maizland (writes about Asia for CFR.org. Before joining CFR, she covered breaking news for TEGNA’s
central digital team and reported on world news for Vox. She holds a BA in international relations and journalism from American
University), “China’s Fight Against Climate Change and Environmental Degradation,” Council on Foreign Relations, May 19, 2021,
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-climate-change-policies-environmental-degradation
CFR’s Huang argues in his book Toxic Politics: China’s Environmental Health Crisis and Its Challenge to the Chinese State that
pollution and environmental degradation are among the “biggest obstacles to China’s
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future economic growth and political stability.” The government’s failure to meaningfully
address pollution could lead citizens to question the legitimacy of China’s leaders and
political system, he writes. Indeed, as public awareness of environmental degradation has
increased over the past two decades, public dissatisfaction and the number of petitions and
protests have grown. Citizens have organized hundreds of protests, including in the cities of
Guangdong, Kunming, Shanghai, and Wuhan. In 2013, the number of “abrupt environmental incidents,”
including protests, rose to 712, a 31 percent jump from the previous year. Citizen petitions
related to environmental issues increased from 1.05 million in 2011 to 1.77 million in 2015.
Environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have pushed the government to confront problems. Thousands of
these groups—domestically based but often working with foreign counterparts—have advocated for transparency,
investigated suspected corruption, and led grassroots campaigns. They have had some
success, taking advantage of a 2015 law that made it easier to file cases against polluters.
But the Chinese Communist Party fears activism could catalyze democratic social change,
and so has constrained the efforts of organizations, activists, and grassroots movements.
For example, a 2016 law made it harder for international NGOs to work in China. Under
Xi, the government has shown more resolve to crack down on public dissent, including by
arresting activists and censoring documentaries and social media commentary. The
government’s inability to curb pollution could damage China’s international standing, experts
say. “China cannot regain its greatness in the world if its people continue to breathe polluted
air, drink toxic water, and eat tainted food,” writes Huang.
This means that China must prioritize protecting the environment over economic growth to ensure
political stability in China. China is a world nuclear superpower, and the collapse of her
government places the Chinese people, and the world in danger and so we must affirm.
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2. China’s lack of environmental protection is undermining its health and future
economic well-being.
Huang ’21, Yanzhong Huang (a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations and a professor at Seton Hall
University’s School of Diplomacy and International Relations, is the author of Toxic Politics: China’s Environmental Health Crisis and
its Challenge to the Chinese State), “The Environmental Challenges of China's Recovery After COVID-19,” Time, February 2, 2021,
https://time.com/5935138/chinas-environment-economic-recovery/
Inability to rein in pollution threatened to wear away the existing public health gains of pollution control. Air pollution alone
caused more than 49,000 deaths in Beijing and Shanghai in the first half of the year, a
figure that is ten time more than the official national coronavirus death toll (4,634). Since a primary
cause of air pollution is the burning of fossil fuels, also considered a major contributor to climate change, massive stimulus measures
from the government also cast doubts on China’s ability to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Dirty economic recovery
has profound implications for China’s future economic health as well. According to a
report released by Greenpeace and CREA, in 2018, dirty air cost 6.6 percent of China’s
GDP, compared to 5.4 percent for India and 3 percent for the United States. Pollution also
reduces grain yield by severely impeding photosynthesis. A Chinese agriculture expert
suggested that if smog persists at high levels, China’s agriculture sector would suffer
conditions “somewhat similar to a nuclear winter.” As food security concerns mount in the
country, China faces growing pressure to import more grain from world market. Pollution is
also threatening China’s political stability. According to a Harvard survey conducted in 2016, one-third of respondents in China said
they would petition or protest against air pollution had it negatively affected their own health or the health of their family members.
This means China must protect the environment over economic growth because failing to do so
means China will not even grow economically meaning it is impossible for the negative to achieve
the greatest good and so we must affirm.
3. China’s air pollution kills millions annually and it is only getting worse.
Igini ’22, Martina Igini (an Italian graduate student in International Development. She holds two Bachelor's degrees, one in
Journalism and one in Translation and Interpreting Studies. Her interests include sustainability and the role of public policy in
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environmental protection, especially in developing countries. She has extensive experience working as a journalist and in 2020, she
interned at the Global Communication Department of the United Nations Office in Vienna. She currently lives and works in Hong Kong
as Assistant Editor at Earth.Org), “5 Worrisome Environmental Issues in China in 2022,” Earth.org, June 23, 2022,
https://earth.org/environmental-issues-in-china/
First on the list of environmental issues in China is air pollution. The country’s poor air quality is not exactly
news. Since the beginning of its industrial expansion and economic boom in the late 1970s – which lifted 800
million people out of poverty and saw the country’s GDP grow at an average annual rate of 10% for four decades – the quality of air
has progressively deteriorated. According to the 2021 World Air Quality Report, out of 1,374 cities located in East Asia, 143 (or about
11%) recorded annual average PM2.5 concentrations that are seven times greater than World Health Organization (WHO) standards.
All of them were located in China, with the town of Hotan in southwestern Xinjiang experiencing the highest level of pollution in the
country at about 101 µg/m³, over 20 times the WHO guideline value. Estimated to cause an average of 1.2 million
premature deaths every year, China’s poor air quality is primarily attributed to the rapid
economic expansion the country experienced since 1979, which resulted in a drastic
increase in coal-powered industrial production and electricity demand, as well as an
exponential rise in private vehicles. It is estimated that roughly 48% of Chinese CO2
emissions come from the industrial sector, with 40% from the power – mainly coal – and
8% from the transport industry. With an ever-increasing population, the demand for
electricity has grown with no respite, leading to even more coal-burning and worsened air
standards. Furthermore, despite pledging to reach net zero emissions before 2060, the
country remains by far the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal, which alone
covers 60% of its electricity demand. In an effort to restore the economy to pre-pandemic
levels and curb the energy crisis sparked by the exponential rise in industrial activities the
country experienced in 2021, the Chinese government ordered factories to increase their
production capacity and built more than triple the amount of new coal power capacity as
the rest of the world combined. Unsurprisingly, CO2 emissions in the same year almost
reached 12 billion tonnes, accounting for 33% of the global total.
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This means prioritizing economic growth over the environment would continue policies which
pollute the air in China that kills millions annually. This cannot be the greatest good for the
greatest number so China must prioritize the environment and so we must affirm.
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Second Affirmative
I affirm the resolution, “Resolved: The People’s Republic of China ought to prioritize
Cost benefit analysis is a useful and neutral tool useful pluralistically useful for
answering ethical questions.
Audi ‘05, Robert Audi (an American philosopher whose major work has focused on epistemology, ethics, and the theory of action.
He is O'Brien Professor of Philosophy at the University of Notre Dame), “The Ethical Significance of Cost-Benefit Analysis in Business
and The Professions,” Business & Professional Ethics Journal , Fall 2005, https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/27801385.pdf
We are now in a position to summarize the main point I want to stress: cost benefit analysis, despite its historical association
with utilitarianism and with maximization of profits, is utterly neutral as to the objects of value. Quite
consistently with the approach, we can assign a value to act-types as such independently
of their consequences for happiness, for instance a negative value to the sheer breaking of
a promise. Thus, not only utilitarians, but also deontologists like Kant, virtue ethicists, and
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ethical pluralists in the tradition of Ross can use the approach. In a way, what we do is
assign quantities to qualities. This is not to make light of measurement problems or of the difficulty of reasonably
assigning probabilities. But those seem to be difficulties for any theory; they are simply more prominent in a cost-benefit framework.
One may still protest that there are qualitative dimensions of morality that are simply not reflected in this framework. Granted. But it
should be possible for rational persons to (a) identify what matters, (b) indicate roughly
how much it matters, and (c) weight its mattering in relation to how probable it is given
certain options. To be sure, there may be absolute prohibitions, such as not to send a nuclear bomb over an innocent city. If one
thinks this is absolutely wrong, one can simply assign it absolute negative value, and the cost-benefit framework will reflect a veto.
(This is so unless it runs into competing infinites? But for a clash of gods no one has a simple, general solution.) There are sound ethical
principles, but their application to many, though not all, concrete cases in which moral decisions are required is not a simple matter.
Applying moral principles requires clear-headed reflection on the relevant facts of the case
and on how the facts are to be weighted, individually and collectively. This sometimes requires
balancing conflicting ethical principles or conflicting moral obligations. Despite these complexities, there are sometimes clearly correct
answers; and even when there are not, some answers among those competing for acceptance are better justified than others and a better
precedent for the future. Cost-benefit analysis is not the only way to represent and manage these conflicts and complexities, but it must
not be dismissed out of hand as a mere tool of utilitarianism or as crass quantification of the qualitative.14
So the best criterion for the round is cost benefit analysis because it recognizes the reality of having
to rank and opt between choices. Additionally, it is a useful tool for multiple ethical approaches
as it allows use to decide between competing choices which will always have costs and benefits.
Thus if I prove that the benefits of affirming outweigh any harms we must affirm.
I contend the benefits of affirming outweigh any harms.
1. Chinese rapid and erratic economic growth has left it vulnerable to the effects of
climate change.
Myers, Bradsher, and Buckley ’21, Steven Lee Myers (a veteran foreign and national security correspondent for The
New York Times, currently based in California covering misinformation at home and abroad. From China, he contributed to the articles
on the coronavirus pandemic that won the Pulitzer Prize for public service in 2021), Keith Bradsher (the Pulitzer Prize-winning Beijing
bureau chief for The New York Times. He previously served as the Shanghai bureau chief, Hong Kong bureau chief and Detroit bureau
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chief), & Chris Buckley (chief China correspondent and lived in China for most of the past 30 years after growing up in Sydney,
Australia. Before joining The Times in 2012, he was a correspondent in Beijing for Reuters), “As China Boomed, It Didn’t Take Climate
Change Into Account. Now It Must,” The New York Times, July 26, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/world/asia/china-
climate-change.html
China’s breakneck growth over the last four decades erected soaring cities where there had
been hamlets and farmland. The cities lured factories, and the factories lured workers. The
boom lifted hundreds of millions of people out of the poverty and rural hardship they once faced. Now those cities face the
daunting new challenge of adapting to extreme weather caused by climate change, a
possibility that few gave much thought to when the country began its extraordinary
economic transformation. China’s pell-mell, brisk urbanization has in some ways made the
challenge harder to face. No one weather event can be immediately linked to climate
change, but the storm that flooded Zhengzhou and other cities in central China last week,
killing at least 69 as of Monday, reflects a global trend of extreme weather that has seen deadly
flooding recently in Germany and Belgium, and severe heat and wildfires in Siberia. The
flooding in China, which engulfed subway lines, washed away roads and cut off villages,
also highlights the environmental vulnerabilities that accompanied the country’s economic
boom and could yet undermine it. China has always had floods, but as Kong Feng, then a
public policy professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, wrote in 2019, the flooding of cities
across China in recent years is “a general manifestation of urban problems” in the country.
The vast expansion of roads, subways and railways in cities that swelled almost overnight meant
there were fewer places where rain could safely be absorbed — disrupting what scientists call the natural
hydrological cycle.
This means as China’s economy grows, it increases the nation’s vulnerability to climate change
and other nature related events. With over one billion people in the country this places multiple
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millions of lives at stake. Thus, protecting the environment has the benefit of protecting millions
of lives and so we must affirm.
2. 65% of China’s GDP is at risk due to nature loss.
Chunquan & Neo ’22, Zhu Chunquan (Head of China Nature Initiatives, World Economic Forum) & Gim Huay Neo
(Managing Board, Head of Centre for Nature and Climate, World Economic Forum), “This is why China needs to become nature positive
- and how to do it,” World Economic Forum, January 17, 2022, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/15-key-action-points-to-
make-china-nature-positive/
China’s economy has experienced unprecedented growth in the last 40 years. Average income per capita has increased from $120 in
1978 to $9000 in 2019 and urbanization rates have gone up from 18% in 1978 to 63.9% today. However, as home to nearly
10% of all plant species and 14% of animals on earth, China’s natural ecosystem has paid
a price for this exponential economic growth. The country’s mangrove area declined by
40% since the 1950s and more than 20% of vertebrate animal species in China are at high
risks of extinction. A healthy natural ecosystem is not an environmental imperative alone,
it also has significant economic and community implications. The World Economic
Forum’s “Seizing Business Opportunities in China’s Transition Towards a Nature-positive Economy” report has found
that 65% of the country’s total GDP, or the equivalent to 9 trillion USD, is at risk of
disruption from nature loss. Intertwined forces of urbanization, increased purchasing
power and changes in consumer behaviour put enormous strain on China’s natural capital,
pushing critical ecosystems to the cusp of irreversible tipping points. This ultimately
becomes a threat to the very foundation of China’s economic growth and societal
wellbeing.
This means the harms of negating could bring a massive economic crash preventing the negative
from achieving any benefits and so we must affirm.
3. China is at risk of reaching ‘peak water’ by 2030.
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Besides pollution, water availability in China is also among the most worrisome environmental
issues in China. It is exacerbated by the climate crisis, the effects of which considerably
diminish the country’s accessible water resources, triggering severe shortages. Despite being
home to almost 20% of the global population, China has only 6% of the world’s total freshwater resources.
In 2018, the total internal renewable water resources were estimated at 1,927 cubic metres
per capita – nearly 75% less than the global average. To make matters worse, water is
unevenly distributed across the country, with 80% concentrated in South China, despite the
North being the core of national development. In the three heavily industrialised Northern
provinces of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei – home to 130 million people – water available
for human consumption is less than 184 cubic metres per person, well below the 500 cubic
metre standard of water scarcity. Scientific consensus says that climate change is playing a key role in the water shortage
in China; increasing temperatures is one of the main factors exacerbating the crisis. On the one hand, glaciers in the Qinghai-
Tibetan Plateau – also known as ‘The Third Pole’ – that have fed the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers with
glacial meltwater for thousands of years, have retreated by 82% and more than one-fifth of
the ice cover has disappeared since the 1950s. According to Greenpeace, the shortage will
become ‘dramatically’ acute when these glaciers reach their ‘peak water’ – meaning that
the rate of water consumption surpasses water supply – something that might happen as
early as 2030. On the other hand, rising temperatures have also impacted atmospheric circulation,
making rainfall patterns unreliable and less frequent in northern and inland regions. Irregular rainfall
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has been the main culprit behind record-breaking droughts that have hit across the country in the last
decade. Following an unprecedented 116-day drought occurring in the capital city between October 2017 and February 2018, China’s
southern megacities Guangzhou and Shenzhen were faced with one of the most severe droughts in decades.
This means that affirming has the benefit of ensuring the billion people in China have water to
drink which of course they need more than they need more of the yen. People cannot drink yen
or grow crops with it and so the benefits of affirming clearly outweigh the costs and so we must
affirm.
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Negative Cases
First Negative
I negate the resolution, “Resolved: The People’s Republic of China ought to prioritize
Morality is best identified by a pragmatist approach which identifies the best or most
effective option for achieving ethical ends.
Serra 2010, Juan Pablo Serra (Degree in Philosophy from the Complutense University of Madrid (2003) and future PhD in Philosophy from the University of Navarra.
He was Professor of Anthropology at the Faculty of Communication of the Villanueva University Center. He currently teaches Philosophy, History of Thought, Anthropology and
History of Law in different degrees of the Francisco de Vitoria University), “What Is and What Should Pragmatic Ethics Be? Some Remarks on Recent Scholarship,” European
Journal of Pragmatism and American Philosophy, 2010, https://journals.openedition.org/ejpap/pdf/905
As LaFollette presents it, the key to understanding pragmatist ethics is that it is not an ethical theory per se, but rather it is an anthropology, a way of understanding the human being
and his moral action. Therefore, pragmatist ethics in reality does not propose a new ethical theory, but rather “reconstructs” through a new prism the basic intuitions of the best
ethical theories. The fundamental element on which the attention of pragmatist ethics centers is deliberation. Deliberation is not directly
responsible for directing action, but only does so indirectly, by means of a critique of past
actions, the effort to correct or reinforce certain habits and mental experiments that each actor performs in order to determine his
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own future conduct, and even to determine in a general manner the way in which one wishes to live one’s life (or, what amounts to the
same thing, the type of person one wishes to be). The task of a pragmatist ethics, therefore, is not to provide
final solutions, but rather to indicate that it is only via the testing and communication of
experiences that the superiority of one moral idea over another can be demonstrated. In this
sense, one of the principal missions of any given version of pragmatist ethics is to indicate
some general manner in which habits can be acquired which, later, will facilitate personal
deliberation – both internal and external – in the broad variety of circumstances which
make up the moral life.
So the criterion for the round is prioritizing the practical option. Prefer this criterion because ethics
that mandate the impractical or the impossible are useless and condemn people for actions they
cannot perform, like calling someone immoral for not breathing in outer space. So my criterion
comes first because it establishes what can be done. If I prove that prioritizing economic growth
is the most practical option, then it is the moral option, and we must negate.
I contend that prioritizing economic growth is the most practical option.
1. It is a myth that China does not work to protect its environment. History proves the
opposite.
Stalley ’22, Phillip Stalley (Endowed Professor of Environmental Diplomacy & Associate Professor of Political Science, DePaul
University), “China’s climate change record: Beijing tends to meet its targets, but sets the bar too low,” The Conversation, February 4,
2022, https://theconversation.com/chinas-climate-change-record-beijing-tends-to-meet-its-targets-but-sets-the-bar-too-low-172138
A common misconception is that China either lacks climate policies or fails to implement them. The reality is that China has a
robust set of climate and energy policies and a strong track record when it comes to
fulfilling its pledges to the international community. Driven by a desire to reduce air
pollution, enhance energy security and dominate the industries of the future, China has been the world’s leading
investor in renewable energy since 2013, and it has been buying up raw materials those industries need, such as
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cobalt mines in Africa. It has three times more renewable energy capacity than any other country,
and its electric vehicle use is growing. As of 2019, about half the world’s electric vehicles
and 98% of electric buses were in China. Overall, China achieved nine of the 15 quantitative
targets in its 2015 climate commitments ahead of schedule. Over the past decade, coal has
fallen from about 70% to 57% of its energy consumption. In September 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping
indicated that China will stop financing overseas coal power plants. This is likely to lead to the cancellation of much of the 65 gigawatts
of coal power plants it had planned in Asia, roughly three times the annual emissions of Bangladesh. And unlike the U.S., China
has also established a national emissions trading system for the electricity sector, though it lacks
a hard cap on emissions.
This means that contrary to popular belief, China does protect her environment and the Chinese
environment is in much better shape than the affirmative portrays it to be.
2. China’s economy is showing signs of economic collapse.
Nath ’19, Trevir Nath (has five years of experience as a financial writer working with various startups, financial services companies,
and news publications. Trevor is an expert on business, personal finance, and trading), “Is China's Economic Collapse Good For the
U.S.?” Investopedia, June 25, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091515/chinas-economic-collapse-good-us.asp
Regardless, it has become a growing belief among some market analysts that China is showing signs of a possible
economic collapse, pointing to recent events to substantiate their point. Over the course of 2015, China has suffered
from sinking oil prices, a shrinking manufacturing sector, a devalued currency and a
plummeting stock market. For the latter, over August 2015, the Nikkei 225 (N225) index declined
almost 12%, with a near 9% dive posted on a single day. The pain extends beyond the stock markets,
however. Oil prices, which have been declining for months, reached a six-year low in August, which has had an impact on the Chinese
stock exchange. In turn, losses in the Chinese stock market triggered global sell-offs and prompted
China to devaluate the yuan. (For more, read: What China Devaluating Its Currency Means to Investors.) Chinese demand
for oil is further decelerating, which, to close the circle, is one of many pressures keeping global oil prices low. Adding to the slowdown,
Chinese manufacturing has declined to its lowest level in three years. The official purchasing
manager’s index for August fell to 49.7, implying a contraction. This chain of events is becoming a source of alarm for some global
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economists. Worries of a continued freefall in China have raised concerns whether a spillover
effect could hit the U.S. and the global markets.
This means that the Chinese economy, as contrasted from the Chinese environment, is in bad shape
and could collapse bringing down global markets and harming all who depend upon the Chinese
economy. Thus the practical option is prioritizing the economy and so we must negate.
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Second Negative
I negate the resolution, “Resolved: The People’s Republic of China ought to prioritize
rejected which would mean dismissin a case that does not conclude to the value of morality. So,
Morality must be judged by effect and therefore consequentialism is the only legitimate moral
theory.
Dickens ’11, Michael Dickens, “The Case for Consequentialism,” Philosophical Multicore, June 16, 2011,
https://mdickens.me/2011/06/16/the-case-for-consequentialism/
Consequentialism asserts that actions should be judged by their consequences. The case for consequentialism is
simple: not only do consequences matter, but the only things that can possibly matter are
consequences. If something does not have an external effect, it cannot be a relevant consideration. Since rules and motives have
no necessary effect on the world, they do not have any inherent importance. This is not to deny that motives matter—
they are important, but only with respect to their effects. A person with good motives will tend to do good, so good
motives should be accepted and rewarded; a person with bad motives will tend to do harm, so bad motives should be discouraged. In
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short, good motives create sustainable good and bad motives do not. Motives in isolation, however, are irrelevant
to reality. If a person were placed in a box and cut off from the outside world, it would not
matter whether she had good intentions since she would be unable to effect any
consequences. She could have a loving and magnanimous spirit or she could be selfish and cruel, and the world would not know
the difference. Her intentions would matter no more than the color of her eyes: neither would affect the world. She might be called a
“good person”, but only because calling her so will encourage morally good actions in others. A will is only morally
relevant because of the actions it is likely to produce. Anything other than an effect,
practically by definition, does not matter. This applies to areas other than ethics as well.
For example, a basketball player may practice his sport, but he does not do it because it is
valuable in itself. Rather, he practices because he thinks that doing so will develop his
skills. If he cannot improve his game by training, then he will not train. The cause—practice—has no importance by itself; what
matters is the effect—better performance—that it brings about. Of course, an athlete might practice for reasons other than to improve
his abilities. Perhaps he wants exercise or considers it fun. But this only reinforces the point that an intention only matters because of its
effects. In the absence of any external results, practice is useless. In the case of practicing a sport, the only thing that matters is the
outcome. Practice has no inherent value; its value only arises from its consequences. This
conclusion holds just as strongly with regard to moral actions.
Thus the criterion to achieve morality is adhering to consequentialism. So to answer the question
of the resolution we must determine how consequentialism would evaluate whether economic
growth should be prioritized over the environment. If doing so leads to the best consequences,
then morality dictates that we negate.
I contend that China prioritizing economic growth over environmental protection leads to the best
consequences.
1. China is already embracing nature-based solutions to all the affirmative harms.
Yifan & Yi ’21, Jiang Yifan (is a senior editor at China Dialogue. For many years, he has been writing, reporting and editing
on international environmental and agrarian politics. He has an MPhil in Social Anthropology from the University of Bergen in Norway)
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& Shi Yi (senior researcher with China Dialogue, also contributed to this article), “14th Five Year Plan: China’s carbon-centred
environmental blueprint,” China Dialogue, March 25, 2021, https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/14th-five-year-plan-china-carbon-
centred-environmental-blueprint/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw8uOWBhDXARIsAOxKJ2FvAE3gKUcVAIuDIQwknvcTAUjw2-
x3kekBzuuTirMKQzqlM5i8N9MaAmDREALw_wcB
Similarly, synergies between protecting and restoring ecosystems and climate change are now being seen. The ministry has
called for attention to be paid to the role nature-based solutions have to play in responding to and mitigating
climate change – that is, using the carbon sequestration capacity and ecological services
provided by forests, rivers, lakes, grasslands and even farmland. The 14th FYP Outline
calls for carbon sequestration by ecosystems to be increased. That work is placed at the start of chapters
on the ecology and the environment, the first two components of which have to do with large-scale geographic interventions.
“Improving the system of ecological safety barriers” includes completion of ecological
buffers such as the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau and the northern forest shelterbelts; better
protection and management of rivers, lakes and wetlands; the protection of forests; land
greening; tackling soil loss, desertification and rocky desertification; and restoring
grasslands, wetlands and seas. “Building a system of nature reserves” refers to the establishment of national parks and
identifying and merging a number of nature reserves and nature parks, creating a three-tier system of natural protected areas, with
national parks at the top.
This means that China, despite the story the affirmative is telling, is already working to effectively
solve its environmental problems. Thus if its economy is in trouble, China must prioritize her
economy.
2. The problems with the Chinese property sector are an existential threat to the Chinese
economy.
Chang ’22, Gordon G. Chang (is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and The Great U.S.-China Tech War. Follow him
on Twitter @GordonGChang. Chang is also a Senior Editor for 1945), “The Chinese Economy Is In A Death Spiral,” 1945, May 21,
2022, https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/the-chinese-economy-is-in-a-death-spiral/
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The LD File China
Indications for the future of the property market and, therefore, the economy do not look good. Property accounts for
somewhere between 25% to 30% of total GDP. Around 70% of the household wealth of
the Chinese people is tied up in property. Apartments have become more than assets in China. In China, they have
become a store of wealth, the equivalent of money. This type of Chinese “money” looks like it will lose
value as confidence disappears. Investors pulled a record $17.5 billion of portfolio assets—
stocks and bonds—from China in March. The U.S.-based Institute of International Finance notes that the outflow
was confined to China and not part of a broader flight from emerging markets. The pullback continued a trend evident in February.
The flight of capital is, from all appearances, continuing. This trend will continue especially because the
U.S. Federal Reserve continues to increase U.S. interest rates while the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, cannot match the
rate hikes. Chinese monetary authorities are now caught in a bind. They need to force rates
down to stimulate the economy, but such moves would aggravate capital flight.
This means that the Chinese economy is in dire straits. With a billion people in China, and billions
more around the world dependent on the Chinese economy for their health and well-being, China
must shift to prioritizing her economy as this would lead to the best consequences and so we must
negate.
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The LD File China
Affirmative Extensions
China is the top emitter of greenhouse gases and is doubling down on fossil fuel use.
Maizland ’21, Lindsay Maizland (writes about Asia for CFR.org. Before joining CFR, she covered
breaking news for TEGNA’s central digital team and reported on world news for Vox. She holds
a BA in international relations and journalism from American University), “China’s Fight Against
Climate Change and Environmental Degradation,” Council on Foreign Relations, May 19, 2021,
China’s economic rise—national gross domestic product (GDP) grew 10 percent on average each
year for more than a decade—has greatly accelerated its emissions. In the past ten years, China
has emitted more greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, per year
than any other country in the world. It surpassed the United States as the top emitter in 2005,
according to Climate Watch. (Emissions per capita in the United States are still more than double
those in China.) Coal, which makes up nearly two-thirds of China’s energy consumption, is largely
to blame. The country is the world’s largest coal producer and accounts for about half of coal
consumed globally. The government banned the construction of new coal-fired power plants in
2016, and coal use appeared to decline. However, when the ban expired in 2018, construction of
new plants ramped up again. In 2020, China built over three times more [PDF] new coal-power
capacity than the rest of the world combined, according to Global Energy Monitor and the Center
for Research on Energy and Clean Air. China’s staggering pace of urbanization has also
contributed. Urbanization increases energy demands to power new manufacturing and industrial
centers, and construction of these centers relies on high energy–consuming products such as
cement and steel. Another contributor is the increase in cars on the road: In 2018, people in China
owned 240 million vehicles, up from about 27 million in 2004. Internationally, China is the largest
financier of fossil fuel infrastructure. Through its massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China
has built or is planning to build hundreds of coal-fired power plants in countries around the world.
More than 60 percent of BRI-specific energy financing has gone toward nonrenewable resources.
Greenhouse gas emissions in more than a dozen BRI countries have soared. Researchers found in
2019 that BRI could drive the global average temperature to increase by 2.7°C, significantly higher
than the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
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The LD File China
China is facing dire consequences from climate change.
Like the rest of the world, China will increasingly suffer over the next few decades from the effects
of climate change, which include sea-level rise, stronger storms, and more intense heat waves.
China’s average temperature and sea levels have risen faster than the global average, according to
a 2020 report from China’s National Climate Center. Some of China’s coastal cities, such as
Shanghai, could be submerged if the global average temperature continues to rise. An estimated
forty-three million people in China live on land that could be underwater by the end of the century
if the global average temperature rises by 2°C. Additionally, experts predict that China will
experience more frequent extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall. Every year, natural
disasters kill hundreds of Chinese people and destroy millions of acres of crops. As temperatures
rise, China’s glaciers will continue to melt at an alarming rate, which will likely lead to more
devastating floods. Extreme heat events and droughts will also become more common.
China is insufficiently committed to reducing emissions.

