FV - FM - Hero MotoCorp - IIM V

FINANCIAL MODELING & CORPORATE VALUAT
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AUTO INDUSTRY
Indian Auto Industry

CAGR of -9.2
%
35.0 CAGR of 7.5%
Category 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
29.0
2017-18 30.9 2018-19
30.0
Two Wheelers 16.9 18.4 25.3 18.9 19.9 23.0 24.5
26.3
23.3 24.1 4.1
25.0
Passenger Vehicles 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.03.8 4.0 4.1 22.7
21.5 3.5
3.8
Commercial
20.0 Vehicles 3.2 0.7 3.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 3.1
3.1
Others 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.3
15.0
TOTAL 21.5 23.3 24.1 25.3 29.0 30.9
10.0 7.5%
5.0 7.7%
16.9 18.4 18.9 19.9 23.0 24.5 20.9 18.4
-
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Two Wheelers Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles Others TOTAL

Source: SIAM
Domestic Sales Trend

Category 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Passenger Vehicles 2503509 2601236 2789208 3047582 3288581 3377436
Commercial Vehicles 632851 614948 685704 714082 856916 1007319
Three Wheelers 480085 532626 538208 511879 635698 701011
Two Wheelers 14806778 15975561 16455851 17589738 20200117 21,181,390
Quadricycle# 0 0 0 627
Grand Total 18423223 19724371 20468971 21863281 24981312 26267783
Export Sales Trend

Category 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Three Wheelers 353392 407600 404441 271894 381002 567689
Two Wheelers 2084000 2457466 2482876 2340277 2815003 3,280,841
Quadricycle* 334 1556 1605 4400
Grand Total 3110584 3573346 3643828 3480725 4042841 4629054
Total Sales Trend

Category 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Three Wheelers 833477 940226 942649 783773 1016700 1268700
Two Wheelers 16890778 18433027 18938727 19930015 23015120 24462231
Quadricycle* 0 0 334 1556 1605 5027
Grand Total 21533807 23297717 24112799 25344006 29024153 30896837
Industry Segmentation
Motorcycles
Scooters
Mopeds
Total
Source: Company
Hero: Segment Market

2018-19
Share (Domestic)
Entry Segment 56.4%
Deluxe 100cc Segment 80.8%
Deluxe 125cc Segment 56.2%
Premium 150cc+ Segment 1.4%
Scooter 10.7%
Source: Company
Product wise Volumes

Hero Splendor < 100 cc
Hero HR Deluxe
Hero Splendor < 125cc
Hero Passion
Hero Glamour
Hero Xtreme <200
Hero Xtreme < 150
Hero Pleasure
Hero Destini 125
Hero Maestro
Total
% of total volume
Source: Company, Rushlane
Market Share
Others
CAGR of -9.2 Eicher Motors 8%
%
3%
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
26.3 20.9 18.4 17.9
22.7
3.5 3.1 23.1 3.6 TVS Motors
3.5 16%
0.83.1 0.6 3.6 0.8
1.1 0.6 0.8
26.3 22.7 23.1
3.4% 0.8% 0.9%
Bajaj Auto
20.9 18.4 17.9 20%
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Others TOTAL
Player Performance
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep-22
2,773,575 2,711,457 3,069,499 1,936,740 Hero
717,688 568,559 716,566 456,199 Honda
636,569 216,197 260,995 196,612 Bajaj Auto
17,417,616 15,119,387 13,466,412 8,398,464 TVS Motors
942 12 124 Eicher Motors
21546390 18615612 17513596 10,988,015 Others
Total
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep-22

677,311 404,400 577,875
60,713 50,334 92,297
502,169 392,941 499,730
3,520,376 3,277,724 4,443,018 2,104,845
5,185 3,529 4,326
4765754 4128928 5617246
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep-22

3450886 3115857 3647374
778401 618893 808863
1138738 609138 760725
20937992 18397111 17909430 10503309
6127 3541 4450
26312144 22744540 23130842
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
64% 66% 67%
32% 30% 30%
4% 4% 3%
100% 100% 100%
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
68.9% 68.0% 62.1%

74.8% 84.0%
58.5%
49.8% 41.0%
1.6% 3.7% 3.7%
7.2% 9.9% 7.7%
FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 % change

2,063,148 1,960,001 -5%
2,050,974 1,661,272 -19%
569,652 500,247 -12%
502,264 487,455 -3%
602,623 462,912 -23%
8,541 48,403 467%
9,946 18,896 90%
155,329 203,594 31%
113,944 144,332 27%
94,533 95,533 1%
6,170,954 5,582,645 -9.5%
96.3% 96.4% 0.0%
Market Share Growth Prospects
Others FY23 FY23 & FY24
8% ICRA Morgan Stanley
Hero CRISIL FADA
31%
CARE
Hero
o
Honda
22%
Sales Volume Volume Growth

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Sep-22 y-o-y CAGR FY19
7.82 6.41 5.79 4.94 2.82 -15% -14% 32.0%
5.52 5.03 4.07 4.13 2.46 1% -9% 22.6%
5.02 4.62 3.61 3.84 1.87 6% -9% 20.5%
3.76 3.09 2.93 3.14 1.84 7% -6% 15.4%
0.82 0.74 0.61 0.60 0.39 -2% -10% 3.4%
1.52 1.06 1.39 1.26 1.12 -9% -6% 6.2%
24.46 20.94 18.40 17.91 10.50 -3% -10% 100.0%
organ Stanley
Market Share
FY20 FY21 FY22 Sep-22 Diff FY21 to FY22 Diff FY22 to H1FY23
30.6% 31.5% 27.6% 26.8% -3.9% -0.8%
24.0% 22.1% 23.1% 23.5% 0.9% 0.4%
22.0% 19.6% 21.4% 17.8% 1.8% -3.7%
14.8% 15.9% 17.5% 17.5% 1.6% 0.0%
3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.4%
5.1% 7.5% 7.0% 10.7% -0.5% 3.7%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Production Performance
Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

Capacity (Mn) 7.65 8.08 8.08 9.10 9.43
Sales Quantity (Mn) 6.63 6.63 6.66 7.59 7.82
Capacity Utilization (%) 87% 82% 82% 83% 83%
- Sales Quantity Growth 0.0% 0.5% 13.9% 3.1%
Sector Growth (Qty Mn) 2.7% 5.2% 15.5% 6.3%

Market Share 36% 35% 33% 33% 32%
Income Statement
44112.907117 46549.969843 46494.087635 43627.610564 43438.61103

Revenue from Operations 29,256 30,872 30,984 33,101 33,972
Other Income 492 389 522 523 687
Total Income 29,748 31,261 31,506 33,624 34,659
Expenses
Raw Material 19,715 19,313 19,116 21,886 23,444
Excise Duty 1,718 2,258 2,373 643 1
Employee Costs 1,179 1,343 1,432 1,584 1,778
Other Expenses 3,292 3,575 3,486 3,664 3,730
Total Expenses 25,904 26,490 26,408 27,776 28,954
EBITDA 3,844 4,771 5,098 5,848 5,705

Depreciation & Amortization 540 447 502 575 624
EBIT 3,304 4,324 4,596 5,273 5,081
Finance Expenses 12 12 27 31 37
PBT before profits of JVs 3,292 4,312 4,568 5,242 5,044
Add: Share of Profits of JVs 15 39 279 51 61
PBT & Exceptional Items 3,307 4,352 4,847 5,294 5,104
Exceptional Items
PBT 3,307 4,352 4,847 5,294 5,104
Tax 943 1,262 1,339 1,570 1,638
PAT 2,364 3,090 3,508 3,724 3,466
Less: Share of Minority Interest (1) (4) (38) 2 23
PAT for Equity Shareholders 2,365 3,094 3,546 3,722 3,444
Dividend 1,198 1,398 1,737 1,698 1,897
Balance Sheet

Equity & Liabilities
Equity Share Capital 40 40 40 40 40
Other Equity 6,500 7,913 10,276 11,932 13,080
Total Equity 6,540 7,953 10,316 11,971 13,120
Non-Controlling Interest 19 54 67 93 116
Non-Current Liabilities
Borrowings 12 146 208 150 125
Lease Liabilities - - - - -
Deferred Tax Liabilities - 228 469 582 613
Other Non-Current Liabilities 98 120 76 119 121
Total Non-Current Liabilities 110 493 752 851 859
Current Liabilities
Short Term Borrowings 88 84 40 75 184
Lease Liabilities - - - - -
Trade Payables 2,713 2,792 3,266 3,375 3,438
Other Financial Liabilities 359 203 224
- Current Maturities' of LTB 13 3 3
Other Current Liabilities 1,185 1,296 499 825 561
Total Current Liabilities 3,986 4,172 4,177 4,481 4,409
TOTAL EQUITIES & LIABILITIES 10,654 12,672 15,312 17,397 18,504
Assets
Non-Current Assets
Property, Plant & Equipment 2,851 3,907 4,495 4,771 4,793
Intangible Assets 101 129 387 239 385
Capital-Work in Progress 315 331 104 190 160
Intangible Assets under Development 404 323 194 116 188
Investment 821 945 1,025 1,160 1,706
Financial Assets 722 876 545 964 1,328
Other Non-Current Assets 60 74 991 954 1,532
Total Non-Current Assets 5,275 6,585 7,741 8,395 10,091
Current Assets
Current Investments 2,297 3,249 4,544 5,591 3,174
Inventories 861 762 709 963 1,250
Trade Receivables 1,372 1,282 1,552 1,427 2,745
Cash, Bank & Cash Equivalents 216 179 195 238 304
Other Current Assets 633 615 571 784 941
Total Current Assets 5,380 6,087 7,571 9,002 8,413
TOTAL ASSETS 10,654 12,672 15,312 17,397 18,504
Check - - - - -
No of Shares (in crs) 19.97 19.97 19.97 19.97 19.98

