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Facilitating the implementation of neural network-based predictive control to

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DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.125703

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 Energy 263 (2023) 125703

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy

Facilitating the implementation of neural network-based predictive control

to optimize building heating operation
Marjan Savadkoohi *, Marcel Macarulla, Miquel Casals
Department of Project and Construction Engineering (DPCE), Group of Construction Research and Innovation (GRIC), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC),
Colom, 11, Ed. TR5, 08222, Terrassa, Barcelona, Spain

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Simple neural network (NN) architecture is a reliable tool to transform reactive rule-based systems into pre­
Neural network dictive systems. Thermal comfort is of utmost importance in office buildings, which need the activation of
Historical data heating systems at an optimal time. A high-performance NN predictive system requires a large training dataset.
HVAC systems
This can limit system efficiency due to the lack of enough historical data derived from thermal controllers. To
Building energy optimization
Predictive control
address this issue, we generated, trained and tested a dataset of eight sizes using a calibrated building model. A
Set-point set of key performance indicators (KPIs) was improved by studying the output performance. The effect of
normalization and standardization preprocessing techniques on NN prediction ability was studied. Learning
curves showed that a minimum of 1–4 months of data are required to obtain enough accuracy. Two heating
seasons provide the optimal data size to calibrate the NN properly with high prediction accuracy. The results also
revealed that building data from ≥two years slightly improve NN performance. The most accurate results in KPIs
( ≥ 90%) were obtained with preprocessed data. The effect of preprocessing on large training patterns was less
than that of training patterns <100. Finally, NN model performance was less accurate in cold climate zones.

collected by BEMS to predict the optimum heating timing. Afram et al.

1. Introduction
Despite the growing interest of researchers in the development of
model predictive control (MPC), the application of these techniques is
still limited in real buildings and has not yet been generalized [1–6].
After a literature review of the most relevant articles in the field, the
main barriers and challenges encountered by professionals of building
energy management systems (BEMSs) can be summarized as: (i) a lack of
extensive building operational data [5,7–10], (ii) a lack of fundamental
knowledge and expertise [3,5], (iii) a lack of appropriate, user-friendly
infrastructure [3] and (iv) a lack of justified cost and benefits [10],
considering limited financial resources [5,6,11].
To tackle these challenges, control strategies based on a simple
neural network (NN) with a basic architecture of 3–5 inputs, 1–2 hidden
layers, and 1 output have become a promising approach [12–21]. They
have been widely used to obtain knowledge from stored data and
transform current reactive rule-based systems into predictive systems
that could forecast future scenarios to optimize building operations [17,
22,23]. The following are representative studies that incorporated the
use of the NN predictive control system to optimize HVAC operations.
Jang et al. [21] developed an NN-based prediction model using data
[22] developed and simulated an NN-based MPC controller that was
compared to fixed set-points to analyze the potential energy saving.
Sampaio et al. [4] applied an MPC approach that predicts building heat
load and indoor temperature for tertiary sector buildings by optimizing
set-point temperature.
Accordingly, a NN can be applied to manage boiler operation in
buildings. It determines the optimal start time of HVAC systems by
utilizing BEMS data according to climatic conditions. Therefore it serves
to achieve the expected thermal comfort levels when building occupants
arrive in their workplace [12,18,21,24]. By way of example, Yang et al.
[12,13] developed an optimized NN model to determine the optimal
start time for a heating and cooling system in office buildings. Moon
et al. [14–17] employed NN algorithms for the optimal application of set
back and control of heating systems to improve thermal comfort and
energy efficiency in different buildings. Macarulla et al. [18] used NN
predictive control for boilers in a commercial building energy man­
agement system. Drgoňa et al. [19] introduced well-performing model
predictive control for the building’s HVAC systems. Katic et al. [20]
presented NN predictive control for personalized heating systems.
In recent years, several relevant research trends have been published
that focus on the context of predictive control and its impact on energy