President Xi Jinping has recognized climate change as one of his administration’s top concerns,
and Beijing has made a variety of pledges to address it. These include: achieving carbon neutrality
by 2060; reaching peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030; having renewable energy sources
account for 25 percent of total energy consumption by 2030; reducing carbon intensity, or the
amount of carbon emitted per unit of GDP, by more than 65 percent by 2030; installing enough
solar and wind power generators to have a combined capacity of 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030;
and, boosting forest coverage by around six billion cubic meters by 2030. However, experts say
many of these goals aren’t ambitious enough and point out that they don’t align with each other or
with the Paris Agreement. For example, China would need to reach peak emissions by 2025 at the
latest to be in line with the Paris accord’s goal. Transitioning from coal to renewable energy is
critical to China’s efforts, and the country has already made some progress. In 2019, renewables
accounted for nearly 15 percent of China’s energy mix, compared to 7 percent a decade earlier.
China has used hydropower for years, and it is installing more solar panels and wind power
generators as the world’s leading manufacturer of those technologies. It is also boosting its nuclear
power capacity, with seventeen reactors under construction as of mid-2021. Moreover, Beijing and
some provinces are incentivizing electric vehicle use. In 2020, 1.37 million so-called new energy
vehicles—which include battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles—were
sold in China, a nearly 11 percent increase from the previous year. Still, experts point out that the
vast majority of electricity for such vehicles is produced with fossil fuels.
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The LD File China
China’s BRI efforts undermine the global fight against climate change.
Like the European Union and several other countries, China is working to launch a national
emissions trading scheme, which would force polluters to pay for environmental harm and thus
incentivize them to reduce their emissions. It would initially focus on coal- and gas-fired power
plants. However, the rollout has been delayed since the scheme was first announced in 2017, and
many details remain unclear. Even if China reaches its domestic goals, its financing of
nonrenewable energy projects abroad through BRI could make it “much harder for the planet to
curb climate change,” says American University’s Judith Shapiro, coauthor of the book China
Goes Green: Coercive Environmentalism for a Troubled Planet. Beijing has attempted to make
BRI more environmentally sustainable by announcing environmental standards, but so far these
have only been voluntary.
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The LD File China
China is facing many environmental challenges due to its carbon intensive industries.
Air pollution. Increased public awareness of China’s notoriously low air quality in the past
decade—especially after Beijing suffered a prolonged bout of smog in 2013 that was so severe
that citizens dubbed it an “airpocalypse”—has sparked government action. A plan released later
in 2013 ordered cities to lower concentrations of tiny hazardous particles known as PM2.5 and
directed local governments to implement tougher controls on pollution and coal use. As a result,
much of China has seen a significant drop in air pollution. But many regions continue to experience
stretches of extreme pollution, and hundreds of mostly northern cities still suffer from high levels
of PM2.5. Water insecurity. China is home to about 20 percent of the world’s population but only
7 percent of its freshwater sources. Overuse has led to severe shortages, and industry along China’s
major water sources has polluted supplies. Construction of hydropower dams along major rivers
has also damaged ecosystems. The government released a plan in 2015 for preventing water
pollution that included placing controls on polluting industries. The quality of surface waters—
bodies such as lakes, rivers, and streams—has since improved. However, groundwater continues
to fall short of targets, with more than 80 percent categorized as “bad to very bad.” Desertification.
More than one-quarter of China’s arable land is becoming desert due to the water crisis, negligent
farming practices, overgrazing, and the effects of climate change. The government has responded
by planting billions of trees, among other measures to increase vegetation. Desertified land is now
shrinking on average by nearly one thousand square miles each year, according to government
figures. Soil pollution. The government estimated in 2014 that nearly one-fifth of arable land is
contaminated. This has consequences for China’s food security: An estimated 12 million tons of
the 664 million tons of grain produced annually are polluted by heavy metals. Chemical factories
and other industrial sites are mainly to blame, but trash, electronic waste, rare-earth-metal mining,
overuse of pesticides, and contaminated water also contribute. In 2019, China’s first
comprehensive law to prevent soil pollution took effect, requiring polluters to limit their output or
pay for contamination. Two years later, China banned the import of all waste from other countries.
Nuclear waste. China has not suffered a nuclear accident in its three decades of operating nuclear
power plants, but some experts are concerned [PDF] that the risk will rise as the country ramps up
new construction and as existing plants age.
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The LD File China
Chinese environmental issues undermine its economy and kills millions of its citizens.
Pollution of the air, water, and soil has major consequences for the health and livelihoods of
China’s massive population. It has been linked to acute and chronic disease and preventable death.
Air pollution contributes to an estimated 1.1 million premature deaths in China annually.
Epidemiological studies conducted since the 1980s suggest that poor air quality in northern
Chinese cities causes significant health complications [PDF], including respiratory,
cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular diseases. An estimated sixty thousand people in China die of
illnesses caused by water pollution every year. Moreover, environmental issues cost the economy
billions of dollars each year, with some recent estimates putting the toll at up to 10 percent of GDP.
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment calculated the cost of pollution to be around 1.5 trillion
RMB ($227 billion), or roughly 3.5 percent of GDP, in 2010. (The ministry only releases such
figures intermittently.)
Air pollution is growing worse in China as it reopens after Covid.

Huang ’21, Yanzhong Huang (a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations
and a professor at Seton Hall University’s School of Diplomacy and International Relations, is the
author of Toxic Politics: China’s Environmental Health Crisis and its Challenge to the Chinese
State), “The Environmental Challenges of China's Recovery After COVID-19,” Time, February
2, 2021, https://time.com/5935138/chinas-environment-economic-recovery/
There is a Chinese saying, “misfortune is a blessing in disguises.” Being the first country to be hit
by the COVID-19 outbreak, China is also among the first economies that are recovering rapidly
from the outbreak. Beating pessimistic forecast, Beijing expanded its economy by 2.3 percent in
2020, making it the only major economy registering positive growth last year. What is also
rebounding is its air pollution level. According to Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy
and Clean Air (CREA), by early May levels of concentration of air pollutants – PM2.5, NO2, SO2
and ozone – all returned to or exceeding the monthly levels recorded the previous year. In October,
PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the China-equivalent to Germany’s
densely packed Ruhr region, saw an increase of 15.6 percent over the same month last year, raising
concerns that the region risks falling short of its winter pollution control targets. To the extent that
the coronavirus lockdown reduced traffic and economic activities, it is no surprise that China saw
the rebound of emissions from power plants, industry and transport as the lockdown was lifted and
economic activity and industrial production resumed. But the return to air pollution in China
threatens to reverse past gains of pollution control in the world’s largest emitter. Prior to the
outbreak, the improvement in air quality achieved by sweeping air quality control measures was
already being offset by the rapid increase in the production and consumption of steel and coal since
2017. According to an analysis of PM2.5 data in 15 major Chinese cities, conducted by an Asia-
based social enterprise Smart Air, PM2.5 concentration level increased in more than half of the
cities in 2019.
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The LD File China
Chinese leaders cannot resist the temptation to seek ever more economic growth.
Herein lies the quandary for Chinese leaders: despite party leaders’ proclaimed strong commitment
to pollution control, they cannot resist the urge to pursue robust economic growth in order to ensure
employment and maintain sociopolitical stability. Yet under China’s existing industrial structure,
which relies on energy-driven heavy industry to generate growth, this effort is bound to undermine
pollution control efforts. In 2019, more than 66 percent of the electricity in China was generated
using coal power, which is a leading contributor to air pollution in China. Convinced that high
economic growth ultimately leads to environmental improvements, some Chinese elites insist that
economic development is a sine qua non for solving the country’s environmental problems. Justin
Yifu Lin, a renowned government economist in China, even argued that economic growth was not
the primary factor behind China’s smog problem, and that China should speed up growth to
fundamentally solve its environmental crisis. In September 2019, Premier Li Keqiang reaffirmed
that economic development be taken as the central goal.
Local leaders in China are pushing for more economic growth, undermining national
efforts to protect the environment.
The post-COVID-19 economic recovery in China has only exacerbated the dilemma between
environmental protection and economic growth. In order to get China’s economy back on track,
Premier Li called for revitalizing “stall economy,” i.e., encouraging people to set up curbside stalls
as full-time jobs. Yet these open-air street shops are also considered a “stumbling block” to China’s
efforts to “win the blue sky war.” The debate placed Premier Li at odds with President Xi Jinping,
who over the past years has led a clean air campaign against street vendors. Unfortunately, the
archaic governance structure in China does not help resolve this dilemma. When top leaders
themselves disagree with each other on policy priorities, subordinates gain more leeway to exercise
strategic disobedience or “buck-passing” – shirking their responsibilities in pollution control. A
provincial leader recently asked local industries to “go all out to make up for the loss” incurred by
the outbreak. A city party secretary of the eastern Jiangsu province urged local cadres to
“accelerate economic growth with passion.” As GDP growth becomes a top priority, pollution
control is on a back burner. The coal-fired capacity under construction and in planning in June
2020 saw a 21 percent increase over the end of 2019. The party boss of the Ministry of Ecology
and Environment admitted that while the situation of environmental degradation remains grim in
China, the urge to stimulate local economic growth only make it more difficult to sustain
environmental protection efforts.
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The LD File China
Chinese pollution and internal challenges from pollution threaten the rest of the
world.
But the impact of air pollution is not going to be confined within China’s borders. Research
suggested that air pollution from China contributes to up to 65 percent of the ozone increase in the
Western United States. A Pew survey in March 2020 reveals that China’s impact on the global
environment tops Americans’ list of concerns toward China. China’s failure to tackle such internal
challenges may also prompt the state to act more aggressively on the foreign policy front to deflect
domestic criticism in an attempt to shore up its political legitimacy. The end result could be a
faltering China that is perhaps more dangerous than a rising one.
Rising sea levels dangerously threaten China’s coast metropolises.