Total Debt 100 230 261 228 311
Net Debt (116) 51 65 (10) 8
Net Fixed Assets 2,952 4,036 4,882 5,010 5,177
Net Fixed Assets (incl CWIP) 3,671 4,689 5,180 5,316 5,525
Ratios
Profitability Ratios
EBITDA Margin 11.5% 14.2% 14.8% 16.1% 14.8%
PAT Margin 7.9% 9.9% 11.1% 11.1% 10.0%
Leverage & Coverage Ratios
Debt / Equity 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
Net Debt / EBITDA (0.03) 0.01 0.01 (0.00) 0.00
Interest Service Coverage Ratio 328.6 402.0 186.9 189.9 153.4
Liquidity & Turnover Ratio
Current Ratio 1.35 1.46 1.81 2.01 1.91
Trade Receivable Days 17 15 18 16 29
Inventory Days 12 10 10 13 16
Trade Payable Days 50 53 62 56 54
Return & Shareholders Ratios (21) (27) (34) (28) (8)
ROE 36.2% 38.9% 34.4% 31.1% 26.2%
EPS 118.41 154.92 177.58 186.39 172.40
DPS 60.00 70.00 87.00 85.00 94.99
Dividend Payout Ratio 51% 45% 49% 46% 55%
Unit Analysis
Avg Selling Price / Unit (incl Spares / Se 44,113 46,550 46,494 43,628 43,439
Avg RM Cost / Unit 29,728 29,121 28,686 28,846 29,977
EBITDA / Unit 5,796 7,194 7,650 7,708 7,295
Competitor Analysis
Net Debt Sales EBITDA

Consolidated Financials (FY22) Sales (Mn) Net Worth
(ND) (Rs Cr) (Rs Cr)
Hero MotoCorp 4.94 15,847 305 29,551 4,000
Bajaj Auto 3.84 29,859 (958) 33,145 7,351
TVS Motors 3.14 4,398 13,762 24,355 2,747
Eicher Motors 0.60 12,608 (2,664) 10,298 2,087
Industry Average (Simple)
Industry Average (Weighted)
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Sep-22
9.10 9.53 9.53 4.77
6.41 5.79 4.94 2.82
70% 61% 52% 59%
-18.0% -9.6% -14.6% 14.0%
-14.4% -12.1% -2.7% 17.3%

30.6% 31.5% 27.6% 26.8%
45642.12565 53455.89488 59770.19306 Common Size

Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
29,255 30,959 29,551 17,606 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
731 558 555 150 1.7% 1.3% 1.7%
29,986 31,517 30,106 17,755 101.7% 101.3% 101.7%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19,831 21,744 20,920 12,637 67.4% 62.6% 61.7%
1 - - - 5.9% 7.3% 7.7%
1,889 1,951 1,996 1,116 4.0% 4.4% 4.6%
3,473 3,165 3,190 1,825 11.3% 11.6% 11.3%
25,194 26,860 26,107 15,578 88.5% 85.8% 85.2%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4,791 4,657 4,000 2,177 13.1% 15.5% 16.5%
846 715 690 346 1.8% 1.4% 1.6%
3,946 3,942 3,310 1,832 11.3% 14.0% 14.8%
47 46 53 62 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
3,899 3,896 3,257 1,770 11.3% 14.0% 14.7%
35 (47) (199) (45) 0.1% 0.1% 0.9%
3,934 3,849 3,058 1,725 11.3% 14.1% 15.6%
677 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4,611 3,849 3,058 1,725 11.3% 14.1% 15.6%
952 913 729 457 3.2% 4.1% 4.3%
3,659 2,936 2,329 1,268 8.1% 10.0% 11.3%
21 18 12 (11) 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
3,638 2,918 2,317 1,279 8.1% 10.0% 11.4%
1,937 1,398 1,898 4.1% 4.5% 5.6%
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Sep-22
40 40 40 40
14,366 15,376 15,807 16,375
14,406 15,416 15,847 16,415
141 143 148 128
44 45 24 28
208 212 216 234
473 453 378 414
124 322 336 364
848 1,032 954 1,039
166 285 317 439

33 30 36 25
3,128 5,264 4,343 5,316
259 168 146 133
2 12 12 13
691 746 675 702
4,279 6,505 5,530 6,629
19,674 23,096 22,478 24,211
5,786 5,551 5,354 5,185

687 830 839 796
205 236 149 171
187 259 368 428
2,098 2,408 2,203 2,562
1,619 2,001 2,514 3,212
443 441 478 371
11,025 11,726 11,906 12,725
4,709 6,225 5,870 4,313

1,282 1,789 1,472 1,686
1,512 2,275 2,158 4,008
435 396 300 418
710 685 771 1,060
8,649 11,370 10,572 11,486
19,674 23,096 22,478 24,211
- - - -
19.98 19.98 19.98 19.98

453 584 605 740
18 188 305 322
6,473 6,380 6,194 5,981
6,864 6,876 6,711 6,580
1.6%
13.9% 13.2% 11.7% 11.5%
12.2% 9.3% 7.7% 7.1%
0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04

0.00 0.04 0.08 0.07
102.7 100.4 75.3 35.4
2.02 1.75 1.91 1.73

19 27 27 42
19 24 21 20
58 88 76 77
(20) (37) (29) (15)
25.3% 18.9% 14.6% 7.8%
182.13 146.03 115.96 64.00
96.97 69.99 95.00 -
53% 48% 82% 0%
45,642 53,456 59,770 62,468

30,939 37,544 42,313 44,837
7,475 8,042 8,090 7,726
PAT EBITDA PAT ND / ND / Selling Price /

(Rs Cr) Margin Margin Equity EBITDA unit
2,329 14% 8% 0.02 0.08 59,770
6,166 22% 19% (0.03) (0.13) 86,385
728 11% 3% 3.13 5.01 77,614
1,677 20% 16% (0.21) (1.28) 170,984
17% 11% 0.73 0.92 98,688
17% 11% 0.17 0.65 77,747
Modeling: good practices
1 Cell Refrencing rather than hardcoding (no
2 One Column dedicated to one FY in the ent
3 Colour Coding - Hardcoded in Blue, Formu
4 Use Group Outline incase of lot of data for
5 Build Index for easy navigation
6 Write justification or comments for assump
7 Build Management Dashboard:- Summary,
8 Make Financial models presentable since it
Common Size
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-16 Mar-17
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 5.5% 0.4%
1.6% 2.0% 2.5% 1.8% 1.9% 0.8%
101.6% 102.0% 102.5% 101.8% 101.9% 100.8%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
66.1% 69.0% 67.8% 70.2% 70.8% 71.8% 0.6%
1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4.8% 5.2% 6.5% 6.3% 6.8% 6.3% 0.5%
11.1% 11.0% 11.9% 10.2% 10.8% 10.4% 0.6%
83.9% 85.2% 86.1% 86.8% 88.3% 88.5% 1.6%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17.7% 16.8% 16.4% 15.0% 13.5% 12.4%
1.7% 1.8% 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0%
15.9% 15.0% 13.5% 12.7% 11.2% 10.4%
0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
15.8% 14.8% 13.3% 12.6% 11.0% 10.1%
0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.2% -0.7% -0.3%
16.0% 15.0% 13.4% 12.4% 10.3% 9.8%
0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16.0% 15.0% 15.8% 12.4% 10.3% 9.8%
4.7% 4.8% 3.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.6%
11.3% 10.2% 12.5% 9.5% 7.9% 7.2%
0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1%
11.2% 10.1% 12.4% 9.4% 7.8% 7.3%
5.1% 5.6% 6.6% 4.5% 6.4% 0.0%
ood practices
ng rather than hardcoding (not only for numbers, but also for Dates & Text)
dedicated to one FY in the entire model i.e. FY21 remains in column H throughout the model and FY22 in column I
ng - Hardcoded in Blue, Formulas in Black
utline incase of lot of data for easy viewing
or easy navigation
ation or comments for assumptions, provide data / links / source
ement Dashboard:- Summary, Scenarios, Sensitivity Analysis for helping in decision making
al models presentable since it can be able shared with clients, investors, top management
Trend CAGR
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
6.8% 2.6% -13.9% 5.8% -4.5% 0.1%
1.7%
0.2%
0.9%
-100.0%
7.8%
-0.4%
0.1%
0.6%
Drivers
Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Production
Capacity (Mn) 7.65 8.08 8.08 9.10
Capacity Utilization (%) 87% 82% 82% 83%
Sales Quantity (Mn) 6.63 6.63 6.66 7.59
- Sales Quantity Growth 0.0% 0.5% 13.9%
Sector Growth (Qty Mn) 2.7% 5.2% 15.5%