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: marjan.savadkoohi@upc.edu (M. Savadkoohi).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125703
Received 4 May 2022; Received in revised form 12 September 2022; Accepted 8 October 2022
Available online 13 October 2022
0360-5442/© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
M. Savadkoohi et al.
Nomenclature
Symbols
Aw Window area
bNHi Bias of hidden layers
Ce Envelope heat capacity
Ch Heater heat capacity
Ci Interior heat capacity
Lwi Weight of each neuron
NH Number of hidden layers
Ni Number of neurons
Ph Energy flux
Pi Periods
Ps Global irradiance
Rea Ambient thermal resistance
Rie Interior thermal resistance
Rih Interior thermal resistance
Ta External temperature [◦ C]
Td Desired temperature [◦ C]
efficiency and thermal comfort. The benefits of NN optimization control
over manual scheduled-based control are reliable and accurate predic­
tion, ease of implementation, energy savings in the range of 15–50%,
and improving thermal comfort [21,25–29].
However, the application of NN is challenged by the lack of historical
data needed to train the NN [9,30]. NN models are limited to the data
volume and quality, so a large amount of real-world historical data from
different seasons of the year are needed to train the building model [7].
For instance, Moon et al. [16] used 45 datasets for the optimized NN
model. Yang et al. [12] optimized the NN by learning 100 datasets over
three months. Macarulla et al. [18] obtained 145 datasets over six
months to train the NN to implement predictive control. About 300
datasets obtained over two months were used by Jang et al. [21] to train
an NN model to predict the optimum heating timing. Nevertheless, how
much data is needed to train a NN is still unknown and remains an open
question. To overcome the limitations of the existing literature, it is
critical to study data dimensionality. This can lead to obtaining more
accurate results with less temporal and computational cost.
Another relevant issue observed in previous studies is that most re­
searchers consider data preprocessing a requirement to improve NN
control performance [12,13,18,21,24]. Basically, data collected from
smart meters and sensors do not have sufficient quality due to outliers
and noises. As a result, prediction accuracy needs to be improved by data
preprocessing techniques. Preprocessing is an essential step before
applying machine-learning methods to ensure a model’s quality and
high performance [31].
Conditioning of data (i.e., preprocessing data techniques such as
normalization or standardization) raises the question of extra effort,
considering cost versus benefits [32]. It makes NN modeling more
robust, reduces the effects of variance on any type of NN model and
increases the model’s prediction accuracy [31,33].
Nevertheless, it remains unclear how well data processing methods
can influence data sizes. In addition, an analytical comparison of pre­
processing data techniques has not been formulated. Therefore, the ef­
fects of data preprocessing should be investigated to confirm whether
the method that is chosen is appropriate or not, considering the amount
of data required in an NN control system to optimize the boiler operation
set-point.
To bridge the gap between documenting field validations and data
availability and utilization [5,34], the use of a simplified control system
based on NN must be facilitated and generalized. More precisely,
existing studies have no guidelines to identify the amount of data
required to train an NN control system. In addition, there is no
2
Energy 263 (2023) 125703
Ti Average internal temperature [◦ C]
tp Time prediction to condition the building
tr Time remaining to the next working day
wNHi, j Weights of hidden layers
Greek letters
ΔT Difference between Tcomf and Ti [◦ C]
Abbreviations
BEMS Building energy management system
HAVC Heating, ventilation, air conditioning
KPIs Key performance indicators
MPC Model predictive control
NN Neural network
NTP Number of training patterns
PSL Point of stop learning
PSOL Point of starting an online learning
RC Resistor capacitance
RMSE Root mean square error
validation method to examine preprocessing data techniques and their
performance in an NN control system.
This necessity is associated with the importance of facilitation to
achieve deployment of predictive controls at large scale, which is
considered as a viable solution for occupants’ comfort and energy effi­
ciency. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the amount of data
required to train an NN control system is selected in a certain proportion
in most previous studies. Larger training sets are mostly recommended.
These increase building facility management costs and the risk of com­
plex building services, and are highly dependent on software, automa­
tion, control and sensors [35].
For this purpose, this research aimed to determine the optimal
amount of data required to better train a simple architecture of NN
control for preconditioning time in office buildings. In addition, the need
for data preprocessing is evaluated and discussed. This objective covers
smart-ready services (i.e., run-time management of HVAC systems),
which are aligned with the smart readiness indicator rating [36].
To study the impact of preprocessing techniques on NN prediction,
two common methods of normalization and standardization are selected
to explore the effect of preprocessed inputs on the proposed NN model.
Data preprocessing, in which data are transformed to reduce the impact
of variance of the model, is used due to the sensitivity of NN models to
the scale of the inputs and output [31]. In addition, key performance
indicators (KPIs) provide evidence of the optimal data required to obtain
a calibrated NN with enough accuracy to be implemented in a building
and manage its boiler. Moreover, the proposed approach is applicable in
actual buildings that require only the simple architecture of the NN
model. It quantifies the data used by the control system and improves its
generalization capability, with less computational cost and prior
knowledge to work with.
The remaining sections of this paper are structured as follows: Sec­
tion 2 provides details of the methodology. Section 3 presents the results
and discusses the number of cases required to train the NN and the
performance of the proposed control system. Section 4 summarizes the
conclusions and trends for future studies.
2. Methodology
This section describes the methodology used to analyze the data
required to train NN-based control. The method used in this paper is
presented in Fig. 1. First, historical data for one building was generated
using four heating seasons of meteorological data and a calibrated,
validated model. Second, the historical data was split into eight periods
M. Savadkoohi et al. Energy 263 (2023) 125703

Table 1
Parameters of NN.
Classification Parameter values

Ni: number of hidden layers 1

NH: number of hidden 10
neurons
NTP: number of training 22-44-88-175-330-525-650-1954
patterns
Training algorithm Adam optimization algorithm
Input values - Ambient temperature (Ta)
- Internal temperature (Ti)
- Increase in temperature ΔT
Output value - Target value (y = Tp Time predicted)
Iteration 100
Activation function Hyperbolic tangent function: tanh(x) = (ex – e-x)/
(ex + e-x)

(Pi) with different lengths of time (see Table 2). Then, the NN structure
was fitted for each period to generate eight scenarios. Finally, the
trained NN models were implemented in the building model using a new
year of meteorological data to evaluate the performance. The prediction
errors and KPIs were used to assess the model’s performance in different
NN control scenarios.