Myers, Bradsher, and Buckley ’21, Steven Lee Myers (a veteran foreign and national security
correspondent for The New York Times, currently based in California covering misinformation at
home and abroad. From China, he contributed to the articles on the coronavirus pandemic that won
the Pulitzer Prize for public service in 2021), Keith Bradsher (the Pulitzer Prize-winning Beijing
bureau chief for The New York Times. He previously served as the Shanghai bureau chief, Hong
Kong bureau chief and Detroit bureau chief), & Chris Buckley (chief China correspondent and
lived in China for most of the past 30 years after growing up in Sydney, Australia. Before joining
The Times in 2012, he was a correspondent in Beijing for Reuters), “As China Boomed, It Didn’t
Take Climate Change Into Account. Now It Must,” The New York Times, July 26, 2021,
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/world/asia/china-climate-change.html
Rising sea levels now threaten China’s coastal metropolises, while increasingly severe storms will
batter inland cities that, like Zhengzhou, are sinking under the weight of development that was
hastily planned, with buildings and infrastructure that were sometimes shoddily constructed. Even
Beijing, which was hit by a deadly flash flood in 2012 that left 79 dead, still does not have the
drainage system needed to siphon away rainfall from a major storm, despite the capital’s glittering
architectural landmarks signifying China’s rising status. In Zhengzhou, officials described the
torrential rains that fell last week as a once-in-a-millennium storm that no amount of planning
could have prevented. Even so, people have asked why the city’s new subway system flooded,
trapping passengers as water steadily rose, and why a “smart tunnel” under the city’s third ring
road flooded so rapidly that people in cars had little time to escape.
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The LD File China
China cannot embrace easy solutions; it must fully commit to protecting the
environment.
Myers, Bradsher, and Buckley ’21, Steven Lee Myers (a veteran foreign and national security correspondent
for The New York Times, currently based in California covering misinformation at home and abroad. From
China, he contributed to the articles on the coronavirus pandemic that won the Pulitzer Prize for public
service in 2021), Keith Bradsher (the Pulitzer Prize-winning Beijing bureau chief for The New York Times.
He previously served as the Shanghai bureau chief, Hong Kong bureau chief and Detroit bureau chief), &
Chris Buckley (chief China correspondent and lived in China for most of the past 30 years after growing
up in Sydney, Australia. Before joining The Times in 2012, he was a correspondent in Beijing for Reuters),
“As China Boomed, It Didn’t Take Climate Change Into Account. Now It Must,” The New York Times,
July 26, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/world/asia/china-climate-change.html
The worsening impact of climate change could pose a challenge to the ruling Communist Party, given that
political power in China has long been associated with the ability to master natural disasters. A public
groundswell several years ago about toxic air pollution in Beijing and other cities ultimately forced the
government to act. “As we have more and more events like what has happened over the last few days, I do
think there will be more national realization of the impact of climate change and more reflection on what
we should do about it,” said Li Shuo, a climate analyst with Greenpeace in China. China’s urbanization
has in some ways made the adjustment easier. It has relocated millions of people from countryside villages
that had far fewer defenses against recurring floods. That is why the toll of recent floods has been in the
hundreds and thousands, not in the millions, as some of the worst disasters in the country’s history were.
The experience of Zhengzhou, though, underscores the extent of the challenges that lie ahead — and the
limits of easy solutions. Once a mere crossroads south of a bend in the Yellow River, the city has expanded
exponentially since China’s economic reforms began more than 40 years ago. Today, skyscrapers and
apartment towers stretch into the distance. The city’s population has doubled since 2001, reaching 12.6
million. Zhengzhou floods so frequently that residents mordantly joke about it. “No need to envy those
cities where you can view the sea,” read one online comment that spread during a flood in 2011, according
to a report in a local newspaper. “Today we welcome you to view the sea in Zhengzhou.” In 2016, the city
was one of 16 chosen for a pilot program to expand green space to mitigate flooding — the “sponge city”
concept. The idea, not unlike what planners in the United States call “low-impact development,” is to
channel water away from dense urban spaces into parks and lakes, where it can be absorbed or even
recycled. Yu Kongjian, the dean of the School of Landscape Architecture at Peking University, is credited
with popularizing the idea in China. He said in a telephone interview that in its rapid development since the
1980s, China had turned to designs from the West that were ill-suited for the extremes that the country’s
climate was already experiencing. Cities were covered in cement, “colonized,” as he put it, by “gray
infrastructure.” China, in his view, needs to “revive ancient wisdom and upgrade it,” setting aside natural
spaces for water and greenery the way ancient farmers once did. Under the program, Zhengzhou has built
more than 3,000 miles of new drainage, eliminated 125 flood-prone areas and created hundreds of acres of
new green spaces, according to an article in Zhengzhou Daily, a state-owned newspaper. One such space
is Diehu Park, or Butterfly Lake Park, where weeping willows and camphor trees surround an artificial
lake. It opened only last October. It, too, was inundated last week. “Sponges absorb water slowly, not fast,”
Dai Chuanying, a maintenance worker at the park, said on Friday. “If there’s too much water, the sponge
cannot absorb all of it.” Even before this past week’s flooding, some had questioned the concept. After the
city saw flooding in 2019, the China Youth Daily, a party-run newspaper, lamented that the heavy spending
on the projects had not resulted in significant improvements. Others noted that sponge cities were not a
panacea. They were never intended for torrential rain like that in Zhengzhou on July 20, when eight inches
of rain fell in one hour.
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The LD File China
China can easily build public support for fighting climate change.
Myers, Bradsher, and Buckley ’21, Steven Lee Myers (a veteran foreign and national security
correspondent for The New York Times, currently based in California covering misinformation at
home and abroad. From China, he contributed to the articles on the coronavirus pandemic that won
the Pulitzer Prize for public service in 2021), Keith Bradsher (the Pulitzer Prize-winning Beijing
bureau chief for The New York Times. He previously served as the Shanghai bureau chief, Hong
Kong bureau chief and Detroit bureau chief), & Chris Buckley (chief China correspondent and
lived in China for most of the past 30 years after growing up in Sydney, Australia. Before joining
The Times in 2012, he was a correspondent in Beijing for Reuters), “As China Boomed, It Didn’t
Take Climate Change Into Account. Now It Must,” The New York Times, July 26, 2021,
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/world/asia/china-climate-change.html
The factories that have driven China’s growth also pumped out more and more of the gases that
contribute to climate change, while also badly polluting the air. Like countries everywhere, China
now faces the tasks of reducing emissions and preparing for the effects of global warming that
increasingly seem unavoidable. Mr. Chan, the professor, said that in China the issue of climate
change has not been as politically polarizing as in, for example, the United States. That could make
it easier to build public support for the changes local and national governments have to make,
many of which will be costly. “I know for cities, the questions of land use are expensive, but we’re
talking about climate change,” he said. “We’re talking about future development for the next
generation or the next, next generation.”
China is in a unique position to lead the global efforts to fight climate change.
Chunquan & Neo ’22, Zhu Chunquan (Head of China Nature Initiatives, World Economic Forum)
& Gim Huay Neo (Managing Board, Head of Centre for Nature and Climate, World Economic
Forum), “This is why China needs to become nature positive - and how to do it,” World Economic
Forum, January 17, 2022, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/15-key-action-points-to-
China has pledged “Dual Carbon Goals” to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality
by 2060, and has also pledged to reversing global deforestation by 2030. But addressing climate
change alone will not be enough to safeguard our economies and societies from future shocks. Just
as urgent is the need to build momentum across all sectors of society to combat nature and
biodiversity loss. China is in a unique position to strengthen its resolve and lead the transition to
a nature positive, net zero and equitable economy. As the host of the UN CBD CoP15, China has
developed the concept of ‘an ecological civilization’, living in harmony with nature, and has
prioritized and upgraded the area of biodiversity to a national strategy. Protection, restoration and
sustainable management of nature and its services are essential to meeting the Paris Agreement
Climate Goals. Research shows that China’s terrestrial ecosystems have the potential to store 80
billion tons of carbon dioxide per annum, the equivalent of eight times the country’s 2019
emissions.
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The LD File China
Affirming is actually better for the Chinese economy than is negating.
The new report puts forward 15 priority transitions in three priority socioeconomic systems that
can unlock USD1.9 trillion in annual business value and create 88 million jobs in China by 2030.
Food, land and ocean use: Shift the way we produce and consume. Six pathways across this system
can create almost $596.1 billion of additional annual revenue while creating over 34 million new
jobs by 2030. For example, 27% of China’s land has been impacted by desertification, with only
a third of the total arable land area being high yielding. This extreme nature risk also offers great
opportunities for putting in place regenerative practices and the right business models. In the
Ulaanbuwa Desert, China’s leading organic dairy company, Shengmu, invested more than USD
110 million in the past 10 years to transform the desert into grazing land for its organic milk
production. 90 million trees of various types have been planted in the Ulaanbuwa Desert, greening
more than 200 square kilometres of the desert.
China could grow by greening its cities and transportation systems.

It is estimated that 75% of the Chinese population will be living in cities by 2030, up from 63.9%
in 2020. As China makes progress in socioeconomic development and urbanization, new nature
positive business opportunities will emerge, presenting USD 590 billion of additional business
value while creating 30 million new jobs by 2030. The Foshan Nanhai Solid Waste Treatment
Industrial Park is an example of leveraging innovative technology and circular business model to
address the increasing challenge of urban solid waste in China. Today, urban solid waste amounts
to almost 10 billion tons every year and is still growing at 8% annually. With a total area of 30.7
hectares, the Nanhai industrial park built a comprehensive sustainable waste treatment system
including sludge drying, waste incineration and facilities to handle 26 major types of hazardous
waste. Among the different treatment plants, resources are recycled and utilised synergistically.
For example, electricity generated from waste incineration is used to power the entire park, and
the excess heat from incineration steam is used for sludge drying.
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The LD File China
China can restore nature in its country while decarbonizing its economy.
By 2030, the report estimates a total of USD 586 billion of additional business opportunities and
18 million new jobs by 2030 in nature positive transition in the energy and extractive sector. A
crucial strategy to achieving the “Dual Carbon Goals”, for example, is the electrification of vehicle
fleets, which leads to increased demand for batteries. As the energy transition accelerates and
demands for certain metals grows, pressure from the energy and extractive industry will increase,
too. To address the potential environmental downside, the Ministry of Industry and Information
Technology encouraged car manufacturers to take responsibility for the process of recycling
batteries from end-of-life electric vehicles in 2018. As a result, Geely Automobile, one of China’s
major independent car brands, funded a joint venture dedicated to maximizing the recycling
opportunity for waste lithium batteries. In 2019, Geely Automobile's average recycling rate of
materials from end-of-life cars was at 96.8%. Through this, they were demonstrating the potential
for the green manufacturing of car batteries and other autoresources to generate new business
opportunities in China and beyond.
The Chinese Communist Party has a devastating record of environmental abuses.

The US Department of State ’17-’21, The US Department of State, “China’s Environmental
Abuses,” 2017-2021, https://2017-2021.state.gov/chinas-environmental-abuses/index.html
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases; the
largest source of marine debris; the worst perpetrators of illegal, unreported, and unregulated
(IUU) fishing; and the world’s largest consumer of trafficked wildlife and timber products. While
the Chinese people have suffered the worst environmental impacts of its actions, Beijing also
threatens the global economy and global health by unsustainably exploiting natural resources and
exporting its willful disregard for the environment through its One Belt One Road initiative.
Tragically, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) represses civil society and a free press, slowing
changes that would benefit its citizens and people all over the world.
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The LD File China
The Chinese Communist Party hides behind developing nation status to continue to
increase their greenhouse gas emissions.
Despite claims of international environmental leadership, China’s energy-related carbon dioxide

(CO2) emissions are rising. It has been the world’s largest annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter
since 2006. China’s total energy-related emissions are twice that of the United States and nearly
one third of all emissions globally. Beijing’s energy-related emissions increased more than 80
percent between 2005-2019 , while U.S. energy-related emissions have decreased by more than 15
percent. In 2019 alone, China’s energy-related CO2 emissions increased more than 3 percent,
while the United States’ decreased by 2 percent. Beijing claims “developing-country” status to
avoid shouldering more responsibility for reducing GHG emissions–though its per capita CO2
emissions have already reached the level of many high-income countries. China’s increasing
emissions counteract the progress of many other countries around the world to reduce global
emissions.
The Chinese Communist Party continues to use ozone depleting chemicals.

Through the Montreal Protocol, the nations of the world agreed to phase out production of
substances that damage the ozone layer. But scientists identified an increase of emissions of the
phased-out, ozone-depleting substance CFC-11 from Eastern China from 2014 to 2017. The
United States leads the international response and continues to push China to live up to its
obligations and increase its monitoring and enforcement efforts.
The air quality in China is still unhealthy and affects neighboring countries.
In 2008, U.S. diplomats installed air quality monitors on top of U.S. Embassy Beijing. The United
States shared the data publicly and revealed what local residents already knew: Beijing’s air
quality was dangerously worse than the Chinese government was willing to admit. That small act
of transparency helped catalyze a revolution in air quality management, and Beijing has since
made air quality a priority, including establishing new ambient air quality standards. Despite
significant improvements in large cities, the overall level of air pollution in China remains
unhealthy, and air pollution from China continues to affect downwind countries.
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The LD File China
China is the world’s worst mercury polluter.
China’s unsafe industrial processes also make it the world’s greatest emitter of mercury, a
neurotoxin, and a major public health threat when allowed to pollute the air, water, and soil. China
leads the world in mercury air pollution from its own dirty coal-burning power plants, as well as
the plants that Chinese state-owned companies finance, build, and operate in other countries. The
United States was the first country to join the 2013 Minamata Convention on Mercury, an
international agreement that seeks to protect human health and the environment by
comprehensively addressing mercury sources, trade, its use in products, emissions, storage, and
waste. In addition, the U.S. Department of State’s Mercury Program funds projects to promote
better environmental practices among artisanal and small-scale gold miners (ASGM), reducing the
use of mercury used while maintaining or increasing the miners’ recovery of gold. The program
also funds projects to reduce mercury emissions from coal combustion. PRC is also Party to the
Minamata Convention on Mercury, yet it continues to enable its citizens to promote mercury use
in ASGM in many developing countries.
The Chinese Communist Party continues to tolerate massive illegal wildlife

trafficking.
China’s unsafe industrial processes also make it the world’s greatest emitter of mercury, a
neurotoxin, and a major public health threat when allowed to pollute the air, water, and soil. China
leads the world in mercury air pollution from its own dirty coal-burning power plants, as well as
the plants that Chinese state-owned companies finance, build, and operate in other countries. The
United States was the first country to join the 2013 Minamata Convention on Mercury, an
international agreement that seeks to protect human health and the environment by
comprehensively addressing mercury sources, trade, its use in products, emissions, storage, and
waste. In addition, the U.S. Department of State’s Mercury Program funds projects to promote
better environmental practices among artisanal and small-scale gold miners (ASGM), reducing the
use of mercury used while maintaining or increasing the miners’ recovery of gold. The program
also funds projects to reduce mercury emissions from coal combustion. PRC is also Party to the
Minamata Convention on Mercury, yet it continues to enable its citizens to promote mercury use
in ASGM in many developing countries.
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The LD File China
China is the world’s largest consumer of illegal timber products.
China is the world’s largest consumer of illegal timber products. It drives illegal logging in
producer countries, feeds associated trade in illegally harvested products worth $52-157 billion
per year, and fuels corruption and transnational organized crime. In addition, Chinese investment
in foreign infrastructure and natural resource sectors use unfair economic practices, disregard
environmental and social safeguards, and target countries with weak oversight and enforcement
institutions that make them susceptible to predatory Chinese extraction. These irresponsible
development practices contribute to deforestation and land degradation and undercut the legitimate
forest industry around the globe. China should follow the lead of the United States and others and
implement a comprehensive ban on illegal timber imports.
China is responsible for millions of tons of plastic waste pollutants annually.

China is the biggest producer and exporter of plastic products, accounting for nearly 30 percent of
the world’s total. A 2019 comprehensive literature review by Tianjin University estimates China
is the world’s leading generator of plastic waste. At least 13 percent of China’s domestic plastic
waste is unmanaged and released or dumped directly into the environment as pollution, translating
into millions of tons per year. While the CCP previously supported global plastic recycling, the
“National Sword” policy (which took effect in 2018) severely restricted the import of recyclable
plastic scrap and disrupted the global plastic scrap trade. Now, most plastic scrap, which China
had imported before 2018, is landfilled, incinerated, or processed by developing countries ill-suited
to manage the sudden increase, ultimately further straining ecosystems. The United States
supports environmentally sound management of all waste and scrap and promotes sustainable
materials management (SMM), a systematic approach to using and reusing materials more
productively over their entire life cycles.
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The LD File China
China’s One Belt One Road Initiative is environmentally destructive to multiple
countries.
China’s signature One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR), more commonly known as the Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI), aspires to create a network of enhanced overland and maritime trade routes
to better link China with the world. However, implementation of BRI lacks clear environmental
guidelines, safety standards, and worker protections. Many BRI-funded projects do not meet
international standards, leaving countries to deal with the harmful consequences long after a
project is completed. Environmental safeguards depend on the laws of host countries, and Beijing
is leading nations away from developing their economies sustainably. In recent years, Chinese-
backed projects on several continents have displaced local populations, negatively affected water
quality, polluted adjacent land, and spoiled fragile ecosystems. Many planned Chinese
infrastructure projects worldwide would do similar harm. The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) has
found BRI corridors overlap with over 1,700 critical biodiversity sites and the ranges of 265
threatened species that could be adversely affected by BRI projects. A study published in Nature
Sustainability suggested BRI projects may lead to “permanent environmental degradation” due to
environmental harm through pollution, habitat loss, and wildlife mortality, among others.
China is the leading polluter of the world’s oceans.

China is the top source of marine plastic debris. According to its own experts, China released up
to one million tons of plastic waste into the ocean in 2017. The presence of plastics in the ocean
costs the maritime, fishing, and tourism industries billions of dollars every year and threatens food
security and public health. According to a 2020 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
forum report, the damage from marine debris to APEC member economies was estimated at over
$11 billion in 2015 alone.
China is the world’s worst perpetrator of illegal and unsustainable fishing.

China is placing increased pressure on global fish stocks through unsustainable fishing practices.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) subsidizes the world’s largest fishing fleet, including one of
the largest distant-water fishing fleets operating on the high seas and in other countries’ waters.
Chinese vessels routinely violate the sovereign rights and jurisdiction of other coastal States, fish
without permission, and overfish licensing agreements. Despite Beijing’s claiming a “zero-
tolerance” policy when it comes to these issues, the problems are widespread. China is one of the
world’s worst perpetrators of illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing (IUU), disregarding
fisheries management measures. In response, the United States is developing new tools and
working with international partners to ensure global fishing is legal and sustainable, while
encouraging the CCP to more effectively and transparently police the activities of its fleets and
hold violators accountable.
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The LD File China
China has dammed the Mekong River leading to environmental destruction and
famine.
China’s operation of its cascade of mega dams, opaque water management practices, and unilateral
alteration of water flow in the upstream portion of the Mekong River have resulted in catastrophic
consequences for its downstream neighbors. In December 2019 at the Mekong Research
Symposium, researchers presented troubling evidence regarding China’s manipulation of the
Mekong River’s flows for the past 25 years. Further analyses of publicly available satellite data
and Mekong River Commission river height record confirmed that the greatest disruption in natural
flows coincided with major dam construction and operation, exacerbated drought conditions, and
contributed to immeasurable damage to fishing and agriculture. These problems are compounded
by the PRC’s failure to share critical water flow data, without which Mekong region nations cannot
effectively manage water resources or prepare for and mitigate the impacts of floods and droughts.
The United States urges China to deliver on its recent commitment to share year-round water data
and work in concert with the Mekong River Commission (MRC) to capitalize on existing
partnerships and platforms for data sharing, including the MRC’s Data and Information Sharing
Platform and the Mekong Water Data Initiative (MWDI).
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The LD File China
As bad as the air is in China, its groundwater is not much better.
Igini ’22, Martina Igini (an Italian graduate student in International Development. She holds two
Bachelor's degrees, one in Journalism and one in Translation and Interpreting Studies. Her interests
include sustainability and the role of public policy in environmental protection, especially in
developing countries. She has extensive experience working as a journalist and in 2020, she
interned at the Global Communication Department of the United Nations Office in Vienna. She
currently lives and works in Hong Kong as Assistant Editor at Earth.Org), “5 Worrisome
Environmental Issues in China in 2022,” Earth.org, June 23, 2022, https://earth.org/environmental-
issues-in-china/
High on the list of environmental issues in China is water pollution. As much as 90% of the
country’s groundwater is contaminated by toxic human and industrial waste dumping, as well as
farm fertilisers, causing about 70% of rivers and lakes to be unsafe for human use. Nearly half of
the population does not have access to water that is safe for human consumption, while two-thirds
of the rural population has to rely on tainted water due to a lack of adequate systems to treat
wastewater. Based on this, it is clear that in China, the water you drink is as dangerous as the air
you breathe. While air pollution can be observed by the naked eye, underground water pollution
in cities is not as visible, causing it to be virtually forgotten and continue unabated. For decades,
factories were able to discharge their wastewater into lakes and rivers across the country due to
poor environmental regulations, weak enforcement, and the government’s failure to crack down
on polluting industries. However, significant progress has been made in recent years. The
Thirteenth Five Year Plan (13FYP) in 2016 set specific goals for water consumption and water
quality, aiming at reducing water consumption by 23% from 2015 levels by 2020. This includes
upgrading urban sewage facilities, increasing rates of wastewater treatment, and forcing farmers
to reduce the use of chemical fertilisers and insecticides in a bid to reduce contamination from
agricultural pollutants. According to the 2020 State of Ecology & Environment Report, most of
the key targets set in 13FYP have been met and exceeded, owing to the fact that within a very short
period of time, the country managed to build more than 39,000 new sewage treatment facilities in
95% of municipalities and 30% of rural areas. To further improve water quality, the Chinese
government funded the construction or renovation of nearly 80,000 kilometres of sewage
collection pipeline network between 2021 and 2025. Despite surface water continuing to improve,
groundwater quality still has a long way to go, with just 13.6% considered fit for human
consumption, according to the report. Water pollution still causes more than 100,000 deaths and
economic losses of USD$1.5 trillion each year; this environmental issue is therefore something
that China can no longer afford to ignore.
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The LD File China
Negative Extensions
In the wake of Covid, China is struggling to grow its economy.