Hero Growth (Qty Mn) 0.0% 0.5% 13.9%
Sector Sales (Mn) 18.43 18.94 19.93 23.02

Market Share 36.0% 35.0% 33.4% 33.0%
-0.96% -1.58% -0.47%
-1.20%
Revenue Break-up
- Two wheelers 26,742 27,867 27,898 29,652
- Spare Parts & Components 2,279 2,565 2,570 2,578
- Services 167 203 212 230
- Others 67 238 304 641
Total Revenue from Operations 29,256 30,872 30,983 33,101
Avg. Selling Price (Rs) 40,323 42,019 41,863 39,081

- Growth in Selling Price 4.2% -0.4% -6.6%
- Spare Parts (as % of Total Sales) 7.8% 8.3% 8.3% 7.8%
- Spare Parts (as % of 2W Sales) 8.5% 9.2% 9.2% 8.7%

- Services (as % of 2W Sales) 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8%
- Others (as % of 2W Sales) 0.3% 0.9% 1.1% 2.2%
Other Income (% of sales) 1.7% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6%
Expenses
(1) Raw Material + Excise Duty (% of sales) 73% 70% 69.4% 68.1%
(2) Avg. Raw Material Cost / Unit 29,728 29,121 28,686 28,846
- Growth in Raw Material Cost -2% -1% 1%
Employee Cost (% of sales) 4.03% 4.35% 4.62% 4.78%

Other Expenses (% of sales) 11.25% 11.58% 11.25% 11.07%
Depreciation (% of FA) 11% 10% 11%

Finance Cost (% of Total Debt) 7.2% 11.1% 12.6%
Effective Tax Rate 28.5% 29.0% 27.6% 29.7%
Dividend Payout Ratio 50.7% 45.2% 49.0% 45.6%
Funding at D/E Ratio -
Working Capital
Trade Receivable Days 17 15 18 16
Inventory Days 12 10 10 13
Trade Payable Days 50 53 62 56
Additional Information
Capacity
Plant wise Capacity (mn units per annum) Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Gurgaon, Haryana 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Dharuhera, Haryana 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Haridwar, Uttarakhand 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Neemrana, Rajasthan 0.75 1.1 1.1 1.1
Vadodara, Gujarat 0.9
Villa Rica, Colombia 0.08 0.08 0.08
Jessore, Bangladesh 0.12
Chittoor, Andhra Pradesh**
New Plant, if any
TOTAL 7.65 8.08 8.08 9.10
*change in capacity is due to BS-VI compliance
**can ramp up to 1.8mn
Quarterly Data
Quarter Ending Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19
FY Ending Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19
Qty Sales 2.11 2.13 1.80 1.78
Selling Price
Particulars
Revenue (incl Spares, Services, others)
Avg Selling Price
Growth in Avg Selling Price
Raw Material Cost

Particulars
Raw Material Expense
RM as % of Sales
Avg RM Cost / unit
Growth in Avg RM Cost
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25
9.43 9.10 9.53 9.53

83% 70% 61% 52%
7.82 6.41 5.79 4.94 5.50 5.99 6.35
3.1% -18.0% -9.6% -14.6% 11.16% 8.95% 6.04%
5.53
6.3% -14.4% -12.1% -2.7% 16.0% 13.0% 10.0%
3.1% -18.0% -9.6% -14.6% 11.8% 8.9% 6.0%
24.46 20.94 18.40 17.91 20.77 23.48 25.82

32.0% 30.6% 31.5% 27.6% 26.5% 25.5% 24.6%
-1.00% -1.36% 0.87% -3.87%
29,055.04
30,016 25,323 26,823 24,544 29,033 33,528 37,509
2,836 2,915 3,199 3,975 4,905 5,900 6,863
595 576 429 458 561 643 686
526 441 508 574 561 662 763
33,973 29,255 30,959 29,551 35,060 40,733 45,821
38,379 39,508 46,315 49,643 52,827 55,997 59,077

-1.8% 2.9% 17.2% 7.2% 6.4% 6.0% 5.5%
8.3% 10.0% 10.3% 13.5% 14.0% 14.5% 15.0%
9.4% 11.5% 11.9% 16.2% 16.9% 17.6% 18.3%

2.0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%
1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
2.0% 2.5% 1.8% 1.9% 0.85% 0.85% 0.85%
69.0% 67.8% 70.2% 70.8%

29,977 30,939 37,544 42,313 45,028 47,729 50,355
3.9% 3.2% 21.3% 12.7% 6.4% 6.0% 5.5%
5.23% 6.46% 6.30% 6.75% 6.4% 6.0% 5.6%

10.98% 11.87% 10.22% 10.80% 10.58% 10.80% 10.80%
12% 14% 10% 10%

13.8% 12.2% 8.9% 8.9%
32.1% 24.2% 23.7% 23.8%
55.1% 53.2% 47.9% 81.9%
29 19 27 27
16 19 24 21
54 58 88 76
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25

2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
1.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
0.08 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
0.15 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
9.4 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21

Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-21 Mar-21 Mar-21
1.84 1.69 1.54 1.33 0.56 1.81 1.85 1.57

8,185 7,661 7570.7 6,334 2,969 9,473 9,827 8,690
44,413 45,291 49,133 47,462 52,712 52,203 53,255 55,408
2.0% 8.5% -3.4% 11.1% -1.0% 2.0% 4.0%

5,592 5,145 5126 4319 2061 6,719 6,890 6,074
68.3% 67.2% 67.7% 68.2% 69.4% 70.9% 70.1% 69.9%
30,343 30,419 33,265 32,363 36,595 37,024 37,336 38,730
1.2% 0.3% 9.4% -2.7% 13.1% 1.2% 0.8% 3.7%
Justification / Comments
1 Capacity * Utilization Unutilized capacity, No upda

2 Unit / Sales growth
3 Unit growth based on Sector growth Method:
4 Market Share
5 Qtrly projections
Correl R square Hero growth linked to sector

0.9213127 0.848817084
2,000.00 870.00 43.50% Q1 call transcripts

3,000.00 1,250.00 41.67% Q2 call transcripts based on selected scenario
1000 425.83 42.58% news
1500 638.75 42.58% news
3,184.58
6.4% continued growth expected b
Don’t Include Outliers in averages
inflationary pressure (cost + c

RBI estimate the 5.2% + 0.8%
% decline 0.39%
assuming asset mix remains t

Expected Interest Rate hikes
steadily going back to pre-co

Mar-22 Mar-22 Mar-22 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-23 Mar-23 Mar-23
1.02 1.44 1.29 1.19 1.39 1.43 1.30 1.37 5.50

0.52
0.4579844

5,503 8,539 8,013 7,497 8,448 9,158
53,713 59,354 62,014 63,055 60,765 64,126
-3.1% 10.50% 4.48% 1.68% -3.63% 5.53%

3,964 6,141 5,659 5,157 6,105 6,532
72.0% 71.9% 70.6% 68.8% 72.3% 71.3%
38,690 42,685 43,793 43,379 43,913 45,737
-0.1% 10.3% 2.6% -0.9% 1.2% 4.2%
Unutilized capacity, No update on Chittoor expansion -> no capacity expansion required
Hero growth linked to sector growth based on past yrs
based on selected scenario
continued growth expected by company with increase in auto business
inflationary pressure (cost + commodities). RBI inflation estimate of 6.7% for FY23
RBI estimate the 5.2% + 0.8% conservative estimate for FY24
assuming asset mix remains the same

Expected Interest Rate hikes
steadily going back to pre-covid / pre-downturn numbers
Capex
Capex (CFI) 1,233 1,638 1,238 824 980
- Expansion / Upgradation / Modernization 1,098 882 962 696 808
- R&D 135 757 276 128 172
Revenues 29,256 30,872 30,983 33,101 33,973

Capex as % of Revenues 4.2% 5.3% 4.0% 2.5% 2.9%
-Debt
- Equity
Opening FA
Addition
FA before Depreciation
Depreciation
Closing FA
Capex Funding (example)

Capex 2,073
Cashflow (PAT + Depreciation) 16,616
Current Investment 5,870
Cash Balance 300
Less: Min cash balance for liquidity 350
Sale of Asset (non-core) -
Net Funding Requirement (20,363)
Debt Availability
Fresh Equity Requirement (20,363)
D/E Ratio -
Working Capital
Trade Receivable 1,372 1,282 1,552 1,427 2,745
Inventory 861 762 709 963 1,250
Trade Payable 2,713 2,792 3,266 3,375 3,438
Current Assets 2,233 2,044 2,260 2,390 3,995

Net Working Capital (480) (748) (1,006) (986) 556
Short Term Borrowings 88 84 40 75 184
Loan
Opening Balance - LTB
Addition
Repayment
Closing Balance - LTB
STB
Lease Liabilities (NonCurrent + Current)
Total Debt
Interest Cost
Borrowings Repayment Schedule

Loan O/s
Long Term Borrowings
RTL - HDFC Bank (MCLR + 05 bps) 36.2
Lease Liabilities 251.7
Lease Liabilities calculation