2.1. Generation of historical data

The building model used in this study is the third-order model pre­
sented by Bacher and Madsen [37], with a heating control system based
on a schedule and a thermostat. The model represents an existing
building model named FlexHouse located in Denmark, which is well
developed and extended by Giretti et al. [38]. It is used as an abstract
tool to represent the building’s thermal behavior and better describe the
building dynamics in the dataset [39] and to test the proposed control
system in this study. The use of third-order models has been emphasized
in other studies to model building heat dynamics [40,41]. In fact, this is
a sufficiently calibrated model that was validated in previous studies
and is feasible with the available data [37,38,42–44]. This modeling
approach provides a quick evaluation of building energy performance
that requires simple inputs [45]. The models better describe the building
dynamics in the dataset [39]. Notably, increasing the complexity of the
building model does not always guarantee a satisfactory increase in
performance [46]. Accordingly, a sufficient model could be key to
developing a user-friendly applicable control system.
The thermal model is based on a resistor-capacitance (RC) network
analogy with the structure presented in Fig. 2. The model is formulated
for separate building parts to simulate the indoor temperature:

- Interior: the interior represents the indoor air, modeled as heat ca­
pacity (Ci).
- Heater: the heater is the element that provides heat to the interior of
the building. This part is modeled as heat capacity (Ch), thermal
resistance to the interior (Rih) and energy flux (Ph). In this study, the
heater energy flux is controlled with a schedule for system operation
Fig. 1. Research methodology diagram.
and a feedback control signal to implement thermostatic control of
the heating system on indoor temperature (Ti).
- Solar: the solar part represents the heat input from solar radiation
Table 2
and is modeled by global irradiance (Ps) multiplied by the effective Proposed scenarios.
window area (Aw).
Scenario Heating season Month Training patterns
- Envelope: the envelope represents the physical separator between
the conditioned and unconditioned environment of the building. 1 0.125 1 22
This element is modeled with a heat capacity (Ce) and thermal 2 0.25 2 44
3 0.5 4 88
resistance to the interior (Rie) and the ambient (Rea). 4 1 8 175
- Ambient: the ambient represents the exterior of the building and is 5 2 16 330
indicated by the ambient air temperature (Ta). 6 3 24 525
7 4 32 650
8 11.1 88 1955
The conceptual structure of the reduced-order model was imple­
mented in the Modelica simulation-based environment using the

3
M. Savadkoohi et al.
Fig. 2. Conceptual schema of the thermal building model.
Modelica Thermal library [47] (see Fig. 3). The Modelica model was
arranged into four main components: building, heating system, control
system and weather. The building component implements the concep­
tual schema’s interior, solar and envelope parts (see Fig. 2). The heating
system block implements the element heater from the conceptual
schema in Fig. 2. The control system implements the system operation
schedule to regulate the on/off switch and a thermostat to regulate the
heat gain. It follows the desired set-points using the on/off controller
component from the Modelica library with a bandwidth of 0.5 ◦ C.
Finally, the weather component provides solar radiation and external
temperature. In this study, four years of climatic data (2015–2019) were
obtained from Meteocat for a location in Catalunya “Vila-rodona auto­
matic operational station (DQ)” (Dades de l’estació automàtica
Vila-rodona | Meteocat). Climate data is used to simulate the interior
temperature of the building. Vila-rodona is located in a warm Mediter­
ranean climate zone in the province of Tarragona. The average
maximum and minimum temperature of this location has been reported
at 21.7 ◦ C and 10.7 respectively with global solar radiation of 16.5
MJ/m2 [48]. Data consisting of time series climate variables were
recorded as follows:
- Ta: ambient temperature (◦ C)
- Ps: global solar radiation (W/m2)
The daily operation of a building’s energy manager was simulated by
applying fixed schedule control. The building was considered occupied
Fig. 3. Modelica structure with scheduled base control.
4
Energy 263 (2023) 125703
during working hours from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. and assumed to be unoc­
cupied on weekends. Within occupied hours, the boiler schedule was set
manually. Before starting the working day’s operation, it turns on to
meet thermal comfort requirements using a scheduled on/off control
system. Based on the simulation, the boiler’s schedule was adjusted to
ensure thermal comfort at the beginning of the working day and to
achieve the desired temperature of 21 ± 0.5 (see Fig. 3). According to
Thermal Environmental Conditions for Human Occupancy and the
adaptive comfort model of ASHRAE 55–2020 [49] (https://www.ashra
e.org), a desired thermal comfort level is recommended between the
lower and upper set-point temperature (Tcomf = 19.5–24.5). The internal
temperature was simulated using the calibrated model and the meteo­
rological data.
2.2. Development of neural network prediction model
The NN model was used to determine the time needed to condition
the building (Tp) to manage the boiler schedule. Although the choice of
input data, neurons and hidden layers are critical aspects, there is no
science for this, and it is a matter of trial and error [50]. This study used
a simple NN architecture proposed by Macarulla et al. [18] as a starting
point, as shown in (Fig. 4). It consists of one output, the time needed to
condition the building at the desired temperature; one hidden layer (Ni)
with ten neurons; and three inputs, the average internal temperature
(Ti), the external temperature (Ta) and the difference between the
desired temperature and the current internal temperature (ΔT) (see
M. Savadkoohi et al. Energy 263 (2023) 125703