Elliot ’22, Larry Elliott (is the Guardian's economics editor), “China’s struggles delight some –
but should make us all nervous,” The Guardian, May 2022,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/15/china-struggle-delight-nervous-covid-threat-
economy
China has been central to the story of globalisation over the past 30 years, but now it is struggling.
More than two years after Covid-19 cases were discovered in Wuhan, the world’s most populous
country has yet to get on top of the virus. Draconian lockdowns have been imposed because
China’s vaccines are less effective than those available in the west, and immunity levels are lower
as well. Growth is slowing, and not just because of the tough restrictions insisted upon by
President Xi Jinping. Flaws in China’s economic model coupled with a more hostile geopolitical
climate mean the days of explosive expansion are over. Unlike the US, the UK or the euro area,
China is not facing the inflationary problem that has prompted central banks to raise (or think
about raising) interest rates. On the contrary, the People’s Bank of China is easing policy to
stimulate credit growth. The authorities will try to spend and export their way out of trouble.
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The LD File China
China is struggling to grow economically in the wake of a backlash to globalization.
economy
China’s emergence as an economic superpower was finally recognised in the aftermath of the
global financial crisis of 2007-09. With its banks unable to function normally, the US was
incapable of assuming its traditional task of hauling the global economy out of recession. Instead,
the locomotive role went to China, which provided a twin boost to its economy through public
investment and credit expansion. China grew at double-digit rates, sucking in goods from Germany
and Japan. There were costs to this policy, one economic and one political. The economic cost
was that China generated a colossal amount of debt, which fuelled a property boom. Non-financial
debt as a share of the economy’s annual output (gross domestic product) has more than doubled
since its pre-global financial crisis levels to 290% of GDP. The problems of the property giant
Evergrande emphasised the vulnerability of the economy to a debt crisis. The political cost started
off being a matter of perception: fear in the US that China was a threat to American economic
hegemony. Washington had been concerned in the 1980s about the threat posed by Japan, but
China was a whole different ball game. Initially, the assumption in Washington was that as China
became richer, so its political system would become more democratic. Xi’s hardline approach to
dissent has disabused US politicians of this notion. As a result, the globalisation process first
stalled and then went into reverse. The US turned protectionist under Trump and encouraged firms
to bring their production back home. Complaints about Chinese patent piracy and the theft of
intellectual property grew louder. The US put pressure on its allies, Britain included, to ban
Chinese inward investment in specific sectors. This trend was then amplified by the pandemic,
which made the west even warier of being exposed to long supply chains that begin in China. And
while China will eventually emerge from Covid-19 lockdowns, the recent restrictions imposed in
Shanghai and elsewhere have added to the nervousness. Early 2017, when Xi turned up at the
World Economic Forum in Davos as the defender of globalisation, seems an awfully long time
ago.
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The LD File China
If China’s economy collapses it would be devastating the globe.
economy
The upshot of all this is that China’s growth rate looks certain to slow. Weaker growth and a zero-
tolerance approach to Covid create the conditions for political dissent – and political crackdowns.
The underlying problems of the economy may get worse, especially if the authorities take the view
that unbalanced growth is better than no growth at all. There will be many in the west, and in the
US in particular, who will take delight in China’s discomfort. Not much unites Democrats and
Republicans these days, but one of the things that does is hostility towards Beijing. Donald
Trump’s trade war led to a marked cooling of relations, but they have remained chilly under Joe
Biden. Washington should be careful what it wishes for. China is a massive economy, and a full-
blown economic crash would be as damaging to the world as another subprime mortgage crisis in
the US or the breakup of the euro.
A Chinese economic collapse could crash our stock market.

economy
There is, though, another reason to be concerned. As Charles Dumas notes in a report for TS
Lombard, China’s full integration into the global economy since the early 1990s has been a key
factor behind the steady rise in share prices on Wall Street. Dumas says the past 100 years or so
can be divided into two parts: the period 1914-91 and the post-cold war era. The first period
included two world wars, the Great Depression of the 1930s and the high inflation of the 1970s,
with an alternative to capitalism always on offer from communism. The second period saw
capitalism triumph over communism and western firms move to China, where labour costs were
lower. Profits went up, and the yield demanded by investors for putting their money at risk went
down. “The” danger in current markets is that the invasion by Russia of Ukraine, together with
US-China divisions and de-globalisation, heralds insecurity for investors that requires a greater
real-earnings yield in what could prove to become a new cold war between the west and
China/Russia (the former communist, now totalitarian states),” Dumas says. There have been four
stock market busts in the past 100 years: the Wall Street crash of 1929, the bursting of the Japanese
equity bubble in 1991, the dotcom implosion a decade later and the global financial crisis. Stock
markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks, and the assumption – as always – is that they will
bounce back. The fact is, though, the world is a riskier place than it was not long ago, and China
is one big reason for that.
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The LD File China
China’s economy is facing a real estate crisis.
Hsu ’22, Dr. Sara Hsu (is an expert in Chinese fintech, economic development, informal finance,
and shadow banking. She is the author of “China’s Fintech Explosion.”), “China’s Core Economic
Issues in 2022,” January 3, 2022, https://thediplomat.com/2022/01/chinas-core-economic-issues-
in-2022/
China’s real estate developers suffered through 2021 due to increased financial restrictions, which
led some developers, most famously Evergrande, to default on some debt repayments. Commercial
sales and real estate investment growth have slowed down. Debt among property developers will
continue to pose a barrier to achieving financial health in this sector. The economic work meeting
laid out the need to promote the construction of affordable housing and adjust the commercial
housing market to better meet buyers’ housing needs. This industry represents a key investment
channel for consumers, and falling home prices are quickly shored up by local government
policies. At the same time, consumers often face challenges in purchasing new homes due to the
higher prices, which the government attempts to address by encouraging the construction of
affordable housing. The question surrounding China’s real estate downturn is the extent to which
debt defaults will impact the rest of the financial sector as well as domestic investors. The
government has signaled that it is willing to ease financial terms to some extent in order to reduce
fallout; in December, the central bank lowered the loan prime rate and reserve requirement ratio
in order to increase bank lending to creditworthy customers. Meanwhile, it appears unlikely that
the government will directly bail out indebted developers, choosing to use monetary tools in order
to ease the accompanying credit crunch. The government has also encouraged banks to help
healthy developers acquire distressed developers’ projects.
China is beginning to see issues with producer price inflation which could further slow
economic growth.
in-2022/
Producer price inflation created rising prices in 2021 without heavily impacting consumer price
inflation. This was due to high commodity prices and transportation bottlenecks, combined with
labor and energy shortages. Supply chain disruptions are likely to continue somewhat into 2022,
easing by the second half of the year as interruptions due to COVID-19 and surging demand
stabilize. In addition, China’s power shortages due to emissions restrictions will be reset in 2022,
and production plans are likely to be adjusted. Producers have begun to pass through higher costs
to consumers, resulting in a slight rise in consumer price inflation. Somewhat increasing food
prices have also resulted in higher CPI. Rising demand ahead of Chinese New Year is expected to
result in a higher CPI to some extent in January. In addition, inflation in the United States and the
European Union is likely to be transmitted to China through rising import prices. Therefore,
although CPI remains much lower than PPI, CPI is likely to rise in 2022.
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The LD File China
China is facing its slowest economic growth in decades.
in-2022/
The Chinese government has prioritized economic stability for 2022. Han Wenxiu, deputy director
of the Office of the Central Committee of Finance and Economics, stated after the Central
Economic Work Conference that officials must be cautious in introducing policies that have an
economic tightening effect. The World Bank has set China’s 2022 growth forecast to 5.1 percent,
a much slower pace of growth than China averaged in previous decades. China is likely to shore
up GDP by investing, once again, in fixed assets. Infrastructure investment will comprise a large
part of this. The country will probably issue more special bonds in order to partly finance fiscal
spending. The Beijing Winter Olympics to be held in February will also stimulate the economy to
some extent. New technology industries such as new energy vehicles and industrial robots will
continue to provide a source of economic growth. Technologies that help China to move closer to
carbon neutrality will also provide growth support. Even so, China’s economy will continue to
face headwinds as it battles a flagging real estate sector and inflation, coupled with geopolitical
forces such as the China-U.S. trade war and technology tensions.
China’s economic growth has been steadily declining recently.

Nath ’19, Trevir Nath (has five years of experience as a financial writer working with various
startups, financial services companies, and news publications. Trevor is an expert on business,
personal finance, and trading), “Is China's Economic Collapse Good For the U.S.?” Investopedia,
June 25, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091515/chinas-economic-
collapse-good-us.asp
For the past 30 years, China has grown at a rate of 10% per year, with annual peaks of 13%. A
large part of China’s rapid growth is owed to its 1970s economic reform. In 1978, after years of
state control of all productive assets, China started introducing market principles to stimulate its
economy. Over the following three decades, China encouraged the formation of rural enterprises
and private businesses, liberalized foreign trade and investment and invested heavily in production.
Although capital assets and accumulation have heavily influenced the nation’s growth, China also
has sustained a high level of productivity and worker efficiency, which continues to be the driving
force of its economic success. As a result, per capita income in China has quadrupled over the past
15 years. However, it seems that even China's rapid growth couldn't last forever. Over the past
five years, its growth has slowed to 7%. Still, to put this in perspective, the U.S. economy grew
3.7% in second-quarter 2015 while the IMF projects global growth at 3.1% over the course of
2015. Even having a slower rate of growth than prior years, China still outpaces a majority of
countries, including many advanced economies.
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The LD File China
The US economy is so intertwined with China’s, if their economy collapses, so might
ours.
Nath ’19, Trevir Nath (has five years of experience as a financial writer working with various
startups, financial services companies, and news publications. Trevor is an expert on business,
personal finance, and trading), “Is China's Economic Collapse Good For the U.S.?” Investopedia,
June 25, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091515/chinas-economic-
collapse-good-us.asp
While the United States and China haven't always seen eye to eye on diplomatic issues, particularly
human rights and cyber security, the two counties have built a strong economic relationship, with
significant trade, foreign direct investment and debt financing. Two-way trade between China and
the United States has grown from $33 billion in 1992 to $590 billion in 2014. After Mexico and
Canada, China is the third-largest export market for U.S. goods, accounting for $123 billion in
U.S. exports. As for imports, the U.S. imported $466 billion in Chinese goods in 2014, primarily
consisting of machinery, furniture, toys and footwear. As a result, the United States is China’s
largest export market. Alongside an extensive amount of foreign trade, China has been a popular
destination for U.S. foreign direct investments. The stock of foreign investment from the U.S. into
China exceeded $60 billion in 2013, primarily in the manufacturing sector. That being said, the
U.S. has a significant trade deficit with China due to U.S. Treasury bonds. Currently, China is one
of the largest holders of U.S. debt, amounting to $1.2 trillion. For China, Treasuries are a safe and
stable way to maintain an export-led economy and creditworthiness in the global economy. As
long as China continues to hold a massive amount of forex reserves and U.S. debt, some market
observers believe the U.S. economy could be essentially at the mercy of China.
China’s rapidly aging population risks its economy completely coming apart.
Chang ’22, Gordon G. Chang (is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and The Great U.S.-
China Tech War. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang. Chang is also a Senior Editor for
1945), “The Chinese Economy Is In A Death Spiral,” 1945, May 21, 2022,
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/the-chinese-economy-is-in-a-death-spiral/
The Chinese economy – and the nation overall – is passing a series of inflection points. The most
fundamental one is demographic: The Chinese population is on track for a steep decline. The most
immediate inflection point is economic: China is now contracting. The country needs growth to
retire monumental debt, however. We start with the “relentless maker and breaker of
civilizations,” demography. Demography will break China, which according to demographers
from Xian Jiaotong University is slated to lose half its population in 45 years. At the end of this
century, China could be about one-third as populous as it is now. The country, therefore, faces the
sharpest demographic decline in history in the absence of war or disease. Panicked efforts to avoid
the decline—moving from a one-child policy in 2015 to a three-child policy in 2021, for instance—
have proven unsuccessful in increasing birth rates Such a precipitous fall means that, if China is
going to pass America to reach the top spot, it will have to do so within, say, a decade before a
falling population begins to undermine economic performance. In the next ten years, however,
China’s economy is more likely to come apart.
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The LD File China
China’s draconian reaction to Covid has caused its economy and manufacturing to
shrink.
It is already in distress. In April, the economy clearly contracted. Industrial output was down 2.9%
from the same month last year. Retail sales were off 11.1%. New car sales plunged 47.6%.
Draconian lockdowns, the result of Beijing’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy, have essentially
brought much of the eastern portion of the country, the heart of the national economy, to a halt.
China’s ports and airports are operating at far below capacity, and river and truck traffic is way
down, about 40% off. China cannot ship what it does not produce. Factories are either closed or
struggling. Even politically favored companies have been hit hard. Tesla’s Gigafactory 3, in
Shanghai, was closed for three weeks due to the COVID lockdown. Now, because of a lack of
parts, it is running at only 45% capacity.
China is facing an economic reckoning over its massive debt.

Beijing, by ditching misguided disease-control policies, can eventually reverse the economic
damage. What it cannot do is escape the consequences of its unprecedented buildup of
indebtedness. Nobody knows how much debt China has accumulated, but an estimate of 350% of
annual gross domestic product sounds about right. Because of the infamous “hidden debt,” the
number could even be higher. However much debt there is, China is now facing a reckoning.
Beijing avoided a downturn in 2008 by overstimulating the economy, primarily with debt-financed
infrastructure. Now, the country has to either pay back the debt or resolve the situation by other
means. Many believe that because there are not many external obligations the crisis will be easy
to resolve. Yes, the Chinese people owe the money to themselves, but these types of crises, history
shows, are the most difficult ones to fix because every fix requires that domestic parties—not
foreign bankers—suffer. Beijing is trying to further delay a reckoning because it is concerned
about social stability, which means the resolution of the matter will take far longer than anyone
now thinks.
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The LD File China
China’s debt-ridden property sector is already beyond repair.
In the meantime, the debt-ridden property sector is beyond repair. Property developers, especially
starting last September, have been missing payments and defaulting on obligations. Evergrande
Group, once China’s largest property developer, accumulated a staggering $305 billion in
obligations and is struggling, even with full government backing. It has been effectively rescued
for the moment, but smaller developers are falling. Sunac China, now the fourth-largest developer,
just missed a bond payment and announced it does not expect to make other bond payments. On
the surface, the situation looks manageable. New home prices in 70 major cities in April fell only
0.2% from the previous month. The market, however, was “frozen,” in other words, buyers and
sellers were too far apart on price for transactions to occur. “We’re not seeing the price collapse
yet,” said Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research, to John Batchelor of “CBS Eye on the
World” on Wednesday. “The Chinese government has stealthily put a whole lot of money into the
developers so that they can hold their inventory off the market and keep from discounting by 30,
40, 50%.” Government intervention can maintain prices, but it cannot force sales. Property sales
by value fell 46.6% year-to-year last month, the biggest drop since August 2006. Developers are
adjusting. New construction starts as measured by floor area in April were down 44.2% from the
same month last year. As a result, the demand for construction materials is tumbling.
The Chinese economy is fast approaching a death spiral.

The renminbi, one of the world’s strongest currencies last year, is now weak, down about 7% in
the last three months. Last month was the worst ever for the Chinese currency. The Communist
Party, unwilling to implement structural reforms, is adopting last-resort measures. “The lockdowns
have something to do with keeping people from knowing about this and keeping people from
complaining about it,” said Stevenson-Yang, also author of China Alone: The Emergence from
and Potential Return to Isolation. “This is what China typically does, is keep information from
flowing around rather than actually address the problem. And they will be doing more of this as
time goes on.” Beijing is great on censoring, but the reckoning in the Chinese economy is coming
nonetheless. China is fast approaching its death spiral, the point of no-return, where fear grips
markets in a final crisis.
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The LD File China
The Chinese economy is facing at least a recession due to real estate defaults.
Rhodes & Mackintosh ’22, William Rhodes (CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors, former
chairman and CEO of Citibank, and author of ”Banker to the World: Leadership Lessons from the
Front Lines of Global Finance″) and Stuart Mackintosh (executive director of nonprofit The Group
of Thirty), “Op-ed: The four big threats to China’s economy,” CNBC, April 27, 2022,
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/op-ed-the-four-big-threats-to-chinas-economy.html
Chinese real estate defaults continue. Last year saw a record number of defaults among Chinese
developers, from Evergrande on down. S&P estimates that between 20% and 40% of property
developers may face default. Property development accounts for 25-30% of China’s economy,
according to a January report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a
nonpartisan think tank. A stumble in real estate bodes ill for the economy as a whole. Economists
have demonstrated that most recessions are either equity- or housing bust-related. Once home
prices shake, and start falling, we know the effect of debt on declines in home prices: The former
amplifies the latter and can cause a collapse in wider consumption. Underwater homeowners stop
spending as their house prices fall. China is not at that dangerous juncture yet. But the signs are
ominous. We would be naive to think that normal economic boom-bust rules never apply in China,
or to assume that Chinese authorities can always effectively control prices across the entire country
indefinitely. Yet we have to hope they can manage housing better than the West did in 2007-2008.
China’s zero-Covid policy has seriously undermined its economic growth.