Discounting Rate 8.06%
NPV ₹ 251.70
Finance Cost (unwinding of discount)
Interest Rates
Benchmark Rate Avg 2022 Oct-22 Dif Weight
MCLR 4.00% 5.90% 1.90% 21.3%
LIBOR 0.50% 5.46% 4.96% 20.4%
DTF, Columbia 2.38% 11.00% 8.63% 16.7%
Lease Liabilities Disc Rate 8.06% 8.06% 0.00% 41.6%
W.Avg 2.86%
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25
1,275 581 570 875 1,198 Chittoor plant - Capacity
1,028 434 381 Chittoor plant - Total Capex
247 147 189 Cumulative Capex (FY19,20,21)
Pending Capex
Capex Per Million units
29,255 30,959 29,551
4.4% 1.9% 1.9%
6,711 7,586 8,784

875 1,198 -
7,400 7,586 8,784 8,784
690 - - -
6,711 7,586 8,784 8,784

1,512 2,275 2,158
1,282 1,789 1,472
3,128 5,264 4,343
2,794 4,064 3,631

(333) (1,200) (712)
166 285 317

36.2 23.0 9.9
- - -
13.2 13.2 9.9
36.2 23.0 9.9 -
317.3 - - -
251.7 208.5 169.3 133.0
605.2 231.5 179.2 133.0
Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25
13.15 13.15 9.86
43.17 39.21 36.28
1 2 3 4 5
46.7 45.8 45.8 45.8 45.8
43.2 39.2 36.3 33.6 31.1
3.5 6.6 9.5 12.2 14.7
Link
1.8 capex plans of 750 - 1000 crs in 2 yrs (Q3FY22 call
1600
700
900
889
Internal cashflow enough to sustain capex
linear forecasting as high correlation between STB & CA

6 7
56.6 56.6
35.5 32.9
21.0 23.7
Income Statement
Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

Revenue from Operations 29,256 30,872 30,984 33,101 33,972 29,255
Other Income 492 389 522 523 687 731
Total Income 29,748 31,261 31,506 33,624 34,659 29,986
Expenses
Raw Material 21,433 21,571 21,489 22,528 23,446 19,832
Employee Costs 1,179 1,343 1,432 1,584 1,778 1,889
Other Expenses 3,292 3,575 3,486 3,664 3,730 3,473
Total Expenses 25,904 26,490 26,408 27,776 28,954 25,194
EBITDA 3,844 4,771 5,098 5,848 5,705 4,791

EBITDA Margin 11.5% 14.2% 14.8% 16.1% 14.8% 13.9%
Depreciation & Amortization 540 447 502 575 624 846
EBIT 3,304 4,324 4,596 5,273 5,081 3,946
Finance Expenses 12 12 27 31 37 47
PBT before profits of JVs 3,292 4,312 4,568 5,242 5,044 3,899
Add: Share of Profits of JVs 15 39 279 51 61 35
PBT 3,307 4,352 4,847 5,294 5,104 4,611
Tax 943 1,262 1,339 1,570 1,638 952
PAT 2,364 3,090 3,508 3,724 3,466 3,659
Less: Share of Minority Interest (1) (4) (38) 2 23 21
PAT for Equity Shareholders 2,365 3,094 3,546 3,722 3,444 3,638
Dividend 1,198 1,398 1,737 1,698 1,897 1,937
Cash Flow Statement

Inflow
PAT for Equity Shareholder
Depreciation
Equity Infusion
Inc in Non-Controlling Interest
New Long Term Borrowings
Lease Liabilities (NCL)
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Inc in Short Term Borrowings
Trade Payables
Other Current Liabilities
TOTAL INFLOW
Outflow
Dividend
Repayments of Long Term Borrowings
Capex
Investment in Joint Ventures
Financial Assets
Other Non-Current Assets
Current Investments
Inventories
Trade Receivables
Other Current Assets
TOTAL OUTFLOW
NET CASH MOVEMENT
Balance Sheet

EQUITY & LIABILITIES
Total Equity 6,540 7,953 10,316 11,971 13,120 14,406
Non-Controlling Interest 19 54 67 93 116 141
Non-Current Liabilities
Borrowings (incl CM) 12 146 221 153 128 46
Lease Liabilities (incl Current) - - - - - 241
Deferred Tax Liabilities - 228 469 582 613 473
Other Non-Current Liabilities 98 120 76 119 121 124
Total Non-Current Liabilities 110 493 765 854 862 884
Current Liabilities
Short Term Borrowings 88 84 40 75 184 166
Trade Payables 2,713 2,792 3,266 3,375 3,438 3,128
Other Current Liabilities 1,185 1,296 858 1,028 784 950
Total Current Liabilities 3,986 4,172 4,164 4,478 4,406 4,243
TOTAL EQUITIES & LIABILITIES 10,654 12,672 15,312 17,397 18,504 19,674
ASSETS
Non-Current Assets
Fixed Assets & Intangibles (incl CWIP) 3,671 4,689 5,180 5,316 5,525 6,864
Investment 821 945 1,025 1,160 1,706 2,098
Financial Assets 722 876 545 964 1,328 1,619
Other Non-Current Assets 60 74 991 954 1,532 443
Total Non-Current Assets 5,275 6,585 7,741 8,395 10,091 11,025
Current Assets
Current Investments 2,297 3,249 4,544 5,591 3,174 4,709
Inventories 861 762 709 963 1,250 1,282
Trade Receivables 1,372 1,282 1,552 1,427 2,745 1,512
Cash, Bank & Cash Equivalents 216 179 195 238 304 435
Other Current Assets 633 615 571 784 941 710
Total Current Assets 5,380 6,087 7,571 9,002 8,413 8,649
TOTAL ASSETS 10,654 12,672 15,312 17,397 18,504 19,674
Check - - - - - -
Total Debt 100 230 261 228 311 453

Net Debt (116) 51 65 (10) 8 18
Net Working Capital (480) (748) (1,006) (986) 556 (333)
Ratios
Profitability Ratios
EBITDA Margin 11.5% 14.2% 14.8% 16.1% 14.8% 13.9%
PAT Margin 7.9% 9.9% 11.1% 11.1% 10.0% 12.2%
Leverage & Coverage Ratios
Debt / Equity 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03
Net Debt / EBITDA (0.03) 0.01 0.01 (0.00) 0.00 0.00
Interest Service Coverage Ratio 329 402 187 190 153 103
Liquidity & Turnover Ratio
Current Ratio 1.35 1.46 1.82 2.01 1.91 2.04
Trade Receivable Days 17 15 18 16 29 19
Inventory Days 12 10 10 13 16 19
Trade Payable Days 46 47 55 55 54 58
Return & Shareholders Ratios
ROE 36.2% 38.9% 34.4% 31.1% 26.2% 25.3%
EPS 118.36 154.72 175.68 186.48 173.53 183.18
Dividend Payout Ratio 51% 45% 50% 46% 55% 53%
EPS Growth Rate
30,959 29,551 35,060 40,733 45,821
558 555 298 346 389
31,517 30,106 35,357 41,079 46,210
21,744 20,920 24,746 28,578 31,971 70.79%

1,951 1,996 2,231 2,434 2,560 6.75%
3,165 3,190 3,709 4,398 4,947 10.80%
26,860 26,107 30,687 35,409 39,478 88.34%
4,657 4,000 4,670 5,670 6,733

13.2% 11.7% 12.5% 13.1% 13.8%
715 690 346 - 0
3,942 3,310 4,325 5,670 6,732
46 53
3,896 3,257 4,325 5,670 6,732
(47) (199)
3,849 3,058 4,325 5,670 6,732
913 729 457 - 0
2,936 2,329 3,868 5,670 6,732
18 12
2,918 2,317 3,868 5,670
1,398 1,898
3,868 5,670 -
346 - 0
(9) - -
- - -
(43) (39) (36)
36
28
(317) - -
(4,343) - -
26
(410) 5,631 (36)
- - -
13 13 10
875 1,198 -
360
697
(1,557)
819
(1,472) - -
(2,158) - -
289
(2,135) 1,211 10
1,725 4,419 (46)
15,416 15,847
143 148
57 36
242 252
453 378
322 336
1,073 1,002 - - -
285 317
5,264 4,343
914 821
6,463 5,482 - - -
23,096 22,478 - - -
6,876 6,711
2,408 2,203
2,001 2,514
441 478
11,726 11,906 - - -
6,225 5,870
1,789 1,472
2,275 2,158
396 300
685 771
11,370 10,572 - - -
23,096 22,478 - - -
- - - - -
584 605 - - -
188 305 - - -
(1,200) (712) - - -
13.2% 11.7% 12.5% 13.1% 13.8%
9.3% 7.7% 10.9% 13.8% 14.6%
0.04 0.04 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

0.04 0.08 - - -
100 75 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
1.76 1.93 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

27 27 - - -
24 21 - - -
88 76 - - -
18.9% 14.6% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

146.03 115.96 193.57 283.77 -
48% 81% 0% 0% 0%
67% 47% -100%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Risk Free Rate (Rf) 7.35% 10-year Govt. Bond Yield, RBI
Beta
Expected Market Return (Rm)
Cost of Equity (Rf+Beta*(Rm-Rf))
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt

Tax Rate
Post-Tax Cost of Debt
Equity
Debt
Total Capital
Weighted Average Cost of Capital #DIV/0!