(Ticur − MeanTi )
Input1 = (6)
stdTi

tp = output × stdtr + Meantr (7)

The data generated in the previous section were divided into eight
timing periods (Pi) (see Table 2) to obtain a database to create training
patterns to train the NN control-based model. The training data included
the input and target output values used to begin training a NN control
system [24]. The number of training patterns to train the NN model were
22, 44, 88, 175, 330, 525, 650 and 1955. This means one month of data
equals 22 training patterns, since one training pattern was created from
each day. For each scenario (Pi) in Table 2, 70% of the data were used for
training, comprised of Ta, Ti, Tp, and ΔT. The remaining 30% of the data
were used for testing and validation to assess the performance of the
Fig. 4. Implemented NN structure. trained NN. At the end of this process, eight NN models were obtained to
manage boiler set-point.
Table 1). Larger training datasets decrease the probability of overfitting [20],
This NN model’s optimization factors are learning rate, number of while the generation of a suitable amount of data will overcome the
hidden layers, number of nodes and bias [12]. NHi boxes are the limitation of using historical data [20,52]. Finally, more 7-heating sea­
weighted sum of the three inputs and the bias. Each NHi box has its sons of data were generated with an unsynchronized meteorological
weights (wNHi,j) and bias (bNHi) Eq. (1). The activation function is the data calendar and the boiler’s calendar (see Fig. 5). This means that the
hyperbolic tangent of each NHi, which is calculated using Eq. (2). Then, boiler’s calendar remained constant (i.e., Day 1 became Day 1), and the
the output was calculated as the sum of the multiplication of 10 neurons meteorological data’s calendar was shifted one day (i.e., Day 1 became
by the weight of each neuron (Lwi ) and the bias Eq. (3). Day 2). This process was completed twice more to create scenario
number 8 in Table 2.
∑
3
( )
NHi = inputj × WNHi,j + bNHi (1)
j=1
2.3. Implementation in simulated scenarios

eNHi − e− NHi The initial model (Fig. 3) was modified from a scheduled system to
tanhi = (2) an intelligent NN control system with an NN algorithm and a thermostat
eNHi + e− NHi

inside a Modelica simulation-based environment. This proposed model

∑
10
output = (tanhi × Lwi ) + boutput (3)
i=1
Scikit-learn and Keras, which are python libraries for machine
learning, were applied to create the structure of the NN and calculate the
weight of the layers. The more optimal the coefficients, the better the
prediction results, which are determined by training algorithms such as
the back propagation-learning algorithm. To update network weights
based on training data, the Adam optimization algorithm was used to
minimize the errors of the predicted values.
Data preprocessing techniques are effective and widely applied to
clean datasets [33], reduce modeling errors [32] and identify outliers,
since outliers must be filtered out from input variables [51]. For this
reason, this model investigated the impact of preprocessing of input
values to train the NN. It evaluated the model’s performance using
original unscaled data to learn the NN and compare the results with
preprocessed data. It is essential to mention that when the input is
preprocessed, the output will have to be preprocessed during training
and postprocessed when the NN will make predictions with that
approach. In this step, two data preprocessing techniques were used
considering outlier data, which could be part of historical data, to train
the model:
- Normalization transforms the input values to the interval [0, 1] (see
Eq. (4)) and the output to its main range (see Eq. (5)).
(Ticur − Timin )
Input1 = (4)
(Timax − Timin )
tp = output × (trmax − trmin ) + trmin (5)
- Standardization transforms the input values to a range with zero
mean and a standard deviation of 1 (see Eq. (6) and (7)).
dynamically schedules the boiler to predict the required time to achieve
thermal comfort at the start of the next working day.
To implement NN in simulated scenarios, the proposed control al­
gorithm (see Fig. 6) was implemented in a Modelica simulation-based
environment using the components in Fig. 7. It was calculated in 30-
min time steps to carry out the predictive control.
Fig. 7 comprises the NN model’s installation to predict the heating
system’s running time. This model was conducted according to the
following components in Modelica. First, inputs to the NN model needed
to be presented to proceed with the prediction. The variables contem­
plated in this study as inputs were:
- Indoor temperature: internal temperature is retrieved from the
thermostatic control system simulation.
- Ambient temperature: this variable is obtained from meteorological
data of the automatic operational station.
- Set-point: the heating set-point is a scheduler that controls and
maintains the indoor temperature in office buildings at the desired
temperature of 21 ◦ C. It is regarded as an input variable of the NN
predictive model.
- Time remaining: this schedule is assumed to be the time remaining
(tr) to start the next working day. It is considered an input of the NN
control system. The prediction is compared with the time remaining
until the start of the next working day.
- Boiler rest: this schedule is considered an input to turn off the boiler
at the end of the working day (6 p.m.), to reduce energy
consumption.
Modelica components to implement the proposed control system are
as follows:
- NN control system: NN control was designed for predictive purposes
to achieve the optimal start time for the heating system. The
controller uses the predefined NN model structure to predict the time