As China’s housing markets shake, the effects of the pandemic policy are making economic
matters worse. China’s zero-Covid policy, by far the toughest medical and public health response
to the pandemic anywhere, is in trouble. China’s rigid stance on prevention paid huge dividends
— the country continued to operate largely free of the virus in 2020 and 2021. Today however,
as the virus mutates and spreads rapidly, those measures may be more costly. An uptick in cases
in Shanghai to about 20,000 a day last week caused the city to shut down, triggering citizens’ anger
and the quarantining of 26 million residents. Shanghai alone contributes 4% of China’s gross
domestic product and is its largest port. Lockdowns are being imposed in cities across China. The
negative economic effects of its hard-to-sustain Covid policy will become visible in the months
ahead. Already, economists are cutting growth forecasts for the country. If demand in China
weakens, everyone outside the country may feel it too. It’s unclear whether the central government
is willing or able to pivot from zero tolerance to a new approach — even though such a shift
appears increasingly necessary to outsiders.
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The LD File China
Rising global interest rates could cause many of China’s economic partners to default
on debt, further weakening the Chinese economy.
Interest rates are rising as the developed world tries to contain inflation. Many loans made by
Chinese entities as part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative are not only straining balance sheets
in low-income countries across the globe, but will also burden China’s banks with nonperforming
loans. That, in turn, will affect the economic performance of those banks, which are key conduits
for Chinese domestic investment, businesses and the economy. Belt and Road has saddled
developing states with at least $385 billion in debts, according to a 2021 report from AidData, an
international development research lab based at the College of William and Mary in Virginia.
There, China faces three negative dynamics: debt defaults, nonperforming loans on the books of
its largest banks and state lenders, and collateral damage to diplomatic and geopolitical interests if
it seizes nations’ assets as part of sometimes onerous loan terms. In 2022, China’s leadership will
learn that not all lending is smart policy. Even if the contract appears beneficial at first glance,
China needs solvent borrowers and happy customers and allies, not bilateral sleight of hand,
defaults and angry citizens.
China’s continued support of Russia could easily undermine its position globally and
thus its economy.
Globalization — the engine that powers China’s economy — risks stalling under the pressure of
the pandemic and Russia’s war with Ukraine. Supply chains are stretched and broken, or else being
reconstituted with new routes and links. China’s leaders must ask whether their political support
for a declining, weak, and unpredictable Russia is worth more to China than an interlinked world
in which all competitors agree to general rules and norms. Everyone benefits from such a global
architecture. Choosing Russia over the globalization in which their country is so deeply embedded
is a shortsighted, damaging economic bargain, one which could result in secondary sanctions on
Chinese firms, as the U.S. has warned. Russia may continue the war, diminished, shrunken, fueled
by its oil and gas, but ostracized by most countries in the world. China too may pay a heavy price
if it continues to back Russia at the expense of engagement with the trading system the country
relies on for economic growth. All those tough challenges suggest that the Chinese government’s
official forecast of a 5.5% growth rate in 2022 is too optimistic. Indeed, it now seems more likely
than not that China will grow at below 5% in 2022 — a rate not seen since the crisis of 1989 in
Tiananmen Square. Such an economic outcome would be bad news for China, and bad news for
the rest of the globe, even as we sometimes distrust one another. Let us hope the right choices are
made — choices that are globally framed rather than narrowly constructed.
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The LD File China
China is solving its air pollution issues already while planting billions of trees.
Leung ’21, Felix Leung (is a postdoctoral researcher and a scientist at the Chinese University of
Hong Kong. His research focuses on the impact of anthropogenic activities such as air pollution
and urbanisation on ecosystems and the environment. He is well-versed in ecology, environmental
biology, conservation, geography, and climate change science), “How China is Winning Its Battle
Against Air Pollution,” Earth.org, July 30, 2021, https://earth.org/how-china-is-winning-its-battle-
against-air-pollution/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwz96WBhC8ARIsAATR252RPR9N0GyRy6-
Pm_yaOfVGETiaqvTCJh4tvaz_MNVM5wE6ubkykb4aAsOEEALw_wcB
After Beijing’s ‘airpocalypse’ sparked a mass outpouring of anger and frustration among citizens,
China set out to clean up the air quality of its cities. The government prohibited new coal-fired
power plants and shut down a number of old plants in the most polluted regions including city
clusters of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Pearl and Yangtze Deltas. Large cities like Shanghai,
Shenzhen, and Guangzhou restricted the number of cars on the road and started introducing all-
electric bus fleets. The country reduced its iron-and steel-making capacity and shut down coal
mines. The government also introduced aggressive afforestation and reforestation programmes
like the Great Green Wall and planted more than 35 billion trees across 12 provinces. With
investments of over $100 billion in such programmes, China’s forestry expenditure per hectare
exceeded that of the US and Europe and became three times higher than the global average. The
Air Pollution Action Plan released in September 2013 became China’s most influential
environmental policy. It helped the nation to make significant improvements in its air quality
between 2013 and 2017, reducing PM2.5 levels (atmospheric particulate matter) by 33% in Beijing
and 15% in the Pearl River Delta. In Beijing, this meant reducing PM2.5 levels from 89.5µg/m³
(micrograms per cubic metre) down to 60. The city achieved an annual average PM2.5 level of
58µg/m³– a drop of 35%. But even so, no cities reached the World Health Organization’s
recommended annual average PM2.5 level of 10µg/m³. And as of the end of 2017, only 107 of
China’s 338 cities of prefectural level or higher had reached the WHO’s interim standard of
35µg/m³.
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The LD File China
China is already cleaning up its air faster than Western countries did after their
industrial revolution.
Leung ’21, Felix Leung (is a postdoctoral researcher and a scientist at the Chinese University of
Hong Kong. His research focuses on the impact of anthropogenic activities such as air pollution
and urbanisation on ecosystems and the environment. He is well-versed in ecology, environmental
biology, conservation, geography, and climate change science), “How China is Winning Its Battle
Against Air Pollution,” Earth.org, July 30, 2021, https://earth.org/how-china-is-winning-its-battle-
against-air-pollution/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwz96WBhC8ARIsAATR252RPR9N0GyRy6-
As part of the second phase of its battle against air pollution, in 2018, China introduced its Three-
year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky War. While the 2013 Action Plan only set PM2.5 level
targets for the city clusters of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Pearl and Yangtze Deltas, the new
three-year Action Plan applies to all the cities in China. It mandates at least an 18% reduction in
PM2.5 levels on a 2015 baseline in as many as 231 cities that have not yet reached the government
standard- an average of 35µg/m³. The previous plan had not addressed a primary pollutant that
made the air deadly in many cities: ground-level ozone- highly irritating gas created by volatile
organic compounds (VOCs) reacting with nitrogen oxides released from vehicles. Although ozone
in the upper atmosphere protects the Earth by blocking solar radiation, it is extremely toxic in the
troposphere and could cause asthma and respiratory tract infections among residents. The new
action plan focuses more on ozone pollution as it adds targets for both VOCs and nitrogen oxides:
emissions reductions of 10% and 15%, respectively, by 2020. The air quality over major Chinese
cities has improved as of the beginning of 2020, a byproduct of the Covid-19 pandemic that
originated in Wuhan in the Hubei Province that saw the nation embark on the largest lockdown
measures in the world. A drop in industrial and economic activities resulted in reduced greenhouse
gas emissions and improved air quality in Wuhan over the Chinese New Year, as well as Beijing,
Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta region. However, emissions will no doubt rise again once
the pandemic subsides. Air pollution levels in major cities in China at the turn of this century were
almost exactly at the level of London at the height of the Industrial Revolution in 1890. But China
cleaned up its air twice as fast as the United Kingdom did after the Great Smog of postwar London
killed 8 000 people. Recent research suggests that China’s fight against air pollution has laid the
foundations for extraordinary gains in the country’s life expectancy. The average citizen can now
expect to live 2.4 years longer on average if the declines in air pollution persist.
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The LD File China
China is already working to protect the environment.
Yifan & Yi ’21, Jiang Yifan (is a senior editor at China Dialogue. For many years, he has been
writing, reporting and editing on international environmental and agrarian politics. He has an
MPhil in Social Anthropology from the University of Bergen in Norway) & Shi Yi (senior
researcher with China Dialogue, also contributed to this article), “14th Five Year Plan: China’s
carbon-centred environmental blueprint,” China Dialogue, March 25, 2021,
https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/14th-five-year-plan-china-carbon-centred-environmental-
blueprint/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw8uOWBhDXARIsAOxKJ2FvAE3gKUcVAIuDIQwknvcTAUjw2-
Beijing was enveloped in heavy smog for most of this year’s crucial Two Sessions meetings of
China’s top legislators. And as the National People’s Congress was approving the outline of the
14th Five Year Plan (FYP), Huang Runqiu, minister of ecology and environment, was in Tangshan
leading unannounced inspections of steel mills. Several firms were found to be ignoring
emergency pollution-control measures, continuing to work at full capacity, and even faking
records. Information has been passed to the police for investigation. When asked about air quality
issues at last year’s ministerial press conference, Huang told reporters that targets for reducing
particulate matter PM2.5 pollution in the 13th FYP period (2015-2020) had been met and
exceeded: “The people are noticing there are more blue skies and white clouds.” Referring to the
ministry’s plans for the 14th FYP, he said there had not yet been fundamental change in China’s
industrial structure, energy mix or pollution, and so the next five years would be another, tougher,
assault on pollution. In a January interview with the People’s Daily, Huang said this would involve
improving air quality, reducing carbon emissions, protecting and restoring ecosystems, improving
aquatic environments, preventing soil pollution, and guarding against the risks of nuclear and other
hazardous wastes. Also in January, the ministry said reducing carbon emissions would be the “ring
in the bull’s nose”, used to pull other improvements along with it. That approach can be seen as a
key part of the environmental and ecological framework for the 14th FYP period. With this being
the first FYP published since China committed to carbon neutrality, climate and energy targets are
being watched particularly closely. It is clear that coordinating and synergising environmental
protection and climate action will be key.
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The LD File China
China is already working to fight climate change and reduce air, water, and soil
pollution and restoring ecosystems.
The 2015 revision of China’s Atmospheric Pollution Law was the first to propose coordinated
reduction of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. The subsequent 13th FYP included a
quantified PM2.5 target for the first time, and the next five years saw efforts to tackle air pollution
and climate change – winning wide public support for the latter, and making significant progress
on both fronts. The 13th FYP period saw PM2.5 levels in the once smog-plagued Beijing-Tianjin-
Hebei region drop by 36%. Strong action on pollution brought about huge changes in energy usage,
with coal’s proportion in the primary energy mix falling from 63.7% in 2015 to 56.8% in 2020.
That synergy will continue to be emphasised in the coming five years. However, with China having
committed to carbon neutrality, cuts in carbon emissions take the lead in this FYP, to in turn bring
about reductions in air, water and soil pollution, as well as protection and restoration of
ecosystems.
In the past China lacked the tools to protect its environment but now it has them, so it
is tackling affirmative harms.
This reflects changes taking place within the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Formed in
2018, it retained the environmental and ecological responsibilities of the former Ministry of
Environmental Protection and took on the National Development and Reform Commission’s role
of tackling climate change – bringing pollution and climate under one remit. However, the ministry
has lacked the knowledge, capacities and tools for that new role. This January, it announced it
would be addressing those problems so it could make better use of synergies between its work on
climate change, pollution and environmental protection. This was to involve including language
on climate change in the drafting and revision of environmental laws and regulations, combining
regulations across the two fields, studying climate impacts during environmental impact
assessments, and looking at climate change and peak carbon issues during central-level
environmental disciplinary inspections.
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The LD File China
China is already embracing nature-based solutions to all the affirmative harms.
Similarly, synergies between protecting and restoring ecosystems and climate change are now
being seen. The ministry has called for attention to be paid to the role nature-based solutions have
to play in responding to and mitigating climate change – that is, using the carbon sequestration
capacity and ecological services provided by forests, rivers, lakes, grasslands and even farmland.
The 14th FYP Outline calls for carbon sequestration by ecosystems to be increased. That work is
placed at the start of chapters on the ecology and the environment, the first two components of
which have to do with large-scale geographic interventions. “Improving the system of ecological
safety barriers” includes completion of ecological buffers such as the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau and
the northern forest shelterbelts; better protection and management of rivers, lakes and wetlands;
the protection of forests; land greening; tackling soil loss, desertification and rocky desertification;
and restoring grasslands, wetlands and seas. “Building a system of nature reserves” refers to the
establishment of national parks and identifying and merging a number of nature reserves and
nature parks, creating a three-tier system of natural protected areas, with national parks at the top.
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The LD File China
China is leading the world in developing methods for protecting the environment.
The implementation of these two programs reflects how China is innovating to use its spatial
planning system and ecological red lines to protect biodiversity. One joint Chinese and foreign
research team has said China is leading the world in these experiments, providing an integrated
toolkit for tackling climate change, biodiversity loss and desertification, using synergies and
avoiding conflict between differing goals. The spatial planning system started in 2010 is complex.
It sees urban, agricultural and ecological “functional zones” drawn out on the national map with
different development-intensity levels designated to them. Within the zones, ecological red lines
are used to mark out the areas most in need of the strictest protection, where no infringement is
allowed. When those lines are being drawn, agricultural, industrial and residential areas may be
avoided, or forced to relocate. This unified approach is designed to prevent conflict between the
different functions. It is estimated that when complete, ecological red lines will cover 25% of
China’s land, and over 30% of its ocean area. As those areas expand, they can cover entire
ecosystems, both protecting biodiversity and, thanks to carbon sequestration by plants, the soil and
animals, providing climate benefits. And when ecosystems are well protected, conflict between
biodiversity, environmental and climate targets – for example, the destruction of grasslands and
wetlands to increase forest coverage, or the felling of natural forests to create carbon sink forests
– can be avoided.
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The LD File China
China must balance human development and the environment.
Consequently, the third and last component of the ecological conservation work, “ecological
compensation”, becomes an essential piece of the overall picture. The ecological red lines and
reserve system will inevitably result in many people and businesses having to move, along with
restrictions on further development – and compensation for this should be paid. The 14th FYP
Outline proposes raising the huge funds necessary by increasing the transfer payments paid by
central government, creating a market-based system of ecological compensation with private
capital participating, as well as establishing a system for realising the value of ecological products,
which will see the market price and pay for ecological protection and restoration. But discussions
will continue on whether or not people should have a place in natural reserves. The 14th FYP
Outline calls for strict controls on “non-ecological” activities within them, with an orderly removal
of residents, agricultural and mining from core areas. Dr Peng Kui, a project officer with the Global
Environment Institute, told China Dialogue that in his studies of trials of national parks in the
Three Rivers Source area of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and the Qilian mountains, he found that the
core areas were largely pastures for herders, and their removal would incur heavy economic and
social costs. “The loss of appropriate human intervention, of fertilisation by livestock, of
management, means that removal of residents may actually harm the grasslands. Environmentally
friendly businesses should be able to remain.” He also pointed out that excluding all people from
the core areas of national parks would mean the loss of their scenic and educational value.
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The LD File China
Negating allows for both economic development and environmental protection.
Agriculture and conservation can work together, said Min Qingwen, a member of the National
People’s Political Consultative Congress and a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Sciences’
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research who works on agricultural
heritage. “National parks and reserves should respect traditional forms of agriculture and ethnic
cultures, in order to protect the environment, develop the economy and pass on culture. This is
entirely possible.” Min also thinks the national parks should take Chinese circumstances into
account – and population pressure on land is still a fact of life for the country. Peng Kui told China
Dialogue that the vast size of national parks means they take in different legal types of land and
require the relocation of residents and businesses, meaning various laws including land and civil
laws are involved. This makes legislation hugely complicated and progress has been slower than
hoped. The National Parks Law was originally due to be released last year, but is still tied up in
internal consultations. He revealed there could be some time to wait before the first national parks
are established officially, as the trials have resulted in a consensus that legislation must come first,
not retrospectively. Relocations are also an issue for changes in China’s spatial planning. The
14th FYP Outline expresses support for gradual and orderly resettlement into cities of people
currently living in ecological functional zones, but Min says this will be easier said than done and
will require cross-departmental cooperation and ongoing research.
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The LD File China
China is using its BRI to emphasize environmental protection abroad.
Spatial planning and ecological redlines are an important pillar of China’s ecological civilization.
The joint Chinese and foreign research team mentioned above suggested China exports the concept
of “ecological redline” to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) nations, to enable “governments to better
site infrastructure investments and manage trade-offs between economic, social and environmental
objectives”. Peng Kui, who researches and works on environmental protection in Southeast Asia,
said he hopes the COP15 UN biodiversity conference, to be held this year in Kunming, will see
the start of that trend. He hopes the government will create mechanisms to support research
institutions and NGOs in sharing China’s experiences in biodiversity research and setting and
implementing redlines overseas, in a form of “civil diplomacy” that would form an extra pillar of
the BRI. This also fits in with the BRI as described in the 14th FYP Outline: “green, open and
honest”, and will boost cooperation with other countries on tackling climate change, ocean
governance, wildlife conservation and desertification prevention; cultural and educational
exchange on environmental topics; and the creation of a “Green Silk Road”.
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The LD File China
China is working to stop overfishing.
The section on the ocean provides another look at how China’s environmental ideas are being
extended overseas. “Harmony between humanity and the ocean, win-win cooperation, and
pushing forward with conservation of ocean ecologies,” are mentioned in the section introduction.
This compares with the 13th FYP, where the language focused on developing the ocean economy
and ocean resources. One notable change in this year’s document is the call for “sustainable
distant-water fishing” – the word “sustainable” was missing five years ago. The first mention of
the development of distant-water fishing (DWF) was in 2011’s 12th FYP, and the country’s DWF
capacity has increased rapidly ever since, now far outstripping any other country. China’s DWF
fleet operates in the waters of 40 countries and regions, and on the high seas of the Pacific, Indian
and Atlantic oceans, as well as in Antarctic waters. Illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU)
fishing by Chinese vessels has become a matter of international concern. Last year, China
announced its first self-imposed moratorium on some high seas fishing, but how China will make
this sector “sustainable” next is anyone’s guess. A 14th FYP document specific to the fishing
industry, currently being drafted, will provide more answers.
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The LD File China
China is working to protect the oceans and the Arctic.
When it comes to international relations, there has been a shift from “protecting [China’s] ocean
rights” in the 13th FYP to a more active “in-depth participation in global ocean governance”,
promoting the establishment of a “fair and reasonable international ocean regime” and the
development of “blue partnerships” and an “ocean community with a shared future.” According
to Liu Nengye, director of the Centre for Environmental Law at Macquarie University, “China
used to focus on cooperation with littoral states, but as its capabilities in ocean industries such as
ship-making and distant-water fishing have expanded, it has acquired the ability and experience to
participate in the setting of international rules. The change in language could be seen as an
intensification of the ‘marine world power’ strategy.” On polar governance, the 14th FYP Outline
also proposes an “Ice Silk Road” shipping route in the Arctic, alongside increasing capacities to
participate in governance and utilisation of the Antarctic. In 2017, China hosted Antarctic Treaty
talks for the first time, and in 2018 published a white paper on the Arctic, which Liu regards as
landmarks for China’s involvement in polar governance. He says that while there are international
calls for protection of the poles, and in particular the Antarctic, China stresses a balance between
protection and utilisation, and he sees the language in the 14th FYP Outline as a steady
continuation of China’s polar policy.
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The LD File China
Blocks
Affirmative Blocks
Affirmative Answer To (A/T) common negative arguments
A/T The Chinese economy is on the brink of collapse.