Market Return BETA
Particulars NIFTY50 Date NIFTY50
1-Dec-12 5,871 1-Dec 17,167
1-Dec-17 10,121 2-Dec 17,402
1-Dec-19 12,048 3-Dec 17,197
1-Dec-21 17,167 6-Dec 16,912
30-Nov-22 18,758 7-Dec 17,177
1 yr Market Return 9.27% 8-Dec 17,470
14-Dec 17,325
https://www1.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/indices/historical_index_data.htm
15-Dec 17,221
16-Dec 17,248
17-Dec 16,985
20-Dec 16,614
21-Dec 16,771
22-Dec 16,955
23-Dec 17,073
24-Dec 17,004
27-Dec 17,086
28-Dec 17,233
29-Dec 17,214
30-Dec 17,204
31-Dec 17,354
3-Jan 17,626
4-Jan 17,805
5-Jan 17,925
6-Jan 17,746
7-Jan 17,813
10-Jan 18,003
11-Jan 18,056
12-Jan 18,212
13-Jan 18,258
14-Jan 18,256
17-Jan 18,308
18-Jan 18,113
19-Jan 17,938
20-Jan 17,757
21-Jan 17,617
24-Jan 17,149
25-Jan 17,278
27-Jan 17,110
28-Jan 17,102
31-Jan 17,340
1-Feb 17,577
2-Feb 17,780
3-Feb 17,560
4-Feb 17,516
7-Feb 17,214
8-Feb 17,267
9-Feb 17,464
10-Feb 17,606
11-Feb 17,375
14-Feb 16,843
15-Feb 17,352
16-Feb 17,322
17-Feb 17,305
18-Feb 17,276
21-Feb 17,207
22-Feb 17,092
23-Feb 17,063
24-Feb 16,248
25-Feb 16,658
28-Feb 16,794
2-Mar 16,606
3-Mar 16,498
4-Mar 16,245
7-Mar 15,863
8-Mar 16,013
9-Mar 16,345
10-Mar 16,595
11-Mar 16,630
14-Mar 16,871
15-Mar 16,663
16-Mar 16,975
17-Mar 17,287
21-Mar 17,118
22-Mar 17,316
23-Mar 17,246
24-Mar 17,223
25-Mar 17,153
28-Mar 17,222
29-Mar 17,325
30-Mar 17,498
31-Mar 17,465
1-Apr 17,670
4-Apr 18,053
5-Apr 17,957
6-Apr 17,808
7-Apr 17,640
8-Apr 17,784
11-Apr 17,675
12-Apr 17,530
13-Apr 17,476
18-Apr 17,174
19-Apr 16,959
20-Apr 17,137
21-Apr 17,393
22-Apr 17,172
25-Apr 16,954
26-Apr 17,201
27-Apr 17,038
28-Apr 17,245
29-Apr 17,103
2-May 17,069
4-May 16,678
5-May 16,683
6-May 16,411
9-May 16,302
10-May 16,240
11-May 16,167
12-May 15,808
13-May 15,782
16-May 15,842
17-May 16,259
18-May 16,240
19-May 15,809
20-May 16,266
23-May 16,215
24-May 16,125
25-May 16,026
26-May 16,170
27-May 16,352
30-May 16,661
31-May 16,585
1-Jun 16,523
2-Jun 16,628
3-Jun 16,584
6-Jun 16,570
7-Jun 16,416
8-Jun 16,356
9-Jun 16,478
10-Jun 16,202
13-Jun 15,774
14-Jun 15,732
15-Jun 15,692
16-Jun 15,361
17-Jun 15,294
20-Jun 15,350
21-Jun 15,639
22-Jun 15,413
23-Jun 15,557
24-Jun 15,699
27-Jun 15,832
28-Jun 15,850
29-Jun 15,799
30-Jun 15,780
1-Jul 15,752
4-Jul 15,835
5-Jul 15,811
6-Jul 15,990
7-Jul 16,133
8-Jul 16,221
11-Jul 16,216
12-Jul 16,058
13-Jul 15,967
14-Jul 15,939
15-Jul 16,049
18-Jul 16,279
19-Jul 16,341
20-Jul 16,521
21-Jul 16,605
22-Jul 16,719
25-Jul 16,631
26-Jul 16,484
27-Jul 16,642
28-Jul 16,930
29-Jul 17,158
1-Aug 17,340
2-Aug 17,345
3-Aug 17,388
4-Aug 17,382
5-Aug 17,398
8-Aug 17,525
10-Aug 17,535
11-Aug 17,659
12-Aug 17,698
16-Aug 17,825
17-Aug 17,944
18-Aug 17,957
19-Aug 17,758
22-Aug 17,491
23-Aug 17,578
24-Aug 17,605
25-Aug 17,522
26-Aug 17,559
29-Aug 17,313
30-Aug 17,759
1-Sep 17,543
2-Sep 17,539
5-Sep 17,666
6-Sep 17,656
7-Sep 17,624
8-Sep 17,799
9-Sep 17,833
12-Sep 17,936
13-Sep 18,070
14-Sep 18,004
15-Sep 17,877
16-Sep 17,531
19-Sep 17,622
20-Sep 17,816
21-Sep 17,718
22-Sep 17,630
23-Sep 17,327
26-Sep 17,016
27-Sep 17,007
28-Sep 16,859
29-Sep 16,818
30-Sep 17,094
3-Oct 16,887
4-Oct 17,274
6-Oct 17,332
7-Oct 17,315
10-Oct 17,241
11-Oct 16,984
12-Oct 17,124
13-Oct 17,014
14-Oct 17,186
17-Oct 17,312
18-Oct 17,487
19-Oct 17,512
20-Oct 17,564
21-Oct 17,576
24-Oct 17,731
25-Oct 17,656
27-Oct 17,737
28-Oct 17,787
31-Oct 18,012
1-Nov 18,145
2-Nov 18,083
3-Nov 18,053
4-Nov 18,117
7-Nov 18,203
9-Nov 18,157
10-Nov 18,028
11-Nov 18,350
14-Nov 18,329
15-Nov 18,403
16-Nov 18,410
17-Nov 18,344
18-Nov 18,308
21-Nov 18,160
22-Nov 18,244
23-Nov 18,267
24-Nov 18,484
25-Nov 18,513
28-Nov 18,563
29-Nov 18,618
30-Nov 18,758
% Change Hero % Change
2,445.9
1.37% 2,469.9 0.98%
-1.18% 2,462.9 -0.29%
-1.65% 2,418.0 -1.82%
1.56% 2,460.0 1.73%
1.71% 2,488.9 1.17%
0.27% 2,523.3 1.38%
-0.03% 2,528.3 0.20%
-0.82% 2,497.1 -1.23%
-0.25% 2,482.9 -0.57%
-0.60% 2,509.5 1.07%
0.16% 2,469.6 -1.59%
-1.53% 2,447.2 -0.91%
-2.18% 2,355.6 -3.74%
0.94% 2,347.1 -0.36%
1.10% 2,349.9 0.12%
0.69% 2,393.4 1.85%
-0.40% 2,393.7 0.01%
0.49% 2,401.5 0.33%
0.86% 2,418.4 0.70%
-0.11% 2,435.8 0.72%
-0.06% 2,431.3 -0.19%
0.87% 2,461.3 1.24%
1.57% 2,476.5 0.62%
1.02% 2,484.0 0.30%
0.67% 2,507.2 0.93%
-1.00% 2,502.3 -0.20%
0.38% 2,498.5 -0.15%
1.07% 2,579.5 3.24%
0.29% 2,565.9 -0.53%
0.87% 2,590.0 0.94%
0.25% 2,592.6 0.10%
-0.01% 2,570.6 -0.85%
0.29% 2,701.9 5.11%
-1.07% 2,692.6 -0.34%
-0.96% 2,698.3 0.21%
-1.01% 2,710.7 0.46%
-0.79% 2,750.0 1.45%
-2.66% 2,706.8 -1.57%
0.75% 2,775.8 2.55%
-0.97% 2,713.9 -2.23%
-0.05% 2,671.7 -1.55%
1.39% 2,720.1 1.81%
1.37% 2,725.7 0.21%
1.16% 2,703.0 -0.83%
-1.24% 2,779.0 2.81%
-0.25% 2,722.4 -2.04%
-1.73% 2,647.7 -2.74%
0.31% 2,672.5 0.94%
1.14% 2,728.2 2.09%
0.81% 2,734.0 0.21%
-1.31% 2,718.4 -0.57%
-3.06% 2,644.4 -2.72%
3.03% 2,779.7 5.11%
-0.17% 2,785.3 0.20%
-0.10% 2,777.3 -0.29%
-0.16% 2,776.3 -0.03%
-0.40% 2,711.0 -2.35%
-0.67% 2,732.5 0.79%
-0.17% 2,670.8 -2.26%
-4.78% 2,489.6 -6.78%
2.53% 2,559.5 2.81%
0.81% 2,536.2 -0.91%
-1.12% 2,427.5 -4.29%
-0.65% 2,413.6 -0.57%
-1.53% 2,312.7 -4.18%
-2.35% 2,199.6 -4.89%
0.95% 2,251.4 2.35%
2.07% 2,290.3 1.73%
1.53% 2,320.6 1.32%
0.21% 2,331.9 0.48%
1.45% 2,340.8 0.38%
-1.23% 2,317.5 -1.00%
1.87% 2,369.9 2.26%
1.84% 2,419.4 2.09%
-0.98% 2,393.7 -1.06%
1.16% 2,421.3 1.16%
-0.40% 2,395.4 -1.07%
-0.13% 2,413.4 0.75%
-0.40% 2,378.3 -1.46%
0.40% 2,376.6 -0.07%
0.60% 2,208.4 -7.08%
1.00% 2,271.6 2.86%
-0.19% 2,296.8 1.11%
1.18% 2,241.8 -2.39%
2.17% 2,312.3 3.14%
-0.53% 2,332.4 0.87%
-0.83% 2,345.6 0.57%
-0.94% 2,350.3 0.20%
0.82% 2,361.8 0.49%
-0.62% 2,335.6 -1.11%
-0.82% 2,297.3 -1.64%
-0.31% 2,274.7 -0.98%
-1.73% 2,285.3 0.47%
-1.25% 2,263.1 -0.97%
1.05% 2,275.3 0.54%
1.49% 2,317.0 1.83%
-1.27% 2,293.9 -0.99%
-1.27% 2,289.9 -0.18%
1.46% 2,406.6 5.10%
-0.94% 2,499.7 3.87%
1.21% 2,517.6 0.72%
-0.83% 2,505.3 -0.49%
-0.20% 2,486.5 -0.75%
-2.29% 2,409.9 -3.08%
0.03% 2,502.1 3.83%
-1.63% 2,562.6 2.42%
-0.67% 2,492.1 -2.75%
-0.38% 2,471.8 -0.82%
-0.45% 2,470.6 -0.05%
-2.22% 2,403.5 -2.72%
-0.16% 2,448.7 1.88%
0.38% 2,496.3 1.94%
2.63% 2,522.3 1.04%
-0.12% 2,539.2 0.67%
-2.65% 2,518.7 -0.81%
2.89% 2,591.2 2.88%
-0.32% 2,630.4 1.51%
-0.55% 2,639.6 0.35%
-0.62% 2,595.1 -1.69%
0.90% 2,636.4 1.59%
1.13% 2,717.9 3.09%
1.89% 2,770.8 1.95%
-0.46% 2,782.4 0.42%
-0.37% 2,758.6 -0.86%
0.64% 2,664.0 -3.43%
-0.26% 2,584.5 -2.98%
-0.09% 2,540.8 -1.69%
-0.92% 2,569.2 1.12%
-0.37% 2,586.3 0.67%
0.74% 2,596.6 0.40%
-1.68% 2,603.5 0.26%
-2.64% 2,597.7 -0.22%
-0.27% 2,552.5 -1.74%
-0.25% 2,605.1 2.06%
-2.11% 2,518.3 -3.33%
-0.44% 2,467.4 -2.02%
0.37% 2,450.6 -0.68%
1.88% 2,498.9 1.97%
-1.44% 2,523.8 0.99%
0.93% 2,670.9 5.83%
0.92% 2,757.3 3.24%
0.85% 2,757.2 -0.01%
0.11% 2,765.3 0.29%
-0.32% 2,752.2 -0.47%
-0.12% 2,719.7 -1.18%
-0.18% 2,759.9 1.48%
0.53% 2,758.6 -0.05%
-0.15% 2,734.4 -0.88%
1.13% 2,833.3 3.62%
0.89% 2,839.6 0.22%
0.54% 2,849.0 0.33%
-0.03% 2,867.6 0.65%
-0.97% 2,875.3 0.27%
-0.57% 2,842.1 -1.15%
-0.18% 2,792.9 -1.73%
0.69% 2,799.6 0.24%
1.43% 2,817.0 0.62%
0.38% 2,799.3 -0.63%
1.10% 2,827.1 0.99%
0.51% 2,848.0 0.74%
0.69% 2,870.9 0.80%
-0.53% 2,838.2 -1.14%
-0.88% 2,800.3 -1.34%
0.96% 2,783.4 -0.60%
1.73% 2,782.7 -0.02%
1.35% 2,817.5 1.25%
1.06% 2,840.8 0.83%
0.03% 2,770.4 -2.48%
0.25% 2,799.7 1.06%
-0.04% 2,806.6 0.24%
0.09% 2,769.3 -1.33%
0.73% 2,739.7 -1.07%
0.06% 2,776.3 1.34%
0.71% 2,785.3 0.33%
0.22% 2,760.9 -0.88%
0.72% 2,816.6 2.02%
0.67% 2,914.0 3.46%
0.07% 2,907.0 -0.24%
-1.10% 2,837.0 -2.41%
-1.51% 2,777.0 -2.11%
0.50% 2,802.5 0.92%
0.16% 2,805.3 0.10%
-0.47% 2,800.1 -0.19%
0.21% 2,826.3 0.94%
-1.40% 2,826.8 0.02%
2.58% 2,839.2 0.44%
-1.22% 2,875.5 1.28%
-0.02% 2,825.0 -1.75%
0.72% 2,841.8 0.59%
-0.06% 2,866.1 0.86%
-0.18% 2,854.2 -0.42%
0.99% 2,857.7 0.12%
0.19% 2,838.5 -0.67%
0.58% 2,857.1 0.66%
0.75% 2,870.2 0.46%
-0.37% 2,853.8 -0.57%
-0.70% 2,791.4 -2.19%
-1.94% 2,684.9 -3.82%
0.52% 2,706.7 0.81%
1.10% 2,770.8 2.37%
-0.55% 2,776.4 0.20%
-0.50% 2,775.7 -0.02%
-1.72% 2,763.0 -0.46%
-1.80% 2,719.9 -1.56%
-0.05% 2,638.8 -2.98%
-0.87% 2,588.9 -1.89%
-0.24% 2,534.2 -2.11%
1.64% 2,550.1 0.63%
-1.21% 2,526.2 -0.94%
2.29% 2,624.2 3.88%
0.33% 2,646.1 0.83%
-0.10% 2,623.8 -0.84%
-0.43% 2,573.7 -1.91%
-1.49% 2,548.7 -0.97%
0.82% 2,549.8 0.04%
-0.64% 2,547.2 -0.10%
1.01% 2,534.3 -0.51%
0.73% 2,554.2 0.78%
1.01% 2,561.4 0.28%
0.14% 2,541.3 -0.78%
0.30% 2,564.3 0.91%
0.07% 2,569.8 0.21%
0.88% 2,580.7 0.43%
-0.42% 2,586.8 0.23%
0.46% 2,611.9 0.97%
0.28% 2,649.2 1.43%
1.27% 2,676.7 1.04%
0.74% 2,670.2 -0.24%
-0.34% 2,642.1 -1.05%
-0.17% 2,646.2 0.15%
0.36% 2,588.2 -2.19%
0.47% 2,620.5 1.25%
-0.25% 2,651.6 1.19%
-0.71% 2,714.3 2.36%
1.78% 2,668.8 -1.68%
-0.11% 2,685.4 0.62%
0.41% 2,729.9 1.66%
0.03% 2,739.0 0.33%
-0.36% 2,743.1 0.15%
-0.20% 2,723.0 -0.73%
-0.81% 2,675.7 -1.74%
0.46% 2,684.8 0.34%
0.13% 2,658.3 -0.99%
1.19% 2,672.7 0.54%
0.15% 2,707.1 1.29%
0.27% 2,784.1 2.84%
0.30% 2,830.6 1.67%
0.75% 2,851.7 0.75%
Enterprise Value - Current
Particulars Amount (Rs Cr)