5
M. Savadkoohi et al.
Fig. 5. Process of data generation.
Fig. 6. Proposed control algorithm flow chart. (Tp) predicted time, (Ta)
ambient temperature, (Ti) indoor temperature and (ΔT) the difference between
the desired temperature and the current internal temperature.
required to condition the building before starting the occupied
hours. This control system compares the output of the NN model (tp)
with the time remaining (tr). If tp > tr, the result will be true to turn
on the boiler.
- Thermostat: the thermostat setting ensures the comfort level in the
building compared to the desired temperature of 21 ◦ C. Set-point and
simulated indoor temperature are defined input values in the ther­
mostat control system.
- Switch 1: this object is a conditional controller. This switch will shut
down the boiler when the object “boiler rest” is true. Otherwise, it
will turn on or off according to the NN condition.
- Switch 2: this object represents when the boiler should be turned on,
then the thermostat regulates the power (Ti < 21 ± 0.5 ◦ C).
- Switch 3: in this object, exclusively, the conversion of the Boolean to
the real input occurs using the constant values of zero and one. This
6
Energy 263 (2023) 125703
follows the final command issued in Switch 2 because all three
switches operate consecutively.
Finally, the output is defined:
- Control action: the final command is to turn the boiler on or off. If
both the conditions are met, the boiler will be turned on to start
heating. Otherwise, the same procedure will be repeated at a 30-min
interval to ultimately find the optimal starting point.
The trained NN model in Section 2.2 was implemented in the model
presented in Fig. 7, by applying the Modelica FMU library package as a
simulator. NN-trained scenarios (see Table 2) were assessed using a new
heating season of meteorological data to evaluate their performance.
Modelica model setups vary for each scenario. Thus, the NN structure
needs to be updated since the weights of the NN are different for each
scenario (see Fig. 7).
2.4. Key performance indicators to assess the performance of neural
network control
To evaluate the performance of NN control in simulated scenarios,
the models were validated using a dataset one heating season different
from those used to train the NN. In this section, KPIs were defined to
represent the performance of the NN control system (Table 3), consid­
ering the number of training patterns that directly affect them.
The KPIs used in this study assessed the performance of the NN
controls trained with different sizes of training patterns as follows:
- Time with comfort %: is the duration of time in terms of hours on
working days (Monday to Friday from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.) when the
indoor temperature is between the range 19.5 and 24.5 ◦ C.
- Time with desired temperature %: is the duration of time in terms of
hours on working days (Monday to Friday from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
when the indoor temperature is in the desired temperature range (Td
= 21 ± 0.5).
- Days with start comfort %: the number of working days (Monday to
Friday) when we achieve comfort (Tcomf = 19.5–24.5) at the begin­
ning of working hour 8 a.m.
- Days with a start desired temperature %: is the number of working
days (Monday to Friday) when the indoor temperature is in the
desired temperature range (k = 21 ± 0.5) at the beginning of
working hour 8 a.m.
- Root Mean Square Error (RMSE):
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∑
RMSE = (Actual time − Predicted time)2 (8)
Eq. (8) defined the actual time as the real-time required to achieve
the desired temperature before starting the working hour when the
boiler is turned on. Meanwhile, the predicted time is the time predicted
by the NN control system to turn on the boiler to achieve the desired
temperature before the start of the working hour.
M. Savadkoohi et al.
Fig. 7. Control system component with the implementation of NN control.
Table 3
KPIs to assess NN implementations.
KPIs Description
1 Time with comfort %
2 Time with desired temperature %
3 Days with start comfort %
4 Days with a start desired temperature %
5 Root mean square error (RMSE)
2.5. Climate data for neural network model validation
Indeed, the knowledge of local weather data is the boundary con­
dition and key input parameter of building energy modeling [45].
Owing to the fact that the reference building model in this study is a
reduced third-order model, developed on Modelica libraries that are
based on the reduced-order calculation method, we overcome the
challenges and limitations by the use of data-driven models that are
limited to a specific location and building type.
To test the performance of the proposed NN control system, the
simulated model carried out in different climate typologies (i.e., Boí
“cold Mediterranean”, Malgrat de Mar “warm Mediterranean” and
Girona “mild Mediterranean”), one year of climate data “heating
7
Energy 263 (2023) 125703
season” was used for the same period (2019–2020) from meteo.cat, the
Meteorological Service of Catalonia in Spain. Data consist of time series
climate variables recorded as Ta “ambient temperature (◦ C)” and Ps
“global solar radiation (W/m2)”. The average maximum and minimum
temperature of Boí were reported as 5.9 and − 0.2 ◦ C respectively with
global solar radiation of 15.9 MJ/m2 [53]. Furthermore, in Malgrat de
Mar, the average maximum and minimum temperature were reported as
21.2 and 10.4 ◦ C respectively with global solar radiation of 16 MJ/m2
[54]. In Girona these values were 22.8 and 7.7 ◦ C, corresponding with
global solar radiation of 15.5 MJ/m2 [55].
3. Results & discussion
The current work analyzes the results of simulation and optimization
scenarios implemented through preliminary tests. The key contributions
of this research are summarized as follows.
All KPIs follow the same trend in terms of performance in general.
The results indicate that increasing the number of training patterns
improves the model’s efficiency. Therefore, the dimensionality of data is
significantly important to enhance the model’s prediction, precision and
accuracy. The learning curve of efficiency and performance of the NN
model remained convergent in all preprocessing techniques when
training patterns were ≥ 330. This value can be considered as the data
M. Savadkoohi et al. Energy 263 (2023) 125703