1. The Chinese economy is on the rebound post-Covid.
Bloomberg News ’22, Bloomberg News (Bloomberg News is an international news agency headquartered in New York City
and a division of Bloomberg L.P.), “China’s Economy Improves in June From Lockdown-Induced Slump,” Bloomberg, June 26, 2022,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-26/china-s-economy-improves-in-june-from-lockdown-induced-slump
Fall in Covid cases and end of lockdown boosts the economy. Economic activity picked
up in June after financial hub Shanghai lifted its lockdown, allowing businesses to restart and most residents
to leave their homes. That can be seen in a rebound in small business confidence, which started
growing again after contracting for two months. A survey of more than 500 smaller firms showed that
“demand and production recovered strongly among manufacturing,” and export-oriented
smaller firms outperformed, according to Hunter Chan and Ding Shuang, economists at Standard Chartered Plc. However,
“the manufacturing recovery was more significant than services,” they said. Contact-intensive industries such as retail and catering
real estate, transport and information technology reported an
continued to be a drag, while
acceleration in activity and construction jumped. It will take more than a few months of strong growth to undo
the damage caused to companies by the lockdowns over the past few months. The profits of private and foreign firms fell in the first
five months of the year, while those of state-owned companies rose almost 10%.
2. There are multiple indicators of a Chinese economic recovery.
Bloomberg News ’22, Bloomberg News (Bloomberg News is an international news agency headquartered in New York City
and a division of Bloomberg L.P.), “China’s Economy Improves in June From Lockdown-Induced Slump,” Bloomberg, June 26, 2022,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-26/china-s-economy-improves-in-june-from-lockdown-induced-slump
Bloomberg Economics generates the overall activity reading by aggregating a three-month

weighted average of the monthly changes of eight indicators, which are based on business surveys or
market prices. Major onshore stocks - CSI 300 index of A-share stocks listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen (through market close
on 25th of the month). Total floor area of home sales in China’s four Tier-1 cities (Beijing, Shanghai,
Guangzhou and Shenzhen). Inventory of steel rebar, used for reinforcing in construction (in 10,000 metric tons). Falling
inventory is a sign of rising demand. Copper prices - Spot price for refined copper in Shanghai market (yuan/metric ton).
South Korean exports - South Korean exports in the first 20 days of each month (year-on-year change). Factory
inflation tracker - Bloomberg Economics-created tracker for Chinese producer prices (year-on-year change). Small and
medium-sized business confidence - Survey of companies conducted by Standard Chartered. Passenger car
sales - Monthly result calculated from the weekly average sales data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
3. The Chinese economy is predicted to grow rapidly in the coming months.
Sheng ’22, Wen Sheng (an editor with the Global Times), “China’s economy anticipated to maintain significant growth in 2022,
2023,” July 27, 2022, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271555.shtml
Inspiring news has recently arrived for Chinese policy-makers. Industrial production
growth rebounded to 4 percent year-on-year rise in June, from -2.9 percent drop in April and 0.7 percent
growth in May. The growth rate for July and August is expected to surpass 6.5 percent. Also, fixed-asset investment saw 5.8 percent
year-on-year growth in June, led by a strong recovery in investment on expressways, high-speed railroads, bridges, subways, ports,
reservoirs and other infrastructure projects. Most economists anticipate that the Chinese economy will keep
on improving in the third and fourth quarter by up to 6 percent growth, provided the government's incremental
stimulus policy buttresses broad domestic consumption, and particularly, propel urban real estate sector growth. Megacities like Beijing,
Shanghai, Guangzhou Shenzhen, Chongqing, Suzhou and Hangzhou should keep their high alert to avert widespread virus infections
The country's central bank is expected to maintain a relatively loose
and city-wide lockdowns.
monetary policy till the end of 2022, making no changes to the benchmark Loan Prime Rate (LPR) or the reserve
requirement ratio (RRR) in the coming many months, although other central banks are under pressure to raise rates to curb runaway
inflation.
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The LD File China
A/T China is already working to clean its air pollution.
1. Air pollution is growing worse in China as it reopens after Covid.
There is a Chinese saying, “misfortune is a blessing in disguises.” Being the first country to be hit by the COVID-19 outbreak, China is
also among the first economies that are recovering rapidly from the outbreak. Beating pessimistic forecast, Beijing expanded its economy
by 2.3 percent in 2020, making it the only major economy registering positive growth last year. What is also rebounding
is its air pollution level. According to Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
(CREA), by early May levels of concentration of air pollutants – PM2.5, NO2, SO2 and
ozone – all returned to or exceeding the monthly levels recorded the previous year. In October,
PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the China-equivalent to Germany’s densely packed Ruhr region, saw an
increase of 15.6 percent over the same month last year, raising concerns that the region risks falling short of its winter pollution control
targets. To the extent that the coronavirus lockdown reduced traffic and economic activities, it is no surprise that China saw the rebound
of emissions from power plants, industry and transport as the lockdown was lifted and economic activity and industrial production
the return to air pollution in China threatens to reverse past gains of pollution
resumed. But
control in the world’s largest emitter. Prior to the outbreak, the improvement in air quality achieved by sweeping air
quality control measures was already being offset by the rapid increase in the production and consumption of steel and coal since 2017.
According to an analysis of PM2.5 data in 15 major Chinese cities, conducted by an Asia-
based social enterprise Smart Air, PM2.5 concentration level increased in more than half
of the cities in 2019.
2. Chinese pollution and internal challenges from pollution threaten the rest of the
world.
But the impact of air pollution is not going to be confined within China’s borders. Research
suggested that air pollution from China contributes to up to 65 percent of the ozone increase
in the Western United States. A Pew survey in March 2020 reveals that China’s impact on the global
environment tops Americans’ list of concerns toward China. China’s failure to tackle such
internal challenges may also prompt the state to act more aggressively on the foreign policy
front to deflect domestic criticism in an attempt to shore up its political legitimacy. The
end result could be a faltering China that is perhaps more dangerous than a rising one.
3. The air quality in China is still unhealthy and affects neighboring countries.
The US Department of State ’17-’21, The US Department of State, “China’s Environmental Abuses,” 2017-2021,
https://2017-2021.state.gov/chinas-environmental-abuses/index.html
In 2008, U.S. diplomats installed air quality monitors on top of U.S. Embassy Beijing. The
United States shared the data publicly and revealed what local residents already knew: Beijing’s air quality was
dangerously worse than the Chinese government was willing to admit. That small act of transparency helped catalyze a revolution in
air quality management, and Beijing has since made air quality a priority, including establishing new ambient air quality standards.
Despite significant improvements in large cities, the overall level of air pollution in China
remains unhealthy, and air pollution from China continues to affect downwind countries.
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The LD File China
A/T China is already working to solve desertification.
1. Parts of China are at risk of becoming uninhabitable.
Another huge issue affecting food security in China is desertification, a process by which natural and human causes reduce the biological
Research shows that 27.4% of the country has undergone desertification,
productivity of drylands.
affecting about 400 million people. The entirety of China’s agricultural production comes
from just 7% of its land area, most of which is located in northern areas that are severely
affected by land degradation. This phenomenon threatens to leave much of these regions
uninhabitable by degrading soil content, increasing rates of erosion, limiting natural
vegetation, and almost entirely eliminating the possibility of agricultural production. One
of the government’s main strategies to combat desertification is the Great Green Wall of
China, a project that involves the planting of around 88 million acres of forests stretching about 3,000 miles (4,828 kilometres) and
as wide as 900 miles (1,448 kilometres). The results have so far been satisfactory: thousands of acres of moving dunes have been
experts are more
stabilised and the frequency of sandstorms nationwide fell by one-fifth between 2009 and 2014. However, some
sceptical. Jennifer L. Turner – director of the China Environment Forum at DC-based
Woodrow Wilson Center – says, “with the Great Green Wall, people are planting lots of
trees in big ceremonies to stem desertification, but then later no one really takes care of
them and they die.”
2. China is facing many environmental challenges due to its carbon intensive industries.
Air pollution. Increased public awareness of China’s notoriously low air quality in the past decade—especially after Beijing suffered a
prolonged bout of smog in 2013 that was so severe that citizens dubbed it an “airpocalypse”—has sparked government action. A plan
released later in 2013 ordered cities to lower concentrations of tiny hazardous particles known as PM2.5 and directed local governments
to implement tougher controls on pollution and coal use. As a result, much of China has seen a significant drop in air pollution. But
many regions continue to experience stretches of extreme pollution, and hundreds of mostly northern cities still suffer from high levels
of PM2.5. Water insecurity. China is home to about 20 percent of the world’s population but only 7 percent of its freshwater sources.
Overuse has led to severe shortages, and industry along China’s major water sources has polluted supplies. Construction of hydropower
dams along major rivers has also damaged ecosystems. The government released a plan in 2015 for preventing water pollution that
included placing controls on polluting industries. The quality of surface waters—bodies such as lakes, rivers, and streams—has since
improved. However, groundwater continues to fall short of targets, with more than 80 percent categorized as “bad to very bad.”
More than one-quarter of China’s arable land is becoming desert due to the
Desertification.
water crisis, negligent farming practices, overgrazing, and the effects of climate change.
The government has responded by planting billions of trees, among other measures to
increase vegetation. Desertified land is now shrinking on average by nearly one thousand
square miles each year, according to government figures. Soil pollution. The government estimated in
2014 that nearly one-fifth of arable land is contaminated. This has consequences for China’s food security: An estimated 12 million tons
of the 664 million tons of grain produced annually are polluted by heavy metals. Chemical factories and other industrial sites are mainly
to blame, but trash, electronic waste, rare-earth-metal mining, overuse of pesticides, and contaminated water also contribute. In 2019,
China’s first comprehensive law to prevent soil pollution took effect, requiring polluters to limit their output or pay for contamination.
Two years later, China banned the import of all waste from other countries. Nuclear waste. China has not suffered a nuclear accident
in its three decades of operating nuclear power plants, but some experts are concerned [PDF] that the risk will rise as the country ramps
up new construction and as existing plants age.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
A/T China is reducing it fossil fuel use.
1. China is the top emitter of greenhouse gases and is doubling down on fossil fuel use. .
China’s economic rise—national gross domestic product (GDP) grew 10 percent on average each year for more than a decade—has
greatly accelerated its emissions. In the past ten years, China has emitted more greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane,
and nitrous oxide, per year than any other country in the world. It surpassed the United States as the top emitter in 2005, according to
Coal, which makes up
Climate Watch. (Emissions per capita in the United States are still more than double those in China.)
nearly two-thirds of China’s energy consumption, is largely to blame. The country is the
world’s largest coal producer and accounts for about half of coal consumed globally. The
government banned the construction of new coal-fired power plants in 2016, and coal use appeared to decline. However, when the ban
expired in 2018, construction of new plants ramped up again. In 2020, China built over three
times more [PDF] new coal-power capacity than the rest of the world combined, according to Global Energy Monitor and the
Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. China’s staggering pace of urbanization has also contributed. Urbanization increases
energy demands to power new manufacturing and industrial centers, and construction of these centers relies on high energy–consuming
Another contributor is the increase in cars on the road: In 2018,
products such as cement and steel.
people in China owned 240 million vehicles, up from about 27 million in 2004.
Internationally, China is the largest financier of fossil fuel infrastructure. Through its
massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has built or is planning to build hundreds of
coal-fired power plants in countries around the world. More than 60 percent of BRI-specific energy financing
has gone toward nonrenewable resources. Greenhouse gas emissions in more than a dozen BRI countries have soared. Researchers
found in 2019 that BRI could drive the global average temperature to increase by 2.7°C,
significantly higher than the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to
1.5°C.
2. The Chinese Communist Party hides behind developing nation status to continue to
China’s energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are rising. It has

Despite claims of international environmental leadership,
been the world’s largest annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter since 2006. China’s total
energy-related emissions are twice that of the United States and nearly one third of all
emissions globally. Beijing’s energy-related emissions increased more than 80 percent
between 2005-2019 , while U.S. energy-related emissions have decreased by more than 15
percent. In 2019 alone, China’s energy-related CO2 emissions increased more than 3
percent, while the United States’ decreased by 2 percent. Beijing claims “developing-country” status to
avoid shouldering more responsibility for reducing GHG emissions–though its per capita CO2 emissions have already reached the level
China’s increasing emissions counteract the progress of many other
of many high-income countries.
countries around the world to reduce global emissions.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
A/T Chinese leaders are committed to fighting climate change.
1. China is insufficiently committed to reducing emissions.
President Xi Jinping has recognized climate change as one of his administration’s top
concerns, and Beijing has made a variety of pledges to address it. These include: achieving
carbon neutrality by 2060; reaching peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030; having
renewable energy sources account for 25 percent of total energy consumption by 2030;
reducing carbon intensity, or the amount of carbon emitted per unit of GDP, by more than 65 percent by 2030; installing enough solar
and wind power generators to have a combined capacity of 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030; and, boosting forest coverage by around six
However, experts say many of these goals aren’t ambitious enough
billion cubic meters by 2030.
and point out that they don’t align with each other or with the Paris Agreement. For
example, China would need to reach peak emissions by 2025 at the latest to be in line with
the Paris accord’s goal. Transitioning from coal to renewable energy is critical to China’s efforts, and the country has
already made some progress. In 2019, renewables accounted for nearly 15 percent of China’s energy mix, compared to 7 percent a
decade earlier. China has used hydropower for years, and it is installing more solar panels and wind power generators as the world’s
leading manufacturer of those technologies. It is also boosting its nuclear power capacity, with seventeen reactors under construction as
of mid-2021. Moreover, Beijing and some provinces are incentivizing electric vehicle use. In 2020, 1.37 million so-called new energy
vehicles—which include battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles—were sold in China, a nearly 11 percent
increase from the previous year. Still, experts point out that the vast majority of electricity for such vehicles is produced with fossil
fuels.
2. China’s BRI efforts undermine the global fight against climate change.
China is working to launch a national emissions trading

Like the European Union and several other countries,
scheme, which would force polluters to pay for environmental harm and thus incentivize
them to reduce their emissions. It would initially focus on coal- and gas-fired power plants.
However, the rollout has been delayed since the scheme was first announced in 2017, and
many details remain unclear. Even if China reaches its domestic goals, its financing of
nonrenewable energy projects abroad through BRI could make it “much harder for the
planet to curb climate change,” says American University’s Judith Shapiro, coauthor of the book China Goes Green:
Coercive Environmentalism for a Troubled Planet. Beijing has attempted to make BRI more environmentally sustainable by announcing
environmental standards, but so far these have only been voluntary.
3. The Chinese Communist Party hides behind developing nation status to continue to
China’s energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are rising. It has

Despite claims of international environmental leadership,
been the world’s largest annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter since 2006. China’s total
energy-related emissions are twice that of the United States and nearly one third of all
emissions globally. Beijing’s energy-related emissions increased more than 80 percent
between 2005-2019 , while U.S. energy-related emissions have decreased by more than 15
percent. In 2019 alone, China’s energy-related CO2 emissions increased more than 3
percent, while the United States’ decreased by 2 percent. Beijing claims “developing-country” status to
avoid shouldering more responsibility for reducing GHG emissions–though its per capita CO2 emissions have already reached the level
China’s increasing emissions counteract the progress of many other
of many high-income countries.
countries around the world to reduce global emissions.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
A/T Affirming will crush the Chinese economy.
1. Affirming is actually better for the Chinese economy than is negating.
The new report puts forward 15 priority transitions in three priority socioeconomic systems
that can unlock USD1.9 trillion in annual business value and create 88 million jobs in China
by 2030. Food, land and ocean use: Shift the way we produce and consume. Six pathways
across this system can create almost $596.1 billion of additional annual revenue while
creating over 34 million new jobs by 2030. For example, 27% of China’s land has been
impacted by desertification, with only a third of the total arable land area being high
yielding. This extreme nature risk also offers great opportunities for putting in place
regenerative practices and the right business models. In the Ulaanbuwa Desert, China’s leading organic dairy
company, Shengmu, invested more than USD 110 million in the past 10 years to transform the desert into grazing land for its organic
milk production. 90 million trees of various types have been planted in the Ulaanbuwa Desert, greening more than 200 square kilometres
of the desert.
2. China could grow by greening its cities and transportation systems.
It is estimated that 75% of the Chinese population will be living in cities by 2030, up from
63.9% in 2020. As China makes progress in socioeconomic development and urbanization,
new nature positive business opportunities will emerge, presenting USD 590 billion of additional business
value while creating 30 million new jobs by 2030. The Foshan Nanhai Solid Waste Treatment Industrial
Park is an example of leveraging innovative technology and circular business model to address the
increasing challenge of urban solid waste in China. Today, urban solid waste amounts to almost 10 billion
tons every year and is still growing at 8% annually. With a total area of 30.7 hectares, the Nanhai industrial park built a comprehensive
sustainable waste treatment system including sludge drying, waste incineration and facilities to handle 26 major types of hazardous
For example, electricity
waste. Among the different treatment plants, resources are recycled and utilised synergistically.
generated from waste incineration is used to power the entire park, and the excess heat
from incineration steam is used for sludge drying.
3. China can restore nature in its country while decarbonizing its economy.
By 2030, the report estimates a total of USD 586 billion of additional business
opportunities and 18 million new jobs by 2030 in nature positive transition in the energy
and extractive sector. A crucial strategy to achieving the “Dual Carbon Goals”, for
example, is the electrification of vehicle fleets, which leads to increased demand for
batteries. As the energy transition accelerates and demands for certain metals grows, pressure from the energy and extractive
industry will increase, too. To address the potential environmental downside, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
encouraged car manufacturers to take responsibility for the process of recycling batteries from end-of-life electric vehicles in 2018. As
Geely Automobile, one of China’s major independent car brands, funded a joint
a result,
venture dedicated to maximizing the recycling opportunity for waste lithium batteries. In
2019, Geely Automobile's average recycling rate of materials from end-of-life cars was at
96.8%. Through this, they were demonstrating the potential for the green manufacturing of
car batteries and other autoresources to generate new business opportunities in China and beyond.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
Negative Blocks
Negative Answers To (A/T) common affirmative arguments
A/T China must fix its air pollution problem.

1. China is solving its air pollution issues already while planting billions of trees.
Leung ’21, Felix Leung (is a postdoctoral researcher and a scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. His research focuses
on the impact of anthropogenic activities such as air pollution and urbanisation on ecosystems and the environment. He is well-versed
in ecology, environmental biology, conservation, geography, and climate change science), “How China is Winning Its Battle Against
Air Pollution,” Earth.org, July 30, 2021, https://earth.org/how-china-is-winning-its-battle-against-air-
pollution/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwz96WBhC8ARIsAATR252RPR9N0GyRy6-
China set out to clean up

After Beijing’s ‘airpocalypse’ sparked a mass outpouring of anger and frustration among citizens,
the air quality of its cities. The government prohibited new coal-fired power plants and
shut down a number of old plants in the most polluted regions including city clusters of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the
Pearl and Yangtze Deltas. Large cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou restricted the number of cars on
the road and started introducing all-electric bus fleets. The country reduced its iron-and steel-making capacity
and shut down coal mines. The government also introduced aggressive afforestation and
reforestation programmes like the Great Green Wall and planted more than 35 billion trees across 12 provinces. With
investments of over $100 billion in such programmes, China’s forestry expenditure per hectare exceeded that
of the US and Europe and became three times higher than the global average. The Air Pollution
Action Plan released in September 2013 became China’s most influential environmental policy. It helped the nation to
make significant improvements in its air quality between 2013 and 2017, reducing PM2.5
levels (atmospheric particulate matter) by 33% in Beijing and 15% in the Pearl River Delta.
In Beijing, this meant reducing PM2.5 levels from 89.5µg/m³ (micrograms per cubic metre) down to 60. The city achieved an annual
average PM2.5 level of 58µg/m³– a drop of 35%. But even so, no cities reached the World Health Organization’s recommended annual
average PM2.5 level of 10µg/m³. And as of the end of 2017, only 107 of China’s 338 cities of prefectural level or higher had reached
the WHO’s interim standard of 35µg/m³.
2. China is already cleaning up its air faster than Western countries did after their
industrial revolution.
Leung ’21, Felix Leung (is a postdoctoral researcher and a scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. His research focuses
on the impact of anthropogenic activities such as air pollution and urbanisation on ecosystems and the environment. He is well-versed
in ecology, environmental biology, conservation, geography, and climate change science), “How China is Winning Its Battle Against
Air Pollution,” Earth.org, July 30, 2021, https://earth.org/how-china-is-winning-its-battle-against-air-
pollution/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwz96WBhC8ARIsAATR252RPR9N0GyRy6-
As part of the second phase of its battle against air pollution, in 2018, China introduced its Three-year Action Plan for Winning the Blue
Sky War. While the 2013 Action Plan only set PM2.5 level targets for the city clusters of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Pearl and
Yangtze Deltas, the new three-year Action Plan applies to all the cities in China. It mandates at least an 18% reduction in PM2.5 levels
on a 2015 baseline in as many as 231 cities that have not yet reached the government standard- an average of 35µg/m³. The previous
plan had not addressed a primary pollutant that made the air deadly in many cities: ground-level ozone- highly irritating gas created by
volatile organic compounds (VOCs) reacting with nitrogen oxides released from vehicles. Although ozone in the upper atmosphere
protects the Earth by blocking solar radiation, it is extremely toxic in the troposphere and could cause asthma and respiratory tract
infections among residents. The new action plan focuses more on ozone pollution as it adds targets for both VOCs and nitrogen oxides:
The air quality over major Chinese cities has
emissions reductions of 10% and 15%, respectively, by 2020.
improved as of the beginning of 2020, a byproduct of the Covid-19 pandemic that originated in Wuhan in the Hubei
Province that saw the nation embark on the largest lockdown measures in the world. A drop in industrial and economic activities resulted
in reduced greenhouse gas emissions and improved air quality in Wuhan over the Chinese New Year, as well as Beijing, Shanghai and
Air pollution levels
the Yangtze River Delta region. However, emissions will no doubt rise again once the pandemic subsides.
in major cities in China at the turn of this century were almost exactly at the level of London
at the height of the Industrial Revolution in 1890. But China cleaned up its air twice as fast
as the United Kingdom did after the Great Smog of postwar London killed 8 000 people.
Recent research suggests that China’s fight against air pollution has laid the foundations
for extraordinary gains in the country’s life expectancy. The average citizen can now expect to live 2.4 years
longer on average if the declines in air pollution persist.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
A/T China is insufficiently committed to fighting climate change.
1. China is already working to protect the environment.
Beijing was enveloped in heavy smog for most of this year’s crucial Two Sessions meetings of China’s top legislators. And as the
National People’s Congress was approving the outline of the 14th Five Year Plan (FYP), Huang Runqiu, minister of ecology and
environment, was in Tangshan leading unannounced inspections of steel mills. Several firms were found to be ignoring emergency
pollution-control measures, continuing to work at full capacity, and even faking records. Information has been passed to the police for
investigation. When asked about air quality issues at last year’s ministerial press conference, Huang told reporters that targets for
reducing particulate matter PM2.5 pollution in the 13th FYP period (2015-2020) had been met and exceeded: “The people are noticing
there are more blue skies and white clouds.” Referring to the ministry’s plans for the 14th FYP, he said there had not yet been
fundamental change in China’s industrial structure, energy mix or pollution, and so the next five years would be another, tougher, assault
on pollution. In a January interview with the People’s Daily, Huang said this would involve improving air quality, reducing carbon
emissions, protecting and restoring ecosystems, improving aquatic environments, preventing soil pollution, and guarding against the
in January, the ministry said reducing carbon emissions
risks of nuclear and other hazardous wastes. Also
would be the “ring in the bull’s nose”, used to pull other improvements along with it. That
approach can be seen as a key part of the environmental and ecological framework for the 14th
FYP period. With this being the first FYP published since China committed to carbon neutrality, climate and
energy targets are being watched particularly closely. It is clear that coordinating and
synergising environmental protection and climate action will be key.
2. China is already working to fight climate change and reduce air, water, and soil
pollution and restoring ecosystems.
The 2015 revision of China’s Atmospheric Pollution Law was the first to propose coordinated reduction of pollution and greenhouse
gas emissions. The subsequent 13th FYP included a quantified PM2.5 target for the first time, and the next five years saw efforts to
tackle air pollution and climate change – winning wide public support for the latter, and making significant progress on both fronts. The
Strong action on
13th FYP period saw PM2.5 levels in the once smog-plagued Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region drop by 36%.
pollution brought about huge changes in energy usage, with coal’s proportion in the
primary energy mix falling from 63.7% in 2015 to 56.8% in 2020. That synergy will
continue to be emphasised in the coming five years. However, with China having
committed to carbon neutrality, cuts in carbon emissions take the lead in this FYP, to in
turn bring about reductions in air, water and soil pollution, as well as protection and
restoration of ecosystems.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
A/T China’s environment is in dire straits.
1. In the past China lacked the tools to protect its environment but now it has them, so it is
tackling affirmative harms.
Yifan & Yi ’21, Jiang Yifan (is a senior editor at China Dialogue. For many years, he has been writing, reporting and editing on international
environmental and agrarian politics. He has an MPhil in Social Anthropology from the University of Bergen in Norway) & Shi Yi (senior researcher with
China Dialogue, also contributed to this article), “14th Five Year Plan: China’s carbon-centred environmental blueprint,” China Dialogue, March 25, 2021,
blueprint/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw8uOWBhDXARIsAOxKJ2FvAE3gKUcVAIuDIQwknvcTAUjw2-x3kekBzuuTirMKQzqlM5i8N9MaAmDREALw_wcB
within the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Formed in 2018, it retained