Current Market Price per share 2,735
No of Shares 20
Common Equity 54,645
Preference Shares -
Non Controlling Interest 128
Net Debt 322
EV 55,095
Discounted Cash Flow
Particulars Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26

PAT
Add: Depreciation & Amortization
Add: Interest * (1 - Tax Rate)
Less: Capital Expenditure
Less: Change in Working Capital
FCFF
FCFF
Less: Interest * ( 1 - Tax Rate)
Add: Net Borrowings
FCFE
Terminal Value
Total Cashflows
Total Equity Value
Net Debt
Total Enterprise Value
Perpetual Growth Rate 3.0%
Multiples / Comparables
EV/Sales Multiple
Particulars Amount
EV/Sales Multiple 2.88
Sales (1yr Fwd) 40,733
Enterprise Value (1yr Fwd) 117,281
EV/EBITDA Multiple
Particulars Amount
EV/EBITDA Multiple
EBITDA (1yr Fwd)
Enterprise Value (1yr Fwd)
P/E Multiple
Particulars Amount
P/E Multiple
PAT (1yr Fwd)
EPS (1yr Fwd)
Price per share (1yr fwd)
Equity Value (1yr Fwd)
Add: Net Debt
Add: Minority Interest / Pref Shares
P/S Multiple
Particulars Amount
P/S Multiple 2.75
Sales (1yr Fwd) 35,060
Sales per share (1yr Fwd) 96,505.14
Price per share (1yr Fwd)
Add: Net Debt
P/B Multiple
Particulars Amount
P/B Multiple
Book Value or Networth (1yr Fwd)
Book Value per share (1yr Fwd)
Price per share (1yr Fwd)
Add: Net Debt
Valuation - Summary
EV Net Debt Equity Value

Valuation Methods
A B C=A-B
Discounted Cash Flow - - -
EV/Sales 117,281 - 117,281
EV/EBITDA - - -
P/E - - -
P/S - - -
P/B - - -
-
Multiples
Trading Comparables
No of Shares MarketCap
Consolidated Financials Price
(cr) (Rs Cr)
Hero MotoCorp 2,735 20 54,645
Bajaj Auto 3,631 29 105,087
TVS Motor 1,082 48 51,384
Eicher Motors 3,389 27 92,686
Mar-27 Mar-28
Reinvestment Rate #DIV/0!