size threshold required to achieve a high predictive system.

Accordingly, Table 4 illustrates the identified outliers’ results and the
classified categories of all KPI variables in three scenarios. Each scenario
was implemented and tested by the proposed NN model to investigate
how data preprocessing approaches and data dimensionality affect the
model’s performance. The red highlighted area indicates a lower per­
centage of desirability with fewer data points (i.e., 22–88 training pat­
terns). The desirability percentage increases with a medium amount of
data in the yellow highlighted areas. Finally, the green areas indicate a
remarkable decrease in the rate of desirability variation and an increase
in data convergence. The behavior of scalers on the dataset shows that
the outlier proportions decline in each scenario due to increasing data.
The results also show that the classified categories are reasonable and
consistent in this study. Better results were observed in the unscaled
method in general for the KPI variables. However, the measurements
only differ slightly in the values, and the improvement varies for
different preprocessing techniques. The detailed results show that with
varying lengths of historical data, the prediction accuracy increases, but
RMSE does not vary significantly with the difference in preprocessing
techniques. Generally, Table 4 shows that the model can obtain the most Fig. 8. NN control system convergence process.
accurate results in terms of KPIs ≥ 90% with normalized and stan­
dardized data. Then, the results demonstrated that the two strategies do not recommended to implement the control system based on NN in a
not improve the accuracy of models in this study. To conclude, the building because the performance of the system is low; (ii) a region
model’s performance with a more significant amount of data leads to when the control system based on NN can be implemented in a building
growing and fluctuating patterns. This can eventually result in the but should continue to be trained, and (iii) the last region that is when
predictive system’s convergence and desirability. the control system based on NN reaches its maximum performance, and
In particular, Fig. 8 displays the data presented in Table 4. The the training should stop to avoid generalization problems.
“ideal” learning curve has two relevant points: (1) PSOL, the point of More specifically, when the NN model needs to be implemented
starting online learning, and (2) PSL, the point of stopping learning. without a large amount of historical data, reduced-order models should
PSOL occurs when the accuracy of the NN predictions is enough to be be built to create adequate training data. This guarantees prediction
implemented in a building but there is potential for improvement. Ac­ accuracy [56]. Therefore, it is expected that the NN model could be
cording to the results, PSOL occurs in the range of 1–4 months of data. At trained with fewer data samples in the absence of sufficient historical
this point, all KPIs are over 80%. PSL occurs in two years of historical data.
data (16 months) when the KPIs achieve their maximum value (around The effect of the two kinds of data-preprocessing techniques was
90%). These two points delimitate three regions: (i) a region when it is investigated in the proposed NN control system. Table 4 compares the

Table 4
KPIs and error comparison in different scenarios.