This reflects changes taking place
the environmental and ecological responsibilities of the former Ministry of Environmental Protection and took on the National
Development and Reform Commission’s role of tackling climate change – bringing pollution and climate under one remit. However, the
ministry has lacked the knowledge, capacities and tools for that new role. This January, it
announced it would be addressing those problems so it could make better use of synergies between
its work on climate change, pollution and environmental protection. This was to involve including
language on climate change in the drafting and revision of environmental laws and regulations, combining regulations across the two
fields, studying climate impacts during environmental impact assessments, and looking at climate
change and peak carbon issues during central-level environmental disciplinary inspections.
2. China is already embracing nature-based solutions to all the affirmative harms.
Similarly, synergies between protecting and restoring ecosystems and climate change are now being seen. The ministry has called for attention to be paid
to the role nature-based solutions have to play in responding to and mitigating climate change – that is, using the carbon sequestration capacity and ecological
services provided by forests, rivers, lakes, grasslands and even farmland. The 14th FYP Outline calls for carbon sequestration
by ecosystems to be increased. That work is placed at the start of chapters on the ecology and the environment, the first two components
of which have to do with large-scale geographic interventions. “Improving the system of ecological safety barriers” includes completion of ecological
the northern forest shelterbelts; better protection and management
buffers such as the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau and
of rivers, lakes and wetlands; the protection of forests; land greening; tackling soil loss,
desertification and rocky desertification; and restoring grasslands, wetlands and seas. “Building a system
of nature reserves” refers to the establishment of national parks and identifying and merging a number of nature reserves and nature parks, creating a three-
tier system of natural protected areas, with national parks at the top.
3. China is leading the world in developing methods for protecting the environment.
The implementation of these two programs reflects how China is innovating to use its spatial planning system and ecological red lines to protect biodiversity.
China is leading the world in these experiments, providing an
One joint Chinese and foreign research team has said
integrated toolkit for tackling climate change, biodiversity loss and desertification, using synergies
and avoiding conflict between differing goals. The spatial planning system started in 2010 is complex. It sees urban,
agricultural and ecological “functional zones” drawn out on the national map with different
development-intensity levels designated to them. Within the zones, ecological red lines are used to mark out the areas most in
need of the strictest protection, where no infringement is allowed. When those lines are being drawn, agricultural, industrial and residential areas may be
avoided, or forced to relocate. This unified approach is designed to prevent conflict between the different functions. It is estimated that when complete,
both
ecological red lines will cover 25% of China’s land, and over 30% of its ocean area. As those areas expand, they can cover entire ecosystems,
protecting biodiversity and, thanks to carbon sequestration by plants, the soil and animals,
providing climate benefits. And when ecosystems are well protected, conflict between biodiversity,
environmental and climate targets – for example, the destruction of grasslands and wetlands to
increase forest coverage, or the felling of natural forests to create carbon sink forests – can be
avoided.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
A/T Negating means China ignores its environmental issues.
1. China must balance human development and the environment.
Consequently, the third and last component of the ecological conservation work, “ecological compensation”, becomes an essential piece of the overall
The ecological red lines and reserve system will inevitably result in many people and
picture.
businesses having to move, along with restrictions on further development – and compensation for this should be paid.
The 14th FYP Outline proposes raising the huge funds necessary by increasing the transfer payments paid by central government, creating a market-based system of ecological
compensation with private capital participating, as well as establishing a system for realising the value of ecological products, which will see the market price and pay for ecological
discussions will continue on whether or not people should have a place in natural
protection and restoration. But
reserves. The 14th FYP Outline calls for strict controls on “non-ecological” activities within them,
with an orderly removal of residents, agricultural and mining from core areas. Dr Peng Kui, a project officer with
the Global Environment Institute, told China Dialogue that in his studies of trials of national parks in the Three Rivers Source area of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and the Qilian
“The loss of appropriate
mountains, he found that the core areas were largely pastures for herders, and their removal would incur heavy economic and social costs.
human intervention, of fertilisation by livestock, of management, means that removal of residents

may actually harm the grasslands. Environmentally friendly businesses should be able to remain.”
He also pointed out that excluding all people from the core areas of national parks would mean the loss of their scenic and educational value.
2. Negating allows for both economic development and environmental protection.
Agriculture and conservation can work together, said Min Qingwen, a member of the National People’s Political Consultative Congress and
a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research who works on agricultural heritage. “National
parks and reserves should respect traditional forms of agriculture and ethnic cultures, in order to protect the
environment, develop the economy and pass on culture. This is entirely possible.” Min also thinks the national parks should take Chinese circumstances
into account – and population pressure on land is still a fact of life for the country. Peng Kui told China Dialogue that the
vast size of national parks means they take in different legal types of land and require the relocation of residents and businesses, meaning various laws including land and civil laws
are involved. This makes legislation hugely complicated and progress has been slower than hoped. The National Parks Law was originally due to be released last year, but is still
tied up in internal consultations. He revealed there could be some time to wait before the first national parks are established officially, as the trials have resulted in a consensus that
Relocations are also an issue for changes in China’s spatial planning.
legislation must come first, not retrospectively.
The 14th FYP Outline expresses support for gradual and orderly resettlement into cities of people
currently living in ecological functional zones, but Min says this will be easier said than done and will require cross-departmental
cooperation and ongoing research.
3. China is leading the world in developing methods for protecting the environment that
balances economic interests.
The implementation of these two programs reflects how China is innovating to use its spatial planning system and ecological red lines to protect biodiversity.
China is leading the world in these experiments, providing an
One joint Chinese and foreign research team has said
integrated toolkit for tackling climate change, biodiversity loss and desertification, using synergies
and avoiding conflict between differing goals. The spatial planning system started in 2010 is complex. It sees urban,
agricultural and ecological “functional zones” drawn out on the national map with different
development-intensity levels designated to them. Within the zones, ecological red lines are used to mark out the areas most in
need of the strictest protection, where no infringement is allowed. When those lines are being drawn, agricultural, industrial and residential areas may be
avoided, or forced to relocate. This unified approach is designed to prevent conflict between the different functions. It is estimated that when complete,
both
ecological red lines will cover 25% of China’s land, and over 30% of its ocean area. As those areas expand, they can cover entire ecosystems,
protecting biodiversity and, thanks to carbon sequestration by plants, the soil and animals,
providing climate benefits. And when ecosystems are well protected, conflict between biodiversity,
environmental and climate targets – for example, the destruction of grasslands and wetlands to
increase forest coverage, or the felling of natural forests to create carbon sink forests – can be
avoided.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
A/T China is destroying the oceans.
1. China is working to stop overfishing.
Yifan & Yi ’21, Jiang Yifan (is a senior editor at China Dialogue. For many years, he has been writing, reporting and editing on international environmental and
agrarian politics. He has an MPhil in Social Anthropology from the University of Bergen in Norway) & Shi Yi (senior researcher with China Dialogue, also contributed to this
article), “14th Five Year Plan: China’s carbon-centred environmental blueprint,” China Dialogue, March 25, 2021, https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/14th-five-year-plan-china-
carbon-centred-environmental-blueprint/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw8uOWBhDXARIsAOxKJ2FvAE3gKUcVAIuDIQwknvcTAUjw2-
The section on the ocean provides another look at how China’s environmental ideas are being extended overseas. “Harmony between humanity and the ocean, win-win cooperation,
and pushing forward with conservation of ocean ecologies,” are mentioned in the section introduction. This compares with the 13th FYP, where the language focused on developing
One notable change in this year’s document is the call for “sustainable
the ocean economy and ocean resources.
distant-water fishing” – the word “sustainable” was missing five years ago. The first mention of the
development of distant-water fishing (DWF) was in 2011’s 12th FYP, and the country’s DWF capacity has increased rapidly ever since, now far outstripping any other country.
China’s DWF fleet operates in the waters of 40 countries and regions, and on the high seas of the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans, as well as in Antarctic waters. Illegal, unreported
Last year, China announced its first self-

and unregulated (IUU) fishing by Chinese vessels has become a matter of international concern.
imposed moratorium on some high seas fishing, but how China will make this sector
“sustainable” next is anyone’s guess. A 14th FYP document specific to the fishing industry,
currently being drafted, will provide more answers.
2. China is working to protect the oceans and the Arctic.
there has been a shift from “protecting [China’s] ocean rights” in the 13th
When it comes to international relations,
FYP to a more active “in-depth participation in global ocean governance”, promoting the
establishment of a “fair and reasonable international ocean regime” and the development
of “blue partnerships” and an “ocean community with a shared future.” According to Liu Nengye, director of
the Centre for Environmental Law at Macquarie University, “China used to focus on cooperation with littoral states, but as its capabilities in ocean industries such as ship-making
and distant-water fishing have expanded, it has acquired the ability and experience to participate in the setting of international rules. The change in language could be seen as an
the 14th FYP Outline also proposes an “Ice Silk

intensification of the ‘marine world power’ strategy.” On polar governance,
Road” shipping route in the Arctic, alongside increasing capacities to participate in

governance and utilisation of the Antarctic. In 2017, China hosted Antarctic Treaty talks for the first time, and in 2018 published a white
paper on the Arctic, which Liu regards as landmarks for China’s involvement in polar governance. He says that while there are international calls for protection of the poles, and in
China stresses a balance between protection and utilisation, and he sees the
particular the Antarctic,
language in the 14th FYP Outline as a steady continuation of China’s polar policy.
3. China is combatting ocean pollution and working to protect marine life and habitats.
the 14th FYP Outline calls for more cooperation with other
When it comes to governance of the ocean environment,
coastal states on monitoring, protection and research, and better study and assessment of
strategic deep-sea resources and biodiversity. Meanwhile, at home, China will bolster
controls of land-source ocean pollution, with river basins, river mouths and coastal waters
to come under unified management with a so-called “land-sea coordination” approach, and
the scope of caps on land-source pollutants to be expanded to ensure river water quality.
Ultimately, this work needs to be reflected in improvements to coastal environments and ecologies, and in five years the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will assess progress
as part of a national “Beautiful Bays” campaign. This will look at water quality, as well as the recovery of marine life and habitats and the protection and restoration of natural
the Beautiful Bays

coastlines. A 14th FYP specific to ocean environmental protection is being drafted, the first such to be produced. According to the ministry,
campaign will feature as a target in that document, with all 1,467 of China’s ocean bays to
be certified by 2035. And improving the environment in Chinese waters is also of benefit
to the global ocean.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
A/T China’s economy is strong so it can shift focus to its environment.
1. In the wake of Covid, China is struggling to grow its economy.
Elliot ’22, Larry Elliott (is the Guardian's economics editor), “China’s struggles delight some – but should make us all nervous,” The Guardian, May 2022,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/15/china-struggle-delight-nervous-covid-threat-economy
More than two years after Covid-19 cases

China has been central to the story of globalisation over the past 30 years, but now it is struggling.
were discovered in Wuhan, the world’s most populous country has yet to get on top of the
virus. Draconian lockdowns have been imposed because China’s vaccines are less effective
than those available in the west, and immunity levels are lower as well. Growth is slowing,
and not just because of the tough restrictions insisted upon by President Xi Jinping. Flaws
in China’s economic model coupled with a more hostile geopolitical climate mean the days
of explosive expansion are over. Unlike the US, the UK or the euro area, China is not facing the inflationary problem that has prompted central
banks to raise (or think about raising) interest rates. On the contrary, the People’s Bank of China is easing policy to stimulate credit growth. The authorities will try to spend and
export their way out of trouble.
2. China’s rapidly aging population risks its economy completely coming apart.
Chang ’22, Gordon G. Chang (is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and The Great U.S.-China Tech War. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang. Chang is
also a Senior Editor for 1945), “The Chinese Economy Is In A Death Spiral,” 1945, May 21, 2022, https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/the-chinese-economy-is-in-a-death-spiral/
The Chinese economy – and the nation overall – is passing a series of inflection points. The most fundamental one is demographic:
The Chinese population is on track for a steep decline. The most immediate inflection point
is economic: China is now contracting. The country needs growth to retire monumental
debt, however. We start with the “relentless maker and breaker of civilizations,” demography. Demography will break China,
which according to demographers from Xian Jiaotong University is slated to lose half its
population in 45 years. At the end of this century, China could be about one-third as
populous as it is now. The country, therefore, faces the sharpest demographic decline in
history in the absence of war or disease. Panicked efforts to avoid the decline—moving from a one-child policy in 2015 to a three-child
policy in 2021, for instance—have proven unsuccessful in increasing birth rates Such a precipitous fall means that, if China is
going to pass America to reach the top spot, it will have to do so within, say, a decade
before a falling population begins to undermine economic performance. In the next ten
years, however, China’s economy is more likely to come apart.
3. The Chinese economy is fast approaching a death spiral.
Chang ’22, Gordon G. Chang (is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and The Great U.S.-China Tech War. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang. Chang is
also a Senior Editor for 1945), “The Chinese Economy Is In A Death Spiral,” 1945, May 21, 2022, https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/the-chinese-economy-is-in-a-death-spiral/
The renminbi, one of the world’s strongest currencies last year, is now weak, down about
7% in the last three months. Last month was the worst ever for the Chinese currency. The
Communist Party, unwilling to implement structural reforms, is adopting last-resort measures. “The lockdowns have something to do with keeping people from knowing about this
The Emergence from and Potential