ROE #DIV/0!
Div Payout 0%
Minority Interest Adj. Equity Value Share Value Weight
D E=C-D F = E/No. of shares B
- - -
- 117,281 5,870
- - - 50%
- - - 50%
- - -
- - -
- -
Pref Shares + EV Sales

Net Debt Net Worth
Minority Interest (Rs Cr) (Rs Cr)
128 305 55,079 16,415 33,115
0 (1,116) 103,971 26,035 35,204
381 16,448 68,214 5,070 29,059
- (2,168) 90,519 13,276 12,991
EBITDA PAT
EV/Sales EV/EBITDA P/E P/S P/B
(Rs Cr) (Rs Cr)
4,268 2,594 1.66 12.90 21.07 1.65 3.33
7,058 5,839 2.95 14.73 18.00 2.99 4.04
3,676 1,217 2.35 18.56 42.23 1.77 10.14
3,400 2,334 6.97 26.63 39.71 7.13 6.98
Mean 3.48 18.21 30.25 3.38 6.12
W.Avg 2.88 16.59 27.85 2.75 5.78
Median 2.65 16.64 30.39 2.38 5.51
* TTM - Trailing Twelve Months
PE = MPS /PS = MPS /PB = MPS /
TTM (as of now ) = Q2 (FY23) + Q1 (FY23) + Q4(FYMcap / PATMcap / SaleMcap / Net
Hero Moto Corp Recommendation SELL Target:
Company Overview
Key Stats (FY22) Market Data
Capacity (mn) 9.53 Current Price (Rs) 2,735
2Wheeler Sales (mn) 4.94 Market Cap (cr) 54,645
Market Share (%) 28% 52-week high / low 2939/2148
Key Financials (Rs cr) Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

Capacity 8.08 8.08 9.10 9.43 9.10
Production / Sales (Qty) 6.63 6.66 7.59 7.82 6.41
Revenue 30,872 30,984 33,101 33,972 29,255
EBITDA 4,771 5,098 5,848 5,705 4,791
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.2% 14.8% 16.1% 14.8% 13.9%
Net Profit 3,094 3,546 3,722 3,444 3,638
Capex 1,638 1,238 824 980 1,275
Fixed Assets 4,689 5,180 5,316 5,525 6,864
Networth 7,953 10,316 11,971 13,120 14,406
Total Debt 230 261 228 311 453
D/E Ratio 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03
Gravity Analysis (using data tables)

Sales Output Selling Price
0% - 0% -
1% 1%
-1% -1%
Football Field Analysis (using data tables)
Valuation Method Base Min Max Fo

0 -10% 10%
Discounted Cash Flow 0 P/B0 0
EV/Sales 5870 P/S0 0
EV/EBITDA 0
P/E0 0
P/E 0
P/S 0 EV/EBITDA0 0
P/B 0 EV/Sales0 0
Discounted Cash Flow0 0
52W High-Low 2
-500 500 1500
0 Live Scenario: 1 2
Sector
Growth
Valuation
Enterprise Value -
Selling
Target Price -
Price
Potential Upside -100.0%
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 9

9.53 9.53 - - - 8
5.79 4.94 5.50 5.99 6.35
7
30,959 29,551 35,060 40,733 45,821
6
4,657 4,000 4,670 5,670 6,733
5
Qty (Mn)
13.2% 11.7% 12.5% 13.1% 13.8%
4
2,918 2,317 3,868 5,670 -
581 570 875 1,198 - 3
6,876 6,711 - - - 2
15,416 15,847 - - - 1
584 605 - - - 0
0.04 0.04 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 M
Production / Sales (Qty)
Raw Material Cost

0% -
-1%
1%
Football Field Min Difference

Football Field Max
52W High-Lo 2148 791 2939
Discounted
P/B0 0 Ca 0 0 0
EV/Sales
P/S0 0 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA 0 0 0
P/E0 0
P/E 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA
P/S 0 0 0 0 0
P/B 0 0
EV/Sales 0 0 0
Discounted Cash Flow0 0
52W High-Low 2148 2939
-500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 6500
Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25
Optimistic 16.0% 13.0% 10.0%
Base 11.0% 9.0% 7.0%
Pessimistic 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
S1 - gain margin
S2 - same margin 6.4% 6.0% 5.5%
S3 - loose margin
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
Rs crore
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25
Production / Sales (Qty) Revenue EBITDA

Capital Competitive
Sector Sector Segments Leverage Regulations
Intensive Intensity
- Upstream
OIL & GAS Yes High High Medium
- Downstream
- Generation
POWER - Transmission Yes High Medium Medium
- Distribution
ROADS Yes High Medium Medium
- Full Service /
Low Cost
AIRLINE Yes High High High
- Pan India /
Regional
- Integrated /
Primary
STEEL Yes High Low High
/Secondary
- Flat / Long
CEMENT Yes High Low Medium
- Commercial
Vehicles
AUTO - Passenger No Low Low High
Vehicles
- 2 / 3 Wheeler
- Commercial
Vehicles
- Passenger
TYRE Vehicles No Low Low Medium
- 2 / 3 Wheeler
- Off the Road
(OTR)
FMCG No Low Low High

- Commercial /
REAL ESTATE Yes High Medium Medium - High
Residential
- Service Provider
TELECOM Yes High High High
- Tower Company
PSU / Private /
BANKING Yes High High High
Co-operative
IT No Low Low Medium - High

Please note that these are generic parameters. There could be some companies the sector who may not have these differentiators.
In other words, Ratios may not be inline with the generic trends in the sector.
Demand Drivers Key Raw Materials
- Industrial Machines
- Secondary Power Generation
- Oil & Gas Reserves
- Automobiles
- Domestic Gas
- Industrial & Residential Usage

- Coal
- Rural Electrification
- Renewables
- Electric Cars (Future)
- Asphalt (bitumen)
Govt. Contracts
- concrete (Cement)
- Business & Leisure Tourism

- Fuel
- Sporting / Musical Events
- Infrastructure
- Construction
- Automobiles
- Iron Ore / Coal
- Pipes & Tubes
- Capital Goods
- Consumer Durables
- Real Estate
- Limestone / Clay
- Construction
- Coal
- Roads
- Industrial Activity / Expansion

- Inc in Consumer Purchasing
Power - Various Components
- Interest Rate Scenario / Financing
Options
- Auto Demand
- Rubber
- Repurchase Market
Various products
- Consumer Purchasing Power
depending on the
- Changing Lifestyle
product segment
- Commercial Activities
- Consumer Purchasing Power - Cement
- Affordable Housing - Steel
- Hospitality / Tourism
- Shift towards Digital

- Content viewership - Spectrum
- Business Activity
- Industrial Activity / Expansion

- Inc in Consumer Purchasing
Power
- Inc in Digital Economy
- Financial Inclusion
- Increasing Automation
- Global Growth
differentiators.
Key Success Parameters (CRISIL) Key Players
- Large & better quality reserves

- Diversified portfolio
- High Price of Oil & Gas ONGC / GAIL / Reliance / IOC / BPCL
- Proven ability to constantly replace exploited reserves
- Efficient Cost Structure
- Capacity Utilization Levels
- Future Capacity Addition Plans Generation - NTPC / Tata Power / Adani
- Availability of Raw Materials & Costs Power
- Sale through PPAs / Spot / Condition of the Trade Transmission - PowerGrid / Sterlite
Receivables Distribution - State Electricity Boards
- Tariff scenario
- Traffic Volumes
- IRB / GR Infra / Dilip BuildCon / L&T /
- Maintenance cost of Road
Ashoka BuildCon
- Project Construction Risk
- Operating Routes
- Operational Efficiency & Cost Control
Indigo / Vistara / Spice Jet
- Secondary Sources of Revenues
- Growth / Expansion Plan / Capex / Airline Age
- Diversity in Client Base

- Globally Competitive Cost Structure
TATA Steel / JSW Steel / SAIL
- Presence of Captive Power, Iron Ore , Coal
- Share of Value Added Products in sales
- Location Advantage
- Demand Supply Trends in the Region
UltraTech / Adani / Shree Cement
- Access to Economical Lime Stone reserves & energy costs
- Product Mix, branding and pricing power
PV - Maruti
- Presence in multiple segments CV - Ashok Leyland / M&M / Tata
- Product development & technological capabilities Motors
- Widespread distribution & service networks 2W - HeroMoto / Honda / Bajaj / TVS /
- Level of Integration Eicher
Auto Components - Motherson Sumi
- Diversified Clientele / Market Share