8
M. Savadkoohi et al.
KPI results of each technique to determine the efficiency of the proposed
control strategy. Standardization and normalization techniques illus­
trate a sharp increase (see Fig. 9). This is to be expected, as the need for
data preprocessing on a limited number of training patterns (<100)
significantly increases the model’s accuracy compared to a model
without scaling. In addition, where the number of training patterns in­
creases, its effectiveness in achieving the desired result was reduced and
caused a slight increase with no particular growth in accuracy.
Furthermore, the results presented in Table 4 were plotted in Fig. 10.
On the left, the scatter plot shows the calculation of the predicted time to
achieve the desired temperature at the start of the working hours.
Highlighted red points are the outliers that represent R-squared (R2) in
this regression model. The maximum and minimum values represent
data outliers based on the calculated errors. Different parameters such as
global maximum, global minimum and highlighted errors can be
determined within a given range of box plots in various scenarios.
Accordingly, we obtained Max = 0.78, Min = − 1.2 in unscaled sce­
narios, Max = 1.1, Min = − 1.4 in standardized scenarios, and Max = 1.5,
Min = − 1.3 in normalized scenarios. Among eight scenarios, the
reduction in the number of outliers was visible by increasing the number
of training patterns.
On the right side of the scatter plot, the error points indicate the
trend of errors in one scenario obtained from the validation data simu­
lation. The positive errors reveal that predicted values are less than the
time required to achieve the desired temperature in real conditions.
When the boiler was turned on late due to a prediction error, we could
not reach the desired temperature of 21 ◦ C before working hours started
in the morning. In this case, negative errors occurred when the NN
predicted more time and the boiler was turned on earlier. Thus, the
desired temperature was achieved before the start of the working hours.
Moreover, the errors were mainly within the large horizon pre­
dictions (ΔT), considering the fact that the optimal set-point was greatly
affected by external temperature. Fig. 11 shows the monthly errors
based on the external temperature. Outlier data were found in
December, January and February and on weekends in Oct and May since
the predicted values differed from the actual values. They mainly
occurred in December, January and February due to the lowest ambient
temperature. An analysis of the errors revealed that we are losing per­
formance accuracy mostly on Mondays since the boiler was turned off
Fig. 9. Performance of preprocessing techniques.
9
Energy 263 (2023) 125703
over the weekends. As a result, the internal temperature is lower than
expected to achieve comfort at the start of working hours on Monday
(large horizon predictions, ΔT). Therefore, it is crucial to suggest mea­
sures to reduce the number of errors on Mondays. This problem will be
tackled by generating more training patterns to improve performance on
Monday mornings. More data enables NN to deal with accurate pre­
dictions in the set-point temperature to prevent a large amount of energy
consumption and higher discomfort values.
Advanced control systems such as NN-based controls admittedly
have limitations and are also dependent on weather conditions and
building types. This control system operates reasonably in similar office
buildings, which tend to be occupied during working hours with similar
heating conditions. Using a simulated building model compared to a real
environment, the model prediction performance and accuracy could
operate differently. The complexity of the NN model is not too high,
although real building systems hardly obtain data [4]. The most chal­
lenging limitation to conducting a real-world trial is the time needed to
store the real desirable data to implement a satisfactory NN control
system. Other climatology may affect the field validation of the NN
model in real buildings. To move beyond the obstacles and facilitate the
data requirements, this study advises the need for one to four months of
data to apply MPC to reach the stage of demonstration in real buildings.
Predicting the performance of buildings as complex energy systems is
full of uncertainties [57]. This is because the simulation of building
models is sophisticated, especially in the absence of real-world
measured data. Therefore, most results rely on the model’s uncertain
data inputs and precision [58]. To compare the findings of this study
with other building typologies and to verify whether the model perfor­
mance is limited to a specific location and building type, a reduced-order
building description as a benchmark model of building energy simula­
tion can be used for future studies to demonstrate NN-based control’s
effectiveness in managing heating systems. This study proposes a
comprehensive analysis of data preprocessing methods and the effects
on training patterns with different time durations. Furthermore, the
potential results of the simulated building model and its validation in
different climate zones have been analyzed. Previous studies focused on
a single topic: the application of several types of predictive control
systems in residential and non-residential buildings with a certain pro­
portion of historical data. In contrast, this study helps to break the
barrier of the use of NN control system performance and to promote the
actual application of advanced control systems.
As can be seen in Fig. 12, to compare the performance of NN-based
control in different locations and climate zones, and to verify the re­
sults through simulation and historical climate data, the proposed NN
control system was applied to examine the KPIs’ variation. The NN
model was validated for a similar heating season of the year for three
new climate zones. The validation results revealed that in a warm
climate, in Malgrat de Mar (WT), the proposed NN control was well
regulated and operated efficiently (RMSE = 0.37). This was also true in
Girona in a mild climate (RMSE = 0.70). The performance of the NN