and keeping people from complaining about it,” said Stevenson-Yang, also author of China Alone:
Return to Isolation. “This is what China typically does, is keep information from flowing
around rather than actually address the problem. And they will be doing more of this as
time goes on.” Beijing is great on censoring, but the reckoning in the Chinese economy is
coming nonetheless. China is fast approaching its death spiral, the point of no-return, where
fear grips markets in a final crisis.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
Rebuttal Overviews
First Affirmative
Recall that the value “for the round is morality because the language of the resolution frames the
question as one of morality because of the use of the word ‘ought’ in the resolution and Merriam
Webster defines ought to mean moral obligation. This is the contextually correct meaning of ought to
use because 1) we are debating values and morality is a value 2) moral debate is inherently a debate
over competing conceptions of the good or values 3) the other concepts in the resolution such as public
health and criminal justice are all best illuminated through a moral philosophy. Additionally, morality
is an intrinsic value that informs all other values and so is indispensable to any normative framing.”
My opponent argued __________ but this is wrong because __________. So extend that morality is
the proper value and any other value must be rejected which would mean rejecting a case that does not
conclude to the value of morality. Now recall that the criterion for the round is Bentham’s principle
of utility. Extend Bentham who wrote, “Nature has placed mankind under the governance of two
sovereign masters, pain and pleasure… The principle of utility recognizes this… By the principle*7 of
utility is meant that principle which approves or disapproves of every action whatsoever, according to
the tendency it appears to have to augment or diminish the happiness of the party whose interest is in
question.” My opponent argued ____________ but this is wrong because ____________. So I am
winning the criterion debate and so only offense back to my standard matters in the round rendering
my opponent’s case irrelevant. Now recall my first point where Maizland proved that environmental
issues is becoming the biggest threat to its political stability writing, “the Chinese Communist Party
fears activism could catalyze democratic social change, and so has constrained the efforts of
organizations, activists, and grassroots movements. For example, a 2016 law made it harder for
international NGOs to work in China. Under Xi, the government has shown more resolve to crack
down on public dissent, including by arresting activists and censoring documentaries and social media
commentary. The government’s inability to curb pollution could damage China’s international
standing.. China cannot regain its greatness in the world if its people continue to breathe polluted air,
drink toxic water, and eat tainted food.” My opponent argued ____________ but this is wrong because
____________. So extend that this means China is a world nuclear superpower and the collapse of her
government places the Chinese people, and the world in danger and so we must affirm. Now recall
my second point where Huang proved that China’s lack of environmental protection is undermining
its health and future economic well-being writing, “in 2018, dirty air cost 6.6 percent of China’s GDP,
compared to 5.4 percent for India and 3 percent for the United States. Pollution also reduces grain yield
by severely impeding photosynthesis. A Chinese agriculture expert suggested that if smog persists at
high levels, China’s agriculture sector would suffer conditions “somewhat similar to a nuclear winter.”
My opponent argued ____________ but this is wrong because ____________. So extend that this
means China must protect the environment over economic growth because failing to do so means China
will not even grow economically meaning it is impossible for the negative to achieve the greatest good
and so we must affirm. Now recall my third point where Igini proved that China’s air pollution kills
millions annually and it is only getting worse writing, “Estimated to cause an average of 1.2 million
premature deaths every year, China’s poor air quality is primarily attributed to the rapid economic
expansion the country experienced since 1979, which resulted in a drastic increase in coal-powered
industrial production and electricity demand, as well as an exponential rise in private vehicles.” My
opponent argued ____________ but this is wrong because ____________. So extend that this means
prioritizing economic growth over the environment would continue policies which pollute the air in
China that kills millions annually and so we must affirm.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
Second Affirmative
Webster defines ought to mean moral obligation. This is the contextually correct meaning of ought to
use because 1) we are debating values and morality is a value 2) moral debate is inherently a debate
over competing conceptions of the good or values 3) the other concepts in the resolution such as public
health and criminal justice are all best illuminated through a moral philosophy. Additionally, morality
is an intrinsic value that informs all other values and so is indispensable to any normative framing.”
My opponent argued __________ but this is wrong because __________. So extend that morality is
the proper value and any other value must be rejected which would mean rejecting a case that does not
conclude to the value of morality. Now recall that the criterion for the round is cost benefit analysis.
Extend Audi who warrants this writing, “cost benefit analysis… is utterly neutral as to the objects of
value. Quite consistently with the approach, we can assign a value to act-types as such independently
of their consequences for happiness, for instance a negative value to the sheer breaking of a promise…
it should be possible for rational persons to (a) identify what matters, (b) indicate roughly how much
it matters, and (c) weight its mattering in relation to how probable it is given certain options.” My
opponent argued __________ but this is wrong because __________. So I am winning the criterion
debate so only offense back to my criterion is relevant to the round. Now recall my first point where
Myers, Bradsher, and Buckley proved that Chinese rapid and erratic economic growth has left it
vulnerable to the effects of climate change writing, “China’s breakneck growth over the last four
decades erected soaring cities where there had been hamlets and farmland… Now those cities face the
daunting new challenge of adapting to extreme weather caused by climate change… the flooding of
cities across China in recent years is “a general manifestation of urban problems” in the country. The
vast expansion of roads, subways and railways in cities… meant there were fewer places where rain
could safely be absorbed.” My opponent argued __________ but this is wrong because __________.
So extend that this With over one billion people in the country this places multiple millions of lives at
stake. Thus, protecting the environment has the benefit of protecting millions of lives and so we must
affirm. Now recall my second point where Chunquan & Neo proved that 65% of China’s GDP is at
risk due to nature loss writing, “65% of the country’s total GDP, or the equivalent to 9 trillion USD, is
at risk of disruption from nature loss. Intertwined forces of urbanization, increased purchasing power
and changes in consumer behaviour put enormous strain on China’s natural capital, pushing critical
ecosystems to the cusp of irreversible tipping points. This ultimately becomes a threat to the very
foundation of China’s economic growth and societal wellbeing.” My opponent argued __________
but this is wrong because __________. So extend that this means the harms of negating could bring a
massive economic crash preventing the negative from achieving any benefits and so we must affirm.
Now recall my third point where Igini proved that China is at risk of reaching ‘peak water’ by 2030
writing, “glaciers in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau… that have fed the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers with
glacial meltwater for thousands of years, have retreated by 82% and more than one-fifth of the ice
cover has disappeared since the 1950s. According to Greenpeace, the shortage will become
‘dramatically’ acute when these glaciers reach their ‘peak water’ – meaning that the rate of water
consumption surpasses water supply – something that might happen as early as 2030… rising
temperatures have also impacted atmospheric circulation, making rainfall patterns unreliable and less
frequent.” My opponent argued __________ but this is wrong because __________. So extend that
this means affirming has the benefit of ensuring the billion people in China have water to drink which
of course they need more than they need more of the yen and so we must affirm.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
First Negative
Webster defines ought to mean moral obligation. This is the contextually correct meaning of ought
to use because 1) we are debating values and morality is a value 2) moral debate is inherently a
debate over competing conceptions of the good or values 3) the other concepts in the resolution
such as public health and criminal justice are all best illuminated through a moral philosophy.
Additionally, morality is an intrinsic value that informs all other values and so is indispensable to
any normative framing.” My opponent argued __________ but this is wrong because __________.
So extend that morality is the proper value and any other value must be rejected which would mean
rejecting a case that does not conclude to the value of morality. Now recall that the criterion for
the round is prioritizing the practical option. Extend Serra who warrants this writing, “the effort
to correct or reinforce certain habits and mental experiments that each actor performs in order to
determine his own future conduct, and even to determine in a general manner the way in which
one wishes to live one’s life (or, what amounts to the same thing, the type of person one wishes to
be). The task of a pragmatist ethics, therefore, is not to provide final solutions, but rather to indicate
that it is only via the testing and communication of experiences that the superiority of one moral
idea over another can be demonstrated. In this sense, one of the principal missions of any given
version of pragmatist ethics is to indicate some general manner in which habits can be acquired
which, later, will facilitate personal deliberation – both internal and external – in the broad variety
of circumstances which make up the moral life.” My opponent argued _________ but this is wrong
because __________. So I am winning the criterion debate and so only offense that accesses my
criterion is relevant to the round. Now extend my first point where Stalley proved that it is a
myth that China does not work to protect its environment. History proves the opposite writing,
“China has been the world’s leading investor in renewable energy since 2013…It has three times
more renewable energy capacity than any other country, and its electric vehicle use is growing. As
of 2019, about half the world’s electric vehicles and 98% of electric buses were in China… China
achieved nine of the 15… targets in its 2015 climate commitments ahead of schedule. Over the
past decade, coal has fallen from about 70% to 57% of its energy consumption… China has also
established a national emissions trading system for the electricity sector.” My opponent argued
_________ but this is wrong because __________. So extend that this means that contrary to
popular belief, China does protect her environment and the Chinese environment is in much better
shape than the affirmative portrays it to be. Now recall my second point where Nath proved that
China’s economy is showing signs of economic collapse writing, “China is showing signs of a
possible economic collapse… China has suffered from sinking oil prices, a shrinking
manufacturing sector, a devalued currency and a plummeting stock market… the Nikkei 225
(N225) index declined almost 12%, with a near 9% dive posted on a single day… losses in the
Chinese stock market triggered global sell-offs and prompted China to devaluate the yuan…
Chinese manufacturing has declined to its lowest level in three years… Worries of a continued
freefall in China have raised concerns whether a spillover effect could hit the U.S. and the global
markets.” My opponent argued _________ but this is wrong because __________. So extend that
this means that the Chinese economy, as contrasted from the Chinese environment, is in bad shape
and could collapse bringing down global markets and harming all who depend upon the Chinese
economy. Thus the practical option is prioritizing the economy and so we must negate.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
Second Negative
Webster defines ought to mean moral obligation. This is the contextually correct meaning of ought
to use because 1) we are debating values and morality is a value 2) moral debate is inherently a
debate over competing conceptions of the good or values 3) the other concepts in the resolution
such as public health and criminal justice are all best illuminated through a moral philosophy.
Additionally, morality is an intrinsic value that informs all other values and so is indispensable to
any normative framing.” My opponent argued __________ but this is wrong because __________.
So extend that morality is the proper value and any other value must be rejected which would mean
rejecting a case that does not conclude to the value of morality. Now recall that the criterion for
the round is consequentialism. Extend Dickens who warrants this writing, “The case for
consequentialism is simple: not only do consequences matter, but the only things that can possibly
matter are consequences… A will is only morally relevant because of the actions it is likely to
produce. Anything other than an effect, practically by definition, does not matter. This applies to
areas other than ethics as well. For example, a basketball player may practice his sport, but he does
not do it because it is valuable in itself. Rather, he practices because he thinks that doing so will
develop his skills.” My opponent argued _________ but this is wrong because __________. So
I am winning the criterion debate and so only offense that accesses my criterion is relevant to the
round. Now extend my first point where Yifan & Yi proved that China is already embracing
nature-based solutions to all the affirmative harms writing, “The ministry has called for… nature-
based solutions…in… mitigating climate change – that is, using the carbon sequestration capacity
and ecological services provided by forests, rivers, lakes, grasslands and even
farmland…Improving the system of ecological safety barriers” includes completion of ecological
buffers such as the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau and the northern forest shelterbelts; better protection
and management of rivers, lakes and wetlands; the protection of forests; land greening; tackling
soil loss, desertification and rocky desertification; and restoring grasslands, wetlands and seas.”
My opponent argued _________ but this is wrong because __________. So extend that this means
that China, despite the story the affirmative is telling, is already working to effectively solve its
environmental problems. Thus if its economy is in trouble, China must prioritize her economy.
Now recall my second point where Chang proved that the problems with the Chinese property
sector are an existential threat to the Chinese economy writing, “Property accounts for somewhere
between 25% to 30% of total GDP. Around 70% of the household wealth of the Chinese people is
tied up in property… This type of Chinese “money” looks like it will lose value as confidence
disappears. Investors pulled a record $17.5 billion of portfolio assets—stocks and bonds—from
China in March… The flight of capital is, from all appearances, continuing… Chinese monetary
authorities are now caught in a bind. They need to force rates down to stimulate the economy, but
such moves would aggravate capital flight.” My opponent argued _________ but this is wrong
because __________. So extend that this means that the Chinese economy is in dire straits. With
a billion people in China, and billions more around the world dependent on the Chinese economy
for their health and well-being, China must shift to prioritizing her economy as this would lead to
the best consequences and so we must negate.
Back to Contents
The LD File China
Preflows
V = Morality
because of the use of the word ‘ought’ in
the resolution and Merriam Webster
defines ought to mean moral obligation.
This is the contextually correct meaning of
ought to use because 1) we are debating
values and morality is a value 2) moral
debate is inherently a debate over
competing conceptions of the good or
values 3) the other concepts in the
resolution such as public health and
criminal justice are all best illuminated
through a moral philosophy.
Additionally, morality is an intrinsic value
that informs all other values and so is
indispensable to any normative framing
Cr = Bentham’s Principle of Utility

x-Bentham
Nature has placed mankind under the
governance of two sovereign masters, pain
and pleasure… The principle of utility
recognizes this… By the principle*7 of
utility is meant that principle which
approves or disapproves of every action
whatsoever, according to the tendency it
appears to have to augment or diminish
the happiness of the party whose interest
is in question
1 environmental issues is becoming

the biggest threat to its political
stability
x- Maizland
the Chinese Communist Party fears
activism could catalyze democratic social
change, and so has constrained the efforts
of organizations, activists, and grassroots
movements. For example, a 2016 law
made it harder for international NGOs to
work in China. Under Xi, the government
has shown more resolve to crack down on
public dissent, including by arresting
activists and censoring documentaries and
social media commentary. The
government’s inability to curb pollution
could damage China’s international
standing.. China cannot regain its
greatness in the world if its people
continue to breathe polluted air, drink
toxic water, and eat tainted food
2 China’s lack of environmental

protection is undermining its health
and future economic well-being
x-Huang
in 2018, dirty air cost 6.6 percent of
China’s GDP, compared to 5.4 percent for
India and 3 percent for the United States.
Pollution also reduces grain yield by
severely impeding photosynthesis. A
Chinese agriculture expert suggested that
if smog persists at high levels, China’s
agriculture sector would suffer conditions
“somewhat similar to a nuclear winter
3 China’s air pollution kills millions

annually and it is only getting worse
x-Igini
Estimated to cause an average of 1.2
million premature deaths every year,
China’s poor air quality is primarily
attributed to the rapid economic expansion
the country experienced since 1979, which
resulted in a drastic increase in coal-
powered industrial production and
electricity demand, as well as an
exponential rise in private vehicles
Back to Contents
The LD File China
V = Morality
through a moral philosophy. Additionally,
morality is an intrinsic value that informs
all other values and so is indispensable to
any normative framing
Cr = Cost Benefit Analysis

x-Audi
cost benefit analysis… is utterly neutral as
to the objects of value. Quite consistently
with the approach, we can assign a value
to act-types as such independently of their
consequences for happiness, for instance a
negative value to the sheer breaking of a
promise… it should be possible for
rational persons to (a) identify what
matters, (b) indicate roughly how much it
matters, and (c) weight its mattering in
relation to how probable it is given certain
options
1 Chinese rapid and erratic economic

growth has left it vulnerable to the
effects of climate change
x- Myers, Bradsher, and Buckley
China’s breakneck growth over the last
four decades erected soaring cities where
there had been hamlets and farmland…
Now those cities face the daunting new
challenge of adapting to extreme weather
caused by climate change… the flooding
of cities across China in recent years is “a
general manifestation of urban problems”
in the country. The vast expansion of
roads, subways and railways in cities…
meant there were fewer places where rain
could safely be absorbed
2 65% of China’s GDP is at risk due to

nature loss
x- Chunquan & Neo
65% of the country’s total GDP, or the
equivalent to 9 trillion USD, is at risk of
disruption from nature loss. Intertwined
forces of urbanization, increased
purchasing power and changes in
consumer behaviour put enormous strain
on China’s natural capital, pushing critical
ecosystems to the cusp of irreversible
tipping points. This ultimately becomes a
threat to the very foundation of China’s
economic growth and societal wellbeing
3 China is at risk of reaching ‘peak

water’ by 2030
x-Igini
glaciers in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau…
that have fed the Yangtze and Yellow
Rivers with glacial meltwater for
thousands of years, have retreated by 82%
and more than one-fifth of the ice cover
has disappeared since the 1950s.
According to Greenpeace, the shortage
will become ‘dramatically’ acute when
these glaciers reach their ‘peak water’ –
meaning that the rate of water
consumption surpasses water supply –
something that might happen as early as
2030… rising temperatures have also
impacted atmospheric circulation, making
rainfall patterns unreliable and less
frequent
Back to Contents
The LD File China
V = Morality
Cr = prioritizing the practical option

x-Serra
the effort to correct or reinforce certain
habits and mental experiments that each
actor performs in order to determine his
own future conduct, and even to determine
in a general manner the way in which one
wishes to live one’s life (or, what amounts
to the same thing, the type of person one
wishes to be). The task of a pragmatist
ethics, therefore, is not to provide final
solutions, but rather to indicate that it is
only via the testing and communication of
experiences that the superiority of one
moral idea over another can be
demonstrated. In this sense, one of the
principal missions of any given version of
pragmatist ethics is to indicate some
general manner in which habits can be
acquired which, later, will facilitate
personal deliberation – both internal and
external – in the broad variety of
circumstances which make up the moral
life
1 it is a myth that China does not work

to protect its environment.
x-Stalley
China has been the world’s leading
investor in renewable energy since
2013…It has three times more renewable
energy capacity than any other country,
and its electric vehicle use is growing. As
of 2019, about half the world’s electric
vehicles and 98% of electric buses were in
China… China achieved nine of the 15…
targets in its 2015 climate commitments
ahead of schedule. Over the past decade,
coal has fallen from about 70% to 57% of
its energy consumption… China has also
established a national emissions trading
system for the electricity sector
2 China’s economy is showing signs

of economic collapse
x-Nath
China is showing signs of a possible
economic collapse… China has suffered
from sinking oil prices, a shrinking
manufacturing sector, a devalued currency
and a plummeting stock market… the
Nikkei 225 (N225) index declined almost
12%, with a near 9% dive posted on a
single day… losses in the Chinese stock
market triggered global sell-offs and
prompted China to devaluate the yuan…
Chinese manufacturing has declined to its
lowest level in three years… Worries of a
continued freefall in China have raised
concerns whether a spillover effect could
hit the U.S. and the global markets
Back to Contents
The LD File China
V = Morality
Cr = consequentialism
x-Dickens
The case for consequentialism is simple:
not only do consequences matter, but the
only things that can possibly matter are
consequences… A will is only morally
relevant because of the actions it is likely
to produce. Anything other than an effect,
practically by definition, does not matter.
This applies to areas other than ethics as
well. For example, a basketball player may
practice his sport, but he does not do it
because it is valuable in itself. Rather, he
practices because he thinks that doing so
will develop his skills
1 that China is already embracing

nature-based solutions to all the
affirmative harms
x- Yifan & Yi
The ministry has called for… nature-based
solutions…in… mitigating climate change
– that is, using the carbon sequestration
capacity and ecological services provided
by forests, rivers, lakes, grasslands and
even farmland…Improving the system of
ecological safety barriers” includes
completion of ecological buffers such as
the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau and the
northern forest shelterbelts; better
protection and management of rivers,
lakes and wetlands; the protection of
forests; land greening; tackling soil loss,
desertification and rocky desertification;
and restoring grasslands, wetlands and
seas
2 the problems with the Chinese

property sector are an existential threat
to the Chinese economy
x-Chang
Property accounts for somewhere between
25% to 30% of total GDP. Around 70% of
the household wealth of the Chinese
people is tied up in property… This type
of Chinese “money” looks like it will lose
value as confidence disappears. Investors
pulled a record $17.5 billion of portfolio
assets—stocks and bonds—from China in
March… The flight of capital is, from all
appearances, continuing… Chinese
monetary authorities are now caught in a
bind. They need to force rates down to
stimulate the economy, but such moves
would aggravate capital flight
Back to Contents

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TFF CONSIDERS POSTING

Resolved: The People’s Republic of China ought to

is imagined that we will find out in at least some rounds.

it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.”5) To summarize,

taken a toll on the environment of China.

sluggish domestic consumption, and external uncertainties,” he says. China’s government

its economy as it works to overcome debt and Covid.

again they go hand in hand.

determine how judges are to identify which one is ‘worst.’

Ought 1 Used to indicate duty or correctness, typically when criticizing someone’s

Ought 1 to indicate duty or obligation ⇒ "you ought to pay your dues"

Prioritize To arrange or deal with in order of importance.

Prioritize to list or rate (as projects or goals) in order of priority

Environmental 1 Of, relating to, or associated with the environment

Environmental 1 the circumstances, objects, or conditions by which one is surrounded

Environmental relating to the environment

Environmental 1 the aggregate of surrounding things, conditions, or influences;

Protection 1: the act of protecting : the state of being protected

Protection 1. the activity of protecting someone or something

Protection 1 The process of keeping (something or someone) safe.

Economic 1 relating to economics or the economy

Economic 1 of or having to do with the management of the income, expenditures,

Growth 1a(1): a stage in the process of growing : SIZE

Growth 1 The process of increasing in physical size.

Growth 1 the act or process, or a manner of growing; development; gradual increase.

we need a criterion to distinguish between moral and immoral action.

The principle of utility is the foundation and standard of morality.

Press, 1789, explains how,

Nature has placed mankind under the governance of two sovereign

than it is moral, and we must affirm.

good for the greatest number.

1. Environmental issues is becoming the biggest threat to its political stability.

political system, he writes. Indeed, as public awareness of environmental degradation has

reduces grain yield by severely impeding photosynthesis. A Chinese agriculture expert

the greatest good and so we must affirm.

increase in coal-powered industrial production and electricity demand, as well as an

reached 12 billion tonnes, accounting for 33% of the global total.

we need a criterion to distinguish between moral and immoral action.

answering ethical questions.

I contend the benefits of affirming outweigh any harms.

daunting new challenge of adapting to extreme weather caused by climate change, a

of lives and so we must affirm.

2. 65% of China’s GDP is at risk due to nature loss.

risks of extinction. A healthy natural ecosystem is not an environmental imperative alone,

disruption from nature loss. Intertwined forces of urbanization, increased purchasing

from achieving any benefits and so we must affirm.

3. China is at risk of reaching ‘peak water’ by 2030.

we need a criterion to distinguish between moral and immoral action.

effective option for achieving ethical ends.

Journal of Pragmatism and American Philosophy, 2010, https://journals.openedition.org/ejpap/pdf/905

make up the moral life.

I contend that prioritizing economic growth is the most practical option.

environment is in much better shape than the affirmative portrays it to be.

2. China’s economy is showing signs of economic collapse.

U.S.?” Investopedia, June 25, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091515/chinas-economic-collapse-good-us.asp

effect could hit the U.S. and the global markets.

we need a criterion to distinguish between moral and immoral action.

conclusion holds just as strongly with regard to moral actions.

then morality dictates that we negate.

1. China is already embracing nature-based solutions to all the affirmative harms.

environmental blueprint,” China Dialogue, March 25, 2021, https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/14th-five-year-plan-china-carbon-

“Improving the system of ecological safety barriers” includes completion of ecological