- Locational Advantage
- Presence in After Market & Exports MRF / Apollo / JK Tyre / CEAT
- Technology / Product Complexity
- Cost Efficient Operations
-Wide & Diversified Product Portfolio

- Brand Equity
- Successful Innovation & Product Differentiation ITC / HUL / P&G
- Distribution Network
- Efficient Supply Chain Management
- Project Completion Track Record
- Diversification (Commercial vs Residential)
- Clientele / Sales of completed/ongoing projects DLF / HUDCO
- Real Estate Prices/ Interest Rates
- Financial Power / Ability of Promoter to infuse Funds
- Ability to manage cost & revenue on per minute/ second

level
- Impact of changes in regulatory environment
Reliance Jio / Airtel / Vodafone Idea
- Adoption of Technological changes with superior features
at lower costs
- Financial Power / Ability of the promoter to infuse funds
- Size
- Capital Adequacy
- CASA / Cost of funding / NIM
SBI / HDFC / ICICI
- NPA / Credit quality / Risk Systems
- Diversity in Income Sources
- Govt Support
- Clientele with Geographic Diversity
TCS / Infosys / Wipro
- Past Performance Record
Drivers / Assumptions Forecast Models Income Statement Cash flow Statement Balance Sheet
Gross Sales Inflow (A) Equity & Liabilities
Revenue Model Revenue Model Other Income CFO PAT Equity
Quantity x Price Total Income CFO Depreciation Shareholders Equity
- Capacity - Substitute Expense Model CFF Equity Infusion Preference Shares
- Demand - Technology Raw Materials CFF Non-Controlling Interest Non-Controlling Interest
- Competition - Indirect Taxes Capex & Fixed Asset Employee Cost CFF New Long Term Borrowings Non-Current Liabilities
- New Products - Market Share Capex Other Expenses CFO Other Non-Current Liabilities Long Term Borrowings
- Geographic Expansion Depreciation Total Expenses CFF Short Term Borrowings Other Non-Current Liabilities
PAST FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

CFO Trade Payables
Expense Model Loan Schedule (LTB) EBITDA CFO Other Current Liabilities Current Liabilities
Quantity x Price Repayment Schedule Depreciation Short Term Borrowings
- RM Usage - Substitute New Borrowings EBIT Trade Payables
- RM Prices - Technology Finance Cost Finance Cost Outflow (B) Other Current Liabilities
PBT CFF Dividend
ECONOMY
Capex Other Assumptions Tax CFF Repayments of LTB Assets

SECTOR
- Capex / Expansion Plans Tax PAT CFI Capex Non-Current Assets

- Capex Guidance Dividends (+/-)Share of JV CFI Non-Current Investment Net Fixed Assets
- Linked to Revenue Growth (+/-)Share of Minority Interest CFO Other Non-Current Assets CWIP
- Maintenance Capex Working Capital PAT for shareholders CFO Trade Receivables Non-Current Investment
- Technological Upgrade Trade Receivables Dividend CFO Inventory Other Non-Current Assets
Inventory CFI Current Investment
Loan Schedule Trade Payables CFO Other Current Assets Current Assets
- Capex Net Working Capital Trade Receivables
- Debt Equity Ratio Short Term Borrowings Net Cash Flow (A-B) Inventory
- Interest Rate Current Investment
- IDC / Interest from P&L Equity (if required) Other Current Assets
Shareholder Equity Cash & Bank
Working Capital Non-Controlling Interest
- Working Capital Ratios
- Min. Permissible Bank Finance
Equity (if required)

- IPO / FPO / Rights / PE
- Valuation
- Share Premium
- Stake Dilution
POWER GENERATION
SALES
Capacity MW 80.00
Capacity Mn Kwh 701
Capacity Utilization (PLF) % 90%
Generation Mn kWh 630.72
Auxiliary Consumption % 9.50%
Sales Mn kWh 571
Price / unit Rs./kWh 3.5

Gross Sales Rs. Cr 199.78
RAW MATERIALS
Station Heat Rate Kcal/kWh 3200
GCV of coal Kcal/Kg 3800
Coal Required Kg/kWh 0.84
Total Coal required Mn Kg 531
Total Coal required Mn Tonnes 0.53
Coal Price Rs./tonne 2800

Cost of Coal Rs. Cr 149
TIMELINES
Project Details
Start Date 1-Aug-22
Construction Period 18
Delay 6
End of Construction 31-Jul-24
Start of Commercial Operations 1-Aug-24
First Year of Operations 31-Mar-25
No of Months of Operations 8
Timelines
Quarter ending 30-Sep-22 31-Dec-22 31-Mar-23 30-Jun-23 30-Sep-23 31-Dec-23
FY ending 31-Mar-23 31-Mar-23 31-Mar-23 31-Mar-24 31-Mar-24 31-Mar-24
No of Months of Operations - - - - - -
FY ending 31-Mar-23 31-Mar-24 31-Mar-25 31-Mar-26 31-Mar-27 31-Mar-28

No of Months of Operations - - 8.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
31-Mar-24 30-Jun-24 30-Sep-24 31-Dec-24 31-Mar-25 30-Jun-25 30-Sep-25 31-Dec-25 31-Mar-26 30-Jun-26
31-Mar-24 31-Mar-25 31-Mar-25 31-Mar-25 31-Mar-25 31-Mar-26 31-Mar-26 31-Mar-26 31-Mar-26 31-Mar-27
- - 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
31-Mar-29 31-Mar-30
12.0 12.0
30-Sep-26 31-Dec-26 31-Mar-27 30-Jun-27 30-Sep-27 31-Dec-27 31-Mar-28 30-Jun-28 30-Sep-28 31-Dec-28
31-Mar-27 31-Mar-27 31-Mar-27 31-Mar-28 31-Mar-28 31-Mar-28 31-Mar-28 31-Mar-29 31-Mar-29 31-Mar-29
3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
31-Mar-29 30-Jun-29 30-Sep-29 31-Dec-29 31-Mar-30
31-Mar-29 31-Mar-30 31-Mar-30 31-Mar-30 31-Mar-30
3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
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FINANCIAL MODELING & CORPORATE VALUATION
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FV - FM - Hero MotoCorp - IIM V

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FINANCIAL MODELING & CORPORATE VALUAT

Past Performance Drivers / Assumptions Projected Financials

Valuation Management Dashboard

©This is a ForeVision product

Indian Auto Industry

Two Wheelers Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles Others TOTAL

Domestic Sales Trend

Export Sales Trend

Total Sales Trend

Hero: Segment Market

Product wise Volumes

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep-22

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep-22

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

68.9% 68.0% 62.1%

FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 % change

Sales Volume Volume Growth

Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

Sector Growth (Qty Mn) 2.7% 5.2% 15.5% 6.3%

44112.907117 46549.969843 46494.087635 43627.610564 43438.61103

EBITDA 3,844 4,771 5,098 5,848 5,705

Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

No of Shares (in crs) 19.97 19.97 19.97 19.97 19.98

Net Debt Sales EBITDA

-14.4% -12.1% -2.7% 17.3%

45642.12565 53455.89488 59770.19306 Common Size

Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Sep-22

166 285 317 439

5,786 5,551 5,354 5,185

4,709 6,225 5,870 4,313

19.98 19.98 19.98 19.98

0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04

2.02 1.75 1.91 1.73

45,642 53,456 59,770 62,468

PAT EBITDA PAT ND / ND / Selling Price /

Sector Growth (Qty Mn) 2.7% 5.2% 15.5%

Sector Sales (Mn) 18.43 18.94 19.93 23.02

Avg. Selling Price (Rs) 40,323 42,019 41,863 39,081

- Spare Parts (as % of Total Sales) 7.8% 8.3% 8.3% 7.8%

- Spare Parts (as % of 2W Sales) 8.5% 9.2% 9.2% 8.7%

Other Income (% of sales) 1.7% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6%

Employee Cost (% of sales) 4.03% 4.35% 4.62% 4.78%

Depreciation (% of FA) 11% 10% 11%

Qty Sales 2.11 2.13 1.80 1.78

Raw Material Cost

9.43 9.10 9.53 9.53

24.46 20.94 18.40 17.91 20.77 23.48 25.82

38,379 39,508 46,315 49,643 52,827 55,997 59,077

8.3% 10.0% 10.3% 13.5% 14.0% 14.5% 15.0%

9.4% 11.5% 11.9% 16.2% 16.9% 17.6% 18.3%

2.0% 2.5% 1.8% 1.9% 0.85% 0.85% 0.85%

69.0% 67.8% 70.2% 70.8%

5.23% 6.46% 6.30% 6.75% 6.4% 6.0% 5.6%

12% 14% 10% 10%

Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25

9.4 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5

Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21

1.84 1.69 1.54 1.33 0.56 1.81 1.85 1.57

Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21

Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21

1 Capacity * Utilization Unutilized capacity, No upda

Correl R square Hero growth linked to sector

2,000.00 870.00 43.50% Q1 call transcripts