control system in a cold climate zone, Boí (Z2), was not as efficient as in
a warm climate (RMSE = 2.32). In addition, these results demonstrate
the effect of ambient temperature on the accuracy of the control system,
which is aligned with previous studies [18,21]. There are some possible
reasons for these results, including a low number of training patterns in
colder months or climates, as the events observed on Mondays. Fig. 13
indicates that in cold climates, variance increases when a longer time
horizon is predicted, which is highlighted by the red error lines in hours.
The NN model learns with a wide variance initially, and does not in­
crease as noticeably as the warm climate. In a cold climate, larger pre­
dictions caused underestimation and the performance of the model
decreased due to the observed KPIs.
4. Conclusion
This study discussed the optimal amount of data required to train a
M. Savadkoohi et al.
Fig. 10. Error comparison by month of the year.
Fig. 11. Monthly errors based on external temperature.
Fig. 12. Performance of the control system with validation data in different
climates, (KPI 1) time with comfort, (KPI 2) time with desired temperature, (KPI
3) days with start comfort and (KPI 4) days with a start desired temperature.
simple architecture of NN control to facilitate the implementation of
predictive controls. For this purpose, a calibrated building model was
used to implement an NN control system. The NN control turns on the
boiler each day at an optimum time. This can provide the expected
10
Energy 263 (2023) 125703
thermal comfort levels when occupants of the building arrive at their
workplace. Eight NN models were trained using various training pat­
terns of different time duration, which were implemented and tested in
the calibrated building model. Then, a set of KPIs was used to assess each
NN model’s performance. In addition, three data preprocessing ap­
proaches were presented and compared to demonstrate model perfor­
mance in each KPI. From the authors’ perspective, the results of the
study revealed that:
• Followed by a discussion about the association between the amount
of data required and NN control performance, an NN control system
requires a minimum of 1–4 months of historical data to obtain
enough accuracy to be implemented in buildings and two years of
historical data to obtain the maximum performance. More than two
years of historical data improves the performance of the NN. How­
ever, the improvement is only slight.
• According to the results of this study, to the best of the authors’
knowledge, preprocessing of data increases the performance of NN
control when the training patterns are more minor (<100). However,
it could help to enhance the accuracy of the NN prediction model.
Data preprocessing techniques should be employed with circum­
spection and are not always recommended. They do not improve NN
control’s performance with large datasets based on the obtained
results.
• The results also revealed that NN control underestimates the time
required to heat the building on Mondays in colder months. This is
due to the existing low number of training patterns to learn the
system’s dynamics and thus enable large horizon predictions. In
addition, the influence of the number of training patterns varies for
different days of the week. The proposed NN control system operates
intelligently during working days by performing predictions
considering the time remaining until the start of the next day. In this
case, the sufficient training set volumes improve the prediction
performance on working days. Further research is required to
investigate whether NN controls can improve performance in large
horizon predictions.
• From the validation results, it can be concluded that the performance
of NN control model in a cold climate zone is not as efficient as in
warm climate. Since the control system is not designed to be adapted
to extreme values with low ambient temperature, it causes lower
accuracy of heating system operation. Overall, in the examined
cases, it is crucial to implement an efficient HVAC control system in
the different climate zones because of changes in heating and cooling
set-point, to avoid excessive temperatures.
Practitioners such as building energy mangers can use the research
results to find out how much historical data is required to implement an
NN control system and if preprocessing techniques are required. Most of
the previous studies on the application of NN to predict the optimal start
time for the heating system focused on developing an optimized NN
model using different amounts of data for training. This study set out to
analyze the optimal amount of data required to train a simple NN model
that works efficiently to predict the time needed for preheating office
buildings. Several of our findings aligned with previous studies
M. Savadkoohi et al. Energy 263 (2023) 125703

Fig. 13. Error comparison of the model performance in different climatology.

conducted in the non-residential context (i.e., office buildings), in which
NN model accuracy depends on the climate, preprocessing of input data
and environmental conditions. We could identify new findings, which
included identifying the minimum relevant required amount of histor­
ical data to facilitate the application of NN controls and improve
building energy efficiency. The scope of this research is limited to
applying a simple NN architecture in BEMS to solve the problem of the
implementation of predictive control for heating systems. Therefore, the
results of this study will contribute to facilitating the implementation of
NN predictive control to predict heating start time and gain thermal
comfort.
CRediT author statement
Marjan Savadkoohi: Writing – original draft, Writing – Review &
editing, Methodology, Formal analysis, Validation, Investigation, Visu­
alization. Marcel Macarulla Marti: Project administration, Conceptu­
alization, Supervision, Review & editing. Miquel Casals Casanova:
Supervision, review.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the support by Catalan agency
AGAUR through their research group support program
(2017SGR00227).
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